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<nav class="crumbs"><a href="../index.html">Sumarizări</a><span class="sep">/</span><a href="../index.html#08_ANALIZA_ZILNICA">Analiză zilnică</a><span class="sep">/</span>#7 — Context de piață: breadth, sentiment, volatilitate, macro</nav><h1 id="analiza-zilnica-7-context-de-piata-breadth-sentiment-volatilitate-macro">Analiză zilnică / #7 — Context de piață: breadth, sentiment, volatilitate, macro</h1>
<h2 id="tldr">TLDR</h2>
<ul>
<li>Înainte de orice idee pe simbol, verifici <strong>piața</strong>: cât din ea urcă de
fapt (breadth, McClellan, advance/decline), cât de speriată e (AAII, Fear &amp;
Greed, VIX), dacă volatilitatea a explodat (ATR) și ce raport macro vine.</li>
<li><strong>Bottom</strong> = majoritatea companiilor sub SMA 10/20, peste 50% sub SMA 50 și
<strong>peste 50% sub SMA 200</strong> (piață bear), McClellan oversold, advance/decline
prăbușit, <strong>ATR în spike</strong>. Cât timp ATR e „în cădere liberă", nu e bottom.</li>
<li><strong>Top</strong> = indicele face vârf nou, dar McClellan face divergență și <strong>RSP</strong>
(equal weight) nu confirmă: piața o duc câteva mega-cap-uri.</li>
<li><strong>VIX îl citești invers</strong>: VIX respins sub fostul suport și lower low =
bine pentru long; higher low pe VIX = risc de nouă cădere.</li>
<li><strong>AAII</strong> e contrarian mai ales la <strong>15-25%</strong> distanță între bullish și
bearish; e pragul ideal, nu o barieră (la ~10-12 puncte citește tot opinie
contrară, mai slab).</li>
<li><strong>NFP</strong> și minuta Fed = volatilitate mare, atenție la tranzacții în jurul
orei. Pe <strong>CPI</strong> nu intri înainte de raport (regula e a mea, vezi finalul).</li>
<li>Contextul nu e trigger. Îți spune <strong>dacă ai voie</strong> să iei trigger-ul și cât
de agresiv.</li>
</ul>
<hr />
<h2 id="de-ce-urmaresti-contextul">De ce urmărești contextul</h2>
<p>Un trigger bun pe o acțiune (buy doji, MBT-10) are aceeași formă într-o
piață care urcă și într-una care se prăbușește. Diferența e cine mai
cumpără după tine. Când 74% din companii sunt sub SMA 10, fondurile vând
tot, fără să aleagă, iar setup-ul tău cade împreună cu restul. Din
17.08:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„când a picat toată piața și aici am avut rejectorul ăstea masive, dacă
înținem BT-10, ați fi scos dacă ați fi intrat"</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Ce decizie te ajută să iei:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>dacă intri</strong> — un long pe acțiune cu McClellan în zero reject și VIX în
higher low e un long împotriva pieței;</li>
<li><strong>cât de mare</strong> — în volatilitate mare stop-ul pe break-even te scoate des
(02.09); poziția mai mică în săptămâna NFP / Jackson Hole e adăugirea mea;</li>
<li><strong>când</strong> — la NFP, atenție la tranzacții în jurul orei (04.09); regula „nu
deschizi înainte de CPI, aștepți ziua raportului" e a mea;</li>
<li><strong>ce direcție</strong> — la top cauți short-uri, la bottom cauți long-uri, nu
invers.</li>
</ul>
<hr />
<h2 id="termenii-o-singura-data">Termenii, o singură dată</h2>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Termen</th>
<th>Ce înseamnă aici</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>market picture</strong></td>
<td>panoul lui cu procentul de companii sub/peste SMA 10/20/50/200, pe fiecare indice, plus McClellan și COT</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>breadth</strong></td>
<td>cât de largă e mișcarea: câte companii participă, nu doar cât a mișcat indicele</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>McClellan Oscillator</strong></td>
<td>oscilator de breadth calculat din avansuri minus declinuri; are linie de zero, zonă de oversold și de overbought</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>zero reject</strong></td>
<td>McClellan pleacă din oversold, urcă la linia de zero și e respins sub ea</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>advance/decline (A/D)</strong></td>
<td>linia cumulată: acțiuni în urcare minus acțiuni în scădere, zi de zi</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>RSP</strong></td>
<td>ETF-ul S&amp;P 500 <strong>equal weight</strong>: fiecare companie are aceeași pondere</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Magnificii</strong></td>
<td>mega-cap-urile (Magnificent 7) care pot duce singure indicele ponderat</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>AAII Survey</strong></td>
<td>sondaj săptămânal al investitorilor individuali: bullish / bearish / neutru</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Fear &amp; Greed</strong></td>
<td>index de sentiment pe cadrane: frică extremă, frică, neutru, lăcomie, lăcomie extremă</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>VIX</strong></td>
<td>volatilitatea implicită pe S&amp;P 500. Crește când piața cade (se cumpără protecție)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>ATR / ATR%</strong></td>
<td>Average True Range: cât se mișcă, în medie, o bară. ATR% e varianta procentuală din platforma lui</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>COT</strong></td>
<td>Commitment of Traders: poziționarea marilor speculatori și a marilor comercianți</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>TLT</strong></td>
<td>ETF pe bond-urile americane pe termen lung. Prețul urcă atunci când randamentul scade</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>locul crimei</strong></td>
<td>un fost swing high spart, care la retest devine suport</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<hr />
<h2 id="ce-se-deseneaza-si-ce-ramane-tabel">Ce se desenează și ce rămâne tabel</h2>
<p><code>svg_candles</code> desenează <strong>preț</strong>. Unii indicatori de aici nu sunt preț:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Indicator</th>
<th>Cum e în document</th>
<th>De ce</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>breadth pe SMA 10/20/50/200</td>
<td><strong>tabel</strong></td>
<td>e un procent din companii, o singură cifră pe zi per medie, nu o serie OHLC</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>McClellan</td>
<td><strong>tabel</strong></td>
<td>oscilator în jurul lui zero; o diagramă de candele l-ar falsifica</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>advance/decline</td>
<td><strong>tabel</strong></td>
<td>linie cumulată, nu are open/high/low/close</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>AAII, Fear &amp; Greed</td>
<td><strong>tabel</strong></td>
<td>sondaje / scor 0-100, săptămânal sau zilnic</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>COT</td>
<td><strong>tabel</strong></td>
<td>poziții nete raportate săptămânal</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VIX</td>
<td><strong>diagramă</strong> (3)</td>
<td>are candele, se citește cu aceleași pattern-uri</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RSP vs. indice</td>
<td><strong>diagramă</strong> (2)</td>
<td>două serii de preț în aceleași zile</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ATR</td>
<td><strong>diagramă</strong> (2)</td>
<td>se vede în range-ul barelor; panoul de jos arată true range-ul pe bară</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>TLT + acțiune sensibilă la dobândă</td>
<td><strong>diagramă</strong> (2)</td>
<td>preț</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CPI / macro</td>
<td><strong>diagramă</strong> (2)</td>
<td>reacția prețului la raport</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<hr />
<h2 id="1-breadth-pe-sma-102050200">1. Breadth pe SMA 10/20/50/200</h2>
<p>Primul lucru din analiza zilnică (02.09), înainte de simboluri: ce procent
din companiile fiecărui indice (S&amp;P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow) e <strong>sub</strong> SMA 10,
20, 50 și 200.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„suntem 74% total companii din state sub SMA 10 […] 56% sub SMA 50 și
vedeți că la SMA 200 este 50-50"</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Deducția mea</strong> (nu e rostită în sesiuni): SMA 10 și 20 se schimbă repede,
deci arată vânzarea din ultimele 2-4 săptămâni. SMA 200 se mișcă greu și
arată trendul de fond.</p>
<p>Pragul pe care îl rostește la SMA 200 nu e 50/50, ci <strong>bull/bear market</strong>:
peste ~50% din companii sub SMA 200 = piață bear, și de obicei zonă de
bottom. „53% din companii sub SMA-200, asta înseamnă bear market. / Și de
obicei acolo este bottom" (11.03); „62% dezastru, aici asta înseamnă bear
market" (23.03, cifra e la SMA 200: „62% înseamnă că sunt sub SMA 200");
„peste 50% sub SMA 200 […] suntem deja într-o
piață bare [sic] […] super oversold" (16.03; în transcriere „bare", se
citește „bear" — ASR); „în momentul când ai căzut sub SMA
200, de fapt ești cam oversold […] e bine de cumpărat" (20.07). La 50-50
(02.09) citește doar cifra, fără să o interpreteze. <strong>Deducția mea</strong>: după
regula lui, 50-50 e chiar sub prag — nu e încă piață bear, deci o vânzare
pe SMA 10/20 cu SMA 200 la 50-50 e o corecție, nu bottom-ul de piață bear.</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Ce vezi (% companii SUB medie)</th>
<th>Ce înseamnă</th>
<th>Ce faci</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>~70%+ sub SMA 10 și 20, <strong>pe S&amp;P, NASDAQ și Russell simultan</strong></td>
<td>vânzare generalizată, piață oversold</td>
<td>cauți bottom: verifici McClellan, ATR, VIX</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>peste 50% sub SMA 50</td>
<td>corecția a trecut de zgomot</td>
<td>bottom posibil, dar ai nevoie de trigger pe indice</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>peste 50%</strong> sub SMA 200</td>
<td>piață bear; „de obicei acolo este bottom", „e bine de cumpărat"</td>
<td>cauți long la trigger</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SMA 200 ~50-50</td>
<td>sub pragul de bear market; pe 02.09 doar citește cifra („momentan mai mult deasupra SMA 200"); că nu e încă piață bear e deducția mea din regula de mai sus</td>
<td>nu declanșează nimic singur. Bottom-ul <strong>temporar</strong> din 02.09 vine din McClellan oversold + A/D prăbușit (secțiunea 2), nu din 50-50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>un indice (ex. Dow) are mai puține companii sub medii</td>
<td>e cel mai puțin oversold</td>
<td>mai puțin oversold (02.09); „nu e primul pe care îl cumperi” e deducția mea</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>60-70% companii <strong>peste</strong> medii</td>
<td>semn de întrebare</td>
<td>nu mai adaugi long-uri noi agresiv (<a href="../09_QA/21_2025-08-18.html#market-picture-procentul-de-actiuni-peste-mediile-mobile">Q&amp;A 18.08.2025</a>)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>70-80% <strong>peste</strong> medii</td>
<td>super overbought</td>
<td>pregătești protecție / short-uri (acțiunea e a mea)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>Trigger NU:</strong> majoritate sub SMA 10/20, dar doar pe un indice. Bottom-ul
de breadth cere toți indicii mari în același timp.</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="2-mcclellan-oscillator">2. McClellan Oscillator</h2>
<p>McClellan măsoară câte acțiuni avansează față de câte scad, netezit. Indicele
ponderat poate urca pe 7 companii; McClellan nu poate. De aceea el e
detectorul de „urcare pe puțini".</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Ce face McClellan</th>
<th>Ce înseamnă</th>
<th>Ce faci</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>oversold masiv</strong> + A/D prăbușit, indice în downtrend</td>
<td>vânzare pe toată piața; bottom temporar posibil (02.09)</td>
<td>cauți trigger pe indice (double bottom, retest locul crimei); aștepți ATR în spike</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>pleacă din oversold, <strong>trece de zero</strong> „ca prin brânză"</td>
<td>cumpărarea s-a lărgit</td>
<td>long-urile continuă; bonus pentru sfântul buy doji (04.09)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>pleacă din oversold, <strong>zero reject</strong> sub linia de zero</td>
<td>revenirea a fost doar pe câteva companii</td>
<td>invalidare: nu adaugi long-uri; risc de continuare a corecției</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ajunge în <strong>overbought</strong></td>
<td>participare la maxim, puțini cumpărători noi</td>
<td>pregătești short: aștepți un pattern de top (04.09)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>indicele face vârf nou, McClellan face <strong>vârf mai jos</strong></td>
<td>divergență bear</td>
<td>top posibil; verifici RSP (secțiunea 4)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>preț la <strong>pivotul monthly</strong>, McClellan <strong>peste zero</strong></td>
<td>breakout credibil (10.09)</td>
<td>iei breakout-ul</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>preț la pivotul monthly, McClellan <strong>sub zero</strong></td>
<td>breakout nesusținut</td>
<td>risc de bear flag, cade înapoi în suport</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<blockquote>
<p>„Dacă ne închidem deasupra pivotului și McLennal oscillator deasupra linei
de zero, posibil o să continuă urcarea. Altfel, probabil va fi un bearflake"
(10.09)</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Trigger NU pentru bottom:</strong> sell doji pe indice cu McClellan oversold nu e
destul — el vrea să vadă <strong>ATR-ul</strong> că începe să urce, nu McClellan: „Aș vrea
să văd ATL-ul când începe să urce" [sic; în transcriere „ATL-ul", citit aici
ca ATR] (02.09). Oversold singur poate rămâne oversold.</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="3-advancedecline">3. Advance/decline</h2>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>A/D</th>
<th>Indicele</th>
<th>Citire</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>la maxim nou</td>
<td>vârf nou</td>
<td>urcare largă, sănătoasă</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>la maxim, dar <strong>McClellan în divergență</strong></td>
<td>vârf nou</td>
<td>urcarea încetinește sub suprafață (17.08): S&amp;P, NASDAQ 100 și Russell toate în divergență, Dow în zero reject</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>în scădere</strong></td>
<td>double top cu al doilea vârf mai sus + evening star</td>
<td>top pe indice (19.08, Dow Jones)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>prăbușit</strong> + McClellan oversold</td>
<td>lower lows</td>
<td>bottom temporar (02.09)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>A/D e cumulat, deci arată trendul participării. McClellan arată <strong>viteza</strong>
schimbării ei. Le citești împreună.</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="4-rsp-verificarea-de-top">4. RSP: verificarea de top</h2>
<p>Indicele ponderat (S&amp;P 500) dă unei companii de 3.000 de miliarde o pondere
de sute de ori mai mare decât uneia de 15 miliarde. Câteva mega-cap-uri pot
face vârful nou singure. RSP pune toate companiile la aceeași pondere: dacă
RSP nu face vârf nou, <strong>compania medie nu urcă</strong>.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„McLaren oscillator […] mi-a rată mie că de fapt magnificii ii duc piața,
iar restul de companii din S&amp;P nu prea o fac, de asta e bine să vă uitați
de la RSP, care este S&amp;P-ul equal weight" (17.08)</p>
</blockquote>
<h3 id="indicele-varf-nou-apoi-evening-star">Indicele: vârf nou, apoi evening star</h3>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, indicele (ponderat)</text>
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<text x="642.5" y="189.6" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 52.70 = 2R</text>
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<text x="284.0" y="92.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">vârf 1</text>
<text x="434.0" y="68.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">vârf 2 mai sus</text>
<text x="449.0" y="145.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">evening star</text>
<text x="584.0" y="218.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP</text>
<text x="24" y="286" fill="#555">Indicele face vârf nou. Singur, arată a continuare. Verificarea e pe RSP, dedesubt.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<ul>
<li><strong>Vârf 1: 56.30.</strong> Pullback, apoi urcare la <strong>vârf 2: 57.40</strong>, mai sus.
Privit singur, e uptrend.</li>
<li>La vârful 2: bară bull mare, <strong>shooting star</strong> (corp mic, codiță sus până
la 57.40), apoi bară bear mare = <strong>evening star</strong>.</li>
<li><strong>Intrare short 55.90</strong>: close-ul barei bear, sub low-ul stelei (56.60).</li>
<li><strong>SL 57.50</strong>, deasupra vârfului 2. Dacă prețul trece de acolo, vârful nou
e real.</li>
<li><strong>TP 52.70 = 2R</strong> (risc 1.60). Atins după 9 bare.</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="rsp-aceleasi-zile-varful-2-mai-jos">RSP, aceleași zile: vârful 2 mai jos</h3>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, varianta equal weight (tip RSP)</text>
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<text x="434.0" y="64.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">vârf 2 mai jos 43.60</text>
<text x="24" y="286" fill="#555">Aceleași zile. Compania medie nu mai face vârf nou: urcarea o duc câteva mega-cap-uri.</text>
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<p>Vârful 1 al RSP: <strong>43.95</strong>. În zilele în care indicele face 57.40, RSP se
oprește la <strong>43.60</strong>, cu 0.8% sub vârful lui. Asta e confirmarea pe care o
cauți înainte de short-ul de mai sus.</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Top — DA</th>
<th>Top — NU</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>indicele: vârf nou (ascending wedge / double top cu vârful 2 mai sus) la rezistența monthly</td>
<td>RSP face și el vârf nou</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RSP <strong>nu</strong> confirmă vârful</td>
<td>McClellan confirmă prețul (fără divergență)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>McClellan în divergență bear, apoi sub zero</td>
<td>ATR fără spike: încă nu e top confirmat, aștepți</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>pattern de lumânări (shooting star / evening star), apoi sell momentum</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Ascending wedge-ul e bearish prin natura lui. Double top-ul cu al doilea vârf
mai sus e oglinda double bottom-ului cu al doilea picior mai jos: ia
stop-urile short-urilor de deasupra vârfului 1, apoi cade.</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="5-vix-citit-invers">5. VIX, citit invers</h2>
<p>Pe VIX aplici aceleași pattern-uri (suport, rezistență, double bottom, higher
low), dar <strong>sensul e opus</strong>: VIX urcă atunci când piața cade, pentru că se
cumpără protecție (put-uri). Un VIX care nu mai poate urca e o piață care nu
mai are de ce să se teamă.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„Vix-ul, dacă vă uitați pe Vix Futures, double button cu ultimul picior
mai jos și posibil higher low de aici. Vedeți că momentan a fost rejectat
în zona asta de resistance." (21.08)</p>
</blockquote>
<h3 id="da-vix-respins-in-fostul-suport-lower-low">DA: VIX respins în fostul suport, lower low</h3>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, VIX (citit invers)</text>
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<text x="179.0" y="70.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">spike 28.4</text>
<text x="284.0" y="214.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">suport</text>
<text x="389.0" y="176.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">reject</text>
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<text x="24" y="283" fill="#555">VIX respins sub fostul suport și lower low: frica scade, favorabil long-urilor pe indice.</text>
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<ul>
<li>Spike la <strong>28.40</strong>, apoi VIX coboară și se sprijină pe <strong>19.20</strong> (barele 13-18).</li>
<li>Sparge 19.20 în jos: frica iese din piață. Low-ul de după spargere: <strong>16.10</strong>.</li>
<li><strong>Reject:</strong> revine exact la 19.20 (fostul suport, acum rezistență) și
închide la 18.50, sub nivel. Bara următoare închide mai jos.</li>
<li><strong>Lower low</strong> sub 16.10 (15.90), apoi VIX coboară la 14.30.</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="indicele-in-aceleasi-zile">Indicele, în aceleași zile</h3>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, indicele, aceeași perioadă</text>
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<text x="552.5" y="96.0" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 57.30 = 2R</text>
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<text x="552.5" y="168.0" fill="#188a3e">intrare 54.30</text>
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<text x="552.5" y="204.0" fill="#c00">SL 52.80</text>
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<text x="179.0" y="307.6" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">bottom (VIX în spike)</text>
<text x="389.0" y="231.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">HL = reject pe VIX</text>
<text x="524.0" y="79.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP</text>
<text x="24" y="324" fill="#555">Bara 23: VIX respins la 19.20, indicele face higher low. Intrarea vine pe close-ul următor.</text>
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<ul>
<li><strong>Bottom 48.90</strong> în aceeași zi cu spike-ul VIX.</li>
<li>În ziua rejectului pe VIX, indicele face <strong>higher low la 52.90</strong>.</li>
<li><strong>Intrare 54.30</strong>: close-ul următor, peste high-ul barei de higher low.</li>
<li><strong>SL 52.80</strong>, sub higher low. Dacă indicele sparge 52.90, VIX nu a fost
respins de fapt.</li>
<li><strong>TP 57.30 = 2R</strong> (risc 1.50), atins după 8 bare.</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="nu-higher-low-pe-vix">NU: higher low pe VIX</h3>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, VIX (citit invers)</text>
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<text x="389.0" y="176.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">reject?</text>
<text x="419.0" y="242.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">higher low</text>
<text x="24" y="279" fill="#555">Același început, dar VIX face higher low și închide peste 19.20: risc de nouă cădere pe indice.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<p>Același început, același retest la 19.20. Dar VIX nu mai face lower low:
<strong>higher low la 16.90</strong> (peste 16.10), apoi închide la <strong>19.80, peste
fostul suport</strong>, și urcă la 25.20. Pe indice asta înseamnă o nouă cădere:
un long luat la higher low-ul indicelui ar fi fost scos pe stop.</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>VIX — DA (bine pentru long pe piață)</th>
<th>VIX — NU</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>respins în rezistență (fost suport)</td>
<td>face higher low</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>face lower low după reject</td>
<td>închide înapoi peste fostul suport</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>double bottom pe <strong>indice</strong> în aceleași zile</td>
<td>spike nou, fără lower low înainte</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<hr />
<h2 id="6-atr-spike-vs-cadere-libera">6. ATR: spike vs. cădere liberă</h2>
<p>ATR măsoară cât se mișcă o bară. La un <strong>bottom adevărat</strong> ultimii
vânzători vând în panică, cu orice preț, iar barele devin foarte mari:
ATR sare. După ce au vândut, nu mai are cine să vândă. Când prețul coboară
<strong>cu bare mici și din ce în ce mai mici</strong>, nimeni nu capitulează. Vânzarea e
ordonată și poate continua.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„ATL-ul este în cădere liberă, pentru un top sau un bottom, cel puțin noi
urmărim un bottom, aș vrea să văd ATL-ul în spike." (19.08)</p>
<p>„Văd că ATR-ul începe să intră în spike, ceea ce este bine. […] 105% a
urcat ATR-ul peste 100%." (21.08)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Pragul de „peste 100%" e al ATR%-ului din platforma lui. Transcrierea nu
spune cum e calculat, deci diagramele nu îl reproduc. Panoul de jos arată
<strong>true range-ul fiecărei bare</strong> (cât a mișcat bara, cu gap cu tot), iar
spike-ul e o bară de peste 2x media.</p>
<p><strong>După spike:</strong> urcarea e sănătoasă cât timp <strong>ATR scade</strong>; dacă ATR rămâne
sus sau urcă în uptrend (mai ales pe toți indicii și la rezistențe), semnul
e de <strong>corecție întâi</strong>, posibil top / lower high. Corecția o confirmă abia
un spike nou; fără el, trendul e încă sănătos chiar și cu divergențe.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„Pentru că ATR-ul este în scădere și asta este un uptrend sănătos momentan."
(26.02)</p>
<p>„Când ATR-ul este foarte sus […] ar trebui să ne punem un semn de întrebare
dacă urcarea asta este sănătoasă." (22.06)</p>
</blockquote>
<h3 id="da-spike-de-range-in-locul-crimei">DA: spike de range în locul crimei</h3>
<!--SVG:atr_spike-->
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 882 447" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, indicele</text>
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<text x="657.5" y="109.2" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 60.80 = 2R</text>
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<text x="657.5" y="152.6" fill="#1a5fb4">TP1 58.40 = 1/2 până la vârf (0.9R)</text>
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<text x="24" y="328.6" fill="#555">true range pe bară (volatilitate)</text>
<text x="179.0" y="202.8" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing high</text>
<text x="404.0" y="70.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">vârf 62.20</text>
<text x="494.0" y="244.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">spike de range</text>
<text x="524.0" y="163.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">trigger</text>
<text x="24" y="435" fill="#555">Range-ul barelor sare la peste 2x normalul exact când prețul atinge locul crimei.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<ul>
<li><strong>Locul crimei 54.60</strong>: swing high-ul din bara 9, spart la urcare.</li>
<li>Vârf la <strong>62.20</strong>, apoi corecție. Primele bare sunt normale, apoi două bare
cu range de <strong>2.80</strong>, față de <strong>1.15</strong> normal (<strong>2.4x</strong>). Asta e spike-ul.</li>
<li>Bara a treia e un <strong>hammer</strong> cu low exact pe <strong>54.60</strong> și close deasupra.</li>
<li><strong>Intrare 56.60</strong>: close-ul peste high-ul hammer-ului.</li>
<li><strong>SL 54.50</strong>, sub locul crimei. Sub el, fostul vârf nu mai e suport.</li>
<li><strong>TP1 58.40</strong> = jumătatea distanței dintre low (54.60) și vârf (62.20).
Regula lui pentru bounce: „ar putea măcar jumătate din distanța asta să o
acopere" (21.08). E doar
<strong>0.9R</strong>, deci acolo iei jumătate din poziție și muți stop-ul pe
break-even. Atins după 4 bare.</li>
<li><strong>TP2 60.80 = 2R</strong> (risc 2.10), pentru restul. Atins după 8 bare.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Sinteza mea</strong> (sesiunea enumeră componentele separat, nu le ridică la o
regulă „toate trei"): bounce-ul bun are toate trei — <strong>ATR% peste 100 +
McClellan oversold + locul crimei / gap închis / SMA 20</strong>.</p>
<h3 id="nu-atr-in-cadere-libera">NU: ATR în cădere liberă</h3>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, indicele</text>
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<text x="582.5" y="145.6" fill="#b06000">locul crimei 54.80</text>
<text x="582.5" y="159.6" fill="#777">SMA-20</text>
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<text x="179.0" y="131.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing high</text>
<text x="389.0" y="174.7" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">atins, fără spike</text>
<text x="539.0" y="208.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">lower lows</text>
<text x="24" y="411" fill="#555">Range-ul se micșorează pe cădere: nimeni nu capitulează, deci încă nu e bottom.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<p>Aceeași structură: swing high la <strong>54.80</strong>, urcare, corecție. Dar corecția
vine cu range mediu de <strong>0.49 pe bară</strong>, față de <strong>1.26</strong> pe urcare, fără
nicio bară mare. Prețul atinge locul crimei și trece prin el ca prin nimic,
până la 53.00. Nu există bara de capitulare, deci nu există bounce. Un long
luat „pentru că e locul crimei" ar fi fost sub stop.</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Bottom — DA</th>
<th>Bottom — NU</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>ATR în spike (bare de 2x+, ATR% peste 100)</td>
<td>ATR în cădere liberă, bare tot mai mici</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>McClellan oversold</td>
<td>McClellan reject sub zero fără oversold: corecția poate continua</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>prețul în locul crimei / gap închis / SMA 20</td>
<td>niciun nivel atins, sau atins fără reacție</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>La top e invers (10.09):</strong> volatilitatea scăzută înainte de vârf e normală.
El spune doar că ar vrea să vadă dacă la noul all-time high crește
volatilitatea: „Aș vrea să văd dacă facem new all time high că o să crească
volatilitatea" (10.09). Că top-ul confirmat vine cu ATR în spike, nu cu el
adormit, e deducția mea din §6, nu o spune.</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="7-sentiment-aaii-si-fear-greed">7. Sentiment: AAII și Fear &amp; Greed</h2>
<p>Ideea e Buffett: cumperi când ceilalți se tem. Mecanismul: cine e bearish în
sondaj a vândut deja sau stă pe cash. Vânzătorii viitori s-au terminat, iar
cash-ul lor e cumpărare viitoare. Invers la top.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„cumpără când ceilal se cacă pe ei de frică și vin de când ceilal sunt la
cum." (02.09)</p>
</blockquote>
<h3 id="aaii-pragul-de-15-25-ideal-nu-bariera">AAII: pragul de 15-25% (ideal, nu barieră)</h3>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Distanța bullish − bearish</th>
<th>Citire</th>
<th>Ce faci</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>bearish peste bullish cu 15-25%</strong> (ex. ~50% bearish vs. ~30% bullish)</td>
<td>opinie contrară validă: bottom</td>
<td>cauți long-uri, confirmi pe McClellan / breadth</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>bullish peste bearish cu 15-25%</strong></td>
<td>opinie contrară: top</td>
<td>prudență pe long-uri, pregătești short</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>bullish peste <strong>~40%</strong></td>
<td>zonă de top (<a href="../09_QA/21_2025-08-18.html#aaii-survey-cele-trei-cadrane-si-pragul-de-40">Q&amp;A 18.08.2025</a>)</td>
<td>nu adaugi long-uri noi</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>diferență de câteva procente (ex. ~4 puncte, 21.08)</td>
<td>„prea mică distanța"</td>
<td>nu e semnal; treci la McClellan / market picture</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>neutri mulți (~27%), tabere apropiate</td>
<td>indecizie (19.08)</td>
<td>nu e semnal</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<blockquote>
<p>„Ideal ar fi să fie distanțe de 20% între cele două tabere, nu suntem în
opinie contrară" (19.08)</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Pragul e ideal, nu barieră:</strong> el îl aplică larg. La 27.04, cu 46% bullish
vs. 34,4% bearish (12 puncte, sub prag, dar el o pune „într-o zonă de 20%"),
tot citește opinie contrară: „când văd atât de ridicat sentimentul bullish,
posibil să asistăm la o corecție […] este o interpretare a unui raport opinie
contrară". La 06.07, cu 31,4% bullish vs.
42,3% bearish, într-o zonă de frică: „posibil să fie un bottom, sau un bottom
temporar, nu neapărat un bottom definitiv". La 29.07, cu 29,6% bullish vs.
42,3% bearish: „Possibil să vedem un bottom" [sic]. La 02.09, tot sub prag:
„posibil bottom temporar, să vedem o retestare a vârfurilor din nou și după
care corecția".</p>
<h3 id="fear-greed">Fear &amp; Greed</h3>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Cadran</th>
<th>Citire</th>
<th>Ce faci</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>frică extremă</td>
<td>varianta mai puternică a semnalului de cumpărare</td>
<td>cauți bottom-ul pe indici, cu trigger</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>frică</td>
<td>zonă de cumpărat, dacă AAII confirmă (bearish &gt; bullish)</td>
<td>la fel, cu poziție normală</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>neutru</td>
<td>fără informație</td>
<td>contextul îl dau breadth-ul și McClellan</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>lăcomie / lăcomie extremă</td>
<td>participanții sunt deja investiți</td>
<td>prudență pe long-uri noi</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>Trigger NU (02.09):</strong> sentimentul singur nu e intrare. Frica poate deveni
frică extremă. Intri pe sistem.</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="8-cot-pozitionarea-la-bottom">8. COT: poziționarea la bottom</h2>
<p>Marii comercianți (producători, utilizatori reali) își acoperă riscul și
cumpără de obicei la prețuri mici. Marii speculatori (fonduri) urmăresc
trendul și sunt cel mai short exact la fund.</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Poziționare pe indice</th>
<th>Citire</th>
<th>Ce faci</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>marii speculatori net short</strong> + <strong>marii comercianți urcă spre zero</strong></td>
<td>bottom în formare (24.08)</td>
<td>aștepți trigger de preț: buy doji la bottom, eventual retest ~1/2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>poziționarea arată bottom, dar pe preț nu e trigger</td>
<td>prea devreme</td>
<td>nu intri; COT poate anunța bottom-ul cu 3-5 săptămâni înainte (<a href="../09_QA/01_2026-08-25.html#commitment-of-traders-cum-vezi-un-bottom-cu-3-5-saptamani-inainte">Q&amp;A 25.08.2026</a>)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>pe valute: comercianții trec peste zero <strong>înainte</strong> de un bottom important, apoi revin net short (hedging)</td>
<td>semnal rar: „nu de fiecare dată […] se întâmplă foarte rar”</td>
<td>nu-l iei singur: verifici pivotul / suportul quarterly și survey-ul (<a href="../09_QA/21_2025-08-18.html#cot-pe-valute-exemplul-euro">Q&amp;A 18.08.2025</a>, exemplul pe euro)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<blockquote>
<p>„marii speculatori au fost net short în zona asta în timp ce marii
comercianți se apropiau de linea de zero în acest bottom, unde a fost și un
buy-doge în formare." (24.08)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Retestul de ~1/2 al barei de buy doji, care ia lichiditatea de sub ea, poate
veni înainte de urcare. Nu confunda cu tranșele de la
documentul <a href="01_buy_doji_si_strategia_mici.html">01</a>: acolo se cumpără
retesturile de 1/3 și 2/3 din ultima mișcare.</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="9-bond-urile-ca-semnal-inter-market">9. Bond-urile ca semnal inter-market</h2>
<p>Acțiunile sensibile la dobândă (constructori de case, ca D.R. Horton)
depind de costul creditului: dobânzi mici înseamnă ipoteci mai ieftine și
mai multe case vândute. Prețul bond-urilor merge invers față de randament.
Un <strong>bottom pe TLT</strong> e deci piața care anunță că randamentele au atins
vârful, <strong>înainte</strong> ca asta să apară în acțiuni.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„în condițiile în care bond-urile […] vor face un spike low, să puteam să
vedem DHI-ul că face un break-out." (19.08)</p>
</blockquote>
<h3 id="bond-urile-hammer-in-suportul-quarterly">Bond-urile: hammer în suportul quarterly</h3>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, ETF de bond-uri pe termen lung</text>
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<text x="552.5" y="206.2" fill="#b06000">suport quarterly 41.80</text>
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<text x="24" y="242" fill="#555">Spike low sub picior 1, hammer în suportul quarterly: bond-urile își pot face bottom-ul.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<ul>
<li>Downtrend, <strong>picior 1 la 42.80</strong>, revenire, apoi cădere nouă.</li>
<li><strong>Picior 2 mai jos</strong>: spike low la <strong>41.80</strong>, exact în suportul quarterly,
cu hammer (codiță de peste 2x corpul) și close la 42.50. Cine a pus stop
sub 42.80 a fost scos, apoi prețul revine.</li>
<li>Bara următoare închide la <strong>43.00</strong>, peste high-ul hammer-ului: bottom-ul
pe bond-uri are trigger.</li>
</ul>
<p>Pe TLT <strong>nu</strong> iei trade-ul în exemplul ăsta. E semnalul pentru acțiune.</p>
<h3 id="actiunea-sensibila-la-dobanda-breakout-dupa-bond-uri">Acțiunea sensibilă la dobândă: breakout după bond-uri</h3>
<!--SVG:dhi-->
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, acțiune sensibilă la dobândă</text>
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<text x="642.5" y="106.0" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 59.10 = 2R</text>
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<text x="642.5" y="188.0" fill="#b06000">rezistență 55.00</text>
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<rect x="609.5" y="84.0" width="9" height="10.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="624.5" y="84.0" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#c00"/>
<text x="194.0" y="250.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">low</text>
<text x="269.0" y="240.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">HL</text>
<text x="329.0" y="232.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">HL</text>
<text x="419.0" y="152.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">breakout</text>
<text x="569.0" y="86.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP</text>
<text x="24" y="344" fill="#555">Aceleași zile ca bond-urile: ascending triangle, breakout la 3 zile după trigger-ul de pe bond-uri.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<ul>
<li><strong>Ascending triangle</strong>: rezistență plată la <strong>55.00</strong> (atinsă de 4+ ori) și
low-uri care urcă: <strong>52.90 → 53.40 → 53.80 → 54.10</strong>. Fiecare cumpărător
vine mai sus decât precedentul.</li>
<li>Cu 3 zile după trigger-ul de pe bond-uri: <strong>breakout, close 55.70</strong>. Asta
e intrarea.</li>
<li><strong>SL 54.00</strong>, sub ultimul higher low (54.10). Sub el, triunghiul s-a
stricat.</li>
<li><strong>TP 59.10 = 2R</strong> (risc 1.70), atins după 10 bare.</li>
</ul>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Inter-market — DA</th>
<th>Inter-market — NU</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>spike low / hammer pe bond futures sau TLT, în suport quarterly</td>
<td>breakdown sub pivot pe acțiune, cu volum care trece negativ</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>double bottom pe TLT cu ultimul picior mai jos</td>
<td>bond-urile fac lower low nou</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>pe acțiune: compresie, ascending triangle, triple bottom cu ultimul picior mai sus, buy hammer</td>
<td>acțiunea nu are setup propriu: bond-urile singure nu sunt intrare</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<hr />
<h2 id="10-calendar-macro">10. Calendar macro</h2>
<p>Rapoartele mută toată piața în câteva minute. Stop-ul pus înainte de raport
se execută la prețul la care se găsește contrapartidă, nu la cel scris, iar
spread-ul se lărgește. De aici regula mea pentru CPI: <strong>nu deschizi
înainte</strong>, citești reacția după. Pentru NFP, sesiunile spun doar: volatilitate
mare, atenție la tranzacții în jurul orei (04.09).</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Raport</th>
<th>Când / ce e</th>
<th>Ce contează (din sesiuni)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>CPI</strong></td>
<td>inflația de consum, lunar</td>
<td>în ziua CPI corelațiile clasice (dolar–S&amp;P, dolar–aur) n-au ținut; FedWatch arăta ~100% menținere a dobânzii (<a href="../09_QA/26_2025-06-11.html#macro-din-ziua-cpi-dolar-aur-bonduri-fed">Q&amp;A 11.06.2025</a>)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>PPI</strong></td>
<td>inflația la producător, lunar, în jurul CPI</td>
<td>anticipează CPI; mai puțină reacție decât CPI</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>ADP</strong></td>
<td>miercuri; raportul <strong>privat</strong> de locuri de muncă</td>
<td><strong>nu e NFP</strong>. Nu le confunda (02.09)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>NFP</strong></td>
<td>vineri, <strong>15:30 ora României</strong>; raportul oficial (Bureau of Labor Statistics)</td>
<td>„face ravagii ca și volatilitate" (04.09); piața așteaptă toată săptămâna</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>JOLTS</strong></td>
<td>job openings</td>
<td>în scădere = piața muncii slăbește, poate frâna creșterile de dobândă (02.09)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>ISM</strong></td>
<td>indici de activitate</td>
<td><strong>ISM pe servicii</strong> contează (economia SUA e ~70% servicii); ISM pe industrie contează puțin (02.09, 03.09)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Fed / FOMC</strong></td>
<td>decizia de dobândă, apoi minuta</td>
<td>minuta = volatilitate în ziua publicării (19.08). Probabilitățile pot fi „fake" și deja în preț (03.09). Fed nu urcă ușor dobânda înainte de midterm elections (10.09)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Jackson Hole</strong></td>
<td>simpozionul Fed de la final de august</td>
<td>poate muta indicii câteva procente într-o zi (17.08, cifra exactă din memorie, incertă)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Core PCE, PIB, consumer confidence, șomaj săptămânal</strong></td>
<td>în săptămâna Jackson Hole</td>
<td>de verificat (25.08). La PIB sunt 3 variante, el o remarcă pe prima (17.08); că prima mișcă piața e deducția mea, nu o spune</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>Raportul de inflație (CPI, PPI, Core PCE) față de consens dă direcția:</strong>
peste așteptări → cădere / escaladare în direcție short; egal sau sub → revenire.
Contează diferența față de forecast, nu cifra în sine — a doua parte e
<strong>deducția mea</strong>: sesiunea spune doar că peste așteptări vedem cădere,
altfel revenire.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„Și dacă inflația va ieși mai mare decât previziunea, o să vedem o escaladare
în momentul în sensul în care, dacă mă duc aici, o să vedem o escaladare în
direcție short. […] Adică dacă CPI-ul o să ia să nașpa, în urcare, adică mai
mare decât așteptările, o să vedem ucătere în continuare pe preță, altfel am
putea să vedem o revenire." [sic] (10.06)</p>
</blockquote>
<h3 id="cpi-da-breakout-din-compresie-confirmat-a-doua-zi">CPI — DA: breakout din compresie, confirmat a doua zi</h3>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 734 475" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, indicele</text>
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<line x1="621.5" y1="212.0" x2="626.5" y2="216.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="627.5" y="103.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 60.30 = 2R</text>
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<text x="24" y="357.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="329.0" y="273.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">compresie înainte de CPI</text>
<text x="419.0" y="247.0" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">CPI</text>
<text x="434.0" y="156.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">confirmare</text>
<text x="24" y="463" fill="#555">Nu intri înainte de raport. Intri după ce ziua de după CPI rămâne deasupra range-ului.</text>
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<!--/SVG-->
<ul>
<li>Uptrend, apoi <strong>11 zile de compresie între 54.40 și 55.40</strong>, cu volum în
scădere. Piața așteaptă raportul.</li>
<li><strong>Ziua CPI</strong>: close <strong>56.40</strong>, peste range, cu volum <strong>96</strong> față de media
compresiei de <strong>31</strong> (3x).</li>
<li>Nu intri în bara de CPI. <strong>A doua zi</strong> low-ul rămâne deasupra lui 55.40
și close-ul e mai sus: <strong>intrare 56.90</strong>.</li>
<li><strong>SL 55.20</strong>, sub range high. Înapoi în range = breakout-ul a eșuat
(diagrama NU, mai jos).</li>
<li><strong>TP 60.30 = 2R</strong> (risc 1.70), atins după 9 bare.</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="cpi-nu-spike-peste-range-close-inapoi-inauntru">CPI — NU: spike peste range, close înapoi înăuntru</h3>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, indicele</text>
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<text x="24" y="254.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="329.0" y="170.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">compresie înainte de CPI</text>
<text x="419.0" y="66.0" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">CPI: spike 56.50</text>
<text x="434.0" y="197.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">close sub range</text>
<text x="24" y="360" fill="#555">Același range. Spike-ul de pe CPI se închide înapoi înăuntru: cine a cumpărat la 56 e prins.</text>
</svg></p>
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<p>Aceeași compresie. Pe CPI prețul sare la <strong>56.50</strong>, dar închide la <strong>55.10</strong>,
înapoi în range, cu o codiță lungă. Cine a cumpărat în minutele raportului,
la 56, e prins. A doua zi close la <strong>54.20, sub range low</strong>, apoi 50.90.
Regula de a aștepta close-ul, și ziua de după, te ține afară.</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>După raport — DA</th>
<th>După raport — NU</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>close-ul zilei de raport <strong>în afara</strong> range-ului, cu volum</td>
<td>codiță peste range, close înăuntru</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ziua următoare rămâne în afara range-ului</td>
<td>ziua următoare închide în partea opusă a range-ului</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>contextul e de acord (McClellan peste zero, VIX în scădere)</td>
<td>intrare luată în minutele raportului</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3 id="inainte-de-fomc-buy-ul-pe-sectoare">Înainte de FOMC: buy-ul pe sectoare</h3>
<p><strong>SEMNALELE DE BUY PE SECTOARE ÎNAINTE DE FOMC arată ce anticipează piața.</strong>
Băncile regionale în buy = veste bună; imobiliarele în buy = piața
anticipează dobânzi la nivelul actual (29.07).</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„Bâncile regionale intră în bai înainte de decizia FED […] Dacă bâncile
regionale, probabil va fi o veste bună." […] „În zona de imobiliare, de
obicei, când văd baiuri în zona asta, în preajma, în întâlniri
federalizări, probabil că piața anticipează în continuare dobânzi la nivelul
actual. Pentru că altfel, n-aș vedea în zona de imobiliare baiuri." (29.07)</p>
</blockquote>
<hr />
<h2 id="11-gap-ul-la-deschiderea-indicilor">11. Gap-ul la deschiderea indicilor</h2>
<p><strong>Gap-ul la deschiderea indicilor</strong> (inclusiv premarket) se citește după
context: <strong>gap-up în piață bear</strong> (sau cu ATR ridicat) = perspectivă bear, e
probabilă o cădere înainte de urcare — nu cumperi deschiderea; <strong>gap-down /
deschidere pe minus după o cădere</strong>, în uptrend, e o <strong>caracteristică de
piață bull</strong>.</p>
<p><em>Deducția mea: că gap-up-ul „se închide" înainte de cădere. Citatul din 12.02
spune doar că un gap-up apare în scenarii bear; probabilitatea căderii o leagă
de ATR în expansiune, nu de închiderea gap-ului.</em></p>
<blockquote>
<p>„si cand ma dedeschidem cu GepUp, in principiu, avem de aface cu perspectiva
bear in piata, pentru ca nu poti sa faci sa te deschize aproximativ cu un
GepUp, in general decat in scenarii bear." [sic] (12.02)</p>
<p>„dar vreau de exemplu pe candela de astăzi, dacă avem urcare și-mi place că
ne descrindem cu gap down, cel puțin un pic de gap down, pentru că asta e o
caracteristică a pieței bull, mai ales după o cădere." [sic] (09.02)</p>
</blockquote>
<hr />
<h2 id="checklist-context-inainte-de-trigger">Checklist: context înainte de trigger</h2>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Verificare</th>
<th>Bottom (long)</th>
<th>Top (short / prudență)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>breadth</td>
<td>~70%+ sub SMA 10/20, &gt;50% sub SMA 50, pe toți indicii</td>
<td>70-80% peste medii</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>McClellan</td>
<td>oversold, apoi trece de zero</td>
<td>overbought / divergență bear / zero reject</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>advance/decline</td>
<td>prăbușit</td>
<td>în scădere cu indicele la vârf</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RSP</td>
<td>—</td>
<td>nu confirmă vârful indicelui</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VIX</td>
<td>respins în rezistență, lower low</td>
<td>higher low, înapoi peste fostul suport</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ATR</td>
<td>în spike</td>
<td>crește la noul vârf (așteptarea lui din 10.09, nu o regulă confirmată)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>AAII</td>
<td>bearish &gt; bullish (ideal 15-25%, aplică și sub)</td>
<td>bullish &gt; bearish (ideal 15-25%), bullish &gt; 40%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Fear &amp; Greed</td>
<td>frică / frică extremă</td>
<td>lăcomie / lăcomie extremă</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>COT</td>
<td>speculatori net short, comercianți spre zero</td>
<td>—</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>macro (rândul e al meu)</td>
<td>fără raport major în 1-2 zile, sau raport deja trecut</td>
<td>la fel</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Niciunul singur nu e suficient. Cu cât mai multe rânduri sunt de aceeași
parte, cu atât poziția poate fi mai mare (adăugirea mea, vezi finalul).</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="gotchas">Gotchas</h2>
<ul>
<li><strong>Contextul nu e trigger.</strong> Frica extremă, McClellan oversold, VIX la
28.40 — toate pot deveni și mai extreme. Intri pe preț:
în diagrama VIX, intrarea a venit abia la higher low-ul indicelui (54.30).</li>
<li><strong>Nu cumpăra locul crimei fără spike de ATR.</strong> Diagrama NU de la ATR:
bare de 0.49 față de 1.26, prețul a trecut prin 54.80 fără reacție.</li>
<li><strong>Un vârf nou pe indice nu e un vârf nou pe piață.</strong> Verifici RSP: în
exemplu indicele a făcut 57.40, RSP a rămas cu 0.8% sub vârful lui.</li>
<li><strong>Atenție la minutele de CPI / NFP.</strong> Spike-ul de la 56.50 s-a închis la
55.10. Și nu confunda ADP (miercuri) cu NFP (vineri).</li>
<li><strong>Stop-ul pe break-even te scoate des în volatilitate mare</strong> (02.09).
În săptămânile cu rapoarte, fie accepți ieșirile la zero și cauți
reintrare, fie lași stop-ul la structură, cu poziție mai mică.</li>
</ul>
<hr />
<h2 id="surse">Surse</h2>
<p>Din analiza zilnică (recoltele din <code>harvest/</code>):</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>10.06.2026</strong> — raportul de inflație (CPI/PPI): direcția după surpriza față
de consens.</li>
<li><strong>17.08.2026</strong> — top purtat de mega-cap-uri: A/D la maxim, McClellan în
divergență, RSP; Jackson Hole; PIB-ul cu 3 estimări; MBT-10 în căderile
generale.</li>
<li><strong>19.08.2026</strong> — bond-urile / TLT și D.R. Horton; top pe Dow cu double top,
evening star și McClellan; ATR în cădere liberă; AAII cu neutri mulți;
minuta FOMC.</li>
<li><strong>21.08.2026</strong> — AAII cu pragul de 15-25%; ATR% în spike peste 100%; VIX
futures citit invers; McClellan sub zero cu MBT-10 short pe indice; ținta
bounce-ului la jumătate.</li>
<li><strong>24.08.2026</strong> — COT la bottom.</li>
<li><strong>25.08.2026</strong> — calendarul din săptămâna Jackson Hole.</li>
<li><strong>02.09.2026</strong> — breadth pe SMA 10/20/50/200; bottom temporar cu McClellan
oversold și A/D prăbușit; AAII + Fear &amp; Greed; ADP vs. NFP; ISM; JOLTS;
stop-ul pe break-even.</li>
<li><strong>03.09.2026</strong> — ISM pe servicii; probabilitățile de dobândă „fake".</li>
<li><strong>04.09.2026</strong> — McClellan: zero reject vs. overbought; NFP.</li>
<li><strong>10.09.2026</strong> — breakout la pivotul monthly confirmat de McClellan; ATR
scăzut înainte de vârf; Fed înainte de midterm.</li>
</ul>
<p>Lista nu e exhaustivă: corpul mai citează și din sesiunile <strong>26.02</strong>, <strong>11.03</strong>,
<strong>16.03</strong>, <strong>27.04</strong>, <strong>06.07</strong>, <strong>20.07</strong>, <strong>22.06</strong>, <strong>29.07</strong>, <strong>12.02</strong> și
<strong>09.02</strong> (citate cu data lor, în secțiunile de mai sus).</p>
<p>Din Q&amp;A: <a href="../09_QA/21_2025-08-18.html">18.08.2025</a> (market picture, AAII
40%, COT), <a href="../09_QA/01_2026-08-25.html">25.08.2026</a> (COT, AAII),
<a href="../09_QA/26_2025-06-11.html">11.06.2025</a> (ziua CPI),
<a href="../09_QA/05_2026-07-28.html#bondurile-unde-te-uiti-inainte-sa-te-uiti-la-actiuni">28.07.2026</a>
(bond-urile ca indicator avansat), <a href="../09_QA/25_2025-07-08.html#vix-jos-si-divergenta-vix-spy">08.07.2025</a>
(VIX / SPY). Documente vecine: <a href="01_buy_doji_si_strategia_mici.html">01 — buy doji</a>,
<a href="04_pivoti_si_proiectii.html">04 — pivoți</a>, <a href="05_volum.html">05 — volum</a>.</p>
<hr />
<p><em>Ce e completare a mea: toate prețurile și diagramele sunt construite (în
transcrieri cifrele de pe ecran sunt aproximative). Panoul de true range e
alegerea mea în locul ATR%-ului din platforma lui, al cărui calcul nu apare
în transcrieri; pragul „bară de 2x media" e al meu. Intrările, stop-urile,
țintele de 2R și împărțirea TP1/TP2 la bounce sunt aplicarea mea a regulilor
din curs. CPI și PPI apar în sesiunea din 10.06, de unde vine citatul despre
direcție; acolo e dată și descrierea CPI („inflația la consumator, toate
formele de inflație"), iar PPI e doar pomenit. Regula „intri a doua zi după
raport" și diagramele CPI DA/NU sunt ale mele. La fel: explicațiile de
mecanism (de ce VIX urcă la
căderi, de ce capitularea mărește barele, de ce speculatorii sunt short la
fund, legătura dobândă–constructori de case, stop-urile executate prost la
raport). Tot ale mele: extinderea „fără raport major în 1-2 zile" din
checklist, poziția mai mică în săptămânile cu rapoarte (NFP, Jackson Hole),
„cu cât mai multe rânduri de aceeași parte, cu atât poziția poate fi mai
mare", concluzia că Dow, cel mai puțin oversold, nu e primul de cumpărat, și
coloana „Ce faci" la 70-80% peste medii (pragurile sunt din Q&amp;A). Pragurile (15-25% la AAII, 74% / 56% la breadth, 105% la
ATR, NFP la 15:30), trigger-ele DA/NU și citatele vin din sesiuni; 50-50 de
la SMA 200 e doar o cifră citită, nu un prag (pragul rostit e „peste ~50%
= bear market"; că 50-50 înseamnă corecție, nu piață bear, e deducția mea,
vezi §1); cele
marcate cu link vin din Q&amp;A.</em></p><nav class="pager"><a class="prev" href="06_structura_trend.html">← 06. #6 — Structura de trend și pattern-urile</a><a class="up" href="../index.html#08_ANALIZA_ZILNICA">↑ index</a><a class="next" href="08_executie_si_risc.html">08. #8 — Execuție și risc →</a></nav>
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