45d5a04631
Sus: "Sumarizari / Modulul 2 / #6 — ...", cu modulul legat la ancora lui din index. In 09_QA apare in plus "index tematic", pentru ca acolo se cauta dupa subiect, nu dupa data. Jos: lectia precedenta si urmatoarea din acelasi folder, cu titlul lor, plus un link la index intre ele. Titlurile sunt scurtate pentru bara: prefixul "Modul 2 / " ar repeta modulul deja prezent in breadcrumb, iar la Q&A titlul intreg ocupa trei randuri pe telefon, deci ramane doar data. render_file() merge in continuare apelat pe un singur fisier, cum il folosesc agentii de sumarizare: vecinii vin dintr-un glob pe folder, nu dintr-un parametru nou. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01MtSTyTmt6AbCL9j5ajEDm1
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<title>Modul 3 / #4 — Strategia 2: MP² (pivoți dubli)</title>
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<nav class="crumbs"><a href="../index.html">Sumarizări</a><span class="sep">/</span><a href="../index.html#04_MODUL_3">Modulul 3</a><span class="sep">/</span>#4 — Strategia 2: MP² (pivoți dubli)</nav><h1 id="modul-3-4-strategia-2-mp2-pivoti-dubli">Modul 3 / #4 — Strategia 2: MP² (pivoți dubli)</h1>
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<h2 id="tldr">TLDR</h2>
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<p>MP² (denumit "MP pătrat" în curs — nu i se dă altă semnificație a numelui,
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altfel decât "doi pivoți") e a doua strategie 100% mecanică a cursului, după
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M2D (<code>03_MODUL_2/14_strategia_1_m2d.md</code>). Diferența cheie față de M2D:
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direcția nu vine din momentum-ul prețului, ci din poziția relativă a doi
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<strong>pivot points</strong> calculați pe două time frame-uri diferite — "pivotul mic"
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(time frame mai mic) și "pivotul mare" (time frame mai mare). Trigger-ul de
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intrare rămâne totuși pe preț: prima candelă care închide de partea corectă
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a pivotului mic. Cursul insistă că e cea mai bună strategie a lui pentru
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prins <strong>schimbări majore de trend</strong> (topuri și bottom-uri de piață), tocmai
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pentru că two-timeframe-pivot-cross e o confirmare mai puternică decât un
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pattern vizual izolat.</p>
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<p>Backtest citat (SPY): pe combinația daily/weekly cu trigger 60 min, 20
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tranzacții într-o fereastră scurtă (13.2–25.4), 18 din 20 au mers (90%),
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+22%/−1.42% (volatilitate mare, nu tipic). Pe combinația weekly/monthly cu
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trigger daily, 20 tranzacții pe ~16 luni (8.1.2024–3.4.2025), 15 din 20 (75%),
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+34% cu trail / +31% fără / −11% pierdere agregată.</p>
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<h2 id="cele-3-combinatii-de-pivoti-nu-fibonacci-ca-la-m2d-doar-3-trepte-fixe">Cele 3 combinații de pivoți (nu Fibonacci, ca la M2D — doar 3 trepte fixe)</h2>
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<table>
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>Pivot mic / pivot mare</th>
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<th>Trigger (time frame de intrare)</th>
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<th>Stil</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td>daily / weekly</td>
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<td>60 minute</td>
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<td>swing trading, uneori day trading</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>weekly / monthly</td>
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<td>daily</td>
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<td>swing / position trading</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>monthly / quarterly</td>
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<td>weekly</td>
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<td>position trading (luni/ani în tranzacție)</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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<p>Cursul avertizează explicit: combinația monthly/quarterly înseamnă să stai
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"2-3 ani în tranzacție" — puțină lume are răbdare pentru asta.</p>
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<h2 id="regulile-long-harta-m-a-p1-p2">Regulile — LONG (harta M / A / P1 / P2)</h2>
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<p><strong>M (set-up):</strong> pivotul mic trece deasupra pivotului mare (pe combinația
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aleasă — ex. pivotul daily deasupra pivotului weekly).</p>
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<p><strong>A (trigger):</strong> primul Buy Momentum (BIM) <strong>sau</strong> prima candelă verde după
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BIM care <strong>închide</strong> deasupra pivotului mic (care e deja deasupra pivotului
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mare, din M). Nu contează suportul/rezistența — doar linia de pivot.</p>
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<p><strong>P1 (plan):</strong>
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- Stop-loss = low-ul cel mai jos din ultimele 4 candele (low-slow), calculat
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înapoi de la candela de trigger.
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- <strong>Excepție gap:</strong> dacă trigger-ul vine cu gap, stop-loss-ul e low-ul
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candelei de trigger însăși, nu low-ul din 4 candele în spate — altfel
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riști un stop nerealist de departe. (Variantă avansată, doar cu experiență:
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jumătatea gap-ului.)
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- Take-profit 1 = aceeași distanță (entry − SL), risc/recompensă 1:1 la TP1.
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- Poziția rămasă merge pe bull trail (vezi mai jos).</p>
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<p><strong>P2 (money management):</strong> 2 poziții. Poziția 1 iese la TP1, poziția 2 iese
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la bear reversal (violarea bull trail-ului). Mărime: maxim 0.5% din cont pe
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cont prop, maxim 2% pe cont personal — 1% quan e volatilitate mare.</p>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 600 340" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="10" y="15" fill="#666">preț ↑ (SPY, ilustrativ)</text>
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<text x="450" y="220" fill="#888">575 — pivot mare</text>
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<line x1="20" y1="260" x2="280" y2="260" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="24" y="275" fill="#1a5fb4">570 — pivot mic</text>
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<line x1="280" y1="176" x2="560" y2="176" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="290" y="170" fill="#1a5fb4">582 — pivot mic</text>
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<circle cx="280" cy="225" r="5" fill="#555"/>
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<text x="290" y="300" fill="#555">M: pivot mic > pivot mare</text>
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<circle cx="150" cy="246" r="5" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="20" y="300" fill="#c00">NU — M neîndeplinit</text>
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<circle cx="340" cy="155" r="6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="335" y="140" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">585 — entry (trigger)</text>
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<line x1="300" y1="204" x2="560" y2="204" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="2 2"/>
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<text x="300" y="197" fill="#c00">578 — SL</text>
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<line x1="300" y1="106" x2="560" y2="106" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="2 2"/>
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<text x="300" y="99" fill="#188a3e">592 — TP1</text>
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</svg></p>
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<p>Linia neagră e prețul; liniile albastre/gri sunt cele două pivoturi
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(stepped — se recalculează periodic, deci "sar" la un nivel nou, nu curg
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lin ca prețul). Punctul roșu arată de ce nu orice close peste pivotul mic
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e valid — trebuie ca cel mic să fi trecut deja deasupra celui mare (M).</p>
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<h2 id="regula-sau-de-ce-nu-e-nevoie-de-un-bim-proaspat-de-fiecare-data">Regula "SAU" — de ce nu e nevoie de un BIM proaspăt de fiecare dată</h2>
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<p>Prima dată când apare acest nuanță — apare o singură dată, aici, pentru că
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e specifică acestei strategii (la M2D triggerul era mereu un BIM propriu-zis).
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Un student (Adrian) a întrebat de ce nu se intră direct pe primul BIM, fără
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să aștepți neapărat "prima candelă verde după BIM". Răspunsul, cu exemplu
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concret din curs: sunt două situații diferite, ambele valide, de-aia clauza
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"SAU":</p>
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<p><strong>Cazul 1 — BIM proaspăt chiar la momentul M:</strong> prețul era în Sell Momentum,
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pivotul mic trece deasupra pivotului mare, și chiar atunci apare un BIM nou.
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Intri pe acel BIM (sau pe prima candelă verde după el).</p>
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<div style="display:flex;gap:14px;align-items:center;flex-wrap:wrap"><svg viewBox="0 0 260 130" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:260px;height:auto;font:11px sans-serif"><text x="5" y="14" fill="#666">Cazul 1 — BIM proaspăt</text><line x1="10" y1="70" x2="250" y2="70" stroke="#888" stroke-dasharray="3 2"/><text x="12" y="65" fill="#888">pivot mare</text><line x1="10" y1="85" x2="130" y2="85" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-dasharray="3 2"/><line x1="130" y1="55" x2="250" y2="55" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-dasharray="3 2"/><text x="12" y="98" fill="#1a5fb4">pivot mic</text><polyline points="10,100 60,95 100,105 130,85 160,65 200,45 240,30" fill="none" stroke="#333" stroke-width="2"/><circle cx="160" cy="65" r="5" fill="#188a3e"/><text x="150" y="120" fill="#188a3e">BIM = trigger</text></svg><svg viewBox="0 0 260 130" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:260px;height:auto;font:11px sans-serif"><text x="5" y="14" fill="#666">Cazul 2 — deja în Buy, fără BIM nou</text><line x1="10" y1="80" x2="250" y2="80" stroke="#888" stroke-dasharray="3 2"/><text x="12" y="75" fill="#888">pivot mare</text><line x1="10" y1="95" x2="130" y2="95" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-dasharray="3 2"/><line x1="130" y1="50" x2="250" y2="50" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-dasharray="3 2"/><text x="12" y="108" fill="#1a5fb4">pivot mic</text><polyline points="10,90 60,70 100,55 130,50 160,42 200,35 240,25" fill="none" stroke="#333" stroke-width="2"/><circle cx="160" cy="42" r="5" fill="#188a3e"/><text x="65" y="113" fill="#188a3e">deja în Buy, fără BIM nou</text><text x="65" y="126" fill="#188a3e">trigger = close > pivot</text></svg></div>
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<p><strong>Cazul 2 — deja în uptrend, fără BIM nou:</strong> prețul era deja în Buy Momentum
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de câteva zile (de ex. peste weekend, pivotul weekly se recalculează luni),
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și pivotul mic pur și simplu "prinde din urmă" pivotul mare fără ca prețul
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să dea un semnal nou de Buy chiar atunci. Dacă ai fi așteptat strict un BIM
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proaspăt, n-ai fi avut niciodată trigger — pentru că nu mai apare unul (ești
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deja în trend). Aici, clauza "SAU" spune: ia prima candelă care închide
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peste pivotul mic (chiar dacă nu e o candelă de BIM "proaspăt") ca trigger.</p>
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<h2 id="exceptia-de-gap-la-stop-loss">Excepția de gap la stop-loss</h2>
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<p>Regula standard (low-ul ultimelor 4 candele) presupune candele consecutive
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fără sărituri mari. La un gap (intrare imediat după un gap up, de exemplu),
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mersul 4 candele în spate poate scoate un stop nerealist de departe.</p>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 395" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">ilustrativ — daily (gap up + BIM)</text>
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<text x="30" y="201.2" fill="#188a3e">SL corect 53.05 = low-ul candelei de gap (trigger)</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="300.6" x2="606" y2="300.6" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="294.6" fill="#c00">SL greșit 50.83 = 4 candele înainte de gap</text>
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<rect x="525.0" y="83.3" width="10" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="543.0" y="83.3" width="10" height="12.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="566.0" y1="56.0" x2="566.0" y2="106.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="561.0" y="66.5" width="10" height="29.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="440.0" y="227.2" fill="#c88" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">gap + BIM</text>
|
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</svg></p>
|
||
<h2 id="exceptie-pentru-topuribottom-uri-majore">Excepție pentru topuri/bottom-uri majore</h2>
|
||
<p>Pentru bottom-uri/topuri majore de piață (nu pullback-uri normale), cursul
|
||
recomandă explicit <strong>să nu</strong> folosești stop-ul standard de 4 candele — la
|
||
astfel de întorsături sunt retesturi dese, iar stopul standard scoate din
|
||
tranzacție prea devreme. Recomandare: stop la cel mai jos swing low (pentru
|
||
long) / cel mai sus swing high (pentru short) din toată mișcarea anterioară,
|
||
nu doar din ultimele 4 candele — asumat, e un stop mult mai larg (curs citat
|
||
un caz de 23% pe Nvidia), dar te ține în trade prin retesturi normale.</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 315" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">ilustrativ — daily (bottom major)</text>
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<text x="30" y="200.4" fill="#c00">SL 4 candele 85.15 (NU)</text>
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<text x="592" y="267.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">SL swing low absolut 80.00 (DA)</text>
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<text x="269.0" y="287.2" fill="#333" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">bottom major</text>
|
||
<text x="404.0" y="150.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">trigger</text>
|
||
<text x="464.0" y="233.3" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">retest</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="303" fill="#555">Retest-ul (84.30) scoate SL-ul de 4 candele; pe cel de la swing low-ul absolut nu-l atinge.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<h2 id="break-even-si-protectie-partiala-regula-spusa-verbal-nu-era-pe-slide">Break-even și protecție parțială (regulă spusă verbal, nu era pe slide)</h2>
|
||
<p>Cursul adaugă, în timpul sesiunii de întrebări, două praguri de protecție a
|
||
profitului (nu sunt pe slide-ul oficial, dar sunt reguli explicite ale
|
||
instructorului):
|
||
- Dacă prețul a trecut de <strong>60%</strong> din distanța estimată până la TP, muți
|
||
stop-loss-ul la break-even.
|
||
- Dacă a trecut de <strong>90%</strong>, protejezi la risc/recompensă 1:2 (adică muți
|
||
stop-ul la jumătate din profitul deja făcut, nu la intrare).</p>
|
||
<h2 id="regulile-short-oglindit">Regulile — SHORT (oglindit)</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>M:</strong> pivotul mic trece <strong>sub</strong> pivotul mare.
|
||
<strong>A:</strong> primul Sell Momentum (SLM) sau prima candelă roșie după SLM care
|
||
închide <strong>sub</strong> pivotul mic.
|
||
<strong>P1:</strong> SL = high-ul cel mai sus din ultimele 4 candele (sau high-ul
|
||
candelei de trigger, la gap); TP1 = aceeași distanță în jos; poziția rămasă
|
||
pe bear trail.
|
||
<strong>P2:</strong> identic cu long.</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 600 370" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="10" y="15" fill="#666">preț ↑ (SHORT, oglindit)</text>
|
||
<line x1="20" y1="128" x2="560" y2="128" stroke="#888" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="450" y="122" fill="#888">592 — pivot mare</text>
|
||
<line x1="20" y1="60" x2="280" y2="60" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="24" y="53" fill="#1a5fb4">598 — pivot mic</text>
|
||
<line x1="280" y1="206" x2="560" y2="206" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="290" y="200" fill="#1a5fb4">585 — pivot mic</text>
|
||
<circle cx="280" cy="128" r="5" fill="#555"/>
|
||
<text x="290" y="300" fill="#555">M: pivot mic < pivot mare</text>
|
||
<polyline points="20,38 90,83 150,60 210,105 280,128 310,173 340,240 400,285 460,308 520,324 560,341" fill="none" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="2"/>
|
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<circle cx="340" cy="240" r="6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<text x="350" y="258" fill="#c00">582 — entry (trigger)</text>
|
||
<line x1="300" y1="150" x2="560" y2="150" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="2 2"/>
|
||
<text x="300" y="138" fill="#c00">590 — SL</text>
|
||
<line x1="300" y1="330" x2="560" y2="330" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="2 2"/>
|
||
<text x="300" y="347" fill="#188a3e">574 — TP1</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<h2 id="bull-trail-bear-trail-recap">Bull trail / bear trail — recap</h2>
|
||
<p>Mecanismul complet (de ce candelă închisă, nu wick, contează pentru
|
||
violarea trail-ului) e explicat integral cu diagramă în
|
||
<code>03_MODUL_2/14_strategia_1_m2d.md</code> — aici se aplică identic: bull trail =
|
||
low-ul fiecărei candele care face un maxim nou (long); bear trail = high-ul
|
||
fiecărei candele care face un minim nou (short). Poziția 2 rămâne pe trail
|
||
până la bear/bull reversal (prima candelă închisă de partea greșită a
|
||
liniei de trail).</p>
|
||
<h2 id="confirmare-vs-capcana-care-e-diferenta-fata-de-m2d">Confirmare vs. capcană — care e diferența față de M2D</h2>
|
||
<p>Spre deosebire de M2D (unde triggerul e strict Buy/Sell Momentum, fără
|
||
pivoți), aici triggerul e legat de o linie de preț concretă (pivotul mic),
|
||
nu de un pattern de candele. Asta înseamnă că poți avea o candelă verde
|
||
puternică ("BIM") care totuși nu e trigger valid dacă M nu e îndeplinit
|
||
(pivotul mic încă sub pivotul mare) — vezi punctul roșu "NU" din diagrama
|
||
principală de mai sus. Regula practică: verifică întotdeauna ambele condiții
|
||
separat — poziția relativă a pivoților (M) și close-ul candelei față de
|
||
pivotul mic (A) — nu presupune că una o implică automat pe cealaltă
|
||
înaintea momentului exact al crossing-ului.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="exemplu-1-long-bottom-major-nvda-cifre-reale-din-curs">Exemplu 1 — LONG, bottom major, NVDA (cifre reale din curs)</h2>
|
||
<p>Bottom NVDA, octombrie 2022 (scală ajustată la split, pre-1:10). Prima dată
|
||
pivotul mic (weekly) trece deasupra pivotului mare (monthly) — venind după
|
||
un downtrend masiv. Cursul recomandă explicit, pentru un bottom de talia
|
||
asta, <strong>stop la swing low absolut, nu la 4 candele</strong>: distanța măsurată a
|
||
fost <strong>23%</strong> sub entry (low-ul intrării ~13.76–13.88). Ținta de profit
|
||
proiectată: <strong>~25%</strong>, atinsă în aproximativ <strong>9 săptămâni</strong> (~2.5 luni) — pe
|
||
combinația weekly/monthly, deci timp de reacție de ordinul lunilor, nu
|
||
zilelor.</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 496" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">NVDA — weekly (pre-split 1:10)</text>
|
||
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|
||
<text x="30" y="236.7" fill="#188a3e">TP ~+25% (17.25), ~9 săpt.</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="353.1" x2="606" y2="353.1" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="347.1" fill="#188a3e">entry ~13.80 (după M+A)</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="454.5" x2="606" y2="454.5" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="592" y="448.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL swing low absolut 10.63, −23%</text>
|
||
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<rect x="144.5" y="148.3" width="9" height="5.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="148.3" x2="164.0" y2="173.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="579.5" y="251.6" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="599.0" y1="244.0" x2="599.0" y2="273.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="594.5" y="251.9" width="9" height="11.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="434.0" y="334.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">M+A</text>
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<text x="24" y="484" fill="#555">Bottom oct. 2022. Din curs: entry ~13.80, −23%, ~+25% în ~9 săpt. Traseu construit; maro = SMA-20.</text>
|
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</svg></p>
|
||
<h2 id="exemplu-2-short-prins-aproape-de-un-top-spy-cifre-reale-din-curs">Exemplu 2 — SHORT, prins aproape de un top, SPY (cifre reale din curs)</h2>
|
||
<p>Cursul arată cum, deși nu prinzi vârful exact al unei mișcări, strategia te
|
||
duce foarte aproape de el la o schimbare de trend: vârful mișcării a fost
|
||
<strong>613</strong>, iar intrarea short (după ce pivotul mic a trecut sub pivotul mare)
|
||
s-a făcut la close-ul candelei de trigger, <strong>599.10</strong> — la mai puțin de 2.5%
|
||
sub vârf. Cursul nu citează stop-loss/TP exacte pentru acest caz punctual;
|
||
complet mai jos, pe regula standard (SL = high ultimele 4 candele), cu un
|
||
high estimat la 605 (marcat ca și completare a mea):</p>
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 399" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">SPY — 60 min</text>
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<text x="592" y="178.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL ~605 (estimat)</text>
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<text x="30" y="272.4" fill="#c00">entry short 599.10</text>
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<text x="30" y="366.8" fill="#188a3e">TP1 ~593 (estimat)</text>
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<line x1="104.0" y1="180.1" x2="104.0" y2="206.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="188.6" width="9" height="10.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="504.5" y="323.5" width="9" height="21.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="524.0" y1="339.2" x2="524.0" y2="364.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="519.5" y="344.5" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="539.0" y1="346.9" x2="539.0" y2="372.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="534.5" y="356.5" width="9" height="8.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="549.5" y="365.1" width="9" height="1.9" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="569.0" y1="346.0" x2="569.0" y2="371.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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|
||
<text x="239.0" y="46.0" fill="#333" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">613 — vârf</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<h2 id="exemplu-3-invalidare-stop-scos-de-spike-apoi-setup-valid-construit">Exemplu 3 — invalidare: stop scos de spike, apoi setup valid (construit)</h2>
|
||
<p>Nu orice prim trigger merge — cursul insistă mult pe asta (COP a fost dat
|
||
ca exemplu real de acest tip, dar fără cifre suficient de clare de reprodus
|
||
exact). Exemplu construit, pe scară similară, ca să arate mecanismul:</p>
|
||
<p>Long pe un titlu la 42.00, SL la 4 candele = 40.80 (distanță 2.9%). Un spike
|
||
de câteva minute atinge 40.75, sub SL — ești scos, deși trendul de fond
|
||
continuă. Al doilea trigger valid apare la 42.60, cu SL 41.40 (aceeași
|
||
distanță relativă) — de data asta ține, și prețul ajunge la TP1 = 43.80.</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 342" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">construit — 5 min</text>
|
||
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|
||
<text x="592" y="50.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">TP1 43.80</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="152.0" x2="606" y2="152.0" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="592" y="146.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">entry 2: 42.60</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="200.0" x2="606" y2="200.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="194.0" fill="#c00">entry 1: 42.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="248.0" x2="606" y2="248.0" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="592" y="242.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">SL 2: 41.40</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="296.0" x2="606" y2="296.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="290.0" fill="#c00">SL 1: 40.80</text>
|
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<rect x="39.0" y="232.0" width="10" height="4.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="62.0" y1="232.7" x2="62.0" y2="249.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="57.0" y="236.0" width="10" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="80.0" y1="239.8" x2="80.0" y2="253.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="75.0" y="243.2" width="10" height="5.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="98.0" y1="244.0" x2="98.0" y2="264.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<text x="278.0" y="314.0" fill="#c88" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">spike 40.75 — scos</text>
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<text x="188.0" y="182.9" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">1</text>
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<text x="404.0" y="138.7" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">2</text>
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<text x="24" y="330" fill="#555">Prima intrare scoasă de spike, a doua merge.</text>
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</svg></p>
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||
<h2 id="gotchas-practice-cele-mai-importante">Gotchas practice — cele mai importante</h2>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>Nu sări niciun semnal.</strong> Probabilitățile strategiei se calculează pe
|
||
eșantion complet — dacă ratezi un semnal (bere cu prietenii, ai fost
|
||
ocupat), aștepți următorul, nu intri pe amintirea celui vechi. Un singur
|
||
semnal ratat poate fi cel care ducea 7 tranzacții obișnuite la profit.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>La bottom-uri/topuri majore, nu folosi stop-ul standard de 4 candele</strong> —
|
||
vezi secțiunea dedicată mai sus; retesturile te scot prea devreme.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Volumul nu face parte din regulă</strong> — ajută ca filtru opțional (3+
|
||
candele de acumulare = semnal mai puternic), dar nu e condiție.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>După o serie de pierderi în parametrii normali ai strategiei, nu
|
||
renunța</strong> — dacă știi că strategia poate avea, de exemplu, 6 pierderi
|
||
consecutive și tocmai le-ai luat, following e mai probabil să apară
|
||
tranzacția care recuperează tot, nu momentul să te retragi.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
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<h2 id="cum-se-leaga-de-restul-cursului">Cum se leagă de restul cursului</h2>
|
||
<p>Buy/Sell Momentum (BIM/SLM) e definit integral, cu mecanism, în
|
||
<code>10_buysell_momentum_trigger.md</code> — aici e refolosit ca trigger de preț, dar
|
||
condiția de direcție (M) vine din pivoți, nu din price momentum ca la M2D.
|
||
Bull/bear trail, complet cu mecanism, e în <code>14_strategia_1_m2d.md</code>.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="referinte">Referințe</h2>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><a href="https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/how-to-trade-using-pivot-points-200717">IG — How to Trade Using Pivot Points</a> — mecanismul standard de pivot points, folosit ca bază tehnică pentru M/A.</li>
|
||
<li><a href="https://www.oanda.com/us-en/trade-tap-blog/trading-knowledge/importance-of-pivot-points/">OANDA — Importance of pivot points</a> — pivoții ca suport/rezistență matematic, nu desenat.</li>
|
||
<li><a href="https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/using-pivot-points-to-determine-market-sentiment">BabyPips — How to Use Pivot Points to Measure Market Sentiment</a> — pivotul ca prag bullish/bearish, ideea centrală din spatele M-ului din MP².</li>
|
||
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/riskrewardratio.asp">Investopedia — Risk/Reward Ratio</a> — calculul risc/recompensă folosit în exemplele de mai sus.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<p><em>Notă: toate diagramele SVG, secțiunea "Regula SAU" (structurarea explicită
|
||
DA/NU a celor două cazuri), excepția de gap ilustrată grafic, secțiunea
|
||
"Excepție pentru topuri/bottom-uri majore" (mecanism explicat vizual),
|
||
exemplul 3 (integral construit, cifre plauzibile) și completările de
|
||
SL/TP din exemplul 2 (marcate explicit ca estimate) sunt completări ale
|
||
mele. Exemplele 1 (NVDA) și 2 (SPY, cifrele 613/599.10) și cele două
|
||
seturi de backtest din TLDR folosesc cifre citate explicit în transcriere.</em></p><nav class="pager"><a class="prev" href="03_strategia_2_atmi.html">← 03. #3 — Strategia 2: ATMI (strategie de investiții pe termen lung)</a><a class="up" href="../index.html#04_MODUL_3">↑ index</a><a class="next" href="05_workshop_3_autosabotarea.html">05. #6 — Workshop 3: Autosabotarea, capcana întinsă de propria minte (top greșeli) →</a></nav>
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