646205e60f
Verificare independenta fata de harvest/ si transcrieri. Toate punctele confirmate in surse inainte de reparatie, niciunul contestat. Conținut: - citat compus cu sensul rasturnat, scos: documentul ii punea in gura "rejectat sub pivotul de an, asta nu-mi place". In transcriere, la 25.08 el spune despre exact acea situatie "asta imi place"; "nu-mi place" e din 29.07 si e despre volumul in distributie negativa. Coloana NU are acum un citat real, din 03.09, iar 29.07 e adaugata la Surse. - "timeframe-urile instituționale" sunt, la el, monthly si weekly (04.09, citat), nu quarterly si anual. Documentul 05 le definea deja corect, deci cele doua se contraziceau. - pasajul despre wedge nu mai e prezentat ca regula explicita: el vrea volum mai mare, iar breakout-ul masiv il leaga de reintrarea in MBT-10. - "proiectie neutra": imperativul "trateaza-le la fel" a devenit deducție marcata, si indicatia e declarata in completari, nu doar legatura. EROARE IN SURSA, gasita pe drum: harvest/2026-08-25.md l.15 da ca Trigger NU "pretul ramane sub pivotul de an (reject)", dar in transcriere (l.9) el zice "Reject-a si sub pivotul de an, stochasticul s-a dus aproape de oversold, asta imi place". Rescris dupa transcriere, cu nota in Surse ca recolta greseste acolo. Distinctia reala e stochasticul: sub pivotul de an cu oversold ii place, cu overbought e semnal contra (02.09). Desen: - svg9: toate cele patru etichete de swing stateau SUB linia pivotului desi candelele erau deasupra - exact pe dos fata de regula pe care o ilustrau. - svg10: etichetele din dreapta erau decalate cu o poziție fata de liniile lor. Cauza era in spread() din PChart: SMA-20 se termina exact pe linia pivot Q3 si impingerea mergea doar in jos, deci fiecare eticheta de sub ea aluneca. Acum etichetele care se ating se asaza centrat in jurul poziției lor naturale, iar peste 3px de linia lor PChart trage o linie de legatura. Semnatura si interfata clasei sunt neschimbate. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01MtSTyTmt6AbCL9j5ajEDm1
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<title>Analiză zilnică / #4 — Pivoți și proiecții</title>
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<nav class="crumbs"><a href="../index.html">Sumarizări</a><span class="sep">/</span><a href="../index.html#08_ANALIZA_ZILNICA">Analiză zilnică</a><span class="sep">/</span>#4 — Pivoți și proiecții</nav><h1 id="analiza-zilnica-4-pivoti-si-proiectii">Analiză zilnică / #4 — Pivoți și proiecții</h1>
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<h2 id="tldr">TLDR</h2>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>Pivotul</strong> perioadei = (H + L + C) / 3 al perioadei <strong>încheiate</strong>. Pe
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daily te uiți la pivotul <strong>monthly</strong>, pe weekly la <strong>quarterly</strong>, pe
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monthly la pivotul <strong>de an</strong>.</li>
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<li><strong>Proiecția bull</strong> = pivotul curent peste cel anterior: aștepți R1 și R2,
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un singur suport. <strong>Bear</strong> = invers. Proiecția nu e trigger.</li>
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||
<li><strong>Deasupra pivotului</strong> = zona cumpărătorilor. Închiderea peste pivot e
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||
condiția din sfântul buy doji și din strategia MICI; <strong>reject sub pivot</strong>
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= „nu-mi place", cumperi mai jos, în suportul următor.</li>
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||
<li><strong>Pivoți divergenți</strong> (suport și pivot mai sus, rezistență mai jos) =
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<strong>trading range</strong>. Dacă totuși atinge rezistența, are șanse să continue.</li>
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||
<li><strong>Proiecție „inside"</strong> (range lunar mult mai îngust decât luna trecută) =
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||
<strong>compresie</strong>. Nu obligatoriu: poate ieși spre rezistența lunii trecute,
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||
dacă are volum.</li>
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||
<li><strong>Scărița pe pivoți</strong>: pivotul fiecărei perioade mai sus decât precedentul
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e structură bull, la fel ca higher highs / higher lows pe preț.</li>
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||
</ul>
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||
<hr />
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<h2 id="de-ce-urmaresti-pivotii">De ce urmărești pivoții</h2>
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<p>Pivotul e un nivel <strong>calculat</strong>, nu desenat cu ochiul: toată lumea care
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folosește floor pivots vede exact aceeași cifră. De aceea acolo se
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||
strâng ordine, iar reacția prețului la nivel spune ceva: dacă vânzătorii
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||
nu reușesc să închidă prețul sub pivot, cineva îl apără; dacă
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||
cumpărătorii nu reușesc să-l închidă deasupra, oferta de acolo e mai
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||
mare decât cererea.</p>
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||
<p>Ce decizie te ajută să iei:</p>
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||
<ul>
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||
<li><strong>direcția permisă</strong> — un buy doji deasupra pivotului monthly, în
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proiecție bull, e un trade; același buy doji sub pivot, rejectat, nu
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||
(10.09, 03.09);</li>
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<li><strong>unde intri</strong> — nu la primul suport, ci acolo unde pivotul coincide cu
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alte niveluri: S2, suportul monthly, locul crimei, gap-ul închis (21.08);</li>
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||
<li><strong>unde ieși</strong> — R1, R2 și rezistența lunii trecute sunt treptele țintei;</li>
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<li><strong>cât de mult aștepți de la lună</strong> — proiecția inside îți spune că luna
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are loc puțin, deci ținta e mai mică (10.09).</li>
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</ul>
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<blockquote>
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<p>„Proiecția e proiecție. Eu trebuie să am și trend, că degeaba am
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proiecție dacă n-am trigger. Pot să am proiecție bull și el să cadă."
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(Q&A <a href="../09_QA/15_2025-10-14.html">14.10.2025</a>)</p>
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</blockquote>
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<hr />
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<h2 id="termenii-o-singura-data">Termenii, o singură dată</h2>
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||
<table>
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||
<thead>
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<tr>
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||
<th>Termen</th>
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||
<th>Ce înseamnă aici</th>
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||
</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>pivot (PP)</strong></td>
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<td>(High + Low + Close) / 3 al perioadei încheiate; nivelul de echilibru al perioadei noi</td>
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||
</tr>
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<tr>
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||
<td><strong>R1 / R2</strong></td>
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<td>rezistențele: R1 = 2×PP − Low, R2 = PP + (High − Low)</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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||
<td><strong>S1 / S2</strong></td>
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<td>suporturile: S1 = 2×PP − High, S2 = PP − (High − Low)</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>pivot monthly / quarterly / de an</strong></td>
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<td>pivotul lunii, trimestrului, anului; „suportul de an" = S1 pe pivotul anual</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>proiecție bull / bear</strong></td>
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<td>pivotul perioadei curente peste / sub pivotul perioadei anterioare</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>proiecție inside</strong></td>
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<td>range-ul S1–R1 al lunii curente mult mai îngust decât al lunii trecute → compresie</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>pivoți divergenți</strong></td>
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<td>suport și pivot mai sus decât luna trecută, rezistență mai jos → trading range</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>reject pe pivot</strong></td>
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||
<td>codița trece de pivot, close-ul rămâne de partea cealaltă. „Sub pivot" = pivotul a fost rezistență; „deasupra" = a fost suport</td>
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||
</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>scărița</strong></td>
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<td>higher highs / higher lows, treaptă cu treaptă; pe pivoți: fiecare pivot mai sus decât precedentul</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>buy doji</strong></td>
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||
<td>trigger: prima închidere peste high-ul unui doji, în max. 3 candele (vezi <a href="01_buy_doji_si_strategia_mici.html">#1</a>)</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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<hr />
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||
<h2 id="1-ce-pivot-pe-ce-grafic">1. Ce pivot pe ce grafic</h2>
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<p>Pivotul se calculează din perioada <strong>cu o treaptă peste</strong> timeframe-ul
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||
graficului, ca să ai un reper care nu se schimbă la fiecare bară
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||
(<a href="../03_MODUL_2/03_timeframes_set_up.html">Modul 2 / timeframes</a>):</p>
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||
<table>
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<thead>
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||
<tr>
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||
<th>Graficul</th>
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||
<th>Pivotul pe care îl citești</th>
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||
<th>Cum apare în analiza zilnică</th>
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||
</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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||
<td>60 min</td>
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<td>weekly</td>
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<td>„în suport weekly", intrare de finețe</td>
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||
</tr>
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||
<tr>
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||
<td>daily</td>
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||
<td><strong>monthly</strong></td>
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||
<td>„deasupra pivotului monthly", „proiecție bull"</td>
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||
</tr>
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||
<tr>
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||
<td>weekly</td>
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||
<td><strong>quarterly</strong></td>
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||
<td>„rejectat pe pivotul quarterly", „succesiunea pivoților quarterly"</td>
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||
</tr>
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<tr>
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||
<td>monthly</td>
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||
<td><strong>de an</strong></td>
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||
<td>„a ținut pivotul de an ca la carte", „sub pivotul de an"</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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<p>Cu cât timeframe-ul e mai mare, cu atât mai mulți bani mari se uită la
|
||
nivel, deci un reject sau un close pe pivotul quarterly ori pe cel de an
|
||
cântărește mai mult. Atenție la termen: „timeframe-urile instituționale"
|
||
sunt la el <strong>monthly și weekly</strong> (04.09: „cele două time frame-uri
|
||
instituționale, însemnând monthly și weekly").</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="2-proiectia-bull-calculul-si-ce-astepti-de-la-luna">2. Proiecția bull: calculul și ce aștepți de la lună</h2>
|
||
<!--SVG:bull-->
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 830 308" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, pivot monthly</text>
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<line x1="96.5" y1="236.0" x2="411.5" y2="236.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="90.5" y="240.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">pivot A 48.00</text>
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<text x="732.5" y="85.3" fill="#1a5fb4">R2 55.73</text>
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<line x1="411.5" y1="124.7" x2="726.5" y2="124.7" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="732.5" y="128.7" fill="#1a5fb4">R1 53.57</text>
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<line x1="411.5" y1="195.3" x2="726.5" y2="195.3" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="732.5" y="199.3" fill="#b06000">pivot B 50.03</text>
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<line x1="411.5" y1="238.7" x2="726.5" y2="238.7" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="732.5" y="242.7" fill="#c00">S1 47.87</text>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="242.0" x2="134.0" y2="266.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="659.0" y1="80.0" x2="659.0" y2="102.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="654.5" y="86.0" width="9" height="10.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="674.0" y1="80.0" x2="674.0" y2="104.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="684.5" y="98.0" width="9" height="8.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="704.0" y1="92.0" x2="704.0" y2="112.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="699.5" y="98.0" width="9" height="8.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="719.0" y1="88.0" x2="719.0" y2="104.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="714.5" y="94.0" width="9" height="4.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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||
<text x="449.0" y="219.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ține pivotul</text>
|
||
<text x="539.0" y="110.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">R1</text>
|
||
<text x="659.0" y="70.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">R2</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="296" fill="#555">Pivotul B = (H 52.20 + L 46.50 + C 51.40) / 3 = 50.03 > 48.00: proiecție bull.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<p>Calculul, pas cu pas, pe seria construită:</p>
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li><strong>Luna A</strong> s-a încheiat cu <strong>high 52.20, low 46.50, close 51.40</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Pivotul lunii B</strong> = (52.20 + 46.50 + 51.40) / 3 = <strong>50.03</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>R1</strong> = 2 × 50.03 − 46.50 = <strong>53.57</strong>; <strong>R2</strong> = 50.03 + 5.70 = <strong>55.73</strong>;
|
||
<strong>S1</strong> = 2 × 50.03 − 52.20 = <strong>47.87</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>Pivotul lunii A era <strong>48.00</strong>. 50.03 > 48.00 → <strong>proiecție bull</strong>.</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
<p>Ce s-a întâmplat în luna B, exact ca în manual: pullback-ul din primele
|
||
zile se oprește la <strong>50.05</strong>, pe pivot; prețul atinge <strong>R1 în a 9-a zi</strong> și
|
||
<strong>R2 în a 17-a</strong>. S1 nu a fost atins. Într-o proiecție bull aștepți două
|
||
rezistențe atinse și un singur suport; de aceea, cu stocastic și volum în
|
||
regulă, un pullback la pivot e loc de cumpărat, nu de vândut.</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Dacă ne închidem deasupra pivotului și McLennal oscillator deasupra
|
||
linei de zero, posibil o să continuă urcarea. Altfel, probabil va fi un
|
||
bearflake" (10.09, pe indici)</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<h2 id="3-proiectia-bear-cu-short-pe-reject">3. Proiecția bear, cu short pe reject</h2>
|
||
<!--SVG:bear-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 858 308" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, pivot monthly</text>
|
||
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<line x1="726.5" y1="221.3" x2="731.5" y2="216.7" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
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<line x1="726.5" y1="226.0" x2="731.5" y2="230.7" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1"/>
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<line x1="96.5" y1="110.0" x2="411.5" y2="110.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="90.5" y="114.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">pivot A 52.00</text>
|
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|
||
<text x="732.5" y="111.3" fill="#1a5fb4">R1 52.13</text>
|
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|
||
<text x="732.5" y="157.3" fill="#b06000">pivot B 49.97</text>
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|
||
<text x="732.5" y="220.7" fill="#c00">S1 46.43</text>
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|
||
<text x="732.5" y="268.7" fill="#c00">S2 44.27</text>
|
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<line x1="96.5" y1="142.0" x2="726.5" y2="142.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="732.5" y="143.3" fill="#c00">SL 50.40</text>
|
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<line x1="96.5" y1="170.0" x2="726.5" y2="170.0" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="732.5" y="174.0" fill="#188a3e">intrare short 49.00</text>
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<line x1="96.5" y1="226.0" x2="726.5" y2="226.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||
<text x="732.5" y="234.7" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 46.20 = 2R</text>
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<rect x="99.5" y="90.0" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="80.0" x2="119.0" y2="96.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="86.0" width="9" height="4.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="80.0" x2="134.0" y2="104.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="86.0" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="149.0" y1="86.0" x2="149.0" y2="104.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="92.0" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="86.0" x2="164.0" y2="116.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="92.0" width="9" height="18.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="179.0" y1="104.0" x2="179.0" y2="126.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="110.0" width="9" height="10.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="194.0" y1="108.0" x2="194.0" y2="126.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="189.5" y="114.0" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="414.5" y="170.0" width="9" height="8.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="629.0" y1="224.0" x2="629.0" y2="246.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="644.0" y1="228.0" x2="644.0" y2="246.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="639.5" y="234.0" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="659.0" y1="228.0" x2="659.0" y2="256.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="674.0" y1="244.0" x2="674.0" y2="264.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="669.5" y="250.0" width="9" height="8.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="689.0" y1="246.0" x2="689.0" y2="264.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="684.5" y="252.0" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="704.0" y1="246.0" x2="704.0" y2="266.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="699.5" y="252.0" width="9" height="8.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="719.0" y1="248.0" x2="719.0" y2="266.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="714.5" y="254.0" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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||
<text x="449.0" y="130.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">reject</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="296" fill="#555">Pivotul B 49.97 < pivotul A 52.00: proiecție bear. Rejectul sub pivot dă short-ul.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<p>Oglinda, pentru short:</p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Pivotul lunii A: <strong>52.00</strong>. Luna A închide la 48.60 → pivotul lunii B
|
||
<strong>49.97</strong>, sub 52.00 → <strong>proiecție bear</strong>. S1 <strong>46.43</strong>, S2 <strong>44.27</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>În a 3-a zi a lunii B, raliul atinge <strong>50.30</strong>, peste pivot, dar
|
||
închide la <strong>49.70</strong>, sub el: <strong>reject sub pivot</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>A doua zi închide la <strong>49.00</strong>, sub low-ul barei de reject (49.20) →
|
||
<strong>intrare short 49.00</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>SL 50.40</strong>, 10 cenți peste codița rejectului: dacă prețul trece de
|
||
acolo, pivotul nu a mai fost rezistență.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>TP 46.20 = 2R</strong> (risc 1.40), atins în a 12-a zi, aproape de S1.
|
||
Luna merge apoi până la S2: două suporturi atinse, nicio rezistență.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="4-pivoti-divergenti-trading-range">4. Pivoți divergenți = trading range</h2>
|
||
<p>Regula (03.09): luna curentă are <strong>suportul și pivotul mai sus</strong> decât
|
||
luna trecută, dar <strong>rezistența mai jos</strong>. Nivelurile se strâng din ambele
|
||
părți, deci luna nu are o direcție clară.</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„suport-ul mai sus, pivot-ul mai sus, resistance-ul da-i un pic mai jos,
|
||
deci e cumva un training range aici, dar dacă atinge resistance-ul ăsta,
|
||
are mari șans să ducă"</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p>Mecanic, de ce se întâmplă asta: R1 = 2×PP − Low și S1 = 2×PP − High, deci
|
||
R1 − S1 = High − Low al lunii trecute. O lună trecută care a urcat și a
|
||
coborât înapoi spre mijloc dă un pivot mai sus (media) și un range mai
|
||
îngust decât luna dinaintea ei.</p>
|
||
<h3 id="nu-luna-ramane-in-range">NU: luna rămâne în range</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:divergenti_nu-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 883 314" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, pivot monthly</text>
|
||
<line x1="411.5" y1="52.0" x2="411.5" y2="272.0" stroke="#bbb" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="80.0" x2="411.5" y2="80.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="90.5" y="84.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">R1 A 54.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="176.0" x2="411.5" y2="176.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="90.5" y="180.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">pivot A 50.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="272.0" x2="411.5" y2="272.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="90.5" y="276.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">S1 A 46.00</text>
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||
<line x1="411.5" y1="101.6" x2="726.5" y2="101.6" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="2"/>
|
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<text x="732.5" y="105.6" fill="#1a5fb4">R1 B 53.10 (mai jos)</text>
|
||
<line x1="411.5" y1="161.6" x2="726.5" y2="161.6" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="732.5" y="165.6" fill="#b06000">pivot B 50.60 (mai sus)</text>
|
||
<line x1="411.5" y1="231.2" x2="726.5" y2="231.2" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="732.5" y="235.2" fill="#c00">S1 B 47.70 (mai sus)</text>
|
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<line x1="104.0" y1="130.4" x2="104.0" y2="159.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="137.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="113.6" x2="119.0" y2="144.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="120.8" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="99.2" x2="134.0" y2="128.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="106.4" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="149.0" y1="92.0" x2="149.0" y2="113.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="99.2" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="92.0" x2="164.0" y2="120.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="99.2" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="179.0" y1="106.4" x2="179.0" y2="135.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="113.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="194.0" y1="120.8" x2="194.0" y2="152.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="189.5" y="128.0" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="204.5" y="144.8" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="219.5" y="161.6" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="629.0" y1="120.8" x2="629.0" y2="152.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="624.5" y="128.0" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="644.0" y1="108.8" x2="644.0" y2="135.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="639.5" y="116.0" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="659.0" y1="108.8" x2="659.0" y2="135.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="654.5" y="116.0" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="674.0" y1="120.8" x2="674.0" y2="154.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="669.5" y="128.0" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="689.0" y1="140.0" x2="689.0" y2="171.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="684.5" y="147.2" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="704.0" y1="156.8" x2="704.0" y2="188.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="699.5" y="164.0" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="719.0" y1="161.6" x2="719.0" y2="188.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="714.5" y="168.8" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="464.0" y="84.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">nu atinge R1</text>
|
||
<text x="554.0" y="253.2" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">nu atinge S1</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="302" fill="#555">Suport și pivot mai sus, rezistență mai jos: luna B e un trading range.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Luna A avea pivot <strong>50.00</strong>, R1 <strong>54.00</strong>, S1 <strong>46.00</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>Luna A: high 53.50, low 48.10, close 50.20 → luna B: pivot <strong>50.60</strong>
|
||
(mai sus), S1 <strong>47.70</strong> (mai sus), R1 <strong>53.10</strong> (mai jos).</li>
|
||
<li>Luna B urcă până la <strong>52.90</strong> și coboară până la <strong>48.20</strong>: nu atinge nici
|
||
R1, nici S1. Cine a cumpărat „breakout-ul" la 52.90 a cumpărat vârful
|
||
range-ului.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h3 id="da-atinge-rezistenta-si-continua">DA: atinge rezistența și continuă</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:divergenti_da-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 876 388" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, pivot monthly</text>
|
||
<line x1="411.5" y1="52.0" x2="411.5" y2="346.4" stroke="#bbb" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
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||
<line x1="726.5" y1="176.0" x2="731.5" y2="171.4" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="726.5" y1="180.8" x2="731.5" y2="185.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="154.4" x2="411.5" y2="154.4" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="90.5" y="158.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">R1 A 54.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="250.4" x2="411.5" y2="250.4" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="90.5" y="254.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">pivot A 50.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="346.4" x2="411.5" y2="346.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="90.5" y="350.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">S1 A 46.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="411.5" y1="176.0" x2="726.5" y2="176.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="732.5" y="175.4" fill="#1a5fb4">R1 B 53.10</text>
|
||
<line x1="411.5" y1="236.0" x2="726.5" y2="236.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="732.5" y="240.0" fill="#b06000">pivot B 50.60</text>
|
||
<line x1="411.5" y1="305.6" x2="726.5" y2="305.6" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="732.5" y="309.6" fill="#c00">S1 B 47.70</text>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="180.8" x2="726.5" y2="180.8" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||
<text x="732.5" y="189.4" fill="#c00">SL 52.90</text>
|
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||
<text x="732.5" y="160.8" fill="#188a3e">intrare 53.90</text>
|
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<line x1="96.5" y1="106.4" x2="726.5" y2="106.4" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="732.5" y="110.4" fill="#1a5fb4">TP = R2 B 56.00 = 2.1R</text>
|
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<line x1="104.0" y1="204.8" x2="104.0" y2="233.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="212.0" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="188.0" x2="119.0" y2="219.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="195.2" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="173.6" x2="134.0" y2="202.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="180.8" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="149.0" y1="166.4" x2="149.0" y2="188.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="173.6" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="166.4" x2="164.0" y2="195.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="173.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="179.0" y1="180.8" x2="179.0" y2="209.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="188.0" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="194.0" y1="195.2" x2="194.0" y2="226.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="189.5" y="202.4" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="209.0" y1="212.0" x2="209.0" y2="243.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="204.5" y="219.2" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="224.0" y1="228.8" x2="224.0" y2="260.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="219.5" y="236.0" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="239.0" y1="245.6" x2="239.0" y2="276.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="234.5" y="252.8" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="254.0" y1="262.4" x2="254.0" y2="288.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="249.5" y="269.6" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="269.0" y1="274.4" x2="269.0" y2="296.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="264.5" y="281.6" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="284.0" y1="269.6" x2="284.0" y2="296.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="279.5" y="276.8" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="299.0" y1="252.8" x2="299.0" y2="284.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="294.5" y="260.0" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="314.0" y1="236.0" x2="314.0" y2="267.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="309.5" y="243.2" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="329.0" y1="221.6" x2="329.0" y2="250.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="324.5" y="228.8" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="344.0" y1="209.6" x2="344.0" y2="236.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="339.5" y="216.8" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="359.0" y1="209.6" x2="359.0" y2="238.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="354.5" y="216.8" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="374.0" y1="224.0" x2="374.0" y2="252.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="369.5" y="231.2" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="389.0" y1="228.8" x2="389.0" y2="252.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="384.5" y="236.0" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="404.0" y1="228.8" x2="404.0" y2="252.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="399.5" y="236.0" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="434.0" y1="209.6" x2="434.0" y2="238.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="584.0" y1="125.6" x2="584.0" y2="147.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="599.0" y1="118.4" x2="599.0" y2="147.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="629.0" y1="106.4" x2="629.0" y2="128.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="644.0" y1="99.2" x2="644.0" y2="128.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="639.5" y="106.4" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="659.0" y1="87.2" x2="659.0" y2="113.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="654.5" y="94.4" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="674.0" y1="87.2" x2="674.0" y2="108.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="669.5" y="94.4" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="689.0" y1="84.8" x2="689.0" y2="108.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="684.5" y="92.0" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="704.0" y1="84.8" x2="704.0" y2="106.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="699.5" y="92.0" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="719.0" y1="80.0" x2="719.0" y2="106.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="714.5" y="87.2" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="479.0" y="133.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">close peste R1 B</text>
|
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<text x="524.0" y="200.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">retest</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="376" fill="#555">Aceeași lună A. De data asta luna B atinge R1 (53.10) și merge spre R2.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<p>Aceeași lună A, deci aceleași niveluri. De data asta:</p>
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li>În a 5-a zi luna B <strong>închide la 53.40, peste R1 B (53.10)</strong>. Range-ul
|
||
s-a rupt în sus.</li>
|
||
<li>Retest: codița coboară la <strong>53.10</strong>, exact pe R1, close-ul rămâne peste.</li>
|
||
<li>Candela din dreapta închide la <strong>53.90</strong>, peste high-ul retestului →
|
||
<strong>intrare 53.90</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>SL 52.90</strong>, sub codița retestului. Sub R1, breakout-ul a eșuat și ești
|
||
înapoi în range.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>TP = R2 B 56.00 = 2.1R</strong> (risc 1.00). Pe drum trece de <strong>54.00</strong>, R1-ul
|
||
lunii trecute: prima țintă intermediară.</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
<p>„Proiecție neutră" (03.09: „nu e o proiecție bull, nu e o proiecție bear")
|
||
nu e definită în sesiuni. În curs, cel mai apropiat e <strong>bull neutru</strong>:
|
||
pivot mai sus, dar R2 mai jos decât R2-ul lunii trecute
|
||
(<a href="../03_MODUL_2/02_zone_cerere_oferta_support_resistance.html">Modul 2</a>).
|
||
Geometric, e aceeași situație ca pivoții divergenți de mai sus, deci
|
||
probabil se tratează la fel, ca range — deducția mea, el nu o spune.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="5-proiectie-inside-compresie">5. Proiecție „inside" = compresie</h2>
|
||
<p>Regula (10.09): dacă distanța suport–rezistență din luna curentă e mult
|
||
mai mică decât luna trecută, proiecția anunță <strong>compresie</strong>, nu
|
||
expansiune.</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„e proiectie bull inside, pentru că dacă unui resistance-ul din luna
|
||
asta nu e foarte expandat față de suport."</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<h3 id="cum-arata-compresia">Cum arată compresia</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:inside_nu-->
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 830 438" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, pivot monthly</text>
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<line x1="96.5" y1="80.0" x2="411.5" y2="80.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="90.5" y="84.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">R1 A 55.00</text>
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<line x1="96.5" y1="190.0" x2="411.5" y2="190.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="90.5" y="194.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">pivot A 50.00</text>
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<line x1="96.5" y1="300.0" x2="411.5" y2="300.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="90.5" y="304.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">S1 A 45.00</text>
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<line x1="411.5" y1="146.4" x2="726.5" y2="146.4" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="732.5" y="150.4" fill="#1a5fb4">R1 B 51.98</text>
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<line x1="411.5" y1="199.2" x2="726.5" y2="199.2" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="732.5" y="203.2" fill="#c00">S1 B 49.58</text>
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<line x1="104.0" y1="171.3" x2="104.0" y2="191.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="176.8" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="160.3" x2="119.0" y2="182.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="165.8" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="151.5" x2="134.0" y2="171.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="157.0" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="149.0" y1="151.5" x2="149.0" y2="173.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="157.0" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="162.5" x2="164.0" y2="186.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="168.0" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="179.0" y1="175.7" x2="179.0" y2="197.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="181.2" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="194.0" y1="186.7" x2="194.0" y2="204.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="189.5" y="192.2" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="209.0" y1="182.3" x2="209.0" y2="204.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="204.5" y="187.8" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="224.0" y1="169.1" x2="224.0" y2="193.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="219.5" y="174.6" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="239.0" y1="158.1" x2="239.0" y2="180.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="234.5" y="163.6" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="254.0" y1="153.7" x2="254.0" y2="169.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="249.5" y="159.2" width="9" height="4.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="269.0" y1="153.7" x2="269.0" y2="175.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="284.0" y1="164.7" x2="284.0" y2="188.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="299.0" y1="177.9" x2="299.0" y2="199.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="314.0" y1="180.1" x2="314.0" y2="199.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="309.5" y="185.6" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="329.0" y1="166.9" x2="329.0" y2="191.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="324.5" y="172.4" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="344.0" y1="158.1" x2="344.0" y2="177.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="339.5" y="163.6" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="359.0" y1="158.1" x2="359.0" y2="180.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="354.5" y="163.6" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="374.0" y1="169.1" x2="374.0" y2="188.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="369.5" y="174.6" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="389.0" y1="171.3" x2="389.0" y2="188.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="404.0" y1="164.7" x2="404.0" y2="182.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="419.0" y1="165.8" x2="419.0" y2="183.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="434.0" y1="163.6" x2="434.0" y2="183.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="429.5" y="168.0" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="449.0" y1="152.6" x2="449.0" y2="172.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="444.5" y="157.0" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="464.0" y1="152.6" x2="464.0" y2="168.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="459.5" y="157.0" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="479.0" y1="159.2" x2="479.0" y2="181.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="474.5" y="163.6" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="494.0" y1="172.4" x2="494.0" y2="190.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="489.5" y="176.8" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="509.0" y1="174.6" x2="509.0" y2="190.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="504.5" y="179.0" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="524.0" y1="165.8" x2="524.0" y2="183.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="519.5" y="170.2" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="539.0" y1="157.0" x2="539.0" y2="174.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="534.5" y="161.4" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="554.0" y1="157.0" x2="554.0" y2="172.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="549.5" y="161.4" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="569.0" y1="163.6" x2="569.0" y2="181.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="564.5" y="168.0" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="584.0" y1="172.4" x2="584.0" y2="185.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="579.5" y="176.8" width="9" height="4.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="599.0" y1="170.2" x2="599.0" y2="185.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="594.5" y="174.6" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="614.0" y1="161.4" x2="614.0" y2="179.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="609.5" y="165.8" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="629.0" y1="161.4" x2="629.0" y2="174.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="624.5" y="165.8" width="9" height="4.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="644.0" y1="165.8" x2="644.0" y2="181.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="639.5" y="170.2" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="659.0" y1="172.4" x2="659.0" y2="183.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="654.5" y="176.8" width="9" height="2.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="674.0" y1="168.0" x2="674.0" y2="183.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="669.5" y="172.4" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="689.0" y1="163.6" x2="689.0" y2="176.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="684.5" y="168.0" width="9" height="4.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="704.0" y1="163.6" x2="704.0" y2="176.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="699.5" y="168.0" width="9" height="4.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="719.0" y1="168.0" x2="719.0" y2="179.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="714.5" y="172.4" width="9" height="2.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="24" y1="396.0" x2="816" y2="396.0" stroke="#888"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="326.0" width="9" height="70.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="331.4" width="9" height="64.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="328.7" width="9" height="67.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="334.1" width="9" height="61.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="336.8" width="9" height="59.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="332.7" width="9" height="63.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="189.5" y="335.4" width="9" height="60.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="219.5" y="336.8" width="9" height="59.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="234.5" y="338.1" width="9" height="57.9" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="249.5" y="342.2" width="9" height="53.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="264.5" y="339.5" width="9" height="56.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="279.5" y="340.8" width="9" height="55.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="654.5" y="365.0" width="9" height="31.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="669.5" y="363.7" width="9" height="32.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="684.5" y="366.4" width="9" height="29.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="699.5" y="365.0" width="9" height="31.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="714.5" y="366.4" width="9" height="29.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<text x="24" y="320.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
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<text x="254.0" y="119.7" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">luna A: range îngust</text>
|
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<text x="569.0" y="231.2" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">luna B: compresie</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="426" fill="#555">R1 − S1 = H − L al lunii trecute: 2.40 față de 10.00. Proiecție inside, volum în scădere.</text>
|
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</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Luna A avea S1–R1 între <strong>45.00 și 55.00</strong>: 10 puncte.</li>
|
||
<li>Luna A însă a stat îngust: high <strong>51.75</strong>, low <strong>49.35</strong>, close <strong>50.90</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>De aici luna B: pivot <strong>50.67</strong>, R1 <strong>51.98</strong>, S1 <strong>49.58</strong>. R1 − S1 =
|
||
<strong>2.40</strong>, adică 24% din range-ul lunii trecute.</li>
|
||
<li>Luna B stă toată între S1 și R1, cu volum în scădere. Un stop de 1-2
|
||
puncte e deja în afara lunii; o țintă de 5 puncte n-are unde să vină.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h3 id="nu-obligatoriu-breakout-cu-volum-spre-rezistenta-lunii-trecute">Nu obligatoriu: breakout cu volum spre rezistența lunii trecute</h3>
|
||
<p>Nuanța din 04.09:</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„prevede o posibilă compresie, nu înseamnă că va fi neapărat compresia,
|
||
ar putea să atingă resistance-ul din luna trecută în luna asta și să ia
|
||
viteză."</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
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<!--SVG:inside_da-->
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 951 449" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, pivot monthly</text>
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<line x1="726.5" y1="150.4" x2="731.5" y2="146.9" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1"/>
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<line x1="96.5" y1="201.0" x2="411.5" y2="201.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="90.5" y="205.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">pivot A 50.00</text>
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<text x="90.5" y="315.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">S1 A 45.00</text>
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<text x="732.5" y="164.9" fill="#6a3d9a">R1 B 51.98</text>
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<text x="732.5" y="214.2" fill="#c00">S1 B 49.58</text>
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<text x="732.5" y="181.9" fill="#c00">SL 51.05</text>
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<line x1="96.5" y1="150.4" x2="726.5" y2="150.4" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="732.5" y="150.9" fill="#188a3e">intrare 52.30</text>
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<line x1="96.5" y1="91.0" x2="726.5" y2="91.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="732.5" y="95.0" fill="#1a5fb4">TP = R1 lunii trecute 55.00 = 2.2R</text>
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<rect x="99.5" y="187.8" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="171.3" x2="119.0" y2="193.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="176.8" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="162.5" x2="134.0" y2="182.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="168.0" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="149.0" y1="162.5" x2="149.0" y2="184.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="168.0" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="173.5" x2="164.0" y2="197.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="179.0" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="179.0" y1="186.7" x2="179.0" y2="208.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="194.0" y1="197.7" x2="194.0" y2="215.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="534.5" y="386.5" width="9" height="20.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="549.5" y="387.2" width="9" height="19.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="564.5" y="384.2" width="9" height="22.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
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<rect x="579.5" y="337.0" width="9" height="70.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="594.5" y="353.7" width="9" height="53.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="609.5" y="358.3" width="9" height="48.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="624.5" y="370.5" width="9" height="36.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="639.5" y="361.3" width="9" height="45.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="654.5" y="362.9" width="9" height="44.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="669.5" y="373.5" width="9" height="33.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="684.5" y="365.2" width="9" height="41.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="699.5" y="363.6" width="9" height="43.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="714.5" y="372.8" width="9" height="34.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
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<text x="24" y="331.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
<text x="584.0" y="108.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">breakout cu volum</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="437" fill="#555">Aceeași compresie; volumul de 3x pe breakout o scoate până la rezistența lunii trecute.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li>Aceeași compresie în primele 11 zile; ultimele trei low-uri stau toate
|
||
la <strong>51.15</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>În a 12-a zi, închidere la <strong>52.30, peste R1 B (51.98)</strong>, cu volum
|
||
<strong>92</strong> față de o medie de <strong>30</strong> în compresie. Fără volumul acesta,
|
||
închiderea peste R1 poate fi doar codița de sus a range-ului. Pe 04.09,
|
||
la un wedge „deja într-o formă de breakout", el ar vrea „să văd și
|
||
volumul mai tare", dar breakout-ul masiv îl leagă de reintrarea în
|
||
MBT-10: „posibil dacă reintră în MBT-10 să vedem un breakout masiv".</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Intrare 52.30</strong>, <strong>SL 51.05</strong> (sub ultimul higher low al compresiei).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>TP 55.00 = R1-ul lunii trecute = 2.2R</strong> (risc 1.25). Atins în a 19-a
|
||
zi a lunii.</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="6-reject-pe-pivot-de-care-parte-inchide-conteaza">6. Reject pe pivot: de care parte închide contează</h2>
|
||
<p>Codița spune unde a ajuns prețul; close-ul spune cine a câștigat. Aceeași
|
||
atingere a pivotului e semnal opus după cum închide bara.</p>
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>Reject — DA (long)</th>
|
||
<th>Reject — NU (nu intri long)</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>codițe sub pivot, close-uri deasupra: pivotul e apărat</td>
|
||
<td>codițe peste pivot, close-uri sub: pivotul e rezistență</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>„Îmi place foarte tare rejectul pe pivotul de an, cu un doji și un hammer" (29.07)</td>
|
||
<td>„suntem într-un sell doji, nu-mi place asta și rejectul ăsta de aici, nu-mi place" (03.09)</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>intri pe trigger (buy doji, MBT-10), stop sub codițe</td>
|
||
<td>aștepți un nivel mai jos: suportul quarterly, S1, locul crimei</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>respins de mai multe ori sub pivot, apoi <strong>close-uri deasupra</strong> = continuare</td>
|
||
<td>sell doji + reject pe pivotul quarterly bate și un fundamental bun (03.09)</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
<h3 id="da-reject-deasupra-pivotului">DA: reject deasupra pivotului</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:reject_deasupra-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 830 292" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — weekly, pivot quarterly</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="223.0" x2="501.5" y2="223.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="507.5" y="226.6" fill="#b06000">pivot quarterly 50.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="236.2" x2="501.5" y2="236.2" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="507.5" y="240.6" fill="#c00">SL 49.40</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="187.8" x2="501.5" y2="187.8" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="507.5" y="191.8" fill="#188a3e">intrare 51.60</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="91.0" x2="501.5" y2="91.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="507.5" y="95.0" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 56.00 = 2R</text>
|
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<line x1="44.0" y1="80.0" x2="44.0" y2="102.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||
<rect x="39.5" y="86.6" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="59.0" y1="88.8" x2="59.0" y2="115.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="54.5" y="95.4" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="74.0" y1="95.4" x2="74.0" y2="115.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="69.5" y="102.0" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="89.0" y1="95.4" x2="89.0" y2="126.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="84.5" y="102.0" width="9" height="17.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="104.0" y1="113.0" x2="104.0" y2="139.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="119.6" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="119.6" x2="119.0" y2="139.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="126.2" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="119.6" x2="134.0" y2="150.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="126.2" width="9" height="17.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="149.0" y1="137.2" x2="149.0" y2="163.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="143.8" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="146.0" x2="164.0" y2="163.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="152.6" width="9" height="4.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="179.0" y1="146.0" x2="179.0" y2="176.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="152.6" width="9" height="17.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="194.0" y1="163.6" x2="194.0" y2="190.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="189.5" y="170.2" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="209.0" y1="176.8" x2="209.0" y2="205.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<line x1="224.0" y1="194.4" x2="224.0" y2="227.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<line x1="239.0" y1="207.6" x2="239.0" y2="229.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="234.5" y="212.0" width="9" height="4.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="254.0" y1="203.2" x2="254.0" y2="234.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="249.5" y="207.6" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="269.0" y1="203.2" x2="269.0" y2="225.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="264.5" y="207.6" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="284.0" y1="205.4" x2="284.0" y2="227.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="279.5" y="209.8" width="9" height="4.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="299.0" y1="197.7" x2="299.0" y2="220.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="294.5" y="208.7" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="314.0" y1="183.4" x2="314.0" y2="213.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="309.5" y="187.8" width="9" height="20.9" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="329.0" y1="165.8" x2="329.0" y2="194.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="324.5" y="172.4" width="9" height="15.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="344.0" y1="165.8" x2="344.0" y2="185.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="339.5" y="172.4" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="359.0" y1="154.8" x2="359.0" y2="185.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="354.5" y="161.4" width="9" height="17.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="374.0" y1="139.4" x2="374.0" y2="168.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="369.5" y="146.0" width="9" height="15.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="389.0" y1="139.4" x2="389.0" y2="159.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="384.5" y="146.0" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="404.0" y1="128.4" x2="404.0" y2="159.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="399.5" y="135.0" width="9" height="17.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="419.0" y1="115.2" x2="419.0" y2="141.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="414.5" y="121.8" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="434.0" y1="115.2" x2="434.0" y2="135.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="429.5" y="121.8" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="449.0" y1="106.4" x2="449.0" y2="135.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="444.5" y="113.0" width="9" height="15.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="464.0" y1="93.2" x2="464.0" y2="119.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="459.5" y="99.8" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="479.0" y1="93.2" x2="479.0" y2="113.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="474.5" y="99.8" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="494.0" y1="84.4" x2="494.0" y2="113.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="489.5" y="91.0" width="9" height="15.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<text x="104.0" y="167.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">pullback</text>
|
||
<text x="254.0" y="177.2" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">5 rejecturi</text>
|
||
<text x="314.0" y="169.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
|
||
<text x="494.0" y="74.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="280" fill="#555">Codițele coboară sub pivot, close-urile rămân deasupra: pivotul e apărat.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Pullback weekly din 56 spre <strong>pivotul quarterly 50.00</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>Cinci săptămâni la rând codița coboară sub pivot (<strong>49.80, 49.70, 49.50,
|
||
49.90, 49.80</strong>) și close-ul revine deasupra. Vânzătorii ajung sub nivel,
|
||
dar nu pot rămâne acolo: la fiecare coborâre sub 50 apar cumpărători.</li>
|
||
<li>Doji, apoi <strong>buy doji la 51.60</strong> → intrare.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>SL 49.40</strong>, sub cea mai joasă codiță (49.50). Sub ea, pivotul nu mai e
|
||
apărat.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>TP 56.00 = 2R</strong> (risc 2.20), atins după 12 săptămâni.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Uitați-vă cum a ținut suportul ca la carte. Săptămână de săptămână."
|
||
(04.09)</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<h3 id="nu-reject-sub-pivot-deci-cumperi-mai-jos">NU: reject sub pivot, deci cumperi mai jos</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:reject_sub-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 830 373" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
|
||
<line x1="501.5" y1="217.8" x2="506.5" y2="213.4" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="501.5" y1="223.0" x2="506.5" y2="227.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="87.8" x2="501.5" y2="87.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="507.5" y="91.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 53.00 = 3R</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="113.8" x2="501.5" y2="113.8" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="507.5" y="117.8" fill="#b06000">pivot monthly 52.00 = TP1 (2.2R)</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="189.2" x2="501.5" y2="189.2" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="507.5" y="193.2" fill="#188a3e">intrare 49.10</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="217.8" x2="501.5" y2="217.8" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="507.5" y="217.4" fill="#6a3d9a">pivot quarterly 48.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="223.0" x2="501.5" y2="223.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="507.5" y="231.4" fill="#c00">SL 47.80</text>
|
||
<line x1="44.0" y1="173.6" x2="44.0" y2="199.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="181.4" width="9" height="10.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="59.0" y1="160.6" x2="59.0" y2="189.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="168.4" width="9" height="13.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="74.0" y1="142.4" x2="74.0" y2="176.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="69.5" y="150.2" width="9" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="89.0" y1="126.8" x2="89.0" y2="158.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="84.5" y="134.6" width="9" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="104.0" y1="113.8" x2="104.0" y2="142.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="121.6" width="9" height="13.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="119.0" y1="106.0" x2="119.0" y2="132.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="121.6" width="9" height="5.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="134.0" y1="106.0" x2="134.0" y2="132.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="119.0" width="9" height="7.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="149.0" y1="100.8" x2="149.0" y2="134.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="119.0" width="9" height="10.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="164.0" y1="111.2" x2="164.0" y2="134.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="124.2" width="9" height="5.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="179.0" y1="116.4" x2="179.0" y2="150.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="174.5" y="124.2" width="9" height="18.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="194.0" y1="134.6" x2="194.0" y2="165.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="189.5" y="142.4" width="9" height="15.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="209.0" y1="142.4" x2="209.0" y2="165.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="204.5" y="150.2" width="9" height="7.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="224.0" y1="142.4" x2="224.0" y2="178.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="219.5" y="150.2" width="9" height="20.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="239.0" y1="163.2" x2="239.0" y2="194.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="234.5" y="171.0" width="9" height="15.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="254.0" y1="171.0" x2="254.0" y2="194.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
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<rect x="459.5" y="281.0" width="9" height="50.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="489.5" y="282.0" width="9" height="49.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<text x="24" y="255.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
<text x="134.0" y="80.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">reject sub pivot: NU</text>
|
||
<text x="284.0" y="237.8" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer</text>
|
||
<text x="314.0" y="168.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="361" fill="#555">Nu cumperi rejectul de sub pivotul monthly. Cumperi mai jos, în pivotul quarterly.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li>Prețul urcă la <strong>pivotul monthly 52.00</strong>. Patru zile codița trece de el
|
||
(<strong>52.30, 52.30, 52.50, 52.10</strong>) și close-ul rămâne dedesubt. Nu
|
||
cumperi aici: pivotul a fost rezistență de patru ori.</li>
|
||
<li>Prețul coboară până la <strong>pivotul quarterly 48.00</strong>. Hammer cu low-ul
|
||
<strong>48.00</strong> exact pe nivel, cu cel mai mare volum de la cădere încoace.</li>
|
||
<li>Doji, apoi <strong>buy doji la 49.10</strong> → intrare.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>SL 47.80</strong>, sub hammer: sub pivotul quarterly nu mai ai suport.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>TP1 = pivotul monthly 52.00 = 2.2R</strong> (risc 1.30): exact nivelul care
|
||
te-a respins. <strong>TP2 53.00 = 3R</strong>, după ce pivotul monthly e trecut.</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
<p>Regula vine din 19.08, 20.08 și 24.08 („reject sub pivotul quarterly,
|
||
astea poate un nivel de preț un pic mai jos și să-l cumpărăm de acolo"),
|
||
iar varianta cu suportul quarterly e spusă direct pe 28.07:</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Daca ajungem in suportul quarterly, de cumparat cu doua maini"</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<h3 id="da-respins-de-cinci-ori-apoi-inchide-deasupra">DA: respins de cinci ori, apoi închide deasupra</h3>
|
||
<p>Cazul din 04.09: pivotul a fost rezistență de mai multe ori, apoi cedează.</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Momentan, rejectează pivotul quarterly, o dată de 2, de 3, de 4, de 5
|
||
ori, ne închidem deasupra pivotului cu un doji și de aici am putea să
|
||
avem o continuare superbă de trend"</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<!--SVG:reject_apoi_peste-->
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 830 364" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — weekly, pivot quarterly</text>
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<line x1="516.5" y1="202.4" x2="521.5" y2="198.4" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1"/>
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<line x1="516.5" y1="208.4" x2="521.5" y2="212.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
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<line x1="36.5" y1="202.4" x2="516.5" y2="202.4" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="522.5" y="202.4" fill="#b06000">pivot quarterly 50.00</text>
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<text x="522.5" y="216.4" fill="#c00">SL 49.75</text>
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<line x1="36.5" y1="173.6" x2="516.5" y2="173.6" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="522.5" y="177.6" fill="#188a3e">intrare 51.20</text>
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<line x1="36.5" y1="104.0" x2="516.5" y2="104.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="522.5" y="108.0" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 54.10 = 2R</text>
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<rect x="39.5" y="260.0" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="59.0" y1="262.4" x2="59.0" y2="291.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="54.5" y="269.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="69.5" y="276.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="89.0" y1="269.6" x2="89.0" y2="300.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="84.5" y="276.8" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="104.0" y1="286.4" x2="104.0" y2="315.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="293.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="293.6" x2="119.0" y2="315.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="300.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="293.6" x2="134.0" y2="322.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="300.8" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="149.0" y1="296.0" x2="149.0" y2="322.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="303.2" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="284.0" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="284.0" y1="192.8" x2="284.0" y2="221.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="299.0" y1="200.0" x2="299.0" y2="219.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="294.5" y="207.2" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="314.0" y1="189.2" x2="314.0" y2="221.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="309.5" y="194.0" width="9" height="20.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="344.0" y1="168.8" x2="344.0" y2="197.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="339.5" y="173.6" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="374.0" y1="154.4" x2="374.0" y2="185.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="384.5" y="147.2" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="404.0" y1="140.0" x2="404.0" y2="161.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="399.5" y="147.2" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="419.0" y1="128.0" x2="419.0" y2="161.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="414.5" y="135.2" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="434.0" y1="113.6" x2="434.0" y2="142.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="429.5" y="120.8" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="449.0" y1="113.6" x2="449.0" y2="135.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="444.5" y="120.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="464.0" y1="101.6" x2="464.0" y2="135.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="459.5" y="108.8" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="479.0" y1="89.6" x2="479.0" y2="116.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="474.5" y="96.8" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="494.0" y1="89.6" x2="494.0" y2="111.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="489.5" y="96.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="509.0" y1="80.0" x2="509.0" y2="111.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="504.5" y="87.2" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<text x="77.0" y="249.6" fill="#777" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">downtrend</text>
|
||
<text x="224.0" y="147.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">5 rejecturi sub pivot</text>
|
||
<text x="344.0" y="154.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji + buy doji</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="352" fill="#555">Cinci respingeri, apoi două close-uri peste pivot și buy doji: acum pivotul e suport.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Downtrend, apoi revenire spre <strong>pivotul quarterly 50.00</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>Cinci săptămâni cu codiță peste 50 și close sub. Fiecare respingere
|
||
consumă din oferta de la nivel.</li>
|
||
<li>Săptămâna 19 închide la <strong>50.35</strong>, peste pivot; a 20-a e un <strong>doji la
|
||
50.40</strong>, tot peste. Oferta s-a terminat.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Buy doji la 51.20</strong> → intrare. <strong>SL 49.75</strong>, sub doji și sub pivot:
|
||
dacă prețul revine sub 50, close-urile de deasupra au fost false.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>TP 54.10 = 2R</strong> (risc 1.45), atins după 8 săptămâni.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="7-scarita-pe-pivoti">7. Scărița pe pivoți</h2>
|
||
<p>Regula (10.09): trendul se citește pe swing-uri (higher highs / higher
|
||
lows) <strong>și</strong> pe pivoți. Pivotul perioadei curente mai sus decât cel
|
||
anterior e structură bull.</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Chiar dacă proiectia este bear, dar mă refer la pivot. Pivotul ăsta
|
||
mantri mai sus decât pivotul anterior."</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p>În sesiune el separă „proiecția" de „pivot", deși în definiția din curs
|
||
proiecția bull înseamnă tocmai pivot curent peste pivot anterior. Cel mai
|
||
probabil proiecția bear era citită pe alt timeframe decât pivotul monthly;
|
||
din transcriere nu se poate stabili.</p>
|
||
<h3 id="da-pivoti-in-trepte-higher-lows-deasupra-lor">DA: pivoți în trepte, higher lows deasupra lor</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:scarita_da-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 830 324" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — weekly, pivot quarterly</text>
|
||
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<line x1="486.5" y1="52.0" x2="486.5" y2="281.6" stroke="#bbb" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
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<line x1="96.5" y1="281.6" x2="291.5" y2="281.6" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="90.5" y="285.6" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">pivot Q1 44.00</text>
|
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<line x1="291.5" y1="212.0" x2="486.5" y2="212.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="294.5" y="226.0" fill="#b06000">pivot Q2 47.87</text>
|
||
<line x1="486.5" y1="167.6" x2="681.5" y2="167.6" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
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<text x="687.5" y="171.6" fill="#b06000">pivot Q3 50.33</text>
|
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<text x="687.5" y="141.1" fill="#777">SMA-20</text>
|
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<line x1="104.0" y1="240.2" x2="104.0" y2="258.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="245.6" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="247.4" x2="119.0" y2="265.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="252.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="243.8" x2="134.0" y2="265.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="249.2" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="149.0" y1="231.2" x2="149.0" y2="254.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="236.6" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="218.6" x2="164.0" y2="242.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="224.0" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="179.0" y1="204.2" x2="179.0" y2="229.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="209.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="194.0" y1="193.4" x2="194.0" y2="215.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="189.5" y="198.8" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="209.0" y1="193.4" x2="209.0" y2="211.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="204.5" y="198.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="224.0" y1="200.6" x2="224.0" y2="222.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="219.5" y="206.0" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="584.0" y1="121.4" x2="584.0" y2="144.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="579.5" y="126.8" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="599.0" y1="108.8" x2="599.0" y2="132.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="594.5" y="114.2" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="614.0" y1="108.8" x2="614.0" y2="125.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="609.5" y="114.2" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="629.0" y1="99.8" x2="629.0" y2="125.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="624.5" y="105.2" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="644.0" y1="89.0" x2="644.0" y2="110.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="639.5" y="94.4" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="659.0" y1="89.0" x2="659.0" y2="105.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="654.5" y="94.4" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="674.0" y1="80.0" x2="674.0" y2="105.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="669.5" y="85.4" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<text x="119.0" y="235.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">low</text>
|
||
<text x="314.0" y="179.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">HL</text>
|
||
<text x="434.0" y="149.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">HL</text>
|
||
<text x="509.0" y="141.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">HL</text>
|
||
<text x="389.0" y="131.2" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">vârf Q2</text>
|
||
<text x="554.0" y="112.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">breakout</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="312" fill="#555">Treaptă cu treaptă: pivotul fiecărui trimestru mai sus, fiecare higher low deasupra lui.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>Trimestru</th>
|
||
<th>H / L / C al trimestrului</th>
|
||
<th>Pivotul trimestrului următor</th>
|
||
<th>Low în trimestru</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>Q1</td>
|
||
<td>49.70 / 44.90 / 49.00</td>
|
||
<td>Q2: <strong>47.87</strong></td>
|
||
<td>44.90</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>Q2</td>
|
||
<td>51.80 / 48.10 / 51.10</td>
|
||
<td>Q3: <strong>50.33</strong></td>
|
||
<td>48.10, apoi HL <strong>49.70</strong></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>Q3</td>
|
||
<td>—</td>
|
||
<td>—</td>
|
||
<td>HL <strong>50.40</strong>, deasupra pivotului 50.33</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Pivotul urcă <strong>44.00 → 47.87 → 50.33</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>Swing low-urile urcă <strong>44.90 → 48.10 → 49.70 → 50.40</strong>, și fiecare e
|
||
deasupra pivotului trimestrului în care s-a format.</li>
|
||
<li>Vârful Q2 e <strong>51.80</strong>; închiderea la <strong>52.30</strong> îl sparge → scărița a
|
||
urcat încă o treaptă. Asta e confirmarea: fără breakout peste vârf, ai
|
||
doar un double bottom cu al doilea picior mai sus.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<p>Pe 17.08, același lucru pe un simbol real: „ai intrat în buy doji weekly
|
||
și uitați-vă, inclusiv succesiunea pivoților quarterly, higher highs,
|
||
higher lows".</p>
|
||
<h3 id="nu-pivotul-a-urcat-dar-pretul-nu-mai-urca">NU: pivotul a urcat, dar prețul nu mai urcă</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:scarita_nu-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 830 262" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — weekly, pivot quarterly</text>
|
||
<line x1="291.5" y1="52.0" x2="291.5" y2="220.4" stroke="#bbb" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
|
||
<line x1="486.5" y1="52.0" x2="486.5" y2="220.4" stroke="#bbb" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
|
||
<line x1="681.5" y1="106.4" x2="686.5" y2="110.2" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="681.5" y1="117.8" x2="686.5" y2="124.2" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="681.5" y1="106.4" x2="686.5" y2="96.2" stroke="#777" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="220.4" x2="291.5" y2="220.4" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="90.5" y="224.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">pivot Q1 44.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="291.5" y1="150.8" x2="486.5" y2="150.8" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="294.5" y="164.8" fill="#b06000">pivot Q2 47.87</text>
|
||
<line x1="486.5" y1="106.4" x2="681.5" y2="106.4" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="687.5" y="114.2" fill="#b06000">pivot Q3 50.33</text>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="80.0" x2="681.5" y2="80.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="687.5" y="84.0" fill="#1a5fb4">vârf Q2 51.80</text>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="117.8" x2="681.5" y2="117.8" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="687.5" y="128.2" fill="#c00">HL din Q2 49.70</text>
|
||
<text x="687.5" y="100.2" fill="#777">SMA-20</text>
|
||
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|
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<line x1="119.0" y1="186.2" x2="119.0" y2="204.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="114.5" y="191.6" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="134.0" y1="182.6" x2="134.0" y2="204.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="129.5" y="188.0" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<rect x="144.5" y="175.4" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="157.4" x2="164.0" y2="180.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="162.8" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="254.0" y1="128.6" x2="254.0" y2="155.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="249.5" y="134.0" width="9" height="16.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="269.0" y1="117.8" x2="269.0" y2="139.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<line x1="284.0" y1="117.8" x2="284.0" y2="135.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<text x="539.0" y="67.8" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">fără breakout</text>
|
||
<text x="599.0" y="149.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">lower low</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="250" fill="#555">Pivotul Q3 a urcat, dar prețul nu face vârf nou și închide sub HL-ul din Q2: scărița s-a rupt.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<p>Aceleași Q1 și Q2, deci același pivot Q3 <strong>50.33</strong>. În Q3:</p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>vârful ajunge doar la <strong>51.70</strong>, sub vârful Q2 (51.80): breakout-ul nu
|
||
vine;</li>
|
||
<li>prețul închide la <strong>50.10</strong>, sub pivotul Q3, apoi la <strong>49.60</strong>, sub HL-ul
|
||
din Q2 (49.70) → <strong>lower low</strong>.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<p>Pivotul Q3 a fost calculat din trimestrul bun de dinainte, deci încă arată
|
||
„scăriță". Prețul spune altceva, și prețul are ultimul cuvânt: pivotul
|
||
următor, calculat din acest Q3, va ieși mai jos.</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Poate nu doboar swing low-ul ăsta, deci pentru că s-ar strica
|
||
structura trend-ului" (21.08)</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="8-pivotul-in-combinatiile-sistemului">8. Pivotul în combinațiile sistemului</h2>
|
||
<p>Pivotul nu apare aproape niciodată singur. Combinațiile din sesiuni:</p>
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>Combinația</th>
|
||
<th>Rolul pivotului</th>
|
||
<th>Sesiunea</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>sfântul buy doji</strong>: double bottom + buy doji</td>
|
||
<td>close deasupra pivotului monthly, în proiecție bull</td>
|
||
<td>04.09, vezi <a href="01_buy_doji_si_strategia_mici.html">#1</a></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>strategia MICI</strong>: buy doji weekly + higher low</td>
|
||
<td>higher low-ul <strong>deasupra</strong> pivotului</td>
|
||
<td>10.09, vezi <a href="01_buy_doji_si_strategia_mici.html">#1</a></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>breakout la pivotul monthly</strong> pe indici</td>
|
||
<td>valid doar cu McClellan peste linia de zero; altfel bear flag</td>
|
||
<td>10.09</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>cup & handle</strong></td>
|
||
<td>breakout din mâner deasupra pivotului monthly, în proiecție bull</td>
|
||
<td>03.09</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>1/2 gap = previous high</strong></td>
|
||
<td>continuarea cere trendline rupt + close deasupra pivotului</td>
|
||
<td>03.09</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>reintrare după primul target</strong></td>
|
||
<td>căderea înapoi poate fi retestul locului crimei / suportului de an = higher low; reject sub pivotul de an cu stochastic spre oversold: „asta îmi place"</td>
|
||
<td>25.08; locul crimei: <a href="03_locul_crimei_si_pullback.html">#3</a></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>pullback în confluență</strong></td>
|
||
<td>S1/S2 în proiecție bull + locul crimei + MBT-10; intri unde se suprapun mai multe niveluri</td>
|
||
<td>18.08, 21.08</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>locul crimei + pivot quarterly / de an</strong></td>
|
||
<td>nivelul „ținut ca la carte" = cineva apără prețul</td>
|
||
<td>17.08, 04.09</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>cădere sub pivotul de an</strong></td>
|
||
<td>cu stochastic overbought = semnal contra</td>
|
||
<td>02.09</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„suntem într-un sell doji, nu-mi place asta și rejectul ăsta de aici, nu-mi
|
||
place." (03.09, simbol cu 12/14 pe fundamental)</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="9-pivot-2-ce-nu-e-clar">9. „Pivot + 2": ce nu e clar</h2>
|
||
<p>Expresia apare o singură dată, pe 10.09:</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Higher low și ne închidem. Pentru că suntem în zona pivotului plus 2.
|
||
Deja ne închidem [...] deasupra pivotului. Este foarte mare șanse să ia
|
||
viteză."</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p>Două citiri posibile, niciuna confirmată: <strong>+2% în ziua respectivă</strong> (el
|
||
spune des „plus 2 în premarket", de ex. 27.07) sau <strong>zona dintre pivot și
|
||
R2</strong>. Nu am desenat-o ca regulă separată. Partea sigură din frază, higher
|
||
low + close deasupra pivotului, e cea din secțiunile 6 și 7 și din
|
||
strategia MICI.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="gotchas">Gotchas</h2>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>Proiecția nu e trigger.</strong> Proiecție bull și preț în cădere se văd des.
|
||
Intri pe buy doji / MBT-10 la nivel, nu pe culoarea proiecției.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Nu cumpăra rejectul de sub pivot.</strong> Diagrama din secțiunea 6: patru
|
||
codițe peste 52.00, patru close-uri sub. Intrarea bună a venit 4 puncte
|
||
mai jos, la pivotul quarterly.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Inside înseamnă ținte mici.</strong> Cu R1 − S1 = 2.40, o țintă de 5 puncte
|
||
cere breakout cu volum (în exemplu, 92 față de o medie de 30). Fără
|
||
volum, nu te baza pe el.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Pivotul nou se calculează din perioada veche.</strong> Un pivot Q3 care urcă
|
||
nu salvează un trimestru în care prețul face lower low (scărița NU).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Codița nu e close.</strong> Un reject se judecă la închiderea barei:
|
||
weekly-ul vineri, monthly-ul în ultima zi a lunii. Până atunci e doar
|
||
„în formare".</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="surse">Surse</h2>
|
||
<p>Din analiza zilnică (recoltele din <code>harvest/</code>):</p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>17.08.2026</strong> — pivotul quarterly și cel de an ținute „ca la carte";
|
||
succesiunea pivoților quarterly HH/HL; scannerul de pullback (buy la
|
||
pivot monthly / quarterly).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>18.08.2026</strong> — retest locul crimei + S1/S2 în proiecție bull + MBT-10.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>19.08, 20.08, 24.08.2026</strong> — reject sub pivotul quarterly → cumperi mai
|
||
jos; stochastic oversold ca atenuare.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>21.08.2026</strong> — intrarea pe pullback unde coincid S2, suportul monthly
|
||
și alte niveluri; nu strica swing low-ul.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>25.08.2026</strong> — reintrare după primul target: retest suport de an,
|
||
reject sub pivotul de an cu stochastic spre oversold, „asta îmi place"
|
||
(recolta dă aici „prețul rămâne sub pivotul de an" ca trigger NU;
|
||
transcrierea spune invers).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>02.09.2026</strong> — revenirea peste pivot; căderea sub pivotul de an cu
|
||
stochastic overbought.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>03.09.2026</strong> — pivoți divergenți = trading range; proiecție neutră;
|
||
sell doji + reject pe pivotul quarterly; cup & handle peste pivotul
|
||
monthly; close deasupra pivotului după 1/2 gap.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>04.09.2026</strong> — sfântul buy doji; inside nu obligatoriu compresie;
|
||
suportul ținut săptămână de săptămână; rejectat de 5 ori, apoi close
|
||
peste pivotul quarterly (citat din transcriere).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>10.09.2026</strong> — breakout la pivotul monthly cu McClellan; buy doji
|
||
deasupra pivotului în proiecție bull; proiecție bull inside; scărița pe
|
||
pivoți; „pivotul plus 2" (citat din transcriere).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>29.07.2026</strong> — „Îmi place foarte tare rejectul pe pivotul de an / cu un
|
||
doji și un hammer" (transcriere, nu e în recolte).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>28.07.2026</strong> — „în suportul quarterly, de cumpărat cu două mâini"
|
||
(transcriere, nu e în recolte).</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<p>Din curs: <a href="../03_MODUL_2/02_zone_cerere_oferta_support_resistance.html">Modul 2: Zone de cerere/ofertă prin floor pivots</a>
|
||
(formula, proiecția bull/bear, bull neutru),
|
||
<a href="../03_MODUL_2/03_timeframes_set_up.html">Modul 2: Timeframes</a> (ce pivot
|
||
pe ce grafic), Q&A <a href="../09_QA/15_2025-10-14.html">14.10.2025</a> (proiecția nu
|
||
e semnal). Referință externă:
|
||
<a href="https://chartschool.stockcharts.com/table-of-contents/technical-indicators-and-overlays/technical-overlays/pivot-points">StockCharts ChartSchool — Pivot Points</a>.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<p><em>Ce e completare a mea: toate prețurile și diagramele sunt construite (în
|
||
transcrieri cifrele nu se văd). Intrările, stop-urile, țintele și
|
||
calculul R din fiecare exemplu sunt aplicarea mea a regulilor, nu cifre
|
||
spuse de el. Tot ale mele: explicația de ce pivoții divergenți apar (R1 −
|
||
S1 = High − Low al lunii trecute), legătura dintre „proiecție neutră" și
|
||
„bull neutru" din curs și ideea că proiecția neutră se tratează ca range, citirea contradicției „proiecție bear / pivot mai
|
||
sus" de pe 10.09, cele două interpretări posibile ale lui „pivot + 2",
|
||
mecanismul cu ordinele strânse la un nivel calculat, gotchas-urile despre
|
||
codiță vs close și despre pivotul calculat din perioada veche. Regulile
|
||
(proiecție bull/bear, inside, divergenți, reject sub/deasupra, scărița,
|
||
combinațiile din tabelul de la secțiunea 8) și citatele vin din sesiuni
|
||
și din curs.</em></p><nav class="pager"><a class="prev" href="03_locul_crimei_si_pullback.html">← 03. #3 — Locul crimei și disciplina pullback-ului</a><a class="up" href="../index.html#08_ANALIZA_ZILNICA">↑ index</a><a class="next" href="05_volum.html">05. #5 — Volumul: țeavă, acumulare, divergență →</a></nav>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html>
|