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atm-curs-dl/summaries/17_STRATEGII/06_hammer_mbt10.md
Claude Agent a7785740cc 06_hammer_mbt10: capitol reconstruit dupa sablon 
Doua proceduri complet separate, nu una amestecata, pentru ca se fac
altfel: buy hammer e pattern public, desenabil si exersabil retroactiv;
MBT-10 e cutie neagra din care se poate reface o singura conditie.
Nivelul 1 le pune fata in fata, ca cititorul sa stie din prima de ce nu
le poate trata la fel. Cate 5 pasi fiecare, oglinda pe short la hammer,
checklist dublu. Sursele in fise/06_hammer_mbt10_surse.md.

Zece diagrame noi: hammer-ul nu era definit vizual nicaieri, iar hanging
man era doar text — acum e aceeasi bara in doua contexte, cu assert ca e
identica. Cele 7 vechi si-au pierdut trimiterile fisier:linie din
legende; toate le aveau.

Doua serii partajate (bh_ansamblu si mbt_confluente expun serie()), deci
un trade nu poate avea doua variante. Oglinda pe short e trade-ul long
oglindit in jurul lui K=162.30, deci riscul ramane 1.30 in ambele.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ThN7ixZrowca8aTGrK1MUJ
2026-09-20 13:05:41 +00:00

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# 6. Buy hammer și MBT-10
**Etichete:** `long` `short` · `swing` pe daily · `acțiuni US` `futures` `BVB` ·
dificultate `2/5` (buy hammer) / `4/5` (MBT-10) · merge pe prop (cont finanțat
de o firmă): buy hammer da, cu ajustări; MBT-10 parțial · merge pe BVB: buy
hammer da, doar long; MBT-10 nu, ca sistem
**Cum citești capitolul:** textul e explicația mea a materialului de curs și
nu adaugă reguli peste el; acolo unde materialul nu spune, completez, iar
bucata aceea începe cu **Completare proprie**. Diagramele sunt exemple
construite, cu excepția LABU și Tesla, unde cifrele marcate sunt ale cursului.
Trimiterile la lecțiile din care vine fiecare pas stau separat, în
[`fise/06_hammer_mbt10_surse.md`](fise/06_hammer_mbt10_surse.md).
Capitolul are **două strategii**, nu una. Ele se ating (MBT-10 apare des pe o
zi care are și un hammer), dar se fac altfel, așa că fiecare are procedura ei
mecanică: [buy hammer](#nivelul-2a) în cinci pași, [MBT-10](#nivelul-2b) tot
în cinci. Nu le amesteca la ecran.
# Nivelul 1 — Din avion
## De ce sunt două jumătăți
<!-- DIAGRAMA: harta -->
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<text x="350.0" y="34.0" font-size="19" font-weight="700" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">Același trigger de bottom, două naturi</text>
<text x="350.0" y="58.0" font-size="14" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">buy hammer (public) vs. MBT-10 (cutie neagră)</text>
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<text x="56.0" y="108.0" font-size="15" font-weight="700" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="start">Trigger de bottom: unde + când</text>
<text x="56.0" y="130.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">Setup-urile de fond — suport, locul crimei, double bottom, buy doji,</text>
<text x="56.0" y="148.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">divergență de volum — spun UNDE. Trigger-ul de candelă spune CÂND.</text>
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<line x1="509.0" y1="172.0" x2="509.0" y2="190.0" stroke="#777777" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="40.0" y="190.0" width="302.0" height="256.0" rx="8" fill="#eef4fd" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.4"/>
<text x="56.0" y="216.0" font-size="15" font-weight="700" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="start">BUY HAMMER — pattern standard</text>
<line x1="56.0" y1="228.0" x2="326.0" y2="228.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.0"/>
<text x="56.0" y="260.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">„formă de candelă + downtrend”</text>
<text x="56.0" y="294.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="start"></text>
<text x="56.0" y="312.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">„trigger: close peste</text>
<text x="56.0" y="329.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">high-ul hammer-ului”</text>
<text x="56.0" y="346.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="start"></text>
<text x="56.0" y="364.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">„fără niciun indicator proprietar”</text>
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<text x="56.0" y="432.0" font-size="13" font-weight="700" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="start">„pe BVB: se poate rula long-only”</text>
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<text x="374.0" y="216.0" font-size="15" font-weight="700" fill="#333333" text-anchor="start">MBT-10 — cutie neagră</text>
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<text x="374.0" y="260.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">„formula nu e publică nicăieri”</text>
<text x="374.0" y="294.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="start"></text>
<text x="374.0" y="312.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">„reconstituibil doar:</text>
<text x="374.0" y="329.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">close peste pivotul daily”</text>
<text x="374.0" y="346.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="start"></text>
<text x="374.0" y="364.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">„scanner + indicator proprietar”</text>
<text x="374.0" y="398.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="start"></text>
<line x1="374.0" y1="406.0" x2="644.0" y2="406.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<text x="374.0" y="432.0" font-size="13" font-weight="700" fill="#c00" text-anchor="start">„pe BVB: nu, ca sistem”</text>
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<line x1="191.0" y1="460.0" x2="509.0" y2="460.0" stroke="#777777" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<polygon points="350.0,500.0 344.0,489.0 356.0,489.0" fill="#777777"/>
<rect x="110.0" y="500.0" width="480.0" height="56.0" rx="8" fill="#fdf0e0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.6"/>
<text x="350.0" y="524.0" font-size="14" font-weight="700" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">Ce rămâne pe BVB: hammer la un nivel major</text>
<text x="350.0" y="544.0" font-size="14" font-weight="700" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">+ close peste PPD</text>
<text x="350.0" y="578.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">Regulile = materialul cursului (cu trimiteri); verdictul de BVB = judecata mea</text>
<text x="350.0" y="596.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">din secțiunea Transfer.</text>
</g></svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: harta -->
**Buy hammer** e un pattern de o candelă: îl vezi cu ochiul, pe orice
platformă, fără niciun indicator. Îl poți desena, îl poți verifica singur pe
un grafic vechi și îl poți duce pe BVB.
**MBT-10** e un semnal al sistemului ATM, adică un indicator proprietar
(scris de autor, vândut cu platforma lui). Formula lui nu apare nicăieri în
material: nu se știe ce măsoară și nici ce înseamnă „10". De aceea îi spun
**cutie neagră** — un instrument din care vezi doar rezultatul, nu și
calculul. Singura bucată din el pe care o poți reface singur e o condiție de
preț: ziua trebuie să se închidă peste pivotul daily.
Asta schimbă ce poți face cu fiecare: pe buy hammer poți exersa retroactiv pe
grafic, pe MBT-10 nu, pentru că n-ai cu ce marca semnalul pe barele vechi.
## Ce e un hammer
Un hammer e o candelă cu **corpul mic, sus în bară, și cu un fitil lung în
jos**. Corpul e bucata groasă, între prețul de deschidere (open) și cel de
închidere (close); fitilul e linia subțire care iese din corp și arată cât de
departe a ajuns prețul înăuntrul perioadei. Un fitil lung în jos înseamnă că
vânzătorii au împins prețul mult mai jos, dar nu l-au putut ține acolo:
cumpărătorii l-au adus înapoi până la închidere.
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_forma -->
<svg viewBox="0 0 1000 648" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24.0" y="30.0" fill="#333" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:14px">Ce e un hammer și ce nu — aceeași bară, 63.30 sus și 62.10 jos</text>
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<text x="298.0" y="173.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">hammer</text>
<rect x="630.0" y="180.0" width="304.0" height="398.0" fill="#c00" fill-opacity="0.10" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
<text x="636.0" y="173.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">nu e hammer</text>
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<line x1="250" y1="522.0" x2="976" y2="522.0" stroke="#bbb" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="24.0" y="204.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="start">cât de sus a urcat prețul: 63.30</text>
<text x="24.0" y="536.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="start">cât de jos a coborât: 62.10</text>
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<text x="24.0" y="310.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="start">treimea de sus începe la 62.90</text>
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<text x="350.0" y="550.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">DA: corp 0.25,</text>
<text x="350.0" y="566.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle">fitil jos 0.95 = 3,8x corpul</text>
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<rect x="477.0" y="210.0" width="26" height="104.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
<text x="490.0" y="550.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">DA, la limită:</text>
<text x="490.0" y="566.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle">corp 0.40, fitil 0.80</text>
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<rect x="677.0" y="210.0" width="26" height="182.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
<text x="690.0" y="550.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">NU: corp 0.70,</text>
<text x="690.0" y="566.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle">fitil jos 0.50 = 0,7x corpul</text>
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<rect x="847.0" y="431.0" width="26" height="52.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
<text x="860.0" y="550.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">NU: corpul e jos, fitilul</text>
<text x="860.0" y="566.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle">lung e sus — alt pattern</text>
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<text x="284.0" y="252.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">corpul: mic și sus în bară</text>
<text x="284.0" y="266.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">ziua s-a închis aproape de maxim —</text>
<text x="284.0" y="280.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">cumpărătorii au ținut până la final</text>
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<polygon points="347.0,392.0 340.1,397.7 338.3,389.9" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
<text x="284.0" y="395.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">fitilul de jos, lung</text>
<text x="284.0" y="409.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">vânzătorii au dus prețul până la 62.10,</text>
<text x="284.0" y="423.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">dar cumpărătorii l-au adus înapoi sus</text>
<text x="370.0" y="287.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="start">open 63.05</text>
<text x="370.0" y="206.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="start">close = high 63.30</text>
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<polygon points="704.0,301.0 700.8,292.6 708.8,293.4" fill="#c00"/>
<text x="730.0" y="88.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">corp prea gros</text>
<text x="730.0" y="102.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="start">fitilul de jos nu e nici cât corpul —</text>
<text x="730.0" y="116.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="start">nimeni n-a fost respins jos</text>
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<text x="860.0" y="138.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">fitilul lung e sus, nu jos</text>
<text x="860.0" y="152.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle">aici cumpărătorii au fost respinși;</text>
<text x="860.0" y="166.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle">e inverted hammer, alt pattern</text>
<text x="24.0" y="608.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="start">Hammer = fitilul de jos e cel puțin dublul corpului ȘI corpul stă în treimea de sus a barei (aici peste 62.90).</text>
<text x="24.0" y="624.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="start">Pragul „fitil ≥ 2x corpul" e al cursului; „corpul în treimea de sus" e traducerea mea a lui „corp mic sus, fitil de sus aproape inexistent".</text>
</svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_forma -->
Regula de verificat, nu de ghicit din ochi: **fitilul de jos trebuie să fie
cel puțin de două ori cât corpul**, iar corpul trebuie să stea în treimea de
sus a barei. Pe candela A din diagramă: corp 0.25, fitil de jos 0.95, adică
de 3,8 ori corpul — hammer. Pe candela C: corp 0.70, fitil 0.50 — nu e.
> **Completare proprie:** „cel puțin dublul corpului" e pragul cursului.
> „Corpul în treimea de sus" e traducerea mea a lui „corp mic sus, fitil de
> sus aproape inexistent", ca să ai ce măsura, nu doar ce simți.
## Ce face buy hammer
Prețul a scăzut mai multe zile la rând și apare un hammer lângă un nivel la
care prețul a mai întors în trecut. Nu cumperi pe hammer. Aștepți ca
**următoarea candelă să se închidă peste vârful lui** (peste high-ul lui) —
abia asta arată că au preluat controlul cumpărătorii. Atunci cumperi, pui
stopul sub fitilul hammer-ului, vinzi o parte când prețul a urcat cât riscai
și lași restul pe un stop care urcă după preț.
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_ansamblu -->
<svg viewBox="0 0 720 559" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Buy hammer — daily (ticker ilustrativ XYZ, din lecția de pattern)</text>
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<text x="30" y="376.4" fill="#c00">SL 62.05 — sub low-ul hammer-ului</text>
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<text x="692" y="334.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 63.35</text>
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<text x="692" y="251.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP 65.95 = 2R</text>
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<text x="24" y="402.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="329.0" y="396.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer 63.30 / 62.10</text>
<text x="24" y="500.4" fill="#188a3e">bara 20: confirmare — close 63.35 peste high-ul hammer-ului 63.30 (intrare)</text>
<text x="24" y="533" fill="#555">Exemplu ilustrativ (XYZ) din lecția de pattern; prețurile sunt cele ale lecției,</text><text x="24" y="549" fill="#555">structura barelor dintre ele e construită.</text></svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_ansamblu -->
De la stânga la dreapta: 19 zile de scădere, hammer-ul (high 63.30, low
62.10, deci un fitil de jos de 0.95 sub un corp de 0.25), apoi ziua care se
închide la 63.35, peste 63.30 — acolo intri. Stopul e la 62.05, cu 5 cenți
sub low-ul hammer-ului, deci riști 1.30 pe acțiune. Ținta din exemplul lecției
e la 65.95, adică de două ori riscul.
Cursul dă pattern-ului cam **65-70 %** reușită, iar într-o sesiune de
întrebări „așa la 60 %" după o scădere lungă. Adică pierzi un trade din trei.
De aceea stopul nu e opțional.
## Ce face MBT-10
MBT-10 nu e aproape niciodată ideea în sine: e **ultima bifă** după ce ai deja
un motiv de bottom — un suport, un double bottom, un buy doji, o divergență de
volum. Ideea spune *unde* ai voie să te uiți; MBT-10 spune *când* intri. Și
contează un singur moment: **închiderea barei**. Ce se vede intraday, cât timp
ziua e în desfășurare, nu e semnal.
<!-- DIAGRAMA: mbt_ansamblu -->
<svg viewBox="0 0 780 526" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 — pullback în locul crimei + hammer, închidere la 54.60 (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="30" y="192.0" fill="#777">locul crimei 52.10 (fost vârf spart)</text>
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<text x="752" y="194.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL 52.00 — sub codița hammer-ului</text>
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<text x="752" y="142.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 54.60 (close în MBT-10)</text>
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<text x="752" y="56.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP 58.90 = 1.65R</text>
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<text x="24" y="356.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="479.0" y="218.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer — codița pe 52.10</text>
<text x="494.0" y="110.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 închis</text>
<text x="24" y="454.0" fill="#188a3e">Legendă: MBT-10 nu se desenează — formula nu e publică ; se marchează doar bara la care</text>
<text x="24" y="471.0" fill="#188a3e">semnalul s-a închis. Nivelurile sunt exemplul construit al sumarizatorului.</text>
<text x="24" y="488.0" fill="#188a3e">bara 9 = fostul vârf 52.10 (locul crimei); bara 21 = vârful nou 58.90.</text>
<text x="24" y="505.0" fill="#188a3e">bara 29 = hammer: o 52.20, h/c 53.40, l 52.10 (codița exact pe locul crimei); bara 30 = ziua închisă în MBT-10.</text>
</svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: mbt_ansamblu -->
Pe diagramă: un vârf vechi la 52.10 a fost spart, prețul a urcat la 58.90 și
apoi s-a întors exact la 52.10 — la **locul crimei**, adică fostul vârf care
acum ține de dedesubt (îl ai în glosar). Acolo apare un hammer cu codița fix
pe 52.10, iar ziua următoare se închide în MBT-10 la 54.60: acolo intri.
Stopul stă la 52.00, sub codiță și sub locul crimei; ținta e vârful anterior,
58.90.
## Mini-glosar
Termenii de mai jos apar în capitol. Cei care au formă pe grafic sunt și
desenați — scrie lângă fiecare pe ce diagramă îl vezi.
- **Open, close, high, low** — cele patru prețuri ale unei candele: cu cât a
deschis perioada, cu cât a închis, cât de sus a urcat și cât de jos a
coborât. Corpul e între open și close, fitilele merg până la high și low.
- **Hammer** — candelă cu corp mic în treimea de sus a barei și fitil de jos
de cel puțin două ori cât corpul. Exemplu: candela A din diagrama „ce e un
hammer", cu corp 0.25 și fitil 0.95.
- **Hanging man** — exact aceeași formă, dar apărută **după o urcare**. Atunci
nu mai e semnal de cumpărare, ci un avertisment de scădere. Vezi panoul din
dreapta al diagramei de la [pasul A1](#pasul-a1): aceeași bară 63.30 / 62.10,
alt context, alt sens.
- **Inverted hammer** — corpul jos și fitilul lung în sus (candela D din
diagrama de formă). E alt pattern; nu-l confunda cu hammer-ul.
- **Downtrend / uptrend** — o serie de candele care coboară, respectiv urcă,
cu maxime și minime tot mai jos (sau tot mai sus). În capitol, „scădere" și
„urcare".
- **Nivel major (suport, rezistență, pivot)** — un preț la care piața a mai
reacționat. Un **suport** e sub preț și l-a mai oprit din coborât; o
**rezistență** e deasupra și l-a mai oprit din urcat. Un **pivot** e un nivel
calculat din maximul, minimul și închiderea perioadei trecute — daily,
weekly, monthly sau quarterly, după perioada folosită. Exemplu: suportul
monthly 62.00 din panoul stâng al diagramei de la [pasul A2](#pasul-a2).
- **Pivotul daily (PPD)** — pivotul calculat din ziua precedentă. Se
recalculează în fiecare zi, deci nu e o linie fixă pe grafic. Exemplu: 89.60
pe diagrama de la [pasul B3](#pasul-b3).
- **Locul crimei** — un vârf vechi pe care prețul l-a spart și la care se
întoarce mai târziu, de data asta pe dedesubt. Cine a vândut acolo prima
dată are acum de recuperat, iar cine a ratat urcarea așteaptă exact acolo.
Exemplu: 52.10 pe diagrama de ansamblu a MBT-10.
- **Double bottom** — două minime aproape la același preț, cu o urcare între
ele. Exemplu: 87.60 și 87.55 pe diagrama de la [pasul B1](#pasul-b1) —
5 cenți diferență, adică 0,06 %.
- **Swing low** — cel mai jos low al unei coborâri scurte, confirmat de
barele de după, care nu-l mai rup. Se folosește ca loc pentru stopul care
urcă. Exemplu: 65.10, apoi 66.00, pe diagrama de la [pasul A5](#pasul-a5).
- **Trigger** — evenimentul care îți dă voie să intri. La buy hammer: o
închidere peste high-ul hammer-ului. La MBT-10: închiderea barei în semnal.
- **Stop-loss (SL)** — prețul la care ieși automat cu pierdere, pentru că
ideea s-a dovedit greșită. Îl pui în platformă odată cu intrarea.
- **1R** — cât pierzi pe acțiune dacă te lovește stopul. Intri la 63.35,
stopul e la 62.05, deci 1R = 1.30; „+2R" înseamnă 2.60 pe acțiune.
- **Take-profit (TP)** — prețul la care iei profitul. „1:1" înseamnă o țintă
la exact distanța stopului: 63.35 + 1.30 = 64.65.
- **Trailing stop (trail)** — un stop pe care îl urci după preț, dar nu-l
cobori niciodată. Ieși la prima închidere sub el. Vezi linia portocalie în
trepte de la [pasul A5](#pasul-a5).
- **Tranșe** — poziția împărțită în bucăți, ca să ieși în mai multe momente:
jumătate la prima țintă, jumătate pe trail.
- **Long și short** — „long" înseamnă că ai cumpărat și câștigi dacă prețul
urcă. „Short" e invers: vinzi acum acțiuni împrumutate de la broker și le
cumperi înapoi mai târziu, deci câștigi dacă prețul scade.
- **Short covering** — cumpărăturile celor care erau pe short și ies. Sunt
cumpărături adevărate, de aceea o întoarcere de la un minim poate fi bruscă.
- **Gap** — un gol între două candele: prețul deschide mult peste (gap up) sau
mult sub (gap down) închiderea de ieri, fără să tranzacționeze între. Un gap
down sare peste stopuri, de asta contează. Vezi diagrama din
[Nivelul 3](#gap-down).
- **Divergență de volum** — prețul face un minim nou, dar volumul de pe el e
mai mic decât pe minimul dinainte. Semn că vânzarea a slăbit. Exemplu:
piciorul 2 de pe diagrama de la [pasul B1](#pasul-b1).
- **Cutie neagră** — instrument din care vezi doar rezultatul, nu și formula.
Aici: MBT-10.
- **Earnings** — ziua în care compania își publică rezultatele trimestriale.
Prețul poate sări peste noapte, peste stopul tău.
- **Gamble trade** — un setup corect pe grafic, dar cu earnings în zilele
următoare: nu mai e trade, e pariu, fiindcă stopul nu te mai protejează.
- **Prop** — cont pus la dispoziție de o firmă, cu reguli proprii de pierdere
zilnică.
## Cele două fraze de decizie
> **Buy hammer.** Cumpăr când, după o scădere, apare un hammer lângă un nivel
> major și candela următoare se închide peste high-ul lui; stopul stă sub
> low-ul hammer-ului, prima jumătate iese la 1:1, restul pe trail.
> **MBT-10.** Cumpăr când, peste o idee de bottom deja formată (suport, locul
> crimei, double bottom, buy doji, divergență de volum), ziua se **închide** în
> MBT-10 — pe daily, cu un close peste pivotul daily; ies dacă prețul închide
> sub structura pe care s-a format ideea.
Pe short, ambele au oglinda lor: **Sell Hammer** (urcare, corp mic jos, fitil
lung în sus, închidere sub low-ul candelei) și MBT-10 short, tot la close.
## Cei zece pași, în două coloane
**Buy hammer:** [A1. Scăderea și forma](#pasul-a1) ·
[A2. Nivelul](#pasul-a2) · [A3. Trigger-ul](#pasul-a3) ·
[A4. Stopul și mărimea](#pasul-a4) · [A5. Ieșirea](#pasul-a5) ·
apoi [oglinda pe short](#oglinda-short).
**MBT-10:** [B1. Ideea de bottom](#pasul-b1) ·
[B2. Închiderea barei](#pasul-b2) · [B3. Condiția de preț](#pasul-b3) ·
[B4. Stopul și mărimea](#pasul-b4) · [B5. Ieșirea](#pasul-b5).
Apoi [rafinările](#nivelul-3) și [checklist-ul](#checklist).
---
<a id="nivelul-2a"></a>
# Nivelul 2A — Buy hammer, procedura în 5 pași
Aici nu alegi nimic. Faci pașii în ordine. Dacă un pas nu trece, lași
simbolul și treci la următorul.
Înainte de pasul 1, filtrul de listă: păstrezi doar simbolurile lichide, pe
care intri și ieși fără să miști prețul — close peste 30-40 $ și volum mediu
zilnic de cel puțin 500.000 de acțiuni. Pragurile sunt cele ale scanerului de
Buy Doji / Buy Hammer; materialul nu dă altele separat pentru hammer. Și mai
verifici o dată calendarul: dacă firma raportează în zilele următoare, nu
intri deloc, oricât de frumos arată graficul.
<a id="pasul-a1"></a>
## Pasul A1 — Scăderea dinainte și forma candelei
**Te uiți la ultimele 8-10 candele: trebuie să vezi o scădere care se oprește
într-o candelă cu fitil lung în jos. Dacă înainte a fost o urcare, nu e
hammer, e hanging man, și înseamnă exact pe dos.**
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_trend -->
<svg viewBox="0 0 780 535" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="20" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Aceeași candelă, două contexte — daily, exemplu construit</text>
<text x="24" y="42" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">DA — după o scădere: hammer</text>
<text x="402" y="42" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">NU — după o urcare: hanging man</text>
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<g transform="translate(0,60)"><rect x="59.0" y="96.0" width="214.0" height="162.9" fill="#c00" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
<text x="59.0" y="91.0" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">scădere de 9 candele</text>
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<text x="216.0" y="349.7" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer 63.30 / 62.10: prețul a fost dus la 62.10</text>
<text x="216.0" y="363.7" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">și readus sus, la 63.30</text>
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<text x="214.0" y="63.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">close 63.35, peste high-ul hammer-ului:</text>
<text x="214.0" y="77.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">semnalul e valid, aici intri</text></g>
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<text x="437.0" y="97.5" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">urcare de 9 candele</text>
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<text x="414.0" y="380.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">aceeași candelă 63.30 / 62.10, dar după o urcare:</text>
<text x="414.0" y="394.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">se numește hanging man și avertizează de scădere</text>
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<text x="618.0" y="37.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">close 62.00, sub low-ul ei: scăderea</text>
<text x="618.0" y="51.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">începe — nu era semnal de cumpărare</text></g>
<text x="24" y="509" fill="#555">Forma nu spune nimic singură: hammer-ul e pattern de întoarcere doar după o scădere. Aceeași bară după o urcare</text>
<text x="24" y="525" fill="#555">e hanging man și are sensul opus. Prețurile sunt construite; regula de context e a cursului.</text>
</svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_trend -->
Cele două panouri au **aceeași candelă** — 63.30 sus, 62.10 jos, corp 0.25.
În stânga vine după o scădere de nouă candele: vânzătorii au dus prețul la
62.10 și n-au putut să-l țină, iar ziua următoare se închide peste vârful ei,
la 63.35. În dreapta, aceeași bară vine după o urcare de nouă candele: acolo
fitilul lung în jos arată că au apărut vânzători sus, iar ziua următoare se
închide la 62.00, sub low-ul ei. Forma nu decide nimic singură; contextul
decide.
Forma o verifici cu împărțirea de la nivelul 1, nu din ochi: fitilul de jos
împărțit la corp trebuie să dea cel puțin 2, iar corpul trebuie să stea în
treimea de sus a barei.
**Treci mai departe doar dacă** ai o scădere clară înainte și o candelă care
trece regula de formă.
<a id="pasul-a2"></a>
## Pasul A2 — Hammer-ul stă lângă un nivel
**Tragi pe grafic suporturile și pivoții weekly, monthly sau quarterly și te
uiți cât de departe e low-ul hammer-ului de cel mai apropiat dintre ei.**
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_locatie -->
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<text x="24" y="22" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Hammer la un nivel vs. hammer în mijlocul range-ului — daily, exemplu construit</text>
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">DA — hammer pe suportul monthly</text>
<text x="402" y="48" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">NU — hammer în mijlocul range-ului</text>
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<text x="370" y="224.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">low-ul hammer-ului: 62.10</text>
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<text x="748" y="224.3" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">low-ul hammer-ului: 62.10</text>
<text x="370" y="267.7" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">de la 62.10 la 62.00 = 0,16 % — la nivel</text>
<text x="410" y="357.7" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">de la 62.10 la 58.00 = gol de 7,07 % — hammer în aer</text>
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<text x="370" y="247.7" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">suport monthly 62.00</text>
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<text x="748" y="77.7" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">rezistența range-ului 67.00</text>
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<text x="748" y="383.7" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">baza range-ului 58.00</text>
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<text x="177.0" y="163.5" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer 63.30 / 62.10</text>
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<text x="156.0" y="299.7" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">suport monthly: nivel urmărit de mulți —</text>
<text x="156.0" y="313.7" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">aici au cumpărători motiv să apară</text>
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<text x="555.0" y="163.5" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer 63.30 / 62.10</text>
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<text x="625.0" y="304.3" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">aceeași formă, dar nimic sub ea:</text>
<text x="625.0" y="318.3" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">fitilul n-a fost oprit de un nivel,</text>
<text x="625.0" y="332.3" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ci s-a oprit singur</text>
<text x="24" y="404" fill="#555">Completare proprie: materialul cere „un nivel major (weekly / monthly / quarterly), nu mijlocul</text>
<text x="24" y="420" fill="#555">range-ului", dar nu dă un prag numeric. Pragul de 1-2 % e împrumutat de la buy doji, ca să ai ce</text>
<text x="24" y="436" fill="#555">măsura: aici 0,16 % în stânga, 7,07 % în dreapta.</text>
</svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_locatie -->
Aceeași formă, de două ori, pe aceeași scară. În stânga, low-ul hammer-ului e
62.10, iar suportul monthly 62.00: (62.10 − 62.00) / 62.00 = 0,16 %, deci
hammer „la nivel". În dreapta, cel mai apropiat nivel de sub el e la 58.00, un
gol de 7,07 %: hammer în mijlocul range-ului, adică între suportul de jos și
rezistența de sus, fără nimic în jur. Ochiul nu vede diferența, procentul da.
De ce contează: un fitil lung oprit chiar pe un nivel spune că acolo au intrat
cumpărători care așteptau prețul. Același fitil în mijlocul intervalului spune
doar că a fost o zi agitată. Materialul e categoric aici: pattern-ul „contează
mult mai mult la un suport important (weekly, monthly, quarterly) decât în
mijlocul range-ului".
> **Completare proprie:** materialul nu dă un prag numeric pentru „lângă
> nivel". Am împrumutat pragul de 1-2 % de la buy doji, ca să ai ce măsura.
> Dacă vrei să fii mai strict, ține-te de 1 %.
**Treci mai departe doar dacă** low-ul hammer-ului e la cel mult 1-2 % de un
suport sau de un pivot weekly, monthly ori quarterly.
<a id="pasul-a3"></a>
## Pasul A3 — Trigger-ul: închiderea candelei următoare
**Notezi high-ul hammer-ului și te uiți la o singură candelă — următoarea.
Intri doar dacă ea se închide peste acel high.**
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_trigger -->
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<text x="12" y="20" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Trigger-ul: contează unde se închide candela următoare — daily, exemplu construit</text>
<text x="12" y="38" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">DA — închide peste high</text>
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<text x="250" y="262.3" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">high 63.30</text>
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<text x="250" y="317.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">low 62.10</text>
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<text x="108.0" y="51.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">close 63.35, peste 63.30:</text>
<text x="108.0" y="65.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">aici intri</text></g>
<text x="266" y="38" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">NU — încă sub high</text>
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<text x="504" y="262.3" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">high 63.30</text>
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<text x="504" y="317.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">low 62.10</text>
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<text x="354.0" y="37.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">close 63.20, sub 63.30:</text>
<text x="354.0" y="51.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">nu s-a întâmplat nimic,</text>
<text x="354.0" y="65.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">aștepți mai departe</text></g>
<text x="520" y="38" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">NU — închide sub low</text>
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<text x="758" y="262.3" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">high 63.30</text>
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<text x="758" y="317.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">low 62.10</text>
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<text x="602.0" y="350.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">close 62.00, sub 62.10:</text>
<text x="602.0" y="364.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">vânzătorii au dus prețul</text>
<text x="602.0" y="378.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">sub fitil — setup mort</text></g>
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<line x1="513" y1="44" x2="513" y2="471" stroke="#ccc"/>
<text x="12" y="489" fill="#555">Regula e a lecției de pattern: intri la close-ul candelei următoare, dacă acea închidere e peste high-ul hammer-ului. O atingere</text>
<text x="12" y="505" fill="#555">intraday peste 63.30, urmată de o închidere sub el, nu e trigger. Prețurile sunt construite.</text>
</svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_trigger -->
Trei situații, cu același hammer 63.30 / 62.10:
- **DA:** candela următoare se închide la 63.35, peste 63.30. Intri la
close-ul ei, 63.35.
- **NU, încă nimic:** se închide la 63.20, sub 63.30. Nu s-a întâmplat nimic;
hammer-ul rămâne doar o pauză în scădere.
- **NU, setup mort:** se închide la 62.00, sub low-ul hammer-ului 62.10.
Vânzătorii au dus prețul sub fitil, deci ideea că s-au epuizat e infirmată.
Contează **închiderea**, nu atingerea. O candelă care trece peste 63.30 în
timpul zilei și se închide sub el nu e trigger.
De ce se mișcă brusc prețul pe închiderea de deasupra: cine a vândut în ziua
hammer-ului e acum pe pierdere, iar stopurile celor care erau pe short, puse
deasupra high-ului, se execută ca ordine de cumpărare — e short covering-ul
din glosar. (Mecanismul e explicația sumarizatorului, sprijinită pe ce spune
cursul despre ordinele de sub minim.)
O notă de scaner: câmpul `BHATM = 0` marchează **candela-hammer**, adică
momentul semnalului, nu momentul intrării. Cine intră pe el intră cu o zi mai
devreme, pe o bară care n-a confirmat încă. Vezi contradicția 2 din
[nivelul 3](#contradictii).
**Treci mai departe doar dacă** o candelă s-a închis peste high-ul
hammer-ului. Altfel ștergi setup-ul.
<a id="pasul-a4"></a>
## Pasul A4 — Stopul și mărimea poziției
**Pui stopul puțin sub low-ul hammer-ului și calculezi câte acțiuni cumperi
din distanța până la el.**
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_stop -->
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<text x="24" y="64" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Buy hammer — stopul și mărimea poziției (daily, ticker ilustrativ XYZ)</text>
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<text x="257.3" y="89.4" fill="#b06000" style="font-weight:bold">cele două bare care dau stopul</text>
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<text x="30" y="171.6" fill="#188a3e">intrare 63.35 (close-ul confirmării)</text>
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<text x="30" y="228.8" fill="#c00">SL 62.05</text>
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<text x="92.8" y="302.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">low-ul hammer-ului: 62.10</text>
<text x="92.8" y="316.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">sub el, cererea care a făcut</text>
<text x="92.8" y="330.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">fitilul nu mai există</text>
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<text x="544.8" y="47.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">riscul e distanța intrare - SL:</text>
<text x="544.8" y="61.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">63.35 - 62.05 = 1.30 $ pe acțiune</text>
<text x="24" y="361.6" fill="#188a3e">bara 20: confirmare — close 63.35 peste high-ul hammer-ului 63.30 (intrare)</text>
<polyline points="370.0,177.6 376.0,177.6 376.0,234.8 370.0,234.8" fill="none" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5"/><text x="382.0" y="210.2" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">1R = 1.30 $</text><text x="24" y="393" fill="#333">Mărimea poziției, cu cifrele lecției: 2 % dintr-un cont de 10.000 $ = 200 $ de risc.</text><text x="24" y="409" fill="#333">200 $ / 1.30 $ pe acțiune = 153.8 → 153 de acțiuni (rotunjit în jos); pierderea maximă 198.90 $.</text><text x="24" y="425" fill="#555">Cei 5 cenți de sub low sunt marja folosită în tot capitolul pe exemplele construite de mine;</text><text x="24" y="441" fill="#555">unde cifra vine din material, e spusă acolo.</text></svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_stop -->
Stopul merge la 62.05, cu 5 cenți sub 62.10. De ce acolo: dacă prețul se
tranzacționează sub acel low, cererea care a făcut fitilul pur și simplu nu
mai există — ideea a murit, n-are rost s-o mai ții. Dacă hammer-ul face parte
dintr-un double bottom, stopul coboară sub double bottom, nu doar sub candelă.
Riscul e distanța: 63.35 − 62.05 = **1.30 $ pe acțiune**. Mărimea poziției
vine din regula generală a cursului — pierzi cel mult 2 % din cont pe un
trade — iar numărul de acțiuni e riscul în dolari împărțit la distanța până la
stop, rotunjit în jos. Cu exemplul lecției, pe un cont de 10.000 $: 2 % = 200 $,
iar 200 / 1.30 = 153,8, deci **153 de acțiuni**, cu o pierdere maximă de
198,90 $.
Cei 5 cenți de marjă sunt regula pe care o folosesc în tot capitolul, pe
exemplele construite de mine. Unde cifra vine din material — stopul 64.10 sub
un hammer cu low 64.30, în exemplul cu gap, sau 52.00 sub codița de la MBT-10
— am păstrat-o pe a lui și o spun acolo.
**Treci mai departe doar dacă** știi prețul exact al stopului și numărul de
acțiuni, iar pierderea maximă încape în regula ta de risc.
<a id="pasul-a5"></a>
## Pasul A5 — Ieșirea: jumătate la 1:1, restul pe trail
**Pui prima țintă la aceeași distanță deasupra intrării la care e stopul
dedesubt, iar după ce e atinsă muți stopul sub fiecare swing low nou.**
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_iesire -->
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<text x="24" y="72" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Buy hammer — ieșirea (daily, ticker ilustrativ XYZ; barele de după 33 sunt construite)</text>
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<text x="757" y="130.1" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">65.95 = 2R — ținta din exemplul lecției</text>
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<text x="757" y="174.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">64.65 = 1:1 — prima jumătate</text>
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<text x="30" y="218.5" fill="#555">intrare 63.35</text>
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<text x="30" y="262.7" fill="#c00">SL inițial 62.05</text>
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<text x="95.9" y="91.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">prima jumătate iese la 64.65:</text>
<text x="95.9" y="105.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">exact cât ai riscat (1R)</text>
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<polygon points="517.9,145.2 513.8,153.2 509.1,146.7" fill="#c00"/>
<text x="267.9" y="343.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">a doua jumătate iese la 65.90 (+1,96R):</text>
<text x="267.9" y="357.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">prima închidere sub linia de trail</text>
<polyline points="154.0,234.7 330.0,234.7 330.0,165.0 330.0,165.0 410.0,165.0 410.0,134.4 410.0,134.4 438.0,134.4" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/><text x="158.0" y="250.7" fill="#b06000" style="font-weight:bold">linia de trail</text><text x="24" y="402" fill="#333">Trail-ul urcă doar sub un swing low nou — 63.05, apoi 65.10, apoi 66.00 — și nu coboară niciodată; ieși la prima închidere sub el.</text><text x="24" y="418" fill="#555">Lecția de pattern nu dă o țintă proprie — 1:1 vine de la strategia MBP, iar 2R e ținta</text><text x="24" y="434" fill="#555">exemplului din lecție. Continuarea barelor de după 33 e construită.</text></svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_iesire -->
Lecția de pattern nu dă o țintă proprie — spune explicit că „un pattern nu îți
spune cât de departe merge prețul". Ținta vine de la strategia care folosește
hammer-ul: la MBP, prima tranșă la 1:1 și restul pe trail; la MDSRT, țintă
simetrică plus trail. Deci:
1. **Prima jumătate la 1:1.** Cu intrarea la 63.35 și stopul la 62.05, riști
1.30, deci ținta e 64.65.
2. **A doua jumătate pe trail.** Muți stopul sub ultimul swing low — cel mai
jos low al unei coborâri scurte, confirmat de două bare care nu-l rup. Pe
diagramă: 63.05, apoi 65.10, apoi 66.00. Linia doar urcă, niciodată nu
coboară. Ieși la prima închidere sub ea: aici la 65.90, adică +1,96R.
Pe drum, la 65.95, ar fi fost atinsă și ținta de 2R din exemplul lecției. E
bine de știut că există, dar nu e o regulă a pattern-ului — e cifra unui
exemplu.
**Treci la trade-ul următor doar după ce** ambele jumătăți au ieșit — la
țintă, pe trail sau la stop.
<a id="oglinda-short"></a>
## Oglinda — Sell Hammer, pe short
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_sell -->
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<text x="24" y="70" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Sell hammer — oglinda pe short (daily, exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="692" y="72.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL 100.25 — peste high-ul sell hammer-ului</text>
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<text x="30" y="113.6" fill="#188a3e">intrare short 98.95</text>
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<text x="692" y="196.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP 96.35 = 2R</text>
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<text x="24" y="445.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="278.5" y="85.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">sell hammer 99.00 / 100.20:</text>
<text x="278.5" y="99.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">corp mic jos, fitil lung în sus</text>
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<text x="224.0" y="402.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">close 98.95, sub low-ul lui 99.00:</text>
<text x="224.0" y="416.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">aici vinzi în lipsă</text>
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<text x="404.0" y="276.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ținta 96.35: aceeași distanță</text>
<text x="404.0" y="290.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ca la long, dar în jos</text>
<text x="24" y="557" fill="#333">Totul e întors: urcare înainte, corp mic jos și fitil lung în sus, intrarea la o închidere SUB</text><text x="24" y="573" fill="#333">low-ul candelei, stopul PESTE high-ul ei, ținta la aceeași distanță în jos.</text><text x="24" y="589" fill="#555">Completare proprie: cursul numește Sell Hammer ca simetric al lui Buy Hammer, dar nu-i scrie</text><text x="24" y="605" fill="#555">regulile separat. Seria e trade-ul long oglindit, deci riscul e tot 1.30.</text></svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_sell -->
Diagrama e chiar trade-ul de mai sus, oglindit: hammer-ul 63.30 / 62.10 devine
99.00 / 100.20, intrarea 63.35 devine 98.95, stopul 62.05 devine 100.25, iar
ținta 65.95 devine 96.35. Riscul rămâne exact 1.30, deci cele două nu se pot
contrazice la cifre.
Ce se schimbă, punct cu punct:
- înainte de candelă vine o **urcare**, nu o scădere;
- candela are corpul mic **jos** și fitilul lung **în sus**: cumpărătorii au
împins la 100.20 și au fost respinși;
- ea stă lângă o **rezistență** sau un pivot, deasupra, nu sub;
- trigger-ul e o închidere **sub low-ul** ei: 98.95, sub 99.00;
- stopul stă **deasupra** high-ului ei, la 100.25;
- ținta e la aceeași distanță, în jos.
Ce se adaugă pe short, din regulile generale ale cursului: nu shortezi acțiuni
sub 10 $ (riști un salt brusc când toți cei pe short cumpără odată) și nu
shortezi contra unui semnal de cumpărare pe timeframe-ul mare.
> **Completare proprie:** cursul numește Sell Hammer ca simetric al lui Buy
> Hammer, în lista de triggere a strategiei MDSRT, dar nu-i scrie regulile
> separat. Cele de mai sus sunt simetria aplicată, nu citate.
---
<a id="nivelul-2b"></a>
# Nivelul 2B — MBT-10, procedura în 5 pași
Ordinea e alta decât la buy hammer: aici întâi ai ideea, și abia la sfârșit
vine semnalul. Dacă începi cu semnalul — adică te uiți în scaner ce a intrat
azi în MBT-10 — te uiți la o listă de bare oarecare.
<a id="pasul-b1"></a>
## Pasul B1 — Ideea de bottom, cu cel puțin o confluență
**Înainte de orice semnal, ai nevoie de un motiv pentru care prețul s-ar opri
exact acolo: un suport, locul crimei, un double bottom, un buy doji sau o
divergență de volum.**
<!-- DIAGRAMA: mbt_confluente -->
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10, pasul „unde" — double bottom pe suportul weekly (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="263.0" y="268.0" fill="#b06000" style="font-weight:bold">double bottom: 87.60 și 87.55</text>
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<text x="124.0" y="402.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">piciorul 1: low 87.60,</text>
<text x="124.0" y="416.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">la 0,11 % peste suport</text>
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<text x="344.0" y="441.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">piciorul 2: low 87.55, cu 5 cenți mai jos,</text>
<text x="344.0" y="455.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">dar cu volum mai mic decât la piciorul 1 —</text>
<text x="344.0" y="469.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">vânzarea a slăbit (divergență de volum)</text>
<text x="24" y="610" fill="#333">Aici nu intri încă: diagrama arată doar ideea de bottom. MBT-10 e ultima piesă, și vine abia la close-ul unei bare.</text><text x="24" y="626" fill="#555">Cifrele 89.90 / 87.30 / 95.20 ale trade-ului sunt din exemplul construit al materialului;</text><text x="24" y="642" fill="#555">suportul weekly 87.50, pivotul daily 89.60 și structura barelor sunt ale mele.</text></svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: mbt_confluente -->
Pe diagramă sunt trei motive suprapuse. Prețul coboară până la suportul
weekly 87.50 și face acolo două minime aproape egale — 87.60 și 87.55, cu
5 cenți între ele, adică 0,06 %: un **double bottom**. Al doilea picior
coboară puțin mai jos decât primul, dar cu **volum mai mic** — asta e
divergența de volum: prețul mai face un minim, dar vânzarea din spatele lui a
slăbit.
Aici nu intri încă. Diagrama nu are nici intrare, nici stop desenate, fiindcă
la pasul ăsta nu există. Materialul e explicit: fără suport, volum și un
pattern de bottom, MBT-10 e doar un semnal pe o bară oarecare.
**Treci mai departe doar dacă** poți spune într-o propoziție de ce s-ar opri
prețul acolo, arătând cu degetul pe grafic.
<a id="pasul-b2"></a>
## Pasul B2 — Aștepți închiderea barei
**Te uiți la semnal o singură dată pe zi: la închidere. Ce arată sistemul în
timpul zilei nu contează.**
<!-- DIAGRAMA: mbt_close -->
<svg viewBox="0 0 751 676" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="72" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 — „în formare" nu e semnal (cifrele exemplului din material)</text>
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<text x="442.3" y="194.5" fill="#b06000" style="font-weight:bold">cele două zile care contează</text>
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<text x="723" y="204.9" fill="#555" text-anchor="end">intraday 55.30</text>
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<text x="30" y="313.7" fill="#1a5fb4">locul crimei 52.10 — structura ideii</text>
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<text x="24" y="525.9" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="123.8" y="117.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">la 55.30, în timpul zilei, semnalul</text>
<text x="123.8" y="131.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">se vedea „în formare" — dar ziua nu se</text>
<text x="123.8" y="145.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">terminase, deci nu exista nimic</text>
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<text x="303.8" y="383.3" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">s-a închis la 52.90: semnalul</text>
<text x="303.8" y="397.3" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">nu s-a produs niciodată</text>
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<text x="409.8" y="482.9" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">a doua zi: 51.50, sub 52.10 —</text>
<text x="409.8" y="496.9" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">structura a cedat, ideea a murit</text>
<text x="24" y="628" fill="#333">Te uiți la semnal o singură dată pe zi, la închidere. Cine a cumpărat la 55.30 a cumpărat un semnal</text><text x="24" y="644" fill="#333">care nu s-a produs, și a doua zi era deja sub structura pe care se sprijinea ideea.</text><text x="24" y="660" fill="#555">Reale sunt 55.30, 52.90, 51.50 și faptul că 51.50 e sub locul crimei; barele din jur sunt construite.</text></svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: mbt_close -->
Exemplul din material: în timpul zilei prețul era la 55.30 și semnalul se
vedea „în formare"; ziua s-a închis însă la 52.90, deci semnalul n-a existat
niciodată. A doua zi prețul a mers la 51.50, sub locul crimei, adică sub
structura pe care se sprijinea ideea. Cine a intrat pe „în formare" a intrat
într-un semnal care nu s-a produs.
Autorul, într-o sesiune de întrebări: „dacă se închide, e mișto de intrat".
Asta e singura condiție care contează.
**Treci mai departe doar dacă** bara s-a închis. Nu te uiți la grafic între
timp.
<a id="pasul-b3"></a>
## Pasul B3 — Condiția de preț: close peste pivotul daily
**Verifici singurul lucru din MBT-10 pe care îl poți calcula fără indicator:
ziua s-a închis peste pivotul daily?**
<!-- DIAGRAMA: mbt_ppd -->
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<text x="24" y="72" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 — condiția de preț: close peste pivotul daily (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="658" y="197.2" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">pivotul daily 89.60</text>
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<text x="30" y="289.6" fill="#555">suport weekly 87.50</text>
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<text x="24" y="412.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="114.5" y="355.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">a atins 89.70 în timpul zilei,</text>
<text x="114.5" y="369.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">dar s-a închis la 89.40, sub pivot:</text>
<text x="114.5" y="383.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">nu e semnal</text>
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<polygon points="330.5,177.2 321.7,175.4 326.7,169.1" fill="#188a3e"/>
<text x="260.5" y="103.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">s-a închis la 89.90, peste pivot:</text>
<text x="260.5" y="117.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">aici intri, la close-ul zilei</text>
<text x="24" y="514" fill="#333">Pivotul daily se recalculează în fiecare zi din maximul, minimul și închiderea zilei precedente;</text><text x="24" y="530" fill="#333">linia desenată e valoarea din ziua intrării, 89.60, nu un nivel fix.</text><text x="24" y="546" fill="#555">Asta e tot ce se poate verifica din MBT-10 fără indicatorul proprietar — „prima componentă" din el,</text><text x="24" y="562" fill="#555">cum îi spune materialul; restul formulei nu e publicat nicăieri.</text></svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: mbt_ppd -->
Pivotul daily se calculează din maximul, minimul și închiderea zilei
precedente, cu formula clasică — deci se schimbă în fiecare zi. Pe diagramă,
în ziua intrării el e la 89.60. Ziua dinainte urcă până la 89.70 în timpul
sesiunii, dar se închide la 89.40, sub pivot: nu e semnal. Ziua următoare se
închide la 89.90, peste pivot: aici intri, la close.
Materialul numește asta „prima componentă din MBT-10", ceea ce înseamnă
probabil că nu e singura — restul formulei nu e publicat nicăieri. Așa că:
condiția asta e **necesară, dar nu știm dacă e suficientă**. Într-o sesiune
apare și o variantă mai strictă, cu două închideri consecutive peste pivot și
al doilea pivot mai sus; sursele nu sunt de acord dacă ea aparține lui MBT-10
sau altui semnal (contradicția 1 din [nivelul 3](#contradictii)).
**Treci mai departe doar dacă** ziua s-a închis peste pivotul daily (și, dacă
ai platforma autorului, dacă semnalul chiar s-a aprins la close).
<a id="pasul-b4"></a>
## Pasul B4 — Stopul și mărimea poziției
**Pui stopul sub structura pe care s-a format ideea, nu la o distanță aleasă
de tine, și dimensionezi pentru două-trei încercări dacă vii după un gap
down.**
<!-- DIAGRAMA: mbt_stop -->
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 — stopul sub structură (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="104.5" y="135.0" fill="#b06000" style="font-weight:bold">structura care ține ideea</text>
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<text x="30" y="118.0" fill="#188a3e">intrare 89.90 (close-ul zilei)</text>
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<text x="652" y="214.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">suport weekly 87.50</text>
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<text x="30" y="222.0" fill="#c00">SL 87.30</text>
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<text x="206.0" y="306.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">sub 87.30 nu mai e double bottom:</text>
<text x="206.0" y="320.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ideea de la pasul 1 a murit,</text>
<text x="206.0" y="334.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">nu mai ai ce aștepta</text>
<polyline points="370.0,124.0 376.0,124.0 376.0,228.0 370.0,228.0" fill="none" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5"/><text x="382.0" y="180.0" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">1R = 2.60 $</text><text x="24" y="379" fill="#333">Mărimea, cu aceeași regulă ca la buy hammer: 2 % dintr-un cont de 10.000 $ = 200 $;</text><text x="24" y="395" fill="#333">200 / 2.60 = 76.9 → 76 de acțiuni, pierdere maximă 197.60 $.</text><text x="24" y="411" fill="#555">87.30 e cifra materialului, nu marja mea de 5 cenți; suportul weekly 87.50 e construit de mine ca stopul</text><text x="24" y="427" fill="#555">acela să aibă sub ce sta. Materialul nu dă niciun procent fix de stop pentru MBT-10.</text></svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: mbt_stop -->
Stopul stă sub ce ar invalida ideea de la pasul B1. În exemplul din capitol,
ideea era double bottom-ul de pe suportul weekly 87.50, deci stopul merge la
**87.30**, sub amândouă picioarele și sub suport. Riscul e 89.90 − 87.30 =
**2.60 $ pe acțiune**; pe același cont de 10.000 $ cu 2 %, 200 / 2.60 = 76,9,
deci **76 de acțiuni**.
Alte exemple de aceeași formă din material: sub codița hammer-ului care e și
locul crimei (52.00); sub low-ul barelor de după un gap down (63.20, apoi
60.40); la un gap up, sub low-ul barei de gap (32.80). De fiecare dată stopul
numește o structură, nu un procent — materialul nu dă niciun procent fix.
Excepția de mărime: **primul MBT-10 după un gap down poate să nu meargă**. În
exemplul din material, încercarea 1 e stopată, iar încercarea 2 merge până la
4,7R. De aceea împarți riscul la două-trei încercări, cu același risc în bani
la fiecare, în loc să pui tot pe prima. Diagrama e la
[nivelul 3](#gap-down).
**Treci mai departe doar dacă** poți arăta pe grafic structura de sub stop și
știi câte acțiuni cumperi.
<a id="pasul-b5"></a>
## Pasul B5 — Ieșirea
**Ieși la prima structură din stânga care a oprit prețul ultima dată, pentru
că MBT-10 nu are o țintă proprie.**
<!-- DIAGRAMA: mbt_iesire -->
<svg viewBox="0 0 700 603" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="72" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 — ieșirea la prima structură din stânga (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="95.0" y="98.4" fill="#b06000" style="font-weight:bold">de aici a pornit coborârea</text>
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<text x="367.0" y="98.2" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">drumul până la structură: 7 bare</text>
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<text x="672" y="115.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">ținta 95.20 = ultimul maxim dinaintea coborârii</text>
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<text x="30" y="253.4" fill="#188a3e">intrare 89.90</text>
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<text x="30" y="321.0" fill="#c00">SL 87.30</text>
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<text x="24" y="453.5" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="296.0" y="396.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ieși la 95.20 (+2.04R):</text>
<text x="296.0" y="410.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">prima structură care a oprit</text>
<text x="296.0" y="424.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">prețul ultima dată</text>
<text x="24" y="555" fill="#333">Materialul nu dă o regulă proprie de take-profit la MBT-10. Ce au în comun toate exemplele lui e că</text><text x="24" y="571" fill="#333">ținta e o structură vizibilă în stânga: un vârf anterior, ultimul maxim mai jos, sau închiderea unui gap.</text><text x="24" y="587" fill="#555">Aici: 89.90 → 95.20 = 2.04R, în 7 bare. Cifrele trade-ului sunt din exemplul construit al materialului.</text></svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: mbt_iesire -->
Asta e o gaură reală în material, nu o simplificare a mea: fișierul principal
nu fixează nicio regulă de take-profit. Toate cifrele de țintă din el sunt
aplicarea regulilor de către sumarizator, marcate ca atare. Ce au în comun:
ținta e mereu **o structură care se vede pe grafic**, în stânga intrării.
- vârful anterior — 58.90, adică 1,65R în exemplul de ansamblu;
- vârful de unde a pornit coborârea — 95.20, adică 2,04R în exemplul din pașii
de mai sus;
- ultimul maxim mai jos decât precedentul — 39.20, adică 3,6R;
- închiderea gap-ului — 70.60, adică 4,7R.
Ce te scoate înainte de țintă e tot stopul: o închidere sub structura pe care
s-a format ideea. Iar dacă ținta e atinsă și prețul se întoarce la locul
crimei, materialul admite o reintrare, cu un nou trigger.
**Treci la trade-ul următor doar după ce** poziția a ieșit la structură, pe
stop sau pe o reintrare pe care ai decis-o înainte.
---
<a id="nivelul-3"></a>
# Nivelul 3 — Rafinări
**Astea se citesc după ce ai făcut 20 de trade-uri mecanic, nu înainte.**
## Ce face un buy hammer A+
Pașii A1 și A2 sunt minimul. Cu cât ai mai multe motive independente pentru
același trade, cu atât e mai bun — dar materialul nu cere o poziție mai mare.
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_aplus -->
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">A+ — hammer la suport monthly</text>
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<text x="30" y="280.1" fill="#188a3e">suport monthly 42.00</text>
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<text x="24" y="308.7" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="224.0" y="302.7" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer la nivel (low 41.90)</text>
<text x="239.0" y="220.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">acumulare</text>
<text x="24" y="405" fill="#555">bara 13: 42.95 peste 42.90, volum bun.</text>
</g><g transform="translate(462,38)">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Mediocru — hammer fără nivel</text>
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<text x="30" y="147.5" fill="#777">fără nivel apropiat (suport 42.50 la −3,6 %)</text>
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<text x="24" y="173.5" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="224.0" y="131.9" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer în mijloc de range</text>
<text x="239.0" y="69.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">volum slab</text>
<text x="24" y="270" fill="#555">bara 13: 45.15 peste 45.10, volum slab.</text>
</g><text x="450" y="479" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-size:10px">Reguli din curs: locația la un nivel major, scăderea dinainte și volumul; trimiterile stau în fișa de surse.</text><text x="450" y="493" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-size:10px">Nivelurile 42.00 / 42.50 și cifrele de preț sunt construite (materialul nu dă prețuri pentru acest contrast).</text></svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_aplus -->
| Criteriu | A+ | Mediocru sau NU |
|---|---|---|
| Trendul dinainte | scădere clară spre un nivel major | fără scădere, sau într-o urcare (devine hanging man) |
| Locația | suport weekly / monthly / quarterly, ideal al doilea test fără minim nou | mijloc de range, fără nivel |
| Volumul | acumulare sau divergență; „volumul e la cer" după hammer | slab, „varză" |
| Evenimente | fără raport în zilele următoare | earnings în 1-2 zile |
Mai rar citate, dar tot confirmări: confluența cu un buy doji pe aceeași zonă,
un minim mai sus decât precedentul, un double bottom, sau filtrul Bull
Reversal pe scaner, care îți scurtează lista la candidații care au arătat deja
schimbarea de forță.
O observație din backtesting-ul autorului, care explică de ce pattern-ul apare
atât de des la fund: low-ul zilei e de cele mai multe ori un doji sau un
hammer.
## Ce face un MBT-10 A+
Singurul caz pe care materialul îl numește „cel mai puternic": un **gap up**
în MBT-10 după o cădere masivă, departe de medie, cu indicatorul stochastic în
zona de supravânzare pe monthly și weekly, cu un double bottom sau o serie de
doji-uri ideal în locul crimei, și cu divergență de volum pe ultimul picior.
Opusul: MBT-10 pe o bară oarecare, luat direct din scaner, fără nicio
confluență. Diferența nu e forma semnalului — el arată la fel, fiindcă nu se
vede — ci contextul din jur.
<a id="gap-down"></a>
## După un gap down, primul semnal e adesea prea devreme
<!-- DIAGRAMA: mbt_gapdown -->
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">După gap down — primul MBT-10 te scoate, al doilea merge (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="792" y="229.2" fill="#777" text-anchor="end">#1 intrare 64.80</text>
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<text x="792" y="274.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="end">#1 SL 63.20</text>
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<text x="792" y="302.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="end">#2 intrare 62.20</text>
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<text x="792" y="352.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="end">#2 SL 60.40</text>
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<text x="792" y="66.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP 70.60 = 4.7R (gap închis)</text>
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<text x="24" y="400.8" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="254.0" y="150.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">gap down</text>
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<text x="314.0" y="330.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">stop #1 atins</text>
<text x="359.0" y="358.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 #2</text>
<text x="24" y="515" fill="#555">MBT-10 #1: intrare 64.80 / SL 63.20 — risc 1R în bani</text><text x="24" y="531" fill="#555">MBT-10 #2: intrare 62.20 / SL 60.40 — risc 1R în bani (mărime ajustată)</text><text x="24" y="547" fill="#555">Exemplu construit: #1 și #2 au același risc în bani; #2 singur dă 4.7R.</text><text x="24" y="563" fill="#555">De aceea mărimea se împarte pe 2-3 încercări.</text></svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: mbt_gapdown -->
Ăsta e cazul care justifică împărțirea riscului de la [pasul B4](#pasul-b4).
Prețul cade cu un gol de la circa 71 la 66.40. Primul MBT-10 se închide la
64.80, cu stopul la 63.20, și e stopat. Al doilea se închide mai jos, la
62.20, cu stopul la 60.40 — **același risc în bani**, cu mărimea ajustată la
distanța mai mare. De acolo prețul urcă și închide gap-ul la 70.60, adică
4,7R. Încercarea a doua singură acoperă pierderea de la prima și lasă profit.
## Cascada de confirmări
Când ai semnal pe mai multe timeframe-uri, materialul le pune în ordine:
MBT-10 pe 60 de minute, apoi buy doji pe daily, apoi pe weekly, apoi pe
monthly. Regula: **intri la prima treaptă**, restul îți spun dacă rămâi în
trade, nu dacă intri.
Asta se bate parțial cu ideea că MBT-10 e ultima piesă din flux
(fundamental → monthly → weekly → daily → MBT-10). Vezi contradicția 3.
## Exemplul real: LABU, buy hammer la suportul monthly
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_labu -->
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<text x="732" y="196.1" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL sub low-ul hammer-ului 79.60 (construit)</text>
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<text x="732" y="182.5" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 81.30 (construit)</text>
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<text x="24" y="222.1" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="389.0" y="216.1" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer 80.90 / 79.60 (construit)</text>
<text x="599.0" y="46.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">+20 % (cifra cursului): 97.56 / 81.30</text>
<text x="24" y="320.1" fill="#c00">bara 23 = hammer: o 80.80, h 80.90, l 79.60, c 80.90 — corp 0.10, fitil jos 1.20 (H=C), pe suportul 80.00</text>
<text x="24" y="337.1" fill="#c00">bara 24 = confirmare: close 81.30 — close peste high-ul hammer-ului 80.90 = intrare 81.30 (construit)</text>
<text x="24" y="354.1" fill="#188a3e">Procentul (+20 % în jumătate de lună) și contextul (suport monthly) sunt ale cursului;</text>
<text x="24" y="379" fill="#555">nivelurile de preț sunt construite de sumarizator.</text>
</svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_labu -->
**Ce e real:** doar că a fost un buy hammer la suportul monthly și că a făcut
**+20 % în jumătate de lună**. Autorul: „din suportul nostru monthly a
plecat". Materialul **nu dă intrare, stop sau țintă** pentru cazul ăsta;
prețurile de pe diagramă sunt puse de mine, ca să se vadă structura.
Pașii, pe el: scădere până în suportul monthly, hammer chiar pe nivel,
candela următoare se închide peste high-ul lui, stopul sub low-ul lui.
## Exemplul real: Tesla, trigger MBT-10
<!-- DIAGRAMA: mbt_tesla -->
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Tesla — daily: trigger MBT-10, intrare 311.21 → 333.00 = +7.0 % în 6 zile</text>
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<text x="592" y="256.2" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">rezultat 333.00 = +7.0 % în 6 zile</text>
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<rect x="369.5" y="262.2" width="9" height="15.0" fill="#c00"/>
<line x1="389.0" y1="273.5" x2="389.0" y2="304.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="384.5" y="277.2" width="9" height="22.5" fill="#c00"/>
<line x1="404.0" y1="281.0" x2="404.0" y2="304.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="399.5" y="284.8" width="9" height="15.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
<text x="269.0" y="444.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">trigger MBT-10</text>
<text x="359.0" y="232.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">exact 6 bare</text>
<text x="24" y="468" fill="#555">Cifrele 311.21 / 333.00 / +7.0 % sunt reale;</text><text x="24" y="484" fill="#555">structura barelor dintre ele e construită.</text><text x="24" y="500" fill="#555">SL: materialul nu îl dă pentru acest exemplu.</text></svg>
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: mbt_tesla -->
**Ce e real:** intrarea la închiderea zilei, **311.21**, ieșirea la **333.00**
șase zile mai târziu, adică **+7,0 %** pe acțiune. Pe opțiuni, aceeași mișcare
a însemnat 50-70 %. **Ce lipsește:** materialul nu dă stopul acestui exemplu,
deci diagrama nu îl desenează.
Al doilea caz citat, fără prețuri, e Oracle: double bottom plus buy hammer
plus MBT-10, un setup de manual — dar cu raport în zilele următoare, deci
gamble trade, deci nu se intră. Un setup complet nu anulează riscul de
eveniment.
## Transfer (judecata mea, nu a cursului)
**Pe prop.** Limita zilnică de pierdere se calculează și pe pozițiile
deschise, iar ambele strategii țin poziția peste noapte prin construcție —
deci dacă firma interzice overnight-ul, rămâne doar varianta de 60 de minute.
Sizing-ul calculat înapoi din limită, pe un cont de 50.000 $ cu limită zilnică
de 1.000 $: o zi proastă planificată ≤ 500 $, cu cel mult două poziții
simultane, deci 250 $ pe poziție (0,5 %). La buy hammer, cu distanța de 1.30:
192 de acțiuni. La MBT-10, cu distanța de 2.60: 96 de acțiuni. După un gap
down, cei 250 $ se împart la două-trei încercări.
Verdict: **buy hammer merge** cu ajustările astea, fiindcă intrarea e pur preț
și stopul e structural. **MBT-10 doar parțial**, la firme care permit swing
peste noapte și doar pe aproximarea „close peste pivotul daily".
**Pe BVB.** Scanerele și indicatorii proprietari nu există, deci lucrezi cu o
listă manuală de 8-12 nume lichide din BET (TLV, H2O, SNP, SNN, BRD, SNG, EL,
TGN, DIGI, M) și cu pivoți calculați în Excel din maximul, minimul și
închiderea perioadei precedente:
```
PP = (H + L + C) / 3
R1 = 2*PP - L S1 = 2*PP - H
R2 = PP + (H - L) S2 = PP - (H - L)
```
Autorul a confirmat că pivoții clasici se calculează „1 la 1" pe BVB, fără
platforma lui. Pragurile US nu se traduc în număr de acțiuni; măsoară în
valoare: cel puțin 1-2 milioane RON pe zi, medie pe 10 zile, spread sub 1 %,
și cel puțin 30-50 de tranzacții pe zi. Short-ul practic nu se poate face, deci
rămâne doar jumătatea long. Un spread de 1 % mănâncă jumătate dintr-o țintă
1:1.
Verdict: **buy hammer merge degradat, long-only** — toată regula de intrare și
ieșire se aplică, pierzi scanerul, filtrele și short-ul. **MBT-10 nu merge ca
sistem**: din el supraviețuiește doar condiția de close peste pivotul daily,
fără indicator, fără scaner, fără cascadă, cu un edge mult mai slab.
Cifrele de sizing și pragurile de lichiditate de mai sus sunt calculul meu;
materialul nu dă risc per trade pentru niciuna dintre cele două jumătăți și
nu dă niciun prag pentru BVB.
<a id="contradictii"></a>
## Unde se contrazice materialul
Nu aleg eu între variante.
1. **A doua închidere peste pivot e regulă de MBT-10 sau de alt semnal?** O
sesiune o leagă explicit de MBT-10 („așteptați un MBT-10 să închidă măcar o
perioadă și vedeți și a doua oară dacă se închide"); alte două surse o leagă
de pivotul daily și de MP², fără să pomenească MBT-10. Practic: folosește-o
ca filtru de bottom dacă vrei, dar nu conta că e „regula MBT-10".
2. **Momentul trigger-ului la hammer: scaner sau pattern?** Scanerul tratează
`BHATM = 0` ca moment al semnalului, adică ziua-hammer; lecția de pattern
cere închiderea zilei următoare. Nu e o contradicție de fond — scanerul dă
candidatul, pattern-ul dă intrarea — dar sunt două prețuri de intrare
diferite.
3. **MBT-10 e ultima piesă, sau se intră și înainte?** O sursă pune fluxul
fundamental → monthly → weekly → daily → MBT-10, cu intrarea la close-ul în
MBT-10. Sinteza arată mai multe cazuri în care se intră mai devreme (buy
doji pe 60 de minute în direcția swing-ului daily, MICI, buy momentum direct).
Practic: MBT-10 e ultima piesă **pe daily**, nu în general.
4. **Gap: intri pe el sau aștepți jumătatea lui?** O sursă numește gap up-ul în
MBT-10 „cel mai puternic caz"; alta spune să nu cumperi după gap și să
aștepți interiorul lui. Sinteza împacă parțial: cu semnal confirmat la close,
gap-ul poate rămâne deschis; fără semnal, nu te poziționa înainte de
închiderea lui.
5. **Rata de reușită a trigger-ului:** „65-70 %" într-o lecție, „așa la 60 %"
după o scădere lungă în altă sesiune. Socotește cu 60 % și nu sări stopul pe
baza cifrei mai mari.
6. **Formula MBT-10 lipsește**, și ambele surse care o ating sunt de acord că
lipsește. Nu inventa una.
Contradicțiile din material, toate la un loc:
[`A2_contradictii.md`](A2_contradictii.md).
## Ce trebuie să exersezi
1. Marchează retroactiv 20 de hammer-e pe daily, pe 8-12 nume lichide: data,
cele patru prețuri, dacă a confirmat în candela următoare, care era nivelul
major cel mai apropiat și ce s-a întâmplat în următoarele 5 zile.
2. Calculează pivoții daily și monthly pentru 6 luni în urmă, pe 5 nume, în
Excel, și numără câte hammer-e au căzut la cel mult 1 % de un nivel. Vezi
cât filtrează condiția.
3. Compară pe hârtie hammer la nivel major cu hammer în mijlocul range-ului, pe
minim 15 perechi de semnale.
4. Testează aproximarea MBT-10 (close peste pivotul daily) pe 20 de zile, pe
2-3 nume, cu stopul sub structură, ca să vezi cât de slab e edge-ul fără
indicator.
5. Măsoară spread-ul real, 5 zile la rând, și scoate de pe listă ce trece de 1 %.
## Legături
- [`01_buy_doji.md`](01_buy_doji.md) — același schelet (formă de candelă →
confirmare la close → stop structural). Buy hammer apare des chiar după un
buy doji; când sunt pe aceeași candelă, semnalul e mai puternic.
- [`02_mp2.md`](02_mp2.md) — MP² spune *unde* (bottom, pivoți), trigger-ul de
candelă spune *când*. Contradicția 1 arată că regula celor două închideri
peste pivot e atribuită când lui MBT-10, când lui MP².
- [`04_selectia.md`](04_selectia.md) — cum alegi simbolul.
- [`A1_risc.md`](A1_risc.md) — riscul și execuția.
---
<a id="checklist"></a>
## Checklist de tipărit
**Buy hammer**
- [ ] (A1) Scădere clară înainte — nu urcare, altfel e hanging man.
- [ ] (A1) Fitilul de jos ≥ 2x corpul, corpul în treimea de sus.
- [ ] (A2) Low-ul la cel mult 1-2 % de un suport sau pivot weekly / monthly / quarterly.
- [ ] (A3) Candela următoare s-a închis peste high-ul hammer-ului.
- [ ] (A4) Stop sub low-ul hammer-ului (sau sub double bottom); acțiuni = risc / distanță.
- [ ] (A5) Prima jumătate la 1:1; restul pe trail sub swing low-uri.
- [ ] Fără earnings în zilele următoare.
- [ ] Short: urcare înainte, corp jos, fitil sus, close sub low, stop deasupra, preț peste 10 $.
**MBT-10**
- [ ] (B1) Am o idee de bottom cu cel puțin o confluență, pe care o pot arăta cu degetul.
- [ ] (B2) Aștept închiderea barei — nu mă uit la „în formare".
- [ ] (B3) Ziua s-a închis peste pivotul daily.
- [ ] (B4) Știu structura de sub stop; după un gap down, împart riscul la 2-3 încercări.
- [ ] (B5) Ținta e o structură din stânga, nu un procent — strategia nu are țintă proprie.
- [ ] Fără earnings în zilele următoare.
- [ ] Am acceptat că formula rămâne necunoscută, deci semnalul nu e verificabil independent.
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