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Claude Agent eb0ccff192 patru din cele cinci reguli noi, adaugate de agenti redactor 
02_mbt10: pivotul weekly decide sensul M2D 15/80 pe NQ intraday.
07_context: buy-ul pe sectoare inainte de FOMC ca semnal de anticipare.
08_executie: expunerea, nu directia, te lichideaza - 3-4 deviatii standard.
(04_pivoti, rutina de inceput de perioada, a intrat in 8dcaa1b.)

Citatele verificate de mine in transcrieri, cuvant cu cuvant.
audit_diagrams curat pe toate trei, pagina regenerata.

A cincea - short la blow-off top - a fost refuzata motivat de agent:
"rezistenta quarterly" si "spread de put-uri" nu se sustin in liniile
citate. Are dreptate, formularea venea dintr-un raport anterior. Ramane
de decis cu userul, notata in PROGRESS.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ThN7ixZrowca8aTGrK1MUJ
2026-09-18 12:10:02 +00:00

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<title>Analiză zilnică / #2 — MBT-10: trigger-ul de la finalul fiecărei idei</title>
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<nav class="crumbs"><a href="../index.html">Sumarizări</a><span class="sep">/</span><a href="../index.html#08_ANALIZA_ZILNICA">Analiză zilnică</a><span class="sep">/</span>#2 — MBT-10: trigger-ul de la finalul fiecărei idei</nav><h1 id="analiza-zilnica-2-mbt-10-trigger-ul-de-la-finalul-fiecarei-idei">Analiză zilnică / #2 — MBT-10: trigger-ul de la finalul fiecărei idei</h1>
<h2 id="tldr">TLDR</h2>
<ul>
<li><strong>MBT-10</strong> e un trigger al sistemului ATM, în ambele direcții. „Intră în
MBT-10" = semnal long; „MBT-10 short" = semnal în jos.</li>
<li><strong>Contează doar la închidere.</strong> Pe daily aștepți close-ul zilei în
MBT-10. „În formare" intraday nu e semnal, iar intrarea se face la close.</li>
<li>Aproape niciodată nu e ideea în sine: e <strong>ultima piesă</strong> după suport,
locul crimei, double bottom, buy doji, divergență de volum. Ideile vin din
scanner-ul de MBT-10, dar trec prin filtrul celorlalte confluențe.</li>
<li><strong>Timeframe:</strong> pe daily e trigger-ul de swing; pe 60 min îl folosești
în suport weekly; buy doji-ul pe 60 min intră și mai devreme.</li>
<li>Cel mai puternic caz: <strong>intrarea în MBT-10 cu gap up</strong>, după un
downtrend masiv, cu divergență de volum.</li>
<li>După un <strong>gap down masiv</strong>, primul MBT-10 poate să nu meargă; de obicei
merge al doilea sau al treilea. Dimensionezi pentru 2-3 încercări.</li>
<li><strong>MBT-10 short pe indice</strong> explică o corecție: nu cumperi acțiuni contra
lui.</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Notă: definiția tehnică lipsește.</strong> Nici în recoltele din analiza
zilnică, nici în sesiunile Q&amp;A rezumate până acum nu apare ce măsoară
MBT-10 sau cum se calculează (ce înseamnă „10", ce condiție de preț
declanșează semnalul). Singurul lucru spus despre construcție e general:
MBT-10, MBAP și MP² „se bazează pe pivoți", deci sunt price action
(<a href="../09_QA/01_2026-08-25.html">Q&amp;A 25.08.2026</a>). Nu inventez o definiție.
Documentul descrie MBT-10 prin ce face: când apare, cum îl validezi și
ce faci cu el. Din același motiv, diagramele nu desenează indicatorul.
Marchează doar bara pe care semnalul s-a închis, sau n-a apucat să se
închidă.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr />
<h2 id="de-ce-urmaresti-semnalul">De ce urmărești semnalul</h2>
<p>Setup-urile din analiza zilnică (suport, locul crimei, double bottom,
divergență de volum) spun <strong>unde</strong> ar putea fi un bottom. Nu spun <strong>când</strong>
s-a întors prețul. Un suport poate fi spart, un double bottom poate mai
face un picior. MBT-10 e răspunsul la „când": sistemul arată că prețul a
început efectiv să se miște în direcția ideii.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„Dacă intră în MBT-10, are mari șanse de urcare." (10.09)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Ce decizie te ajută să iei:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>intri acum sau mai aștepți</strong> — o idee cu toate confluențele, dar fără
MBT-10, rămâne pe listă, nu în cont;</li>
<li><strong>ce riști</strong> — după o bară de trigger, stop-ul are un loc clar sub
structura pe care s-a format;</li>
<li><strong>în ce direcție ai voie</strong> — MBT-10 short pe indice e motiv să nu
cumperi acțiuni în acele zile.</li>
</ul>
<hr />
<h2 id="termenii-o-singura-data">Termenii, o singură dată</h2>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Termen</th>
<th>Ce înseamnă aici</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>MBT-10</strong></td>
<td>trigger al sistemului ATM, long sau short. Definiția tehnică nu e în material (vezi nota de sus)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>intră în MBT-10</strong></td>
<td>bara curentă e marcată ca MBT-10 long</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>închis în MBT-10</strong></td>
<td>bara și-a terminat timeframe-ul (pe daily: ziua s-a închis) și semnalul a rămas. Doar asta e intrare</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>în formare</strong></td>
<td>intraday sistemul arată MBT-10, dar ziua încă nu s-a închis. Poate dispărea până la close</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>reintrare în MBT-10</strong></td>
<td>un nou semnal după un pullback, pe aceeași idee</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>locul crimei</strong></td>
<td>fost vârf spart, care la retest devine suport</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>peak bottom (strategii de)</strong></td>
<td>strategii care încearcă să prindă bottom-ul devreme: MBT-10, M2D pe secunde</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>MBAP</strong></td>
<td>setup ATM: intrare după o mișcare violentă, într-un nivel major (vezi Q&amp;A 11.08.2026). Nu e VWAP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>M2D 15/80</strong></td>
<td>trigger intraday de finețe, pe secunde. Numele exact e incert în transcriere</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<hr />
<h2 id="1-confirmarea-la-close-da">1. Confirmarea la close: DA</h2>
<!--SVG:mbt_da-->
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 374" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
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<text x="30" y="198.0" fill="#b06000">locul crimei 52.10</text>
<line x1="24" y1="206.0" x2="686" y2="206.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="200.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL 52.00</text>
<line x1="24" y1="154.0" x2="686" y2="154.0" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="148.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 54.60</text>
<line x1="24" y1="68.0" x2="686" y2="68.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="62.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP 58.90 = 1.7R</text>
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<text x="134.0" y="168.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">fost vârf</text>
<text x="284.0" y="42.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">vârf</text>
<text x="404.0" y="242.0" fill="#333" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer</text>
<text x="419.0" y="90.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 închis</text>
<text x="24" y="362" fill="#555">Intrarea e la close-ul zilei care s-a închis în MBT-10, nu în timpul zilei.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<ul>
<li>Uptrend. Fostul vârf, <strong>52.10</strong>, e spart. Prețul face un vârf nou la
58.90.</li>
<li>Pullback înapoi până în <strong>locul crimei</strong>. Hammer-ul are codița exact pe
52.10.</li>
<li>A doua zi prețul urcă, iar <strong>ziua se închide în MBT-10</strong> la <strong>54.60</strong> →
intrare la close.</li>
<li><strong>SL 52.00</strong>, sub codița hammer-ului. Acolo e și locul crimei. Dacă prețul
închide sub el, retestul a eșuat.</li>
<li><strong>TP 58.90</strong>, vârful anterior = <strong>1.65R</strong> (risc 2.60).</li>
</ul>
<p>Aceasta e combinația exact descrisă pe 10.09: pullback în locul crimei,
hammer în suport, apoi „aș aștepta o închidere la finalul zilei astăzi în
MBT-10".</p>
<h2 id="2-confirmarea-la-close-nu">2. Confirmarea la close: NU</h2>
<!--SVG:mbt_nu-->
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 362" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
<line x1="24" y1="128.0" x2="686" y2="128.0" stroke="#777" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="122.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="end">intraday 55.30</text>
<line x1="24" y1="192.0" x2="686" y2="192.0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30" y="186.0" fill="#b06000">locul crimei 52.10</text>
<line x1="44.0" y1="292.0" x2="44.0" y2="320.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="39.5" y="298.0" width="9" height="16.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="59.0" y1="270.0" x2="59.0" y2="304.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="54.5" y="276.0" width="9" height="22.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="74.0" y1="270.0" x2="74.0" y2="292.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="69.5" y="276.0" width="9" height="10.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="404.0" y="230.0" fill="#333" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer</text>
<text x="419.0" y="96.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 în formare</text>
<text x="434.0" y="260.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">sub locul crimei</text>
<text x="24" y="350" fill="#555">Intraday a fost la 55.30, dar ziua a închis la 52.90: semnalul nu a existat.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<p>Aceeași serie, până la hammer. În ziua următoare prețul urcă intraday până
la <strong>55.30</strong>, peste nivelul unde exemplul DA a închis. Sistemul arată
MBT-10 „în formare". Ziua se închide însă la <strong>52.90</strong>, sub open. A doua zi
închide la <strong>51.50</strong>, <strong>sub locul crimei</strong>.</p>
<ul>
<li>Cine a cumpărat intraday, la vederea semnalului, e în pierdere și sub
suport.</li>
<li>Cine a așteptat close-ul nu a avut niciun trade.</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<p>„Dacă nu se închide, nu e de intrat. Dacă se închide, e mișto de intrat."
(<a href="../09_QA/04_2026-08-04.html#mbt-10-singura-conditie-care-conteaza">Q&amp;A 04.08.2026</a>)</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>De ce contează închiderea (completarea mea):</strong> o bară intraday nu e
încă bară. High-ul ei poate fi doar lichiditatea luată de pe stop-urile
short-urilor și de pe ordinele buy stop de deasupra. Close-ul arată cine a
rămas cu prețul la sfârșitul zilei. Un semnal calculat pe o bară neînchisă
se calculează pe un preț care se mai poate schimba.</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="3-pe-ce-timeframe">3. Pe ce timeframe</h2>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Timeframe</th>
<th>Rol</th>
<th>Din recolte</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>daily</strong></td>
<td>trigger-ul standard de swing: aștepți închiderea zilei în MBT-10</td>
<td>10.09, 03.09, 25.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>60 min</strong></td>
<td>trigger în <strong>suport weekly</strong>, când pe daily ideea e deja formată</td>
<td>10.09</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>60 min, alternativa mai devreme</strong></td>
<td>buy doji / buy momentum pe 60 min după un downtrend simplu, <strong>numai</strong> în direcția swing-ului de pe daily</td>
<td>21.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>weekly / monthly</strong></td>
<td>recoltele nu dau o regulă de MBT-10 pe weekly; pe timeframe-urile instituționale rolul îl au buy doji-ul și volumul</td>
<td>—</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>Cascada de confirmări</strong> (<a href="../09_QA/04_2026-08-04.html#mbt-10-singura-conditie-care-conteaza">Q&amp;A 04.08.2026</a>):
MBT-10 pe 60 min → buy doji daily → buy doji weekly → buy doji monthly.
Intri la prima treaptă. Restul treptelor îți spun dacă rămâi în trade.</p>
<h3 id="mbt-10-pe-60-min-in-suport-weekly">MBT-10 pe 60 min, în suport weekly</h3>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — 60 min</text>
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<text x="672" y="59.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP 95.20 = 2.0R</text>
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<text x="224.0" y="316.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">test 1</text>
<text x="299.0" y="316.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">test 2</text>
<text x="374.0" y="316.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">test 3</text>
<text x="404.0" y="146.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 (60 min)</text>
<text x="24" y="332" fill="#555">Suportul weekly ține de trei ori; bara de 60 min închisă în MBT-10 e trigger-ul.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<ul>
<li>Pe 60 min, prețul coboară în <strong>suportul weekly de la 88.00</strong>.</li>
<li>Suportul e testat de <strong>trei ori</strong> și ține de fiecare dată. Între teste
apar vârfuri tot mai mici, deci o compresie. Pe 04.09: „a ținut suportul
ca la carte" înseamnă că cineva apără prețul.</li>
<li>Bara de 60 min se închide în MBT-10 la <strong>89.90</strong>, peste ultimele 5 bare →
intrare.</li>
<li><strong>SL 87.30</strong>, sub suportul weekly: dacă suportul cedează, nu mai există
motivul trade-ului.</li>
<li><strong>TP 95.20</strong>, vârful de unde a pornit coborârea = <strong>2.0R</strong>.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>De ce 60 min și nu daily (completarea mea):</strong> o bară daily în suport
weekly poate avea un low cu 2-3% sub suport, deci stopul ar sta departe.
Pe 60 min vezi testele una câte una și pui stopul chiar sub suport. Ideea
(suportul weekly) rămâne pe timeframe mare; doar intrarea se face pe unul
mic.</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="4-intrarea-in-mbt-10-cu-gap-up-dupa-un-downtrend-masiv">4. Intrarea în MBT-10 cu gap up, după un downtrend masiv</h2>
<p>Cel mai puternic caz din recolte (03.09):</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„când intră în MBT-10 cu un gap up sus aici, după un downtrend masiv de
genul ăsta, cu divergențe pe volum, sunt mari șanse să vedem o nabucată
revenire."</p>
</blockquote>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Gap up în MBT-10 — DA</th>
<th>Gap up în MBT-10 — NU</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>downtrend masiv, departe de medie</td>
<td>fără divergență de volum</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>stochastic oversold pe monthly și weekly</td>
<td>intrarea în MBT-10 încă neconfirmată la închidere</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>double bottom sau serie de doji, ideal în locul crimei</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>divergență de volum: ultimul picior coboară cu vânzare mai mică</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<!--SVG:mbt_gap_up-->
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 680 466" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
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<text x="30" y="295.0" fill="#c00">SL 32.80 (sub gap)</text>
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<text x="30" y="205.4" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 39.20 = 3.6R</text>
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<text x="24" y="347.6" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="284.0" y="171.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">downtrend masiv</text>
<text x="359.0" y="330.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">picior 1</text>
<text x="449.0" y="341.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">picior 2</text>
<text x="479.0" y="232.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">gap up în MBT-10</text>
<text x="24" y="454" fill="#555">Piciorul 2 e mai jos, dar cu volum de vânzare mai mic: divergență. Gap-ul up e trigger-ul.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<ol>
<li><strong>Downtrend masiv</strong>, de la 50 la 32, sub SMA 20 tot drumul.</li>
<li><strong>Picior 1</strong> la 32.10, cu cel mai mare volum de vânzare din cădere.</li>
<li><strong>Picior 2</strong> la 30.90, mai jos, dar cu volum de vânzare de mai puțin
de jumătate. Prețul face lower low, volumul nu îl mai confirmă:
<strong>divergență de volum</strong>. Urmează un doji.</li>
<li><strong>Gap up în MBT-10.</strong> Bara deschide la 33.20, peste high-ul barei
anterioare (32.00). Închide la <strong>34.20</strong>, peste neckline-ul double
bottom-ului (34.10), cu cel mai mare volum din serie → <strong>intrare 34.20</strong>.</li>
<li><strong>SL 32.80</strong>, sub low-ul barei de gap. Dacă gap-ul se închide complet,
cumpărătorii care au sărit peste preț au renunțat.</li>
<li><strong>TP 39.20</strong>, ultimul lower high dinainte de piciorul 1 = <strong>3.6R</strong> (risc
1.40).</li>
</ol>
<p><strong>De ce funcționează gap-ul (completarea mea):</strong> după o cădere lungă, mulți
sunt short, iar stopurile lor stau deasupra ultimelor bare. Un gap up
deschide direct peste acele stopuri. Short-urile se acoperă la market
(short covering) și se adaugă cumpărătorilor noi. Divergența de volum arăta
dinainte că vânzătorii rămăseseră puțini. Pe 04.09, cu stochastic extrem
oversold pe monthly și weekly, ținta minimă e „măcar revenirea la medie".</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="5-dupa-un-gap-down-masiv-primul-mbt-10-poate-sa-nu-mearga">5. După un gap down masiv: primul MBT-10 poate să nu meargă</h2>
<p>Regula e din <a href="../09_QA/03_2026-08-11.html#mbt-10-dupa-un-gap-down-masiv-nu-astepta-confirmare">Q&amp;A 11.08.2026</a>:
după o cădere masivă, la MBT-10 intri fără altă confirmare, dar <strong>primul
semnal poate să nu meargă; în general merge al doilea sau al treilea.</strong></p>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
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<text x="732" y="74.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP 70.60 = 4.7R (gap închis)</text>
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<text x="30" y="213.2" fill="#777">#1 intrare 64.80</text>
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<text x="30" y="275.6" fill="#188a3e">#2 intrare 62.20</text>
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<text x="732" y="318.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">#2 SL 60.40</text>
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<text x="239.0" y="174.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 #1</text>
<text x="269.0" y="308.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">stop</text>
<text x="329.0" y="338.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 #2</text>
<text x="24" y="355" fill="#555">Primul MBT-10 după gap down te scoate; al doilea, cu același risc, merge.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<ul>
<li><strong>Gap down masiv</strong>: de la ~71 la 66.40, fără nicio bară între.</li>
<li><strong>MBT-10 #1</strong> se închide la 64.80. Intrare, cu SL 63.20 sub low-ul
barelor de după gap. Două zile mai târziu, stop.</li>
<li><strong>MBT-10 #2</strong> se închide mai jos, la <strong>62.20</strong>. <strong>SL 60.40</strong>, sub noul
low. Același risc în bani ca la #1.</li>
<li><strong>TP 70.60 = închiderea gap-ului</strong> (low-ul ultimei bare dinainte) =
<strong>4.7R</strong>.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Consecința practică (completarea mea, pe regula lui):</strong> dacă intri cu
toată mărimea pe #1 și ești stopat, pierzi și banii, și curajul pentru #2.
Împarte riscul: pierderea la #1 (1R) plus câștigul la #2 (4.7R) dau un
trade bun. Cu toată mărimea pe #1, pierzi 2-3R și probabil nu mai intri la</p>
<h1 id="2">2.</h1>
<hr />
<h2 id="6-mbt-10-short-pe-indice-explicatia-corectiei">6. MBT-10 short pe indice: explicația corecției</h2>
<p>MBT-10 funcționează și în jos. Pe 21.08 corecția pieței a fost explicată
direct prin semnalul de pe indice:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„știți că am avut MBT 10 pe Indig, short, ăsta este una din explicații
principale pentru care și a căzut piața."</p>
</blockquote>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>MBT-10 short pe indice — ia-l în serios</th>
<th>Semnal că se termină</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>McClellan sub linia de zero (risc de reject și de continuare)</td>
<td>ATR în spike peste 100%, cu McClellan oversold</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>structura de top: double top cu al doilea vârf mai sus</td>
<td>preț în locul crimei, gap închis, SMA 20 atinsă</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily, indice</text>
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<text x="30" y="135.8" fill="#188a3e">intrare short 58.10</text>
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<text x="30" y="226.0" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 54.00 = 1.8R</text>
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<text x="24" y="357" fill="#555">MBT-10 short pe indice: nu cumperi acțiuni în corecție; short doar dacă ai regulile lui.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<ul>
<li>Uptrend, <strong>vârf 1</strong> la 59.60, pullback, apoi <strong>vârf 2</strong> mai sus, la
60.30. Cumpărătorii nu mai trag prețul departe de primul vârf.</li>
<li>Ziua se închide în <strong>MBT-10 short</strong> la <strong>58.10</strong>.</li>
<li>Pentru acțiuni: nu intri long în zilele astea, oricât de bun ar fi
setup-ul. Majoritatea acțiunilor urmează indicele.</li>
<li>Dacă tranzacționezi indicele short: intrare 58.10, <strong>SL 60.40</strong> peste
vârful 2, <strong>TP 54.00</strong>, baza de unde a pornit ultima urcare = <strong>1.8R</strong>.</li>
</ul>
<p>Oglinda pe long e diagrama 1. Acolo tot la close, tot cu stop dincolo de
structură.</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="7-scanner-ul-si-confluentele-mbt-10-e-ultima-piesa">7. Scanner-ul și confluențele: MBT-10 e ultima piesă</h2>
<blockquote>
<p>„ele sunt venite majoritatea din scanner-ul de MBT-10, dar sunt puse la
pachet cu alte combinații pe care le învățați." (04.09)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Fluxul lui (04.09): fundamental → monthly → weekly → daily → MBT-10 ca
trigger la final. <strong>Scanner-ul dă lista, confluențele o filtrează</strong>, iar
close-ul în MBT-10 decide intrarea.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„posibil să intrăm în MBT-10, deci o combinație cu MBT-10 ca să rețineți
foarte multe confluențe."</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Cum apare MBT-10 în setup-urile din recolte:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Setup</th>
<th>Ce face MBT-10 în el</th>
<th>Zi</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>pullback în locul crimei + hammer în suport quarterly</strong></td>
<td>trigger-ul, la închiderea zilei (diagrama 1)</td>
<td>10.09</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>strategia MICI</strong> (buy doji weekly + higher low peste pivot)</td>
<td>bonus de confirmare, alături de volum și buy doji pe daily</td>
<td>10.09</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>double bottom cu al doilea picior mai jos</strong>, în suportul lunii trecute, cu buy doji și gap-uri închise</td>
<td>trigger pe termen scurt, la închidere</td>
<td>03.09</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>buy doji monthly + wick în FVG monthly</strong> (al doilea picior de double bottom)</td>
<td>confirmarea finală</td>
<td>24.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>double bottom în formare vs bear flag</strong></td>
<td>cu divergență de volum, buy doji weekly și MBT-10, înclini spre urcare</td>
<td>24.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>spike low</strong> sub consolidare</td>
<td>spike low-ul singur nu e intrare; aștepți MBT-10</td>
<td>20.08, 21.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>triple doji</strong> în descending wedge, oversold, divergență de volum weekly</td>
<td>ultima confluență</td>
<td>19.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>reintrare după primul target</strong>, retest în locul crimei</td>
<td>MBT-10 pe daily sau inverted H&amp;S pe 60 min; ideal un nou buy doji</td>
<td>25.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>bull flag înapoi în locul crimei</strong> după breakout</td>
<td>intri doar cu pattern de bottom acolo + MBT-10 la închidere</td>
<td>03.09</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>retest la 1/2 gap = previous high</strong></td>
<td>continuarea cere reintrare în MBT-10 + trendline rupt + peste pivot</td>
<td>03.09</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>buy hammer din suportul monthly, gap deasupra</strong></td>
<td>gap-ul de sub preț e riscul; intrarea în MBT-10 face varianta long mai probabilă</td>
<td>02.09</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>island top, apoi gap închis în pivotul quarterly</strong></td>
<td>poți intra și <strong>înainte</strong> de MBT-10, imediat după închiderea gap-ului</td>
<td>21.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>sezonalitate / sector favorizat</strong></td>
<td>sezonalitatea singură nu e intrare; trigger-ul e setup-ul tehnic + MBT-10</td>
<td>25.08</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Două reguli rezultă din tabel:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Buy momentum fără volum → aștepți MBT-10</strong> în loc să intri (10.09).</li>
<li><strong>MBT-10 nu anulează un risc de eveniment.</strong> Double bottom + buy hammer +
MBT-10, dar earnings în zilele următoare = gamble trade. Nu intri
direcțional (10.09).</li>
</ul>
<hr />
<h2 id="8-intraday-mbap-da-zona-m2d-da-trigger-ul">8. Intraday: MBAP dă zona, M2D dă trigger-ul</h2>
<p>Pentru intraday și prop, logica e aceeași ca la MBT-10 pe daily:
<strong>un nivel mare</strong> pentru idee și <strong>un trigger mic</strong> pentru intrare.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>MBAP</strong> dă zona: nivel major, suport, bottom după o mișcare violentă.</li>
<li><strong>M2D pe 15/80 de secunde</strong> dă momentul intrării.</li>
<li>Raport câștig/risc de 1:3 până la 1:7. Tranzacții puține, doar în
suporturi majore (03.09).</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<p>„dacă tu folosești M de Mbap și trigger-ul de M2D, vei explodea."</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Aplicare din 02.09: pe futures, după ce low-ul zilei anterioare e spart și
apare exhaustion selling sub low-uri, cauți M2D 15/80. Stop-ul se mută pe
break-even când trade-ul merge. Dacă volumul e în distribuție, lași prețul
să mai facă un swing low.</p>
<p>Pe <strong>NQ intraday, pivotul weekly decide sensul M2D 15/80</strong> (31.07): sub
pivot, cu retest respins, short; close deasupra pivotului, plus retest pe
pivot, long.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„Dacă nu reușește să treacă, s-ar putea shorta cu 15.80 din nou aici.
Dacă trece și ajungem deasupra pivot-ului, așteptați un retest pe pivot
și întrați cu M2D 15.80 de secunde."
(<code>transcripts/08_ANALIZĂ_ZILNICĂ/20_31072026.txt</code>, liniile 97-99)</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Fără diagramă, deliberat.</strong> Parametrii M2D sunt incerți în transcriere
(„15 cu 80", „15 cu 10"), iar detaliile au fost promise după modulul 6. O
diagramă pe secunde cu cifre construite ar arăta o regulă pe care
materialul nu o dă.</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="gotchas">Gotchas</h2>
<ul>
<li><strong>Nu intra pe „în formare".</strong> Diagrama 2: intraday 55.30, închis la
52.90, a doua zi sub locul crimei.</li>
<li><strong>Nu pune toată mărimea pe primul MBT-10 după gap down.</strong> Diagrama 5: #1
stopat, #2 la 4.7R. Împarte riscul pe încercări.</li>
<li><strong>Scanner-ul nu e o listă de cumpărături.</strong> Ideile vin de acolo, dar
fără suport, volum și pattern de bottom, MBT-10 e doar un semnal pe o
bară oarecare (04.09).<blockquote>
<p>„majoritatea tranzacțiilor […] sunt cu relativ volume peste 100% și cu
relativ strength-ul în cadranul de îmbunătățire"</p>
</blockquote>
</li>
<li><strong>Spike low-ul nu e bottom până nu vine MBT-10.</strong> Pe același grafic a
arătat un spike low după care căderea a continuat (20.08).<blockquote>
<p>„nu de fiecare dată, că uite și aici a fost un spyglow și după care a
continuat căderea, dar este de așteptat o intrare de tipu MBT-10"</p>
</blockquote>
</li>
</ul>
<hr />
<h2 id="surse">Surse</h2>
<p>Din analiza zilnică (recoltele din <code>harvest/</code>):</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>19.08.2026</strong> — triple doji la bottom, cu MBT-10 ca ultimă confluență.</li>
<li><strong>20.08.2026</strong> — spike low-ul e motiv să aștepți MBT-10, nu intrare.</li>
<li><strong>21.08.2026</strong> — MBT-10 short pe indice explică corecția; spike low sub
consolidare cu confirmare MBT-10; island top, unde poți intra înainte de
MBT-10; buy doji pe 60 min ca intrare mai devreme.</li>
<li><strong>24.08.2026</strong> — FVG monthly ca al doilea picior + MBT-10; double bottom
vs bear flag.</li>
<li><strong>25.08.2026</strong> — reintrarea după primul target, cu MBT-10 pe daily;
sezonalitate + MBT-10.</li>
<li><strong>02.09.2026</strong> — gap-ul ca risc sau țintă; MBT-10 face varianta long mai
probabilă; M2D 15/80 după low-ul zilei anterioare.</li>
<li><strong>03.09.2026</strong> — intrarea în MBT-10 cu gap up după downtrend masiv;
MBT-10 la închidere în bull flag și la 1/2 gap; MBAP + M2D.</li>
<li><strong>04.09.2026</strong> — scanner-ul de MBT-10 + combinații; analiza top-down cu
MBT-10 la final; suport care ține pe 60 min.</li>
<li><strong>10.09.2026</strong> — MBT-10 confirmat la închiderea zilei; 60 min în suport
weekly; buy momentum fără volum → aștepți MBT-10; earnings = gamble trade.</li>
</ul>
<p>Din Q&amp;A: <a href="../09_QA/04_2026-08-04.html#mbt-10-singura-conditie-care-conteaza">04.08.2026</a>
(închiderea ca singura condiție, cascada de confirmări),
<a href="../09_QA/03_2026-08-11.html#mbt-10-dupa-un-gap-down-masiv-nu-astepta-confirmare">11.08.2026</a>
(primul MBT-10 după gap down),
<a href="../09_QA/01_2026-08-25.html">25.08.2026</a> (strategiile merg pe orice piață,
fiind bazate pe pivoți). Referințe externe pentru pattern-urile din jurul
trigger-ului: <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gap.asp">Investopedia — Gap</a>,
<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hammer.asp">Investopedia — Hammer</a>.</p>
<hr />
<p><em>Ce e completare a mea: toate prețurile și diagramele sunt construite (în
transcrieri cifrele sunt nesigure, iar MBT-10 nu e desenat pentru că nu i
se cunoaște formula). Stop-urile, țintele și calculul R din exemple sunt
aplicarea mea a regulilor, nu cifre spuse de el. Tot ale mele sunt:
explicația de ce contează închiderea, mecanismul short covering-ului la
gap up, motivul pentru 60 min în suport weekly și aritmetica împărțirii
riscului pe 2-3 încercări. Regulile (confirmarea la close, 60 min în suport
weekly, gap up + divergență, MBT-10 short pe indice, scanner + confluențe,
MBAP + M2D), tabelul de setup-uri și citatele vin din sesiuni.</em></p><nav class="pager"><a class="prev" href="01_buy_doji_si_strategia_mici.html">← 01. #1 — Buy doji, sell doji și strategia MICI</a><a class="up" href="../index.html#08_ANALIZA_ZILNICA">↑ index</a><a class="next" href="03_locul_crimei_si_pullback.html">03. #3 — Locul crimei și disciplina pullback-ului →</a></nav>
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