Scrisa de un agent, cu noul standard de diagrame: 12 grafice reale, serii continue de 30-42 de bare, cu panou de volum si, la strategia de divergenta, un panou de Momentum(28) calculat cu formula lui (close minus close-ul de acum 28 de bare). 61 de assert-uri in generator. Continut: semnalele care anunta o corectie (volum pe put-uri, VIX), buy doji weekly cu intrare in trei transe, marubozu care "sta in picioare" cat timp nu inchide sub open (DA/NU), double bottom cu al doilea picior mai jos (cand merge si cand nu), strategia completa de divergenta cu Momentum, canal de trend, bull flag cu cele doua tinte, si de ce nu recomanda inca optiunile. 11 intrari noi in INDEX_TEMATIC.md. Referintele sunt IG si Cboe, nu Investopedia: agentul n-a putut verifica linkurile Investopedia din mediul lui, deci nu le-a pus. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01MtSTyTmt6AbCL9j5ajEDm1
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656 lines
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<title>Modul 3 / #4 — Strategia 2: MP² (pivoți dubli)</title>
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<h1 id="modul-3-4-strategia-2-mp2-pivoti-dubli">Modul 3 / #4 — Strategia 2: MP² (pivoți dubli)</h1>
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<h2 id="tldr">TLDR</h2>
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<p>MP² (denumit "MP pătrat" în curs — nu i se dă altă semnificație a numelui,
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altfel decât "doi pivoți") e a doua strategie 100% mecanică a cursului, după
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M2D (<code>03_MODUL_2/14_strategia_1_m2d.md</code>). Diferența cheie față de M2D:
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direcția nu vine din momentum-ul prețului, ci din poziția relativă a doi
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<strong>pivot points</strong> calculați pe două time frame-uri diferite — "pivotul mic"
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(time frame mai mic) și "pivotul mare" (time frame mai mare). Trigger-ul de
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intrare rămâne totuși pe preț: prima candelă care închide de partea corectă
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a pivotului mic. Cursul insistă că e cea mai bună strategie a lui pentru
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prins <strong>schimbări majore de trend</strong> (topuri și bottom-uri de piață), tocmai
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pentru că two-timeframe-pivot-cross e o confirmare mai puternică decât un
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pattern vizual izolat.</p>
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<p>Backtest citat (SPY): pe combinația daily/weekly cu trigger 60 min, 20
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tranzacții într-o fereastră scurtă (13.2–25.4), 18 din 20 au mers (90%),
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+22%/−1.42% (volatilitate mare, nu tipic). Pe combinația weekly/monthly cu
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trigger daily, 20 tranzacții pe ~16 luni (8.1.2024–3.4.2025), 15 din 20 (75%),
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+34% cu trail / +31% fără / −11% pierdere agregată.</p>
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<h2 id="cele-3-combinatii-de-pivoti-nu-fibonacci-ca-la-m2d-doar-3-trepte-fixe">Cele 3 combinații de pivoți (nu Fibonacci, ca la M2D — doar 3 trepte fixe)</h2>
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<table>
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>Pivot mic / pivot mare</th>
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<th>Trigger (time frame de intrare)</th>
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<th>Stil</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td>daily / weekly</td>
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<td>60 minute</td>
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<td>swing trading, uneori day trading</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>weekly / monthly</td>
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<td>daily</td>
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<td>swing / position trading</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>monthly / quarterly</td>
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<td>weekly</td>
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<td>position trading (luni/ani în tranzacție)</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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<p>Cursul avertizează explicit: combinația monthly/quarterly înseamnă să stai
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"2-3 ani în tranzacție" — puțină lume are răbdare pentru asta.</p>
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<h2 id="regulile-long-harta-m-a-p1-p2">Regulile — LONG (harta M / A / P1 / P2)</h2>
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<p><strong>M (set-up):</strong> pivotul mic trece deasupra pivotului mare (pe combinația
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aleasă — ex. pivotul daily deasupra pivotului weekly).</p>
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<p><strong>A (trigger):</strong> primul Buy Momentum (BIM) <strong>sau</strong> prima candelă verde după
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BIM care <strong>închide</strong> deasupra pivotului mic (care e deja deasupra pivotului
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mare, din M). Nu contează suportul/rezistența — doar linia de pivot.</p>
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<p><strong>P1 (plan):</strong>
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- Stop-loss = low-ul cel mai jos din ultimele 4 candele (low-slow), calculat
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înapoi de la candela de trigger.
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- <strong>Excepție gap:</strong> dacă trigger-ul vine cu gap, stop-loss-ul e low-ul
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candelei de trigger însăși, nu low-ul din 4 candele în spate — altfel
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riști un stop nerealist de departe. (Variantă avansată, doar cu experiență:
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jumătatea gap-ului.)
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- Take-profit 1 = aceeași distanță (entry − SL), risc/recompensă 1:1 la TP1.
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- Poziția rămasă merge pe bull trail (vezi mai jos).</p>
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<p><strong>P2 (money management):</strong> 2 poziții. Poziția 1 iese la TP1, poziția 2 iese
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la bear reversal (violarea bull trail-ului). Mărime: maxim 0.5% din cont pe
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cont prop, maxim 2% pe cont personal — 1% quan e volatilitate mare.</p>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 600 340" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="10" y="15" fill="#666">preț ↑ (SPY, ilustrativ)</text>
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<line x1="20" y1="225" x2="560" y2="225" stroke="#888" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="450" y="220" fill="#888">575 — pivot mare</text>
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<line x1="20" y1="260" x2="280" y2="260" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="24" y="275" fill="#1a5fb4">570 — pivot mic</text>
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<line x1="280" y1="176" x2="560" y2="176" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="290" y="170" fill="#1a5fb4">582 — pivot mic</text>
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<circle cx="280" cy="225" r="5" fill="#555"/>
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<text x="290" y="300" fill="#555">M: pivot mic > pivot mare</text>
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<polyline points="20,330 90,281 150,246 210,274 280,260 310,204 340,155 400,120 460,99 520,78 560,64" fill="none" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="2"/>
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<circle cx="150" cy="246" r="5" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="20" y="300" fill="#c00">NU — M neîndeplinit</text>
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<circle cx="340" cy="155" r="6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="335" y="140" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">585 — entry (trigger)</text>
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<line x1="300" y1="204" x2="560" y2="204" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="2 2"/>
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<text x="300" y="197" fill="#c00">578 — SL</text>
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<line x1="300" y1="106" x2="560" y2="106" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="2 2"/>
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<text x="300" y="99" fill="#188a3e">592 — TP1</text>
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</svg></p>
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<p>Linia neagră e prețul; liniile albastre/gri sunt cele două pivoturi
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(stepped — se recalculează periodic, deci "sar" la un nivel nou, nu curg
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lin ca prețul). Punctul roșu arată de ce nu orice close peste pivotul mic
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e valid — trebuie ca cel mic să fi trecut deja deasupra celui mare (M).</p>
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<h2 id="regula-sau-de-ce-nu-e-nevoie-de-un-bim-proaspat-de-fiecare-data">Regula "SAU" — de ce nu e nevoie de un BIM proaspăt de fiecare dată</h2>
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<p>Prima dată când apare acest nuanță — apare o singură dată, aici, pentru că
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e specifică acestei strategii (la M2D triggerul era mereu un BIM propriu-zis).
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Un student (Adrian) a întrebat de ce nu se intră direct pe primul BIM, fără
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să aștepți neapărat "prima candelă verde după BIM". Răspunsul, cu exemplu
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concret din curs: sunt două situații diferite, ambele valide, de-aia clauza
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"SAU":</p>
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<p><strong>Cazul 1 — BIM proaspăt chiar la momentul M:</strong> prețul era în Sell Momentum,
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pivotul mic trece deasupra pivotului mare, și chiar atunci apare un BIM nou.
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Intri pe acel BIM (sau pe prima candelă verde după el).</p>
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<div style="display:flex;gap:14px;align-items:center;flex-wrap:wrap"><svg viewBox="0 0 260 130" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:260px;height:auto;font:11px sans-serif"><text x="5" y="14" fill="#666">Cazul 1 — BIM proaspăt</text><line x1="10" y1="70" x2="250" y2="70" stroke="#888" stroke-dasharray="3 2"/><text x="12" y="65" fill="#888">pivot mare</text><line x1="10" y1="85" x2="130" y2="85" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-dasharray="3 2"/><line x1="130" y1="55" x2="250" y2="55" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-dasharray="3 2"/><text x="12" y="98" fill="#1a5fb4">pivot mic</text><polyline points="10,100 60,95 100,105 130,85 160,65 200,45 240,30" fill="none" stroke="#333" stroke-width="2"/><circle cx="160" cy="65" r="5" fill="#188a3e"/><text x="150" y="120" fill="#188a3e">BIM = trigger</text></svg><svg viewBox="0 0 260 130" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:260px;height:auto;font:11px sans-serif"><text x="5" y="14" fill="#666">Cazul 2 — deja în Buy, fără BIM nou</text><line x1="10" y1="80" x2="250" y2="80" stroke="#888" stroke-dasharray="3 2"/><text x="12" y="75" fill="#888">pivot mare</text><line x1="10" y1="95" x2="130" y2="95" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-dasharray="3 2"/><line x1="130" y1="50" x2="250" y2="50" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-dasharray="3 2"/><text x="12" y="108" fill="#1a5fb4">pivot mic</text><polyline points="10,90 60,70 100,55 130,50 160,42 200,35 240,25" fill="none" stroke="#333" stroke-width="2"/><circle cx="160" cy="42" r="5" fill="#188a3e"/><text x="65" y="113" fill="#188a3e">deja în Buy, fără BIM nou</text><text x="65" y="126" fill="#188a3e">trigger = close > pivot</text></svg></div>
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<p><strong>Cazul 2 — deja în uptrend, fără BIM nou:</strong> prețul era deja în Buy Momentum
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de câteva zile (de ex. peste weekend, pivotul weekly se recalculează luni),
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și pivotul mic pur și simplu "prinde din urmă" pivotul mare fără ca prețul
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să dea un semnal nou de Buy chiar atunci. Dacă ai fi așteptat strict un BIM
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proaspăt, n-ai fi avut niciodată trigger — pentru că nu mai apare unul (ești
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deja în trend). Aici, clauza "SAU" spune: ia prima candelă care închide
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peste pivotul mic (chiar dacă nu e o candelă de BIM "proaspăt") ca trigger.</p>
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<h2 id="exceptia-de-gap-la-stop-loss">Excepția de gap la stop-loss</h2>
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<p>Regula standard (low-ul ultimelor 4 candele) presupune candele consecutive
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fără sărituri mari. La un gap (intrare imediat după un gap up, de exemplu),
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mersul 4 candele în spate poate scoate un stop nerealist de departe.</p>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 395" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">ilustrativ — daily (gap up + BIM)</text>
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<text x="30" y="201.2" fill="#188a3e">SL corect 53.05 = low-ul candelei de gap (trigger)</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="300.6" x2="606" y2="300.6" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="294.6" fill="#c00">SL greșit 50.83 = 4 candele înainte de gap</text>
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<text x="440.0" y="227.2" fill="#c88" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">gap + BIM</text>
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</svg></p>
|
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<h2 id="exceptie-pentru-topuribottom-uri-majore">Excepție pentru topuri/bottom-uri majore</h2>
|
||
<p>Pentru bottom-uri/topuri majore de piață (nu pullback-uri normale), cursul
|
||
recomandă explicit <strong>să nu</strong> folosești stop-ul standard de 4 candele — la
|
||
astfel de întorsături sunt retesturi dese, iar stopul standard scoate din
|
||
tranzacție prea devreme. Recomandare: stop la cel mai jos swing low (pentru
|
||
long) / cel mai sus swing high (pentru short) din toată mișcarea anterioară,
|
||
nu doar din ultimele 4 candele — asumat, e un stop mult mai larg (curs citat
|
||
un caz de 23% pe Nvidia), dar te ține în trade prin retesturi normale.</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 315" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">ilustrativ — daily (bottom major)</text>
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<text x="30" y="200.4" fill="#c00">SL 4 candele 85.15 (NU)</text>
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<text x="592" y="267.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">SL swing low absolut 80.00 (DA)</text>
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<text x="269.0" y="287.2" fill="#333" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">bottom major</text>
|
||
<text x="404.0" y="150.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">trigger</text>
|
||
<text x="464.0" y="233.3" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">retest</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="303" fill="#555">Retest-ul (84.30) scoate SL-ul de 4 candele; pe cel de la swing low-ul absolut nu-l atinge.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<h2 id="break-even-si-protectie-partiala-regula-spusa-verbal-nu-era-pe-slide">Break-even și protecție parțială (regulă spusă verbal, nu era pe slide)</h2>
|
||
<p>Cursul adaugă, în timpul sesiunii de întrebări, două praguri de protecție a
|
||
profitului (nu sunt pe slide-ul oficial, dar sunt reguli explicite ale
|
||
instructorului):
|
||
- Dacă prețul a trecut de <strong>60%</strong> din distanța estimată până la TP, muți
|
||
stop-loss-ul la break-even.
|
||
- Dacă a trecut de <strong>90%</strong>, protejezi la risc/recompensă 1:2 (adică muți
|
||
stop-ul la jumătate din profitul deja făcut, nu la intrare).</p>
|
||
<h2 id="regulile-short-oglindit">Regulile — SHORT (oglindit)</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>M:</strong> pivotul mic trece <strong>sub</strong> pivotul mare.
|
||
<strong>A:</strong> primul Sell Momentum (SLM) sau prima candelă roșie după SLM care
|
||
închide <strong>sub</strong> pivotul mic.
|
||
<strong>P1:</strong> SL = high-ul cel mai sus din ultimele 4 candele (sau high-ul
|
||
candelei de trigger, la gap); TP1 = aceeași distanță în jos; poziția rămasă
|
||
pe bear trail.
|
||
<strong>P2:</strong> identic cu long.</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 600 370" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="10" y="15" fill="#666">preț ↑ (SHORT, oglindit)</text>
|
||
<line x1="20" y1="128" x2="560" y2="128" stroke="#888" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="450" y="122" fill="#888">592 — pivot mare</text>
|
||
<line x1="20" y1="60" x2="280" y2="60" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
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<text x="24" y="53" fill="#1a5fb4">598 — pivot mic</text>
|
||
<line x1="280" y1="206" x2="560" y2="206" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
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<text x="290" y="200" fill="#1a5fb4">585 — pivot mic</text>
|
||
<circle cx="280" cy="128" r="5" fill="#555"/>
|
||
<text x="290" y="300" fill="#555">M: pivot mic < pivot mare</text>
|
||
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<circle cx="340" cy="240" r="6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<text x="350" y="258" fill="#c00">582 — entry (trigger)</text>
|
||
<line x1="300" y1="150" x2="560" y2="150" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="2 2"/>
|
||
<text x="300" y="138" fill="#c00">590 — SL</text>
|
||
<line x1="300" y1="330" x2="560" y2="330" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="2 2"/>
|
||
<text x="300" y="347" fill="#188a3e">574 — TP1</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<h2 id="bull-trail-bear-trail-recap">Bull trail / bear trail — recap</h2>
|
||
<p>Mecanismul complet (de ce candelă închisă, nu wick, contează pentru
|
||
violarea trail-ului) e explicat integral cu diagramă în
|
||
<code>03_MODUL_2/14_strategia_1_m2d.md</code> — aici se aplică identic: bull trail =
|
||
low-ul fiecărei candele care face un maxim nou (long); bear trail = high-ul
|
||
fiecărei candele care face un minim nou (short). Poziția 2 rămâne pe trail
|
||
până la bear/bull reversal (prima candelă închisă de partea greșită a
|
||
liniei de trail).</p>
|
||
<h2 id="confirmare-vs-capcana-care-e-diferenta-fata-de-m2d">Confirmare vs. capcană — care e diferența față de M2D</h2>
|
||
<p>Spre deosebire de M2D (unde triggerul e strict Buy/Sell Momentum, fără
|
||
pivoți), aici triggerul e legat de o linie de preț concretă (pivotul mic),
|
||
nu de un pattern de candele. Asta înseamnă că poți avea o candelă verde
|
||
puternică ("BIM") care totuși nu e trigger valid dacă M nu e îndeplinit
|
||
(pivotul mic încă sub pivotul mare) — vezi punctul roșu "NU" din diagrama
|
||
principală de mai sus. Regula practică: verifică întotdeauna ambele condiții
|
||
separat — poziția relativă a pivoților (M) și close-ul candelei față de
|
||
pivotul mic (A) — nu presupune că una o implică automat pe cealaltă
|
||
înaintea momentului exact al crossing-ului.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="exemplu-1-long-bottom-major-nvda-cifre-reale-din-curs">Exemplu 1 — LONG, bottom major, NVDA (cifre reale din curs)</h2>
|
||
<p>Bottom NVDA, octombrie 2022 (scală ajustată la split, pre-1:10). Prima dată
|
||
pivotul mic (weekly) trece deasupra pivotului mare (monthly) — venind după
|
||
un downtrend masiv. Cursul recomandă explicit, pentru un bottom de talia
|
||
asta, <strong>stop la swing low absolut, nu la 4 candele</strong>: distanța măsurată a
|
||
fost <strong>23%</strong> sub entry (low-ul intrării ~13.76–13.88). Ținta de profit
|
||
proiectată: <strong>~25%</strong>, atinsă în aproximativ <strong>9 săptămâni</strong> (~2.5 luni) — pe
|
||
combinația weekly/monthly, deci timp de reacție de ordinul lunilor, nu
|
||
zilelor.</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 496" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">NVDA — weekly (pre-split 1:10)</text>
|
||
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||
<text x="30" y="236.7" fill="#188a3e">TP ~+25% (17.25), ~9 săpt.</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="353.1" x2="606" y2="353.1" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="347.1" fill="#188a3e">entry ~13.80 (după M+A)</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="454.5" x2="606" y2="454.5" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="592" y="448.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL swing low absolut 10.63, −23%</text>
|
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<rect x="159.5" y="154.0" width="9" height="13.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="194.0" y1="189.0" x2="194.0" y2="214.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="189.5" y="198.5" width="9" height="7.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="209.0" y1="200.5" x2="209.0" y2="255.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="584.0" y1="244.0" x2="584.0" y2="261.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="579.5" y="251.6" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="599.0" y1="244.0" x2="599.0" y2="273.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="594.5" y="251.9" width="9" height="11.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="434.0" y="334.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">M+A</text>
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<text x="24" y="484" fill="#555">Bottom oct. 2022. Din curs: entry ~13.80, −23%, ~+25% în ~9 săpt. Traseu construit; maro = SMA-20.</text>
|
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</svg></p>
|
||
<h2 id="exemplu-2-short-prins-aproape-de-un-top-spy-cifre-reale-din-curs">Exemplu 2 — SHORT, prins aproape de un top, SPY (cifre reale din curs)</h2>
|
||
<p>Cursul arată cum, deși nu prinzi vârful exact al unei mișcări, strategia te
|
||
duce foarte aproape de el la o schimbare de trend: vârful mișcării a fost
|
||
<strong>613</strong>, iar intrarea short (după ce pivotul mic a trecut sub pivotul mare)
|
||
s-a făcut la close-ul candelei de trigger, <strong>599.10</strong> — la mai puțin de 2.5%
|
||
sub vârf. Cursul nu citează stop-loss/TP exacte pentru acest caz punctual;
|
||
complet mai jos, pe regula standard (SL = high ultimele 4 candele), cu un
|
||
high estimat la 605 (marcat ca și completare a mea):</p>
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 399" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">SPY — 60 min</text>
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<text x="592" y="178.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL ~605 (estimat)</text>
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<text x="30" y="272.4" fill="#c00">entry short 599.10</text>
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<text x="30" y="366.8" fill="#188a3e">TP1 ~593 (estimat)</text>
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<rect x="99.5" y="188.6" width="9" height="10.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="524.0" y1="339.2" x2="524.0" y2="364.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="519.5" y="344.5" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="539.0" y1="346.9" x2="539.0" y2="372.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="549.5" y="365.1" width="9" height="1.9" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="569.0" y1="346.0" x2="569.0" y2="371.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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|
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<text x="239.0" y="46.0" fill="#333" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">613 — vârf</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<h2 id="exemplu-3-invalidare-stop-scos-de-spike-apoi-setup-valid-construit">Exemplu 3 — invalidare: stop scos de spike, apoi setup valid (construit)</h2>
|
||
<p>Nu orice prim trigger merge — cursul insistă mult pe asta (COP a fost dat
|
||
ca exemplu real de acest tip, dar fără cifre suficient de clare de reprodus
|
||
exact). Exemplu construit, pe scară similară, ca să arate mecanismul:</p>
|
||
<p>Long pe un titlu la 42.00, SL la 4 candele = 40.80 (distanță 2.9%). Un spike
|
||
de câteva minute atinge 40.75, sub SL — ești scos, deși trendul de fond
|
||
continuă. Al doilea trigger valid apare la 42.60, cu SL 41.40 (aceeași
|
||
distanță relativă) — de data asta ține, și prețul ajunge la TP1 = 43.80.</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 342" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">construit — 5 min</text>
|
||
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|
||
<text x="592" y="50.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">TP1 43.80</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="152.0" x2="606" y2="152.0" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="592" y="146.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">entry 2: 42.60</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="200.0" x2="606" y2="200.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="194.0" fill="#c00">entry 1: 42.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="248.0" x2="606" y2="248.0" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="592" y="242.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">SL 2: 41.40</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="296.0" x2="606" y2="296.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="290.0" fill="#c00">SL 1: 40.80</text>
|
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<rect x="39.0" y="232.0" width="10" height="4.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="62.0" y1="232.7" x2="62.0" y2="249.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="57.0" y="236.0" width="10" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="80.0" y1="239.8" x2="80.0" y2="253.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="75.0" y="243.2" width="10" height="5.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="98.0" y1="244.0" x2="98.0" y2="264.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="93.0" y="248.8" width="10" height="11.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="111.0" y="260.0" width="10" height="15.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="278.0" y="314.0" fill="#c88" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">spike 40.75 — scos</text>
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<text x="188.0" y="182.9" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">1</text>
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<text x="404.0" y="138.7" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">2</text>
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<text x="24" y="330" fill="#555">Prima intrare scoasă de spike, a doua merge.</text>
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</svg></p>
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<h2 id="gotchas-practice-cele-mai-importante">Gotchas practice — cele mai importante</h2>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>Nu sări niciun semnal.</strong> Probabilitățile strategiei se calculează pe
|
||
eșantion complet — dacă ratezi un semnal (bere cu prietenii, ai fost
|
||
ocupat), aștepți următorul, nu intri pe amintirea celui vechi. Un singur
|
||
semnal ratat poate fi cel care ducea 7 tranzacții obișnuite la profit.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>La bottom-uri/topuri majore, nu folosi stop-ul standard de 4 candele</strong> —
|
||
vezi secțiunea dedicată mai sus; retesturile te scot prea devreme.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Volumul nu face parte din regulă</strong> — ajută ca filtru opțional (3+
|
||
candele de acumulare = semnal mai puternic), dar nu e condiție.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>După o serie de pierderi în parametrii normali ai strategiei, nu
|
||
renunța</strong> — dacă știi că strategia poate avea, de exemplu, 6 pierderi
|
||
consecutive și tocmai le-ai luat, following e mai probabil să apară
|
||
tranzacția care recuperează tot, nu momentul să te retragi.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
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<h2 id="cum-se-leaga-de-restul-cursului">Cum se leagă de restul cursului</h2>
|
||
<p>Buy/Sell Momentum (BIM/SLM) e definit integral, cu mecanism, în
|
||
<code>10_buysell_momentum_trigger.md</code> — aici e refolosit ca trigger de preț, dar
|
||
condiția de direcție (M) vine din pivoți, nu din price momentum ca la M2D.
|
||
Bull/bear trail, complet cu mecanism, e în <code>14_strategia_1_m2d.md</code>.</p>
|
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<h2 id="referinte">Referințe</h2>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><a href="https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/how-to-trade-using-pivot-points-200717">IG — How to Trade Using Pivot Points</a> — mecanismul standard de pivot points, folosit ca bază tehnică pentru M/A.</li>
|
||
<li><a href="https://www.oanda.com/us-en/trade-tap-blog/trading-knowledge/importance-of-pivot-points/">OANDA — Importance of pivot points</a> — pivoții ca suport/rezistență matematic, nu desenat.</li>
|
||
<li><a href="https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/using-pivot-points-to-determine-market-sentiment">BabyPips — How to Use Pivot Points to Measure Market Sentiment</a> — pivotul ca prag bullish/bearish, ideea centrală din spatele M-ului din MP².</li>
|
||
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/riskrewardratio.asp">Investopedia — Risk/Reward Ratio</a> — calculul risc/recompensă folosit în exemplele de mai sus.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<p><em>Notă: toate diagramele SVG, secțiunea "Regula SAU" (structurarea explicită
|
||
DA/NU a celor două cazuri), excepția de gap ilustrată grafic, secțiunea
|
||
"Excepție pentru topuri/bottom-uri majore" (mecanism explicat vizual),
|
||
exemplul 3 (integral construit, cifre plauzibile) și completările de
|
||
SL/TP din exemplul 2 (marcate explicit ca estimate) sunt completări ale
|
||
mele. Exemplele 1 (NVDA) și 2 (SPY, cifrele 613/599.10) și cele două
|
||
seturi de backtest din TLDR folosesc cifre citate explicit în transcriere.</em></p>
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||
</body>
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||
</html>
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