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Userul a semnalat ca tabelele sunt greu de citit. Cauza: CSS-ul n-avea niciun stil de tabel, deci markdown-ul iesea fara chenare si fara fundal. Se repara o data, pentru toate cele 114 pagini. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ThN7ixZrowca8aTGrK1MUJ
1863 lines
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1863 lines
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<meta charset="utf-8">
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<title>Analiză zilnică / #4 — Pivoți și proiecții</title>
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<nav class="crumbs"><a href="../index.html">Sumarizări</a><span class="sep">/</span><a href="../index.html#08_ANALIZA_ZILNICA">Analiză zilnică</a><span class="sep">/</span>#4 — Pivoți și proiecții</nav><h1 id="analiza-zilnica-4-pivoti-si-proiectii">Analiză zilnică / #4 — Pivoți și proiecții</h1>
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<h2 id="tldr">TLDR</h2>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>Pivotul</strong> perioadei = (H + L + C) / 3 al perioadei <strong>încheiate</strong>. Pe
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daily te uiți la pivotul <strong>monthly</strong>, pe weekly la <strong>quarterly</strong>, pe
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monthly la pivotul <strong>de an</strong>.</li>
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<li><strong>Proiecția bull</strong> nu se reduce la „pivotul curent peste cel anterior":
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el o numește „bull" și pentru luni cu componente mixte sau chiar cu toate
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nivelurile mai jos (22.07). Distinge <strong>bull autentică</strong> (PPM, rezistență
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și suport toate mai sus) de <strong>bull-neutru</strong> (proiecție bull, dar
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rezistența mai jos — 02.03, 30.03, 06.04). Proiecția nu e trigger.</li>
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<li><strong>Deasupra pivotului</strong> = zona cumpărătorilor. Închiderea peste pivot e
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condiția din sfântul buy doji și din strategia MICI; <strong>reject sub pivot</strong>
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= „nu-mi place", cumperi mai jos, în suportul următor.</li>
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<li><strong>Pivoți divergenți</strong> (suport și pivot mai sus, rezistență mai jos) =
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<strong>trading range</strong>. Dacă totuși atinge rezistența, are șanse să continue.</li>
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<li><strong>Proiecție „inside"</strong> (range lunar mult mai îngust decât luna trecută) =
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<strong>compresie</strong>. Nu obligatoriu: poate ieși spre rezistența lunii trecute,
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dacă are volum.</li>
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<li><strong>Scărița pe pivoți</strong>: pivotul fiecărei perioade mai sus decât precedentul
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e structură bull, la fel ca higher highs / higher lows pe preț.</li>
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</ul>
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<hr />
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<h2 id="de-ce-urmaresti-pivotii">De ce urmărești pivoții</h2>
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<p>Pivotul e un nivel <strong>calculat</strong>, nu desenat cu ochiul: toată lumea care
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folosește floor pivots vede exact aceeași cifră. De aceea acolo se
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strâng ordine, iar reacția prețului la nivel spune ceva: dacă vânzătorii
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nu reușesc să închidă prețul sub pivot, cineva îl apără; dacă
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cumpărătorii nu reușesc să-l închidă deasupra, oferta de acolo e mai
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mare decât cererea.</p>
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<p>Ce decizie te ajută să iei:</p>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>direcția permisă</strong> — un buy doji deasupra pivotului monthly, în
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proiecție bull, e un trade; același buy doji sub pivot, rejectat, nu
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(10.09, 03.09);</li>
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<li><strong>unde intri</strong> — nu la primul suport, ci acolo unde pivotul coincide cu
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alte niveluri: S2, suportul monthly, locul crimei, gap-ul închis (21.08);</li>
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<li><strong>unde ieși</strong> — R1, R2 și rezistența lunii trecute sunt treptele țintei;</li>
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<li><strong>cât de mult aștepți de la lună</strong> — la proiecția inside (range lunar
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comprimat), probabil ținta e mai mică: deducție a mea, prin analogie cu
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range-ul îngust. Sesiunea din 10.09 spune doar „proiectie bull inside"
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/ „zonă de compresie", nu pomenește de ținte.</li>
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</ul>
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<blockquote>
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<p>„Proiecția e proiecție. Eu trebuie să am și trend, că degeaba am
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proiecție dacă n-am trigger. Pot să am proiecție bull și el să cadă."
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(Q&A <a href="../09_QA/15_2025-10-14.html">14.10.2025</a>)</p>
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</blockquote>
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<hr />
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<h2 id="termenii-o-singura-data">Termenii, o singură dată</h2>
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<table>
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>Termen</th>
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<th>Ce înseamnă aici</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>pivot (PP)</strong></td>
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<td>(High + Low + Close) / 3 al perioadei încheiate; nivelul de echilibru al perioadei noi</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>R1 / R2</strong></td>
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<td>rezistențele: R1 = 2×PP − Low, R2 = PP + (High − Low)</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>S1 / S2</strong></td>
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<td>suporturile: S1 = 2×PP − High, S2 = PP − (High − Low)</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>pivot monthly / quarterly / de an</strong></td>
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<td>pivotul lunii, trimestrului, anului; în sesiuni „suportul de an" și „pivotul de an" apar ca niveluri distincte (25.08: „l-a retestat suportul de an, momentan Reject-a și sub pivotul de an"). Echivalarea „suportul de an" = S1 pe pivotul anual e o <strong>interpretare a mea</strong>, neconfirmată de el</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>proiecție bull</strong></td>
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<td>eticheta pe care o dă platforma proiecției; de regulă vine cu pivotul mai sus, dar el o numește „bull" și când componentele sunt mixte și chiar când <strong>toate</strong> nivelurile sunt mai jos (22.07: „proiectie bul, culmea"; 23.07 confirmă și el toate nivelurile mai jos); nu se deduce doar din comparația pivoților</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>proiecție bull autentică</strong></td>
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<td>PPM (pivotul), rezistența și suportul toate mai sus decât perioada trecută (02.03)</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>proiecție bull-neutru</strong></td>
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<td>proiecție bull, dar cu <strong>rezistența mai jos</strong> (lower high); PPM-ul poate fi mai jos (02.03) sau mai sus (30.03, 06.04)</td>
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||
</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>proiecție bear</strong></td>
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<td>eticheta pe care o dă platforma proiecției; în sesiuni, el zice în 02.03 „automat PPM-ul este mai jos", dar nu e o definiție — în aceeași zi numește „bull-neutru" o lună tot cu PPM mai jos (rândul de mai sus), deci contradicția e a lui. În curs termenul are o definiție (<a href="../03_MODUL_2/02_zone_cerere_oferta_support_resistance.html">Modul 2 / 02</a>): „dacă PP-ul curent e sub cel anterior (proiecție bear), invers — două support-uri testate, o singură resistance", iar eticheta platformei vine din <code>Market Preview</code> („proiecția bull/bear calculată din raportul suport/rezistență al <code>RSV1ATM</code>, aceeași logică din lecția 2", <a href="../03_MODUL_2/11_construire_scanere_sf_byd_sld.html">Modul 2 / 11</a>); ce prag exact produce eticheta: <strong>neconfirmat în sesiuni</strong></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>proiecție inside</strong></td>
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<td>range-ul S1–R1 al lunii curente mult mai îngust decât al lunii trecute → compresie</td>
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||
</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>pivoți divergenți</strong></td>
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<td>suport și pivot mai sus decât luna trecută, rezistență mai jos → trading range</td>
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||
</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>reject pe pivot</strong></td>
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<td>codița trece de pivot, close-ul rămâne de partea cealaltă. „Sub pivot" = pivotul a fost rezistență; „deasupra" = a fost suport</td>
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||
</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>scărița</strong></td>
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<td>higher highs / higher lows, treaptă cu treaptă; pe pivoți: fiecare pivot mai sus decât precedentul</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><strong>buy doji</strong></td>
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<td>trigger: prima închidere peste high-ul unui doji, în max. 3 candele (vezi <a href="01_buy_doji_si_strategia_mici.html">#1</a>)</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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<hr />
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<h2 id="1-ce-pivot-pe-ce-grafic">1. Ce pivot pe ce grafic</h2>
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<p>Pivotul se calculează din perioada <strong>cu o treaptă peste</strong> timeframe-ul
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graficului, ca să ai un reper care nu se schimbă la fiecare bară
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(<a href="../03_MODUL_2/03_timeframes_set_up.html">Modul 2 / timeframes</a>):</p>
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<table>
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>Graficul</th>
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<th>Pivotul pe care îl citești</th>
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<th>Cum apare în analiza zilnică</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td>60 min</td>
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<td>weekly</td>
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<td>„în suport weekly", intrare de finețe</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>daily</td>
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<td><strong>monthly</strong></td>
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<td>„deasupra pivotului monthly", „proiecție bull"</td>
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||
</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>weekly</td>
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<td><strong>quarterly</strong></td>
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<td>„rejectat pe pivotul quarterly", „succesiunea pivoților quarterly"</td>
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||
</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>monthly</td>
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<td><strong>de an</strong></td>
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<td>„a ținut pivotul de an ca la carte", „sub pivotul de an"</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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||
</table>
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<p>Cu cât timeframe-ul e mai mare, cu atât mai mulți bani mari se uită la
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nivel, deci un reject sau un close pe pivotul quarterly ori pe cel de an
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cântărește mai mult. Atenție la termen: „timeframe-urile instituționale"
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sunt la el <strong>monthly și weekly</strong> (04.09: „cele două time frame-uri
|
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instituționale, însemnând monthly și weekly").</p>
|
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<hr />
|
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<h2 id="2-proiectia-bull-calculul-si-ce-astepti-de-la-luna">2. Proiecția bull: calculul și ce aștepți de la lună</h2>
|
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<!--SVG:bull-->
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 830 308" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, pivot monthly</text>
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<line x1="96.5" y1="236.0" x2="411.5" y2="236.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="90.5" y="240.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">pivot A 48.00</text>
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<line x1="411.5" y1="81.3" x2="726.5" y2="81.3" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="732.5" y="85.3" fill="#1a5fb4">R2 55.73</text>
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<line x1="411.5" y1="124.7" x2="726.5" y2="124.7" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="732.5" y="128.7" fill="#1a5fb4">R1 53.57</text>
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<line x1="411.5" y1="195.3" x2="726.5" y2="195.3" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="732.5" y="199.3" fill="#b06000">pivot B 50.03</text>
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<line x1="411.5" y1="238.7" x2="726.5" y2="238.7" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="732.5" y="242.7" fill="#c00">S1 47.87</text>
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<line x1="704.0" y1="92.0" x2="704.0" y2="112.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="699.5" y="98.0" width="9" height="8.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="719.0" y1="88.0" x2="719.0" y2="104.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<text x="449.0" y="219.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ține pivotul</text>
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<text x="539.0" y="110.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">R1</text>
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<text x="659.0" y="70.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">R2</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="296" fill="#555">Pivotul B = (H 52.20 + L 46.50 + C 51.40) / 3 = 50.03, peste pivotul A 48.00. Presupunem o proiecție bull, așa cum o dă platforma.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<p>Calculul, pas cu pas, pe seria construită:</p>
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li><strong>Luna A</strong> s-a încheiat cu <strong>high 52.20, low 46.50, close 51.40</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Pivotul lunii B</strong> = (52.20 + 46.50 + 51.40) / 3 = <strong>50.03</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>R1</strong> = 2 × 50.03 − 46.50 = <strong>53.57</strong>; <strong>R2</strong> = 50.03 + 5.70 = <strong>55.73</strong>;
|
||
<strong>S1</strong> = 2 × 50.03 − 52.20 = <strong>47.87</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>Pivotul lunii A era <strong>48.00</strong>; pivotul lunii B, <strong>50.03</strong>, e mai sus.
|
||
<strong>Presupunem o proiecție bull, așa cum o dă platforma</strong> — nu „deci e
|
||
bull" din comparația pivoților (vezi Termenii).</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
<p>Ce s-a întâmplat în luna B, exact ca în manual: pullback-ul din primele
|
||
zile se oprește la <strong>50.05</strong>, pe pivot; prețul atinge <strong>R1 în a 9-a zi</strong> și
|
||
<strong>R2 în a 17-a</strong>. S1 nu a fost atins. Exemplul nu compară R/S ale lunii B
|
||
cu cele ale lunii A, deci nu se poate numi „proiecție bull autentică" în
|
||
sensul din Termeni. Că într-o proiecție bull aștepți două rezistențe
|
||
atinse și un suport nu e o deducție a mea: cursul o spune direct — „dacă
|
||
PP-ul curent e deasupra celui anterior (proiecție bull), e mai probabil ca
|
||
prețul să testeze ambele resistance (R1, R2) și doar un support; dacă
|
||
PP-ul curent e sub cel anterior (proiecție bear), invers — două
|
||
support-uri testate, o singură resistance"
|
||
(<a href="../03_MODUL_2/02_zone_cerere_oferta_support_resistance.html">Modul 2 / 02</a>).
|
||
Bear-ul cu „două linii de suport și una de resistance" (02.03) e cazul
|
||
invers. Cu stocastic și volum în regulă, un pullback la pivot
|
||
e loc de cumpărat, nu de vândut.</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Dacă ne închidem deasupra pivotului și McLennal oscillator deasupra
|
||
linei de zero, posibil o să continuă urcarea. Altfel, probabil va fi un
|
||
bearflake" (10.09, pe indici)</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<h3 id="rutina-de-inceput-de-saptamana-luna-si-trimestru">Rutina de început de săptămână, lună și trimestru</h3>
|
||
<p>La fiecare schimbare de perioadă, rutina începe cu <strong>scannerele</strong>: buy doji
|
||
și sell doji, plus buy/sell momentum, pe monthly și weekly. Apoi citești
|
||
proiecțiile noi de suport–rezistență pe indici — monthly, iar weekly pe
|
||
<strong>60 min</strong> — și, la final de trimestru, și pe quarterly. Proiecția dă
|
||
<strong>bias-ul perioadei</strong>, în probabilitate de <strong>60%</strong>, nu 100%: te așază în
|
||
zona de suport–rezistență, dar nu e trigger.</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Deci, în primul rând, ca și rutină, aveți descanat buy doji weekly, buy
|
||
doji monthly, sell doji weekly și monthly și la fel buy momentum, sell
|
||
momentum dacă vă interesează weekly și monthly." (03.08)</p>
|
||
<p>„Ok, acum dacă ne-am aflat de exemplu ca și rutină în zonă de quarterly,
|
||
adică dacă s-ar termina trimestrul, e nevoie să mă uit la suport în rezist
|
||
în quarterly, să vă proiectiile cum arată pentru trimestrul următor."
|
||
(03.08)</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<h2 id="3-proiectia-bear-cu-short-pe-reject">3. Proiecția bear, cu short pe reject</h2>
|
||
<!--SVG:bear-->
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 858 308" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, pivot monthly</text>
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<line x1="726.5" y1="221.3" x2="731.5" y2="216.7" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
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<line x1="726.5" y1="226.0" x2="731.5" y2="230.7" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1"/>
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<line x1="96.5" y1="110.0" x2="411.5" y2="110.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="90.5" y="114.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">pivot A 52.00</text>
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<text x="732.5" y="111.3" fill="#1a5fb4">R1 52.13</text>
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<text x="732.5" y="157.3" fill="#b06000">pivot B 49.97</text>
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<text x="732.5" y="220.7" fill="#c00">S1 46.43</text>
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<text x="732.5" y="268.7" fill="#c00">S2 44.27</text>
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<text x="732.5" y="143.3" fill="#c00">SL 50.40</text>
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<text x="732.5" y="174.0" fill="#188a3e">intrare short 49.00</text>
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<text x="732.5" y="234.7" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 46.20 = 2R</text>
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<rect x="99.5" y="90.0" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="80.0" x2="119.0" y2="96.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="86.0" width="9" height="4.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="80.0" x2="134.0" y2="104.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="86.0" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="149.0" y1="86.0" x2="149.0" y2="104.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="92.0" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="86.0" x2="164.0" y2="116.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="92.0" width="9" height="18.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="179.0" y1="104.0" x2="179.0" y2="126.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="669.5" y="250.0" width="9" height="8.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="689.0" y1="246.0" x2="689.0" y2="264.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="684.5" y="252.0" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="704.0" y1="246.0" x2="704.0" y2="266.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="699.5" y="252.0" width="9" height="8.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="719.0" y1="248.0" x2="719.0" y2="266.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="714.5" y="254.0" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<text x="449.0" y="130.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">reject</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="296" fill="#555">Pivotul B 49.97, sub pivotul A 52.00. Presupunem o proiecție bear, așa cum o dă platforma. Rejectul sub pivot dă short-ul.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<p>Oglinda, pentru short:</p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Pivotul lunii A: <strong>52.00</strong>. Luna A închide la 48.60 → pivotul lunii B
|
||
<strong>49.97</strong>, sub 52.00. <strong>Presupunem o proiecție bear, așa cum o dă
|
||
platforma</strong> — nu „deci e bear" din comparația pivoților (vezi Termenii).
|
||
S1 <strong>46.43</strong>, S2 <strong>44.27</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>În a 3-a zi a lunii B, raliul atinge <strong>50.30</strong>, peste pivot, dar
|
||
închide la <strong>49.70</strong>, sub el: <strong>reject sub pivot</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>A doua zi închide la <strong>49.00</strong>, sub low-ul barei de reject (49.20) →
|
||
<strong>intrare short 49.00</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>SL 50.40</strong>, 10 cenți peste codița rejectului: dacă prețul trece de
|
||
acolo, pivotul nu a mai fost rezistență.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>TP 46.20 = 2R</strong> (risc 1.40), atins în a 12-a zi, aproape de S1.
|
||
Luna merge apoi până la S2: două suporturi atinse, nicio rezistență.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="4-pivoti-divergenti-trading-range">4. Pivoți divergenți = trading range</h2>
|
||
<p>Regula (03.09): luna curentă are <strong>suportul și pivotul mai sus</strong> decât
|
||
luna trecută, dar <strong>rezistența mai jos</strong>. Nivelurile se strâng din ambele
|
||
părți, deci luna nu are o direcție clară.</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„suport-ul mai sus, pivot-ul mai sus, resistance-ul da-i un pic mai jos,
|
||
deci e cumva un training range aici, dar dacă atinge resistance-ul ăsta,
|
||
are mari șans să ducă"</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p>Mecanic, de ce se întâmplă asta: R1 = 2×PP − Low și S1 = 2×PP − High, deci
|
||
R1 − S1 = High − Low al lunii trecute. O lună trecută care a urcat și a
|
||
coborât înapoi spre mijloc dă un pivot mai sus (media) și un range mai
|
||
îngust decât luna dinaintea ei.</p>
|
||
<h3 id="nu-luna-ramane-in-range">NU: luna rămâne în range</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:divergenti_nu-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 883 314" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, pivot monthly</text>
|
||
<line x1="411.5" y1="52.0" x2="411.5" y2="272.0" stroke="#bbb" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="80.0" x2="411.5" y2="80.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="90.5" y="84.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">R1 A 54.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="176.0" x2="411.5" y2="176.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="90.5" y="180.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">pivot A 50.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="272.0" x2="411.5" y2="272.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="90.5" y="276.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">S1 A 46.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="411.5" y1="101.6" x2="726.5" y2="101.6" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="732.5" y="105.6" fill="#1a5fb4">R1 B 53.10 (mai jos)</text>
|
||
<line x1="411.5" y1="161.6" x2="726.5" y2="161.6" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="732.5" y="165.6" fill="#b06000">pivot B 50.60 (mai sus)</text>
|
||
<line x1="411.5" y1="231.2" x2="726.5" y2="231.2" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="732.5" y="235.2" fill="#c00">S1 B 47.70 (mai sus)</text>
|
||
<line x1="104.0" y1="130.4" x2="104.0" y2="159.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="137.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="119.0" y1="113.6" x2="119.0" y2="144.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="120.8" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="134.0" y1="99.2" x2="134.0" y2="128.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="106.4" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="149.0" y1="92.0" x2="149.0" y2="113.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="144.5" y="99.2" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="92.0" x2="164.0" y2="120.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="159.5" y="99.2" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="179.0" y1="106.4" x2="179.0" y2="135.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="113.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="194.0" y1="120.8" x2="194.0" y2="152.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="189.5" y="128.0" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="209.0" y1="137.6" x2="209.0" y2="168.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="204.5" y="144.8" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="224.0" y1="154.4" x2="224.0" y2="185.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="219.5" y="161.6" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="239.0" y1="171.2" x2="239.0" y2="202.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="234.5" y="178.4" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="254.0" y1="188.0" x2="254.0" y2="214.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="249.5" y="195.2" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="269.0" y1="200.0" x2="269.0" y2="221.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="264.5" y="207.2" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="284.0" y1="195.2" x2="284.0" y2="221.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="279.5" y="202.4" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="299.0" y1="178.4" x2="299.0" y2="209.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="294.5" y="185.6" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="314.0" y1="161.6" x2="314.0" y2="192.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="309.5" y="168.8" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="329.0" y1="147.2" x2="329.0" y2="176.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="324.5" y="154.4" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="344.0" y1="135.2" x2="344.0" y2="161.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="339.5" y="142.4" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="359.0" y1="135.2" x2="359.0" y2="164.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="374.0" y1="149.6" x2="374.0" y2="178.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="369.5" y="156.8" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="389.0" y1="154.4" x2="389.0" y2="178.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="384.5" y="161.6" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="404.0" y1="154.4" x2="404.0" y2="178.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="399.5" y="161.6" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="419.0" y1="149.6" x2="419.0" y2="178.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="414.5" y="156.8" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="434.0" y1="132.8" x2="434.0" y2="164.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="429.5" y="140.0" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="449.0" y1="116.0" x2="449.0" y2="147.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="444.5" y="123.2" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="464.0" y1="106.4" x2="464.0" y2="130.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="459.5" y="113.6" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="479.0" y1="106.4" x2="479.0" y2="132.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="474.5" y="113.6" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="494.0" y1="118.4" x2="494.0" y2="149.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="489.5" y="125.6" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="509.0" y1="135.2" x2="509.0" y2="168.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="504.5" y="142.4" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="524.0" y1="154.4" x2="524.0" y2="188.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="519.5" y="161.6" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="539.0" y1="173.6" x2="539.0" y2="207.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="534.5" y="180.8" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="554.0" y1="192.8" x2="554.0" y2="219.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="549.5" y="200.0" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="569.0" y1="195.2" x2="569.0" y2="219.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="564.5" y="202.4" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="584.0" y1="176.0" x2="584.0" y2="209.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="579.5" y="183.2" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="599.0" y1="156.8" x2="599.0" y2="190.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="594.5" y="164.0" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="614.0" y1="137.6" x2="614.0" y2="171.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="609.5" y="144.8" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="629.0" y1="120.8" x2="629.0" y2="152.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="624.5" y="128.0" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="644.0" y1="108.8" x2="644.0" y2="135.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="639.5" y="116.0" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="659.0" y1="108.8" x2="659.0" y2="135.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="654.5" y="116.0" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="674.0" y1="120.8" x2="674.0" y2="154.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="669.5" y="128.0" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="689.0" y1="140.0" x2="689.0" y2="171.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="684.5" y="147.2" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="704.0" y1="156.8" x2="704.0" y2="188.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="699.5" y="164.0" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="719.0" y1="161.6" x2="719.0" y2="188.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="714.5" y="168.8" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<text x="464.0" y="84.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">nu atinge R1</text>
|
||
<text x="554.0" y="253.2" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">nu atinge S1</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="302" fill="#555">Suport și pivot mai sus, rezistență mai jos: luna B e un trading range.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Luna A avea pivot <strong>50.00</strong>, R1 <strong>54.00</strong>, S1 <strong>46.00</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>Luna A: high 53.50, low 48.10, close 50.20 → luna B: pivot <strong>50.60</strong>
|
||
(mai sus), S1 <strong>47.70</strong> (mai sus), R1 <strong>53.10</strong> (mai jos).</li>
|
||
<li>Luna B urcă până la <strong>52.90</strong> și coboară până la <strong>48.20</strong>: nu atinge nici
|
||
R1, nici S1. Cine a cumpărat „breakout-ul" la 52.90 a cumpărat vârful
|
||
range-ului.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h3 id="da-atinge-rezistenta-si-continua">DA: atinge rezistența și continuă</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:divergenti_da-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 876 388" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, pivot monthly</text>
|
||
<line x1="411.5" y1="52.0" x2="411.5" y2="346.4" stroke="#bbb" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
|
||
<line x1="726.5" y1="176.0" x2="731.5" y2="171.4" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="726.5" y1="180.8" x2="731.5" y2="185.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="154.4" x2="411.5" y2="154.4" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="90.5" y="158.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">R1 A 54.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="250.4" x2="411.5" y2="250.4" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="90.5" y="254.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">pivot A 50.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="346.4" x2="411.5" y2="346.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="90.5" y="350.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">S1 A 46.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="411.5" y1="176.0" x2="726.5" y2="176.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="732.5" y="175.4" fill="#1a5fb4">R1 B 53.10</text>
|
||
<line x1="411.5" y1="236.0" x2="726.5" y2="236.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="732.5" y="240.0" fill="#b06000">pivot B 50.60</text>
|
||
<line x1="411.5" y1="305.6" x2="726.5" y2="305.6" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="732.5" y="309.6" fill="#c00">S1 B 47.70</text>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="180.8" x2="726.5" y2="180.8" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="732.5" y="189.4" fill="#c00">SL 52.90</text>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="156.8" x2="726.5" y2="156.8" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="732.5" y="160.8" fill="#188a3e">intrare 53.90</text>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="106.4" x2="726.5" y2="106.4" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="732.5" y="110.4" fill="#1a5fb4">TP = R2 B 56.00 = 2.1R</text>
|
||
<line x1="104.0" y1="204.8" x2="104.0" y2="233.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="99.5" y="212.0" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="119.0" y1="188.0" x2="119.0" y2="219.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="114.5" y="195.2" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="134.0" y1="173.6" x2="134.0" y2="202.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="129.5" y="180.8" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="149.0" y1="166.4" x2="149.0" y2="188.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="144.5" y="173.6" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="164.0" y1="166.4" x2="164.0" y2="195.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="159.5" y="173.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="179.0" y1="180.8" x2="179.0" y2="209.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="188.0" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="629.0" y1="106.4" x2="629.0" y2="128.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="674.0" y1="87.2" x2="674.0" y2="108.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="669.5" y="94.4" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="684.5" y="92.0" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="704.0" y1="84.8" x2="704.0" y2="106.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="699.5" y="92.0" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="719.0" y1="80.0" x2="719.0" y2="106.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<text x="479.0" y="133.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">close peste R1 B</text>
|
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<text x="524.0" y="200.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">retest</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="376" fill="#555">Aceeași lună A. De data asta luna B atinge R1 (53.10) și merge spre R2.</text>
|
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</svg></p>
|
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<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<p>Aceeași lună A, deci aceleași niveluri. De data asta:</p>
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li>În a 5-a zi luna B <strong>închide la 53.40, peste R1 B (53.10)</strong>. Range-ul
|
||
s-a rupt în sus.</li>
|
||
<li>Retest: codița coboară la <strong>53.10</strong>, exact pe R1, close-ul rămâne peste.</li>
|
||
<li>Candela din dreapta închide la <strong>53.90</strong>, peste high-ul retestului →
|
||
<strong>intrare 53.90</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>SL 52.90</strong>, sub codița retestului. Sub R1, breakout-ul a eșuat și ești
|
||
înapoi în range.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>TP = R2 B 56.00 = 2.1R</strong> (risc 1.00). Pe drum trece de <strong>54.00</strong>, R1-ul
|
||
lunii trecute: prima țintă intermediară.</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
<p>„Proiecție neutră" (03.09: „nu e o proiecție bull, nu e o proiecție bear")
|
||
nu apare cu acest nume în sesiuni; cel mai apropiat termen al lui e
|
||
<strong>bull-neutru</strong>. Nu e ce spune cursul (Modul 2: PP curent peste PP
|
||
anterior, dar R2 mai jos): în sesiuni, bull-neutru e o proiecție bull cu
|
||
<strong>rezistența mai jos</strong> („lower high"), iar PPM-ul poate fi <strong>mai jos</strong>
|
||
decât luna trecută — 02.03: „PPM-ul ... acum este mai jos decât
|
||
februarie ... resistance-ul este mai jos" — sau <strong>mai sus</strong> — 30.03:
|
||
„pivotul este mai sus, resistance-ul mai jos, suportul mai jos, dar este
|
||
proiecție [bull]". Ce aștepți de la o asemenea proiecție nu reiese din
|
||
sesiuni. Geometric, e aproape de pivoții divergenți de mai sus, deci
|
||
probabil se tratează la fel, ca range — deducția mea, el nu o spune.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="5-proiectie-inside-compresie">5. Proiecție „inside" = compresie</h2>
|
||
<p>Regula (10.09): dacă distanța suport–rezistență din luna curentă e mult
|
||
mai mică decât luna trecută, proiecția anunță <strong>compresie</strong>, nu
|
||
expansiune.</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„e proiectie bull inside, pentru că dacă unui resistance-ul din luna
|
||
asta nu e foarte expandat față de suport."</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<h3 id="cum-arata-compresia">Cum arată compresia</h3>
|
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<!--SVG:inside_nu-->
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 830 438" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, pivot monthly</text>
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<line x1="96.5" y1="80.0" x2="411.5" y2="80.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="90.5" y="84.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">R1 A 55.00</text>
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<line x1="96.5" y1="190.0" x2="411.5" y2="190.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="90.5" y="194.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">pivot A 50.00</text>
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<line x1="96.5" y1="300.0" x2="411.5" y2="300.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="90.5" y="304.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">S1 A 45.00</text>
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<line x1="411.5" y1="146.4" x2="726.5" y2="146.4" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="732.5" y="150.4" fill="#1a5fb4">R1 B 51.98</text>
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<line x1="411.5" y1="199.2" x2="726.5" y2="199.2" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="732.5" y="203.2" fill="#c00">S1 B 49.58</text>
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<rect x="99.5" y="176.8" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="160.3" x2="119.0" y2="182.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="165.8" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="151.5" x2="134.0" y2="171.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="157.0" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="149.0" y1="151.5" x2="149.0" y2="173.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="157.0" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="162.5" x2="164.0" y2="186.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="168.0" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="179.0" y1="175.7" x2="179.0" y2="197.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="181.2" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="194.0" y1="186.7" x2="194.0" y2="204.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="189.5" y="192.2" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="209.0" y1="182.3" x2="209.0" y2="204.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="204.5" y="187.8" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="224.0" y1="169.1" x2="224.0" y2="193.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="219.5" y="174.6" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="239.0" y1="158.1" x2="239.0" y2="180.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="234.5" y="163.6" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="254.0" y1="153.7" x2="254.0" y2="169.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="249.5" y="159.2" width="9" height="4.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="269.0" y1="153.7" x2="269.0" y2="175.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="264.5" y="159.2" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="284.0" y1="164.7" x2="284.0" y2="188.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="279.5" y="170.2" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="299.0" y1="177.9" x2="299.0" y2="199.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="294.5" y="183.4" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="314.0" y1="180.1" x2="314.0" y2="199.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="309.5" y="185.6" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="329.0" y1="166.9" x2="329.0" y2="191.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="324.5" y="172.4" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="344.0" y1="158.1" x2="344.0" y2="177.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="359.0" y1="158.1" x2="359.0" y2="180.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="354.5" y="163.6" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="374.0" y1="169.1" x2="374.0" y2="188.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="369.5" y="174.6" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="389.0" y1="171.3" x2="389.0" y2="188.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="384.5" y="176.8" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="404.0" y1="164.7" x2="404.0" y2="182.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="399.5" y="170.2" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="419.0" y1="165.8" x2="419.0" y2="183.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="414.5" y="170.2" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="434.0" y1="163.6" x2="434.0" y2="183.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="429.5" y="168.0" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="449.0" y1="152.6" x2="449.0" y2="172.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="444.5" y="157.0" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="464.0" y1="152.6" x2="464.0" y2="168.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="459.5" y="157.0" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="479.0" y1="159.2" x2="479.0" y2="181.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="474.5" y="163.6" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="494.0" y1="172.4" x2="494.0" y2="190.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="489.5" y="176.8" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="509.0" y1="174.6" x2="509.0" y2="190.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="504.5" y="179.0" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="524.0" y1="165.8" x2="524.0" y2="183.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="519.5" y="170.2" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="539.0" y1="157.0" x2="539.0" y2="174.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="534.5" y="161.4" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="554.0" y1="157.0" x2="554.0" y2="172.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="549.5" y="161.4" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="654.5" y="365.0" width="9" height="31.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="669.5" y="363.7" width="9" height="32.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="684.5" y="366.4" width="9" height="29.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<text x="24" y="320.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
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<text x="254.0" y="119.7" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">luna A: range îngust</text>
|
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<text x="569.0" y="231.2" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">luna B: compresie</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="426" fill="#555">R1 − S1 = H − L al lunii trecute: 2.40 față de 10.00. Proiecție inside, volum în scădere.</text>
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</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Luna A avea S1–R1 între <strong>45.00 și 55.00</strong>: 10 puncte.</li>
|
||
<li>Luna A însă a stat îngust: high <strong>51.75</strong>, low <strong>49.35</strong>, close <strong>50.90</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>De aici luna B: pivot <strong>50.67</strong>, R1 <strong>51.98</strong>, S1 <strong>49.58</strong>. R1 − S1 =
|
||
<strong>2.40</strong>, adică 24% din range-ul lunii trecute.</li>
|
||
<li>Luna B stă toată între S1 și R1, cu volum în scădere. Un stop de 1-2
|
||
puncte e deja în afara lunii; o țintă de 5 puncte n-are unde să vină.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h3 id="nu-obligatoriu-breakout-cu-volum-spre-rezistenta-lunii-trecute">Nu obligatoriu: breakout cu volum spre rezistența lunii trecute</h3>
|
||
<p>Nuanța din 04.09:</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„prevede o posibilă compresie, nu înseamnă că va fi neapărat compresia,
|
||
ar putea să atingă resistance-ul din luna trecută în luna asta și să ia
|
||
viteză."</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
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<!--SVG:inside_da-->
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 951 449" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, pivot monthly</text>
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<line x1="726.5" y1="150.4" x2="731.5" y2="146.9" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1"/>
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<line x1="96.5" y1="201.0" x2="411.5" y2="201.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="90.5" y="205.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">pivot A 50.00</text>
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<text x="90.5" y="315.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">S1 A 45.00</text>
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<text x="732.5" y="214.2" fill="#c00">S1 B 49.58</text>
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<text x="732.5" y="181.9" fill="#c00">SL 51.05</text>
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<line x1="96.5" y1="150.4" x2="726.5" y2="150.4" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="732.5" y="150.9" fill="#188a3e">intrare 52.30</text>
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<text x="732.5" y="95.0" fill="#1a5fb4">TP = R1 lunii trecute 55.00 = 2.2R</text>
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<rect x="99.5" y="187.8" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="171.3" x2="119.0" y2="193.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="176.8" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="162.5" x2="134.0" y2="182.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="168.0" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="168.0" width="9" height="11.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="249.5" y="376.6" width="9" height="30.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="264.5" y="375.0" width="9" height="32.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="279.5" y="375.8" width="9" height="31.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="339.5" y="378.8" width="9" height="28.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="474.5" y="384.2" width="9" height="22.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="504.5" y="384.9" width="9" height="22.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="549.5" y="387.2" width="9" height="19.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="564.5" y="384.2" width="9" height="22.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="579.5" y="337.0" width="9" height="70.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="594.5" y="353.7" width="9" height="53.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="609.5" y="358.3" width="9" height="48.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="624.5" y="370.5" width="9" height="36.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="639.5" y="361.3" width="9" height="45.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="654.5" y="362.9" width="9" height="44.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="669.5" y="373.5" width="9" height="33.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="684.5" y="365.2" width="9" height="41.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="699.5" y="363.6" width="9" height="43.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="714.5" y="372.8" width="9" height="34.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
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<text x="24" y="331.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
<text x="584.0" y="108.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">breakout cu volum</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="437" fill="#555">Aceeași compresie; volumul de 3x pe breakout o scoate până la rezistența lunii trecute.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li>Aceeași compresie în primele 11 zile; ultimele trei low-uri stau toate
|
||
la <strong>51.15</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>În a 12-a zi, închidere la <strong>52.30, peste R1 B (51.98)</strong>, cu volum
|
||
<strong>92</strong> față de o medie de <strong>30</strong> în compresie. Fără volumul acesta,
|
||
închiderea peste R1 poate fi doar codița de sus a range-ului. Pe 04.09,
|
||
la un wedge „deja într-o formă de breakout", el ar vrea „aș văd [sic]
|
||
să văd și volumul mai tare", dar breakout-ul masiv îl leagă de reintrarea în
|
||
MBT-10: „posibil dacă reintră în MBT-10 să vedem un breakout masiv".</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Intrare 52.30</strong>, <strong>SL 51.05</strong> (sub ultimul higher low al compresiei).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>TP 55.00 = R1-ul lunii trecute = 2.2R</strong> (risc 1.25). Atins în a 19-a
|
||
zi a lunii.</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="6-reject-pe-pivot-de-care-parte-inchide-conteaza">6. Reject pe pivot: de care parte închide contează</h2>
|
||
<p>Codița spune unde a ajuns prețul; close-ul spune cine a câștigat. Aceeași
|
||
atingere a pivotului e semnal opus după cum închide bara.</p>
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>Reject — DA (long)</th>
|
||
<th>Reject — NU (nu intri long)</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>codițe sub pivot, close-uri deasupra: pivotul e apărat</td>
|
||
<td>codițe peste pivot, close-uri sub: pivotul e rezistență</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>„Îmi place foarte tare rejectul pe pivotul de an, cu un doji și un hammer" (29.07)</td>
|
||
<td>„suntem într-un sell doji, nu-mi place asta și rejectul ăsta de aici, nu-mi place" (03.09)</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>intri pe trigger (buy doji, MBT-10), stop sub codițe</td>
|
||
<td>aștepți un nivel mai jos: suportul quarterly, S1, locul crimei</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>respins de mai multe ori sub pivot, apoi <strong>close-uri deasupra</strong> = continuare</td>
|
||
<td>sell doji + reject pe pivotul quarterly bate și un fundamental bun (03.09)</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
<h3 id="da-reject-deasupra-pivotului">DA: reject deasupra pivotului</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:reject_deasupra-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 830 292" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — weekly, pivot quarterly</text>
|
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<line x1="36.5" y1="223.0" x2="501.5" y2="223.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="507.5" y="226.6" fill="#b06000">pivot quarterly 50.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="236.2" x2="501.5" y2="236.2" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
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<text x="507.5" y="240.6" fill="#c00">SL 49.40</text>
|
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<line x1="36.5" y1="187.8" x2="501.5" y2="187.8" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="507.5" y="191.8" fill="#188a3e">intrare 51.60</text>
|
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<line x1="36.5" y1="91.0" x2="501.5" y2="91.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="507.5" y="95.0" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 56.00 = 2R</text>
|
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<line x1="44.0" y1="80.0" x2="44.0" y2="102.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="39.5" y="86.6" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="59.0" y1="88.8" x2="59.0" y2="115.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="54.5" y="95.4" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="74.0" y1="95.4" x2="74.0" y2="115.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="69.5" y="102.0" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="89.0" y1="95.4" x2="89.0" y2="126.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="84.5" y="102.0" width="9" height="17.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="104.0" y1="113.0" x2="104.0" y2="139.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="119.6" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="119.6" x2="119.0" y2="139.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="126.2" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="119.6" x2="134.0" y2="150.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="126.2" width="9" height="17.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="149.0" y1="137.2" x2="149.0" y2="163.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="143.8" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="146.0" x2="164.0" y2="163.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="152.6" width="9" height="4.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="179.0" y1="146.0" x2="179.0" y2="176.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="152.6" width="9" height="17.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="194.0" y1="163.6" x2="194.0" y2="190.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="189.5" y="170.2" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="209.0" y1="176.8" x2="209.0" y2="205.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="204.5" y="183.4" width="9" height="15.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="224.0" y1="194.4" x2="224.0" y2="227.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="219.5" y="198.8" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="239.0" y1="207.6" x2="239.0" y2="229.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="234.5" y="212.0" width="9" height="4.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="254.0" y1="203.2" x2="254.0" y2="234.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="249.5" y="207.6" width="9" height="8.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="269.0" y1="203.2" x2="269.0" y2="225.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="264.5" y="207.6" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="284.0" y1="205.4" x2="284.0" y2="227.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="279.5" y="209.8" width="9" height="4.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="299.0" y1="197.7" x2="299.0" y2="220.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="294.5" y="208.7" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="314.0" y1="183.4" x2="314.0" y2="213.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="309.5" y="187.8" width="9" height="20.9" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="329.0" y1="165.8" x2="329.0" y2="194.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="324.5" y="172.4" width="9" height="15.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="344.0" y1="165.8" x2="344.0" y2="185.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="339.5" y="172.4" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="359.0" y1="154.8" x2="359.0" y2="185.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="354.5" y="161.4" width="9" height="17.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="374.0" y1="139.4" x2="374.0" y2="168.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="369.5" y="146.0" width="9" height="15.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="389.0" y1="139.4" x2="389.0" y2="159.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="384.5" y="146.0" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="404.0" y1="128.4" x2="404.0" y2="159.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="399.5" y="135.0" width="9" height="17.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="419.0" y1="115.2" x2="419.0" y2="141.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="414.5" y="121.8" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="434.0" y1="115.2" x2="434.0" y2="135.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="429.5" y="121.8" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="449.0" y1="106.4" x2="449.0" y2="135.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="444.5" y="113.0" width="9" height="15.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="464.0" y1="93.2" x2="464.0" y2="119.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="459.5" y="99.8" width="9" height="13.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="479.0" y1="93.2" x2="479.0" y2="113.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="474.5" y="99.8" width="9" height="6.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="494.0" y1="84.4" x2="494.0" y2="113.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="489.5" y="91.0" width="9" height="15.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<text x="104.0" y="167.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">pullback</text>
|
||
<text x="254.0" y="177.2" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">5 rejecturi</text>
|
||
<text x="314.0" y="169.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
|
||
<text x="494.0" y="74.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="280" fill="#555">Codițele coboară sub pivot, close-urile rămân deasupra: pivotul e apărat.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Pullback weekly din 56 spre <strong>pivotul quarterly 50.00</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>Cinci săptămâni la rând codița coboară sub pivot (<strong>49.80, 49.70, 49.50,
|
||
49.90, 49.80</strong>) și close-ul revine deasupra. Vânzătorii ajung sub nivel,
|
||
dar nu pot rămâne acolo: la fiecare coborâre sub 50 apar cumpărători.</li>
|
||
<li>Doji, apoi <strong>buy doji la 51.60</strong> → intrare.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>SL 49.40</strong>, sub cea mai joasă codiță (49.50). Sub ea, pivotul nu mai e
|
||
apărat.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>TP 56.00 = 2R</strong> (risc 2.20), atins după 12 săptămâni.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Uitați-vă cum a ținut suportul ca la carte. Săptămână de săptămână."
|
||
(04.09)</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<h3 id="nu-reject-sub-pivot-deci-cumperi-mai-jos">NU: reject sub pivot, deci cumperi mai jos</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:reject_sub-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 830 373" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
|
||
<line x1="501.5" y1="217.8" x2="506.5" y2="213.4" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="501.5" y1="223.0" x2="506.5" y2="227.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="87.8" x2="501.5" y2="87.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="507.5" y="91.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 53.00 = 3R</text>
|
||
<line x1="36.5" y1="113.8" x2="501.5" y2="113.8" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="507.5" y="117.8" fill="#b06000">pivot monthly 52.00 = TP1 (2.2R)</text>
|
||
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<text x="507.5" y="193.2" fill="#188a3e">intrare 49.10</text>
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<text x="507.5" y="217.4" fill="#6a3d9a">pivot quarterly 48.00</text>
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<text x="24" y="255.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="134.0" y="80.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">reject sub pivot: NU</text>
|
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<text x="284.0" y="237.8" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer</text>
|
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<text x="314.0" y="168.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
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<text x="24" y="361" fill="#555">Nu cumperi rejectul de sub pivotul monthly. Cumperi mai jos, în pivotul quarterly.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li>Prețul urcă la <strong>pivotul monthly 52.00</strong>. Patru zile codița trece de el
|
||
(<strong>52.30, 52.30, 52.50, 52.10</strong>) și close-ul rămâne dedesubt. Nu
|
||
cumperi aici: pivotul a fost rezistență de patru ori.</li>
|
||
<li>Prețul coboară până la <strong>pivotul quarterly 48.00</strong>. Hammer cu low-ul
|
||
<strong>48.00</strong> exact pe nivel, cu cel mai mare volum de la cădere încoace.</li>
|
||
<li>Doji, apoi <strong>buy doji la 49.10</strong> → intrare.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>SL 47.80</strong>, sub hammer: sub pivotul quarterly nu mai ai suport.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>TP1 = pivotul monthly 52.00 = 2.2R</strong> (risc 1.30): exact nivelul care
|
||
te-a respins. <strong>TP2 53.00 = 3R</strong>, după ce pivotul monthly e trecut.</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
<p>Regula vine din 19.08, 20.08 și 24.08 („reject sub pivotul quarterly,
|
||
astea poate un nivel de preț un pic mai jos și să-l cumpărăm de acolo"),
|
||
iar varianta cu suportul quarterly e spusă direct pe 28.07:</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Daca ajungem in suportul quarterly, de cumparat cu doua maini"</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<h3 id="da-respins-de-cinci-ori-apoi-inchide-deasupra">DA: respins de cinci ori, apoi închide deasupra</h3>
|
||
<p>Cazul din 04.09: pivotul a fost rezistență de mai multe ori, apoi cedează.</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Momentan, rejectează pivotul quarterly, o dată de 2, de 3, de 4, de 5
|
||
ori, ne închidem deasupra pivotului cu un doji și de aici am putea să
|
||
avem o continuare superbă de trend"</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<!--SVG:reject_apoi_peste-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 830 364" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — weekly, pivot quarterly</text>
|
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<line x1="516.5" y1="208.4" x2="521.5" y2="212.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
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<line x1="36.5" y1="202.4" x2="516.5" y2="202.4" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="522.5" y="202.4" fill="#b06000">pivot quarterly 50.00</text>
|
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<text x="522.5" y="216.4" fill="#c00">SL 49.75</text>
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<text x="522.5" y="177.6" fill="#188a3e">intrare 51.20</text>
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|
||
<text x="522.5" y="108.0" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 54.10 = 2R</text>
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<rect x="54.5" y="269.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="69.5" y="276.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="84.5" y="276.8" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="104.0" y1="286.4" x2="104.0" y2="315.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="293.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="293.6" x2="119.0" y2="315.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="300.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="339.5" y="173.6" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="359.0" y1="166.4" x2="359.0" y2="185.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="354.5" y="173.6" width="9" height="4.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="374.0" y1="154.4" x2="374.0" y2="185.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="369.5" y="161.6" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="389.0" y1="140.0" x2="389.0" y2="168.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="384.5" y="147.2" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="404.0" y1="140.0" x2="404.0" y2="161.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="399.5" y="147.2" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="419.0" y1="128.0" x2="419.0" y2="161.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="414.5" y="135.2" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="434.0" y1="113.6" x2="434.0" y2="142.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="429.5" y="120.8" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="449.0" y1="113.6" x2="449.0" y2="135.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="444.5" y="120.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="464.0" y1="101.6" x2="464.0" y2="135.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="459.5" y="108.8" width="9" height="19.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="479.0" y1="89.6" x2="479.0" y2="116.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="474.5" y="96.8" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="494.0" y1="89.6" x2="494.0" y2="111.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="489.5" y="96.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="509.0" y1="80.0" x2="509.0" y2="111.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="504.5" y="87.2" width="9" height="16.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<text x="77.0" y="249.6" fill="#777" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">downtrend</text>
|
||
<text x="224.0" y="147.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">5 rejecturi sub pivot</text>
|
||
<text x="344.0" y="154.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji + buy doji</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="352" fill="#555">Cinci respingeri, apoi două close-uri peste pivot și buy doji: acum pivotul e suport.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Downtrend, apoi revenire spre <strong>pivotul quarterly 50.00</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>Cinci săptămâni cu codiță peste 50 și close sub. Fiecare respingere
|
||
consumă din oferta de la nivel.</li>
|
||
<li>Săptămâna 19 închide la <strong>50.35</strong>, peste pivot; a 20-a e un <strong>doji la
|
||
50.40</strong>, tot peste. Oferta s-a terminat.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Buy doji la 51.20</strong> → intrare. <strong>SL 49.75</strong>, sub doji și sub pivot:
|
||
dacă prețul revine sub 50, close-urile de deasupra au fost false.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>TP 54.10 = 2R</strong> (risc 1.45), atins după 8 săptămâni.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="7-scarita-pe-pivoti">7. Scărița pe pivoți</h2>
|
||
<p>Regula (10.09): trendul se citește pe swing-uri (higher highs / higher
|
||
lows) <strong>și</strong> pe pivoți. Pivotul perioadei curente mai sus decât cel
|
||
anterior e structură bull.</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Chiar dacă proiectia este bear, dar mă refer la pivot. Pivotul ăsta
|
||
mantri mai sus decât pivotul anterior."</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p>În sesiune el separă „proiecția" de „pivot": proiecția e un termen al lui
|
||
care nu se deduce din comparația pivoților (vezi Termenii). De aceea
|
||
„proiecție bear" cu pivotul mai sus (10.09) nu e o contradicție; pe ce
|
||
timeframe era citită proiecția nu reiese din transcriere.</p>
|
||
<h3 id="da-pivoti-in-trepte-higher-lows-deasupra-lor">DA: pivoți în trepte, higher lows deasupra lor</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:scarita_da-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 830 324" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — weekly, pivot quarterly</text>
|
||
<line x1="291.5" y1="52.0" x2="291.5" y2="281.6" stroke="#bbb" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
|
||
<line x1="486.5" y1="52.0" x2="486.5" y2="281.6" stroke="#bbb" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="281.6" x2="291.5" y2="281.6" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="90.5" y="285.6" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">pivot Q1 44.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="291.5" y1="212.0" x2="486.5" y2="212.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="294.5" y="226.0" fill="#b06000">pivot Q2 47.87</text>
|
||
<line x1="486.5" y1="167.6" x2="681.5" y2="167.6" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="687.5" y="171.6" fill="#b06000">pivot Q3 50.33</text>
|
||
<text x="687.5" y="141.1" fill="#777">SMA-20</text>
|
||
<polyline points="389.0,204.0 404.0,199.2 419.0,194.5 434.0,190.6 449.0,186.9 464.0,183.2 479.0,180.4 494.0,178.5 509.0,176.2 524.0,173.1 539.0,169.6 554.0,166.5 569.0,164.2 584.0,161.0 599.0,156.9 614.0,152.7 629.0,148.3 644.0,144.0 659.0,140.6 674.0,137.1" fill="none" stroke="#777" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
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<line x1="104.0" y1="240.2" x2="104.0" y2="258.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="245.6" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="247.4" x2="119.0" y2="265.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="252.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="243.8" x2="134.0" y2="265.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="249.2" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="149.0" y1="231.2" x2="149.0" y2="254.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="236.6" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="218.6" x2="164.0" y2="242.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="224.0" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="179.0" y1="204.2" x2="179.0" y2="229.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="209.6" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="194.0" y1="193.4" x2="194.0" y2="215.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="189.5" y="198.8" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="209.0" y1="193.4" x2="209.0" y2="211.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="204.5" y="198.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="224.0" y1="200.6" x2="224.0" y2="222.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="219.5" y="206.0" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="239.0" y1="206.0" x2="239.0" y2="222.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="234.5" y="211.4" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="254.0" y1="189.8" x2="254.0" y2="216.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="249.5" y="195.2" width="9" height="16.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="269.0" y1="179.0" x2="269.0" y2="200.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="264.5" y="184.4" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="284.0" y1="179.0" x2="284.0" y2="197.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="279.5" y="184.4" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="299.0" y1="186.2" x2="299.0" y2="202.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="294.5" y="191.6" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="314.0" y1="191.6" x2="314.0" y2="207.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="309.5" y="197.0" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="329.0" y1="188.0" x2="329.0" y2="207.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="324.5" y="193.4" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="339.5" y="180.8" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="359.0" y1="162.8" x2="359.0" y2="186.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="354.5" y="168.2" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="374.0" y1="150.2" x2="374.0" y2="173.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="369.5" y="155.6" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="389.0" y1="141.2" x2="389.0" y2="161.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="384.5" y="146.6" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="404.0" y1="141.2" x2="404.0" y2="161.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="399.5" y="146.6" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="419.0" y1="150.2" x2="419.0" y2="171.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="414.5" y="155.6" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="434.0" y1="161.0" x2="434.0" y2="179.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="429.5" y="166.4" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="449.0" y1="157.4" x2="449.0" y2="177.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="444.5" y="162.8" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="464.0" y1="144.8" x2="464.0" y2="168.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="459.5" y="150.2" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="479.0" y1="144.8" x2="479.0" y2="159.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="474.5" y="150.2" width="9" height="3.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="494.0" y1="148.4" x2="494.0" y2="164.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="489.5" y="153.8" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="509.0" y1="153.8" x2="509.0" y2="166.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="504.5" y="159.2" width="9" height="1.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="524.0" y1="148.4" x2="524.0" y2="166.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="519.5" y="153.8" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="539.0" y1="137.6" x2="539.0" y2="159.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="534.5" y="143.0" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="554.0" y1="126.8" x2="554.0" y2="148.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="549.5" y="132.2" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="569.0" y1="126.8" x2="569.0" y2="144.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="564.5" y="132.2" width="9" height="7.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="584.0" y1="121.4" x2="584.0" y2="144.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="579.5" y="126.8" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="599.0" y1="108.8" x2="599.0" y2="132.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="594.5" y="114.2" width="9" height="12.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="614.0" y1="108.8" x2="614.0" y2="125.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="609.5" y="114.2" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="629.0" y1="99.8" x2="629.0" y2="125.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="624.5" y="105.2" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="644.0" y1="89.0" x2="644.0" y2="110.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="639.5" y="94.4" width="9" height="10.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="659.0" y1="89.0" x2="659.0" y2="105.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="654.5" y="94.4" width="9" height="5.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="674.0" y1="80.0" x2="674.0" y2="105.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="669.5" y="85.4" width="9" height="14.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<text x="119.0" y="235.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">low</text>
|
||
<text x="314.0" y="179.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">HL</text>
|
||
<text x="434.0" y="149.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">HL</text>
|
||
<text x="509.0" y="141.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">HL</text>
|
||
<text x="389.0" y="131.2" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">vârf Q2</text>
|
||
<text x="554.0" y="112.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">breakout</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="312" fill="#555">Treaptă cu treaptă: pivotul fiecărui trimestru mai sus, fiecare higher low deasupra lui.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>Trimestru</th>
|
||
<th>H / L / C al trimestrului</th>
|
||
<th>Pivotul trimestrului următor</th>
|
||
<th>Low în trimestru</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>Q1</td>
|
||
<td>49.70 / 44.90 / 49.00</td>
|
||
<td>Q2: <strong>47.87</strong></td>
|
||
<td>44.90</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>Q2</td>
|
||
<td>51.80 / 48.10 / 51.10</td>
|
||
<td>Q3: <strong>50.33</strong></td>
|
||
<td>48.10, apoi HL <strong>49.70</strong></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>Q3</td>
|
||
<td>—</td>
|
||
<td>—</td>
|
||
<td>HL <strong>50.40</strong>, deasupra pivotului 50.33</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>Pivotul urcă <strong>44.00 → 47.87 → 50.33</strong>.</li>
|
||
<li>Swing low-urile urcă <strong>44.90 → 48.10 → 49.70 → 50.40</strong>, și fiecare e
|
||
deasupra pivotului trimestrului în care s-a format.</li>
|
||
<li>Vârful Q2 e <strong>51.80</strong>; închiderea la <strong>52.30</strong> îl sparge → scărița a
|
||
urcat încă o treaptă. Asta e confirmarea: fără breakout peste vârf, ai
|
||
doar un double bottom cu al doilea picior mai sus.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<p>Pe 17.08, același lucru pe un simbol real: „ai intrat în buy doji weekly
|
||
și uitați-vă, inclusiv succesiunea pivoților quarterly, higher highs,
|
||
higher lows".</p>
|
||
<h3 id="nu-pivotul-a-urcat-dar-pretul-nu-mai-urca">NU: pivotul a urcat, dar prețul nu mai urcă</h3>
|
||
<!--SVG:scarita_nu-->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 830 262" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — weekly, pivot quarterly</text>
|
||
<line x1="291.5" y1="52.0" x2="291.5" y2="220.4" stroke="#bbb" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
|
||
<line x1="486.5" y1="52.0" x2="486.5" y2="220.4" stroke="#bbb" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
|
||
<line x1="681.5" y1="106.4" x2="686.5" y2="110.2" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="681.5" y1="117.8" x2="686.5" y2="124.2" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="681.5" y1="106.4" x2="686.5" y2="96.2" stroke="#777" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<line x1="96.5" y1="220.4" x2="291.5" y2="220.4" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="90.5" y="224.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">pivot Q1 44.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="291.5" y1="150.8" x2="486.5" y2="150.8" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
|
||
<text x="294.5" y="164.8" fill="#b06000">pivot Q2 47.87</text>
|
||
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<text x="687.5" y="114.2" fill="#b06000">pivot Q3 50.33</text>
|
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<text x="687.5" y="84.0" fill="#1a5fb4">vârf Q2 51.80</text>
|
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||
<text x="687.5" y="128.2" fill="#c00">HL din Q2 49.70</text>
|
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<text x="687.5" y="100.2" fill="#777">SMA-20</text>
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<text x="539.0" y="67.8" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">fără breakout</text>
|
||
<text x="599.0" y="149.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">lower low</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="250" fill="#555">Pivotul Q3 a urcat, dar prețul nu face vârf nou și închide sub HL-ul din Q2: scărița s-a rupt.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!--/SVG-->
|
||
|
||
<p>Aceleași Q1 și Q2, deci același pivot Q3 <strong>50.33</strong>. În Q3:</p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>vârful ajunge doar la <strong>51.70</strong>, sub vârful Q2 (51.80): breakout-ul nu
|
||
vine;</li>
|
||
<li>prețul închide la <strong>50.10</strong>, sub pivotul Q3, apoi la <strong>49.60</strong>, sub HL-ul
|
||
din Q2 (49.70) → <strong>lower low</strong>.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<p>Pivotul Q3 a fost calculat din trimestrul bun de dinainte, deci încă arată
|
||
„scăriță". Prețul spune altceva, și prețul are ultimul cuvânt: pivotul
|
||
următor, calculat din acest Q3, va ieși mai jos.</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Poate nu doboar swing low-ul ăsta, deci pentru că s-ar strica
|
||
structura trend-ului" (21.08)</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="8-pivotul-in-combinatiile-sistemului">8. Pivotul în combinațiile sistemului</h2>
|
||
<p>Pivotul nu apare aproape niciodată singur. Combinațiile din sesiuni:</p>
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>Combinația</th>
|
||
<th>Rolul pivotului</th>
|
||
<th>Sesiunea</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>sfântul buy doji</strong>: double bottom + buy doji</td>
|
||
<td>close deasupra pivotului monthly, în proiecție bull</td>
|
||
<td>04.09, vezi <a href="01_buy_doji_si_strategia_mici.html">#1</a></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>strategia MICI</strong>: buy doji weekly + higher low</td>
|
||
<td>higher low-ul <strong>deasupra</strong> pivotului</td>
|
||
<td>10.09, vezi <a href="01_buy_doji_si_strategia_mici.html">#1</a></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>breakout la pivotul monthly</strong> pe indici</td>
|
||
<td>valid doar cu McClellan peste linia de zero; altfel bear flag</td>
|
||
<td>10.09</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>cup & handle</strong></td>
|
||
<td>breakout din mâner deasupra pivotului monthly, în proiecție bull</td>
|
||
<td>03.09</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>1/2 gap = previous high</strong></td>
|
||
<td>continuarea cere trendline rupt + close deasupra pivotului</td>
|
||
<td>03.09</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>reintrare după primul target</strong></td>
|
||
<td>căderea înapoi poate fi retestul locului crimei / suportului de an = higher low; reject sub pivotul de an cu stochastic spre oversold: „asta îmi place"</td>
|
||
<td>25.08; locul crimei: <a href="03_locul_crimei_si_pullback.html">#3</a></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>pullback în confluență</strong></td>
|
||
<td>S1/S2 în proiecție bull + locul crimei + MBT-10; intri unde se suprapun mai multe niveluri</td>
|
||
<td>18.08, 21.08</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>locul crimei + pivot quarterly / de an</strong></td>
|
||
<td>nivelul „ținut ca la carte" = cineva apără prețul</td>
|
||
<td>17.08, 04.09</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><strong>cădere sub pivotul de an</strong></td>
|
||
<td>cu stochastic overbought = semnal contra</td>
|
||
<td>02.09</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„suntem într-un sell doji, nu-mi place asta și rejectul ăsta de aici, nu-mi
|
||
place." (03.09, simbol cu 12/14 pe fundamental)</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="9-pivot-2-ce-nu-e-clar">9. „Pivot + 2": ce nu e clar</h2>
|
||
<p>Expresia apare o singură dată, pe 10.09:</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p>„Higher low și ne închidem. Pentru că suntem în zona pivotului plus 2.
|
||
Deja ne închidem proaile astea [sic] deasupra pivotului. Este foarte mare
|
||
șanse să ia viteză."</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p>Două citiri posibile, niciuna confirmată: <strong>+2% în ziua respectivă</strong> (el
|
||
spune des „plus 2 în premarket", de ex. 27.07) sau <strong>zona dintre pivot și
|
||
R2</strong>. Nu am desenat-o ca regulă separată. Partea sigură din frază, higher
|
||
low + close deasupra pivotului, e cea din secțiunile 6 și 7 și din
|
||
strategia MICI.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="gotchas">Gotchas</h2>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>Proiecția nu e trigger.</strong> Proiecție bull și preț în cădere se văd des.
|
||
Intri pe buy doji / MBT-10 la nivel, nu pe culoarea proiecției.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Nu cumpăra rejectul de sub pivot.</strong> Diagrama din secțiunea 6: patru
|
||
codițe peste 52.00, patru close-uri sub. Intrarea bună a venit 4 puncte
|
||
mai jos, la pivotul quarterly.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Inside înseamnă ținte mici (deducție a mea).</strong> Sesiunile descriu
|
||
inside-ul doar ca „zonă de compresie"; că țintele ar fi mici e o
|
||
deducție, prin analogie cu range-ul strâns. Cu R1 − S1 = 2.40, o țintă
|
||
de 5 puncte cere breakout cu volum (în exemplu, 92 față de o medie de
|
||
30). Fără volum, nu te baza pe el.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Pivotul nou se calculează din perioada veche.</strong> Un pivot Q3 care urcă
|
||
nu salvează un trimestru în care prețul face lower low (scărița NU).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Codița nu e close.</strong> Un reject se judecă la închiderea barei:
|
||
weekly-ul vineri, monthly-ul în ultima zi a lunii. Până atunci e doar
|
||
„în formare".</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<h2 id="surse">Surse</h2>
|
||
<p>Din analiza zilnică (recoltele din <code>harvest/</code>):</p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>17.08.2026</strong> — pivotul quarterly și cel de an ținute „ca la carte";
|
||
succesiunea pivoților quarterly HH/HL; scannerul de pullback (buy la
|
||
pivot monthly / quarterly).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>18.08.2026</strong> — retest locul crimei + S1/S2 în proiecție bull + MBT-10.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>19.08, 20.08, 24.08.2026</strong> — reject sub pivotul quarterly → cumperi mai
|
||
jos; stochastic oversold ca atenuare.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>21.08.2026</strong> — intrarea pe pullback unde coincid S2, suportul monthly
|
||
și alte niveluri; nu strica swing low-ul.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>25.08.2026</strong> — reintrare după primul target: retest suport de an,
|
||
reject sub pivotul de an cu stochastic spre oversold, „asta îmi place".
|
||
Recolta (<code>harvest/2026-08-25.md</code>) confirmă: rejectul sub pivotul de an
|
||
cu stochasticul spre oversold NU e trigger NU; semnalul contra e
|
||
căderea sub pivotul de an cu stochastic overbought (vezi și 02.09).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>02.09.2026</strong> — revenirea peste pivot; căderea sub pivotul de an cu
|
||
stochastic overbought.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>03.09.2026</strong> — pivoți divergenți = trading range; proiecție neutră;
|
||
sell doji + reject pe pivotul quarterly; cup & handle peste pivotul
|
||
monthly; close deasupra pivotului după 1/2 gap.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>04.09.2026</strong> — sfântul buy doji; inside nu obligatoriu compresie;
|
||
suportul ținut săptămână de săptămână; rejectat de 5 ori, apoi close
|
||
peste pivotul quarterly (citat din transcriere).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>10.09.2026</strong> — breakout la pivotul monthly cu McClellan; buy doji
|
||
deasupra pivotului în proiecție bull; proiecție bull inside; scărița pe
|
||
pivoți; „pivotul plus 2" (citat din transcriere).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>29.07.2026</strong> — „Îmi place foarte tare rejectul pe pivotul de an / cu un
|
||
doji și un hammer" (transcriere, nu e în recolte).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>28.07.2026</strong> — „în suportul quarterly, de cumpărat cu două mâini"
|
||
(și în recolte: <code>harvest/2026-07-28.md</code>, la gotchas).</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<p>Din curs: <a href="../03_MODUL_2/02_zone_cerere_oferta_support_resistance.html">Modul 2: Zone de cerere/ofertă prin floor pivots</a>
|
||
(formula, proiecția bull/bear, bull neutru — definiția din curs),
|
||
<a href="../03_MODUL_2/03_timeframes_set_up.html">Modul 2: Timeframes</a> (ce pivot
|
||
pe ce grafic), Q&A <a href="../09_QA/15_2025-10-14.html">14.10.2025</a> (proiecția nu
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e semnal). Referință externă:
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<a href="https://chartschool.stockcharts.com/table-of-contents/technical-indicators-and-overlays/technical-overlays/pivot-points">StockCharts ChartSchool — Pivot Points</a>.</p>
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<hr />
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<p><em>Ce e completare a mea: toate prețurile și diagramele sunt construite (în
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transcrieri cifrele nu se văd). Intrările, stop-urile, țintele și
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calculul R din fiecare exemplu sunt aplicarea mea a regulilor, nu cifre
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spuse de el. Tot ale mele: explicația de ce pivoții divergenți apar (R1 −
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S1 = High − Low al lunii trecute), legătura dintre „proiecție neutră" și
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„bull-neutru" din sesiuni și ideea că proiecția neutră se tratează ca
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range, lămurirea că „proiecție bear / pivot mai sus" de pe 10.09 nu e o
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contradicție, cele două interpretări posibile ale lui „pivot + 2",
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mecanismul cu ordinele strânse la un nivel calculat, gotchas-urile despre
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codiță vs close și despre pivotul calculat din perioada veche, deducția
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că la proiecția inside ținta e mai mică (sesiunile o descriu doar ca
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„zonă de compresie") și echivalarea „suportul de an" = S1 pe pivotul
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anual (în sesiuni cele două apar ca niveluri distincte). Regulile
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(proiecție bull/bear, inside, divergenți, reject sub/deasupra, scărița,
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combinațiile din tabelul de la secțiunea 8) și citatele vin din sesiuni
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și din curs.</em></p><nav class="pager"><a class="prev" href="03_locul_crimei_si_pullback.html">← 03. #3 — Locul crimei și disciplina pullback-ului</a><a class="up" href="../index.html#08_ANALIZA_ZILNICA">↑ index</a><a class="next" href="05_volum.html">05. #5 — Volumul: țeavă, acumulare, divergență →</a></nav>
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