c28e585aa0
Userul a semnalat ca tabelele sunt greu de citit. Cauza: CSS-ul n-avea niciun stil de tabel, deci markdown-ul iesea fara chenare si fara fundal. Se repara o data, pentru toate cele 114 pagini. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ThN7ixZrowca8aTGrK1MUJ
1724 lines
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1724 lines
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<title>Q&A 29.07.2025 — divergența cu Momentum 28, intrarea în trei tranșe și semnalele unei corecții pe SPY</title>
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<nav class="crumbs"><a href="../index.html">Sumarizări</a><span class="sep">/</span><a href="../index.html#09_QA">Q&A</a><span class="sep">/</span><a href="INDEX_TEMATIC.html">index tematic</a><span class="sep">/</span>29.07.2025</nav><h1 id="qa-29072025-divergenta-cu-momentum-28-intrarea-in-trei-transe-si-semnalele-unei-corectii-pe-spy">Q&A 29.07.2025 — divergența cu Momentum 28, intrarea în trei tranșe și semnalele unei corecții pe SPY</h1>
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<p>Sesiune de ~1h20m, cu foarte puține întrebări. Așa că a vorbit mai mult el,
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pe ce vedea în piață. Au ieșit trei lucruri noi față de restul cursului:
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o <strong>strategie completă de divergență cu Momentum(28)</strong>, cu trigger pe
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indicator și nu pe preț, <strong>intrarea în trei tranșe</strong> pe buy doji weekly și
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lista de <strong>semnale care anunță o corecție</strong>. Mai jos sunt grupate pe
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subiecte, nu în ordinea din înregistrare.</p>
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<hr />
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<h2 id="semnalele-unei-corectii-pe-spy-ce-se-aduna">Semnalele unei corecții pe SPY: ce se adună</h2>
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<p>Nu a dat un trade. A arătat ce anume se adună ca să spună „sunt mari șanse
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să vedem o corecție".</p>
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<p><strong>1. Volum uriaș pe put-uri, cu expirare după 20 septembrie.</strong> Pe SPY vedea
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volume de 60.000-100.000 de contracte put, cu strike-uri în zona 630-620
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(„poate să ducă și 610"). Un contract de opțiuni înseamnă 100 de acțiuni,
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deci la SPY de ~600 de dolari un singur contract acoperă ~60.000 de dolari.
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Înmulțit cu 60.000 de contracte, e o poziție pe care retail-ul nu o poate
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face.</p>
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<p><strong>De ce data de expirare contează.</strong> VIX-ul măsoară volatilitatea așteptată
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pe <strong>30 de zile</strong> în viitor. Opțiunile puse la 35-50 de zile nu intră încă
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în calcul, deci nu se văd pe VIX. Când se apropie la 30 de zile de expirare,
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intră în calcul și VIX-ul poate face spike brusc.</p>
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<blockquote>
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<p>„Dacă măsoară pe 30 de zile în viitor, hai să ne ducem 35 de zile, 40, 50
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de zile în viitor, că nu o să se vadă pe VIX. […] Exact ca la poliție, să
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nu te ia radarul."</p>
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</blockquote>
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<p>Nu înseamnă că prețul așteaptă septembrie. Cine are put-ul câștigă mai mult
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dacă prăbușirea vine devreme (vezi theta decay, mai jos).</p>
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<p><strong>2. Evaluarea.</strong> Forward P/E pe S&P 500 aproape de 30, „foarte scump", la
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fel ca înainte de corecția din primăvară.</p>
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<p><strong>3. Structura pe grafic (60 de minute și 4 ore):</strong></p>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>double top cu al doilea vârf mai sus</strong>, oglinda double bottom-ului cu al
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doilea picior mai jos;</li>
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<li><strong>volumul scade</strong> pe toată urcarea, deși prețul urcă;</li>
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<li><strong>Power</strong> trece negativ. E cel mai sensibil indicator și primul care
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reacționează;</li>
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<li>pe aceeași candelă: <strong>sell doji</strong>, <strong>bear engulfing</strong> și o tentativă de
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evening star.</li>
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</ul>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">SPY — 60 min</text>
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<text x="30" y="64.3" fill="#c00">SL 638.35</text>
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<text x="30" y="96.8" fill="#1a1a1a">short 635.40</text>
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<text x="30" y="156.1" fill="#188a3e">TP 630.00 = 1.8R</text>
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<text x="24" y="249.2" fill="#555">volum — scade pe al doilea vârf</text>
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<text x="488.0" y="54.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">vârf 2: 638.35</text>
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<text x="516.0" y="130.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">sell doji</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="355" fill="#555">Vârful 1 636.65, vârful 2 638.35. Construit de mine; ale lui: zona 630-620 și semnalele.</text>
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</svg></p>
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||
<p><strong>Trade-ul, dacă îl iei (exemplul e construit de mine, pe structura descrisă de el):</strong>
|
||
intrare short la close-ul sell doji-ului, <strong>635.40</strong>. Stop-loss la
|
||
<strong>638.35</strong>, cel mai înalt high din ultimele 4 candele (regula lui pentru
|
||
sell doji, din alte sesiuni), adică vârful al doilea. Ținta e <strong>630.00</strong>, în
|
||
zona strike-urilor put pe care le vedea el. Riscul e 2.95, câștigul 5.40,
|
||
deci <strong>1.8R</strong>.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>4. Breadth, pe toți indicii.</strong> McClellan Oscillator în divergență bear și
|
||
sub linia de zero, iar Advance/Decline nu depășește vârful anterior. Pe Dow Jones
|
||
e divergență dublă, cu ambii indicatori. Aceeași poveste pe Nasdaq și
|
||
Russell.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>5. Ce lipsește încă: ATR-ul.</strong> „Nu mă mir să văd ATR-ul urcând în zilele
|
||
următoare. Asta e ingredientul care lipsește." Când ATR-ul face spike,
|
||
corecția devine probabilă, nu doar posibilă.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Plus sezonalitatea:</strong> august e de obicei o lună slabă.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Și de ce topurile sunt greu de prins</strong>, explicat pe loc:</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„La bottom e mai simplu. În general bottom-ul e foarte violent. […] La
|
||
top e o lăbăreală: tot mai face un top, tot mai consolidează."</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p>Topurile durează mai mult să se formeze decât bottom-urile. De aceea e mai
|
||
ușor să prinzi un bottom decât un top.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="buy-doji-weekly-intrarea-in-trei-transe">Buy doji weekly: intrarea în trei tranșe</h2>
|
||
<p>A anunțat că următoarea strategie predată e o formă de buy doji adaptată
|
||
pentru weekly și monthly. A spus și că majoritatea semnalelor pe acțiuni din
|
||
grupul de semnale vin de aici, <strong>cu intrare pe pullback</strong>.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Exemplul NKE:</strong> buy doji weekly după downtrend, după căderea de la tarife.
|
||
De la open-ul trigger-ului până la vârf: <strong>+36% în 14 săptămâni</strong>. „Un
|
||
început de position trading" — swing spre position.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Cum intri, exact:</strong></p>
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li><strong>1/3 din poziție la close-ul trigger-ului</strong> (vineri, la închiderea
|
||
săptămânii).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>1/3 cu limit la retestul de 1/3</strong> din înălțimea candelei. Iei high-ul și
|
||
low-ul și calculezi.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>1/3 cu limit la 1/2</strong> din candelă.</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 493" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">NKE — weekly</text>
|
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||
<text x="30" y="331.6" fill="#188a3e">1/3: 61.00</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="363.1" fill="#188a3e">1/3: 59.03</text>
|
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<text x="592" y="380.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">1/3: 57.95</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="445.2" fill="#c00">SL 53.90</text>
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<text x="390.0" y="465.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
|
||
<text x="570.0" y="160.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">+36% de la open</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="481" fill="#555">Preț mediu de intrare 59.33. Construit de mine; ale lui: +36% în ~14 săptămâni și cele trei tranșe.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<p>Cu cifrele din diagramă (construite de mine): 61.00 + 59.03 + 57.95 dau un
|
||
<strong>preț mediu de 59.33</strong>, cu stop-ul la 53.90 (cel mai jos low din 4
|
||
candele). Riscul pe poziția întreagă e 5.43 pe acțiune față de prețul
|
||
mediu, nu 7.10 cât ar fi fost cu totul intrat la 61.00.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>De ce nu aștepți direct 1/2:</strong> pentru că s-ar putea să nu mai vină
|
||
niciodată. Și de ce nu intri full la trigger: pentru că prețul mediu e mai
|
||
bun cu tranșe.</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Mai bine sunt cu un sfert de poziție într-o tranzacție care merge decât
|
||
să stau pe bară."</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="marubozu-ul-sta-in-picioare-cat-timp-nu-inchide-sub-open">Marubozu-ul „stă în picioare" cât timp nu închide sub open</h2>
|
||
<p>Pe BRK.B (240 de minute), după un buy doji weekly, prețul a retestat un
|
||
marubozu mare. Regula pe care a scos-o de aici:</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Un marubozu bull e valid cât timp prețul nu doboară open-ul lui.</strong> Poate
|
||
coborî sub 1/2, se poate apropia de open, dar nu are voie să închidă sub el.
|
||
Cifrele lui: <strong>open-ul marubozu-ului 467.42, low-ul retestului 467.65</strong>.
|
||
Adică 23 de cenți deasupra.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Ce e un FVG (fair value gap), cum l-a definit el aici:</strong> golul dintre
|
||
high-ul candelei dinaintea marubozu-ului și low-ul candelei de după. Prețul
|
||
tinde să revină să-l închidă.</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„De ce funcționează FVG-urile? Pentru că, de fapt, majoritatea sunt
|
||
marubozu care trebuie retestate la jumate."</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p>Adică FVG-ul și retestul la 1/2 al marubozu-ului sunt aceeași zonă văzută
|
||
din două școli diferite.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>DA</strong> — retestul coboară sub 1/2 (473.61), dar low-ul rămâne la 467.65,
|
||
deasupra open-ului:</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 345" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">BRK.B — 240 min (DA)</text>
|
||
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||
<text x="30" y="169.9" fill="#b06000">1/2 marubozu 473.61</text>
|
||
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<text x="30" y="207.1" fill="#c00">open marubozu 467.42</text>
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<text x="24" y="236.7" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="300.0" y="124.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">marubozu</text>
|
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<text x="380.0" y="230.7" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">low 467.65: open-ul ține</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="333" fill="#555">DA: retestul trece de 1/2 dar nu închide sub open. Ale lui: 467.42 / 467.65; restul construit.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<p><strong>NU</strong> — aceeași structură, dar o candelă închide la 466.20, sub 467.42. Din
|
||
acel moment marubozu-ul e invalidat și intrările de la 1/3 și 1/2 trebuie
|
||
închise:</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 404" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">BRK.B — 240 min (NU)</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="169.9" fill="#b06000">1/2 marubozu 473.61</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="207.1" fill="#c00">open marubozu 467.42</text>
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|
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<text x="24" y="296.2" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
<text x="300.0" y="124.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">marubozu</text>
|
||
<text x="476.0" y="290.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">invalid de la close-ul sub 467.42</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="392" fill="#555">NU: o închidere sub 467.42 = marubozu-ul nu mai stă în picioare. Construit de mine.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<p><strong>Ce faci când îl vezi:</strong> pui limit-urile la 1/3 și 1/2, iar stop-ul <strong>sub
|
||
open-ul marubozu-ului</strong>, nu sub un low oarecare. Dacă o candelă închide sub
|
||
open, ieși. (Plasarea stop-ului exact sub open e interpretarea mea a regulii
|
||
lui; în transcriere se vede doar că arată pe grafic unde l-ar pune.)</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Și contra-exemplul la FVG, pe același grafic:</strong> pe daily prețul a coborât
|
||
sub gap, adică „la revedere, nu mai merge FVG-ul" după regula celor cu FVG,
|
||
și de acolo a decolat. Regula de open-ul marubozu-ului a ținut, regula
|
||
FVG-ului nu.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="mai-multe-strategii-pe-aceeasi-miscare-brkb-daily">Mai multe strategii pe aceeași mișcare: BRK.B daily</h2>
|
||
<p>Același bottom pe BRK.B a dat semnal pe patru strategii ale lor:</p>
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>Strategie</th>
|
||
<th>Ce a văzut</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>MDSRT</strong></td>
|
||
<td>downtrend lung, oprire în suport, buy doji ca trigger</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>MP²</strong></td>
|
||
<td>pivotul mic trece peste pivotul mare; trigger după</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>M2D</strong> (daily + 60 min)</td>
|
||
<td>daily în buy, primul sell pe 60 min, apoi primul buy — cu o candelă <strong>înaintea</strong> MP²</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>Formă</strong></td>
|
||
<td>rounding bottom, care e de fapt un inverted H&S</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
<p><strong>Cifrele lui pe MP²:</strong> risc <strong>0.76</strong> (stop-ul pus cum cere MP²), până la
|
||
primul high <strong>1.58</strong>, până la al doilea <strong>2.21</strong>. 2.21 / 0.76 = <strong>2.9</strong>, „1
|
||
la 3 aproximativ". Transcrierea nu spune dacă sunt dolari sau procente. Cu
|
||
stop-ul pe swing low în loc de stop-ul MP², zice că ieșea „undeva la 1.12"
|
||
cu restul poziției, deci tot aproape dublu față de TP.</p>
|
||
<p>M2D-ul arătat aici e o <strong>versiune modificată</strong>: în loc de buy momentum
|
||
folosește buy doji, cu intrare la 1/3 sau 1/2 din marubozu. „E aceeași
|
||
chestie."</p>
|
||
<p><strong>P/E-ul pe BRK.B</strong>, verificat în treacăt: <strong>12.83</strong>, cu minimul pe 5 ani 7
|
||
și maximul 13.04. Adică e aproape de maximul propriu, deci supraevaluată
|
||
față de istoria ei. (Transcrierea are „1283" și „1304"; virgula e dedusă de
|
||
mine.)</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="double-bottom-cu-al-doilea-picior-mai-jos-cand-merge-si-cand-nu">Double bottom cu al doilea picior mai jos: când merge și când nu</h2>
|
||
<p>Pe scurt, pentru că mecanismul e explicat complet în sesiunea din
|
||
08.09.2025: la ruperea swing low-ului anterior retail-ul shortează,
|
||
„băieții cu bani" îi lasă să intre și apoi împing prețul în sus. Cei short
|
||
trebuie să cumpere ca să iasă: <strong>short squeeze</strong>. El îi spune <strong>the dump
|
||
before the pump</strong>.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Ce a adăugat aici e varianta care nu merge.</strong> Swing low-ul rupt nu mai e
|
||
suport. După ce prețul revine, primul test e <strong>exact acel nivel</strong>, care
|
||
acum joacă rol de rezistență:</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Totul devine resistant și resistance-ul devine suport. Aici a fost
|
||
suport, a trecut prin el și aici devine resistance: rejectează sau trece
|
||
prin el cap în brânză. Deci aici, în punctul ăsta, trebuie văzut."</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p><strong>DA</strong> — buy doji pe piciorul 2, apoi o închidere înapoi peste 621.00
|
||
(swing low-ul rupt). Cei short sunt pe pierdere și cumpără:</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 378" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">SPY — 15 min (DA: short squeeze)</text>
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<text x="30" y="166.8" fill="#188a3e">TP 624.60 (swing high)</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="224.4" fill="#b06000">swing low rupt 621.00</text>
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<text x="30" y="243.6" fill="#c00">SL 619.80</text>
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||
<text x="24" y="269.6" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
<text x="435.0" y="263.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">short-urile intră aici</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="366" fill="#555">DA: prețul recuperează 621.00 și cei short cumpără ca să iasă. TP = swing high-ul 624.60 = 3.4R.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<p>Intrare <strong>620.90</strong>, la close-ul candelei de trigger de după doji (doji-ul
|
||
închide pe la 620.30), stop <strong>619.80</strong> (sub low-ul din 4 candele), țintă
|
||
<strong>624.60</strong>, swing high-ul dintre picioare: <strong>3.4R</strong>.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>NU</strong> — aceeași intrare, dar revenirea se oprește la 621.05 și nicio
|
||
candelă nu închide peste 621.00. Vechiul suport a devenit rezistență și
|
||
stop-ul iese cu <strong>-1R</strong>:</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 429" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">SPY — 15 min (NU: suportul devine rezistența)</text>
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|
||
<text x="30" y="166.8" fill="#188a3e">TP 624.60 (swing high)</text>
|
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|
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<text x="30" y="224.4" fill="#b06000">swing low rupt 621.00</text>
|
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|
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<text x="24" y="320.8" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
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<text x="435.0" y="270.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">short-urile intră aici</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="417" fill="#555">NU: 621.00 a devenit rezistența. Stop-ul la 619.80 iese cu -1R. Construit de mine.</text>
|
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</svg></p>
|
||
<p><strong>Trigger valid, deci:</strong> nu buy doji-ul singur, ci <strong>închiderea înapoi peste
|
||
swing low-ul rupt</strong>. Dacă nu vine în câteva candele, ieși înainte de stop.
|
||
(Regula de „câteva candele" e completarea mea.)</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Ordinea în care se schimbă trendul</strong>, repetată pe un desen în Paint: întâi
|
||
apare <strong>higher swing low</strong>, abia apoi higher swing high. Double bottom-ul
|
||
cu al doilea picior <strong>mai sus</strong> e forma cea mai simplă a acestui higher
|
||
low. Cu buy doji sau buy hammer pe el, e „și mai strong".</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Divergența ascunsă</strong>, menționată: și când ambele minime ale prețului sunt
|
||
în urcare, dacă panta indicatorului e mult mai abruptă decât cea a prețului
|
||
(prețul la ~45°, indicatorul mult mai sus), e tot o formă de divergență.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="strategia-de-divergenta-cu-momentum28">Strategia de divergență cu Momentum(28)</h2>
|
||
<p>A predat-o complet, pe loc. E strategia din programul „basic", care
|
||
„funcționează fără nimic din ATM". Trigger-ul e pe <strong>indicator</strong>, nu pe
|
||
preț.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Formula</strong>, dată de el: <strong>Momentum(28) = close-ul de acum − close-ul de
|
||
acum 28 de candele.</strong> Pe 60 de minute, 28 de candele înseamnă câteva zile
|
||
de tranzacționare.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Regulile:</strong></p>
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li><strong>Divergența</strong>: pe long, prețul face lower low și momentum-ul face higher
|
||
low; pe short, prețul face higher high și momentum-ul lower high.
|
||
Indicatorul lor (PMF chart) o caută automat în ultimele <strong>60 de
|
||
candele</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Minim 5 candele</strong> între cele două puncte ale divergenței. „Dacă aveți
|
||
pe 3 candele divergența, nu e."</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Nivelul de trigger</strong>: pe long, <strong>cel mai înalt momentum</strong> din
|
||
intervalul divergenței; pe short, <strong>cel mai jos momentum</strong> din interval.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Trigger</strong>: candela pe care momentum-ul trece peste acel nivel (long)
|
||
sau sub el (short). Intri pe ea.</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
<p><strong>De ce urmărești asta.</strong> Divergența singură spune că mișcarea obosește,
|
||
nu când se întoarce. Trigger-ul pe momentum confirmă că forța s-a schimbat
|
||
efectiv. Mecanic, momentum-ul care trece peste cel mai înalt punct din
|
||
divergență înseamnă că prețul a urcat față de acum 28 de candele mai mult
|
||
decât în orice moment al căderii. Cumpărătorii au recuperat mai mult teren
|
||
decât la orice revenire anterioară din intervalul ăsta.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Exemplul long, cu cifrele lui:</strong> cel mai înalt momentum din interval era
|
||
<strong>-11.04</strong>. Alte vârfuri citite: -11.30 și -17. Trigger-ul a fost candela pe
|
||
care momentum-ul a trecut peste -11.04.</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 448" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">QQQ — 60 min (long)</text>
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<text x="592" y="58.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">TP 555.90 = 2R</text>
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<text x="592" y="199.8" fill="#1a1a1a" text-anchor="end">intrare 540.20</text>
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<text x="592" y="270.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL 532.35 (sub piciorul 2)</text>
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<rect x="575.5" y="74.5" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="594.0" y1="63.2" x2="594.0" y2="78.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="589.5" y="67.2" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="608.0" y1="56.0" x2="608.0" y2="71.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="603.5" y="60.1" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="146.0" y="264.1" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">low 1: 535.95</text>
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||
<text x="314.0" y="289.1" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">low 2: 532.95</text>
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<text x="426.0" y="248.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">trigger</text>
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<text x="24" y="316.0" fill="#555">Momentum(28) = close - close de acum 28 de bare</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="378.5" x2="606" y2="378.5" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="373.5" fill="#188a3e">-11.04 = cel mai înalt momentum din divergență</text>
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<circle cx="146.0" cy="405.3" r="4" fill="#b06000"/>
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<text x="146.0" y="423.3" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">-26.3</text>
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<text x="314.0" y="410.6" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">-19.1 (mai sus)</text>
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<text x="426.0" y="390.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">-7.8: trece peste</text>
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<text x="24" y="438.0" fill="#555">Prețul: lower low. Momentum: higher low. Ale lui: -11.04 și regula; prețul e construit.</text>
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</svg></p>
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||
<p>Pe diagramă (construită de mine, cu momentum-ul calculat din close-uri cu
|
||
formula lui): intrare <strong>540.20</strong>, stop <strong>532.35</strong> sub piciorul 2, țintă 2R
|
||
la <strong>555.90</strong>. Ținta de 2R e alegerea mea; el nu a dat o țintă, doar „bang".</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Exemplul short, pe SPXL 15 minute, cu cifrele lui:</strong> cel mai jos momentum
|
||
din intervalul divergenței, <strong>5.63</strong>. Pe candela următoare momentum-ul era
|
||
<strong>5.82</strong>, adică încă deasupra, fără trigger. Pe cea de după, <strong>3.60</strong>: „pe
|
||
candela asta intrăm short".</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 355" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">SPXL — 15 min (short, DA)</text>
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<text x="592" y="50.0" fill="none" text-anchor="end"></text>
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<line x1="24" y1="69.0" x2="606" y2="69.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="63.0" fill="#c00">SL 183.65</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="99.5" x2="606" y2="99.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="93.5" fill="#1a1a1a">short 180.60</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="160.5" x2="606" y2="160.5" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="154.5" fill="#188a3e">TP 174.50 = 2R</text>
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<line x1="120.0" y1="142.0" x2="120.0" y2="155.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="115.5" y="145.5" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="131.0" x2="134.0" y2="149.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="134.5" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="148.0" y1="119.0" x2="148.0" y2="138.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="143.5" y="122.5" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="162.0" y1="112.0" x2="162.0" y2="126.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="157.5" y="115.5" width="9" height="7.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="498.0" y1="130.0" x2="498.0" y2="144.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="493.5" y="133.5" width="9" height="7.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="512.0" y1="137.0" x2="512.0" y2="153.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="507.5" y="140.5" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="526.0" y1="146.0" x2="526.0" y2="159.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="521.5" y="149.5" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="540.0" y1="152.0" x2="540.0" y2="168.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="535.5" y="155.5" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="554.0" y1="161.0" x2="554.0" y2="176.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="549.5" y="164.5" width="9" height="8.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="568.0" y1="169.0" x2="568.0" y2="187.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="563.5" y="172.5" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="582.0" y1="180.0" x2="582.0" y2="193.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<text x="344.0" y="57.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">vârf 2: 183.45</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="233.0" fill="#555">Momentum(28)</text>
|
||
<rect x="24" y="241.0" width="582" height="80" fill="none" stroke="#ddd"/>
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<line x1="24" y1="271.0" x2="606" y2="271.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||
<text x="30" y="285.0" fill="#c00">5.63 = cel mai jos momentum din divergență</text>
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<circle cx="204.0" cy="248.7" r="4" fill="#b06000"/>
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<text x="204.0" y="239.7" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">13.6</text>
|
||
<circle cx="344.0" cy="260.8" r="4" fill="#b06000"/>
|
||
<text x="344.0" y="251.8" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">9.3 (mai jos)</text>
|
||
<circle cx="428.0" cy="276.7" r="4" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="428.0" y="294.7" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">3.60</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="345.0" fill="#555">Ale lui: 5.63 / 5.82 / 3.60 și regula. Prețul e construit de mine.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<p>Aici a pus și rezerva: „Poate să meargă? Nu știu. Poate retestează
|
||
marubozu-ul ăsta la 1/2 și cade înapoi."</p>
|
||
<p><strong>NU: trigger pe gap down.</strong> Pe un alt exemplu short trigger-ul a venit pe
|
||
o candelă deschisă cu gap down, iar trade-ul nu a mers. „De obicei nu merge
|
||
cu gap down." Motivul mecanic (completarea mea): gap-ul înseamnă că
|
||
vânzarea s-a produs peste noapte. Intri după mișcare, la cel mai prost preț,
|
||
cu stop-ul la aceeași distanță față de un preț mult mai jos.</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 376" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">SPXL — 15 min (short, NU: trigger pe gap down)</text>
|
||
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|
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<text x="592" y="68.0" fill="none" text-anchor="end"></text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="87.0" x2="606" y2="87.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
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<text x="30" y="81.0" fill="#c00">SL 183.65</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="129.5" x2="606" y2="129.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="123.5" fill="#1a1a1a">short 179.40</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="214.5" x2="606" y2="214.5" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
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<text x="30" y="208.5" fill="#188a3e">TP 170.90 = 2R</text>
|
||
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<rect x="115.5" y="163.5" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="149.0" x2="134.0" y2="167.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="152.5" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="148.0" y1="137.0" x2="148.0" y2="156.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="143.5" y="140.5" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="162.0" y1="130.0" x2="162.0" y2="144.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<text x="344.0" y="75.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">vârf 2: 183.45</text>
|
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<text x="428.0" y="157.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">gap down</text>
|
||
<text x="566.0" y="46.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">SL atins</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="254.0" fill="#555">Momentum(28)</text>
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<text x="30" y="335.2" fill="#c00">5.63 = cel mai jos momentum din divergență</text>
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<text x="204.0" y="260.7" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">13.6</text>
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<circle cx="344.0" cy="297.5" r="4" fill="#b06000"/>
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<text x="344.0" y="288.5" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">9.3 (mai jos)</text>
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<circle cx="428.0" cy="334.3" r="4" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="428.0" y="352.3" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">3.60</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="366.0" fill="#555">Același semnal, dar bara de trigger deschide cu gap: vânzarea s-a făcut deja. Construit.</text>
|
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</svg></p>
|
||
<p><strong>Ce mai trebuie știut:</strong></p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>Timeframe: minim 15 minute.</strong> Pe 3 minute „funcționează, dar o să
|
||
aveți foarte multe semnale false".</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Rate of Change e același indicator.</strong> L-a pus lângă Momentum, ambele cu
|
||
perioada 28: „identici". ROC-ul se calculează ca raport, nu ca diferență.
|
||
Liniile arată aproape la fel pe o fereastră scurtă, dar nu sunt identice
|
||
matematic, pentru că ROC-ul e procentual. (Nuanța e a mea.) Folosește ROC
|
||
pe Yahoo Finance, TradingView sau MT5 dacă n-ai Momentum.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Indicatorul poate folosi și volumul</strong> în loc de momentum: schimbi
|
||
input-ul și divergența se trasează pe linia de trend a volumului, nu pe
|
||
histogramă.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Pe aur, în consolidare, recomandă altceva:</strong> după divergența cu
|
||
momentum, caută <strong>sell doji-ul</strong> lor ca trigger, nu breakdown-ul
|
||
momentum-ului. Pe exemplul arătat, breakdown-ul de momentum dădea o
|
||
singură candelă de profit și nu atingea ținta.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<p><strong>De ce nu folosește stochastic, deși „funcționează":</strong> stochastic-ul se
|
||
calculează din preț, deci o divergență preț-stochastic compară prețul cu
|
||
el însuși. „De ce aș mânca mămăligă cu pâine?" Momentum-ul e tot din preț,
|
||
dar îl compară cu o dată fixă din trecut. Ce spune totuși despre celelalte:
|
||
divergența cu <strong>stochasticul funcționează</strong>, iar cu <strong>RSI „uneori"</strong>. Cea mai
|
||
de încredere rămâne divergența pe volumul lor.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Mai multe divergențe = semnal mai puternic</strong>, dar cu avertisment: nu cădea
|
||
în paralizia analizei („trebuie să am stochastic, momentum, volum, power,
|
||
relative strength…").</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="canalul-de-trend-cum-tranzactionezi-o-consolidare">Canalul de trend: cum tranzacționezi o consolidare</h2>
|
||
<p>În consolidare nu știi că ești în consolidare decât <strong>după</strong> ce s-au format
|
||
câteva swing-uri. De aceea regula lui are un prag:</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Ca să trasezi un canal de trend ai nevoie de 2 swing high și 2 swing low.
|
||
N-ai cum să trasezi un canal cu mai puțin."</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p><strong>Ce faci când îl vezi:</strong></p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>NU</strong> tranzacționezi a doua atingere a unei linii: canalul nu există încă.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>DA</strong> intri la <strong>a treia atingere</strong>, și doar cu trigger: buy doji sau buy
|
||
hammer la linia de jos, sell doji la cea de sus. Stop-ul e dincolo de
|
||
linie, iar ținta e linia opusă.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 320" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">GC (aur) — 15 min</text>
|
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<line x1="130.0" y1="189.8" x2="606.0" y2="55.1" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5"/>
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<line x1="24" y1="56.0" x2="606" y2="56.0" stroke="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="592" y="50.0" fill="none" text-anchor="end"></text>
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<line x1="24" y1="71.4" x2="606" y2="71.4" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="65.4" fill="#188a3e">TP 3346.90 = 1.9R</text>
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<text x="30" y="141.5" fill="#1a1a1a">intrare 3329.60</text>
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<text x="30" y="181.6" fill="#c00">SL 3320.50</text>
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<rect x="139.5" y="249.6" width="9" height="23.3" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="153.5" y="235.1" width="9" height="14.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="545.5" y="86.3" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="564.0" y1="67.0" x2="564.0" y2="88.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="559.5" y="68.8" width="9" height="17.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="578.0" y1="66.6" x2="578.0" y2="78.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="573.5" y="68.8" width="9" height="7.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="592.0" y1="73.3" x2="592.0" y2="78.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="587.5" y="75.5" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="606.0" y1="73.3" x2="606.0" y2="83.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="601.5" y="75.5" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="130.0" y="291.8" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">low 1</text>
|
||
<text x="200.0" y="160.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">high 1</text>
|
||
<text x="284.0" y="254.2" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">low 2</text>
|
||
<text x="368.0" y="112.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">high 2</text>
|
||
<text x="452.0" y="210.7" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">a 3-a atingere</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="308" fill="#555">Canalul se poate trasa abia după 2 swing low + 2 swing high. Construit de mine, la scară.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<p>Exemplul e construit de mine, pe aur, pe care a zis că „merge perfect pe
|
||
canale de trend": intrare <strong>3329.60</strong>, stop <strong>3320.50</strong> sub linia de jos,
|
||
țintă <strong>3346.90</strong> la linia de sus, deci <strong>1.9R</strong>. Pe 5 minute, în același
|
||
canal, arăta intrări multiple de buy doji și buy hammer la linia de jos.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>De ce funcționează canalele și wedge-urile:</strong> amplitudinea e mică și
|
||
limitele sunt vizibile pentru toată lumea. Ordinele se strâng la aceleași
|
||
niveluri. (Completarea mea: stop-ul e aproape de linie, deci R-ul e bun
|
||
chiar dacă ținta e mică.)</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Megafon (broadening):</strong> tot cu 2 + 2 puncte, doar că liniile diverg.
|
||
Dacă ai trei atingeri, poți estima unde vine următorul swing low prin
|
||
extinderea liniei spre dreapta.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="bull-flag-prima-tinta-retestul-apoi-flagpole-ul">Bull flag: prima țintă, retestul, apoi flagpole-ul</h2>
|
||
<p>A explicat de ce după breakout-ul unui flag prețul nu merge direct la
|
||
țintă:</p>
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li><strong>Prima țintă = înălțimea consolidării</strong>, proiectată de la breakout.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Retestul</strong>: prețul revine pe prelungirea liniei de sus (rezistența
|
||
devine suport) și îi scoate afară pe cei grăbiți. „Aici ziceai: mamă,
|
||
șortez."</li>
|
||
<li><strong>A doua țintă = înălțimea flagpole-ului</strong> („bățul de la steag").</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 499" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Bull flag — daily</text>
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<text x="30" y="65.0" fill="#188a3e">T2 120.00</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="155.0" fill="#188a3e">T1 114.00</text>
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<text x="30" y="215.0" fill="#b06000">rezistență 110.00</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="245.0" fill="#c00">SL 108.00</text>
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|
||
<text x="24" y="391.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
<text x="414.0" y="147.5" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">T1</text>
|
||
<text x="456.0" y="241.8" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">retest</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="487" fill="#555">T1 = 110 + consolidarea (4), T2 = 110 + flagpole (10). Intrare pe retest la 111.50. Construit de mine.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<p><strong>Intrarea sigură e pe retest, nu pe breakout</strong>: <strong>111.50</strong>, stop <strong>108.00</strong>
|
||
la mijlocul consolidării, țintă <strong>120.00</strong> = 110 + flagpole de 10, deci
|
||
<strong>2.4R</strong>. Cifrele sunt construite de mine; ordinea T1 → retest → T2 e a lui.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>ABCD-ul lor „nu e decât un bull flag care și-a atins target-ul de
|
||
profit"</strong> — la fel în short, pe bear flag.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Fără semnal de short nu shortezi linia</strong>: pe aur, prețul a atins linia de
|
||
sus a canalului și a făcut breakout după nouă ore, în loc să cadă înapoi.
|
||
Cine shortase „pe atingere" pierdea.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="optiuni-de-ce-nu-inca-si-ce-conteaza-daca-totusi">Opțiuni: de ce nu (încă) și ce contează dacă totuși</h2>
|
||
<p>A insistat să nu treacă nimeni la opțiuni înainte să stăpânească analiza
|
||
tehnică: „opțiunea e doar un vehicul". Dacă citești greșit graficul, nu te
|
||
ajută nimic. Mecanica pe care a explicat-o totuși:</p>
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>Noțiune</th>
|
||
<th>Ce a spus</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>Mărimea</strong></td>
|
||
<td>un contract = 100 de bucăți din activul-suport; nu poți cumpăra una</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>Theta decay</strong></td>
|
||
<td>cu cât te apropii de expirare, cu atât contractul pierde valoare</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>Prețul expirării</strong></td>
|
||
<td>mai departe în viitor = mai scump (exemplu: 1 $ la 3 zile, 6 $ la 2 luni)</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>Contul</strong></td>
|
||
<td>10.000-20.000 $, nu 1.000-2.000 $</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>Levier</strong></td>
|
||
<td>IWM la 223 × 100 = ~22.000 $ expunere pentru ~1.500 $; la +3% ai ~4.500 $ profit</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>Put/call volume</strong></td>
|
||
<td>nu înseamnă nimic singur — poate fi hedging</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
<p><strong>Theta, pe exemplul lui:</strong> put pe SPY cu țintă 620 și expirare la sfârșitul
|
||
lui septembrie. Dacă 620 vine într-o săptămână, „faci o căruță de bani";
|
||
dacă vine în ultima zi, aproape nimic.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Cum a citit opțiunile înainte de earnings</strong> (fără concluzie tranșantă):
|
||
<strong>Visa</strong>, cu IV 42%, preț 354.68, put volume 12.762 și put/call 1.21 („nu
|
||
văd nimic care să mă dea pe spate"). <strong>Boeing</strong>, cu IV 38% și call volume
|
||
mai mare decât pe put — el a spus „aproape dublu", deși cifrele citite pe
|
||
ecran (122.000 față de 90.000) dau 1.36× — deci „mai degrabă long". O companie mică a avut IV doar 26%, fără volum. „Când e ceva
|
||
pe earnings, se vede clar într-o parte sau alta."</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Pe Boeing a legat opțiunile de grafic:</strong> strike-urile aglomerate la ~240
|
||
corespund cu nivelurile tehnice. Primul e <strong>235</strong> (1/2 dintr-un marubozu
|
||
bear), apoi <strong>242.69</strong>, ultimul swing high. Și avertismentul practic:</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„El poate să ajungă până la 242, dar dacă ție nu ți-o închide și nu o
|
||
închizi manual, la revedere. Degeaba ajunge la 242, dacă după aia face
|
||
gap down."</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 279" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">BA — daily</text>
|
||
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|
||
<text x="592" y="50.0" fill="none" text-anchor="end"></text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="69.6" x2="606" y2="69.6" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="63.6" fill="#188a3e">swing high 242.69</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="138.8" x2="606" y2="138.8" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="132.8" fill="#b06000">1/2: 235.00</text>
|
||
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|
||
<rect x="125.0" y="129.8" width="10" height="13.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="145.0" y1="102.8" x2="145.0" y2="134.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="140.0" y="107.3" width="10" height="22.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
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<text x="220.0" y="54.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">marubozu</text>
|
||
<text x="310.0" y="250.9" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">suport</text>
|
||
<text x="490.0" y="55.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">atins intraday</text>
|
||
<text x="505.0" y="193.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">gap down</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="267" fill="#555">Ale lui: 235 și 242.69. Ziua atingerii și gap-ul sunt construite de mine.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<p>Ziua atingerii și gap-ul sunt construite de mine. Ideea e a lui: pe
|
||
opțiuni, ținta atinsă nu înseamnă bani încasați, iar aproape de expirare o
|
||
zi pierdută poate șterge tot câștigul.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="intermarket-si-alte-observatii-tehnice">Intermarket și alte observații tehnice</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>Relative strength nu are sens pe futures</strong> comparat cu SPY. Compari în
|
||
aceeași clasă: aur cu argint, crude oil cu heating oil (crack spread), grâu
|
||
cu porumb, cafea cu cacao. Pe valute, compari futures cu futures: yenul
|
||
(6J) cu indexul dolarului (DX), nu perechea USDJPY.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Yenul japonez seamănă cu graficul bondurilor americane.</strong> Motivul dat de
|
||
el: Japonia e cel mai mare cumpărător de datorie americană. TLT (ETF-ul de
|
||
bonduri 20+ ani) și futures-ul ZB (30 de ani) arată la fel, doar că
|
||
futures-ul merge 24 de ore, fără gap-uri. TLT a avut MDSRT la suport weekly
|
||
cu buy momentum și divergență pe Power și pe volum.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Forex se citește din futures:</strong> indexul dolarului face inverted H&S și
|
||
higher low în timp ce euro futures cade. Sunt în corelație inversă, deci un
|
||
buy pe dolar vine de obicei cu un sell pe EURUSD. Pe COT (weekly): la
|
||
double bottom-ul yenului, commercials erau net long.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Crude oil:</strong> pe monthly, volum instituțional masiv. Căderea anterioară s-a
|
||
făcut fără volum („the dump before the pump"). Pe weekly, pivotul quarterly
|
||
a fost rejectat de <strong>cinci</strong> ori, iar pe daily a apărut un inverted H&S cu
|
||
buy doji pe umărul drept.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Aurul:</strong> trei doji-uri monthly consecutive, volum instituțional negativ
|
||
pe monthly și weekly, și un shooting star urmat de doji pe weekly.
|
||
„Ori face sell doji și se duce în cap." O posibilă revenire doar dacă
|
||
prețul se oprește în pivotul weekly și în SMA 50 weekly.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Pivotul monthly se schimbă până la ultima zi.</strong> High-ul și low-ul lunii
|
||
sunt deja cunoscute. Close-ul nu e, iar el mută pivotul.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>RSI: pentru trend, nu pentru overbought/oversold.</strong> RSI peste 50 = trend
|
||
bull, sub 50 = bear. Pentru overbought/oversold, TICK-ul, care măsoară
|
||
presiunea pieței. (Și, de la unii mentori ai lui: cumperi când stochastic-ul
|
||
e <strong>overbought</strong>, nu oversold — trend puternic.)</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Deschiderile cu gap up în vârf</strong> sunt blow-off top, specifice pieței bear,
|
||
nu celei bull. În bull market deschiderile tipice sunt cu gap down, cumpărat.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Shooting star = sell trigger în lucru.</strong> Îl are în backtesting ca
|
||
„sell shooting star", inversul lui buy hammer, și vrea să-l adauge lângă
|
||
buy hammer, buy doji și sell doji.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>MBAP:</strong> de când a fost prezentată, toate semnalele au mers. Win rate ~75%
|
||
la 1:3 risk-reward. Rare, dar precise. În cădere se folosește și pe
|
||
contratrend: long când prețul iese sub Bollinger Band cu TICK-ul sub -1000,
|
||
short când revine în banda de sus. Și o variantă nouă, pe <strong>divergență cu
|
||
TICK-ul</strong>: prețul face vârf nou, TICK-ul se prăbușește.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>MP² e ideal pentru bottom-uri și topuri mari.</strong> După o cădere mare, pune
|
||
stop-ul <strong>sub ultimul swing low</strong>. Pe bottom-ul SPY din aprilie, cine a
|
||
intrat pe MP² și a stat pe termen lung a prins „30 și ceva la sută".
|
||
Înainte de MP² apăruse deja double bottom cu al doilea picior mai sus și
|
||
buy hammer.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="gotchas-patru-din-sesiunea-asta">Gotchas — patru din sesiunea asta</h2>
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li><strong>Un trigger pe gap nu e același trigger.</strong> Aceeași regulă de momentum,
|
||
pe o candelă cu gap down, a dat trade pierzător: intri după ce mișcarea
|
||
s-a consumat.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Nu shorta „atingerea liniei" fără semnal.</strong> Canalul și flag-ul arată
|
||
niveluri, nu intrări. Pe aur, linia atinsă a devenit breakout.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Volumul mare pe put-uri nu e un semnal de intrare</strong>, iar raportul
|
||
put/call nu spune nimic singur. E context, poate fi hedging.
|
||
Trigger-ul rămâne pe grafic.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Nu judeca o strategie după ora la care dă semnale.</strong> Povestea lui
|
||
despre cursantul care a renunțat la M2D pentru că semnalele veneau „prea
|
||
târziu" seara: piața nu vine la tine. Completarea mea: dacă programul nu
|
||
se potrivește cu timeframe-ul, schimbi timeframe-ul (weekly, daily), nu
|
||
strategia.</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="ce-am-lasat-afara">Ce am lăsat afară</h2>
|
||
<p>Începutul, despre discuri de vinil și copyright pe Facebook. Programarea
|
||
unui studiu de caz. Anecdotele despre profesorul de matematică din liceu,
|
||
John Maxwell și Les Brown. Cursantul care a cerut banii înapoi (păstrat doar
|
||
ca gotcha). Digresiunile despre jucării, active și pasive (Rich Dad Poor
|
||
Dad), sănătate, periatul dinților și citatul „oamenii supraestimează ce pot
|
||
face într-o zi". Discuția despre colegii medici, certificarea ASF (nu are
|
||
voie să dea recomandări de investiții, doar educaționale) și viza pentru
|
||
SUA. Anunțul despre partea a doua a workshop-ului de obiective. Denumirile
|
||
strategiilor de opțiuni (butterfly, straddle, collar), doar enumerate. Ideea
|
||
lui că adevăratele averi se fac din opțiuni și swing sau investiții, nu din
|
||
day trading, e menționată aici, fără detalii.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="ce-e-completare-a-mea-dincolo-de-transcriere">Ce e completare a mea, dincolo de transcriere</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>Cifrele lui, verificabile în transcriere:</strong> volumele de 60.000-100.000 de
|
||
contracte put, zona 630-620 (610), expirarea după 20 septembrie, VIX-ul pe
|
||
30 de zile, forward P/E ~30. NKE: +36% în 14 săptămâni. BRK.B: 467.42 /
|
||
467.65, MP² 0.76 / 1.58 / 2.21, P/E 12.83 (7 / 13.04, cu virgula dedusă de
|
||
mine). Momentum: formula close − close[28], lookback 60 de candele, minim 5
|
||
candele, -11.04 (și -11.30, -17), 5.63 / 5.82 / 3.60. Opțiuni: Visa (IV 42%,
|
||
354.68, 12.762, 1.21), Boeing (IV 38%, 90.000 / 122.000, 235, 242.69), IWM
|
||
223 / 1.500 / 4.500. MBAP ~75% la 1:3. Pivotul quarterly pe crude oil
|
||
rejectat de cinci ori. SPY +30% pe MP².</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Construite de mine:</strong></p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>Toate prețurile din diagrame</strong>, în afara celor enumerate mai sus. Nu
|
||
avem capturi din sesiune.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Trade-urile complete</strong> (intrare / SL / țintă / R) de pe SPY, NKE, double
|
||
bottom, Momentum, canal și flag. Stop-urile pe buy doji și sell doji
|
||
folosesc regula lui din alte sesiuni (4 candele).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Seria de momentum din diagrame</strong> e calculată cu formula lui din
|
||
close-uri, pe o istorie de 28 de bare dinaintea ferestrei afișate, aleasă
|
||
ca să reproducă valorile lui (-11.04, 5.63, 5.82, 3.60).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Țintele de 2R</strong> pe exemplele de momentum; el nu a dat ținte.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Stop-ul sub open-ul marubozu-ului</strong> și <strong>regula „ieși dacă nu recuperezi
|
||
swing low-ul în câteva candele"</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Explicațiile mecanice</strong>: de ce trigger-ul pe momentum confirmă, de ce
|
||
gap-ul strică trigger-ul, de ce canalul dă R bun.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Nuanța ROC vs. Momentum</strong> (raport vs. diferență), el i-a numit
|
||
identici.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Calculul prețului mediu</strong> pe cele trei tranșe și comparația riscului.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h2 id="referinte">Referințe</h2>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><a href="https://www.cboe.com/tradable-products/vix/">Cboe — VIX Volatility Products (VIX = volatilitatea așteptată pe 30 de zile)</a></li>
|
||
<li><a href="https://www.ig.com/uk/glossary-trading-terms/time-decay-definition">IG — What is Time Decay in Trading?</a></li>
|
||
<li><a href="https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/momentum-trading-strategies--a-beginners-guide-190905">IG — What is Momentum Trading? Momentum Trading Strategies</a></li>
|
||
<li><a href="https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/bull-flag-and-bear-flag-chart-patterns-explained-190816">IG — How to Trade Bull and Bear Flag Patterns</a></li>
|
||
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