f647874a52
Garda: `Level(p, text, color, "left")` punea tacut "left" in `dash` in loc de `label_at`, iar SVG-ul iesea fara linie punctata si fara nicio eroare - trei agenti au pierdut timp pe asta pe 13.09. Acum `__post_init__` crapa cu mesaj care spune ce argument voiai. Verificat pe cazurile valide si pe cele doua gresite. PChart: era copiat in cinci generatoare, iar copiile divergisera - toate cinci aveau hash-uri diferite si patru pastrau `spread()` cel vechi. Nucleul comun trece in gen/pchart.py; 385 de linii sterse, 11 adaugate. az_executie.py isi pastreaza PChart-ul: varianta lui calculeaza mediile dintr-un istoric dinainte de bara 0 si si le deseneaza singura. Unirea celor doua comportamente ca sa scap de un fisier ar fi riscat cele 10 diagrame de acolo, pentru zero castig. Ia doar `spread` reparat. Reparatia schimba 4 documente, deci PROGRESS gresea cand spunea ca nicio diagrama comisa nu sufera de bug: 08 si 10 se misca cu 0,2 px, dar 07 si 09 aveau etichete la 6 px de linia lor. Verificat cu ochii pe 3 diagrame randate - etichetele stau acum pe linia lor, cu liniuta de legatura unde a trebuit mutata. audit_diagrams: 0 probleme. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ThN7ixZrowca8aTGrK1MUJ
1605 lines
109 KiB
HTML
1605 lines
109 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
|
||
<html lang="ro">
|
||
<head>
|
||
<meta charset="utf-8">
|
||
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
|
||
<title>Analiză zilnică / #9 — Earnings și opțiuni</title>
|
||
<style>
|
||
body { max-width: 720px; margin: 0 auto; padding: 16px 20px 60px;
|
||
font: 18px/1.55 -apple-system, Segoe UI, Roboto, sans-serif;
|
||
color: #1a1a1a; }
|
||
h1 { font-size: 1.4em; }
|
||
h2 { font-size: 1.15em; margin-top: 1.6em; border-top: 1px solid #ddd; padding-top: .8em; }
|
||
code { font-size: .95em; background: #f0f0f0; padding: .1em .3em; border-radius: 3px; }
|
||
a { color: #1a5fb4; }
|
||
hr { border: none; border-top: 1px solid #ddd; margin: 2em 0; }
|
||
em { color: #555; }
|
||
nav { font-size: .8em; color: #888; line-height: 1.5; }
|
||
nav a { color: #777; text-decoration: none; }
|
||
nav a:hover { text-decoration: underline; }
|
||
.crumbs { padding-bottom: .5em; border-bottom: 1px solid #eee; }
|
||
.crumbs .sep { margin: 0 .35em; color: #bbb; }
|
||
.pager { margin-top: 3em; padding-top: 1em; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;
|
||
display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; gap: .6em 1em; justify-content: space-between; }
|
||
.pager a { overflow-wrap: anywhere; }
|
||
.pager .next { text-align: right; margin-left: auto; }
|
||
</style>
|
||
</head>
|
||
<body>
|
||
<nav class="crumbs"><a href="../index.html">Sumarizări</a><span class="sep">/</span><a href="../index.html#08_ANALIZA_ZILNICA">Analiză zilnică</a><span class="sep">/</span>#9 — Earnings și opțiuni</nav><h1 id="analiza-zilnica-9-earnings-si-optiuni">Analiză zilnică / #9 — Earnings și opțiuni</h1>
|
||
<h2 id="tldr">TLDR</h2>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>Setup tehnic bun + earnings în zilele următoare = gamble trade.</strong> Nu îl
|
||
joci direcțional. Rezultatul nu îl știe nimeni, iar gap-ul de după raport
|
||
sare peste stop: în exemplul de mai jos, un stop de 1R se execută la −2R.</li>
|
||
<li>Dacă totuși vrei expunere, <strong>butterfly sau condor</strong>, și numai dacă ai un
|
||
edge. Un edge folosit de el: <strong>raportul call/put de 3-4x</strong> în lanțul de
|
||
opțiuni ca bias spre upside.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Volatilitate implicită foarte mare → nu cumperi call simplu.</strong> Plătești
|
||
o primă umflată care se dezumflă după raport. Butterfly-ul costă puțin și
|
||
are riscul limitat.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Gap-up de earnings:</strong> nu cumperi după ce „s-a dus". Aștepți retestul în
|
||
gap sau la <strong>jumătatea gap-ului</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Cădere pe rezultate bune:</strong> nu cumperi căderea. Aștepți retestul swing
|
||
low-ului anterior și un pattern de bottom.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Cădere înainte de earnings, apoi explozie</strong> — pattern pe care îl vede des
|
||
(Nvidia), dar <strong>„nu înseamnă neapărat că se va întâmpla așa sută la sută"</strong>.
|
||
Contează numai dacă simbolul l-a repetat la raportările trecute.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="de-ce-urmaresti-calendarul-de-earnings">De ce urmărești calendarul de earnings</h2>
|
||
<p>Analiza tehnică presupune că prețul se mișcă din ordine care se adună treptat:
|
||
stop-uri, intrări la niveluri, instituționali care cumpără în tranșe. La
|
||
raportare, peste noapte, toată lumea își reevaluează compania în același timp.
|
||
Piața se deschide direct la prețul nou, fără tranzacții la prețurile dintre.
|
||
De aici vin cele trei probleme:</p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>stop-ul nu te protejează</strong>: un stop e un ordin care devine ordin la piață
|
||
când prețul îl atinge; dacă prima tranzacție a zilei e cu 10% mai jos, acolo
|
||
se execută;</li>
|
||
<li><strong>setup-ul nu mai contează</strong>: double bottom-ul, buy hammer-ul și MBT-10 au
|
||
fost citite pe o companie care, după raport, poate fi alta;</li>
|
||
<li><strong>opțiunile sunt scumpe</strong>: vânzătorii de opțiuni știu că vine mișcarea și
|
||
o includ în preț (volatilitatea implicită, IV).</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<p>Ce decizie te ajută să iei:</p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>înainte de intrare</strong>: verifici data raportului. Earnings în zilele
|
||
următoare → nu intri direcțional (10.09, Oracle; 24.08, un FVG monthly bun
|
||
pe un simbol care raporta a doua zi);</li>
|
||
<li><strong>ora raportului</strong>: pre-market sau after-close în aceeași zi schimbă riscul
|
||
(21.08). Pre-market: gap-ul apare la open-ul aceleiași zile. After-close:
|
||
ziua de tranzacționare trece normal, iar gap-ul vine a doua zi;</li>
|
||
<li><strong>după raport</strong>: gap-ul devine un nivel de lucru — țintă de pullback (gap
|
||
up) sau țintă de umplut (gap down).</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="termenii-o-singura-data">Termenii, o singură dată</h2>
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>Termen</th>
|
||
<th>Ce înseamnă aici</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>earnings</strong></td>
|
||
<td>raportul trimestrial de rezultate al companiei</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>gamble trade</strong></td>
|
||
<td>tranzacție al cărei rezultat depinde de un eveniment (earnings), nu de edge-ul tehnic</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>gap</strong></td>
|
||
<td>spațiu fără tranzacții între două bare: low-ul barei de azi peste high-ul de ieri (gap up) sau high-ul de azi sub low-ul de ieri (gap down)</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>jumătate de gap (1/2 gap)</strong></td>
|
||
<td>mijlocul dintre marginea de jos și cea de sus a gap-ului</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>call / put</strong></td>
|
||
<td>opțiune care câștigă dacă prețul urcă (call) sau scade (put) peste/sub un preț fixat, <strong>strike</strong></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>raport call/put</strong></td>
|
||
<td>câte call-uri față de câte put-uri sunt în lanțul de opțiuni; 3-4x = bias spre upside</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>volatilitate implicită (IV)</strong></td>
|
||
<td>mișcarea pe care o „plătește" prețul opțiunilor; înainte de earnings crește, după raport cade brusc</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>butterfly</strong></td>
|
||
<td>structură pe trei strike-uri: câștig maxim dacă prețul ajunge exact la strike-ul din mijloc (corp), pierdere = prima plătită</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>condor</strong></td>
|
||
<td>structură pe patru strike-uri: câștig dacă prețul rămâne într-un interval, pierdere limitată dacă iese</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>peak bottom</strong></td>
|
||
<td>cum numește el pattern-ul de bottom căutat la retest (double bottom, inverted H&S)</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>swing low</strong></td>
|
||
<td>minimul unei corecții, confirmat de candelele din dreapta lui</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="1-gamble-trade-acelasi-setup-inainte-si-dupa-raport">1. Gamble trade: același setup, înainte și după raport</h2>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„ăsta este un gamble trade pentru că nu se știe cum va fi la earnings.
|
||
[…] probabil un butterfly dacă face sen și vedem un edge în tranzacție."</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p>Exemplul din sesiune (10.09): Oracle, cu double bottom, buy hammer și MBT-10.
|
||
Un setup de manual, dar raporta pe 10.09. Mai jos, aceeași situație pe o
|
||
serie construită.</p>
|
||
<h3 id="nu-intri-inainte-de-raport">NU: intri înainte de raport</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:gamble_nu-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 701 451" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="135.2" x2="501.5" y2="135.2" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="507.5" y="139.2" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 56.60 = 2R (neatins)</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="250.4" x2="501.5" y2="250.4" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="507.5" y="254.4" fill="#188a3e">intrare 51.80</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="308.0" x2="501.5" y2="308.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="507.5" y="312.0" fill="#c00">SL 49.40</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="365.6" x2="501.5" y2="365.6" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="507.5" y="369.6" fill="#6a3d9a">executat la open 47.00 = −2.0R</text>
|
||
<line x1="44.0" y1="80.0" x2="44.0" y2="108.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="87.2" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="59.0" y1="94.4" x2="59.0" y2="128.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="101.6" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="74.0" y1="104.0" x2="74.0" y2="128.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="69.5" y="111.2" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="89.0" y1="104.0" x2="89.0" y2="144.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="84.5" y="111.2" width="9" height="26.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="104.0" y1="130.4" x2="104.0" y2="166.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="137.6" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="119.0" y1="142.4" x2="119.0" y2="166.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="149.6" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="134.0" y1="142.4" x2="134.0" y2="183.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="149.6" width="9" height="26.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="149.0" y1="168.8" x2="149.0" y2="204.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="176.0" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="164.0" y1="180.8" x2="164.0" y2="204.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="188.0" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="179.0" y1="180.8" x2="179.0" y2="224.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="174.5" y="188.0" width="9" height="28.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="194.0" y1="209.6" x2="194.0" y2="245.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="189.5" y="216.8" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="209.0" y1="221.6" x2="209.0" y2="245.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="204.5" y="228.8" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="224.0" y1="221.6" x2="224.0" y2="264.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="219.5" y="228.8" width="9" height="28.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="239.0" y1="250.4" x2="239.0" y2="291.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="234.5" y="257.6" width="9" height="26.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="254.0" y1="276.8" x2="254.0" y2="305.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="249.5" y="284.0" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="269.0" y1="264.8" x2="269.0" y2="305.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="264.5" y="272.0" width="9" height="26.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="284.0" y1="248.0" x2="284.0" y2="279.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="255.2" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="299.0" y1="248.0" x2="299.0" y2="272.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="255.2" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="314.0" y1="257.6" x2="314.0" y2="288.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="264.8" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="329.0" y1="274.4" x2="329.0" y2="304.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="276.8" width="9" height="4.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="344.0" y1="245.6" x2="344.0" y2="281.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="339.5" y="250.4" width="9" height="26.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="359.0" y1="233.6" x2="359.0" y2="257.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="354.5" y="240.8" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="374.0" y1="233.6" x2="374.0" y2="252.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="369.5" y="240.8" width="9" height="4.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="389.0" y1="358.4" x2="389.0" y2="387.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="384.5" y="365.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="404.0" y1="360.8" x2="404.0" y2="387.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="399.5" y="368.0" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="419.0" y1="360.8" x2="419.0" y2="394.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="414.5" y="368.0" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="434.0" y1="380.0" x2="434.0" y2="408.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="429.5" y="387.2" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="449.0" y1="377.6" x2="449.0" y2="408.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="444.5" y="384.8" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="464.0" y1="363.2" x2="464.0" y2="392.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="459.5" y="370.4" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="479.0" y1="363.2" x2="479.0" y2="389.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="474.5" y="370.4" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="494.0" y1="375.2" x2="494.0" y2="399.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="489.5" y="382.4" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<text x="134.0" y="126.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">downtrend</text>
|
||
<text x="254.0" y="327.6" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">picior 1</text>
|
||
<text x="329.0" y="326.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer</text>
|
||
<text x="344.0" y="231.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy hammer</text>
|
||
<text x="374.0" y="201.6" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">raport</text>
|
||
<text x="389.0" y="411.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">gap -9.6%</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="439" fill="#555">Setup bun, dar raportul vine peste 2 zile. Gap-ul sare peste stop: pierzi 2R, nu 1R.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Downtrend, apoi <strong>double bottom</strong>: picior 1 la <strong>49.50</strong>, picior 2 la
|
||
<strong>49.55</strong> cu hammer.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Buy hammer</strong> la close <strong>51.80</strong> → intrare. <strong>SL 49.40</strong>, sub double
|
||
bottom (risc 2.40). <strong>TP 56.60 = 2R</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>Două zile mai târziu vine raportul, after close. Close-ul zilei de raport:
|
||
<strong>52.00</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>A doua zi deschide la <strong>47.00: gap −9.6%</strong>. Stop-ul de la 49.40 nu se
|
||
execută la 49.40, ci la primul preț existent, <strong>47.00</strong>. Pierdere: 4.80 pe
|
||
acțiune = <strong>−2.0R</strong>, dublul riscului planificat.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<p>Setup-ul nu a fost greșit. Riscul nu mai era cel calculat.</p>
|
||
<h3 id="da-astepti-raportul-apoi-joci-ce-se-formeaza-dupa">DA: aștepți raportul, apoi joci ce se formează după</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:gamble_da-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 884 451" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="252.8" x2="696.5" y2="252.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="702.5" y="256.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 51.70 = gap umplut = 3.1R</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="368.0" x2="696.5" y2="368.0" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="702.5" y="372.0" fill="#188a3e">intrare 46.90</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="405.2" x2="696.5" y2="405.2" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="702.5" y="409.2" fill="#c00">SL 45.35</text>
|
||
<line x1="44.0" y1="80.0" x2="44.0" y2="108.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="87.2" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="59.0" y1="94.4" x2="59.0" y2="128.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="101.6" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="74.0" y1="104.0" x2="74.0" y2="128.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="69.5" y="111.2" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="89.0" y1="104.0" x2="89.0" y2="144.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="84.5" y="111.2" width="9" height="26.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="104.0" y1="130.4" x2="104.0" y2="166.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="137.6" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="119.0" y1="142.4" x2="119.0" y2="166.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="149.6" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="134.0" y1="142.4" x2="134.0" y2="183.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="149.6" width="9" height="26.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="149.0" y1="168.8" x2="149.0" y2="204.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="176.0" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="164.0" y1="180.8" x2="164.0" y2="204.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="188.0" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="179.0" y1="180.8" x2="179.0" y2="224.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="174.5" y="188.0" width="9" height="28.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="194.0" y1="209.6" x2="194.0" y2="245.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="189.5" y="216.8" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="209.0" y1="221.6" x2="209.0" y2="245.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="204.5" y="228.8" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="224.0" y1="221.6" x2="224.0" y2="264.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="219.5" y="228.8" width="9" height="28.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="239.0" y1="250.4" x2="239.0" y2="291.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="234.5" y="257.6" width="9" height="26.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="254.0" y1="276.8" x2="254.0" y2="305.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="249.5" y="284.0" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="269.0" y1="264.8" x2="269.0" y2="305.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="264.5" y="272.0" width="9" height="26.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="284.0" y1="248.0" x2="284.0" y2="279.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="255.2" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="299.0" y1="248.0" x2="299.0" y2="272.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="255.2" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="314.0" y1="257.6" x2="314.0" y2="288.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="264.8" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="329.0" y1="274.4" x2="329.0" y2="304.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="276.8" width="9" height="4.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="344.0" y1="245.6" x2="344.0" y2="281.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="339.5" y="250.4" width="9" height="26.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="359.0" y1="233.6" x2="359.0" y2="257.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="354.5" y="240.8" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="374.0" y1="233.6" x2="374.0" y2="252.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="369.5" y="240.8" width="9" height="4.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="389.0" y1="358.4" x2="389.0" y2="387.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="384.5" y="365.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="404.0" y1="360.8" x2="404.0" y2="387.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="399.5" y="368.0" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="419.0" y1="360.8" x2="419.0" y2="394.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="414.5" y="368.0" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="434.0" y1="380.0" x2="434.0" y2="408.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="429.5" y="387.2" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="449.0" y1="377.6" x2="449.0" y2="408.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="444.5" y="384.8" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="464.0" y1="363.2" x2="464.0" y2="392.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="459.5" y="370.4" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="479.0" y1="363.2" x2="479.0" y2="389.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="474.5" y="370.4" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="494.0" y1="375.2" x2="494.0" y2="399.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="489.5" y="382.4" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="509.0" y1="381.2" x2="509.0" y2="402.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="504.5" y="390.8" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="524.0" y1="363.2" x2="524.0" y2="395.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="519.5" y="368.0" width="9" height="22.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="539.0" y1="348.8" x2="539.0" y2="375.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="534.5" y="356.0" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="554.0" y1="332.0" x2="554.0" y2="363.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="549.5" y="339.2" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="569.0" y1="332.0" x2="569.0" y2="353.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="564.5" y="339.2" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="584.0" y1="320.0" x2="584.0" y2="353.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="579.5" y="327.2" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="599.0" y1="303.2" x2="599.0" y2="334.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="594.5" y="310.4" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="614.0" y1="303.2" x2="614.0" y2="324.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="609.5" y="310.4" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="629.0" y1="291.2" x2="629.0" y2="324.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="624.5" y="298.4" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="644.0" y1="274.4" x2="644.0" y2="305.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="639.5" y="281.6" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="659.0" y1="274.4" x2="659.0" y2="296.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="654.5" y="281.6" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="674.0" y1="262.4" x2="674.0" y2="296.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="669.5" y="269.6" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="689.0" y1="243.2" x2="689.0" y2="276.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="684.5" y="250.4" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<text x="374.0" y="219.6" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">raport</text>
|
||
<text x="389.0" y="344.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">gap</text>
|
||
<text x="434.0" y="422.8" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">low</text>
|
||
<text x="509.0" y="422.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">higher low</text>
|
||
<text x="524.0" y="349.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
|
||
<text x="689.0" y="233.2" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="439" fill="#555">Același simbol. Aștepți raportul, apoi joci setup-ul format după el, cu stop care nu mai sare.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>După gap, prețul coboară până la <strong>45.20</strong>, apoi face un <strong>higher low la
|
||
45.45</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>Doji, apoi <strong>buy doji la 46.90</strong> → intrare. <strong>SL 45.35</strong>, sub higher low
|
||
(risc 1.55).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>TP 51.70 = gap-ul umplut</strong> (low-ul zilei de raport): <strong>3.1R</strong>, atins după
|
||
11 zile.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<p>Aici stop-ul chiar e 1R: nu mai există un eveniment programat care să-l
|
||
sară. Gap-ul de deasupra, care în diagrama NU era pierderea, devine
|
||
<strong>ținta</strong> (recolta din 02.09: gap-ul de deasupra, cu buy hammer din suport, e
|
||
țintă).</p>
|
||
<h3 id="daca-il-joci-oricum-fractiunea-de-pozitie">Dacă îl joci oricum: fracțiunea de poziție</h3>
|
||
<p>Ideea lui e să nu îl joci direcțional. Dacă cineva vrea totuși acțiuni
|
||
înainte de raport, stop-ul nu mai poate stabili mărimea poziției: o face
|
||
<strong>mișcarea maximă la raportările trecute</strong>. În exemplu, dacă cel mai mare
|
||
gap istoric al simbolului e −12%:</p>
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th></th>
|
||
<th>Poziție întreagă</th>
|
||
<th>Poziție redusă</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>risc planificat (până la SL 49.40)</td>
|
||
<td>2.40 / acțiune = 1R</td>
|
||
<td>0.40 × 2.40 = 0.4R</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>pierdere la un gap de −12% de la 52.00 (open 45.76)</td>
|
||
<td>6.04 / acțiune = <strong>2.5R</strong></td>
|
||
<td>0.40 × 6.04 = <strong>1.0R</strong></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
<p>La <strong>40% din poziție</strong>, cel mai rău gap cunoscut te costă cât un stop normal.
|
||
Nu te protejează de un gap mai mare decât cel istoric. De aceea, pentru el,
|
||
varianta cu risc limitat e opțiunea (butterfly), nu acțiunea.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="2-gap-up-de-earnings-tinta-e-pullback-ul-in-gap">2. Gap-up de earnings: ținta e pullback-ul în gap</h2>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„eventual poate testează intera în GEP sau jumătate de GEP."</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p>Exemplul din sesiune (10.09): Microsoft, gap-up la earnings — „de asta nu
|
||
m-aș arunca Microsoft acum".</p>
|
||
<p>De ce gap-ul atrage prețul înapoi: cine a vrut acțiunea înainte de raport a
|
||
cumpărat-o sub gap. Cine o vrea după raport și a ratat open-ul nu vrea să
|
||
plătească vârful, așa că pune ordine mai jos, în zona gap-ului. Când prețul
|
||
coboară acolo, găsește acei cumpărători. Dacă îi găsește, gap-ul e apărat și
|
||
ai un nivel concret pentru stop: sub zona apărată.</p>
|
||
<h3 id="da-retest-la-jumatatea-gap-ului">DA: retest la jumătatea gap-ului</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:gap_pullback_da-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 761 484" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
|
||
<line x1="666.5" y1="193.4" x2="671.5" y2="188.2" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="666.5" y1="197.0" x2="671.5" y2="202.2" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="666.5" y1="236.6" x2="671.5" y2="233.2" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="666.5" y1="243.8" x2="671.5" y2="247.2" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="92.6" x2="666.5" y2="92.6" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="672.5" y="96.6" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 72.50 = 2R</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="193.4" x2="666.5" y2="193.4" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="672.5" y="192.2" fill="#188a3e">intrare 66.90</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="197.0" x2="666.5" y2="197.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="672.5" y="206.2" fill="#b06000">sus gap 66.70</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="236.6" x2="666.5" y2="236.6" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="672.5" y="237.2" fill="#b06000">1/2 gap 64.50</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="243.8" x2="666.5" y2="243.8" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="672.5" y="251.2" fill="#c00">SL 64.10</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="276.2" x2="666.5" y2="276.2" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="672.5" y="280.2" fill="#b06000">jos gap 62.30</text>
|
||
<line x1="44.0" y1="330.2" x2="44.0" y2="346.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="335.6" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="59.0" y1="323.0" x2="59.0" y2="341.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="328.4" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="74.0" y1="323.0" x2="74.0" y2="339.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="69.5" y="328.4" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="89.0" y1="315.8" x2="89.0" y2="339.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="84.5" y="321.2" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="104.0" y1="306.8" x2="104.0" y2="326.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="312.2" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="119.0" y1="306.8" x2="119.0" y2="323.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="312.2" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="134.0" y1="301.4" x2="134.0" y2="323.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="306.8" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="149.0" y1="292.4" x2="149.0" y2="312.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="297.8" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="164.0" y1="292.4" x2="164.0" y2="310.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="297.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="179.0" y1="290.6" x2="179.0" y2="310.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="174.5" y="296.0" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="194.0" y1="283.4" x2="194.0" y2="301.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="189.5" y="288.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="209.0" y1="283.4" x2="209.0" y2="301.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="204.5" y="288.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="224.0" y1="290.6" x2="224.0" y2="306.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="219.5" y="296.0" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="239.0" y1="285.2" x2="239.0" y2="306.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="234.5" y="290.6" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="254.0" y1="278.0" x2="254.0" y2="296.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="249.5" y="283.4" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="269.0" y1="278.0" x2="269.0" y2="294.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="264.5" y="283.4" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="284.0" y1="274.4" x2="284.0" y2="294.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="279.8" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="299.0" y1="274.4" x2="299.0" y2="290.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="279.8" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="314.0" y1="276.2" x2="314.0" y2="290.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="281.6" width="9" height="3.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="329.0" y1="164.6" x2="329.0" y2="197.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="170.0" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="344.0" y1="150.2" x2="344.0" y2="175.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="339.5" y="155.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="359.0" y1="135.8" x2="359.0" y2="161.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="354.5" y="141.2" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="374.0" y1="135.8" x2="374.0" y2="155.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="369.5" y="141.2" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="389.0" y1="125.0" x2="389.0" y2="155.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="384.5" y="130.4" width="9" height="19.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="404.0" y1="125.0" x2="404.0" y2="157.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="399.5" y="130.4" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="419.0" y1="146.6" x2="419.0" y2="179.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="414.5" y="152.0" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="434.0" y1="168.2" x2="434.0" y2="195.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="429.5" y="173.6" width="9" height="16.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="449.0" y1="184.4" x2="449.0" y2="215.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="444.5" y="189.8" width="9" height="19.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="464.0" y1="204.2" x2="464.0" y2="229.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="459.5" y="209.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="479.0" y1="215.0" x2="479.0" y2="240.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="474.5" y="216.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="494.0" y1="189.8" x2="494.0" y2="220.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="489.5" y="193.4" width="9" height="23.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="509.0" y1="177.2" x2="509.0" y2="198.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="504.5" y="182.6" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="524.0" y1="161.0" x2="524.0" y2="188.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="519.5" y="166.4" width="9" height="16.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="539.0" y1="148.4" x2="539.0" y2="171.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="534.5" y="153.8" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="554.0" y1="148.4" x2="554.0" y2="166.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="549.5" y="153.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="569.0" y1="134.0" x2="569.0" y2="166.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="564.5" y="139.4" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="584.0" y1="117.8" x2="584.0" y2="144.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="579.5" y="123.2" width="9" height="16.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="599.0" y1="117.8" x2="599.0" y2="134.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="594.5" y="123.2" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="614.0" y1="103.4" x2="614.0" y2="134.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="609.5" y="108.8" width="9" height="19.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="629.0" y1="90.8" x2="629.0" y2="114.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="624.5" y="96.2" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="644.0" y1="90.8" x2="644.0" y2="107.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="639.5" y="96.2" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="659.0" y1="80.0" x2="659.0" y2="107.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="654.5" y="85.4" width="9" height="16.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="442.4" x2="747" y2="442.4" stroke="#888"/>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="423.7" width="9" height="18.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="424.7" width="9" height="17.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="69.5" y="422.8" width="9" height="19.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="84.5" y="421.9" width="9" height="20.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="423.3" width="9" height="19.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="424.2" width="9" height="18.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="422.3" width="9" height="20.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="421.4" width="9" height="21.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="423.7" width="9" height="18.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="174.5" y="422.8" width="9" height="19.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="189.5" y="421.9" width="9" height="20.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="204.5" y="424.2" width="9" height="18.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="219.5" y="425.1" width="9" height="17.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="234.5" y="423.3" width="9" height="19.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="249.5" y="422.3" width="9" height="20.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="264.5" y="423.7" width="9" height="18.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="421.4" width="9" height="21.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="422.8" width="9" height="19.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="420.0" width="9" height="22.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="372.4" width="9" height="70.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="339.5" y="398.1" width="9" height="44.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="354.5" y="401.3" width="9" height="41.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="369.5" y="409.7" width="9" height="32.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="384.5" y="406.9" width="9" height="35.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="399.5" y="418.1" width="9" height="24.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="414.5" y="420.5" width="9" height="21.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="429.5" y="423.3" width="9" height="19.1" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="444.5" y="424.7" width="9" height="17.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="459.5" y="426.5" width="9" height="15.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="474.5" y="421.9" width="9" height="20.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="489.5" y="408.8" width="9" height="33.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="504.5" y="416.7" width="9" height="25.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="519.5" y="415.3" width="9" height="27.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="534.5" y="419.1" width="9" height="23.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="549.5" y="420.9" width="9" height="21.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="564.5" y="415.8" width="9" height="26.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="579.5" y="414.4" width="9" height="28.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="594.5" y="420.0" width="9" height="22.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="609.5" y="416.7" width="9" height="25.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="624.5" y="418.1" width="9" height="24.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="639.5" y="421.4" width="9" height="21.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="654.5" y="419.1" width="9" height="23.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<text x="24" y="366.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
<text x="314.0" y="262.2" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">raport</text>
|
||
<text x="329.0" y="120.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">gap +8.1%</text>
|
||
<text x="479.0" y="262.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer în gap</text>
|
||
<text x="629.0" y="80.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="472" fill="#555">Nu cumperi gap-ul. Aștepți ca prețul să revină în el și să arate că e apărat.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Raport after close, close <strong>62.00</strong>. A doua zi open <strong>67.00: gap +8.1%</strong>,
|
||
cu cel mai mare volum din serie. Gap-ul: între <strong>62.30</strong> (high-ul zilei de
|
||
raport) și <strong>66.70</strong> (low-ul zilei de gap). Jumătatea: <strong>64.50</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>Prețul urcă până la <strong>70.70</strong>, apoi face pullback 5 zile, <strong>cu volum în
|
||
scădere</strong>: vânzările sunt luări de profit, nu distribuție.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Hammer în gap</strong>: low <strong>64.30</strong>, sub jumătatea gap-ului, dar departe de
|
||
marginea de jos (62.30). Gap-ul nu e umplut.</li>
|
||
<li>Trigger: close <strong>66.90</strong>, peste high-ul hammer-ului → intrare. <strong>SL 64.10</strong>,
|
||
sub hammer: dacă prețul trece sub el, jumătatea gap-ului nu mai e apărată.
|
||
Risc 2.80.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>TP 72.50 = 2R</strong>, peste vârful de după gap (70.70). Atins după 9 zile.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h3 id="nu-cumperi-dupa-ce-s-a-dus">NU: cumperi după ce „s-a dus"</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:gap_pullback_nu-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 827 439" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="85.4" x2="546.5" y2="85.4" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="552.5" y="89.4" fill="#6a3d9a">intrare 70.40 (după ce s-a dus)</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="117.8" x2="546.5" y2="117.8" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="552.5" y="121.8" fill="#c00">SL 68.60: atins la a doua bară după intrare</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="152.0" x2="546.5" y2="152.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="552.5" y="156.0" fill="#b06000">sus gap 66.70</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="191.6" x2="546.5" y2="191.6" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="552.5" y="195.6" fill="#b06000">1/2 gap 64.50</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="231.2" x2="546.5" y2="231.2" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="552.5" y="235.2" fill="#b06000">jos gap 62.30</text>
|
||
<line x1="44.0" y1="285.2" x2="44.0" y2="301.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="290.6" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="59.0" y1="278.0" x2="59.0" y2="296.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="283.4" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="74.0" y1="278.0" x2="74.0" y2="294.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="69.5" y="283.4" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="89.0" y1="270.8" x2="89.0" y2="294.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="84.5" y="276.2" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="104.0" y1="261.8" x2="104.0" y2="281.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="267.2" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="119.0" y1="261.8" x2="119.0" y2="278.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="267.2" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="134.0" y1="256.4" x2="134.0" y2="278.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="261.8" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="149.0" y1="247.4" x2="149.0" y2="267.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="252.8" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="164.0" y1="247.4" x2="164.0" y2="265.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="252.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="179.0" y1="245.6" x2="179.0" y2="265.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="174.5" y="251.0" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="194.0" y1="238.4" x2="194.0" y2="256.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="189.5" y="243.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="209.0" y1="238.4" x2="209.0" y2="256.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="204.5" y="243.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="224.0" y1="245.6" x2="224.0" y2="261.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="219.5" y="251.0" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="239.0" y1="240.2" x2="239.0" y2="261.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="234.5" y="245.6" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="254.0" y1="233.0" x2="254.0" y2="251.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="249.5" y="238.4" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="269.0" y1="233.0" x2="269.0" y2="249.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="264.5" y="238.4" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="284.0" y1="229.4" x2="284.0" y2="249.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="234.8" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="299.0" y1="229.4" x2="299.0" y2="245.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="234.8" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="314.0" y1="231.2" x2="314.0" y2="245.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="236.6" width="9" height="3.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="329.0" y1="119.6" x2="329.0" y2="152.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="125.0" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="344.0" y1="105.2" x2="344.0" y2="130.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="339.5" y="110.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="359.0" y1="90.8" x2="359.0" y2="116.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="354.5" y="96.2" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="374.0" y1="90.8" x2="374.0" y2="110.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="369.5" y="96.2" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="389.0" y1="80.0" x2="389.0" y2="110.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="384.5" y="85.4" width="9" height="19.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="404.0" y1="80.0" x2="404.0" y2="112.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="399.5" y="85.4" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="419.0" y1="101.6" x2="419.0" y2="134.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="414.5" y="107.0" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="434.0" y1="123.2" x2="434.0" y2="150.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="429.5" y="128.6" width="9" height="16.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="449.0" y1="139.4" x2="449.0" y2="170.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="444.5" y="144.8" width="9" height="19.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="464.0" y1="159.2" x2="464.0" y2="184.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="459.5" y="164.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="479.0" y1="170.0" x2="479.0" y2="195.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="474.5" y="171.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="494.0" y1="144.8" x2="494.0" y2="175.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="489.5" y="148.4" width="9" height="23.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="509.0" y1="132.2" x2="509.0" y2="153.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="504.5" y="137.6" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="524.0" y1="116.0" x2="524.0" y2="143.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="519.5" y="121.4" width="9" height="16.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="539.0" y1="103.4" x2="539.0" y2="126.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="534.5" y="108.8" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="397.4" x2="813" y2="397.4" stroke="#888"/>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="378.7" width="9" height="18.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="379.7" width="9" height="17.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="69.5" y="377.8" width="9" height="19.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="84.5" y="376.9" width="9" height="20.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="378.3" width="9" height="19.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="379.2" width="9" height="18.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="377.3" width="9" height="20.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="376.4" width="9" height="21.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="378.7" width="9" height="18.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="174.5" y="377.8" width="9" height="19.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="189.5" y="376.9" width="9" height="20.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="204.5" y="379.2" width="9" height="18.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="219.5" y="380.1" width="9" height="17.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="234.5" y="378.3" width="9" height="19.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="249.5" y="377.3" width="9" height="20.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="264.5" y="378.7" width="9" height="18.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="376.4" width="9" height="21.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="377.8" width="9" height="19.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="375.0" width="9" height="22.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="327.4" width="9" height="70.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="339.5" y="353.1" width="9" height="44.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="354.5" y="356.3" width="9" height="41.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="369.5" y="364.7" width="9" height="32.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="384.5" y="361.9" width="9" height="35.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="399.5" y="373.1" width="9" height="24.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="414.5" y="375.5" width="9" height="21.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="429.5" y="378.3" width="9" height="19.1" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="444.5" y="379.7" width="9" height="17.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="459.5" y="381.5" width="9" height="15.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="474.5" y="376.9" width="9" height="20.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="489.5" y="363.8" width="9" height="33.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="504.5" y="371.7" width="9" height="25.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="519.5" y="370.3" width="9" height="27.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="534.5" y="374.1" width="9" height="23.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<text x="24" y="321.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
<text x="329.0" y="174.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">gap +8.1%</text>
|
||
<text x="389.0" y="66.0" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">cumpărat aici</text>
|
||
<text x="479.0" y="217.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">intrarea bună vine aici</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="427" fill="#555">Același gap. Cine cumpără după 4 zile de urcare e scos de pullback-ul normal spre gap.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<p>Același gap. După 4 zile de urcare, cineva cumpără la <strong>70.40</strong> — cu 5.5%
|
||
peste marginea de sus a gap-ului. Stop-ul logic e sub ultimele 3 bare,
|
||
<strong>68.60</strong> (risc 1.80). Ziua de după intrare coboară la 68.90, fără să-l atingă;
|
||
a doua zi după intrare, pullback-ul normal spre gap coboară la 67.70 și îl ia.
|
||
Prețul coboară apoi în gap exact cum era de așteptat, iar intrarea
|
||
bună (hammer-ul, 66.90) vine când el e deja scos.</p>
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>Gap-up — DA</th>
|
||
<th>Gap-up — NU</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>retest în gap sau la 1/2 gap</td>
|
||
<td>preț departe de gap („s-a dus")</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>pullback cu volum în scădere</td>
|
||
<td>pullback cu volum mare: distribuție</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>trigger în gap (hammer, buy doji, MBT-10)</td>
|
||
<td>gap umplut complet, close sub marginea de jos</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="3-cadere-pe-rezultate-bune">3. Cădere pe rezultate bune</h2>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„A căzut la earnings, deși earnings-le arată bine. […] retestăm swing
|
||
low-ul ăsta de aici. Deci căutați un pattern de peak-bottom eventual."</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p>De ce cade o acțiune când rezultatele sunt bune (explicația e a mea):
|
||
prețul de dinainte de raport conține deja așteptarea. Dacă acțiunea a urcat
|
||
în zilele dinainte, cei care au cumpărat pentru raport vând la open, oricât
|
||
de bune ar fi cifrele. La prețul gap-ului nu există destui cumpărători noi
|
||
care să le preia oferta, deci prețul coboară până îi găsește. Cei care au
|
||
cumpărat la open sunt acum în pierdere, iar stop-urile lor, puse sub gap,
|
||
se execută ca ordine de vânzare și împing prețul și mai jos.</p>
|
||
<h3 id="nu-cumperi-gap-ul">NU: cumperi gap-ul</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:rezultate_bune_nu-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 436" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="89.6" x2="441.5" y2="89.6" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="447.5" y="93.6" fill="#6a3d9a">cumpărat la open 58.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="149.6" x2="441.5" y2="149.6" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="447.5" y="153.6" fill="#c00">SL 55.50 (gap umplut)</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="250.4" x2="441.5" y2="250.4" stroke="#777" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="447.5" y="254.4" fill="#777">swing low 51.30</text>
|
||
<line x1="44.0" y1="274.4" x2="44.0" y2="298.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="281.6" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="59.0" y1="255.2" x2="59.0" y2="288.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="262.4" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="74.0" y1="238.4" x2="74.0" y2="269.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="69.5" y="245.6" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="89.0" y1="238.4" x2="89.0" y2="262.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="84.5" y="245.6" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="104.0" y1="226.4" x2="104.0" y2="262.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="233.6" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="119.0" y1="207.2" x2="119.0" y2="240.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="214.4" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="134.0" y1="207.2" x2="134.0" y2="231.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="214.4" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="149.0" y1="195.2" x2="149.0" y2="231.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="202.4" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="164.0" y1="178.4" x2="164.0" y2="209.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="185.6" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="179.0" y1="178.4" x2="179.0" y2="202.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="174.5" y="185.6" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="194.0" y1="188.0" x2="194.0" y2="219.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="189.5" y="195.2" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="209.0" y1="204.8" x2="209.0" y2="236.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="204.5" y="212.0" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="224.0" y1="221.6" x2="224.0" y2="250.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="219.5" y="228.8" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="239.0" y1="216.8" x2="239.0" y2="248.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="234.5" y="224.0" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="254.0" y1="197.6" x2="254.0" y2="231.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="249.5" y="204.8" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="269.0" y1="176.0" x2="269.0" y2="212.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="264.5" y="183.2" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="284.0" y1="159.2" x2="284.0" y2="190.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="166.4" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="299.0" y1="147.2" x2="299.0" y2="173.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="154.4" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="314.0" y1="80.0" x2="314.0" y2="140.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="89.6" width="9" height="43.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="329.0" y1="125.6" x2="329.0" y2="173.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="132.8" width="9" height="33.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="344.0" y1="159.2" x2="344.0" y2="190.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="339.5" y="166.4" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="359.0" y1="176.0" x2="359.0" y2="207.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="354.5" y="183.2" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="374.0" y1="192.8" x2="374.0" y2="226.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="369.5" y="200.0" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="389.0" y1="212.0" x2="389.0" y2="240.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="384.5" y="219.2" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="404.0" y1="228.8" x2="404.0" y2="248.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="399.5" y="233.6" width="9" height="2.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="419.0" y1="214.4" x2="419.0" y2="243.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="414.5" y="221.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="434.0" y1="206.0" x2="434.0" y2="228.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="429.5" y="212.0" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="394.4" x2="606" y2="394.4" stroke="#888"/>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="376.9" width="9" height="17.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="375.1" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="69.5" y="374.3" width="9" height="20.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="84.5" y="377.8" width="9" height="16.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="374.7" width="9" height="19.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="373.8" width="9" height="20.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="377.3" width="9" height="17.1" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="374.3" width="9" height="20.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="373.4" width="9" height="21.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="174.5" y="378.2" width="9" height="16.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="189.5" y="376.0" width="9" height="18.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="204.5" y="375.1" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="219.5" y="374.7" width="9" height="19.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="234.5" y="375.6" width="9" height="18.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="249.5" y="373.4" width="9" height="21.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="264.5" y="371.6" width="9" height="22.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="370.3" width="9" height="24.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="369.0" width="9" height="25.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="324.4" width="9" height="70.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="341.9" width="9" height="52.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="339.5" y="355.0" width="9" height="39.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="354.5" y="359.4" width="9" height="35.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="369.5" y="361.6" width="9" height="32.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="384.5" y="363.8" width="9" height="30.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="399.5" y="357.2" width="9" height="37.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="414.5" y="370.3" width="9" height="24.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="429.5" y="372.5" width="9" height="21.9" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<text x="24" y="318.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
<text x="224.0" y="272.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low</text>
|
||
<text x="314.0" y="66.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">rezultate bune</text>
|
||
<text x="329.0" y="195.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">stop</text>
|
||
<text x="404.0" y="270.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">retest</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="424" fill="#555">Gap +4.9% pe rezultate bune, închis roșu în aceeași zi. A doua zi gap-ul e umplut.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Uptrend cu <strong>swing low la 51.30</strong>, apoi run-up spre raport până la close
|
||
<strong>55.30</strong> (high 55.60).</li>
|
||
<li>Rezultate bune: open <strong>58.00, gap +4.9%</strong>, high 58.40, dar ziua închide la
|
||
<strong>56.20</strong>, sub open. Reversal-ul începe în aceeași zi.</li>
|
||
<li>Cine a cumpărat la open, cu <strong>SL 55.50</strong> sub high-ul de dinainte de raport
|
||
(gap umplut = ideea moartă), e scos <strong>a doua zi</strong>: −1R.</li>
|
||
<li>De la high-ul zilei de raport până la retest, prețul cade <strong>12%</strong>.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h3 id="da-retestul-swing-low-ului-si-bottom-ul">DA: retestul swing low-ului și bottom-ul</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:rezultate_bune_da-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 767 436" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
|
||
<line x1="666.5" y1="200.0" x2="671.5" y2="196.0" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="666.5" y1="206.0" x2="671.5" y2="210.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="92.0" x2="666.5" y2="92.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="672.5" y="96.0" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 57.90 = 2R</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="200.0" x2="666.5" y2="200.0" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="672.5" y="200.0" fill="#188a3e">intrare 53.40</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="206.0" x2="666.5" y2="206.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="672.5" y="214.0" fill="#b06000">neckline 53.15</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="254.0" x2="666.5" y2="254.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="672.5" y="258.0" fill="#c00">SL 51.15</text>
|
||
<line x1="44.0" y1="274.4" x2="44.0" y2="298.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="281.6" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="59.0" y1="255.2" x2="59.0" y2="288.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="262.4" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="74.0" y1="238.4" x2="74.0" y2="269.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="69.5" y="245.6" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="89.0" y1="238.4" x2="89.0" y2="262.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="84.5" y="245.6" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="104.0" y1="226.4" x2="104.0" y2="262.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="233.6" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="119.0" y1="207.2" x2="119.0" y2="240.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="214.4" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="134.0" y1="207.2" x2="134.0" y2="231.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="214.4" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="149.0" y1="195.2" x2="149.0" y2="231.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="202.4" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="164.0" y1="178.4" x2="164.0" y2="209.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="185.6" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="179.0" y1="178.4" x2="179.0" y2="202.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="174.5" y="185.6" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="194.0" y1="188.0" x2="194.0" y2="219.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="189.5" y="195.2" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="209.0" y1="204.8" x2="209.0" y2="236.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="204.5" y="212.0" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="224.0" y1="221.6" x2="224.0" y2="250.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="219.5" y="228.8" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="239.0" y1="216.8" x2="239.0" y2="248.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="234.5" y="224.0" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="254.0" y1="197.6" x2="254.0" y2="231.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="249.5" y="204.8" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="269.0" y1="176.0" x2="269.0" y2="212.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="264.5" y="183.2" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="284.0" y1="159.2" x2="284.0" y2="190.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="166.4" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="299.0" y1="147.2" x2="299.0" y2="173.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="154.4" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="314.0" y1="80.0" x2="314.0" y2="140.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="89.6" width="9" height="43.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="329.0" y1="125.6" x2="329.0" y2="173.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="132.8" width="9" height="33.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="344.0" y1="159.2" x2="344.0" y2="190.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="339.5" y="166.4" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="359.0" y1="176.0" x2="359.0" y2="207.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="354.5" y="183.2" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="374.0" y1="192.8" x2="374.0" y2="226.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="369.5" y="200.0" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="389.0" y1="212.0" x2="389.0" y2="240.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="384.5" y="219.2" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="404.0" y1="228.8" x2="404.0" y2="248.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="399.5" y="233.6" width="9" height="2.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="419.0" y1="214.4" x2="419.0" y2="243.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="414.5" y="221.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="434.0" y1="206.0" x2="434.0" y2="228.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="429.5" y="212.0" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="449.0" y1="204.8" x2="449.0" y2="233.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="444.5" y="212.0" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="464.0" y1="221.6" x2="464.0" y2="248.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="459.5" y="226.4" width="9" height="4.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="479.0" y1="195.2" x2="479.0" y2="236.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="474.5" y="200.0" width="9" height="31.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="494.0" y1="180.8" x2="494.0" y2="207.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="489.5" y="188.0" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="509.0" y1="166.4" x2="509.0" y2="195.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="504.5" y="173.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="524.0" y1="166.4" x2="524.0" y2="188.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="519.5" y="173.6" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="539.0" y1="154.4" x2="539.0" y2="188.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="534.5" y="161.6" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="554.0" y1="140.0" x2="554.0" y2="168.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="549.5" y="147.2" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="569.0" y1="140.0" x2="569.0" y2="161.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="564.5" y="147.2" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="584.0" y1="128.0" x2="584.0" y2="161.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="579.5" y="135.2" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="599.0" y1="116.0" x2="599.0" y2="142.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="594.5" y="123.2" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="614.0" y1="116.0" x2="614.0" y2="137.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="609.5" y="123.2" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="629.0" y1="106.4" x2="629.0" y2="137.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="624.5" y="113.6" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="644.0" y1="96.8" x2="644.0" y2="120.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="639.5" y="104.0" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="659.0" y1="84.8" x2="659.0" y2="111.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="654.5" y="92.0" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="394.4" x2="753" y2="394.4" stroke="#888"/>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="376.9" width="9" height="17.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="375.1" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="69.5" y="374.3" width="9" height="20.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="84.5" y="377.8" width="9" height="16.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="374.7" width="9" height="19.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="373.8" width="9" height="20.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="377.3" width="9" height="17.1" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="374.3" width="9" height="20.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="373.4" width="9" height="21.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="174.5" y="378.2" width="9" height="16.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="189.5" y="376.0" width="9" height="18.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="204.5" y="375.1" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="219.5" y="374.7" width="9" height="19.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="234.5" y="375.6" width="9" height="18.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="249.5" y="373.4" width="9" height="21.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="264.5" y="371.6" width="9" height="22.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="370.3" width="9" height="24.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="369.0" width="9" height="25.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="324.4" width="9" height="70.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="341.9" width="9" height="52.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="339.5" y="355.0" width="9" height="39.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="354.5" y="359.4" width="9" height="35.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="369.5" y="361.6" width="9" height="32.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="384.5" y="363.8" width="9" height="30.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="399.5" y="357.2" width="9" height="37.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="414.5" y="370.3" width="9" height="24.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="429.5" y="372.5" width="9" height="21.9" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="444.5" y="374.7" width="9" height="19.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="459.5" y="368.1" width="9" height="26.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="474.5" y="359.4" width="9" height="35.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="489.5" y="367.3" width="9" height="27.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="504.5" y="369.0" width="9" height="25.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="519.5" y="372.5" width="9" height="21.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="534.5" y="368.1" width="9" height="26.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="549.5" y="369.5" width="9" height="24.9" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="564.5" y="373.4" width="9" height="21.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="579.5" y="370.3" width="9" height="24.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="594.5" y="371.6" width="9" height="22.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="609.5" y="373.8" width="9" height="20.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="624.5" y="372.5" width="9" height="21.9" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="639.5" y="370.8" width="9" height="23.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="654.5" y="372.1" width="9" height="22.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<text x="24" y="318.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
<text x="224.0" y="272.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low</text>
|
||
<text x="314.0" y="66.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">rezultate bune</text>
|
||
<text x="404.0" y="270.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">picior 1</text>
|
||
<text x="464.0" y="270.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">picior 2</text>
|
||
<text x="479.0" y="181.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">trigger</text>
|
||
<text x="659.0" y="74.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="424" fill="#555">Nu cumperi căderea. Aștepți retestul swing low-ului și un bottom confirmat.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Căderea se oprește la <strong>51.40</strong>, la 10 cenți de swing low-ul anterior
|
||
(51.30). Acolo sunt cumpărătorii care au apărat nivelul prima dată.</li>
|
||
<li>Revenire la <strong>53.15</strong> (neckline), apoi al doilea picior tot la <strong>51.40</strong>:
|
||
double bottom.</li>
|
||
<li>Trigger: prima închidere peste neckline, <strong>53.40</strong> → intrare. <strong>SL 51.15</strong>,
|
||
sub ambele picioare și sub swing low: sub el, nivelul nu mai e apărat.
|
||
Risc 2.25.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>TP 57.90 = 2R</strong>, atins după 12 zile. Deasupra, <strong>open-ul zilei de raport
|
||
(58.00)</strong> e rezistență: acolo cei prinși la open ies pe zero.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="4-cadere-inainte-de-earnings-apoi-explozie-cu-rezerva">4. Cădere înainte de earnings, apoi explozie — cu rezervă</h2>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Nvidia a picat înainte de earnings, vă spuneam că ăsta este un pattern
|
||
destul de frequent pe care îl vedem și după care e explozie, nu înseamnă
|
||
neapărat că se va întâmpla așa sută la sută"</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p>Pe 21.08 a nuanțat: urcarea nu vine neapărat în ziua raportului, ci imediat
|
||
după. <strong>Nu e o regulă de intrare.</strong> Recolta din 25.08 îl leagă de un singur lucru
|
||
(condiția nu apare în citatul de mai sus, e formularea recoltei): simbolul
|
||
trebuie să fi repetat pattern-ul la raportările anterioare. Și chiar
|
||
atunci, recolta vorbește de o poziție pe opțiuni, nu de acțiuni.</p>
|
||
<h3 id="da-cu-rezerva-pattern-repetat-la-raportarile-trecute">DA (cu rezervă): pattern repetat la raportările trecute</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:pre_da-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 262" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — weekly</text>
|
||
<line x1="216.5" y1="52.0" x2="216.5" y2="220.4" stroke="#bbb" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
|
||
<line x1="411.5" y1="52.0" x2="411.5" y2="220.4" stroke="#bbb" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
|
||
<line x1="44.0" y1="207.4" x2="44.0" y2="220.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="210.1" width="9" height="7.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="59.0" y1="199.8" x2="59.0" y2="212.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="202.5" width="9" height="7.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="74.0" y1="199.4" x2="74.0" y2="205.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="69.5" y="202.1" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="89.0" y1="195.4" x2="89.0" y2="204.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="84.5" y="198.1" width="9" height="4.1" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="104.0" y1="187.8" x2="104.0" y2="200.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="190.5" width="9" height="7.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="119.0" y1="187.4" x2="119.0" y2="193.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="190.1" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="134.0" y1="183.4" x2="134.0" y2="192.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="186.1" width="9" height="4.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="149.0" y1="175.8" x2="149.0" y2="188.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="178.5" width="9" height="7.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="164.0" y1="175.4" x2="164.0" y2="181.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="178.1" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="179.0" y1="175.4" x2="179.0" y2="190.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="174.5" y="178.1" width="9" height="9.7" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="194.0" y1="185.1" x2="194.0" y2="200.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="189.5" y="187.8" width="9" height="9.7" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="209.0" y1="194.8" x2="209.0" y2="210.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="204.5" y="197.5" width="9" height="9.7" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="224.0" y1="158.0" x2="224.0" y2="168.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="219.5" y="160.7" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="239.0" y1="155.1" x2="239.0" y2="163.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="234.5" y="157.8" width="9" height="3.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="254.0" y1="148.4" x2="254.0" y2="160.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="249.5" y="151.1" width="9" height="6.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="269.0" y1="148.4" x2="269.0" y2="154.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="264.5" y="151.1" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="284.0" y1="146.1" x2="284.0" y2="154.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="148.8" width="9" height="3.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="299.0" y1="139.4" x2="299.0" y2="151.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="142.1" width="9" height="6.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="314.0" y1="139.4" x2="314.0" y2="145.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="142.1" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="329.0" y1="137.1" x2="329.0" y2="145.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="139.8" width="9" height="3.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="344.0" y1="130.4" x2="344.0" y2="142.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="339.5" y="133.1" width="9" height="6.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="359.0" y1="130.4" x2="359.0" y2="136.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="354.5" y="133.1" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="374.0" y1="131.0" x2="374.0" y2="147.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="369.5" y="133.7" width="9" height="10.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="389.0" y1="141.6" x2="389.0" y2="157.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="384.5" y="144.3" width="9" height="10.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="404.0" y1="152.3" x2="404.0" y2="168.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="399.5" y="155.0" width="9" height="10.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="419.0" y1="107.6" x2="419.0" y2="118.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="414.5" y="110.3" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="434.0" y1="104.7" x2="434.0" y2="113.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="429.5" y="107.4" width="9" height="3.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="449.0" y1="98.0" x2="449.0" y2="110.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="444.5" y="100.7" width="9" height="6.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="464.0" y1="98.0" x2="464.0" y2="104.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="459.5" y="100.7" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="479.0" y1="95.7" x2="479.0" y2="104.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="474.5" y="98.4" width="9" height="3.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="494.0" y1="89.0" x2="494.0" y2="101.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="489.5" y="91.7" width="9" height="6.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="509.0" y1="89.0" x2="509.0" y2="95.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="504.5" y="91.7" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="524.0" y1="86.7" x2="524.0" y2="95.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="519.5" y="89.4" width="9" height="3.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="539.0" y1="80.0" x2="539.0" y2="92.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="534.5" y="82.7" width="9" height="6.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="554.0" y1="80.0" x2="554.0" y2="86.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="549.5" y="82.7" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="569.0" y1="80.6" x2="569.0" y2="97.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="564.5" y="83.3" width="9" height="11.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="584.0" y1="92.2" x2="584.0" y2="109.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="579.5" y="94.9" width="9" height="11.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="599.0" y1="103.8" x2="599.0" y2="120.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="594.5" y="106.5" width="9" height="11.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<text x="179.0" y="157.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">-6%</text>
|
||
<text x="224.0" y="144.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">E1 +9%</text>
|
||
<text x="374.0" y="113.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">-6%</text>
|
||
<text x="419.0" y="93.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">E2 +10%</text>
|
||
<text x="581.0" y="62.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">-6%</text>
|
||
<text x="611.0" y="144.9" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">E3 ?</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="250" fill="#555">Istoric: cădere înainte de raport, apoi gap up — de două ori. A treia oară nu e garantat.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Trei trimestre pe weekly. Înainte de fiecare raport, <strong>−6%</strong> în 3
|
||
săptămâni.</li>
|
||
<li>E1: gap <strong>+9%</strong>. E2: gap <strong>+10%</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>Acum E3: aceeași cădere de −6%. Istoricul e de partea long-ului, <strong>dar două
|
||
trimestre nu fac o statistică</strong>. Dacă îl joci, îl joci ca gamble trade:
|
||
opțiuni cu risc limitat, sau fracțiunea de poziție din secțiunea 1.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h3 id="nu-istoric-amestecat">NU: istoric amestecat</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:pre_nu-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 212" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — weekly</text>
|
||
<line x1="216.5" y1="52.0" x2="216.5" y2="170.0" stroke="#bbb" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
|
||
<line x1="411.5" y1="52.0" x2="411.5" y2="170.0" stroke="#bbb" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
|
||
<line x1="44.0" y1="157.0" x2="44.0" y2="170.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="159.7" width="9" height="7.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="59.0" y1="149.4" x2="59.0" y2="162.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="152.1" width="9" height="7.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="74.0" y1="149.0" x2="74.0" y2="154.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="69.5" y="151.7" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="89.0" y1="145.0" x2="89.0" y2="154.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="84.5" y="147.7" width="9" height="4.1" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="104.0" y1="137.4" x2="104.0" y2="150.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="140.1" width="9" height="7.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="119.0" y1="137.0" x2="119.0" y2="142.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="139.7" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="134.0" y1="133.0" x2="134.0" y2="142.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="135.7" width="9" height="4.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="149.0" y1="125.4" x2="149.0" y2="138.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="128.1" width="9" height="7.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="164.0" y1="125.0" x2="164.0" y2="130.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="127.7" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="179.0" y1="125.0" x2="179.0" y2="140.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="174.5" y="127.7" width="9" height="9.7" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="194.0" y1="134.7" x2="194.0" y2="149.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="189.5" y="137.4" width="9" height="9.7" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="209.0" y1="144.4" x2="209.0" y2="159.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="204.5" y="147.1" width="9" height="9.7" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="224.0" y1="107.6" x2="224.0" y2="118.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="219.5" y="110.3" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="239.0" y1="104.7" x2="239.0" y2="113.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="234.5" y="107.4" width="9" height="3.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="254.0" y1="98.0" x2="254.0" y2="110.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="249.5" y="100.7" width="9" height="6.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="269.0" y1="98.0" x2="269.0" y2="104.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="264.5" y="100.7" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="284.0" y1="95.7" x2="284.0" y2="104.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="98.4" width="9" height="3.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="299.0" y1="89.0" x2="299.0" y2="101.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="91.7" width="9" height="6.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="314.0" y1="89.0" x2="314.0" y2="95.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="91.7" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="329.0" y1="86.7" x2="329.0" y2="95.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="89.4" width="9" height="3.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="344.0" y1="80.0" x2="344.0" y2="92.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="339.5" y="82.7" width="9" height="6.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="359.0" y1="80.0" x2="359.0" y2="86.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="354.5" y="82.7" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="374.0" y1="80.6" x2="374.0" y2="96.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="369.5" y="83.3" width="9" height="10.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="389.0" y1="91.2" x2="389.0" y2="107.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="384.5" y="93.9" width="9" height="10.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="404.0" y1="101.9" x2="404.0" y2="117.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="399.5" y="104.6" width="9" height="10.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="419.0" y1="152.4" x2="419.0" y2="163.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="414.5" y="155.1" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="434.0" y1="151.7" x2="434.0" y2="163.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="429.5" y="154.4" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="449.0" y1="142.2" x2="449.0" y2="157.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="444.5" y="144.9" width="9" height="9.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="464.0" y1="139.8" x2="464.0" y2="147.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="459.5" y="142.5" width="9" height="2.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="479.0" y1="133.7" x2="479.0" y2="145.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="474.5" y="136.4" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="494.0" y1="124.2" x2="494.0" y2="139.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="489.5" y="126.9" width="9" height="9.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="509.0" y1="121.8" x2="509.0" y2="129.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="504.5" y="124.5" width="9" height="2.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="524.0" y1="115.7" x2="524.0" y2="127.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="519.5" y="118.4" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="539.0" y1="106.2" x2="539.0" y2="121.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="534.5" y="108.9" width="9" height="9.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="554.0" y1="103.8" x2="554.0" y2="111.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="549.5" y="106.5" width="9" height="2.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="569.0" y1="103.8" x2="569.0" y2="119.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="564.5" y="106.5" width="9" height="10.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="584.0" y1="113.9" x2="584.0" y2="129.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="579.5" y="116.6" width="9" height="10.1" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="599.0" y1="124.0" x2="599.0" y2="139.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="594.5" y="126.7" width="9" height="10.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<text x="179.0" y="107.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">-6%</text>
|
||
<text x="224.0" y="93.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">E1 +9%</text>
|
||
<text x="374.0" y="62.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">-6%</text>
|
||
<text x="419.0" y="184.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">E2 -8%</text>
|
||
<text x="581.0" y="85.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">-6%</text>
|
||
<text x="611.0" y="163.6" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">E3 ?</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="200" fill="#555">Aceeași cădere pre-raport, dar la E2 a urmat gap down. Istoric amestecat: fără edge.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<p>Aceeași cădere de −6% înainte de fiecare raport. La E1 a urmat +9%, la E2
|
||
<strong>gap −8%</strong>. Pattern-ul nu s-a repetat, deci nu ai de ce să crezi că
|
||
funcționează la E3.</p>
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>Pre-earnings — DA (cu rezervă)</th>
|
||
<th>Pre-earnings — NU</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>același comportament la raportările anterioare</td>
|
||
<td>fără istoric al pattern-ului pe simbol</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>cădere pre-raport acum</td>
|
||
<td>istoric amestecat (o dată gap up, o dată gap down)</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>expunere cu risc limitat (opțiuni)</td>
|
||
<td>poziție întreagă pe acțiuni înainte de raport</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="5-optiuni-butterfly-si-condor">5. Opțiuni: butterfly și condor</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>Ce nu se poate desena aici și de ce.</strong> <code>svg_candles</code> desenează preț în
|
||
timp. Payoff-ul unei opțiuni (cât câștigi la fiecare preț de la expirare) e
|
||
alt grafic: pe orizontală prețul, pe verticală profitul, fără timp și fără
|
||
candele. Nu îl forțez într-o diagramă de preț. Ce se poate desena sunt
|
||
<strong>strike-urile</strong>, pentru că sunt prețuri: le pun ca niveluri pe scenariul de
|
||
preț pentru care alegi structura. Payoff-ul e dat în tabel, cu cifre.</p>
|
||
<h3 id="butterfly-bias-din-raportul-callput-volatilitate-mare">Butterfly: bias din raportul call/put, volatilitate mare</h3>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„era de trei ori sau aproape de patru ori raportul col versus put. Pe
|
||
lanțul de opțiuni asta a fost și ideea pentru care am fost bias către
|
||
upside"</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p>Exemplul din sesiune (03.09): Snowflake a urcat <strong>~+23%</strong> după earnings.
|
||
Butterfly-ul a prins fill peste noapte. Un call simplu ar fi câștigat mai
|
||
mult, dar „m-ar fi prăjit volatilitatea": cu IV foarte mare, prima call-ului
|
||
e umflată, iar după raport IV cade. Dacă mișcarea nu e destul de mare, call-ul
|
||
pierde chiar dacă direcția a fost corectă.</p>
|
||
<!--SVG:butterfly-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 684 330" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="80.0" x2="546.5" y2="80.0" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="552.5" y="84.0" fill="#6a3d9a">aripa sus 65.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="140.0" x2="546.5" y2="140.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="552.5" y="144.0" fill="#1a5fb4">corp butterfly 60.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="200.0" x2="546.5" y2="200.0" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="552.5" y="204.0" fill="#6a3d9a">aripa jos 55.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="44.0" y1="254.0" x2="44.0" y2="263.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="257.6" width="9" height="2.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="59.0" y1="254.0" x2="59.0" y2="266.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="257.6" width="9" height="4.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="74.0" y1="250.4" x2="74.0" y2="266.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="69.5" y="254.0" width="9" height="8.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="89.0" y1="250.4" x2="89.0" y2="262.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="84.5" y="254.0" width="9" height="4.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="104.0" y1="255.2" x2="104.0" y2="268.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="258.8" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="119.0" y1="252.8" x2="119.0" y2="268.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="256.4" width="9" height="8.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="134.0" y1="245.6" x2="134.0" y2="260.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="249.2" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="149.0" y1="245.6" x2="149.0" y2="258.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="249.2" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="164.0" y1="251.6" x2="164.0" y2="264.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="255.2" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="179.0" y1="249.2" x2="179.0" y2="264.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="174.5" y="252.8" width="9" height="8.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="194.0" y1="244.4" x2="194.0" y2="256.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="189.5" y="248.0" width="9" height="4.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="209.0" y1="244.4" x2="209.0" y2="257.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="204.5" y="248.0" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="224.0" y1="250.4" x2="224.0" y2="263.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="219.5" y="254.0" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="239.0" y1="256.4" x2="239.0" y2="267.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="234.5" y="260.0" width="9" height="3.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="254.0" y1="252.8" x2="254.0" y2="267.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="249.5" y="256.4" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="269.0" y1="246.8" x2="269.0" y2="260.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="264.5" y="250.4" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="284.0" y1="246.8" x2="284.0" y2="258.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="250.4" width="9" height="4.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="299.0" y1="251.6" x2="299.0" y2="264.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="255.2" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="314.0" y1="254.0" x2="314.0" y2="264.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="257.6" width="9" height="3.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="329.0" y1="248.0" x2="329.0" y2="261.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="251.6" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="344.0" y1="248.0" x2="344.0" y2="260.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="339.5" y="251.6" width="9" height="4.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="359.0" y1="252.8" x2="359.0" y2="266.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="354.5" y="256.4" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="374.0" y1="255.2" x2="374.0" y2="266.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="369.5" y="258.8" width="9" height="3.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="389.0" y1="249.2" x2="389.0" y2="262.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="384.5" y="252.8" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="404.0" y1="249.2" x2="404.0" y2="261.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="399.5" y="252.8" width="9" height="4.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="419.0" y1="254.0" x2="419.0" y2="264.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="414.5" y="257.6" width="9" height="3.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="434.0" y1="256.4" x2="434.0" y2="264.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="429.5" y="260.0" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="449.0" y1="118.4" x2="449.0" y2="143.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="444.5" y="122.0" width="9" height="18.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="464.0" y1="108.8" x2="464.0" y2="125.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="459.5" y="112.4" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="479.0" y1="108.8" x2="479.0" y2="122.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="474.5" y="112.4" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="494.0" y1="105.2" x2="494.0" y2="122.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="489.5" y="108.8" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="509.0" y1="105.2" x2="509.0" y2="119.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="504.5" y="108.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="524.0" y1="101.6" x2="524.0" y2="119.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="519.5" y="105.2" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="539.0" y1="101.6" x2="539.0" y2="114.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="534.5" y="105.2" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<text x="239.0" y="238.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">range înainte de raport</text>
|
||
<text x="434.0" y="288.8" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">call/put 3-4x</text>
|
||
<text x="449.0" y="167.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">+23%</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="318" fill="#555">Strike-urile sunt prețuri, deci se desenează. Payoff-ul nu: la 61.50 butterfly-ul valorează 3.50 din 5.00.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<p>Strike-urile sunt alese de mine, pe un preț construit (el nu le-a spus):
|
||
close înainte de raport <strong>50.00</strong>, butterfly pe call-uri <strong>55 / 60 / 65</strong>
|
||
(cumperi un call 55, vinzi două call 60, cumperi un call 65). După raport
|
||
prețul închide la <strong>61.50 (+23%)</strong>.</p>
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>La expirare, preț 61.50</th>
|
||
<th>Butterfly 55/60/65</th>
|
||
<th>Call 55 simplu</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>valoare / acțiune</td>
|
||
<td>65 − 61.50 = <strong>3.50</strong> (din maximum 5.00, atins exact la 60)</td>
|
||
<td>61.50 − 55 = <strong>6.50</strong></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>cost</td>
|
||
<td>mic: vinzi două call-uri scumpe ca să le plătești pe cele cumpărate</td>
|
||
<td>mare: plătești toată prima, umflată de IV</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>dacă IV cade după raport</td>
|
||
<td>te afectează puțin: ai opțiuni atât cumpărate, cât și vândute</td>
|
||
<td>pierzi o parte din primă chiar dacă prețul urcă</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>dacă prețul trece de 65</td>
|
||
<td>valoare 0: pierzi prima</td>
|
||
<td>câștig nelimitat</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>dacă prețul scade</td>
|
||
<td>pierzi prima (mică)</td>
|
||
<td>pierzi prima (mare)</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
<p>Asta e alegerea lui: renunți la câștigul mare al call-ului și primești un
|
||
cost mic, cu risc limitat la prima plătită, pe o direcție pe care ai un
|
||
motiv s-o crezi (raportul call/put).</p>
|
||
<h3 id="condor-fara-directie-pariu-ca-miscarea-e-mai-mica-decat-pretul-ei">Condor: fără direcție, pariu că mișcarea e mai mică decât prețul ei</h3>
|
||
<p>Pe 10.09 a pus condorul lângă butterfly, ca alternativă la un gamble trade,
|
||
fără să dea un exemplu. Varianta de mai jos e construcția mea.</p>
|
||
<!--SVG:condor-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 678 290" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
|
||
<line x1="546.5" y1="108.0" x2="551.5" y2="104.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="546.5" y1="115.0" x2="551.5" y2="118.5" stroke="#777" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="546.5" y1="213.0" x2="551.5" y2="209.5" stroke="#777" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="546.5" y1="220.0" x2="551.5" y2="223.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="80.0" x2="546.5" y2="80.0" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="552.5" y="84.0" fill="#6a3d9a">call cumpărat 56.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="108.0" x2="546.5" y2="108.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="552.5" y="108.5" fill="#1a5fb4">call vândut 54.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="115.0" x2="546.5" y2="115.0" stroke="#777" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="552.5" y="122.5" fill="#777">+7% implicit 53.50</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="213.0" x2="546.5" y2="213.0" stroke="#777" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="552.5" y="213.5" fill="#777">−7% implicit 46.50</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="220.0" x2="546.5" y2="220.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="552.5" y="227.5" fill="#1a5fb4">put vândut 46.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="248.0" x2="546.5" y2="248.0" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="552.5" y="252.0" fill="#6a3d9a">put cumpărat 44.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="44.0" y1="154.2" x2="44.0" y2="168.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="158.4" width="9" height="5.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="59.0" y1="147.2" x2="59.0" y2="162.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="151.4" width="9" height="7.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="74.0" y1="147.2" x2="74.0" y2="161.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="69.5" y="151.4" width="9" height="5.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="89.0" y1="152.8" x2="89.0" y2="171.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="84.5" y="157.0" width="9" height="9.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="104.0" y1="157.0" x2="104.0" y2="171.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="161.2" width="9" height="5.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="119.0" y1="148.6" x2="119.0" y2="165.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="152.8" width="9" height="8.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="134.0" y1="141.6" x2="134.0" y2="157.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="145.8" width="9" height="7.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="149.0" y1="141.6" x2="149.0" y2="158.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="145.8" width="9" height="8.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="164.0" y1="150.0" x2="164.0" y2="166.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="154.2" width="9" height="8.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="179.0" y1="158.4" x2="179.0" y2="173.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="174.5" y="162.6" width="9" height="7.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="194.0" y1="159.8" x2="194.0" y2="173.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="189.5" y="164.0" width="9" height="5.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="209.0" y1="151.4" x2="209.0" y2="168.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="204.5" y="155.6" width="9" height="8.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="224.0" y1="144.4" x2="224.0" y2="159.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="219.5" y="148.6" width="9" height="7.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="239.0" y1="144.4" x2="239.0" y2="159.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="234.5" y="148.6" width="9" height="7.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="254.0" y1="151.4" x2="254.0" y2="168.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="249.5" y="155.6" width="9" height="8.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="269.0" y1="159.8" x2="269.0" y2="175.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="264.5" y="164.0" width="9" height="7.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="284.0" y1="161.2" x2="284.0" y2="175.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="165.4" width="9" height="5.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="299.0" y1="152.8" x2="299.0" y2="169.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="157.0" width="9" height="8.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="314.0" y1="145.8" x2="314.0" y2="161.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="150.0" width="9" height="7.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="329.0" y1="145.8" x2="329.0" y2="162.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="150.0" width="9" height="8.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="344.0" y1="154.2" x2="344.0" y2="169.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="339.5" y="158.4" width="9" height="7.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="359.0" y1="155.6" x2="359.0" y2="169.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="354.5" y="159.8" width="9" height="5.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="374.0" y1="148.6" x2="374.0" y2="164.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="369.5" y="152.8" width="9" height="7.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="389.0" y1="148.6" x2="389.0" y2="164.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="384.5" y="152.8" width="9" height="7.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="404.0" y1="155.6" x2="404.0" y2="171.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="399.5" y="159.8" width="9" height="7.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="419.0" y1="158.4" x2="419.0" y2="171.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="414.5" y="162.6" width="9" height="4.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="434.0" y1="158.4" x2="434.0" y2="168.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="429.5" y="162.6" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="449.0" y1="134.6" x2="449.0" y2="147.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="444.5" y="138.8" width="9" height="4.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="464.0" y1="138.8" x2="464.0" y2="151.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="459.5" y="143.0" width="9" height="4.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="479.0" y1="143.0" x2="479.0" y2="157.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="474.5" y="147.2" width="9" height="5.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="494.0" y1="141.6" x2="494.0" y2="157.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="489.5" y="145.8" width="9" height="7.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="509.0" y1="141.6" x2="509.0" y2="155.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="504.5" y="145.8" width="9" height="5.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="524.0" y1="140.2" x2="524.0" y2="155.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="519.5" y="144.4" width="9" height="7.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="539.0" y1="140.2" x2="539.0" y2="152.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="534.5" y="144.4" width="9" height="4.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<text x="239.0" y="131.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">range, fără bias</text>
|
||
<text x="434.0" y="128.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">raport</text>
|
||
<text x="449.0" y="177.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">+3.6%</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="278" fill="#555">Piața plătea o mișcare de ±7%; a venit +3.6%. Prețul rămâne între strike-urile vândute.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Range fără bias, raport după close. Prețul opțiunilor include o mișcare de
|
||
<strong>±7%</strong>: 46.50 - 53.50. (O aproximezi din prețul straddle-ului la strike-ul
|
||
curent.)</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Iron condor</strong>: vinzi put 46 și call 54, <strong>în afara</strong> mișcării implicite;
|
||
cumperi put 44 și call 56 ca protecție.</li>
|
||
<li>Raportul aduce <strong>+3.6%</strong> (open 51.80). Prețul rămâne între 46 și 54: ambele
|
||
opțiuni vândute expiră fără valoare, iar prima încasată rămâne a ta. IV cade
|
||
după raport, deci și înainte de expirare structura câștigă.</li>
|
||
<li>Dacă prețul trecea de 56 sau sub 44: pierdere maximă = 2.00 (lățimea
|
||
aripii) minus prima încasată. Nu mai mult, oricât de mare e gap-ul.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h3 id="tabel-de-citire">Tabel de citire</h3>
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th></th>
|
||
<th>Butterfly</th>
|
||
<th>Condor (iron condor)</th>
|
||
<th>Call / put simplu</th>
|
||
<th>Acțiuni</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>când</strong></td>
|
||
<td>ai bias (call/put 3-4x) + IV foarte mare</td>
|
||
<td>nu ai bias; crezi că mișcarea va fi mai mică decât cea implicită</td>
|
||
<td>ai bias și IV normală</td>
|
||
<td>fără earnings în zilele următoare</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>ce cere de la IV</strong></td>
|
||
<td>mare: vinzi opțiunile scumpe din corp</td>
|
||
<td>mare: vinzi prima umflată, care se dezumflă după raport</td>
|
||
<td>mică: o cumperi</td>
|
||
<td>irelevantă</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>câștigi dacă</strong></td>
|
||
<td>prețul ajunge lângă corp</td>
|
||
<td>prețul rămâne între strike-urile vândute</td>
|
||
<td>prețul se mișcă mult în direcția ta</td>
|
||
<td>trendul continuă</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>risc maxim</strong></td>
|
||
<td>prima plătită</td>
|
||
<td>lățimea aripii minus prima</td>
|
||
<td>prima plătită</td>
|
||
<td>gap-ul, peste stop</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>în exemplu</strong></td>
|
||
<td>3.50 din 5.00 la +23%</td>
|
||
<td>toată prima la +3.6%</td>
|
||
<td>6.50 la +23%</td>
|
||
<td>−2R la gap −9.6%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
<p>Fără edge (raport call/put 3-4x; istoric pre-earnings, și acela doar cu
|
||
rezerva lui: „nu sută la sută"; mișcare implicită clar
|
||
exagerată), nicio structură nu transformă gamble trade-ul în trade: doar îi
|
||
limitează pierderea.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="gotchas">Gotchas</h2>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>Verifici data raportului înainte de setup, nu după.</strong> Un setup cu toate
|
||
confluențele (double bottom, buy hammer, MBT-10) nu contează dacă raportul
|
||
e în zilele următoare. Diagrama 1: stop de 1R, pierdere de 2R.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Direcția corectă nu ajunge cu IV foarte mare.</strong> Un call cumpărat scump
|
||
poate pierde chiar dacă prețul urcă. De aceea a ales butterfly, deși un call
|
||
ar fi câștigat mai mult la +23%.<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„m-ar fi prăjit volatilitatea"</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Nu arunca cu bani după gap.</strong> Diagrama gap-up NU: cumpărat la 70.40,
|
||
scos la a doua bară după intrare; intrarea bună a venit la 66.90, în gap.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Pattern-ul pre-earnings rămâne pattern, nu regulă.</strong> Fără istoric pe
|
||
simbol nu există; cu istoric, rămâne gamble trade cu risc limitat.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Pe acțiuni scumpe sau volatile, opțiunile pot fi mai potrivite decât
|
||
acțiunile</strong> (10.09) — dar nici opțiunile nu iartă o direcție greșită:
|
||
opțiunile lui pe ON au mers prost când bottom-ul a mai făcut un picior
|
||
(04.09).</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="surse">Surse</h2>
|
||
<p>Din analiza zilnică (recoltele din <code>harvest/</code>):</p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>21.08.2026</strong> — earnings pre-market vs after-close; Nvidia: urcarea vine
|
||
imediat după raport, nu neapărat în ziua lui.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>24.08.2026</strong> — FVG monthly bun, dar simbolul raporta a doua zi → NU.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>25.08.2026</strong> — cădere înainte de earnings, apoi explozie; „nu sută la
|
||
sută"; contează istoricul simbolului.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>02.09.2026</strong> — cădere la earnings deși rezultatele sunt bune → peak bottom
|
||
la retestul swing low-ului; gap-ul ca risc (sub preț) sau țintă (deasupra).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>03.09.2026</strong> — raportul call/put 3-4x ca bias; butterfly în loc de call
|
||
simplu la volatilitate mare; Snowflake ~+23%.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>04.09.2026</strong> — opțiunile pe ON care n-au mers: bottom-ul a mai făcut un
|
||
picior.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>10.09.2026</strong> — earnings iminente = gamble trade, butterfly sau condor
|
||
doar cu edge (Oracle); pullback în gap / 1/2 gap după gap-up (Microsoft);
|
||
acțiunile scumpe se joacă în tranșe sau cu opțiuni.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<p>Din curs: <a href="../03_MODUL_2/05_volatilitatea_beta_atr_vix.html">Volatilitatea, beta, ATR, VIX</a>.
|
||
În același modul: <a href="01_buy_doji_si_strategia_mici.html">Buy doji și strategia MICI</a>
|
||
(earnings în zilele următoare scot MICI din joc),
|
||
<a href="03_locul_crimei_si_pullback.html">Locul crimei și pullback</a>.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<p><em>Ce e completare a mea: toate prețurile și diagramele sunt construite. Din
|
||
curs vin regulile (gamble trade, butterfly/condor doar cu edge, call/put 3-4x,
|
||
evitarea call-ului simplu la IV mare, pullback în gap sau 1/2 gap, peak bottom
|
||
la retestul swing low-ului după căderea pe rezultate bune, pattern-ul
|
||
pre-earnings cu rezerva lui), exemplele numite (Oracle, Microsoft, Snowflake,
|
||
Nvidia, ON) și citatele. Ale mele sunt: mecanismul gap-ului peste stop și
|
||
executarea la open; calculul fracțiunii de poziție pe gap-ul istoric maxim;
|
||
stop-urile și țintele din exemple (sub hammer, gap umplut ca țintă, 2R);
|
||
explicația căderii pe rezultate bune; strike-urile butterfly-ului (55/60/65),
|
||
tot exemplul de condor, mișcarea implicită din straddle și tabelul de citire.
|
||
Varianta DA a pattern-ului pre-earnings nu e un semnal dat de el, e ilustrarea
|
||
condiției din recolta 25.08 (pattern repetat la raportările anterioare), nu a
|
||
unui citat al lui. Tot ale mele: „mișcarea implicită clar exagerată" ca edge,
|
||
rândurile DA / NU despre volumul din pullback și „gap umplut complet, close sub
|
||
marginea de jos" din tabelul gap-up.</em></p><nav class="pager"><a class="prev" href="08_executie_si_risc.html">← 08. #8 — Execuție și risc</a><a class="up" href="../index.html#08_ANALIZA_ZILNICA">↑ index</a><a class="next" href="10_sinteza.html">10. #10 — Sinteza: cum se leagă strategiile →</a></nav>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html>
|