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atm-curs-dl/summaries/17_STRATEGII/02_mp2.md
Claude Agent 2ea599f265 02_mp2: capitol reconstruit dupa sablon 
Nivelurile 1-2-3, cei 6 pasi cu diagrama fiecare, mini-glosar de 34 de
termeni, oglinda pe short cu diagrama ei proprie, checklist. Sursele in
fise/02_mp2_surse.md.

Toate diagramele procedurii ies acum dintr-o singura serie
(mp2_serie.py), deci capitolul nu mai poate avea doua reguli numerice.
Ansamblul folosea NVDA cu stop la swing low absolut (-23 %), adica alta
regula decat procedura celor 4 bare; NVDA a devenit "bottom", la nivelul
3, marcat explicit ca exceptie.

perechi_tf e diagrama cu doua timeframe-uri: panoul mic e descompunerea
reala a ultimelor 2 candele daily (1 zi = 7 bare de 60 min), cu pivotul
weekly pe ambele panouri si conector. Pivotii se calculeaza din serie, nu
sunt scrisi de mana.

Reparate: trail-ul din proza era 600.05, calculul din serie da 600.75;
doua SVG-uri aveau trimiteri fisier:linie desenate pe ele.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ThN7ixZrowca8aTGrK1MUJ
2026-09-20 12:51:58 +00:00

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# 2. MP² (Strategia 2, pivoți dubli)
**Etichete:** `long` `short` · `swing` / `position` · `acțiuni US` `futures` `BVB` ·
dificultate `3/5` (judecata mea) · merge pe prop (cont finanțat de o firmă): da, cu ajustări ·
merge pe BVB: parțial, doar long
**Cum citești capitolul:** textul e explicația mea a materialului de curs și
nu adaugă reguli peste el; acolo unde materialul nu spune, completez, iar
bucata aceea începe cu **Completare proprie**. Diagramele de la nivelurile 1
și 2 sunt un exemplu construit, fără ticker: traseul e desenat ca cifrele
din material să iasă din serie, iar pivoții se calculează din ea cu formula
cursului. Exemplele cu ticker (SPY, NVDA) au cifrele din curs. Trimiterile
la lecțiile din care vine fiecare pas stau separat, în
[`fise/02_mp2_surse.md`](fise/02_mp2_surse.md).
# Nivelul 1 — Din avion
## Ce face strategia
MP² nu se uită la niciun nivel desenat cu mâna. Se uită la **doi pivoți** —
doi „prețuri medii" calculate, unul pe o perioadă scurtă și unul pe o
perioadă lungă — și la ce poziție are cel scurt față de cel lung. Când cel
scurt trece de deasupra celui lung, prețul mediu al ultimei zile a urcat
peste prețul mediu al ultimei săptămâni: cine a cumpărat săptămâna trecută e
acum, în medie, pe profit, iar cine a vândut e pe pierdere și trebuie să
cumpere înapoi. Asta e traversarea, **crossing-ul**.
Crossing-ul nu e semnal de intrare. E permisiunea. Intri abia la prima bară
care se **închide** de partea corectă a pivotului scurt, pui stopul la
extrema ultimelor 4 bare, iei jumătate din poziție la o țintă egală cu
riscul și lași cealaltă jumătate pe o linie care urcă în urma prețului.
Dă puține semnale — de ordinul a 29 de tranzacții pe an dacă iei numai
crossing-uri — iar cifra raportată în material pentru 2025 e 61,9 % semnale
câștigătoare, cu un câștig mediu de circa 8 %. Deci aproape patru din zece
pierd, și stopul nu e opțional.
Tot trade-ul, pe un exemplu construit:
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<text x="704" y="197.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">pivot daily (mic)</text>
<circle cx="359.5" cy="359.2" r="37.4" fill="none" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.4" stroke-dasharray="3 2"/>
<text x="359.5" y="412.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">crossing</text>
<text x="24" y="54" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit — bare de 60 de minute, 5 ședințe</text>
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<text x="357.5" y="53.0" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">ziua a 4-a: pivotul mic e deja peste cel mare</text>
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<text x="30" y="135.0" fill="#188a3e">TP1 598.00 — poziția 1</text>
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<text x="30" y="237.0" fill="#333">intrarea 592.00</text>
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<text x="30" y="339.0" fill="#c00">stopul 586.00</text>
<line x1="24" y1="379.0" x2="738" y2="379.0" stroke="#777" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="8 4"/>
<text x="724" y="373.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="end">pivot weekly (mare) 584.00</text>
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<rect x="557.5" y="511.0" width="9" height="26.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<text x="24" y="467.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
<line x1="294.0" y1="200.2" x2="404.3" y2="230.2" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.8"/>
<polygon points="412.0,232.2 403.2,234.0 405.3,226.3" fill="#188a3e"/>
<text x="294.0" y="167.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">aici intri: 592.00</text>
<text x="294.0" y="181.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">prima bară care ÎNCHIDE</text>
<text x="294.0" y="195.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">peste pivotul mic</text>
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<polygon points="382.0,349.0 390.7,347.0 388.9,354.8" fill="#c00"/>
<text x="508.0" y="393.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">stopul: 586.00</text>
<text x="508.0" y="407.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">minimul ultimelor 4 bare —</text>
<text x="508.0" y="421.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">sub el, cumpărătorii nu mai au controlul</text>
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<polygon points="465.5,141.0 471.6,134.5 474.4,142.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
<text x="577.5" y="98.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">poziția 1 iese la 598.00:</text>
<text x="577.5" y="112.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">exact cât ai riscat (1:1)</text>
<line x1="585.5" y1="154.5" x2="560.0" y2="117.1" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.8"/>
<polygon points="555.5,110.5 563.3,114.8 556.7,119.3" fill="#b06000"/>
<text x="589.5" y="151.5" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">poziția 2 iese la 599.80,</text>
<text x="589.5" y="165.5" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">prima închidere sub trail</text>
<text x="24" y="567" fill="#555">Crossing: pivotul mic urcă de la 583.20 la 587.13, peste cel mare (584.00) — de-abia de acolo cauți trigger-ul.</text>
</svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: ansamblu -->
De la stânga la dreapta: patru ședințe de câte șapte bare de 60 de minute.
Linia gri e pivotul weekly (cel mare), 584.00, care nu se mișcă toată
săptămâna. Linia albastră în trepte e pivotul daily (cel mic), recalculat
în fiecare ședință: 583.20 în ziua a treia, apoi 587.13 în a patra — acolo
trece peste cel mare, acolo e crossing-ul. Prima bară care se închide peste
587.13 se închide la 592.00: acolo intri. Stopul merge la 586.00, cel mai
jos minim al ultimelor patru bare, deci riști 6.00 pe acțiune. Jumătate din
poziție iese la 598.00, tot la 6.00 distanță. Cealaltă jumătate iese la
599.80, la prima închidere sub linia de trail.
## Fraza de decizie
> Cumpăr când pivotul mic tocmai a trecut peste cel mare (crossing, nu
> continuare) și o bară se închide peste pivotul mic; stopul e la cel mai
> jos minim al ultimelor 4 bare, jumătate din poziție iese la o țintă egală
> cu riscul, iar restul pe trail.
Pe short: vând în lipsă când pivotul mic tocmai a trecut **sub** cel mare și
o bară se închide **sub** pivotul mic, cu stopul deasupra celui mai înalt
maxim al ultimelor 4 bare și cu ținta la aceeași distanță în jos.
## Mini-glosar
- **Bară (candelă)** — un dreptunghi care rezumă o perioadă. Are patru
prețuri: cu cât a deschis perioada (**open**), cu cât a închis (**close**),
cât de sus a urcat (**high**) și cât de jos a coborât (**low**). Corpul e
între open și close, fitilele merg până la high și low.
- **Timeframe (TF)** — cât timp acoperă o bară: pe daily, o ședință; pe
weekly, o săptămână; pe 60 de minute, o oră. O ședință americană ține de
la 9:30 la 16:00, adică 6 ore și jumătate, deci are 7 bare de 60 de
minute, ultima de o jumătate de oră.
- **Pivot (PP)** — prețul de referință al unei perioade **încheiate**:
PP = (High + Low + Close) / 3. Pivotul daily al zilei de azi se calculează
din ziua de ieri; cel weekly, din săptămâna trecută. În exemplul din
capitol: ziua a treia a avut high 588.80, low 584.20 și close 588.40, deci
pivotul zilei a patra e (588.80 + 584.20 + 588.40) / 3 = 587.13.
- **Pivotul mic și pivotul mare** — „mic" e cel al perioadei scurte (daily),
„mare" e cel al perioadei lungi (weekly). Nu se referă la valoare: pivotul
mic poate fi numeric mai mare decât cel mare, și exact asta cauți la long.
- **M** — condiția de poziție relativă: pivotul mic e **peste** cel mare
pentru long, **sub** el pentru short. În exemplu: 587.13 peste 584.00.
- **Crossing** — pivotul mic tocmai a traversat pivotul mare: în perioada
dinainte era de cealaltă parte. În exemplu: 583.20 (dedesubt) în ziua a
treia, 587.13 (deasupra) în a patra. În scaner e valoarea `+2` la long și
`−2` la short.
- **Continuare** — pivotul mic e de partea corectă, dar era acolo și înainte,
nimic nu s-a traversat. În scaner e `+1` / `−1`. Nu e un semnal de căutare.
- **Buy the dip** — cumperi o coborâre scurtă într-un trend care merge deja
în sus. Seamănă cu MP² pe grafic: și acolo o bară se închide peste pivotul
mic. Diferența e că pivotul mic n-a recăzut niciodată sub cel mare, deci
n-a fost nicio traversare. Panoul de jos al diagramei de la pasul 3 e exact
asta.
- **Trigger** — evenimentul care îți dă voie să intri. Aici: o bară care se
**închide** peste (long) sau sub (short) pivotul mic, cu M îndeplinit.
- **Buy momentum (BIM) / sell momentum (SLM)** — săgeata unui indicator
propriu al cursului, care se aprinde o singură dată, la schimbarea de
trend, când prețul trece cu forță printr-un nivel vechi. Când apare fix pe
bara care închide peste pivotul mic, ai două motive în loc de unul. Pe BVB
nu există; îi ține locul o bară obișnuită care închide peste pivot.
- **Long și short** — „long" înseamnă că ai cumpărat și câștigi dacă prețul
urcă. „Short" e invers: vinzi acum acțiuni împrumutate de la broker și le
cumperi înapoi mai târziu, deci câștigi dacă prețul scade.
- **Swing și position** — un swing ține câteva zile (MP² pe daily/weekly stă
1-3 zile); o poziție de tip „position" ține luni sau ani (MP² pe
weekly/monthly sau monthly/quarterly).
- **Stop-loss (SL)** — prețul la care ieși automat cu pierdere, pentru că
ideea s-a dovedit greșită. Îl pui în platformă odată cu intrarea.
- **1R** — cât pierzi pe acțiune dacă te lovește stopul. Intri la 592.00,
stopul e la 586.00, deci 1R = 6.00; „+1,30R" înseamnă 7.80 pe acțiune.
- **Take-profit (TP1)** — prima țintă. Aici e la fix 1R deasupra intrării:
592.00 + 6.00 = 598.00. Asta înseamnă „1:1".
- **Break-even (BE)** — stopul mutat exact la prețul de intrare: de acolo
încolo, cel mai rău caz e să ieși pe zero.
- **Bull trail / bear trail** — o linie care urcă (long) sau coboară (short)
în trepte în urma prețului și nu se întoarce niciodată. La long: low-ul
ultimei bare care a făcut un maxim nou. Ieși la prima bară care se
**închide** de partea greșită a liniei, nu la primul fitil care o atinge.
În exemplu, linia ajunge la 600.75, iar prima bară care se închide sub ea se închide la 599.80.
- **Bull reversal / bear reversal** — chiar momentul în care o bară închide
de partea greșită a liniei de trail. Bear reversal (închidere sub bull
trail) e semnalul de ieșire pentru poziția rămasă la long.
- **Poziții (tranșe)** — poziția împărțită în bucăți care se închid separat:
40 de acțiuni cumpărate ca 20 + 20, ca să poți ieși cu exact jumătate la
prima țintă.
- **Swing low / swing high** — minimul, respectiv maximul, al întregii
mișcări, nu doar al ultimelor bare. În exemplu, swing low-ul e 580.00, cu
6.00 mai jos decât stopul din regulă.
- **Lichiditate** — cât de ușor intri și ieși fără să miști prețul. Se
măsoară în acțiuni tranzacționate pe zi (în SUA) sau în bani rulați pe zi
(la BVB).
- **Gap** — un gol între bare: prețul deschide mult peste sau sub închiderea
precedentă, fără să treacă prin prețurile dintre ele.
- **Spread** — diferența dintre prețul la care poți cumpăra și cel la care
poți vinde în același moment. E un cost, și mănâncă direct din R.
## Cei 6 pași
[1. Perechea de TF și candidatul](#pasul-1) ·
[2. Cei doi pivoți și M](#pasul-2) ·
[3. Crossing, nu buy the dip](#pasul-3) ·
[4. Trigger-ul](#pasul-4) ·
[5. Stopul și mărimea](#pasul-5) ·
[6. Ieșirea](#pasul-6) · apoi [oglinda pe short](#oglinda-short),
[rafinările](#nivelul-3) și [checklist-ul](#checklist).
---
# Nivelul 2 — Procedura mecanică, în 6 pași
Aici nu alegi nimic. Faci pașii în ordine. Dacă un pas nu trece, lași
simbolul și treci la următorul.
<a id="pasul-1"></a>
## Pasul 1 — Alegi perechea de timeframe-uri și deschizi două grafice
**Alegi perechea de pivoți și, odată cu ea, graficul pe care vei intra; apoi
păstrezi doar simbolurile lichide.**
Cursul dă trei perechi, și fiecare vine la pachet cu TF-ul de execuție:
| Perechea de pivoți | Unde intri | Cât ține poziția | Pivoții pe care îi tragi |
|---|---|---|---|
| daily / weekly (MP²-1) | 60 de minute | 1-3 zile | săptămânali |
| weekly / monthly | daily | luni | lunari |
| monthly / quarterly | weekly | 2-3 ani | trimestriali |
Restul capitolului lucrează pe prima linie: pivot daily = mic, pivot weekly
= mare, execuție pe 60 de minute.
Filtrele de simbol se pun înaintea setup-ului, nu după: volum zilnic peste
0,1 milioane de acțiuni și volum mediu peste 1 milion, preț de închidere
peste 10 $. Un simbol pe care nu poți ieși nu e un setup, e o capcană.
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<text x="20.0" y="22.0" fill="#333" style="font-size:13px;font-weight:bold">Pasul 1 — perechea de timeframe-uri: pivoții stau pe daily, intrarea se face pe 60 min</text>
<text x="20.0" y="40.0" fill="#555" style="font-size:11px">Graficul din dreapta e aceeași bucată de piață, mărită: fiecare candelă daily din caseta punctată</text>
<text x="20.0" y="54.0" fill="#555" style="font-size:11px">e desfăcută în 7 bare de 60 de minute (ședința are 6 ore și jumătate, deci ultima bară a zilei e de 30 min).</text>
<text x="20.0" y="78.0" fill="#555" style="font-size:11px">daily: direcția</text>
<text x="365.0" y="78.0" fill="#555" style="font-size:11px">60 min: ultimele 2 candele daily, desfăcute</text>
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<text x="88.0" y="277.8" fill="#666" style="font-size:11px">pivot weekly (mare) 584.00</text>
<text x="140.0" y="292.0" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-size:11px">pivot daily (mic), în trepte</text>
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<text x="36.5" y="290.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-size:11px;font-weight:bold">stop 3,04 %</text>
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<text x="360.5" y="268.8" fill="#999" style="font-size:10px">același preț</text>
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<text x="586.0" y="259.5" fill="#c00" style="font-size:10px">minimul ultimelor</text>
<text x="586.0" y="272.5" fill="#c00" style="font-size:10px">4 bare de 60 min</text>
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<text x="586.0" y="300.5" fill="#666" style="font-size:10px">(mare) 584.00</text>
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<text x="553.5" y="211.5" fill="#c00" style="font-size:11px;font-weight:bold">stop 1,01 %</text>
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<text x="289.2" y="369.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-size:11px;font-weight:bold">→ de 3,0 ori mai multe acțiuni la același risc în bani</text>
<text x="20.0" y="390.0" fill="#555" style="font-size:11px">Pe daily ai fi intrat la close-ul zilei (598.20) cu stopul sub minimul ultimelor 4 zile (580.00).</text>
<text x="20.0" y="404.0" fill="#555" style="font-size:11px">Pe 60 de minute vezi unde s-a oprit coborârea, deci ai de unde măsura un stop mult mai strâns.</text>
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<!-- /DIAGRAMA: perechi_tf -->
În stânga e graficul daily: acolo se vede că pivotul mic a trecut peste cel
mare. În dreapta e aceeași bucată de piață, mărită: fiecare candelă daily
din caseta punctată e desfăcută în cele 7 bare de 60 de minute din care e
făcută, cu același open, același close, același maxim și același minim.
Ghidajele leagă colțurile casetei de colțurile cadrului mic, iar pivotul
weekly, 584.00, e trasat pe amândouă panourile, cu același număr de ambele
părți; conectorul subțire dintre panouri leagă cele două înălțimi ale
aceluiași preț — nu se pot alinia, pentru că scările au pante diferite.
De ce te uiți acolo: pe daily vezi **că** s-a schimbat direcția, dar nu vezi
**unde** s-a oprit coborârea. Dacă ai intra pe daily, ai intra la închiderea
zilei, 598.20, cu stopul sub minimul ultimelor 4 zile, 580.00 — adică 3,04 %
risc. Pe 60 de minute intri la 592.00 cu stopul la 586.00, adică 1,01 %. La
același risc în bani, de trei ori mai multe acțiuni.
**Treci mai departe doar dacă** ai ales perechea, ai deschis graficul pe care
vei intra și simbolul trece filtrele de lichiditate și de preț.
<a id="pasul-2"></a>
## Pasul 2 — Tragi cei doi pivoți și verifici M
**Calculezi sau afișezi pivotul perioadei mici și pe al celei mari și te uiți
care e deasupra.**
Formula e una singură, pentru orice perioadă: PP = (High + Low + Close) / 3,
al perioadei **încheiate**. Platforma îi desenează singură; la BVB îi
calculezi în Excel (mai jos, la transfer).
<!-- DIAGRAMA: pivoti -->
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<text x="24" y="54" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 2 — cei doi pivoți: unde stă cel mic față de cel mare</text>
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<text x="357.5" y="49.0" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">pivotul mic e PESTE cel mare: M îndeplinit</text>
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<text x="692" y="335.7" fill="#777" text-anchor="end">pivot weekly (mare) 584.00 — nu se mișcă toată săptămâna</text>
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<text x="24" y="448.0" fill="#333">Linia albastră în trepte e pivotul daily (mic), recalculat în fiecare ședință; linia gri e pivotul weekly (mare).</text>
<text x="24" y="467.0" fill="#777">Pivotul mare, al săptămânii încheiate: PP = (High + Low + Close) / 3 = (588.00 + 580.00 + 584.00) / 3 = 584.00</text>
<text x="24" y="486.0" fill="#1a5fb4">Pivotul mic al zilei a 4-a, din ziua a 3-a încheiată: (588.80 + 584.20 + 588.40) / 3 = 587.13</text>
<text x="24" y="505.0" fill="#188a3e" style='font-weight:bold'>587.13 este peste 584.00, iar în ziua a 3-a era 583.20, adică dedesubt: M îndeplinit, printr-un crossing proaspăt.</text>
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<!-- /DIAGRAMA: pivoti -->
Cât timp pivotul mic e sub cel mare, nu cauți long: prețul mediu al ultimei
zile e încă sub media săptămânii, adică cei care au cumpărat săptămâna
trecută sunt pe pierdere și vând la prima revenire. Când pivotul mic e
deasupra, rolurile se inversează și ai voie să cauți trigger.
Merge pe orice pereche de pivoți — zilnic/săptămânal, săptămânal/lunar,
lunar/trimestrial. Ce se schimbă e cât ții poziția, nu regula.
**Treci mai departe doar dacă** pivotul mic e peste cel mare (long) sau sub
el (short).
<a id="pasul-3"></a>
## Pasul 3 — Verifici că e crossing proaspăt, nu continuare
**Te uiți la perioada dinainte: pivotul mic trebuie să fi fost de cealaltă
parte a pivotului mare.**
Ăsta e criteriul pe care cursul revine cel mai des, în patru sesiuni de
întrebări diferite: semnalele care au mers erau traversări, cele care n-au
mers erau intrări într-un trend deja pornit. În scaner e diferența dintre
`+2` (crossing) și `+1` (continuare).
<!-- DIAGRAMA: crossing -->
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<rect x="339.5" y="63.6" width="9" height="14.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="24" y="68.0" fill="#777">fără crossing nou; nu a mai căzut sub pivotul mare</text>
<text x="239.0" y="234.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">semnale ulterioare = BUY THE DIP, nu crossing</text></g>
<text x="24" y="576" fill="#555">Pivot weekly 62.00 = linia orizontală (pivotul MARE).</text>
<text x="24" y="593" fill="#555">Pivot daily (cel MIC) se recalculează zilnic și sare pe nivel nou.</text>
<text x="24" y="610" fill="#555">Trigger = prima candelă verde după crossing,</text>
<text x="24" y="627" fill="#555">care închide peste pivotul daily.</text>
<text x="24" y="644" fill="#555">Crossing = pivotul mic traversează 62.00 în sus; fără re-încrucișare,</text>
<text x="24" y="661" fill="#555">semnalele ulterioare sunt buy the dip, nu crossing.</text>
</svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: crossing -->
Diagrama e pe alt simbol, deci are alte prețuri; regulile sunt aceleași. Sus,
pivotul mic urcă de la 61.70 la 62.20 și traversează pivotul mare, 62.00:
crossing. Jos, pivotul mic e de la bun început deasupra lui 62.00 și rămâne
acolo; prețul face închideri peste el, dar nu s-a re-încrucișat nimic, deci
fiecare astfel de închidere e buy the dip, nu MP². Arată aproape la fel și
au statistici diferite.
Continuarea nu e inutilă, dar are un singur context în care are sens: când
ai prins deja un bottom și ești într-un trend nou. Ca listă de scanare,
crossing.
Mai există o capcană de platformă: scanerul vede doar bara **închisă**, deci
îți dă setup-ul cu o bară întârziere. Pe intraday se compensează cu Radar
Screen.
**Treci mai departe doar dacă** pivotul mic era de cealaltă parte în perioada
precedentă. Dacă nu, ești pe altă strategie — lasă simbolul.
<a id="pasul-4"></a>
## Pasul 4 — Aștepți bara care închide de partea corectă
**Notezi pivotul mic și aștepți prima bară care se ÎNCHIDE peste el.**
Nu contează cât de sus urcă bara în timpul ei, contează unde se închide.
Dacă indicatorul de buy momentum se aprinde pe bara aia, cu atât mai bine —
dar trigger-ul e închiderea, nu săgeata. Dacă ești deja într-un trend de
câteva zile și pivotul mic prinde din urmă pivotul mare fără nicio săgeată
nouă, trigger-ul rămâne tot prima închidere peste pivotul mic; altfel n-ai
avea niciodată semnal.
<!-- DIAGRAMA: trigger -->
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<text x="442.0" y="305.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">pivot daily (mic) 587.13</text>
<text x="90.0" y="384.0" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">pivot daily (mic) 583.20</text>
<text x="24" y="54" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 4 — aceeași linie de pivot, trei bare, un singur trigger</text>
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<text x="695" y="347.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="end">pivot weekly (mare) 584.00</text>
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<text x="133.1" y="436.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">NU — prea devreme</text>
<text x="133.1" y="450.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">închide peste pivotul mic, dar pivotul</text>
<text x="133.1" y="464.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">mic (583.20) e încă SUB cel mare (584.00)</text>
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<text x="467.1" y="467.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">NU — n-a închis peste</text>
<text x="467.1" y="481.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">urcă peste 587.13 în timpul barei,</text>
<text x="467.1" y="495.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">dar se închide la 586.30, sub el</text>
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<text x="263.1" y="116.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">DA — trigger</text>
<text x="263.1" y="130.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">prima ÎNCHIDERE (592.00) peste pivotul</text>
<text x="263.1" y="144.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">mic 587.13, cu pivotul mic peste cel mare</text>
<text x="24" y="534" fill="#555">Contează închiderea barei, nu cât de sus a urcat în timpul ei.</text>
</svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: trigger -->
Trei bare, o singură intrare. Prima, verde, închide peste pivotul mic, dar
pivotul mic e încă la 583.20, sub cel mare: M nu e îndeplinit, deci nu e
trigger, oricât de convingătoare arată bara. A doua urcă peste 587.13 în
timpul ei, dar se închide la 586.30, sub el: nu e trigger. A treia se închide
la 592.00, peste 587.13, cu pivotul mic deja peste cel mare: acolo intri.
Dacă primul semnal te-a scos pe stop, ai voie să iei al doilea — dar primul e
cel bun statistic, și nu sări niciunul: probabilitățile strategiei se
calculează pe toate semnalele, nu pe cele pe care le-ai ales tu.
**Treci mai departe doar dacă** o bară s-a închis de partea corectă a
pivotului mic, cu M îndeplinit.
<a id="pasul-5"></a>
## Pasul 5 — Pui stopul și calculezi mărimea poziției
**Numeri 4 bare înapoi, începând cu bara de trigger, iei cel mai jos minim
dintre ele și acolo pui stopul.**
<!-- DIAGRAMA: stop -->
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<text x="516.0" y="299.7" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">2</text>
<text x="496.0" y="299.7" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">3</text>
<text x="476.0" y="299.7" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">4</text>
<text x="24" y="54" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 5 — numeri 4 bare înapoi de la trigger și iei cea mai joasă</text>
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<text x="465.5" y="53.0" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">cele 4 bare pe care le numeri</text>
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<text x="692" y="189.7" fill="#333" text-anchor="end">intrarea 592.00</text>
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<text x="30" y="273.7" fill="#c00">stopul din regulă 586.00 — 1R = 6.00</text>
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<text x="692" y="357.7" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">swing low absolut 580.00</text>
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<text x="376.0" y="382.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">cea mai joasă dintre cele 4: 586.00</text>
<text x="376.0" y="396.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">acolo pui stopul, nu mai jos și nu mai aproape</text>
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<text x="376.0" y="455.7" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">minimul întregii mișcări: 580.00</text>
<text x="376.0" y="469.7" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">asta folosești DOAR la un bottom major,</text>
<text x="376.0" y="483.7" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">când retesturile dese te-ar scoate degeaba — 1R devine 12.00</text>
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<text x="440.0" y="137.1" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">bara de trigger: 592.00</text>
<text x="440.0" y="151.1" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">de aici numeri înapoi</text>
<text x="24" y="525.0" fill="#333">Mărimea poziției: riscul în bani se împarte la distanța până la stop.</text>
<text x="24" y="544.0" fill="#1a5fb4">Cont 50.000 $ × 0.5 % = 250 $ de risc; 250 / 6.00 = 41.7 bucăți → 40 bucăți, adică două ordine de câte 20.</text>
<text x="24" y="563.0" fill="#188a3e">Risc real: 40 × 6.00 = 240 $, adică 0.48 % din cont — sub pragul de 0.5 %.</text>
</svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: stop -->
În exemplu, cele patru bare au minimele 586.60, 586.00, 586.10 și 586.50:
stopul e 586.00, deci 1R = 6.00, adică 1,01 % din preț. Regula e aceeași ca
la [M2D](03_m2d.md), iar cursul nu-i dă o explicație; a mea, prin analogie cu
regula de trail, e că sub acel nivel valul de cumpărare care ținea mișcarea
s-a rupt, deci ideea nu mai e adevărată.
Nu există un procent fix: depinde de cât de volatil e simbolul. Pe SPY,
materialul dă un stop de 3,92 %; pe BRK.B, unul de 0.76 pe acțiune.
Două excepții:
1. **Trigger cu gap.** Dacă bara de trigger deschide cu un gol față de
precedenta, stopul e minimul barei de trigger însăși. Varianta cu stopul
la jumătatea gap-ului e pentru cine are deja experiență.
2. **Bottom sau top major.** Acolo retesturile dese te scot degeaba din
poziție, iar stopul merge la swing low-ul absolut al mișcării — pe desen,
580.00 în loc de 586.00, adică 1R devine 12.00 în loc de 6.00. E o regulă
alternativă a cursului, nu o a doua regulă de zi cu zi: o aplici doar când
știi că ești la un bottom major, și accepți că poziția se înjumătățește.
Mărimea vine din regula de risc: cel mult 0,5 % din cont pe o tranzacție pe
un cont de prop, cel mult 2 % pe cont personal, 1 % când volatilitatea e
mare. Numărul de acțiuni e riscul în bani împărțit la distanța până la stop,
rotunjit în jos la un **multiplu de 2**, ca să poți închide exact jumătate.
> **Completare proprie** (mărimea contului e a mea, pragul de 0,5 % e al
> cursului): pe un cont de 50.000 $ riști cel mult 250 $. La 6.00 pe acțiune,
> 250 / 6.00 = 41,7, deci cumperi 40 de acțiuni, ca două ordine de câte 20.
> Riscul real e 240 $, adică 0,48 % din cont. Ambele ordine au **același**
> stop, deci cele 250 $ se împart între ele, nu se adună.
**Treci mai departe doar dacă** știi prețul exact al stopului, numărul de
acțiuni e un multiplu de 2 și pierderea maximă încape în regula ta de risc.
<a id="pasul-6"></a>
## Pasul 6 — Ieși în două jumătăți: una la 1:1, una pe trail
**Pui prima țintă la aceeași distanță deasupra intrării la care stă stopul
dedesubt, iar a doua jumătate o lași pe linia de trail.**
<!-- DIAGRAMA: iesire -->
<svg viewBox="0 0 720 387" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<polyline points="250.0,183.5 282.0,183.5 282.0,143.5 314.0,143.5 314.0,119.8 346.0,119.8 346.0,106.2 378.0,106.2 410.0,106.2 410.0,94.2 442.0,94.2 474.0,94.2" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.8"/>
<line x1="218.0" y1="181.8" x2="218.0" y2="243.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.4" stroke-dasharray="3 3"/>
<text x="224.0" y="212.4" fill="#b06000" style="font-weight:bold">stopul urcă la break-even</text>
<text x="24" y="54" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 6 — o jumătate la țintă fixă, cealaltă pe trail</text>
<line x1="24" y1="141.0" x2="706" y2="141.0" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
<text x="30" y="135.0" fill="#188a3e">TP1 598.00 = intrarea + 1R</text>
<line x1="24" y1="181.8" x2="706" y2="181.8" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="1 3"/>
<text x="30" y="175.8" fill="#b06000">595.60 = 60 % din drum</text>
<line x1="24" y1="243.0" x2="706" y2="243.0" stroke="#333" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30" y="237.0" fill="#333">intrarea 592.00</text>
<line x1="24" y1="345.0" x2="706" y2="345.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="6 3"/>
<text x="692" y="339.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">stopul inițial 586.00</text>
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<rect x="82.5" y="329.8" width="15" height="10.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="331.5" width="15" height="8.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="154.0" y1="236.2" x2="154.0" y2="336.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="146.5" y="243.0" width="15" height="88.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="186.0" y1="213.3" x2="186.0" y2="249.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="178.5" y="219.2" width="15" height="23.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="218.0" y1="170.8" x2="218.0" y2="226.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="210.5" y="176.8" width="15" height="42.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="250.0" y1="131.7" x2="250.0" y2="183.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="242.5" y="137.6" width="15" height="39.1" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="282.0" y1="107.9" x2="282.0" y2="143.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="274.5" y="113.8" width="15" height="23.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="338.5" y="86.6" width="15" height="13.6" fill="#c00"/>
<line x1="378.0" y1="62.0" x2="378.0" y2="106.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="370.5" y="68.0" width="15" height="32.3" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="410.0" y1="62.0" x2="410.0" y2="94.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="402.5" y="68.0" width="15" height="20.4" fill="#c00"/>
<line x1="442.0" y1="82.4" x2="442.0" y2="116.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="434.5" y="88.3" width="15" height="22.1" fill="#c00"/>
<line x1="474.0" y1="104.5" x2="474.0" y2="131.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="466.5" y="110.5" width="15" height="15.3" fill="#c00"/>
<line x1="140.0" y1="103.0" x2="242.4" y2="134.7" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.8"/>
<polygon points="250.0,137.0 241.2,138.5 243.5,130.9" fill="#188a3e"/>
<text x="140.0" y="84.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">poziția 1 (jumătate) iese la 598.00</text>
<text x="140.0" y="98.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">exact cât riscai: 1:1, fără discuție</text>
<line x1="368.0" y1="268.0" x2="438.4" y2="127.6" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.8"/>
<polygon points="442.0,120.4 442.0,129.3 434.8,125.8" fill="#b06000"/>
<text x="368.0" y="282.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">poziția 2 iese la 599.80</text>
<text x="368.0" y="296.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">prima ÎNCHIDERE sub linia de trail (600.75),</text>
<text x="368.0" y="310.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">nu primul fitil care o atinge = +1.30R</text>
<text x="24" y="375" fill="#555">Linia portocalie = bull trail: low-ul ultimei bare cu maxim nou. Rezultat: +1R pe o jumătate, +1.30R pe cealaltă.</text>
</svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: iesire -->
Ordinea, pe exemplul din diagramă:
1. **La 60 % din drumul spre țintă** — 592.00 + 0,6 × 6.00 = 595.60 — muți
stopul la break-even, adică la 592.00. De acolo încolo nu mai poți pierde.
2. **Prima jumătate iese la 598.00**, exact cât ai riscat. Cursul e categoric
că ținta fixă e 1:1.
3. **A doua jumătate merge pe bull trail.** Linia urcă la low-ul fiecărei bare
care face un maxim nou; ajunge la 600.75, iar prima bară care se **închide**
sub ea se închide la 599.80. Acolo ieși, cu +1,30R.
Pe tot trade-ul: ai riscat 6.00 și ai luat +1R pe o jumătate și +1,30R pe
cealaltă.
Două lucruri de verificat înainte, nu după: că platforma îți permite
închiderea parțială a unei poziții, și că alerta de la TP1 e pusă. Fără
prima, „două poziții" e doar o vorbă.
**Treci la trade-ul următor doar după ce** amândouă jumătățile au ieșit — la
țintă, pe trail sau la stop.
---
<a id="oglinda-short"></a>
# Oglinda — MP² pe short
Exemplul de mai jos e alt simbol, pe altă scară de preț (în jur de 128 $, nu
590 $); structura e aceeași, întoarsă. Pașii sunt aceiași, cu semnele opuse:
- **M**: pivotul mic e **sub** cel mare;
- **crossing**: pivotul mic coboară **prin** cel mare, după ce fusese
deasupra;
- **trigger**: prima bară care se **închide sub** pivotul mic;
- **stopul**: cel mai **sus** maxim din ultimele 4 bare;
- **ținta**: la aceeași distanță, în **jos**; a doua jumătate merge pe bear
trail, linia care coboară în trepte deasupra prețului.
<!-- DIAGRAMA: short -->
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<polyline points="52.0,97.2 67.0,97.2 82.0,97.2 97.0,97.2 112.0,97.2 127.0,97.2 142.0,97.2 157.0,97.2 157.0,88.4 172.0,88.4 187.0,88.4 202.0,88.4 217.0,88.4 232.0,88.4 247.0,88.4 262.0,88.4 262.0,97.2 277.0,97.2 292.0,97.2 307.0,97.2 322.0,97.2 337.0,97.2 352.0,97.2 367.0,97.2 367.0,140.6 382.0,140.6 397.0,140.6 412.0,140.6 427.0,140.6 442.0,140.6 457.0,140.6 472.0,140.6 472.0,218.7 487.0,218.7 502.0,218.7 517.0,218.7 532.0,218.7 547.0,218.7 562.0,218.7" fill="none" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8"/>
<polyline points="457.0,232.5 472.0,232.5 472.0,258.3 487.0,258.3 487.0,273.7 502.0,273.7 502.0,282.5 517.0,282.5 532.0,282.5 532.0,290.2 547.0,290.2 562.0,290.2" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.8"/>
<text x="457.0" y="155.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">128.97: crossing bear</text>
<text x="24" y="54" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Oglinda — Sell / short: alt simbol, altă scară, aceleași reguli</text>
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<text x="357.5" y="115.0" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">pivotul mic e deja SUB cel mare</text>
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<text x="743" y="100.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="end">pivot weekly (mare) 129.60</text>
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<text x="743" y="122.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">stopul 129.20</text>
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<text x="743" y="188.0" fill="#333" text-anchor="end">intrarea (short) 128.00</text>
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<text x="30" y="254.0" fill="#188a3e">TP1 126.80 = intrarea − 1R</text>
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<rect x="92.5" y="90.6" width="9" height="14.3" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="142.0" y1="68.6" x2="142.0" y2="89.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="427.0" y1="189.6" x2="427.0" y2="213.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="442.0" y1="205.0" x2="442.0" y2="240.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="437.5" y="209.4" width="9" height="27.5" fill="#c00"/>
<line x1="457.0" y1="232.5" x2="457.0" y2="266.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="452.5" y="236.9" width="9" height="25.3" fill="#c00"/>
<line x1="472.0" y1="258.4" x2="472.0" y2="281.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="467.5" y="262.2" width="9" height="15.4" fill="#c00"/>
<line x1="487.0" y1="273.8" x2="487.0" y2="299.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="482.5" y="277.6" width="9" height="17.6" fill="#c00"/>
<line x1="502.0" y1="282.6" x2="502.0" y2="299.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="497.5" y="286.4" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="517.0" y1="282.6" x2="517.0" y2="311.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="512.5" y="286.4" width="9" height="20.9" fill="#c00"/>
<line x1="532.0" y1="290.3" x2="532.0" y2="311.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="527.5" y="294.1" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="547.0" y1="276.0" x2="547.0" y2="298.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="562.0" y1="266.1" x2="562.0" y2="283.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="557.5" y="269.9" width="9" height="9.9" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="304.0" y="268.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">aici intri short: 128.00</text>
<text x="304.0" y="282.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">prima bară care ÎNCHIDE sub pivotul mic</text>
<line x1="573.5" y1="290.0" x2="473.2" y2="262.1" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.8"/>
<polygon points="465.5,260.0 474.3,258.3 472.1,266.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
<text x="577.5" y="294.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">poziția 1 iese la 126.80 (1:1)</text>
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<polygon points="555.5,279.8 557.8,271.2 563.8,276.4" fill="#b06000"/>
<text x="589.5" y="242.8" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">poziția 2 iese la 126.44,</text>
<text x="589.5" y="256.8" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">prima închidere peste trail</text>
<text x="24" y="355" fill="#555">Albastru în trepte = pivotul daily (mic); portocaliu = bear trail, high-ul ultimei bare cu minim nou.</text>
</svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: short -->
Pe diagramă: pivotul mic coboară la 128.97, sub pivotul mare 129.60. Prima
bară care se închide sub 128.97 se închide la 128.00 — acolo intri short.
Stopul e la 129.20, cel mai sus maxim al ultimelor 4 bare, deci riști 1.20.
Prima jumătate iese la 126.80, la aceeași distanță în jos. A doua iese la
126.44, prima închidere peste linia de bear trail, tot +1,30R.
Ce se adaugă la short: pe BVB și pe multe conturi de prop nu poți shorta
deloc, deci jumătatea asta a strategiei pur și simplu dispare. Vezi
[transferul](#transfer).
---
<a id="nivelul-3"></a>
# Nivelul 3 — Rafinări
**Astea se citesc după ce ai făcut 20 de trade-uri mecanic, nu înainte.**
## Ce face un setup A+
Regulile de la nivelul 2 sunt minimul. Ce separă un setup bun de unul doar
valid nu e un filtru pus în scaner, ci **ce e dedesubt**: dacă sub intrare
stau mai multe niveluri independente, prima corecție normală are unde se
opri; dacă nu stă nimic, între intrare și stop nu e nimic care să țină
prețul.
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<text x="24" y="416.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="149.0" y="201.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">crossing (mijloc)</text>
<text x="24" y="516" fill="#555">exemplu construit, nu date reale — SL nu stă pe niciun pivot</text>
</g><text x="580" y="650" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle">Legendă: ce separă cele două sunt nivelurile independente dedesubte (suport quarterly + double bottom + neckline),</text><text x="580" y="668" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle">nu un filtru pus în scaner. Panoul din dreapta e exemplu construit, nu date reale.</text><text x="580" y="686" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle">Cifrele A+ sunt din material; trimiterile stau în fișa de surse a capitolului.</text></svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: aplus -->
Panoul din stânga e SPY, bottom-ul de aprilie, cu cifrele din material:
crossing-ul cade fix pe un suport trimestrial la 554.00, unde sunt și două
minime la același nivel (**double bottom**) și un **Inverted Head &
Shoulders** — un cap și doi umeri întorși cu susul în jos, cu umărul stâng la
566, capul la 555 și umărul drept la 568, iar linia care unește vârfurile
dintre ei (**neckline**) la 578.00. Intrarea, 577.00, e prima bară verde de
după umărul drept; stopul, 554.40, stă chiar peste suport; 1R = 22.60.
Panoul din dreapta e construit: un crossing la mijlocul unui interval, fără
nimic dedesubt.
Atenție la nuanță: asta e o observație despre context, nu o regulă de
adăugat. Autorul spune explicit că MP² **nu are filtre** și că orice pui
peste el îl face discreționar — iar dacă l-ai filtrat, nu mai poți invoca
statisticile strategiei de bază. Practic: nu filtrezi scanerul după
„confluență", dar când ai două semnale valide și trebuie să alegi pe care
pui risc, îl iei pe cel cu suport major dedesubt.
Un filtru de volum apare totuși ca opțional în material: **ReVol** (volumul
de azi față de media lui) peste 100 % pe bara de trigger. Motivul, în cuvinte
din curs, e că „urcarea fără volum este pump before the dump".
Alte lucruri citate mai rar: nu sări niciun semnal, pentru că probabilitățile
se calculează pe eșantion complet; și, la un bottom, două închideri daily
consecutive peste pivotul daily sunt un semn precursor că urmează crossing-ul.
## Exemplul complet: SPY, bottom-ul de aprilie
<!-- DIAGRAMA: exemplu -->
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<text x="692" y="50.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="end">ținta 4R era 667.00 (+16%)</text>
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<text x="30" y="129.8" fill="#188a3e">646.00 — +12% efectiv (~3R)</text>
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<text x="30" y="479.4" fill="#777">suport quarterly 554.00</text>
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<text x="24" y="505.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="239.0" y="461.7" fill="#1a1a1a" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">umăr stâng 566</text>
<text x="329.0" y="499.4" fill="#1a1a1a" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">head 555</text>
<text x="404.0" y="454.1" fill="#1a1a1a" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">umăr drept 568</text>
<text x="419.0" y="375.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">intrare 577.00</text>
<text x="24" y="611" fill="#555">Intrare 577.00 = prima verde după umărul drept (MP² long). 1R = 22.60; 646.00 ~3R, într-o lună.</text>
</svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: exemplu -->
**Ce e real:** cifrele. Sursa nu spune pe ce combinație de pivoți a fost dat
semnalul.
- **Contextul:** suport trimestrial 554.00, double bottom, Inverted Head &
Shoulders cu neckline 578.00.
- **Intrarea:** 577.00, prima bară verde după umărul drept, cu pivotul mic
închis peste cel mare.
- **Stopul:** 554.40, chiar peste suport. Riscul, 22.60, adică 3,92 % — un
stop larg, care taie poziția la 10 acțiuni pe un cont de 50.000 $ cu risc
de 0,5 %. Asta e corect, nu o greșeală de calcul.
- **Ținta 1:1** ar fi fost 599.60; ținta declarată, de 4R, 667.00.
- **Rezultatul real:** 646.00, adică circa +12 % (în jur de 3R), într-o lună.
- **Ce lipsește din material:** cum au fost împărțite cele două poziții și
unde s-a mutat stopul pe parcurs.
## Bottom major: NVDA, și de ce se schimbă stopul acolo
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bottom -->
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<text x="712" y="370.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">pivot weekly (mic)</text>
<text x="712" y="413.8" fill="#777" text-anchor="end">pivot monthly (mare)</text>
<text x="24" y="78" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">NVDA — weekly (pre-split 1:10)</text>
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<text x="30" y="405.6" fill="#188a3e">entry ~13.80 (după M+A)</text>
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<text x="30" y="459.4" fill="#c00">SL swing low absolut 10.63, −23%</text>
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<text x="30" y="346.9" fill="#1a5fb4">TP ~+25% (17.25), ~9 săpt.</text>
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<text x="24" y="485.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="269.0" y="479.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">minim absolut 10.63</text>
<text x="419.0" y="397.3" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">M+A</text>
<text x="24" y="591" fill="#555">Bottom oct. 2022: entry ~13.80, −23%, ~+25% în ~9 săpt. Traseu și pivoți construiți (cursul nu dă valorile lor).</text>
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<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bottom -->
Diagrama e pe alt simbol și pe altă scară (cifre dinainte de split-ul 1:10),
iar traseul dintre niveluri e construit: cursul dă doar nivelurile. După un
downtrend masiv, pivotul mic trece peste cel mare, intrarea e la 13.80, iar
stopul **nu** e la minimul ultimelor 4 candele, ci la swing low-ul absolut al
mișcării, 10.63 — adică 23 % mai jos. Ținta a venit la 17.25, circa +25 % în
vreo nouă săptămâni.
E singurul loc din capitol unde stopul se măsoară altfel, și e o decizie
conștientă: la un bottom major retesturile dese ar mătura un stop de 4
candele. Costul e că poziția se micșorează în aceeași proporție: riscul în
bani rămâne același, se schimbă numărul de acțiuni.
<a id="transfer"></a>
## Transfer (judecata mea, nu a cursului)
**Pe prop** (cont de la o firmă, cu limită zilnică de pierdere): limita se
calculează și pe pozițiile deschise, nu doar pe cele închise, așa că o
pierdere flotantă poate să te scoată din tranzacții care erau pe profit. Cu
risc de 0,5 % pe tranzacție, chiar două pierderi în aceeași zi înseamnă 1 %,
adică mult sub o limită zilnică tipică. Problema reală e alta: MP²-1 stă 1-3
zile, deci are **overnight** — poziție ținută peste noapte — iar multe
conturi de prop o interzic. Verifică regula înainte, pentru că varianta
intraday nu e descrisă în material. Combinațiile weekly/monthly și
monthly/quarterly, care înseamnă luni sau ani în tranzacție, n-au ce căuta
acolo. Și nu deschide poziții cu o zi-două înainte de un raport macro mare:
stopul de 4 bare e mai mic decât mișcarea pe care o face o astfel de știre.
**Pe BVB:** rămâi long-only, pe 8-10 nume lichide din BET verificate manual
(TLV, SNP, H2O, BRD, SNG, SNN, EL, FP, DIGI, M). Ce se poate replica 1 la 1
sunt pivoții clasici, calculați în Excel — autorul a confirmat asta explicit.
Ce nu se poate: scanerul, indicatorul de buy/sell momentum și proiecțiile de
pivoți; le ții locul cu o listă manuală și cu trigger-ul de candelă simplu
(prima închidere peste pivotul mic). OBV și ATR există pe orice platformă.
<!-- DIAGRAMA: pivoti_excel -->
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<text x="236.0" y="90.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">D</text>
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<text x="646.0" y="90.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">I</text>
<text x="72.0" y="110.0" font-size="13" font-weight="700" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">Perioada</text>
<text x="140.0" y="110.0" font-size="13" font-weight="700" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">High</text>
<text x="188.0" y="110.0" font-size="13" font-weight="700" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">Low</text>
<text x="236.0" y="110.0" font-size="13" font-weight="700" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">Close</text>
<text x="316.0" y="110.0" font-size="13" font-weight="700" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">PP</text>
<text x="406.0" y="110.0" font-size="13" font-weight="700" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">R1</text>
<text x="474.0" y="110.0" font-size="13" font-weight="700" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">S1</text>
<text x="554.0" y="110.0" font-size="13" font-weight="700" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">R2</text>
<text x="646.0" y="110.0" font-size="13" font-weight="700" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">S2</text>
<text x="72.0" y="138.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">Săptămâna</text>
<text x="72.0" y="156.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">încheiată</text>
<text x="72.0" y="174.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">(PPW)</text>
<text x="140.0" y="158.0" font-size="14" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">22.00</text>
<text x="188.0" y="158.0" font-size="14" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">20.50</text>
<text x="236.0" y="158.0" font-size="14" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">21.60</text>
<text x="316.0" y="142.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">=(B2+C2+D2)/3</text>
<text x="316.0" y="169.0" font-size="15" font-weight="700" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle">21.37</text>
<text x="406.0" y="142.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">=2*E2-C2</text>
<text x="406.0" y="169.0" font-size="15" font-weight="700" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle">22.23</text>
<text x="474.0" y="142.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">=2*E2-B2</text>
<text x="474.0" y="169.0" font-size="15" font-weight="700" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle">20.73</text>
<text x="554.0" y="142.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">=E2+(B2-C2)</text>
<text x="554.0" y="169.0" font-size="15" font-weight="700" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle">22.87</text>
<text x="646.0" y="142.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">=E2-(B2-C2)</text>
<text x="646.0" y="169.0" font-size="15" font-weight="700" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle">19.87</text>
<text x="72.0" y="200.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">Ziua</text>
<text x="72.0" y="218.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">încheiată</text>
<text x="72.0" y="236.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">(PPD)</text>
<text x="140.0" y="226.0" font-size="14" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">21.90</text>
<text x="188.0" y="226.0" font-size="14" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">21.00</text>
<text x="236.0" y="226.0" font-size="14" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">21.80</text>
<text x="316.0" y="210.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">=(B3+C3+D3)/3</text>
<text x="316.0" y="237.0" font-size="15" font-weight="700" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle">21.57</text>
<text x="406.0" y="210.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">=2*E3-C3</text>
<text x="406.0" y="237.0" font-size="15" font-weight="700" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle">22.13</text>
<text x="474.0" y="210.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">=2*E3-B3</text>
<text x="474.0" y="237.0" font-size="15" font-weight="700" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle">21.23</text>
<text x="554.0" y="210.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">=E3+(B3-C3)</text>
<text x="554.0" y="237.0" font-size="15" font-weight="700" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle">22.47</text>
<text x="646.0" y="210.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">=E3-(B3-C3)</text>
<text x="646.0" y="237.0" font-size="15" font-weight="700" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle">20.67</text>
<rect x="8.0" y="268.0" width="684.0" height="44.0" rx="6" fill="#eaf7ee" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.6"/>
<text x="350.0" y="296.0" font-size="16" font-weight="700" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">PPD 21.57 &gt; PPW 21.37 → CROSSING BULL (long)</text>
<text x="350.0" y="340.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">Cifrele sunt un exemplu construit, cu valori rotunde, pe TLV —</text>
<text x="350.0" y="358.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">nu sunt date reale de piață.</text>
<text x="350.0" y="386.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">crossing = PPD trece deasupra PPW; dacă rămâne deasupra, e continuare, nu crossing.</text>
<text x="350.0" y="408.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">Formula pivotului e cea predată în Modul 2; autorul a confirmat că se calculează 1 la 1 în Excel.</text>
</g></svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: pivoti_excel -->
Pașii, pe scurt: aduni OHLC-ul perioadei încheiate, calculezi
PP = (H + L + C) / 3, repeți pentru săptămâna încheiată și compari cele două
valori. Crossing bull = pivotul zilnic a fost sub cel săptămânal și acum e
deasupra.
Ce se rupe din cauza lichidității, ca ordin de mărime: spread-ul de
0,5-1 % la numele medii mănâncă o bucată serioasă dintr-o țintă 1:1 de 1,5 %;
stopul de 4 bare cade des în zona zgomotului zilnic, iar soluția e să-l
lărgești și să micșorezi poziția, nu să-l apropii; iar licitația de
deschidere poate sări peste el cu un gap. Practic: **merge degradat**,
undeva la 60-70 % din strategie, doar pe long.
## Unde se contrazice materialul
1. **Ce face poziția 2.** Fișierul principal spune că iese la bear reversal
(violarea bull trail-ului); un slide citat într-o sesiune de întrebări
spune „la break-even". Aceeași sesiune clarifică apoi că, după prima
țintă, poziția rămasă e oricum pe trail. **Practic:** nu-i da un TP fix.
Alege între trail și „stop la break-even, apoi las-o să meargă", și
ține-te de alegere.
2. **Unde e primul prag.** Regula scrisă e 1:1. Exemplul BRK.B raportează
risc 0.76 și un prim vârf la 1.58, adică aproape 2R — dar transcrierea nu
spune în ce unități e raportarea. **Practic:** folosește 1:1, și nu lua
exemplul BRK.B ca sursă pentru nivelul primei ținte.
3. **„La 90 % la 1:2".** Regula de mutare a stopului are două praguri: la
60 % din drumul spre prima țintă, stopul merge la break-even — asta e
clar, e 595.60 în exemplul din capitol. Ce se întâmplă la 90 % (597.40)
nu e clar din material: „la 1:2" poate însemna și mutarea stopului, și o a
doua țintă. Până se lămurește, nu construi nimic pe pragul ăsta.
4. **Doar crossing-uri, sau și continuări?** O sesiune spune ferm „doar ±2";
alta spune că și continuările au sens, dar numai imediat după un bottom
deja identificat. **Practic:** pentru căutare, crossing.
5. **Punct rămas deschis:** echivalența „MP4-1 long" = „MP² 1" nu e
confirmată de fișierul principal al strategiei, care nu pomenește deloc
„MP4".
## Ce trebuie să exersezi
1. Calculează 20 de perechi de pivoți în Excel, pe 5 simboluri, timp de 4
săptămâni, și verifică-le față de ce arată platforma.
2. Marchează retroactiv 20 de crossing-uri pe grafice daily/weekly și
notează, pentru fiecare: era crossing sau buy the dip, care a fost prima
bară de trigger, unde cădea stopul de 4 bare.
3. Fă distincția crossing / buy the dip pe 20 de semnale, cu etichete „DA" și
„NU" — scopul e să refuzi un semnal care arată aproape identic.
4. Backtestează manual în jur de 100 de tranzacții (cursul cere vreo 300, cu
o durată realistă de două luni; 100 e pragul meu de pornire): numai
crossing-uri, numai primul semnal, stop la 4 bare, prima țintă 1:1.
Compară rezultatul cu 61,9 % și circa 8 % din material.
Legături: [`03_m2d.md`](03_m2d.md) (același stop la 4 bare, același trail —
diferă doar sursa direcției), [`01_buy_doji.md`](01_buy_doji.md) (MP² spune
*unde*, buy doji spune *când*), [`04_selectia.md`](04_selectia.md) (filtrele
dinainte de strategie), [`A1_risc.md`](A1_risc.md).
---
<a id="checklist"></a>
## Checklist de tipărit
- [ ] (1) Perechea de pivoți aleasă; graficul de execuție e cel din tabel; simbol lichid, peste 10 $.
- [ ] (2) Pivotul mic e peste cel mare (long) sau sub el (short).
- [ ] (3) E crossing proaspăt — în perioada dinainte pivotul mic era de cealaltă parte.
- [ ] (4) O bară s-a ÎNCHIS de partea corectă a pivotului mic.
- [ ] (5) Stop la extrema ultimelor 4 bare; acțiuni = risc / distanță, rotunjit la multiplu de 2.
- [ ] (6) Ambele ordine au același stop; alerta de la prima țintă e pusă; platforma permite închiderea parțială.
- [ ] La bottom sau top major: am înlocuit stopul de 4 bare cu swing low-ul absolut.
- [ ] Nu am pus niciun filtru peste strategie și nu sar niciun semnal.
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