Grafice reale in Q&A 01, 02.12, 28.10 si 21.10 (20 de diagrame)
Conversie facuta de un agent, dupa regula din STYLE.md. Fiecare serie e construita cu from_closes si are assert pe ce afirma textul: 01 (9 diagrame): doua pozitii cu BE, trail, short 0.62R cu SMA-20, inverted H&S cu 3.05R la varf, TP pe swing low DA/NU, retest vechi vs nou, DX si 6J weekly, COT pe GC cu panou dedicat, black swan cu gap sub stop. 02.12 (4): mutarea la 50% DA/NU pe IWM, sprint/consolidare cu continuare si reversal, range intraday cu volum, LEG monthly cu 10 luni de acumulare. 28.10 (2): UPS cu SMA-20 si doua tinte atinse, S&P yearly cu CAGR 10.4%. 21.10 (5): confirmarea intarziata a unui swing low, swing low sub intrare, trailing simulat bara cu bara, minor vs major, agregarea 1 min -> 15 min. Neatinse deliberat peste tot: diagramele conceptuale (definitii de o candela, linii de pivot, scheme fara axa de pret). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01MtSTyTmt6AbCL9j5ajEDm1
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Claude Agent
@@ -28,31 +28,151 @@ motivul lui (comisioane) era o problemă reală, dar rezolvată greșit.</p>
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și susținea că suma finală iese mai mare decât dacă ar fi ieșit jumătate la
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TP1 și restul pe trail.</p>
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<p><strong>Lanțul regulii, așa cum e construită strategia:</strong></p>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 340" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="20" y="18" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">DA — 2 poziții (minim)</text>
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<text x="34" y="266" fill="#1a1a1a">intrare, 2 x 50 buc.</text>
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<text x="34" y="169" fill="#b06000">50% din drum → SL la breakeven</text>
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<text x="34" y="104" fill="#188a3e">TP1 → închizi poziția 1</text>
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<circle cx="230" cy="110" r="4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="150" y="60" fill="#188a3e">poziția 2 merge pe trail</text>
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<text x="30" y="300" fill="#188a3e">Ai încasat TP1 și mai ai o poziție în joc.</text>
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<text x="30" y="320" fill="#188a3e">Trail-ul are ce să urmărească.</text>
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<text x="350" y="18" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">NU — o singură poziție</text>
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<text x="359" y="266" fill="#1a1a1a">intrare, 1 x 100 buc.</text>
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<text x="359" y="112" fill="#b06000">50% din drum → SL la breakeven</text>
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<text x="358" y="238" fill="#c00">pullback normal la 50% — te scoate</text>
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<text x="355" y="300" fill="#c00">Te scoate la breakeven cu TOATĂ poziția.</text>
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<text x="355" y="320" fill="#c00">Nu mai ai cu ce să prinzi continuarea.</text>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 316" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">IWM — daily · DA: 2 poziții (minim)</text>
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<text x="30" y="176.0" fill="#1a1a1a">intrare 220.00 — 2 x 50 buc.</text>
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<text x="30" y="140.0" fill="#b06000">223.00 — 50% din drum → SL la breakeven</text>
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<text x="30" y="104.0" fill="#188a3e">TP1 226.00 → închizi poziția 1</text>
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<text x="350.0" y="179.2" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">50%</text>
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<text x="422.0" y="144.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP1</text>
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<text x="560.0" y="46.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">poziția 2 merge pe trail</text>
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<text x="24" y="304" fill="#555">Ai încasat TP1 și mai ai o poziție în joc. Trail-ul are ce să urmărească.</text>
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</svg></p>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 308" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">IWM — daily · NU: o singură poziție</text>
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<text x="30" y="167.6" fill="#1a1a1a">intrare 220.00 — 1 x 100 buc.</text>
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<text x="30" y="131.6" fill="#b06000">223.00 — 50% din drum → SL la breakeven</text>
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<text x="30" y="95.6" fill="#188a3e">TP1 226.00 — neatins</text>
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<text x="350.0" y="170.8" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">50%</text>
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||||
<text x="440.0" y="194.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">pullback normal — te scoate la BE</text>
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<text x="596.0" y="46.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">continuarea, fără tine</text>
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<text x="24" y="296" fill="#555">Te scoate la breakeven cu TOATĂ poziția. Nu mai ai cu ce să prinzi continuarea.</text>
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</svg></p>
|
||||
<p><strong>Regula de bază pe MBAP, citată:</strong> "după ce ai trecut de 50%, te protejezi
|
||||
la 50%." Adică muți stop-loss-ul la breakeven după ce prețul a parcurs
|
||||
@@ -113,18 +233,163 @@ consolidare.</p>
|
||||
sprinturi nu se oprește — <strong>aleargă ușor</strong> între ele. Consolidarea e alergarea
|
||||
ușoară. După ea vine un nou sprint, care poate fi în direcția trendului sau
|
||||
invers.</p>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 250" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="8" y="14" fill="#666">preț ↑</text>
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<text x="35" y="200" fill="#188a3e">sprint (trend)</text>
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<text x="200" y="130" fill="#b06000">consolidare — "alergarea ușoară"</text>
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<text x="200" y="146" fill="#555">lateral sau ușor contra-trend</text>
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<text x="440" y="195" fill="#c00">sau sprint invers (reversal)</text>
|
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<text x="190" y="42" fill="#188a3e">sprint nou, în direcția trendului</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="222" fill="#333">Din trend se trece prin consolidare, apoi ori continuă trendul,</text><text x="30" y="240" fill="#333">ori se schimbă. Direcția nu se știe dinainte.</text>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 354" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">SPY — daily</text>
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<text x="560" y="140" fill="#1a5fb4">SMA-20</text>
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|
||||
<text x="314.0" y="155.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">consolidare — „alergarea ușoară”</text>
|
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<text x="566.0" y="46.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">sprint nou, în direcția trendului</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="342" fill="#555">Varianta 1: consolidare laterală sau ușor contra-trend, apoi trendul continuă.</text>
|
||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 243" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">SPY — daily</text>
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<rect x="534.5" y="169.4" width="9" height="9.9" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="554.0" y1="175.2" x2="554.0" y2="194.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="549.5" y="179.3" width="9" height="11.2" fill="#c00"/>
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||||
<text x="32.0" y="214.9" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">sprint (trend)</text>
|
||||
<text x="314.0" y="43.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">consolidare — „alergarea ușoară”</text>
|
||||
<text x="566.0" y="214.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">sau sprint invers (reversal)</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="231" fill="#555">Varianta 2: aceeași consolidare, apoi trendul se schimbă. Direcția nu se știe dinainte.</text>
|
||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
<p><strong>Definiția de uptrend pe care a repetat-o</strong> ("scărița"): high-ul de azi mai
|
||||
sus decât high-ul de ieri <strong>și</strong> low-ul de azi mai sus decât low-ul de ieri.
|
||||
@@ -152,22 +417,124 @@ Ambele, nu doar unul.</p>
|
||||
<p>Se trasează <strong>high-ul și low-ul candelei daily de ieri</strong> ca două linii, apoi
|
||||
se lucrează între ele pe un time frame mic (1-5 minute).</p>
|
||||
<p><strong>Dar nu naiv.</strong> Aici e partea care contează:</p>
|
||||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 330" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="8" y="14" fill="#666">preț ↑ (intraday, 1 minut)</text>
|
||||
<line x1="30" y1="60" x2="600" y2="60" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||||
<text x="34" y="52" fill="#c00">682.99 — high-ul candelei daily de ieri</text>
|
||||
<line x1="30" y1="205" x2="600" y2="205" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="2"/>
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||||
<text x="34" y="224" fill="#188a3e">678.74 — low-ul candelei daily de ieri</text>
|
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<circle cx="165" cy="68" r="0"/>
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<circle cx="125" cy="68" r="4.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="130" y1="74" x2="180" y2="104" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="3 3"/><text x="185" y="110" fill="#c00">short la high</text>
|
||||
<circle cx="325" cy="240" r="5" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||||
<text x="250" y="272" fill="#188a3e">NU shortezi aici, deși a căzut sub low.</text>
|
||||
<text x="250" y="288" fill="#188a3e">Cu divergență pe volum, cumperi — e stop hunt.</text>
|
||||
<circle cx="490" cy="72" r="4.5" fill="#c00"/>
|
||||
<text x="466" y="46" fill="#c00">short din nou</text>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="316" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">"A căzut sub low of the day, a căzut pe dracu' cu divergența asta — faci invers."</text>
|
||||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 452" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">SPY — 1 min</text>
|
||||
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|
||||
<text x="592" y="50.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">682.99 — high-ul candelei daily de ieri</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="289.8" x2="606" y2="289.8" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray=""/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="283.8" fill="#188a3e">678.74 — low-ul candelei daily de ieri</text>
|
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<rect x="105.5" y="154.4" width="9" height="16.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="119.5" y="132.4" width="9" height="22.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="133.5" y="110.5" width="9" height="22.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="147.5" y="88.5" width="9" height="22.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="497.5" y="376.1" width="9" height="33.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="553.5" y="386.6" width="9" height="23.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="567.5" y="384.3" width="9" height="25.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="581.5" y="386.6" width="9" height="23.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<text x="24" y="333.9" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||||
<text x="166.0" y="47.1" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">short la high</text>
|
||||
<text x="264.0" y="301.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">minim 1: volum mare</text>
|
||||
<text x="390.0" y="327.9" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">sub low, volum mai mic → stop hunt: cumperi</text>
|
||||
<text x="488.0" y="29.1" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">short din nou</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="440" fill="#555">„A căzut sub low of the day, a căzut pe dracu' cu divergența asta — faci invers.”</text>
|
||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
<p><strong>Mecanismul, care e cel din lecția despre short squeeze:</strong> sub low-ul zilei
|
||||
stau stop-loss-urile celor care au cumpărat. Prețul e împins acolo tocmai ca
|
||||
@@ -186,30 +553,114 @@ de aplicare.</p>
|
||||
<p>Avertismentul cel mai practic din sesiune: consolidarea <strong>te plictisește
|
||||
afară din trade exact înainte de breakout</strong>.</p>
|
||||
<p>Exemplul dat, LEG: <strong>7-10 luni</strong> fără să facă nimic.</p>
|
||||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 340" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="8" y="14" fill="#666">preț ↑</text>
|
||||
<polyline points="40,150 75,138 110,158 145,140 180,160 215,142 250,156 285,138 320,158 355,145 390,152 420,140" fill="none" stroke="#333" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="120" y="110" fill="#b06000">10 luni de consolidare — "nimic n-a făcut"</text>
|
||||
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<line x1="40" y1="172" x2="420" y2="172" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="3 3"/>
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<line x1="420" y1="140" x2="440" y2="130" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="2"/>
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<line x1="408" y1="98" x2="434" y2="120" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="3 3"/><text x="300" y="95" fill="#188a3e">buy doji monthly</text>
|
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|
||||
<text x="470" y="180" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">direct, țeavă</text>
|
||||
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<text x="20" y="236" fill="#666">Volum (acumulare)</text>
|
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<rect x="225" y="277" width="26" height="51" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="280" y="270" width="26" height="58" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="440" y="272" fill="#188a3e">acumulare constantă,</text>
|
||||
<text x="440" y="288" fill="#188a3e">invizibilă în preț</text>
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<line x1="30" y1="328" x2="600" y2="328" stroke="#888"/>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 441" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">LEG — monthly</text>
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<text x="24" y="322.6" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="224.0" y="315.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">10 luni de consolidare — „nimic n-a făcut”</text>
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<text x="374.0" y="316.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
|
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<text x="509.0" y="46.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">direct, țeavă</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="429" fill="#555">Volum: acumulare constantă, invizibilă în preț. Breakout-ul vine după buy doji.</text>
|
||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
<p><strong>Ideea care justifică indicatorul lor de volum:</strong> pe <strong>On Balance Volume</strong>
|
||||
acumularea asta aproape nu se vedea — abia în ultima bucată. Pe indicatorul
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -15,31 +15,152 @@ TP1 și restul pe trail.
|
||||
|
||||
**Lanțul regulii, așa cum e construită strategia:**
|
||||
|
||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 620 340" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="20" y="18" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">DA — 2 poziții (minim)</text>
|
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||||
<text x="34" y="266" fill="#1a1a1a">intrare, 2 x 50 buc.</text>
|
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|
||||
<text x="34" y="169" fill="#b06000">50% din drum → SL la breakeven</text>
|
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|
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<text x="34" y="104" fill="#188a3e">TP1 → închizi poziția 1</text>
|
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<circle cx="140" cy="175" r="4" fill="#b06000"/>
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<circle cx="230" cy="110" r="4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="150" y="60" fill="#188a3e">poziția 2 merge pe trail</text>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="300" fill="#188a3e">Ai încasat TP1 și mai ai o poziție în joc.</text>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="320" fill="#188a3e">Trail-ul are ce să urmărească.</text>
|
||||
<text x="350" y="18" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">NU — o singură poziție</text>
|
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<text x="359" y="266" fill="#1a1a1a">intrare, 1 x 100 buc.</text>
|
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|
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<text x="359" y="112" fill="#b06000">50% din drum → SL la breakeven</text>
|
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<circle cx="465" cy="175" r="4" fill="#b06000"/>
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<circle cx="545" cy="178" r="5" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="358" y="238" fill="#c00">pullback normal la 50% — te scoate</text>
|
||||
<text x="355" y="300" fill="#c00">Te scoate la breakeven cu TOATĂ poziția.</text>
|
||||
<text x="355" y="320" fill="#c00">Nu mai ai cu ce să prinzi continuarea.</text>
|
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<svg viewBox="0 0 620 316" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">IWM — daily · DA: 2 poziții (minim)</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="176.0" fill="#1a1a1a">intrare 220.00 — 2 x 50 buc.</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="140.0" fill="#b06000">223.00 — 50% din drum → SL la breakeven</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="110.0" x2="606" y2="110.0" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="104.0" fill="#188a3e">TP1 226.00 → închizi poziția 1</text>
|
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<rect x="39.0" y="249.2" width="10" height="4.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="62.0" y1="250.4" x2="62.0" y2="267.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="57.0" y="254.0" width="10" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="80.0" y1="260.0" x2="80.0" y2="274.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="75.0" y="263.6" width="10" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="98.0" y1="257.6" x2="98.0" y2="274.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="93.0" y="261.2" width="10" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="116.0" y1="249.2" x2="116.0" y2="264.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="111.0" y="252.8" width="10" height="8.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="147.0" y="246.8" width="10" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="170.0" y1="233.6" x2="170.0" y2="250.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="255.0" y="202.4" width="10" height="8.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="560.0" y="46.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">poziția 2 merge pe trail</text>
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<text x="24" y="304" fill="#555">Ai încasat TP1 și mai ai o poziție în joc. Trail-ul are ce să urmărească.</text>
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</svg>
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<text x="30" y="167.6" fill="#1a1a1a">intrare 220.00 — 1 x 100 buc.</text>
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<text x="30" y="131.6" fill="#b06000">223.00 — 50% din drum → SL la breakeven</text>
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<text x="30" y="95.6" fill="#188a3e">TP1 226.00 — neatins</text>
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|
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<text x="440.0" y="194.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">pullback normal — te scoate la BE</text>
|
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<text x="596.0" y="46.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">continuarea, fără tine</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="296" fill="#555">Te scoate la breakeven cu TOATĂ poziția. Nu mai ai cu ce să prinzi continuarea.</text>
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</svg>
|
||||
|
||||
**Regula de bază pe MBAP, citată:** "după ce ai trecut de 50%, te protejezi
|
||||
@@ -119,18 +240,164 @@ sprinturi nu se oprește — **aleargă ușor** între ele. Consolidarea e alerg
|
||||
ușoară. După ea vine un nou sprint, care poate fi în direcția trendului sau
|
||||
invers.
|
||||
|
||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 620 250" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
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<text x="8" y="14" fill="#666">preț ↑</text>
|
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|
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<text x="35" y="200" fill="#188a3e">sprint (trend)</text>
|
||||
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||||
<text x="200" y="130" fill="#b06000">consolidare — "alergarea ușoară"</text>
|
||||
<text x="200" y="146" fill="#555">lateral sau ușor contra-trend</text>
|
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<polyline points="360,92 400,125 440,155 470,178" fill="none" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2.5" stroke-dasharray="5 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="440" y="195" fill="#c00">sau sprint invers (reversal)</text>
|
||||
<text x="190" y="42" fill="#188a3e">sprint nou, în direcția trendului</text>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="222" fill="#333">Din trend se trece prin consolidare, apoi ori continuă trendul,</text><text x="30" y="240" fill="#333">ori se schimbă. Direcția nu se știe dinainte.</text>
|
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<svg viewBox="0 0 620 354" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">SPY — daily</text>
|
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<text x="560" y="140" fill="#1a5fb4">SMA-20</text>
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<text x="314.0" y="43.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">consolidare — „alergarea ușoară”</text>
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<text x="566.0" y="214.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">sau sprint invers (reversal)</text>
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<text x="24" y="231" fill="#555">Varianta 2: aceeași consolidare, apoi trendul se schimbă. Direcția nu se știe dinainte.</text>
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</svg>
|
||||
|
||||
**Definiția de uptrend pe care a repetat-o** ("scărița"): high-ul de azi mai
|
||||
@@ -164,22 +431,124 @@ se lucrează între ele pe un time frame mic (1-5 minute).
|
||||
|
||||
**Dar nu naiv.** Aici e partea care contează:
|
||||
|
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<text x="8" y="14" fill="#666">preț ↑ (intraday, 1 minut)</text>
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<text x="34" y="52" fill="#c00">682.99 — high-ul candelei daily de ieri</text>
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<text x="34" y="224" fill="#188a3e">678.74 — low-ul candelei daily de ieri</text>
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<line x1="130" y1="74" x2="180" y2="104" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="3 3"/><text x="185" y="110" fill="#c00">short la high</text>
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<text x="250" y="272" fill="#188a3e">NU shortezi aici, deși a căzut sub low.</text>
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<text x="250" y="288" fill="#188a3e">Cu divergență pe volum, cumperi — e stop hunt.</text>
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<text x="466" y="46" fill="#c00">short din nou</text>
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<text x="30" y="316" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">"A căzut sub low of the day, a căzut pe dracu' cu divergența asta — faci invers."</text>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">SPY — 1 min</text>
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<text x="592" y="50.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">682.99 — high-ul candelei daily de ieri</text>
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<text x="30" y="283.8" fill="#188a3e">678.74 — low-ul candelei daily de ieri</text>
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**Mecanismul, care e cel din lecția despre short squeeze:** sub low-ul zilei
|
||||
@@ -205,30 +574,114 @@ afară din trade exact înainte de breakout**.
|
||||
|
||||
Exemplul dat, LEG: **7-10 luni** fără să facă nimic.
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<text x="20" y="236" fill="#666">Volum (acumulare)</text>
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<text x="440" y="272" fill="#188a3e">acumulare constantă,</text>
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<text x="440" y="288" fill="#188a3e">invizibilă în preț</text>
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<text x="24" y="322.6" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="224.0" y="315.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">10 luni de consolidare — „nimic n-a făcut”</text>
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<text x="374.0" y="316.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
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<text x="509.0" y="46.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">direct, țeavă</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="429" fill="#555">Volum: acumulare constantă, invizibilă în preț. Breakout-ul vine după buy doji.</text>
|
||||
</svg>
|
||||
|
||||
**Ideea care justifică indicatorul lor de volum:** pe **On Balance Volume**
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -194,25 +194,104 @@ dintr-un maxim de 38 — aproape de vârful propriului interval.</p>
|
||||
de aproape 8%, sau la unul cu 1.5%?"</p>
|
||||
<p><strong>Partea tehnică, pe același instrument:</strong>
|
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<text x="592" y="84.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">TP2 103.40</text>
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<text x="592" y="163.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">TP1 96.20</text>
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<text x="592" y="241.3" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">intrare 89.10</text>
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<text x="592" y="296.3" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL 84.10 — sub low-ul doji-ului</text>
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<text x="24" y="190.4" fill="#999">downtrend anterior</text>
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<text x="110" y="320.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
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<text x="220" y="320.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">confirmare</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="340.3" fill="#188a3e">buy doji daily, 14.10 — după ce i-a scuturat pe toți</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="357.3" fill="#188a3e">confirmare — închide peste high-ul doji-ului</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="382" fill="#555">Scară: 1.00 = 11 px. Risc 5.00, TP1 la 1.42R, TP2 la 2.86R — atinse amândouă.</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">UPS — daily</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="84.1" fill="#188a3e">TP2 103.40</text>
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<text x="592" y="163.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">TP1 96.20</text>
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<text x="592" y="241.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">intrare 89.10</text>
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<text x="592" y="296.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL 84.10 — sub low-ul doji-ului</text>
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<text x="304.0" y="320.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
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<text x="434.0" y="205.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP1</text>
|
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<text x="563.0" y="127.7" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">TP2</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="340.4" fill="#188a3e">buy doji daily, 14.10 — după ce i-a scuturat pe toți</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="357.4" fill="#188a3e">confirmare — închide peste high-ul doji-ului; intrare la close, 89.10</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="382" fill="#555">Scară: 1.00 = 11 px. Risc 5.00, TP1 la 1.42R, TP2 la 2.86R — atinse amândouă. Punctat: SMA-20.</text>
|
||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
<p><strong>Nivelurile sunt reconstruite de mine</strong> pe scara UPS din perioada discutată
|
||||
— el a arătat graficul și a spus că trade-ul a atins take-profit-ul de două
|
||||
@@ -252,16 +331,77 @@ cu cele mai relevante — pentru că altfel nu au sens pentru cineva care
|
||||
țări</strong>. Ce înseamnă să cadă S&P-ul? Că Fed-ul urcă dobânzile, că inflația e
|
||||
prea mare. Sunt foarte corelate.</p>
|
||||
</blockquote>
|
||||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 230" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="8" y="16" fill="#666">S&P 500, pe zeci de ani ↑</text>
|
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<rect x="130" y="40" width="50" height="150" fill="#fbeaea"/>
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<rect x="230" y="40" width="50" height="150" fill="#fbeaea"/>
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<rect x="330" y="40" width="50" height="150" fill="#fbeaea"/>
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<rect x="430" y="40" width="50" height="150" fill="#fbeaea"/>
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<text x="40" y="212" fill="#c00">zonele roșii = downtrend</text>
|
||||
<text x="230" y="212" fill="#188a3e">restul = uptrend. Raportul nu e nici pe departe egal.</text>
|
||||
<text x="40" y="36" fill="#555">Randamentul mediu pe ultimii ~30 de ani: <tspan style="font-weight:bold">~10% pe an</tspan></text>
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||||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 323" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">S&P 500 — yearly</text>
|
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<text x="572" y="156" fill="#1a5fb4">SMA-10</text>
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<line x1="512.0" y1="108.6" x2="512.0" y2="169.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="507.0" y="117.3" width="10" height="38.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="530.0" y1="110.1" x2="530.0" y2="159.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="525.0" y="117.3" width="10" height="31.1" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="548.0" y1="102.7" x2="548.0" y2="162.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="543.0" y="111.7" width="10" height="36.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="566.0" y1="56.0" x2="566.0" y2="129.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="561.0" y="67.2" width="10" height="44.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="32.0" y="294.9" fill="#555" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">1995</text>
|
||||
<text x="170.0" y="288.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">2000-02</text>
|
||||
<text x="278.0" y="285.7" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">2008</text>
|
||||
<text x="458.0" y="230.1" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">2018</text>
|
||||
<text x="530.0" y="179.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">2022</text>
|
||||
<text x="578.0" y="46.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">2024</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="311" fill="#555">Roșu = ani de scădere (6 din 30). Randamentul mediu: ~10% pe an. Serie construită, ilustrativă.</text>
|
||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
<p><strong>Nuanța:</strong> short-uri <strong>pe termen scurt</strong>, da, e de acord și le face. Pe
|
||||
termen lung, niciodată. Asimetria istorică e prea mare.</p>
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -164,25 +164,104 @@ de aproape 8%, sau la unul cu 1.5%?"
|
||||
|
||||
**Partea tehnică, pe același instrument:**
|
||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 620 394" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="90.0" x2="606" y2="90.0" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="592" y="84.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">TP2 103.40</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="169.2" x2="606" y2="169.2" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="592" y="163.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">TP1 96.20</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="247.3" x2="606" y2="247.3" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="592" y="241.3" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">intrare 89.10</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="302.3" x2="606" y2="302.3" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="592" y="296.3" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL 84.10 — sub low-ul doji-ului</text>
|
||||
<polyline points="24,202.4 102,248.4" fill="none" stroke="#999" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="24" y="190.4" fill="#999">downtrend anterior</text>
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<line x1="110" y1="248.4" x2="110" y2="301.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.5"/>
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<rect x="97" y="250.6" width="26" height="3.3" fill="#188a3e"/>
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||||
<text x="110" y="320.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
|
||||
<line x1="220" y1="198.9" x2="220" y2="252.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.5"/>
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<rect x="207" y="202.2" width="26" height="46.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="220" y="320.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">confirmare</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="340.3" fill="#188a3e">buy doji daily, 14.10 — după ce i-a scuturat pe toți</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="357.3" fill="#188a3e">confirmare — închide peste high-ul doji-ului</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="382" fill="#555">Scară: 1.00 = 11 px. Risc 5.00, TP1 la 1.42R, TP2 la 2.86R — atinse amândouă.</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">UPS — daily</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="56.0" x2="606" y2="56.0" stroke="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="592" y="50.0" fill="none" text-anchor="end"></text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="90.1" x2="606" y2="90.1" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="30" y="84.1" fill="#188a3e">TP2 103.40</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="169.3" x2="606" y2="169.3" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="592" y="163.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">TP1 96.20</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="247.4" x2="606" y2="247.4" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="592" y="241.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">intrare 89.10</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="302.4" x2="606" y2="302.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="592" y="296.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL 84.10 — sub low-ul doji-ului</text>
|
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<rect x="273.5" y="260.6" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="291.0" y1="268.3" x2="291.0" y2="289.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="299.5" y="283.2" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="304.0" y="320.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
|
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<rect x="364.5" y="219.9" width="9" height="7.7" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="434.0" y="205.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP1</text>
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<text x="563.0" y="127.7" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">TP2</text>
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<text x="24" y="340.4" fill="#188a3e">buy doji daily, 14.10 — după ce i-a scuturat pe toți</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="357.4" fill="#188a3e">confirmare — închide peste high-ul doji-ului; intrare la close, 89.10</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="382" fill="#555">Scară: 1.00 = 11 px. Risc 5.00, TP1 la 1.42R, TP2 la 2.86R — atinse amândouă. Punctat: SMA-20.</text>
|
||||
</svg>
|
||||
|
||||
**Nivelurile sunt reconstruite de mine** pe scara UPS din perioada discutată
|
||||
@@ -234,16 +313,77 @@ Argument pe care nu l-am mai văzut formulat așa în curs:
|
||||
> țări**. Ce înseamnă să cadă S&P-ul? Că Fed-ul urcă dobânzile, că inflația e
|
||||
> prea mare. Sunt foarte corelate.
|
||||
|
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<svg viewBox="0 0 620 230" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
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<text x="8" y="16" fill="#666">S&P 500, pe zeci de ani ↑</text>
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<rect x="130" y="40" width="50" height="150" fill="#fbeaea"/>
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<rect x="230" y="40" width="50" height="150" fill="#fbeaea"/>
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<rect x="330" y="40" width="50" height="150" fill="#fbeaea"/>
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<rect x="430" y="40" width="50" height="150" fill="#fbeaea"/>
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<text x="40" y="212" fill="#c00">zonele roșii = downtrend</text>
|
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<text x="230" y="212" fill="#188a3e">restul = uptrend. Raportul nu e nici pe departe egal.</text>
|
||||
<text x="40" y="36" fill="#555">Randamentul mediu pe ultimii ~30 de ani: <tspan style="font-weight:bold">~10% pe an</tspan></text>
|
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<svg viewBox="0 0 620 323" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">S&P 500 — yearly</text>
|
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<text x="572" y="156" fill="#1a5fb4">SMA-10</text>
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<rect x="561.0" y="67.2" width="10" height="44.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="32.0" y="294.9" fill="#555" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">1995</text>
|
||||
<text x="170.0" y="288.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">2000-02</text>
|
||||
<text x="278.0" y="285.7" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">2008</text>
|
||||
<text x="458.0" y="230.1" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">2018</text>
|
||||
<text x="530.0" y="179.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">2022</text>
|
||||
<text x="578.0" y="46.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">2024</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="311" fill="#555">Roșu = ani de scădere (6 din 30). Randamentul mediu: ~10% pe an. Serie construită, ilustrativă.</text>
|
||||
</svg>
|
||||
|
||||
**Nuanța:** short-uri **pe termen scurt**, da, e de acord și le face. Pe
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -30,57 +30,228 @@ confirmat</strong> și rămâi în tranzacție până când o candelă îl viole
|
||||
<p><strong>Problema, pe care a arătat-o live:</strong> nu știi unde e swing low-ul atunci
|
||||
când ai nevoie de el.</p>
|
||||
<h3 id="cand-afli-de-fapt-ca-un-minim-e-swing-low">Când afli, de fapt, că un minim e swing low</h3>
|
||||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 300" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="8" y="16" fill="#666">preț ↑</text>
|
||||
<polyline points="40,180 90,140 140,205 190,150 240,110 290,130 340,80 390,100 440,55 500,40" fill="none" stroke="#333" stroke-width="2"/>
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<circle cx="140" cy="205" r="6" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<text x="60" y="240" fill="#c00">minimul se formează aici</text>
|
||||
<line x1="90" y1="140" x2="330" y2="140" stroke="#888" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="3 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="336" y="144" fill="#555">high-ul dinaintea minimului</text>
|
||||
<circle cx="240" cy="110" r="5" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||||
<text x="215" y="92" fill="#188a3e">a doua candelă peste acel high</text>
|
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<line x1="240" y1="116" x2="240" y2="250" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="3 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="248" y="262" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">abia AICI știi că minimul de dinainte era swing low</text>
|
||||
<text x="40" y="288" fill="#333">Confirmarea vine cu întârziere. Nu poți muta stop-ul la un swing low în momentul în care se formează.</text>
|
||||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 339" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">GOOGL — daily</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="102.4" x2="606" y2="102.4" stroke="#888" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="96.4" fill="#888">high-ul dinaintea minimului 244.60</text>
|
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<rect x="39.0" y="264.0" width="10" height="8.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="55.0" y="243.2" width="10" height="20.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="396.0" y1="59.2" x2="396.0" y2="84.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="391.0" y="67.2" width="10" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="412.0" y1="68.8" x2="412.0" y2="91.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="407.0" y="76.8" width="10" height="6.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="428.0" y1="57.6" x2="428.0" y2="91.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="423.0" y="65.6" width="10" height="17.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="444.0" y1="57.6" x2="444.0" y2="81.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="439.0" y="65.6" width="10" height="8.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="460.0" y1="56.0" x2="460.0" y2="81.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="455.0" y="64.0" width="10" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="300.0" y="183.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">minimul se formează aici</text>
|
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<text x="380.0" y="35.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">a doua candelă care închide peste acel high</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="302.0" fill="#188a3e">abia AICI știi că minimul de dinainte era swing low</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="327" fill="#555">Confirmarea vine cu întârziere. Nu poți muta stop-ul la un swing low în momentul în care se formează.</text>
|
||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
<p><strong>Consecința practică:</strong> între momentul în care ieși la TP1 și momentul în
|
||||
care ai primul swing low confirmat, stop-ul tău stă <strong>la breakeven</strong>. Nu ai
|
||||
unde altundeva să-l pui.</p>
|
||||
<h3 id="a-doua-problema-swing-low-ul-poate-fi-sub-intrarea-ta">A doua problemă: swing low-ul poate fi sub intrarea ta</h3>
|
||||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 290" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="8" y="16" fill="#666">preț ↑</text>
|
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<line x1="30" y1="150" x2="600" y2="150" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.5"/>
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<text x="34" y="144" fill="#1a1a1a">intrarea ta (= breakeven)</text>
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<circle cx="145" cy="185" r="6" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="80" y="215" fill="#c00">primul swing low — SUB intrare</text>
|
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<text x="80" y="233" fill="#c00">nu îl poți folosi: ți-ai pune stopul pe pierdere</text>
|
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<circle cx="295" cy="115" r="6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="310" y="112" fill="#188a3e">al doilea swing low — peste intrare</text>
|
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<text x="310" y="130" fill="#188a3e">abia ăsta e utilizabil</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="272" fill="#333">Până apare unul peste intrare, restul poziției rămâne pur și simplu la breakeven. Asta e tot.</text>
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 428" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">GOOGL — daily</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="228.8" x2="606" y2="228.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray=""/>
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<text x="30" y="222.8" fill="#1a1a1a">intrarea ta (= breakeven) 250.00</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="186.9" x2="606" y2="186.9" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="180.9" fill="#188a3e">swing low 2: 252.33 = +0.93%</text>
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<rect x="39.0" y="354.8" width="10" height="9.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="62.0" y1="329.6" x2="62.0" y2="360.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="57.0" y="335.0" width="10" height="19.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="80.0" y1="329.6" x2="80.0" y2="349.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="75.0" y="335.0" width="10" height="9.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="458.0" y1="155.0" x2="458.0" y2="186.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="476.0" y1="153.2" x2="476.0" y2="183.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="471.0" y="158.6" width="10" height="19.3" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="494.0" y1="129.8" x2="494.0" y2="164.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="489.0" y="135.2" width="10" height="23.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="512.0" y1="104.6" x2="512.0" y2="140.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="507.0" y="110.0" width="10" height="25.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="530.0" y1="79.4" x2="530.0" y2="115.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="525.0" y="84.8" width="10" height="25.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="548.0" y1="56.0" x2="548.0" y2="90.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="543.0" y="61.4" width="10" height="23.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="314.0" y="265.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 1</text>
|
||||
<text x="458.0" y="206.9" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">abia ăsta e utilizabil</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="391.2" fill="#c00">primul swing low e SUB intrare — nu îl poți folosi: ți-ai pune stopul pe pierdere</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="416" fill="#555">Până apare unul peste intrare, restul poziției rămâne pur și simplu la breakeven. Asta e tot.</text>
|
||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
<p><strong>Cifra din exemplul lui pe Google:</strong> distanța de la breakeven până la primul
|
||||
swing low utilizabil a fost <strong>0.93%</strong> — sub 1%. Adică ai stat și ai așteptat
|
||||
pentru o îmbunătățire minusculă a stopului. E prețul metodei.</p>
|
||||
<h3 id="cum-arata-trailing-ul-pas-cu-pas">Cum arată trailing-ul, pas cu pas</h3>
|
||||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 336" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="8" y="16" fill="#666">preț ↑</text>
|
||||
<polyline points="40,250 80,215 120,265 160,200 200,150 240,175 280,110 320,140 360,70 400,95 440,45 490,30 540,75 590,130" fill="none" stroke="#333" stroke-width="2"/>
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<line x1="30" y1="265" x2="600" y2="265" stroke="#888" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="34" y="280" fill="#888">1. breakeven — aici stă stopul până apare primul swing low utilizabil</text>
|
||||
<circle cx="240" cy="175" r="5" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||||
<line x1="230" y1="175" x2="600" y2="175" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="470" y="170" fill="#188a3e">2. stop mutat aici</text>
|
||||
<circle cx="320" cy="140" r="5" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||||
<line x1="310" y1="140" x2="600" y2="140" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="470" y="135" fill="#188a3e">3. apoi aici</text>
|
||||
<circle cx="400" cy="95" r="5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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||||
<line x1="390" y1="95" x2="600" y2="95" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="470" y="90" fill="#188a3e">4. apoi aici</text>
|
||||
<circle cx="540" cy="75" r="6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||||
<text x="320" y="318" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">5. candela violează ultimul swing low → ieși</text>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="300" fill="#333">Fiecare treaptă e un swing low deja confirmat prin două candele.</text>
|
||||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 394" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">GOOGL — daily</text>
|
||||
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|
||||
<text x="592" y="241.1" fill="#888" text-anchor="end">1. după TP1: breakeven 250.00, până la primul swing low utilizabil</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="221.1" x2="606" y2="221.1" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="215.1" fill="#188a3e">2. stop mutat aici — 252.00</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="175.6" x2="606" y2="175.6" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="169.6" fill="#188a3e">3. apoi aici — 255.50</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="130.1" x2="606" y2="130.1" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="124.1" fill="#188a3e">4. apoi aici — 259.00</text>
|
||||
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<rect x="39.0" y="325.1" width="10" height="6.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="60.0" y1="305.6" x2="60.0" y2="329.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="55.0" y="309.5" width="10" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="76.0" y1="305.6" x2="76.0" y2="319.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="71.0" y="309.5" width="10" height="6.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="92.0" y1="291.3" x2="92.0" y2="319.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="87.0" y="295.2" width="10" height="20.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="108.0" y1="275.7" x2="108.0" y2="299.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="103.0" y="279.6" width="10" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="124.0" y1="275.7" x2="124.0" y2="290.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="119.0" y="279.6" width="10" height="6.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="140.0" y1="264.0" x2="140.0" y2="290.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="135.0" y="267.9" width="10" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="156.0" y1="252.3" x2="156.0" y2="271.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="151.0" y="256.2" width="10" height="11.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="172.0" y1="243.2" x2="172.0" y2="260.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="167.0" y="247.1" width="10" height="9.1" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="199.0" y="209.4" width="10" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="236.0" y1="191.2" x2="236.0" y2="210.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="231.0" y="195.1" width="10" height="11.7" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="268.0" y1="196.4" x2="268.0" y2="218.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="263.0" y="200.3" width="10" height="14.3" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="584.0" y="163.1" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">5. ieși</text>
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<text x="24" y="357.5" fill="#c00">5. candela violează ultimul swing low → ieși</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="382" fill="#555">Fiecare treaptă e un swing low deja confirmat prin două candele.</text>
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</svg></p>
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<p><strong>Unde funcționează, și unde nu</strong> — precizarea lui, care scutește frustrare:</p>
|
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<blockquote>
|
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@@ -142,18 +313,87 @@ să-ți rămână ceva cu care să stai în trend.</p>
|
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<h2 id="avertismentul-despre-higher-highs-higher-lows">Avertismentul despre higher highs / higher lows</h2>
|
||||
<p>Precizare pe care n-am mai văzut-o formulată așa în curs, și care
|
||||
contrazice o citire naivă a structurii de trend:</p>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 308" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="8" y="16" fill="#666">preț ↑</text>
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<text x="34" y="184" fill="#c00">swing low minor</text>
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<text x="34" y="233" fill="#b06000" style="font-weight:bold">swing low MAJOR — ăsta contează</text>
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<text x="120" y="278" fill="#c00">cade sub cel minor — lumea shortează aici</text>
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<text x="410" y="240" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">dar nu-l atinge pe cel major,</text>
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<text x="410" y="258" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">și de aici pleacă în sus</text>
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<text x="30" y="300" fill="#333">Un trail pus pe swing low-ul minor te scoate. Unul pus pe cel major, nu.</text>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 340" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">GOOGL — daily</text>
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<text x="592" y="292.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">swing low MAJOR 240.00 — ăsta contează</text>
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<text x="480.0" y="273.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">cade sub cel minor — lumea shortează aici</text>
|
||||
<text x="597.0" y="46.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">dar nu-l atinge pe cel major — și de aici pleacă în sus</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="328" fill="#555">Un trail pus pe swing low-ul minor te scoate. Unul pus pe cel major, nu.</text>
|
||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
<p>Formularea lui: „de asta nu dau doi bani pe higher highs / higher lows la un
|
||||
anumit moment" — nu pentru că structura ar fi greșită, ci pentru că <strong>nivelul
|
||||
@@ -168,19 +408,88 @@ din drum, muți stopul la 50%" — de ce 50 și nu altceva?</p>
|
||||
50% din drum <strong>în interiorul</strong> unei candele de 15 minute, graficul de 15
|
||||
minute nu-ți spune. Trebuie să cobori pe <strong>1 minut</strong>, în interiorul fiecărei
|
||||
candele de 15, și să urmărești cum s-a mișcat prețul.</p>
|
||||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 250" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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||||
<text x="25" y="22" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Ce vezi pe 15 minute</text>
|
||||
<line x1="80" y1="50" x2="80" y2="130" stroke="#333" stroke-width="1.5"/>
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<rect x="68" y="62" width="24" height="56" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="115" y="80" fill="#555">o candelă verde. Atât.</text>
|
||||
<text x="115" y="100" fill="#555">Nu știi pe unde a trecut prețul înăuntru.</text>
|
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<line x1="25" y1="150" x2="600" y2="150" stroke="#ddd"/>
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<text x="25" y="174" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Ce vezi pe 1 minut, în interiorul ei</text>
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<text x="338" y="196" fill="#b06000">50% din drum — atins aici, apoi pierdut</text>
|
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<text x="338" y="222" fill="#333">Abia acum știi dacă regula de „mută la 50%"</text>
|
||||
<text x="338" y="240" fill="#333">te-ar fi scos sau nu.</text>
|
||||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 210" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">GOOGL — 15 min</text>
|
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<text x="250.0" y="169.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">15 min #1</text>
|
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<text x="370.0" y="169.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">15 min #2</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="189.4" fill="#188a3e">o candelă verde. Atât. Nu știi pe unde a trecut prețul înăuntru.</text>
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||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 304" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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||||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">GOOGL — 1 min, în interiorul lor</text>
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||||
<text x="592" y="90.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">251.00 — 50% din drum (intrare 250.00 → TP 252.00)</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="256.0" x2="606" y2="256.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="592" y="250.0" fill="#1a1a1a" text-anchor="end">intrare 250.00</text>
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<line x1="44.0" y1="233.6" x2="44.0" y2="262.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="39.0" y="240.0" width="10" height="16.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="62.0" y1="209.6" x2="62.0" y2="246.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="57.0" y="216.0" width="10" height="24.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="80.0" y1="185.6" x2="80.0" y2="222.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="75.0" y="192.0" width="10" height="24.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="98.0" y1="161.6" x2="98.0" y2="198.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="93.0" y="168.0" width="10" height="24.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="116.0" y1="137.6" x2="116.0" y2="174.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="111.0" y="144.0" width="10" height="24.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="113.6" x2="134.0" y2="150.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.0" y="120.0" width="10" height="24.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="152.0" y1="92.8" x2="152.0" y2="126.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="147.0" y="99.2" width="10" height="20.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="170.0" y1="92.8" x2="170.0" y2="118.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="165.0" y="99.2" width="10" height="12.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="188.0" y1="105.6" x2="188.0" y2="142.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="183.0" y="112.0" width="10" height="24.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="206.0" y1="129.6" x2="206.0" y2="166.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="201.0" y="136.0" width="10" height="24.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="242.0" y1="169.6" x2="242.0" y2="198.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="237.0" y="176.0" width="10" height="16.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="260.0" y1="177.6" x2="260.0" y2="198.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="255.0" y="184.0" width="10" height="8.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="278.0" y1="161.6" x2="278.0" y2="190.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="273.0" y="168.0" width="10" height="16.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="296.0" y1="150.4" x2="296.0" y2="174.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="291.0" y="156.8" width="10" height="11.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="309.0" y="144.0" width="10" height="12.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="332.0" y1="124.8" x2="332.0" y2="150.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="327.0" y="131.2" width="10" height="12.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="350.0" y1="124.8" x2="350.0" y2="156.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="345.0" y="131.2" width="10" height="19.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="368.0" y1="144.0" x2="368.0" y2="169.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="363.0" y="150.4" width="10" height="12.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="386.0" y1="137.6" x2="386.0" y2="169.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="381.0" y="144.0" width="10" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="404.0" y1="118.4" x2="404.0" y2="150.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="399.0" y="124.8" width="10" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="422.0" y1="105.6" x2="422.0" y2="131.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="417.0" y="112.0" width="10" height="12.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="440.0" y1="105.6" x2="440.0" y2="128.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="435.0" y="112.0" width="10" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="458.0" y1="115.2" x2="458.0" y2="142.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="453.0" y="121.6" width="10" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="476.0" y1="121.6" x2="476.0" y2="142.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="471.0" y="128.0" width="10" height="8.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="494.0" y1="102.4" x2="494.0" y2="134.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="489.0" y="108.8" width="10" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="512.0" y1="102.4" x2="512.0" y2="124.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="507.0" y="108.8" width="10" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="530.0" y1="112.0" x2="530.0" y2="137.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="525.0" y="118.4" width="10" height="12.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="548.0" y1="115.2" x2="548.0" y2="137.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="543.0" y="121.6" width="10" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="566.0" y1="105.6" x2="566.0" y2="128.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="561.0" y="112.0" width="10" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="152.0" y="82.8" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">atins aici</text>
|
||||
<text x="296.0" y="194.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">apoi pierdut</text>
|
||||
<text x="476.0" y="162.4" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">15 min #2: nu-l mai atinge</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="292" fill="#555">Abia acum știi dacă regula de „mută la 50%” te-ar fi scos sau nu.</text>
|
||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
<p><strong>Cât durează:</strong> „o să-ți ia niște luni, poate jumate de an." A automatizat
|
||||
ulterior părți din proces — TradeStation poate face backtest intraday, dar
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -19,18 +19,68 @@ când ai nevoie de el.
|
||||
|
||||
### Când afli, de fapt, că un minim e swing low
|
||||
|
||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 620 300" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="8" y="16" fill="#666">preț ↑</text>
|
||||
<polyline points="40,180 90,140 140,205 190,150 240,110 290,130 340,80 390,100 440,55 500,40" fill="none" stroke="#333" stroke-width="2"/>
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<circle cx="140" cy="205" r="6" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<text x="60" y="240" fill="#c00">minimul se formează aici</text>
|
||||
<line x1="90" y1="140" x2="330" y2="140" stroke="#888" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="3 3"/>
|
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<text x="336" y="144" fill="#555">high-ul dinaintea minimului</text>
|
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<circle cx="240" cy="110" r="5" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||||
<text x="215" y="92" fill="#188a3e">a doua candelă peste acel high</text>
|
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<line x1="240" y1="116" x2="240" y2="250" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="3 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="248" y="262" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">abia AICI știi că minimul de dinainte era swing low</text>
|
||||
<text x="40" y="288" fill="#333">Confirmarea vine cu întârziere. Nu poți muta stop-ul la un swing low în momentul în care se formează.</text>
|
||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 620 339" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">GOOGL — daily</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="102.4" x2="606" y2="102.4" stroke="#888" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="96.4" fill="#888">high-ul dinaintea minimului 244.60</text>
|
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<line x1="44.0" y1="256.0" x2="44.0" y2="280.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="39.0" y="264.0" width="10" height="8.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="60.0" y1="235.2" x2="60.0" y2="272.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="55.0" y="243.2" width="10" height="20.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="76.0" y1="235.2" x2="76.0" y2="262.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="71.0" y="243.2" width="10" height="11.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="92.0" y1="217.6" x2="92.0" y2="262.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="87.0" y="225.6" width="10" height="28.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="108.0" y1="196.8" x2="108.0" y2="233.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="103.0" y="204.8" width="10" height="20.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="124.0" y1="182.4" x2="124.0" y2="212.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="119.0" y="190.4" width="10" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="140.0" y1="168.0" x2="140.0" y2="198.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="135.0" y="176.0" width="10" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="156.0" y1="148.8" x2="156.0" y2="184.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="151.0" y="156.8" width="10" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="172.0" y1="128.0" x2="172.0" y2="164.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="167.0" y="136.0" width="10" height="20.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="188.0" y1="118.4" x2="188.0" y2="144.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="183.0" y="126.4" width="10" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="204.0" y1="94.4" x2="204.0" y2="134.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="199.0" y="102.4" width="10" height="24.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="220.0" y1="75.2" x2="220.0" y2="110.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="215.0" y="83.2" width="10" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="236.0" y1="64.0" x2="236.0" y2="91.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="231.0" y="72.0" width="10" height="11.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="252.0" y1="64.0" x2="252.0" y2="100.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="247.0" y="72.0" width="10" height="20.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="268.0" y1="84.8" x2="268.0" y2="118.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="263.0" y="92.8" width="10" height="17.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="284.0" y1="102.4" x2="284.0" y2="136.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="279.0" y="110.4" width="10" height="17.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="300.0" y1="120.0" x2="300.0" y2="163.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="295.0" y="128.0" width="10" height="22.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="316.0" y1="129.6" x2="316.0" y2="158.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="311.0" y="137.6" width="10" height="12.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="332.0" y1="112.0" x2="332.0" y2="145.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="327.0" y="120.0" width="10" height="17.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="348.0" y1="99.2" x2="348.0" y2="128.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="343.0" y="107.2" width="10" height="12.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="364.0" y1="81.6" x2="364.0" y2="115.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="359.0" y="89.6" width="10" height="17.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="380.0" y1="59.2" x2="380.0" y2="97.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="375.0" y="67.2" width="10" height="22.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="396.0" y1="59.2" x2="396.0" y2="84.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="391.0" y="67.2" width="10" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
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||||
<line x1="412.0" y1="68.8" x2="412.0" y2="91.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="407.0" y="76.8" width="10" height="6.4" fill="#c00"/>
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||||
<line x1="428.0" y1="57.6" x2="428.0" y2="91.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="423.0" y="65.6" width="10" height="17.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||||
<line x1="444.0" y1="57.6" x2="444.0" y2="81.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="439.0" y="65.6" width="10" height="8.0" fill="#c00"/>
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||||
<line x1="460.0" y1="56.0" x2="460.0" y2="81.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="455.0" y="64.0" width="10" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||||
<text x="300.0" y="183.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">minimul se formează aici</text>
|
||||
<text x="380.0" y="35.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">a doua candelă care închide peste acel high</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="302.0" fill="#188a3e">abia AICI știi că minimul de dinainte era swing low</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="327" fill="#555">Confirmarea vine cu întârziere. Nu poți muta stop-ul la un swing low în momentul în care se formează.</text>
|
||||
</svg>
|
||||
|
||||
**Consecința practică:** între momentul în care ieși la TP1 și momentul în
|
||||
@@ -39,18 +89,74 @@ unde altundeva să-l pui.
|
||||
|
||||
### A doua problemă: swing low-ul poate fi sub intrarea ta
|
||||
|
||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 620 290" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="8" y="16" fill="#666">preț ↑</text>
|
||||
<line x1="30" y1="150" x2="600" y2="150" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.5"/>
|
||||
<text x="34" y="144" fill="#1a1a1a">intrarea ta (= breakeven)</text>
|
||||
<polyline points="45,160 95,120 145,185 195,130 245,95 295,115 345,60 395,80 445,40" fill="none" stroke="#333" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||||
<circle cx="145" cy="185" r="6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||||
<text x="80" y="215" fill="#c00">primul swing low — SUB intrare</text>
|
||||
<text x="80" y="233" fill="#c00">nu îl poți folosi: ți-ai pune stopul pe pierdere</text>
|
||||
<circle cx="295" cy="115" r="6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||||
<text x="310" y="112" fill="#188a3e">al doilea swing low — peste intrare</text>
|
||||
<text x="310" y="130" fill="#188a3e">abia ăsta e utilizabil</text>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="272" fill="#333">Până apare unul peste intrare, restul poziției rămâne pur și simplu la breakeven. Asta e tot.</text>
|
||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 620 428" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">GOOGL — daily</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="228.8" x2="606" y2="228.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray=""/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="222.8" fill="#1a1a1a">intrarea ta (= breakeven) 250.00</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="186.9" x2="606" y2="186.9" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="180.9" fill="#188a3e">swing low 2: 252.33 = +0.93%</text>
|
||||
<line x1="44.0" y1="349.4" x2="44.0" y2="369.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||||
<rect x="39.0" y="354.8" width="10" height="9.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||||
<line x1="62.0" y1="329.6" x2="62.0" y2="360.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||||
<rect x="57.0" y="335.0" width="10" height="19.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||||
<line x1="80.0" y1="329.6" x2="80.0" y2="349.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||||
<rect x="75.0" y="335.0" width="10" height="9.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||||
<line x1="98.0" y1="313.4" x2="98.0" y2="349.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="471.0" y="158.6" width="10" height="19.3" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="489.0" y="135.2" width="10" height="23.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="512.0" y1="104.6" x2="512.0" y2="140.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="507.0" y="110.0" width="10" height="25.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="530.0" y1="79.4" x2="530.0" y2="115.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="525.0" y="84.8" width="10" height="25.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="548.0" y1="56.0" x2="548.0" y2="90.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="543.0" y="61.4" width="10" height="23.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="314.0" y="265.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 1</text>
|
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<text x="458.0" y="206.9" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">abia ăsta e utilizabil</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="391.2" fill="#c00">primul swing low e SUB intrare — nu îl poți folosi: ți-ai pune stopul pe pierdere</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="416" fill="#555">Până apare unul peste intrare, restul poziției rămâne pur și simplu la breakeven. Asta e tot.</text>
|
||||
</svg>
|
||||
|
||||
**Cifra din exemplul lui pe Google:** distanța de la breakeven până la primul
|
||||
@@ -59,23 +165,88 @@ pentru o îmbunătățire minusculă a stopului. E prețul metodei.
|
||||
|
||||
### Cum arată trailing-ul, pas cu pas
|
||||
|
||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 620 336" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="8" y="16" fill="#666">preț ↑</text>
|
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<polyline points="40,250 80,215 120,265 160,200 200,150 240,175 280,110 320,140 360,70 400,95 440,45 490,30 540,75 590,130" fill="none" stroke="#333" stroke-width="2"/>
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<line x1="30" y1="265" x2="600" y2="265" stroke="#888" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="34" y="280" fill="#888">1. breakeven — aici stă stopul până apare primul swing low utilizabil</text>
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<circle cx="240" cy="175" r="5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="230" y1="175" x2="600" y2="175" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="470" y="170" fill="#188a3e">2. stop mutat aici</text>
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<circle cx="320" cy="140" r="5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="310" y1="140" x2="600" y2="140" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="470" y="135" fill="#188a3e">3. apoi aici</text>
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<circle cx="400" cy="95" r="5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="390" y1="95" x2="600" y2="95" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="470" y="90" fill="#188a3e">4. apoi aici</text>
|
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<circle cx="540" cy="75" r="6" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="320" y="318" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">5. candela violează ultimul swing low → ieși</text>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="300" fill="#333">Fiecare treaptă e un swing low deja confirmat prin două candele.</text>
|
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<svg viewBox="0 0 620 394" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">GOOGL — daily</text>
|
||||
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<text x="592" y="241.1" fill="#888" text-anchor="end">1. după TP1: breakeven 250.00, până la primul swing low utilizabil</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="221.1" x2="606" y2="221.1" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="215.1" fill="#188a3e">2. stop mutat aici — 252.00</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="175.6" x2="606" y2="175.6" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="169.6" fill="#188a3e">3. apoi aici — 255.50</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="130.1" x2="606" y2="130.1" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="124.1" fill="#188a3e">4. apoi aici — 259.00</text>
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<rect x="39.0" y="325.1" width="10" height="6.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="55.0" y="309.5" width="10" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="71.0" y="309.5" width="10" height="6.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="103.0" y="279.6" width="10" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="124.0" y1="275.7" x2="124.0" y2="290.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="119.0" y="279.6" width="10" height="6.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="140.0" y1="264.0" x2="140.0" y2="290.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="231.0" y="195.1" width="10" height="11.7" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="279.0" y="182.1" width="10" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="311.0" y="152.2" width="10" height="11.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="332.0" y1="148.3" x2="332.0" y2="170.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="327.0" y="152.2" width="10" height="14.3" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="348.0" y1="162.6" x2="348.0" y2="175.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="343.0" y="166.5" width="10" height="3.9" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="364.0" y1="149.6" x2="364.0" y2="174.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="359.0" y="153.5" width="10" height="16.9" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="380.0" y1="131.4" x2="380.0" y2="157.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="375.0" y="135.3" width="10" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="396.0" y1="111.9" x2="396.0" y2="139.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="391.0" y="115.8" width="10" height="19.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="412.0" y1="97.6" x2="412.0" y2="119.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="407.0" y="101.5" width="10" height="14.3" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="428.0" y1="97.6" x2="428.0" y2="117.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="423.0" y="101.5" width="10" height="11.7" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="444.0" y1="109.3" x2="444.0" y2="130.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="439.0" y="113.2" width="10" height="11.7" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="460.0" y1="102.8" x2="460.0" y2="128.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="455.0" y="106.7" width="10" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="476.0" y1="84.6" x2="476.0" y2="110.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="471.0" y="88.5" width="10" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||||
<line x1="492.0" y1="67.7" x2="492.0" y2="92.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="487.0" y="71.6" width="10" height="16.9" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||||
<line x1="508.0" y1="56.0" x2="508.0" y2="75.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||||
<rect x="503.0" y="59.9" width="10" height="11.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||||
<line x1="524.0" y1="56.0" x2="524.0" y2="82.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||||
<rect x="519.0" y="59.9" width="10" height="18.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||||
<line x1="540.0" y1="74.2" x2="540.0" y2="102.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||||
<rect x="535.0" y="78.1" width="10" height="20.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||||
<line x1="556.0" y1="95.0" x2="556.0" y2="126.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||||
<rect x="551.0" y="98.9" width="10" height="23.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||||
<line x1="572.0" y1="118.4" x2="572.0" y2="143.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||||
<rect x="567.0" y="122.3" width="10" height="16.9" fill="#c00"/>
|
||||
<text x="220.0" y="181.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP1</text>
|
||||
<text x="584.0" y="163.1" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">5. ieși</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="357.5" fill="#c00">5. candela violează ultimul swing low → ieși</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="382" fill="#555">Fiecare treaptă e un swing low deja confirmat prin două candele.</text>
|
||||
</svg>
|
||||
|
||||
**Unde funcționează, și unde nu** — precizarea lui, care scutește frustrare:
|
||||
@@ -127,18 +298,87 @@ să-ți rămână ceva cu care să stai în trend.
|
||||
Precizare pe care n-am mai văzut-o formulată așa în curs, și care
|
||||
contrazice o citire naivă a structurii de trend:
|
||||
|
||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 620 308" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="8" y="16" fill="#666">preț ↑</text>
|
||||
<polyline points="40,90 90,140 140,100 190,165 240,120 290,185 340,150 390,205 430,150 480,100 540,60" fill="none" stroke="#333" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||||
<line x1="30" y1="190" x2="600" y2="190" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="34" y="184" fill="#c00">swing low minor</text>
|
||||
<line x1="30" y1="215" x2="600" y2="215" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||||
<text x="34" y="233" fill="#b06000" style="font-weight:bold">swing low MAJOR — ăsta contează</text>
|
||||
<circle cx="390" cy="205" r="6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||||
<text x="120" y="278" fill="#c00">cade sub cel minor — lumea shortează aici</text>
|
||||
<text x="410" y="240" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">dar nu-l atinge pe cel major,</text>
|
||||
<text x="410" y="258" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">și de aici pleacă în sus</text>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="300" fill="#333">Un trail pus pe swing low-ul minor te scoate. Unul pus pe cel major, nu.</text>
|
||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 620 340" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">GOOGL — daily</text>
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<text x="592" y="292.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">swing low MAJOR 240.00 — ăsta contează</text>
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<text x="480.0" y="273.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">cade sub cel minor — lumea shortează aici</text>
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<text x="597.0" y="46.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">dar nu-l atinge pe cel major — și de aici pleacă în sus</text>
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<text x="24" y="328" fill="#555">Un trail pus pe swing low-ul minor te scoate. Unul pus pe cel major, nu.</text>
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</svg>
|
||||
|
||||
Formularea lui: „de asta nu dau doi bani pe higher highs / higher lows la un
|
||||
@@ -160,19 +400,89 @@ din drum, muți stopul la 50%" — de ce 50 și nu altceva?
|
||||
minute nu-ți spune. Trebuie să cobori pe **1 minut**, în interiorul fiecărei
|
||||
candele de 15, și să urmărești cum s-a mișcat prețul.
|
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<text x="25" y="22" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Ce vezi pe 15 minute</text>
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<text x="115" y="80" fill="#555">o candelă verde. Atât.</text>
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<text x="115" y="100" fill="#555">Nu știi pe unde a trecut prețul înăuntru.</text>
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<text x="25" y="174" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Ce vezi pe 1 minut, în interiorul ei</text>
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<text x="338" y="196" fill="#b06000">50% din drum — atins aici, apoi pierdut</text>
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<text x="338" y="222" fill="#333">Abia acum știi dacă regula de „mută la 50%"</text>
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<text x="338" y="240" fill="#333">te-ar fi scos sau nu.</text>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">GOOGL — 15 min</text>
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<text x="250.0" y="169.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">15 min #1</text>
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<text x="370.0" y="169.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">15 min #2</text>
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<text x="24" y="189.4" fill="#188a3e">o candelă verde. Atât. Nu știi pe unde a trecut prețul înăuntru.</text>
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</svg>
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|
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">GOOGL — 1 min, în interiorul lor</text>
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<text x="592" y="90.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">251.00 — 50% din drum (intrare 250.00 → TP 252.00)</text>
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<text x="592" y="250.0" fill="#1a1a1a" text-anchor="end">intrare 250.00</text>
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<line x1="548.0" y1="115.2" x2="548.0" y2="137.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="543.0" y="121.6" width="10" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="566.0" y1="105.6" x2="566.0" y2="128.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="561.0" y="112.0" width="10" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="152.0" y="82.8" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">atins aici</text>
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||||
<text x="296.0" y="194.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">apoi pierdut</text>
|
||||
<text x="476.0" y="162.4" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">15 min #2: nu-l mai atinge</text>
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||||
<text x="24" y="292" fill="#555">Abia acum știi dacă regula de „mută la 50%” te-ar fi scos sau nu.</text>
|
||||
</svg>
|
||||
|
||||
**Cât durează:** „o să-ți ia niște luni, poate jumate de an." A automatizat
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user