45d5a04631
Sus: "Sumarizari / Modulul 2 / #6 — ...", cu modulul legat la ancora lui din index. In 09_QA apare in plus "index tematic", pentru ca acolo se cauta dupa subiect, nu dupa data. Jos: lectia precedenta si urmatoarea din acelasi folder, cu titlul lor, plus un link la index intre ele. Titlurile sunt scurtate pentru bara: prefixul "Modul 2 / " ar repeta modulul deja prezent in breadcrumb, iar la Q&A titlul intreg ocupa trei randuri pe telefon, deci ramane doar data. render_file() merge in continuare apelat pe un singur fisier, cum il folosesc agentii de sumarizare: vecinii vin dintr-un glob pe folder, nu dintr-un parametru nou. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01MtSTyTmt6AbCL9j5ajEDm1
628 lines
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628 lines
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<title>Modul 2 / #8 — Volumul: sângele pieței</title>
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<nav class="crumbs"><a href="../index.html">Sumarizări</a><span class="sep">/</span><a href="../index.html#03_MODUL_2">Modulul 2</a><span class="sep">/</span>#8 — Volumul: sângele pieței</nav><h1 id="modul-2-8-volumul-sangele-pietei">Modul 2 / #8 — Volumul: sângele pieței</h1>
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<h2 id="tldr">TLDR</h2>
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<p>Volumul = numărul de contracte/acțiuni tranzacționate într-o perioadă (la
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Futures se numește <strong>Open Interest</strong>, dar e același lucru). Histograma
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clasică de volum (bare roșii/verzi pe fiecare candelă) spune puțin — doar că
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o bară e mai mare/mică decât media. Ce contează cu adevărat e <strong>trendul
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volumului</strong>: dacă acumularea/distribuția de volum confirmă mișcarea de preț
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sau intră în <strong>divergență</strong> cu ea (mecanismul de bază al divergenței
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preț/volum e deja explicat, cu diagrame, în
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<a href="../01_MODUL_1/06_divergente.md"><code>01_MODUL_1/06_divergente.md</code></a> — nu îl
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reiau aici). Ce adaugă lecția asta: un indicator de <strong>trend de volum</strong>
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(On Balance Volume și o variantă modificată, "Volum H") cu o histogramă care
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măsoară <strong>procentul de schimbare</strong> al volumului de la o candelă la alta —
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asta arată acumulare/distribuție chiar și când prețul încă nu a făcut un
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swing low/high clar de comparat. Volumul nu există pe Forex spot — pe valute
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se folosește un proxy prin piața de futures.</p>
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<h2 id="ce-e-volumul-exact">Ce e volumul, exact</h2>
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<p>Volumul = câte acțiuni/contracte au fost efectiv tranzacționate pe acea
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candelă. Exemplu din curs: Apple, preț ~193$, volum pe o candelă
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71.951.000 acțiuni → 193 × 71.951.000 ≈ 13,9 miliarde $ tranzacționați în
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acea fereastră de timp — o lichiditate uriașă. La Futures (ex. E-mini S&P,
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ES), aceeași mărime se numește <strong>Open Interest</strong> (numărul de contracte
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deschise) — apare și în rapoartele Commitment of Traders sub sigla "OI".</p>
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<h2 id="de-ce-histograma-clasica-de-volum-nu-ajuta-prea-mult">De ce histograma clasică de volum nu ajută prea mult</h2>
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<p>Histograma standard (bare colorate după direcția candelei, plus o linie de
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medie) îți dă o singură informație: bara asta e mai mare/mică decât media.
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Exemplu din curs: pe un doji, media volumului era 65% (din scala
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indicatorului), iar volumul efectiv a fost 121% — dublu față de medie. Atât.
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Nu spune dacă acumularea de volum crește sau scade în timp, care e chiar
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întrebarea utilă pentru un trade.</p>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 300 140" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;max-width:320px;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<rect x="40" y="66.3" width="30" height="53.7" fill="#888"/>
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<text x="20" y="135" fill="#666">bară normală</text>
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<rect x="110" y="20" width="30" height="100" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="90" y="14" fill="#c00">121% — bara cu doji</text>
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<line x1="10" y1="66.3" x2="280" y2="66.3" stroke="#333" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="185" y="61.3" fill="#333">65% — average</text>
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</svg></p>
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<p>Vezi doar "azi e mult volum"; nu vezi dacă volumul, per total, se
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acumulează sau se distribuie de mai multe candele încoace — de-aia lecția
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trece la un indicator de <strong>trend</strong>.</p>
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<h2 id="on-balance-volume-obv-volumul-ca-linie-de-trend">On Balance Volume (OBV) — volumul ca linie de trend</h2>
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<p><strong>OBV</strong> (inventat de Joseph Granville) transformă volumul brut într-o linie
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cumulativă: adaugă volumul zilei dacă închiderea e mai sus decât precedenta,
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îl scade dacă e mai jos. Rezultatul e o linie care, la fel ca prețul, poate
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face higher-highs/higher-lows (uptrend de volum) sau lower-highs/lower-lows
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(downtrend de volum) — și care poate diverge de linia de preț.</p>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 340 162" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;max-width:360px;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="8" y="15" fill="#666">OBV ↑</text>
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<circle cx="270" cy="45" r="4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="45" y="112" fill="#188a3e">higher low</text>
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<text x="145" y="62" fill="#188a3e">higher low</text>
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<text x="245" y="35" fill="#188a3e">higher high</text>
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<text x="20" y="138" fill="#333">trend de volum ascendent — la fel ca la preț,</text>
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<text x="20" y="153" fill="#333">se citesc higher/lower</text>
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</svg></p>
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<h2 id="varianta-din-curs-volum-h-obv-modificat-medie-mobila-histograma">Varianta din curs — "Volum H" (OBV modificat + medie mobilă + histogramă)</h2>
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<p>Indicatorul folosit efectiv în mentorat (parte din curriculumul avansat) e o
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variantă modificată de OBV, cu trei componente pe același panou:
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- <strong>Linia verde</strong> — trendul volumului (echivalent OBV).
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- <strong>Linia magenta</strong> — media mobilă (MA) a liniei verzi.
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- <strong>Histograma</strong> — nu volumul brut, ci <strong>procentul de schimbare</strong> al
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volumului față de candela anterioară (bare deasupra liniei de 0 =
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volumul crește candelă-cu-candelă = <strong>acumulare</strong>; bare sub 0 = volumul
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scade = <strong>distribuție</strong>).</p>
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<p><strong>Regula de citire:</strong> linia verde peste MA și ascendentă = acumulare
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confirmată (susține un uptrend); linia verde sub MA și descendentă =
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distribuție confirmată (susține un downtrend). Momentul în care linia verde
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traversează MA coincide, de regulă, cu momentul în care histograma
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traversează linia de 0.</p>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 400 170" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;max-width:420px;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<line x1="10" y1="60" x2="390" y2="60" stroke="#999" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="8" y="45" fill="#666">linie volum (verde) + MA (magenta)</text>
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<polyline points="20,55 80,53 140,52 200,50 260,48" fill="none" stroke="#c26ba0" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="3 2"/>
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<circle cx="140" cy="51" r="4" fill="#333"/>
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<text x="95" y="72" fill="#333">crossing verde peste MA = acumulare</text>
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<line x1="10" y1="140" x2="390" y2="140" stroke="#888" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="8" y="130" fill="#666">0</text>
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<rect x="35" y="140" width="20" height="18" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="80" y="140" width="20" height="10" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="140" y="122" width="20" height="18" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="200" y="112" width="20" height="28" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<text x="245" y="125" fill="#1a5fb4">histograma trece peste 0</text>
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</svg></p>
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<p><strong>Subtilitatea importantă</strong> (asta e insight-ul repetat de mentor pe zeci de
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exemple): dacă barele histogramei sub 0 se <strong>scurtează</strong> de la o candelă la
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alta (ex. -44.929 apoi -7.526), înseamnă că distribuția slăbește — volumul
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se acumulează încet, chiar dacă prețul încă face un minim nou și histograma
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e tehnic tot sub 0. Nu ai nevoie ca bara să treacă peste 0 ca să vezi
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acumulare — ai nevoie doar ca ea să se scurteze constant.</p>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 260 178" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:260px;height:auto;font:11px sans-serif">
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<line x1="10" y1="30" x2="250" y2="30" stroke="#888" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="215" y="25" fill="#666">0</text>
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<rect x="30" y="30" width="25" height="85" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<text x="10" y="128" fill="#d08a1e">-44.929</text>
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<rect x="90" y="30" width="25" height="47.3" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<text x="70" y="90.3" fill="#d08a1e">-25.000</text>
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<rect x="150" y="30" width="25" height="14.2" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<text x="130" y="57.2" fill="#d08a1e">-7.526</text>
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<text x="10" y="145" fill="#333">3 candele: distribuția se scurtează —</text>
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<text x="10" y="160" fill="#333">acumulare tăcută, deși încă sub 0</text>
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</svg></p>
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<h2 id="divergenta-pretvolum-aplicata-cu-acest-indicator">Divergență preț/volum aplicată cu acest indicator</h2>
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<p>Mecanismul divergenței preț/volum (de ce mai puțină "presiune" reală care
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susține un nou extrem de preț = mișcare fragilă) e explicat deja, cu
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diagramă proprie, în <code>06_divergente.md</code>. Ce e specific aici: în lecția asta
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divergența se caută în două straturi simultan — pe <strong>linia</strong> de volum
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(higher low pe volum vs. lower low pe preț, ca la orice indicator) ȘI pe
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<strong>histogramă</strong> (unghiul liniei de trend prin vârfurile histogramei, opus
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unghiului liniei de trend prin prețul), nu doar comparând două valori brute
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de volum ca în exemplul Tesla din <code>06_divergente.md</code>.</p>
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<h2 id="confirmare-vs-capcana-la-supportresistance-danu-cu-cifre">Confirmare vs. capcană la support/resistance — DA/NU cu cifre</h2>
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<p>Aceeași traversare a unui nivel de suport poate fi "acumulare reală" sau
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"doar preț care cade" — diferența se vede în histogramă, nu în linia de
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preț.</p>
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<p><strong>DA — histograma confirmă acumulare, te pregătești de long</strong></p>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 489" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">exemplu — daily</text>
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<text x="592" y="214.2" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">suport</text>
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<text x="194.0" y="244.2" fill="#333" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">low A</text>
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<text x="314.0" y="279.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">low B (mai jos)</text>
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<text x="24" y="309" fill="#555">histogramă (% schimbare volum)</text>
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<rect x="159.5" y="381.1" width="9" height="4.9" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="35.6" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="189.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="51.0" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="204.5" y="371.4" width="9" height="14.6" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="219.5" y="366.6" width="9" height="19.4" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="234.5" y="376.3" width="9" height="9.7" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="249.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="16.2" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="264.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="14.6" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="279.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="13.0" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="294.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="11.3" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="309.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="10.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="324.5" y="373.0" width="9" height="13.0" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="339.5" y="368.2" width="9" height="17.8" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="354.5" y="374.7" width="9" height="11.3" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<text x="194.0" y="452.0" fill="#d08a1e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">-31.500 (la A)</text>
|
||
<text x="314.0" y="411.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">-6.200 (la B) — mai scurtă</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="479" fill="#555">Minim nou pe preț, dar bara de distribuție la B e mult mai scurtă.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<p>Prețul face minim nou (B sub A), dar bara de distribuție la B e mult mai
|
||
scurtă decât la A — vânzarea reală s-a stins. Aștepți trigger-ul de preț
|
||
(candelă de confirmare), apoi intri.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>NU — histograma confirmă vânzarea, nu intri</strong></p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 489" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">exemplu — daily</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="220.2" x2="606" y2="220.2" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="592" y="214.2" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">suport</text>
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<line x1="44.0" y1="56.0" x2="44.0" y2="83.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="39.5" y="62.7" width="9" height="13.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="59.0" y1="69.5" x2="59.0" y2="101.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="54.5" y="76.2" width="9" height="18.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="74.0" y1="78.5" x2="74.0" y2="101.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="69.5" y="85.2" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="89.0" y1="78.5" x2="89.0" y2="119.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="84.5" y="85.2" width="9" height="27.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="104.0" y1="105.5" x2="104.0" y2="137.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="112.2" width="9" height="18.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="114.5" x2="119.0" y2="137.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="121.2" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="114.5" x2="134.0" y2="155.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="121.2" width="9" height="27.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="149.0" y1="141.5" x2="149.0" y2="173.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="148.2" width="9" height="18.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="150.5" x2="164.0" y2="173.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="157.2" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="179.0" y1="150.5" x2="179.0" y2="191.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="157.2" width="9" height="27.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="194.0" y1="179.7" x2="194.0" y2="220.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="189.5" y="184.2" width="9" height="22.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="209.0" y1="186.5" x2="209.0" y2="213.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="204.5" y="193.2" width="9" height="13.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="224.0" y1="164.0" x2="224.0" y2="200.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="219.5" y="170.7" width="9" height="22.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="239.0" y1="150.5" x2="239.0" y2="177.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="234.5" y="157.2" width="9" height="13.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="254.0" y1="150.5" x2="254.0" y2="182.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="249.5" y="157.2" width="9" height="18.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="269.0" y1="168.5" x2="269.0" y2="200.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="264.5" y="175.2" width="9" height="18.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="284.0" y1="186.5" x2="284.0" y2="218.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="279.5" y="193.2" width="9" height="18.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="299.0" y1="204.5" x2="299.0" y2="236.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="211.2" width="9" height="18.0" fill="#c00"/>
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||
<line x1="314.0" y1="224.7" x2="314.0" y2="265.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="229.2" width="9" height="22.5" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="329.0" y1="227.0" x2="329.0" y2="258.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="324.5" y="233.7" width="9" height="18.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="344.0" y1="209.0" x2="344.0" y2="240.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="339.5" y="215.7" width="9" height="18.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="359.0" y1="200.0" x2="359.0" y2="222.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="354.5" y="206.7" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<text x="194.0" y="244.2" fill="#333" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">low A</text>
|
||
<text x="314.0" y="279.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">low B (mai jos)</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="309" fill="#555">histogramă (% schimbare volum)</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="386.0" x2="606" y2="386.0" stroke="#888"/>
|
||
<text x="600" y="390.0" fill="#666">0</text>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="8.7" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="13.1" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<rect x="69.5" y="380.2" width="9" height="5.8" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
||
<rect x="84.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="16.0" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="11.7" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="381.6" width="9" height="4.4" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="20.4" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="17.5" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="383.1" width="9" height="2.9" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
||
<rect x="174.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="24.8" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<rect x="189.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="32.1" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<rect x="204.5" y="375.8" width="9" height="10.2" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
||
<rect x="219.5" y="372.9" width="9" height="13.1" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
||
<rect x="234.5" y="378.7" width="9" height="7.3" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
||
<rect x="249.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="17.5" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<rect x="264.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="23.3" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="29.1" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="37.9" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="51.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="13.1" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
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<rect x="339.5" y="386.0" width="9" height="5.8" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="354.5" y="381.6" width="9" height="4.4" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
||
<text x="194.0" y="433.1" fill="#d08a1e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">-22.000 (la A)</text>
|
||
<text x="314.0" y="452.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">-35.000 (la B) — mai adâncă</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="479" fill="#555">Bara la B mai adâncă decât la A: vânzarea s-a intensificat.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<p>Bara la B e mai adâncă decât la A — vânzarea reală s-a intensificat odată cu
|
||
prețul, nicio divergență. Cumperi aici pe simplul fapt că "e la suport" ar
|
||
însemna să prinzi un cuțit care încă cade.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="cum-tranzactionezi-efectiv-volumul">Cum tranzacționezi efectiv volumul</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>De ce urmărești volumul, concret:</strong> îți spune dacă mișcarea de preț pe
|
||
care o vezi e susținută de participare reală sau doar "de zgomot" —
|
||
diferența dintre a cumpăra un suport cu convingere reală în spate și a
|
||
cumpăra un suport care încă are vânzare activă dedesubt.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Ce faci când vezi acumulare/distribuție la un nivel important
|
||
(suport/rezistență/pivot):</strong> NU intri pe simpla acumulare. E un set-up —
|
||
aștepți un trigger de preț (candelă de reversal, break peste/sub high-ul
|
||
sau low-ul candelei de confirmare) înainte de a intra, exact ca la
|
||
divergență.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Trigger valid vs. prea devreme, cu cifre:</strong> vezi perechea DA/NU de mai
|
||
sus. "DA" = histogramă din ce în ce mai scurtă + candelă de confirmare +
|
||
break peste high-ul ei. "NU" = histogramă din ce în ce mai adâncă, indiferent
|
||
cât de "aproape de suport" arată prețul.</p>
|
||
<h3 id="exemplu-1-long-btcusd-weekly-acumulare-la-suport">Exemplu 1 — long, BTCUSD (weekly), acumulare la suport</h3>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 569" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">BTCUSD — weekly</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="56.0" x2="606" y2="56.0" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="592" y="50.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">21.000 — TP1</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="292.6" x2="606" y2="292.6" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="286.6" fill="#1a5fb4">16.450 — entry (break peste confirmare)</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="344.6" x2="606" y2="344.6" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="592" y="338.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">15.450 — SL</text>
|
||
<line x1="44.0" y1="79.4" x2="44.0" y2="102.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="87.2" width="9" height="7.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="59.0" y1="56.0" x2="59.0" y2="95.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="74.2" width="9" height="13.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="74.0" y1="66.4" x2="74.0" y2="100.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="69.5" y="74.2" width="9" height="18.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="89.0" y1="84.6" x2="89.0" y2="126.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="84.5" y="92.4" width="9" height="26.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="104.0" y1="102.8" x2="104.0" y2="126.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="110.6" width="9" height="7.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="119.0" y1="102.8" x2="119.0" y2="147.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="110.6" width="9" height="28.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="134.0" y1="131.4" x2="134.0" y2="173.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="139.2" width="9" height="26.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="149.0" y1="147.0" x2="149.0" y2="173.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="154.8" width="9" height="10.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="164.0" y1="147.0" x2="164.0" y2="188.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="154.8" width="9" height="26.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="179.0" y1="173.0" x2="179.0" y2="209.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="174.5" y="180.8" width="9" height="20.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="194.0" y1="186.0" x2="194.0" y2="209.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="189.5" y="193.8" width="9" height="7.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="209.0" y1="186.0" x2="209.0" y2="225.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="204.5" y="193.8" width="9" height="23.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="224.0" y1="211.0" x2="224.0" y2="238.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="219.5" y="217.2" width="9" height="7.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="239.0" y1="188.6" x2="239.0" y2="232.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="234.5" y="196.4" width="9" height="28.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="254.0" y1="173.0" x2="254.0" y2="204.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="249.5" y="180.8" width="9" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="269.0" y1="173.0" x2="269.0" y2="209.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="264.5" y="180.8" width="9" height="20.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="284.0" y1="193.8" x2="284.0" y2="235.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="201.6" width="9" height="26.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="299.0" y1="219.8" x2="299.0" y2="256.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="227.6" width="9" height="20.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="314.0" y1="240.6" x2="314.0" y2="282.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="248.4" width="9" height="26.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="329.0" y1="266.6" x2="329.0" y2="308.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="274.4" width="9" height="26.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="344.0" y1="295.2" x2="344.0" y2="336.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="339.5" y="300.4" width="9" height="20.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="359.0" y1="294.2" x2="359.0" y2="327.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="354.5" y="310.8" width="9" height="10.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="374.0" y1="274.4" x2="374.0" y2="313.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="369.5" y="279.6" width="9" height="31.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="389.0" y1="251.0" x2="389.0" y2="287.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="384.5" y="258.8" width="9" height="20.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="404.0" y1="251.0" x2="404.0" y2="277.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="399.5" y="258.8" width="9" height="10.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="419.0" y1="230.2" x2="419.0" y2="277.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="414.5" y="238.0" width="9" height="31.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="434.0" y1="214.6" x2="434.0" y2="245.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="429.5" y="222.4" width="9" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<text x="224.0" y="262.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">A: 17.500</text>
|
||
<text x="344.0" y="358.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">B: 15.600</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="389" fill="#555">volum — histograma % schimbare față de bara anterioară</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="466.0" x2="606" y2="466.0" stroke="#888"/>
|
||
<text x="600" y="470.0" fill="#666">0</text>
|
||
<rect x="39.5" y="466.0" width="9" height="1.0" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="457.0" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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||
<rect x="69.5" y="466.0" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="84.5" y="442.9" width="9" height="23.1" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="466.0" width="9" height="11.8" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="457.3" width="9" height="8.7" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="457.8" width="9" height="8.2" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="466.0" width="9" height="11.5" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="449.2" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="466.0" width="9" height="7.5" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="189.5" y="466.0" width="9" height="3.9" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="204.5" y="437.5" width="9" height="28.5" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="219.5" y="466.0" width="9" height="51.0" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="234.5" y="466.0" width="9" height="15.2" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<rect x="249.5" y="466.0" width="9" height="12.2" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<rect x="264.5" y="445.9" width="9" height="20.1" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="454.3" width="9" height="11.7" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="455.3" width="9" height="10.7" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="466.0" width="9" height="5.0" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="445.3" width="9" height="20.7" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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||
<rect x="339.5" y="466.0" width="9" height="12.1" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<rect x="354.5" y="433.1" width="9" height="32.9" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="369.5" y="458.1" width="9" height="7.9" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="384.5" y="466.0" width="9" height="18.7" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="399.5" y="466.0" width="9" height="8.7" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="414.5" y="461.4" width="9" height="4.6" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="429.5" y="466.0" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<text x="224.0" y="532.0" fill="#d08a1e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">-38%</text>
|
||
<text x="344.0" y="493.1" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">-9% (stins)</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="559" fill="#555">Risc 1.000, recompensă 4.550 → ~1:4.5.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<p>Histograma: la A (17.500) distribuție -38% față de candela precedentă; la B
|
||
(15.600, minim nou de preț) distribuție doar -9% — vânzarea reală s-a
|
||
stins, chiar dacă prețul a mai coborât. Linia verde de volum traversează
|
||
MA imediat după B. Trigger: candelă bullish de confirmare la ~16.100 →
|
||
intrare la break-ul peste high-ul ei, <strong>16.450 long</strong>. Stop-loss <strong>15.450</strong>
|
||
(sub B — dacă prețul reface minimul, acumularea era falsă). Take-profit
|
||
<strong>21.000</strong> (rezistența anterioară dinaintea căderii). Risc 1.000, recompensă
|
||
4.550 → risc/recompensă ~1:4.5.</p>
|
||
<h3 id="exemplu-2-short-spy-daily-distributie-la-rezistenta">Exemplu 2 — short, SPY (daily), distribuție la rezistență</h3>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 599" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">SPY — daily</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="56.0" x2="606" y2="56.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
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<text x="592" y="50.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">463.20 — SL</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="144.8" x2="606" y2="144.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="592" y="138.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">455.80 — entry short</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="274.4" x2="606" y2="274.4" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="592" y="268.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">445 — TP1 (consolidare anterioară)</text>
|
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<line x1="44.0" y1="351.2" x2="44.0" y2="375.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="39.5" y="358.4" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="59.0" y1="324.8" x2="59.0" y2="365.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="54.5" y="332.0" width="9" height="26.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="74.0" y1="324.8" x2="74.0" y2="352.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="69.5" y="332.0" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="89.0" y1="297.2" x2="89.0" y2="352.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="84.5" y="304.4" width="9" height="40.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="104.0" y1="260.0" x2="104.0" y2="320.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="264.8" width="9" height="39.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="257.6" x2="119.0" y2="282.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="264.8" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="251.6" x2="134.0" y2="282.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="258.8" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="149.0" y1="251.6" x2="149.0" y2="279.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="258.8" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="245.6" x2="164.0" y2="279.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="252.8" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="179.0" y1="245.6" x2="179.0" y2="276.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="252.8" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="194.0" y1="226.4" x2="194.0" y2="274.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="189.5" y="233.6" width="9" height="33.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="209.0" y1="195.2" x2="209.0" y2="240.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="204.5" y="202.4" width="9" height="31.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="224.0" y1="168.8" x2="224.0" y2="209.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="219.5" y="176.0" width="9" height="26.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="239.0" y1="147.2" x2="239.0" y2="183.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="234.5" y="154.4" width="9" height="21.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="254.0" y1="147.2" x2="254.0" y2="184.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="249.5" y="154.4" width="9" height="22.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="269.0" y1="170.0" x2="269.0" y2="197.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="264.5" y="177.2" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="284.0" y1="152.0" x2="284.0" y2="197.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="279.5" y="159.2" width="9" height="31.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="299.0" y1="119.6" x2="299.0" y2="166.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="294.5" y="126.8" width="9" height="32.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="314.0" y1="104.0" x2="314.0" y2="134.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="309.5" y="108.8" width="9" height="18.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="329.0" y1="70.4" x2="329.0" y2="132.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="324.5" y="108.8" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="344.0" y1="111.2" x2="344.0" y2="159.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="339.5" y="118.4" width="9" height="36.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="359.0" y1="147.2" x2="359.0" y2="180.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="354.5" y="154.4" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="374.0" y1="166.4" x2="374.0" y2="210.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="369.5" y="173.6" width="9" height="30.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="389.0" y1="185.6" x2="389.0" y2="210.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="384.5" y="192.8" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="404.0" y1="185.6" x2="404.0" y2="231.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="399.5" y="192.8" width="9" height="31.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="419.0" y1="216.8" x2="419.0" y2="242.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="414.5" y="224.0" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="239.0" y="123.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">A: 455</text>
|
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<text x="329.0" y="42.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">B: 462, shooting star</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="419" fill="#555">volum — histograma % schimbare față de bara anterioară</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="496.0" x2="606" y2="496.0" stroke="#888"/>
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<text x="600" y="500.0" fill="#666">0</text>
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<rect x="39.5" y="496.0" width="9" height="1.0" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="54.5" y="489.3" width="9" height="6.7" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="69.5" y="496.0" width="9" height="13.3" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="84.5" y="475.0" width="9" height="21.0" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="489.7" width="9" height="6.3" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="496.0" width="9" height="15.5" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="489.3" width="9" height="6.7" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="496.0" width="9" height="12.9" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="485.6" width="9" height="10.4" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="496.0" width="9" height="6.5" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="189.5" y="468.9" width="9" height="27.1" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="204.5" y="478.0" width="9" height="18.0" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="219.5" y="479.5" width="9" height="16.5" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<rect x="234.5" y="445.0" width="9" height="51.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="249.5" y="496.0" width="9" height="36.7" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
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<rect x="264.5" y="496.0" width="9" height="10.0" fill="#d08a1e"/>
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<rect x="279.5" y="480.3" width="9" height="15.7" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
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<rect x="294.5" y="476.6" width="9" height="19.4" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
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<rect x="309.5" y="491.5" width="9" height="4.5" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
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<rect x="324.5" y="483.8" width="9" height="12.2" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
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<rect x="339.5" y="458.5" width="9" height="37.5" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
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<rect x="354.5" y="496.0" width="9" height="13.9" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
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<rect x="369.5" y="496.0" width="9" height="11.2" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
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<rect x="384.5" y="496.0" width="9" height="9.8" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
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<rect x="399.5" y="496.0" width="9" height="8.2" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
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<rect x="414.5" y="496.0" width="9" height="6.5" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<text x="239.0" y="439.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">+25%</text>
|
||
<text x="329.0" y="445.8" fill="#d08a1e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">+6% (slăbit)</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="589" fill="#555">Risc 7.40, recompensă 10.80 → ~1:1.5.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<p>Histograma: la A (455) acumulare +25% (rally susținut real); la B (462,
|
||
maxim nou) acumulare doar +6% — cumpărarea reală se subțiază, iar linia
|
||
verde de volum coboară sub MA chiar în zona lui B. Trigger: shooting star cu
|
||
close 458, urmată de o candelă care sparge low-ul ei (456,80) → intrare
|
||
<strong>455.80 short</strong>. Stop-loss <strong>463.20</strong> (peste B, cu marjă — dacă prețul
|
||
reface maximul, distribuția era falsă). Take-profit <strong>445</strong> (suportul/
|
||
consolidarea anterioară). Risc 7.40, recompensă 10.80 → risc/recompensă
|
||
~1:1.5 — mai slab ca la exemplul 1, nu presupune același raport de fiecare
|
||
dată.</p>
|
||
<h3 id="exemplu-3-esec-acumulare-aparenta-care-nu-s-a-confirmat-nu-intri">Exemplu 3 — eșec: acumulare aparentă care nu s-a confirmat (nu intri)</h3>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 260 172" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:260px;height:auto;font:11px sans-serif">
|
||
<line x1="10" y1="30" x2="250" y2="30" stroke="#888" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<text x="215" y="25" fill="#666">0</text>
|
||
<rect x="20" y="30" width="25" height="78.3" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<text x="6" y="121.3" fill="#d08a1e">-40%</text>
|
||
<rect x="75" y="30" width="25" height="76.3" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<text x="61" y="119.3" fill="#d08a1e">-39%</text>
|
||
<rect x="130" y="30" width="25" height="72.4" fill="#d08a1e"/>
|
||
<text x="116" y="115.4" fill="#d08a1e">-37%</text>
|
||
<rect x="190" y="30" width="25" height="90.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<text x="176" y="133" fill="#c00">-46%</text>
|
||
<text x="10" y="152" fill="#333">3 bare aproape egale, apoi una mult mai</text>
|
||
<text x="10" y="165" fill="#333">adâncă — scurtarea nu s-a confirmat</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<p>Pe Boeing (weekly), la un minim aproape de suport, distribuția părea să se
|
||
scurteze (-40% apoi -39% apoi -37%, deci minim, aproape la fel) — suficient
|
||
de aproape încât, la prima vedere, să pară acumulare care începe. Dar
|
||
candela următoare a dus histograma la -46% (mai adâncă decât toate cele
|
||
anterioare) — nu s-a confirmat nimic, prețul a continuat direct în downtrend
|
||
fără reversal. Diferența față de Exemplul 1: acolo scurtarea era clară și
|
||
susținută (-38% → -9%, o treime); aici era marginală (-40% → -39% → -37%) și
|
||
s-a rupt la prima candelă următoare. Regula practică: o scurtare de 1-2%
|
||
între bare nu e semnal, e zgomot — ai nevoie de o diferență clară (cel puțin
|
||
de ordinul a jumătate din valoarea precedentă, ca la Exemplul 1) ca să
|
||
considerăm acumularea reală.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="volumul-pe-forex-nu-exista-pe-spot-folosesti-futures-ca-proxy">Volumul pe Forex — nu există pe spot, folosești futures ca proxy</h2>
|
||
<p>Pe perechile valutare spot (EURUSD, GBPUSD etc.) nu există volum real —
|
||
brokerii raportează doar volumul propriilor tranzacții, nu al pieței
|
||
globale, deci indicatorul de volum nu are ce citi acolo. Soluție: te uiți la
|
||
contractul de futures pe aceeași valută (ex. <strong>6E</strong> pentru EUR/USD, <strong>6B</strong>
|
||
pentru GBP/USD, tranzacționate pe CME) — acolo volumul e real, pentru că
|
||
marii participanți (băncile comerciale, care fac hedging valutar pentru
|
||
clienți) tranzacționează acolo. Divergențele văzute pe 6E se aplică, ca
|
||
citire, și pe perechea spot corespunzătoare — cu mențiunea că datele de pe
|
||
futures au un delay de ~15 minute față de live.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="confluenta-cu-alti-indicatori-si-pe-alte-time-frame-uri">Confluență cu alți indicatori și pe alte time-frame-uri</h2>
|
||
<p>Volumul funcționează cel mai bine împreună cu <strong>relative strength</strong> (vezi
|
||
<code>06_indicatorul_de_performanta.md</code>) și cu indicatorul <strong>Power</strong> (lecție
|
||
separată) — toți trei sunt indicatori non-corelați; când toți arată aceeași
|
||
divergență la un nivel important, semnalul e mult mai puternic decât oricare
|
||
izolat. Funcționează pe orice time-frame (5 min până la monthly), dar <strong>nu
|
||
de fiecare dată</strong> — pe multe simboluri (ex. sectoare ca XLF, IBB, în anumite
|
||
ferestre) nu apare nicio divergență vizibilă, iar pe time-frame-uri mai mari
|
||
(ex. 120 min în exemplele din training) indicatorul reacționează mai greu.
|
||
Nu forța un trade doar pentru că "ar trebui" să fie acumulare acolo.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="gotchas-practice-cele-mai-importante">Gotchas practice — cele mai importante</h2>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>Nu confunda "bară mai scurtă" cu "acumulare confirmată".</strong> Ai nevoie de
|
||
o diferență clară și susținută pe mai multe candele (Exemplul 1), nu de o
|
||
scurtare marginală de 1-2% care se rupe la prima candelă următoare
|
||
(Exemplul 3).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Nu tranzacționezi doar pe volum, izolat.</strong> Cele mai clare semnale din
|
||
training apar la confluență cu un nivel de suport/rezistență sau un pivot
|
||
deja cunoscut — volumul fără context de preț e un semnal mai slab.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Nu forța tranzacția când indicatorul tace.</strong> Pe multe simboluri/zone nu
|
||
apare nicio divergență sau acumulare vizibilă — nu înseamnă că trebuie
|
||
"găsită" cu orice preț, înseamnă că acolo indicatorul nu-ți dă un edge.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Volum mare fără trend clar de volum ≠ semnal.</strong> O singură bară mare
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(peste medie) nu spune nimic despre acumulare/distribuție — doar trendul
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histogramei pe mai multe candele o face.</li>
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</ul>
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<h2 id="referinte">Referințe</h2>
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<ul>
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||
<li><a href="https://chartschool.stockcharts.com/table-of-contents/technical-indicators-and-overlays/technical-indicators/on-balance-volume-obv">StockCharts ChartSchool — On-Balance Volume (OBV)</a> — mecanismul OBV și citirea de trend/divergență.</li>
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||
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/onbalancevolume.asp">Investopedia — On-Balance Volume (OBV)</a> — definiție, formulă, exemple de acumulare/distribuție.</li>
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||
<li><a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/fx.html">CME Group — FX Futures</a> — contractele 6E/6B/6J etc. folosite ca proxy de volum pentru Forex spot.</li>
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||
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/013015/what-difference-between-open-interest-and-trading-volume.asp">Investopedia — Open Interest vs Volume</a> — diferența exactă (și legătura) dintre volum și Open Interest la Futures.</li>
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||
</ul>
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||
<hr />
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<p><em>Notă: secțiunea "De ce histograma clasică nu ajută prea mult" (diagrama de
|
||
comparație), diagrama OBV generică, perechea DA/NU la suport, cele 3
|
||
exemple complete cu cifre și diagrame (BTCUSD cu candele + bare de volum
|
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lipite de candelele A/B, SPY cu candele + bare de volum, Boeing cu
|
||
histograma celor 4 bare) și secțiunea de gotchas sunt completări ale mele,
|
||
dincolo de ce spune explicit transcrierea — cursul arată live, pe multe
|
||
simboluri și time-frame-uri, cum arată acumularea/distribuția pe grafic, dar
|
||
fără cifre exacte de intrare/SL/TP sau un caz de eșec construit explicit.
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Cifrele din cele 3 exemple sunt plauzibile, construite pe scara reală a
|
||
instrumentelor menționate, nu extrase din transcriere. Diagramele de candele
|
||
cu entry/SL/TP (Exemplul 1 și 2) sunt generate cu <code>svg_candles.py</code>
|
||
(coordonate calculate din prețuri, scară corectă prin construcție); barele
|
||
de volum de sub ele sunt elemente SVG adăugate manual, aliniate pe x cu
|
||
candela corespunzătoare și cu înălțimea calculată exact proporțional cu
|
||
procentul citat în text (raport preț = raport pixeli).</em></p><nav class="pager"><a class="prev" href="07_determinare_trend.html">← 07. #7 — Determinarea trendului</a><a class="up" href="../index.html#03_MODUL_2">↑ index</a><a class="next" href="09_indicatorul_power.html">09. #9 — Indicatorul Power →</a></nav>
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