a500c0b7b9
Geometrie: bara etichetata "bearish engulfing" nu era engulfing, pentru
ca deschidea sub open-ul unei bare tot rosii; acum inghite o bara verde.
Pe aceeasi diagrama si pe cea cu marubozu, short-ul si SL-ul erau exact
la low, desi textul spune "sub low" — corectate, cu TP la exact 2R.
Continut: exemplul dat pentru 3 la 1 ("400 la 100") e de fapt 4 la 1.
Ideea cu EUR/USD la VUAA era declarata drept completare a mea, dar
venise de la un cursant in sesiune. Observatia despre scanerele pornite
in loturi e tot a cursantului, nu sfatul lui. Regula celor doua inchideri
era numita "semnal de context, nu trigger", desi el arata intrarea chiar
dupa a doua inchidere. Plus un citat trunchiat si doua completari
nedeclarate.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01MtSTyTmt6AbCL9j5ajEDm1
1310 lines
89 KiB
Markdown
1310 lines
89 KiB
Markdown
# Q&A 08.07.2025 — pivotul pe două zile, breakdown-uri capcană, volumul intraday, ETF-uri și VIX
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Sesiune de ~2 ore, prima după vacanța lui Bogdan. Mai jos, doar întrebările cu
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valoare de învățare, grupate pe subiect (nu în ordinea din înregistrare). Ce am
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lăsat afară e listat la final.
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---
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## Stop-loss-ul se pune pe platforma unde execuți, nu pe TradeStation
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Situația din sală: semnal de buy doji pe TradeStation, trade executat pe MT5,
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stop-loss pus la 19.80, citit sub doji. Pe MT5 însă low-ul doji-ului era "mai
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jos de 9,80" — deci stop-ul a fost atins, după care prețul a plecat în direcția
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bună.
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Răspunsul lui: "TrayStation îți dă doar semnalul, dar Stop Loss-ul și asta le
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pui în funcție de ce ai tu." Și, mai scurt: "tu trebuie să pui din Candele unde
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execuți. Nu Candele unde faci decizia."
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**De ce diferă candelele între platforme:** broker-ul CFD/MT5 îți arată
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propriul flux de prețuri (cu spread-ul lui inclus), nu tranzacțiile de pe
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bursă. Low-ul de la broker poate fi câțiva cenți sub cel de pe bursă. Plus că unele
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platforme cotează instrumentul în euro, iar TradeStation în dolari — atunci
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nivelurile nici nu se pot compara direct.
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**Ce faci:** decizia (setup, trigger) o iei pe TradeStation; stop-ul îl
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calculezi pe graficul platformei pe care e ordinul, sub low-ul barei **de
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acolo**.
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---
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## Decontarea în TradeStation: contul sub 2.000 $ și regula PDT
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- **Sub 2.000 $ în cont** (cash account): după ce închizi o poziție, banii nu
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sunt disponibili imediat — "nu vezi banii în cont decât peste 2 zile",
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zile lucrătoare.
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- **Peste 2.000 $** (margin account): banii sunt disponibili imediat și primești
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levier 2 peste noapte și 4 în timpul zilei.
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- **Sub 25.000 $:** levierul nu te ajută la day trading, pentru că intri sub
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pattern day trading rule. Formularea lui: "nu faci mai mult de 2 transacții
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în 5 zile lucrătoare dacă nu ai 25 de mii în cont", altfel primești
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restricții. (Regula FINRA exactă e mai jos, la completări.)
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---
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## Futures sau ETF pe commodities: aur, petrol, argint, Russell
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Pe întrebarea "urmărim SPY pe M2D, dar tranzacționăm futures pe aur", a pus
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graficele alăturat:
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| ETF | Futures | Ce a observat |
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|---|---|---|
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| GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) | aur, COMEX | aceeași structură (H&S inversat, breakout) |
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| USO (United States Oil) | crude oil | "aproape identic" ca grafic |
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| SLV | argint | menționat ca echivalent, fără comparație |
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| — | M2K = Russell micro | contractul micro pe Russell |
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- **Diferența practică:** futures merge aproape 24 de ore și are rar gap-uri
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(mai ales peste weekend), ETF-ul are gap-uri la fiecare deschidere.
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- **Date real-time pe futures se plătesc** separat pe exchange (COMEX pentru
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aur). Fără abonament vezi graficul cu întârziere — pe GLD breakout-ul se vedea
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deja, pe futures încă nu.
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- **Lichiditate:** pe futures merită doar indicii, crude oil și aurul.
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Cafea, bumbac, cacao — nu sunt destul de lichide.
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- **3 minute e prea choppy.** Nu recomandă timeframe-ul decât pentru strategia
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lui dedicată.
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### Ținta măsurată: 0.21 adâncime, +0.23, apoi +0.70
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Tot pe un grafic de 3 minute, a măsurat un H&S inversat: adâncimea formației
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0.21, iar din breakout prețul a făcut 0.23 — "și-a făcut TPU". După un pullback
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a continuat până la 0.7 de la breakout: "0,2 ori 3 înseamnă 0,6, aici iau 0,7".
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<svg viewBox="0 0 620 307" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — 3 min</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="217.0" x2="606" y2="217.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="592" y="211.0" fill="#1a1a1a" text-anchor="end">neckline 20.40</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="168.7" x2="606" y2="168.7" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="592" y="162.7" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">1x adâncimea: 20.61</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="72.1" x2="606" y2="72.1" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="66.1" fill="#1a5fb4">3x adâncimea: 21.03</text>
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<rect x="39.5" y="138.8" width="9" height="9.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="55.5" y="148.0" width="9" height="13.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="87.5" y="175.6" width="9" height="13.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="103.5" y="189.4" width="9" height="16.1" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="119.5" y="205.5" width="9" height="20.7" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="140.0" y1="221.6" x2="140.0" y2="244.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="519.5" y="67.5" width="9" height="16.1" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="540.0" y1="56.0" x2="540.0" y2="72.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="535.5" y="60.6" width="9" height="6.9" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="556.0" y1="56.0" x2="556.0" y2="79.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="551.5" y="60.6" width="9" height="13.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="572.0" y1="60.6" x2="572.0" y2="79.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="567.5" y="65.2" width="9" height="9.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="140.0" y="264.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">umăr stâng</text>
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<text x="220.0" y="279.3" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">cap 20.19</text>
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<text x="284.0" y="266.9" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">umăr drept</text>
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<text x="316.0" y="253.1" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">breakout</text>
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<text x="348.0" y="154.1" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">20.63 (+0.23)</text>
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<text x="396.0" y="232.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">pullback</text>
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<text x="552.0" y="46.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">21.10 (+0.70)</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="295" fill="#555">Adâncimea 0.21 / +0.23 / +0.70 sunt ale lui; prețurile sunt construite de mine.</text>
|
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</svg>
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**De ce contează:** ținta de 1x adâncimea e locul unde iei profit parțial (sau
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muți stop-ul pe breakeven), nu locul unde ieși cu tot. Dacă pullback-ul de după
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țintă ține deasupra neckline-ului (aici low-ul pullback-ului rămâne peste
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20.40), mișcarea poate merge la 2x-3x adâncimea.
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|
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---
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## Semnal timpuriu de schimbare de trend: două închideri daily consecutive față de pivot
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Regula, "pe care v-am mai spus-o de-a lungul timpului":
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- **La top:** după o urcare agresivă, **două zile consecutive** în care prețul
|
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**se închide sub pivotul daily** = primul semnal de schimbare de trend. Cu
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pivoții deja unul sub altul, se poate ajunge la MP² short.
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- **La bottom:** fix invers — două zile consecutive cu închidere **deasupra**
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pivotului daily = schimbare bull.
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Pe exemplul lui, intrarea după a doua închidere deasupra pivotului ar fi fost
|
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"la 2% de bottom" — aproape de minimul absolut, fără să ghicești bottom-ul.
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|
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<svg viewBox="0 0 620 394" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
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||
<polyline points="52.0,90.7 68.0,90.7 68.0,109.3 84.0,109.3 84.0,126.7 100.0,126.7 100.0,148.0 116.0,148.0 116.0,168.0 132.0,168.0 132.0,188.7 148.0,188.7 148.0,209.3 164.0,209.3 164.0,234.7 180.0,234.7 180.0,260.0 196.0,260.0 196.0,289.3 212.0,289.3 212.0,306.7 228.0,306.7 228.0,301.3 244.0,301.3 244.0,302.0 260.0,302.0 260.0,300.0 276.0,300.0 276.0,300.7 292.0,300.7 292.0,294.0 308.0,294.0 308.0,282.0 324.0,282.0 324.0,263.3 340.0,263.3 340.0,234.7 356.0,234.7 356.0,206.7 372.0,206.7 372.0,176.7 388.0,176.7 388.0,154.0 404.0,154.0 404.0,137.3 420.0,137.3 420.0,116.0 436.0,116.0 436.0,96.0 452.0,96.0 452.0,79.3 468.0,79.3 468.0,67.3 484.0,67.3 484.0,73.3 500.0,73.3 500.0,72.7 516.0,72.7 516.0,82.0 532.0,82.0 532.0,102.7 548.0,102.7 548.0,124.7 564.0,124.7 564.0,144.0 580.0,144.0 580.0,167.3 596.0,167.3" fill="none" stroke="#777" stroke-width="1.5"/>
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<text x="30" y="312.0" fill="#c00">bottom absolut 97.90</text>
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<text x="24" y="340.0" fill="#188a3e">2 închideri peste pivot (barele 1, 2) → long 99.90, la 2.04% de bottom-ul 97.90</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="357.0" fill="#c00">2 închideri sub pivot (barele 1, 2) după urcare → short 108.30</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="382" fill="#555">Linia gri în trepte = pivotul daily (H+L+C)/3 al zilei anterioare. Prețurile sunt construite.</text>
|
||
</svg>
|
||
|
||
**Mecanismul:** pivotul daily e (high + low + close) / 3 al zilei anterioare —
|
||
prețul "de echilibru" al zilei trecute. O singură închidere de partea cealaltă
|
||
poate fi zgomot. Două la rând înseamnă că de două ori cine a controlat finalul
|
||
zilei a împins prețul peste (sau sub) echilibrul zilei precedente. La bottom,
|
||
cei care au cumpărat în consolidare sunt pe plus și nu mai vând, iar
|
||
short-urile deschise în scădere încep să fie pe minus și trebuie acoperite.
|
||
|
||
**Ce faci când îl vezi:** el a arătat intrarea chiar după a doua închidere
|
||
("Se putea intra și aici"). Pe diagramă închiderea de la 99.90 e la 2.04% de bottom-ul 97.90; stop-ul logic ar sta sub
|
||
bottom-ul absolut (completarea mea — el nu a dat stop pentru acest exemplu).
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Breakdown sub swing low: când e capcană și când e short
|
||
|
||
### NU: breakdown în suport dublu (pivot + swing low)
|
||
|
||
Pe SPY, pe 5 minute: prețul coboară sub un swing low care coincide cu pivotul.
|
||
Cine nu știe de pivot vede "breakdown sub low, short". A mers câțiva ticks și
|
||
s-a întors brusc.
|
||
|
||
Mecanismul, cum l-a explicat: unii au shortat la "2 tics, 3 tics sub pivot",
|
||
ordinele de short s-au executat, "și băieții deștepți erau aici: bang, long,
|
||
întoarcem înapoi". Cei prinși short trebuie să cumpere ca să iasă — de aici
|
||
viteza revenirii (short squeeze). Rejecturile astea apar "ori la un breakdown
|
||
sub un swing low, cum a fost aici, ori la o linie importantă cum e pivotul"; aici erau amândouă.
|
||
|
||
<svg viewBox="0 0 620 468" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — 5 min</text>
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<text x="30" y="317.0" fill="#1a5fb4">pivot daily 100.00 = swing low</text>
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<text x="24" y="350.5" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
<text x="129.0" y="73.0" fill="#1a1a1a" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">high of the day</text>
|
||
<text x="384.0" y="344.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">99.95: 5 ticks sub → shorturi prinse → short squeeze</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="456" fill="#555">NU: breakdown în suport dublu (pivot + swing low). Prețurile sunt construite.</text>
|
||
</svg>
|
||
|
||
**Regula practică:** nu shortezi un breakdown care cade direct pe un pivot
|
||
(daily, weekly). "Nu erai nebun să shortez la suport." Pe 60 de minute a arătat
|
||
același tipar: breakdown sub swing low, "a mers 4-5 stic și mumu", pentru că
|
||
dedesubt erau pivoții weekly.
|
||
|
||
### DA: double top, engulfing bearish, bear flag respins în rezistență
|
||
|
||
Pe un grafic de 60 de minute a arătat cazul în care short-ul era corect:
|
||
|
||
- **double top** cu al doilea vârf puțin mai jos: 20,292.20 și 20,290.99;
|
||
- **divergență pe volum** între cele două vârfuri;
|
||
- **candelă engulfing bearish** — "Cu așa ceva nu te joci";
|
||
- apoi un **bear flag** (mini-structură cu higher highs / higher lows) care
|
||
păcălește — și se respinge "tot în resistance".
|
||
|
||
<svg viewBox="0 0 620 523" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — 60 min</text>
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<text x="592" y="120.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL 20240.00 (peste rezistența 20230, fost suport)</text>
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<text x="30" y="205.0" fill="#1a1a1a">short 20155</text>
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<text x="30" y="375.0" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 19985.00 = 2R</text>
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||
<text x="24" y="405.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
<text x="163.0" y="63.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">20292.20</text>
|
||
<text x="282.0" y="65.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">20290.99</text>
|
||
<text x="316.0" y="226.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">bearish engulfing</text>
|
||
<text x="418.0" y="233.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">bear flag</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="511" fill="#555">DA: cele două vârfuri sunt ale lui; restul prețurilor și SL/TP sunt construite de mine.</text>
|
||
</svg>
|
||
|
||
Pe diagramă (planul de trade e al meu, el nu a dat cifre): short la 20155,
|
||
sub low-ul flag-ului (20156); stop la 20240, peste rezistența de 20230 (fostul
|
||
suport unde s-a oprit flag-ul); risc 85, țintă 19985 = 2R.
|
||
|
||
Diferența față de cazul NU: aici dedesubt nu e un suport major care să prindă
|
||
short-urile, iar deasupra e fostul suport devenit rezistență — stop-ul are un
|
||
nivel clar care invalidează ideea.
|
||
|
||
### De ce nu lucrează cu trend lines
|
||
|
||
Pe aceeași zonă, liniile de trend trase "old school" dădeau un megafon —
|
||
"asta înseamnă volatilitate, nu ai ceva clar". Despre cei care trag linii toată
|
||
ziua: "Probabilistic dacă te uiți / Merge odată din 10".
|
||
|
||
Legat de asta, ideea de win rate: poți face bani și cu un win rate prost, dacă
|
||
pierderile sunt mici și câștigurile mari. Exemplul lui: Richard Dennis, cu un
|
||
win rate de 25% "sau sub 20%". "Adică când pierzi trebuie să pierzi puțin."
|
||
|
||
| Win rate | Pierdere medie | Câștig mediu | Rezultat pe 10 trade-uri |
|
||
|---|---|---|---|
|
||
| 25% | −1R | +4R | 7.5 × (−1) + 2.5 × 4 = **+2.5R** |
|
||
| 25% | −1R | +2R | 7.5 × (−1) + 2.5 × 2 = **−2.5R** |
|
||
| 60% | −1R | +1R | 4 × (−1) + 6 × 1 = **+2R** |
|
||
|
||
(Tabelul e al meu, ca să se vadă aritmetica.)
|
||
|
||
**Contextul de piață la data sesiunii**, în opinia lui: buy the dip
|
||
mentality, "În continuare e strong bull piață / Nu ai de ce să shortezi".
|
||
Primul short serios abia când apare MP² 1.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Volumul intraday "ca gura omului" și breakout-ul peste high of the day
|
||
|
||
"Volumul în ziua de tranzacționare e exact ca cum este gura omului": doi canini
|
||
mari la capete, dinți mici la mijloc.
|
||
|
||
- **16:30–18:30** (primele 2 ore) — volum mare.
|
||
- **mijlocul zilei** — consolidare, "spectaculos nu prea se întâmplă".
|
||
- **21:00–23:00** (ultimele 2 ore) — volum mare din nou.
|
||
|
||
A arătat asta pe Tesla, 15 minute: volumul pe prima și pe ultima candelă.
|
||
|
||
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||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — 15 min, o zi</text>
|
||
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||
<text x="30" y="122.0" fill="#1a1a1a">high of the day 51.15</text>
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<rect x="457.0" y="375.5" width="10" height="21.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="501.0" y="365.7" width="10" height="30.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="523.0" y="346.1" width="10" height="50.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="545.0" y="350.3" width="10" height="46.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="567.0" y="347.5" width="10" height="49.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="589.0" y="334.9" width="10" height="61.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<text x="24" y="320.5" fill="#555">volum (15 min, ora României)</text>
|
||
<text x="32.0" y="305.5" fill="#555" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">16:30</text>
|
||
<text x="220.0" y="200.5" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">18:30</text>
|
||
<text x="440.0" y="190.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">21:00</text>
|
||
<text x="606.0" y="122.5" fill="#555" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">23:00</text>
|
||
<text x="528.0" y="69.5" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">breakout cu volum</text>
|
||
<text x="308.0" y="140.0" fill="#888" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">consolidare</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="426" fill="#555">Forma volumului e a lui (primele 2 ore și ultimele 2); prețurile sunt construite.</text>
|
||
</svg>
|
||
|
||
**Breakout peste high of the day — cum îl tranzacționează:** aștepți
|
||
breakout-ul peste high-ul zilei **cu volum**, apoi intri la pullback.
|
||
Recomandă să cauți asta mai ales după consolidări; exemplul din ziua
|
||
anterioară a fost un breakout la final de zi, la ora 23, dar cu volum.
|
||
Atenție: pe SPY, în aceeași sesiune, un breakout peste high of the day a
|
||
fost respins, pentru că volumul nu a trecut peste vârful de volum de la
|
||
high-ul zilei.
|
||
|
||
**De ce contează ora:** un breakout la mijlocul zilei, pe volum mic, n-are cine
|
||
să-l ducă mai departe — participanții mari lucrează la deschidere și la
|
||
închidere. Același breakout în primele sau ultimele două ore are în spate
|
||
ordinele care mută prețul.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Relative volume: RVOL peste 100% și pullback-ul de a doua zi
|
||
|
||
A comparat volumul standard cu indicatorul lor de relative volume (volumul barei
|
||
față de o medie — linia portocalie, în transcriere "EVRIS 10", probabil o medie
|
||
pe 10 bare). Pe un buy hammer pe Tesla, 15 minute,
|
||
volumul standard arăta un downtrend, iar al lor un uptrend de acumulare. "Care e
|
||
majmaker? Miseria asta sau asta de jos?"
|
||
|
||
**Utilizarea la final de zi, pentru daily:** în RadarScreen cauți ce are RVOL
|
||
peste 100% (110, 120, 140%) **și** semnal de buy. Dacă în plus candela se
|
||
închide aproape de high, "sunt mari șanse ca și a doua zi să bubuie".
|
||
|
||
**Capcana de a doua zi:** după un breakout masiv, a doua zi la deschidere
|
||
prețul adesea scade — marcare de profit. "Normal, dacă tu ai fi intrat aici /
|
||
Nu ai fi marcat și tu după canlele de genul asta / Măcar jumătate". De aici
|
||
pullback-ul la 1/3 sau 1/2 din marubozu, care e de fapt zona de intrare.
|
||
|
||
<svg viewBox="0 0 620 500" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="128.0" x2="606" y2="128.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="122.0" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 43.70 = 2R</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="260.0" x2="606" y2="260.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="254.0" fill="#1a1a1a">intrare 41.50 = 1/2 din corpul marubozu</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="326.0" x2="606" y2="326.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="592" y="320.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL 40.40 (sub low-ul marubozu, 40.45)</text>
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<line x1="44.0" y1="326.0" x2="44.0" y2="362.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="39.0" y="338.0" width="10" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="64.0" y1="308.0" x2="64.0" y2="350.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="59.0" y="320.0" width="10" height="18.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="84.0" y1="308.0" x2="84.0" y2="356.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="79.0" y="320.0" width="10" height="24.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="104.0" y1="314.0" x2="104.0" y2="356.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="99.0" y="326.0" width="10" height="18.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="124.0" y1="314.0" x2="124.0" y2="362.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="119.0" y="326.0" width="10" height="24.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="144.0" y1="320.0" x2="144.0" y2="362.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="139.0" y="332.0" width="10" height="18.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="302.0" x2="164.0" y2="344.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="159.0" y="314.0" width="10" height="18.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="184.0" y1="302.0" x2="184.0" y2="350.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="179.0" y="314.0" width="10" height="24.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="204.0" y1="308.0" x2="204.0" y2="350.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="199.0" y="320.0" width="10" height="18.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="224.0" y1="308.0" x2="224.0" y2="344.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="219.0" y="320.0" width="10" height="12.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="244.0" y1="296.0" x2="244.0" y2="344.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="239.0" y="308.0" width="10" height="24.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="264.0" y1="296.0" x2="264.0" y2="338.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="259.0" y="308.0" width="10" height="18.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="284.0" y1="302.0" x2="284.0" y2="338.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="279.0" y="314.0" width="10" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="304.0" y1="302.0" x2="304.0" y2="332.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="299.0" y="314.0" width="10" height="6.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="324.0" y1="197.0" x2="324.0" y2="323.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="319.0" y="200.0" width="10" height="120.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="344.0" y1="182.0" x2="344.0" y2="230.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="339.0" y="200.0" width="10" height="18.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="364.0" y1="206.0" x2="364.0" y2="260.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="359.0" y="218.0" width="10" height="36.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="384.0" y1="224.0" x2="384.0" y2="266.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="379.0" y="236.0" width="10" height="18.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="404.0" y1="194.0" x2="404.0" y2="248.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="399.0" y="206.0" width="10" height="30.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="424.0" y1="164.0" x2="424.0" y2="218.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="419.0" y="176.0" width="10" height="30.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="444.0" y1="140.0" x2="444.0" y2="188.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="439.0" y="152.0" width="10" height="24.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="464.0" y1="140.0" x2="464.0" y2="176.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="459.0" y="152.0" width="10" height="12.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="484.0" y1="122.0" x2="484.0" y2="176.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="479.0" y="134.0" width="10" height="30.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="504.0" y1="98.0" x2="504.0" y2="146.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="499.0" y="110.0" width="10" height="24.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="524.0" y1="80.0" x2="524.0" y2="122.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="519.0" y="92.0" width="10" height="18.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="544.0" y1="62.0" x2="544.0" y2="104.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="539.0" y="74.0" width="10" height="18.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="564.0" y1="56.0" x2="564.0" y2="86.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="559.0" y="68.0" width="10" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="24" y1="458.0" x2="606" y2="458.0" stroke="#888"/>
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<rect x="39.0" y="410.3" width="10" height="47.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="59.0" y="407.1" width="10" height="50.9" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="79.0" y="413.5" width="10" height="44.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="99.0" y="408.7" width="10" height="49.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="119.0" y="411.9" width="10" height="46.1" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="139.0" y="410.3" width="10" height="47.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="159.0" y="405.5" width="10" height="52.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="179.0" y="413.5" width="10" height="44.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="199.0" y="408.7" width="10" height="49.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="219.0" y="410.3" width="10" height="47.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="239.0" y="407.1" width="10" height="50.9" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="259.0" y="411.9" width="10" height="46.1" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="279.0" y="408.7" width="10" height="49.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="299.0" y="410.3" width="10" height="47.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="319.0" y="388.0" width="10" height="70.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="339.0" y="397.5" width="10" height="60.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
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<rect x="359.0" y="403.9" width="10" height="54.1" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="379.0" y="410.3" width="10" height="47.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="399.0" y="407.1" width="10" height="50.9" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="419.0" y="403.9" width="10" height="54.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="439.0" y="405.5" width="10" height="52.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="459.0" y="411.9" width="10" height="46.1" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="479.0" y="403.9" width="10" height="54.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="499.0" y="400.7" width="10" height="57.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="519.0" y="405.5" width="10" height="52.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="539.0" y="402.3" width="10" height="55.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="559.0" y="407.1" width="10" height="50.9" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<text x="24" y="382.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
<text x="324.0" y="181.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">marubozu, RVOL 145%</text>
|
||
<text x="364.0" y="286.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">marcare de profit</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="488" fill="#555">RVOL = volumul barei / media volumului pe 10 zile anterioare. Prețuri construite.</text>
|
||
</svg>
|
||
|
||
**De ce 1/2 din marubozu:** cei care au cumpărat în prima jumătate a candelei
|
||
sunt încă pe plus acolo; cei care au ratat breakout-ul au un preț mai bun.
|
||
Dacă prețul coboară sub low-ul marubozu, toți cumpărătorii din ziua de breakout
|
||
sunt pe minus — ideea e invalidată, de aici stop-ul.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Cine mișcă SPY: capitalizare, advancers/decliners, indice vs ETF
|
||
|
||
### Primele 7-8 companii
|
||
|
||
Sortat după capitalizare în RadarScreen: Nvidia 3,8 trilioane, Microsoft 3,7
|
||
trilioane, Apple pe locul 3, apoi Amazon, cele două clase Google, Meta,
|
||
Broadcom, Berkshire Hathaway, Tesla. S&P 500 întreg: 52,4 trilioane. Concluzia
|
||
lui: "primele 7-8 companii reprezintă 50% din S&P" — și de aceea în day trading
|
||
se uită la Magnificent 7, mai ales la top 3 după capitalizare.
|
||
|
||
### Advancers vs decliners
|
||
|
||
În momentul sesiunii: 299 de companii pe plus, 202 pe minus, 503 în total
|
||
(diferența sunt pe zero). Citirea lui: **bull, nu strong bull**. Strong bull ar
|
||
fi raport de circa 3 la 1 între cele pe plus și cele pe minus ("300 și ceva
|
||
la 100"; a dat și "400 la 100", care e de fapt 4 la 1).
|
||
|
||
### Indicele nu se cumpără; ETF-ul nu se abate de la el
|
||
|
||
- SPX (6234–6235 în sesiune) e **doar un benchmark** — "indicele pur nu se
|
||
poate cumpăra". Se tranzacționează prin ETF (SPY, 621), futures sau opțiuni.
|
||
- Întrebarea din sală: dacă cumperi SPY "ca nebunul", mișcă prețul ETF-ului
|
||
independent de indice? Răspunsul: un retail nu influențează nimic;
|
||
instituționalii intră fragmentat, nu cu toată suma odată; iar un ETF nu poate
|
||
fi +1% cu indicele la +2% — emitentul are obligația din prospect să urmeze
|
||
indicele, "în proporție de 99,9%".
|
||
- Pe QQQ vs NQ, daily: variațiile procentuale diferă puțin într-o zi (0.15 vs
|
||
0.11, parțial din delay), dar structura graficului e aceeași.
|
||
|
||
**Mecanismul care ține ETF-ul lipit de indice** (completarea mea): market
|
||
makerii autorizați pot crea sau răscumpăra unități de ETF în schimbul coșului
|
||
de acțiuni. Dacă SPY ar ajunge mai scump decât acțiunile din el, ei vând SPY și
|
||
cumpără acțiunile până diferența dispare. De aceea cererea mare pe ETF se
|
||
transmite în cumpărări pe acțiunile din indice, nu într-un preț separat.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## ETF-urile cu levier: unde da, unde nu
|
||
|
||
- **Pe ATMI, da** — SPXL și alte ETF-uri cu levier 3, dar doar la suport și
|
||
pivot quarterly. Avertismentul lui: "probabil pe una, două poziții te vei
|
||
duce 80% pierdere", dar intrările vin după pullback-uri mari, deci
|
||
probabilitatea e de partea ta.
|
||
- **Pe investiția lunară din salariu, nu.** "Dacă pui, pui normal, fără
|
||
leviere." Dacă intrai lunar și a venit scăderea de 30% de după alegeri,
|
||
"Te văd 100% pierdere aproape" cu levier 3.
|
||
|
||
**De ce levierul 3 pe o scădere de 30% nu înseamnă simplu −90%** (calculul meu):
|
||
ETF-urile cu levier se reechilibrează zilnic. Dacă indicele scade 30% în 10
|
||
zile egale, fiecare zi e −3.50%, ETF-ul 3x face −10.51% pe zi și ajunge la
|
||
**−67.1%**, nu −90%. Dar cu zile de revenire între scăderi (volatilitate),
|
||
aceeași scădere de 30% a indicelui îl duce mai jos de −67%. Ca să revii de la −67% ai nevoie
|
||
de +203%.
|
||
|
||
**Ce a spus despre construcția lor:** că ETF-urile cu levier "nu sunt listate",
|
||
"nu intră în Order Flow" și sunt administrate prin opțiuni. Vezi corectura la
|
||
completări.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## De ce VUAA nu ține pasul cu SPY — și unde îți ții ETF-urile
|
||
|
||
Adrian are VUAA (Vanguard S&P 500, acumulare) prin Interactive Brokers, cumpărat
|
||
prin octombrie 2023. Pe 19 februarie avea 52.04% randament; acum, cu SPY la
|
||
maxime, e sub 40%. Întrebarea: de ce?
|
||
|
||
Ce a verificat Bogdan în sesiune:
|
||
|
||
- VUAA nu există în TradeStation; echivalentul american e VOO (tot Vanguard).
|
||
- VOO și SPY, măsurate de la același low, dau practic același rezultat (28.61
|
||
vs 28.58–28.60). "Deci sunt identice, frate."
|
||
- Comisionul de administrare nu explică diferența (0,07% la VUAA).
|
||
- Sfatul: măsoară pe platforma unde îl ai, din punctul exact de intrare, și
|
||
citește prospectul.
|
||
|
||
Întrebarea a rămas deschisă în sesiune ("N-am un răspuns pentru chestia asta").
|
||
|
||
**Explicația cea mai probabilă:** cursul EUR/USD. În sesiune cineva a întrebat
|
||
dacă e de la valută ("dolarul a scăzut în relație cu euro", 10-12%); Bogdan a
|
||
răspuns întâi "Nu are de ce să aibă" și a trecut mai departe. Completarea mea: În prima
|
||
jumătate a lui 2025 dolarul a pierdut în jur de 12-13% față de euro. Un
|
||
randament măsurat în euro pe un activ în dolari scade cu aproximativ atât,
|
||
chiar dacă S&P 500 e la maxime în dolari. Diferența de ~12-15 puncte
|
||
procentuale raportată se potrivește cu ordinul ăsta de mărime.
|
||
|
||
**Despre brokeri, opinia lui:**
|
||
|
||
- ETF-urile americane nu se pot cumpăra ca rezident român — trebuie
|
||
echivalentul european (listat de obicei în Germania). Motivul dat de el e
|
||
fiscal; vezi completări.
|
||
- "Nu vă recomand să țineți pe Capital / Sau pe trading 212" — "ăia nu sunt
|
||
broker / Sunt finteciuri". Caută broker cu deținere (Interactive Brokers,
|
||
XTB).
|
||
- Cel mai lichid dintre ETF-urile pe indici: QQQ, SPY, IWM, DIA — "Restul sunt
|
||
apă de ploaie".
|
||
- thinkorswim nu mai e disponibil pentru români; tastytrade da, "E bun pe
|
||
opțiuni".
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Eșalonarea a 10.000 $ pe termen lung
|
||
|
||
Întrebarea: vrei să aduci o sumă mai mare pentru portofoliul pe termen lung,
|
||
dar nu vrei să cumperi tot odată. Cum eșalonezi?
|
||
|
||
**Metoda lui:**
|
||
|
||
1. Te uiți pe SPY weekly, istoric, **cât timp trece între corecțiile mari**. A
|
||
citit câteva perechi de date: circa 3 luni, 2 luni, o lună, 4 luni. Concluzia: "O
|
||
dată la 4 luni s-a întâmplat o corecție mai mare."
|
||
2. Împarți banii **în 4 tranșe** și îi pui într-un an — nu toți 10.000 odată.
|
||
3. Fiecare tranșă (2.500) intră **la suport**, nu la o dată fixă. Suportul
|
||
concret de atunci: pivotul la 571, cu SPY la 620 — un pullback de 8% —
|
||
zonă unde se suprapunea și "linia galbenă".
|
||
|
||
<svg viewBox="0 0 620 316" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">SPY — weekly</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="56.0" x2="606" y2="56.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="592" y="50.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">660 — rezistența din proiecție</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="106.0" x2="606" y2="106.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="100.0" fill="#1a1a1a">620 — prețul la Q&A</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="167.2" x2="606" y2="167.2" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="592" y="161.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">571 — tranșa 1/4</text>
|
||
<line x1="44.0" y1="146.0" x2="44.0" y2="161.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="39.5" y="151.0" width="9" height="5.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="60.0" y1="138.5" x2="60.0" y2="156.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="55.5" y="143.5" width="9" height="7.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="76.0" y1="131.0" x2="76.0" y2="148.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="71.5" y="136.0" width="9" height="7.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="92.0" y1="126.0" x2="92.0" y2="141.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="87.5" y="131.0" width="9" height="5.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="108.0" y1="122.2" x2="108.0" y2="136.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="103.5" y="127.2" width="9" height="3.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="124.0" y1="122.2" x2="124.0" y2="138.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="119.5" y="127.2" width="9" height="6.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="140.0" y1="128.5" x2="140.0" y2="146.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="135.5" y="133.5" width="9" height="7.5" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="156.0" y1="131.0" x2="156.0" y2="146.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="151.5" y="136.0" width="9" height="5.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="172.0" y1="121.0" x2="172.0" y2="141.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="167.5" y="126.0" width="9" height="10.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="188.0" y1="113.5" x2="188.0" y2="131.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="183.5" y="118.5" width="9" height="7.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="204.0" y1="113.5" x2="204.0" y2="128.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="199.5" y="118.5" width="9" height="5.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="220.0" y1="118.5" x2="220.0" y2="138.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="215.5" y="123.5" width="9" height="10.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="236.0" y1="128.5" x2="236.0" y2="156.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="231.5" y="133.5" width="9" height="17.5" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="252.0" y1="146.0" x2="252.0" y2="171.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="247.5" y="151.0" width="9" height="15.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="268.0" y1="161.0" x2="268.0" y2="183.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="263.5" y="166.0" width="9" height="12.5" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="284.0" y1="173.5" x2="284.0" y2="186.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="178.5" width="9" height="2.5" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="300.0" y1="163.5" x2="300.0" y2="186.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="295.5" y="168.5" width="9" height="12.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="316.0" y1="163.5" x2="316.0" y2="186.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="311.5" y="168.5" width="9" height="12.5" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="332.0" y1="176.0" x2="332.0" y2="211.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="327.5" y="181.0" width="9" height="25.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="348.0" y1="198.5" x2="348.0" y2="273.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="343.5" y="206.0" width="9" height="42.5" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="364.0" y1="218.5" x2="364.0" y2="253.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="359.5" y="223.5" width="9" height="25.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="380.0" y1="206.0" x2="380.0" y2="228.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="375.5" y="211.0" width="9" height="12.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="396.0" y1="186.0" x2="396.0" y2="216.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="391.5" y="191.0" width="9" height="20.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="412.0" y1="171.0" x2="412.0" y2="196.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="407.5" y="176.0" width="9" height="15.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="428.0" y1="161.0" x2="428.0" y2="181.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="423.5" y="166.0" width="9" height="10.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="444.0" y1="146.0" x2="444.0" y2="171.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="439.5" y="151.0" width="9" height="15.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="460.0" y1="138.5" x2="460.0" y2="156.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="455.5" y="143.5" width="9" height="7.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="476.0" y1="131.0" x2="476.0" y2="148.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="471.5" y="136.0" width="9" height="7.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="492.0" y1="126.0" x2="492.0" y2="141.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="487.5" y="131.0" width="9" height="5.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="508.0" y1="126.0" x2="508.0" y2="138.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="503.5" y="131.0" width="9" height="2.5" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="524.0" y1="123.5" x2="524.0" y2="138.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="519.5" y="128.5" width="9" height="5.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="540.0" y1="117.2" x2="540.0" y2="133.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="535.5" y="122.2" width="9" height="6.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="556.0" y1="111.0" x2="556.0" y2="127.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="551.5" y="116.0" width="9" height="6.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="572.0" y1="103.5" x2="572.0" y2="121.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="567.5" y="108.5" width="9" height="7.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="588.0" y1="103.5" x2="588.0" y2="116.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="583.5" y="108.5" width="9" height="2.5" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="604.0" y1="101.0" x2="604.0" y2="116.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="599.5" y="106.0" width="9" height="5.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<text x="348.0" y="287.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">corecția din aprilie</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="304" fill="#555">Nivelurile 620 / 571 / 660 sunt ale lui. Barele sunt construite (forma aproximativă), nu date reale.</text>
|
||
</svg>
|
||
|
||
**Context din proiecția quarterly** (în sesiune): proiecție bear pe trimestru,
|
||
dar cu volatilitate foarte mare între rezistență și suport, pe SPY, QQQ și IWM.
|
||
Rezistența pe SPY: 660, deci ordinea poate fi și "urcă întâi la 660, apoi
|
||
pullback". Plus sezonalitatea: a doua jumătate a lui iulie și august sunt
|
||
"strong bear".
|
||
|
||
Argumentul lui că proiecțiile merită urmărite: pe trimestrul anterior
|
||
proiecția bear s-a îndeplinit "ca la carte" — prețul a atins suportul quarterly
|
||
la trei săptămâni după ce se știa unde e.
|
||
|
||
**De ce la suport și nu lunar** (completarea mea): cu 4 intrări la suport, prețul
|
||
mediu e sub media pe care ai obține-o cumpărând lunar, pentru că eviți să cumperi
|
||
în vârfurile dinaintea corecțiilor. Costul: dacă prețul nu mai coboară la suport,
|
||
o parte din bani rămân necheltuiți.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## VIX jos și divergența VIX / SPY
|
||
|
||
**Ce arată VIX:** volatilitatea așteptată pe următoarele 30 de zile, calculată
|
||
din opțiunile pe S&P (mai ales put-uri — lumea se protejează împotriva unei
|
||
căderi). În sesiune: 16,83 — "Nu e a bună, că e foarte jos VIX-ul".
|
||
|
||
**Semnalul de îngrijorare:** "VIX-ul face New Low, Spy-ul nu face New High /
|
||
Și asta este îngrijorător". În mod normal VIX la minim merge cu indicele la
|
||
maxim; când VIX-ul coboară mai jos, dar indicele nu confirmă, indicele "și-a
|
||
cam pierdut în putere".
|
||
|
||
<svg viewBox="0 0 620 295" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — indice, 240 min</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="76.8" x2="606" y2="76.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="70.8" fill="#1a1a1a">high 1: 106.70</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="56.0" x2="606" y2="56.0" stroke="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="592" y="50.0" fill="none" text-anchor="end"></text>
|
||
<line x1="44.0" y1="243.2" x2="44.0" y2="269.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="39.0" y="251.0" width="10" height="10.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="62.0" y1="222.4" x2="62.0" y2="258.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="57.0" y="230.2" width="10" height="20.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="80.0" y1="204.2" x2="80.0" y2="238.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="75.0" y="212.0" width="10" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="98.0" y1="183.4" x2="98.0" y2="219.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="93.0" y="191.2" width="10" height="20.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="116.0" y1="165.2" x2="116.0" y2="199.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="111.0" y="173.0" width="10" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="525.0" y="89.8" width="10" height="10.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="548.0" y1="87.2" x2="548.0" y2="108.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="543.0" y="95.0" width="10" height="5.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="566.0" y1="87.2" x2="566.0" y2="110.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="561.0" y="95.0" width="10" height="7.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="224.0" y="66.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">high</text>
|
||
<text x="512.0" y="68.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">nu face new high</text>
|
||
</svg>
|
||
<svg viewBox="0 0 620 218" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — indicele de volatilitate, 240 min</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="156.6" fill="#1a1a1a">low 1: 17.35</text>
|
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<line x1="44.0" y1="56.0" x2="44.0" y2="71.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="543.0" y="163.9" width="10" height="1.6" fill="#c00"/>
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|
||
<text x="224.0" y="182.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">low 1</text>
|
||
<text x="512.0" y="189.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">new low</text>
|
||
<text x="578.0" y="143.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">doji</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="206" fill="#555">Același interval ca mai sus: volatilitatea face new low, indicele nu face new high.</text>
|
||
</svg>
|
||
|
||
**Ce urmărește concret:**
|
||
|
||
- pe VIX: double bottom cu al doilea picior mai jos, divergență bull, canal
|
||
descendent, un doji pe 240 de minute în formare. Dacă se închide deasupra
|
||
pivotului weekly, "mai are șanse să vedem spike pe VIX";
|
||
- **VXX** (ETF pe VIX, pe care se vede volumul): când trece în **MP4 long**,
|
||
pregătește-te de o corecție în piață;
|
||
- volum în creștere pe VIX = hedging — zonele de consolidare pe indici sunt de
|
||
fapt operațiuni de hedging pe opțiuni.
|
||
|
||
**Repere istorice citate:** VIX 84 la COVID (2020); spike în august 2024, când
|
||
Nikkei a căzut "14 la sut overnight" — atunci a spus live că e bottom; spike la
|
||
tarifele din aprilie. Bear market-ul din 2022 "a început înainte de război",
|
||
din decembrie, pe fondul supraevaluării.
|
||
|
||
**Macro:** PCE contează mai mult decât CPI și PPI, pentru că e cheltuiala de
|
||
consum — prima componentă din PIB.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## TradeStation: scanner vs RadarScreen, reinstalare, liste custom
|
||
|
||
Problema din sală: scanările dădeau foarte puține rezultate sau deloc; au mers
|
||
abia când a deschis doar scanner-ul, fără RadarScreen.
|
||
|
||
- **Nu rula scanner-ul și RadarScreen în paralel.** El lasă scanarea să ruleze
|
||
dimineața (începe la 9, până pe la 11) și abia apoi deschide RadarScreen.
|
||
- **Reinstalează lunar TradeStation**, cu backup înainte: fișierele de cache se
|
||
corup în timp. Software-ul e încă pe 32 de biți.
|
||
- **Maximum 4-5 scanere simultan** (observația cursantului, nu contrazisă de el):
|
||
pornite în loturi, 9:00, 9:15, 9:30. Pornite toate odată rămân în coadă și
|
||
găsesc rezultate incomplete.
|
||
- **Setarea de performanță** în preferințe (folosește toate core-urile) și
|
||
internet de 1 gigabit. Pe 4G i-a consumat 100–200 GB pe săptămână.
|
||
- **Scanează o listă mică, nu tot universul.** Russell 3000 ca listă custom,
|
||
sau doar NYSE (~3.000 de acțiuni) în loc de 13–16 mii. Mai rapid, mai puțină
|
||
memorie, și oricum nu ai timp să te uiți la mai mult.
|
||
- **Dacă tot dă erori:** verifică să nu fi expirat un indicator, și că nu ai
|
||
combinat daily cu 60 de minute pe indicatori diferiți. Testul: pune
|
||
indicatorul în RadarScreen și vezi dacă merge acolo.
|
||
- **Specializează-te pe 1-2 strategii**, nu pe zeci de scanere.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Sectorul fiecărui simbol în RadarScreen; date de pe BVB
|
||
|
||
- **O coloană "din ce ETF sectorial face parte" (XLK, XLV, SMH...) nu există**
|
||
în TradeStation. Clasificarea proprie TradeStation diferă de ETF-uri (ceva
|
||
"technology" poate fi de fapt biotech). Soluția: un tabel în Excel de
|
||
corespondență simbol → ETF, sau "top holdings" din Yahoo Finance.
|
||
A pus pe InfoATM un link unde cauți simbolul și vezi sectorul.
|
||
- **Grafice BVB în TradeStation:** se pot importa ca fișier CSV, doar daily,
|
||
nu live. Fișierul e foarte sensibil — o virgulă greșită pe un rând și nu se
|
||
încarcă nimic. Părerea lui: consumă prea mult timp; mai bine te uiți cu ochiul
|
||
liber.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Menționate pe scurt
|
||
|
||
- **Tesla:** pe termen lung vede un pullback mai agresiv spre 260–250.
|
||
- **Aur pe MP4:** a avut setup long, dar trigger-ul nu s-a îndeplinit; a făcut
|
||
gap down.
|
||
- **Philip Morris:** pullback din suport, apărut pe scanner.
|
||
- **Breakout peste high of the day + pullback** pe SPY, 5 minute, candela de
|
||
16:35: a numit-o "iarăși o strategie interesantă".
|
||
- **Strategie statistică** cu probabilitate "de peste 65%", pe orice
|
||
timeframe — promisă într-una din cele 10 strategii.
|
||
- **Contango** pe VIX (futures deconectat de ETF) — menționat, neexplicat.
|
||
- **Opțiunile:** riscul e mai bine controlat în strategii (butterfly, hedging);
|
||
"dacă ieși pe naked", pierzi mult.
|
||
- **Anecdota M2D:** un cursant cu acces de probă de 30 de zile se plângea că
|
||
semnalele vin târziu și e obosit de stat în fața ecranului. Strategia e
|
||
gândită cu alerte, tocmai ca să nu stai în fața ecranului.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Ce am lăsat afară
|
||
|
||
Circa 10 secvențe fără valoare de învățare: setările de sunet din OBS și Zoom,
|
||
bateria mouse-ului și acumulatorii, microfonul și phantom power pentru Reels,
|
||
amintiri despre Oltchim și Raiffeisen Capital Invest, platformele care îl sună
|
||
pentru colaborări (XTB), prietenul inginer de sunet, vacanța, anunțul că
|
||
următoarea sesiune (marți) prezintă următoarea strategie. Niciun conținut tehnic
|
||
nu a fost eliminat.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## Ce e completare a mea, dincolo de transcriere
|
||
|
||
- **Toate diagramele sunt construite.** Cursul nu livrează imagini. Prețurile
|
||
sunt ale mele, cu excepțiile marcate în legenda fiecărei diagrame: 0.21 /
|
||
0.23 / 0.70 (3 minute), 20,292.20 / 20,290.99 (double top), 620 / 571 / 660
|
||
(SPY). Pe diagrama de double top, SL-ul, intrarea și TP-ul de 2R sunt ale
|
||
mele; pe marubozu, intrarea la 1/2, SL-ul și TP-ul de 2R, plus RVOL calculat
|
||
față de media pe 10 zile (perioada mediei e dedusă din "EVRIS 10"). Pe SPY weekly, barele
|
||
sunt aproximate, nu date reale.
|
||
- Stop-ul sub bottom-ul absolut la regula celor două închideri față de pivot.
|
||
- Explicația cu spread-ul broker-ului la diferența de candele MT5 /
|
||
TradeStation.
|
||
- Mecanismele: de ce două închideri față de pivot contează mai mult decât una,
|
||
de ce short squeeze-ul se întoarce atât de repede, de ce 1/2 din marubozu,
|
||
de ce ora contează la breakout, creation/redemption la ETF-uri.
|
||
- Tabelul de win rate și calculul pentru levierul 3x (−67.1% la −30% în 10 zile
|
||
egale, +203% ca să revii).
|
||
- Cifrele pentru EUR/USD la VUAA (dolarul a scăzut în jur de 12-13% față de euro
|
||
în S1 2025). Ideea cu valuta a fost ridicată în sesiune de un cursant; el a
|
||
respins-o și a rămas fără răspuns.
|
||
- Profitul parțial / breakeven la 1x adâncimea, la ținta măsurată.
|
||
- Diferența DA/NU la breakdown (suport dedesubt vs rezistență deasupra).
|
||
- Argumentul pentru eșalonarea la suport vs lunar.
|
||
|
||
**Corecturi la ce s-a spus în sesiune:**
|
||
|
||
- **Regula PDT:** FINRA te consideră pattern day trader la 4 sau mai multe day
|
||
trades în 5 zile lucrătoare, într-un cont margin sub 25.000 $. Deci poți face
|
||
3, nu doar 2. Ce contează sunt day trade-urile (deschis și închis în aceeași
|
||
zi), nu orice tranzacție.
|
||
- **Aritmetica de capitalizare:** el a adunat primele companii la ~21 de
|
||
trilioane din 52,4 și a zis "undeva la jumătate aproape". 21 / 52,4 = ~40%,
|
||
nu 50%.
|
||
- **Strong bull "300 la 150"** e un raport de 2 la 1, nu de 3 la 1 cum spusese
|
||
cu o frază înainte; iar "400 la 100" e 4 la 1. Am păstrat regula de 3 la 1
|
||
("300 și ceva la 100").
|
||
- **ETF-urile cu levier sunt listate** (SPXL e pe NYSE Arca) și se
|
||
tranzacționează ca orice ETF. Levierul se obține mai ales prin swap-uri și
|
||
futures, nu doar prin opțiuni. Ce e corect în ce a spus: ordinele pe ele nu
|
||
se văd direct pe order flow-ul acțiunilor din indice.
|
||
- **Restricția pe ETF-urile americane** pentru rezidenții UE vine din
|
||
regulamentul PRIIPs: ETF-urile americane nu publică documentul KID cerut în
|
||
UE. Nu e în primul rând o chestiune de rezidență fiscală.
|
||
- **Anecdota cu Mark Douglas și "frații care au blocat piața de aur"** nu am
|
||
verificat-o. Cazul celebru de cornering, frații Hunt (1979-1980), a fost pe
|
||
argint.
|
||
- **Russell E-mini** are simbolul RTY; transcrierea zice "RTU", probabil eroare
|
||
de transcriere.
|
||
|
||
## Referințe
|
||
|
||
- [FINRA — Day Trading (regula pattern day trader)](https://www.finra.org/investors/investing/investment-products/stocks/day-trading)
|
||
- [Cboe — VIX Index](https://www.cboe.com/tradable-products/vix/)
|
||
- [StockCharts ChartSchool — Relative Volume (RVOL)](https://chartschool.stockcharts.com/table-of-contents/technical-indicators-and-overlays/technical-indicators/relative-volume-rvol)
|
||
- [Investopedia — Leveraged ETF](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/leveraged-etf.asp)
|