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atm-curs-dl/summaries/08_ANALIZA_ZILNICA/08_executie_si_risc.html
Claude Agent 303e9a4c91 Analiza Zilnica 08: executie si risc (10 diagrame + tabelul esantionului) 
Al noualea document de strategie. Aici aritmetica e miezul, deci fiecare
raport R e pe assert masurat in pixeli, cu toleranta 0.01, si fiecare suma
din text e recalculata in generator.

Acoperite: riscul fix de 25 $ la 1:4 pe long si pe short, reintrarea dupa
stop cu acelasi risc (trei intrari, -25 -25 +100 = +50 $), break-even la
+1R cu perechea DA/NU pe aceleasi candele (pe NU ieși pe zero si 11 bare
mai tarziu prețul e la ținta), trei poziții cu TP1/TP2/trail (2.27R),
țintele in trepte R1 → R2 → varf anterior → SMA-200 → 1/2 marubozu → fost
suport, fiecare cu R-ul lui, ținta realista de 1/2 (3.3R, atinsa) fata de
ținta lacoma la varf (6.6R, ratata dupa 70% din drum), tranșele de 1/4 la
simboluri scumpe (2.6R fata de 1.0R cumparand tot la varf).

SMA-200 e calculata din 200 de close-uri reale, nu desenata aproximativ -
PChart a primit `hist` pentru asta.

Doua bug-uri prinse de agent la verificare: in text scria "5 cistigatoare"
la 20 de tranzactii, dar calculul da 4; si etichetele de trail goale
intrau in plasarea automata si impingeau etichetele TP1/TP2 cu 13px sub
liniile lor.

Marcat ca adaugire proprie: break-even la exact +1R, TP1 = 1R / TP2 = 2R,
a patra transa la 1/2, si regula de trail - cea din Strategia 3 cere un gol
intre bare, imposibil pe o serie continua, deci e inlocuita cu low-ul
ultimei candele care a inchis peste high-ul precedentei.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01MtSTyTmt6AbCL9j5ajEDm1
2026-09-14 06:09:25 +00:00

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<title>Analiză zilnică / #8 — Execuție și risc</title>
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<nav class="crumbs"><a href="../index.html">Sumarizări</a><span class="sep">/</span><a href="../index.html#08_ANALIZA_ZILNICA">Analiză zilnică</a><span class="sep">/</span>#8 — Execuție și risc</nav><h1 id="analiza-zilnica-8-executie-si-risc">Analiză zilnică / #8 — Execuție și risc</h1>
<h2 id="tldr">TLDR</h2>
<ul>
<li><strong>Risc fix de 25 $ pe tranzacție, țintă 4R = 100 $</strong> (10.09). Stopul
stabilește câte acțiuni cumperi, nu invers: 25 $ / distanța până la stop.</li>
<li>La 1:4 ai nevoie de <strong>o țintă din cinci</strong> ca să fii pe zero. Patru stopuri
la rând = −100 $, adică exact o țintă. De aici: <strong>nu judeci sistemul după o
zi, ci după 20-30 de tranzacții.</strong></li>
<li><strong>După stop, reintri</strong> (mai jos, la long) <strong>cu același risc de 25 $</strong> (02.09).</li>
<li>Când tranzacția merge, <strong>muți stopul pe break-even</strong>. Costul: în
volatilitate te scoate des la zero (02.09).</li>
<li><strong>Trei poziții:</strong> TP1, TP2 și a treia pe trailing stop.</li>
<li><strong>Ținte în trepte</strong> (03.09): R1 → R2 → vârf anterior → SMA-200 → 1/2
marubozu → fost suport. Unde se strâng mai multe, e zona de profit.</li>
<li><strong>Ținta realistă a unui bounce = 1/2 din distanța până la vârf</strong> (21.08),
nu vârful.</li>
<li><strong>Acțiuni scumpe: 4 tranșe de 1/4</strong>, cu un singur stop (10.09).</li>
</ul>
<hr />
<h2 id="termenii-o-singura-data">Termenii, o singură dată</h2>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Termen</th>
<th>Ce înseamnă aici</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>R</strong></td>
<td>riscul unei tranzacții: distanța intrare → stop, în bani. La noi 1R = 25 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>1:4 / 4R</strong></td>
<td>ținta e de 4 ori mai departe de intrare decât stopul; câștigul = 4 × 25 $ = 100 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>mărimea poziției</strong></td>
<td>acțiuni = 25 $ / (intrare − stop), rotunjit în jos</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>break-even (BE)</strong></td>
<td>stopul mutat exact la prețul de intrare: dacă e atins, ieși pe zero</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>TP1 / TP2</strong></td>
<td>primul și al doilea take profit, pentru câte o parte a poziției</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>trailing stop</strong></td>
<td>stop care urcă după preț (la long) și nu coboară niciodată</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>marubozu</strong></td>
<td>candelă mare, aproape fără codițe; jumătatea corpului ei e un nivel</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>R1 / R2</strong></td>
<td>rezistențele pivotului monthly (calculul: <a href="04_pivoti_si_proiectii.html">documentul 04</a>)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>eșantion</strong></td>
<td>numărul de tranzacții după care rezultatul spune ceva despre sistem</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<hr />
<h2 id="1-risc-fix-de-25-la-14">1. Risc fix de 25 $ la 1:4</h2>
<p>Pe intrările intraday riscă mereu aceeași sumă mică, 25 $, și cere o țintă de
4R. Mărimea poziției vine din stop:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Pas</th>
<th>Calcul</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>stopul e sub structură</td>
<td>intrare 100.60, stop 100.35 → 0.25 $/acțiune</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>câte acțiuni</td>
<td>25 $ / 0.25 = <strong>100 acțiuni</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ținta 4R</td>
<td>100.60 + 4 × 0.25 = <strong>101.60</strong> → 100 × 1.00 = <strong>+100 $</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 734 300" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — 5 min</text>
<line x1="246.5" y1="95.6" x2="546.5" y2="95.6" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="552.5" y="99.6" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 101.60 = 4R = +100 $</text>
<line x1="246.5" y1="225.6" x2="546.5" y2="225.6" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="2"/>
<text x="552.5" y="229.6" fill="#188a3e">intrare 100.60 (100 acțiuni)</text>
<line x1="246.5" y1="258.1" x2="546.5" y2="258.1" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
<text x="552.5" y="262.1" fill="#c00">SL 100.35 = 1R = −25 $</text>
<line x1="44.0" y1="87.8" x2="44.0" y2="109.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="39.5" y="95.6" width="9" height="6.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="534.5" y="106.0" width="9" height="15.6" fill="#c00"/>
<text x="77.0" y="198.9" fill="#777" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">pullback</text>
<text x="254.0" y="272.1" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">trigger</text>
<text x="449.0" y="78.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">4R</text>
<text x="24" y="288" fill="#555">Risc 0.25 $/acțiune × 100 acțiuni = 25 $. Ținta e de 4 ori mai departe decât stopul.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<ul>
<li>Pullback de pe 101.66 într-o bază de 5 minute. Trigger la <strong>100.60</strong>.</li>
<li><strong>SL 100.35</strong>, sub cele trei low-uri ale bazei (cel mai jos: 100.40).</li>
<li><strong>TP 101.60 = 4R</strong>, chiar sub vârful de unde a plecat pullback-ul. Atins
după 13 bare.</li>
</ul>
<p>Dacă stopul logic ar fi fost la 0.50 $, cumperi 50 de acțiuni, nu 100.
Riscul rămâne 25 $; se schimbă doar mărimea.</p>
<p><strong>Short, aceeași aritmetică:</strong></p>
<!--SVG:risc_short-->
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 765 300" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — 5 min</text>
<line x1="246.5" y1="80.0" x2="546.5" y2="80.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
<text x="552.5" y="84.0" fill="#c00">SL 80.25 = 1R = −25 $</text>
<line x1="246.5" y1="112.5" x2="546.5" y2="112.5" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="2"/>
<text x="552.5" y="116.5" fill="#188a3e">intrare short 80.00 (100 acțiuni)</text>
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<text x="552.5" y="246.5" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 79.00 = 4R = +100 $</text>
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<text x="77.0" y="149.2" fill="#777" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">raliu</text>
<text x="254.0" y="73.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">trigger</text>
<text x="449.0" y="269.7" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">4R</text>
<text x="24" y="288" fill="#555">Short: stopul deasupra, ținta dedesubt, tot 0.25 $ contra 1.00 $.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<p>Intrare short <strong>80.00</strong>, SL <strong>80.25</strong> deasupra bazei, TP <strong>79.00</strong>. Tot 100 de
acțiuni, −25 $ sau +100 $.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„după 4 ori și nu merge niciodată, pierd câte 25, înseamnă că am pierd 100."</p>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="2-de-ce-14-esantionul-de-20-30-de-tranzactii">2. De ce 1:4: eșantionul de 20-30 de tranzacții</h2>
<p>La 1:4 o țintă plătește patru stopuri. Pragul de zero e deci <strong>1 din 5
tranzacții câștigătoare (20%)</strong>. Sub el pierzi, peste el câștigi, oricât de
urât arată ziua.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„Tradingul este măsurabil doar după un eșantion reprezentativ, nu după
noroc, nu după o zi bună, după 20-30 de tranzacții."</p>
</blockquote>
<p>O serie construită de <strong>25 de tranzacții, 6 câștigătoare (24%)</strong>:</p>
<!--SVG:esantion_tabel-->
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>#</th>
<th>rezultat</th>
<th>cumulat</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>-25 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>-50 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>-75 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>-100 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5</td>
<td>țintă +100 $</td>
<td>+0 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>-25 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>-50 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>-75 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9</td>
<td>țintă +100 $</td>
<td>+25 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>+0 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>-25 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>-50 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>13</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>-75 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>14</td>
<td>țintă +100 $</td>
<td>+25 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>15</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>+0 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>16</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>-25 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>17</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>-50 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>18</td>
<td>țintă +100 $</td>
<td>+50 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>19</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>+25 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>20</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>+0 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>21</td>
<td>țintă +100 $</td>
<td>+100 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>22</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>+75 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>23</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>+50 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>24</td>
<td>stop −25 $</td>
<td>+25 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>25</td>
<td>țintă +100 $</td>
<td>+125 $</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<!--/SVG-->
<ul>
<li>După primele <strong>4</strong> tranzacții: <strong>−100 $</strong>. Cine judecă după o zi, aici
abandonează sistemul.</li>
<li>După <strong>20</strong> de tranzacții (4 câștigătoare, exact 20%): <strong>0 $</strong>.</li>
<li>După <strong>25</strong>: <strong>+125 $</strong> = 6 × 100 − 19 × 25.</li>
<li>Cea mai adâncă scădere din toată seria: −100 $, adică 4R. La risc fix,
asta știi dinainte.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="3-reintrarea-dupa-stop-cu-acelasi-risc">3. Reintrarea după stop, cu același risc</h2>
<p>Pe 10.09 a luat live <strong>două stopuri la rând, de câte 25 $</strong>, și a intrat a
treia oară cu același risc. Pe 02.09: după stop, reintri mai jos, tot cu
riscul fix.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„Deci m-a scos până acum de 2 ori consecutiv […] Și n-am nicio greață"</p>
</blockquote>
<!--SVG:reintrare-->
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 772 363" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — 5 min</text>
<line x1="351.5" y1="108.9" x2="591.5" y2="108.9" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="597.5" y="112.9" fill="#1a5fb4">#3 TP 30.56 = 4R = +100 $</text>
<line x1="141.5" y1="170.1" x2="201.5" y2="170.1" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="2"/>
<text x="597.5" y="174.1" fill="#188a3e">#1 intrare 30.20 (100 acț.)</text>
<line x1="141.5" y1="212.6" x2="201.5" y2="212.6" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
<text x="597.5" y="216.6" fill="#c00">#1 SL 29.95: −25 $</text>
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<text x="597.5" y="235.3" fill="#188a3e">#2 intrare 29.84 (125 acț.)</text>
<line x1="246.5" y1="265.3" x2="306.5" y2="265.3" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
<text x="597.5" y="269.3" fill="#c00">#2 SL 29.64: −25 $</text>
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<text x="597.5" y="283.3" fill="#188a3e">#3 intrare 29.56 (100 acț.)</text>
<line x1="351.5" y1="321.4" x2="561.5" y2="321.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
<text x="597.5" y="325.4" fill="#c00">#3 SL 29.31</text>
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<text x="149.0" y="153.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">#1</text>
<text x="194.0" y="246.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">stop</text>
<text x="254.0" y="214.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">#2</text>
<text x="299.0" y="304.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">stop</text>
<text x="359.0" y="259.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">#3</text>
<text x="554.0" y="85.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">4R</text>
<text x="24" y="351" fill="#555">Două stopuri de câte 25 $, a treia intrare cu același risc: −25 −25 +100 = +50 $.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>#</th>
<th>intrare</th>
<th>stop</th>
<th>distanță</th>
<th>acțiuni</th>
<th>rezultat</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>30.20</td>
<td>29.95</td>
<td>0.25</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>stop, −25 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>29.84</td>
<td>29.64</td>
<td>0.20</td>
<td><strong>125</strong></td>
<td>stop, −25 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>29.56</td>
<td>29.31</td>
<td>0.25</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>TP 30.56 = 4R, <strong>+100 $</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Total <strong>+50 $</strong>. Intrarea 2 are stopul mai strâns, deci mai multe acțiuni:
riscul în bani e același. Ce <strong>nu</strong> faci: dublezi mărimea după două stopuri
ca să „recuperezi". Atunci al treilea stop costă 50 $, nu 25.</p>
<h2 id="4-break-even-da-si-nu">4. Break-even: DA și NU</h2>
<p>Când tranzacția merge, muți stopul la prețul de intrare. De acolo nu mai poți
pierde, doar ieși pe zero. Aici regula e: la <strong>+1R</strong> (25.65) muți stopul.</p>
<p><strong>DA — pullback-ul se oprește deasupra intrării:</strong></p>
<!--SVG:be_da-->
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 755 323" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — 5 min</text>
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<text x="567.5" y="97.5" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 26.40 = 4R</text>
<line x1="246.5" y1="281.0" x2="306.5" y2="281.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
<text x="567.5" y="285.0" fill="#c00">SL inițial 25.15 = −1R</text>
<line x1="291.5" y1="243.5" x2="516.5" y2="243.5" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
<text x="567.5" y="247.5" fill="#b06000">SL mutat la intrare 25.40 = 0</text>
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<line x1="291.5" y1="206.0" x2="561.5" y2="206.0" stroke="#777" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
<text x="567.5" y="210.0" fill="#777">+1R 25.65: aici muți stopul</text>
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<rect x="39.5" y="153.5" width="9" height="15.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="54.5" y="168.5" width="9" height="18.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="69.5" y="180.5" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="84.5" y="180.5" width="9" height="24.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="204.5" width="9" height="16.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="464.0" y1="125.0" x2="464.0" y2="162.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="459.5" y="131.0" width="9" height="25.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="489.5" y="111.5" width="9" height="9.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="504.5" y="99.5" width="9" height="21.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="524.0" y1="80.0" x2="524.0" y2="105.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="519.5" y="86.0" width="9" height="13.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="539.0" y1="80.0" x2="539.0" y2="102.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="534.5" y="86.0" width="9" height="10.5" fill="#c00"/>
<line x1="554.0" y1="84.5" x2="554.0" y2="102.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="549.5" y="90.5" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
<text x="254.0" y="291.5" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">intrare</text>
<text x="299.0" y="180.5" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">+1R</text>
<text x="509.0" y="81.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">4R</text>
<text x="24" y="311" fill="#555">Pullback-ul se oprește deasupra intrării: stopul la zero nu se atinge, ținta da.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<p>Intrare <strong>25.40</strong>, SL <strong>25.15</strong>, TP <strong>26.40</strong> = 4R. La a treia bară după
intrare prețul trece de 25.65, stopul urcă la 25.40. Pullback-ul coboară
până la <strong>25.51</strong>, deasupra intrării. Ținta e atinsă.</p>
<p><strong>NU — scos la zero, apoi prețul merge fără tine:</strong></p>
<!--SVG:be_nu-->
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 755 323" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — 5 min</text>
<line x1="246.5" y1="93.5" x2="561.5" y2="93.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="567.5" y="97.5" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 26.40 = 4R</text>
<line x1="246.5" y1="281.0" x2="306.5" y2="281.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
<text x="567.5" y="285.0" fill="#c00">SL inițial 25.15 = −1R</text>
<line x1="291.5" y1="243.5" x2="366.5" y2="243.5" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
<text x="567.5" y="247.5" fill="#b06000">SL mutat la intrare 25.40 = 0</text>
<line x1="246.5" y1="243.5" x2="306.5" y2="243.5" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="2"/>
<line x1="291.5" y1="206.0" x2="561.5" y2="206.0" stroke="#777" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="2 3"/>
<text x="567.5" y="210.0" fill="#777">+1R 25.65: aici muți stopul</text>
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<rect x="39.5" y="153.5" width="9" height="15.0" fill="#c00"/>
<line x1="59.0" y1="162.5" x2="59.0" y2="192.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="54.5" y="168.5" width="9" height="18.0" fill="#c00"/>
<line x1="74.0" y1="174.5" x2="74.0" y2="192.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="69.5" y="180.5" width="9" height="6.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="89.0" y1="174.5" x2="89.0" y2="210.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="84.5" y="180.5" width="9" height="24.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="213.5" width="9" height="7.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="134.0" y1="207.5" x2="134.0" y2="240.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="129.5" y="213.5" width="9" height="21.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="434.0" y1="159.5" x2="434.0" y2="198.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="479.0" y1="125.0" x2="479.0" y2="162.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="474.5" y="131.0" width="9" height="25.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="489.5" y="111.5" width="9" height="19.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="519.5" y="99.5" width="9" height="21.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="539.0" y1="80.0" x2="539.0" y2="105.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="534.5" y="86.0" width="9" height="13.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="554.0" y1="80.0" x2="554.0" y2="102.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="549.5" y="86.0" width="9" height="10.5" fill="#c00"/>
<text x="254.0" y="291.5" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">intrare</text>
<text x="299.0" y="180.5" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">+1R</text>
<text x="359.0" y="269.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">scos la 0</text>
<text x="524.0" y="81.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">4R, fără tine</text>
<text x="24" y="311" fill="#555">Codița coboară până la intrare (25.39): ieși pe zero, apoi prețul merge la țintă.</text>
</svg></p>
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<p>Aceeași intrare, aceeași mutare. Pullback-ul coboară la <strong>25.39</strong>, un cent
sub intrare: ieși pe <strong>0 $</strong>. Stopul inițial (25.15) n-ar fi fost atins, iar
11 bare mai târziu prețul e la 26.40.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„M-a scos în break-even, a căzut și nou. Da, deci este o volatilitate."</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Cum citești perechea: BE-ul transformă un posibil −25 $ într-un 0 $ sigur,
cu prețul unor ținte ratate. În volatilitate mare (02.09: futures în
premarket, compresie sub banda de 2 deviații standard) te scoate repetat. Nu
forțezi, cauți reintrare — secțiunea 3.</p>
<h2 id="5-trei-pozitii-tp1-tp2-trailing-stop">5. Trei poziții: TP1, TP2, trailing stop</h2>
<p>Din strategia buy doji din curs
(<a href="../03_MODUL_2/13_strategia_3_byh.html">Strategia 3</a>): intri cu un multiplu de
3 și fiecare parte iese altfel. Aici cu 25 $ risc total:</p>
<ul>
<li>stop 0.50 $/acțiune → 25 / 0.50 = 50, rotunjit în jos la multiplu de 3 =
<strong>48 de acțiuni = 3 × 16</strong>, risc <strong>24 $</strong>;</li>
<li><strong>poziția 1</strong> iese la <strong>TP1 = 1R</strong>;</li>
<li><strong>poziția 2</strong> iese la <strong>TP2 = 2R</strong>;</li>
<li><strong>poziția 3</strong> stă pe <strong>trailing stop</strong>: linia e low-ul ultimei candele care
a închis peste high-ul precedentei; urcă doar; ieși când o candelă închide
sub ea.</li>
<li>după TP1, stopul pozițiilor 2 și 3 trece la break-even.</li>
</ul>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 826 383" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
<line x1="216.5" y1="341.0" x2="291.5" y2="341.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
<text x="582.5" y="345.0" fill="#c00">SL 39.50 (toate 3)</text>
<line x1="216.5" y1="296.0" x2="576.5" y2="296.0" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="2"/>
<text x="582.5" y="300.0" fill="#188a3e">intrare 40.00; după TP1 = stop la zero</text>
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<text x="582.5" y="255.0" fill="#1a5fb4">TP1 40.50 = 1R: poziția 1</text>
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<text x="582.5" y="210.0" fill="#6a3d9a">TP2 41.00 = 2R: poziția 2</text>
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<line x1="411.5" y1="165.5" x2="441.5" y2="165.5" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/>
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<text x="582.5" y="124.5" fill="#b06000">trail final 41.95: poziția 3</text>
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<text x="224.0" y="355.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
<text x="284.0" y="225.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP1</text>
<text x="329.0" y="194.0" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP2</text>
<text x="494.0" y="48.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ieșire: close sub trail</text>
<text x="24" y="371" fill="#555">48 acțiuni = 3 × 16. Fiecare poziție iese altfel; stopul comun e 0.50 $ sub intrare.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Poziție</th>
<th>ieșire</th>
<th>calcul</th>
<th>rezultat</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>TP1 40.50, a 4-a bară</td>
<td>16 × 0.50</td>
<td>+8.00 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>TP2 41.00, a 7-a bară</td>
<td>16 × 1.00</td>
<td>+16.00 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>close 41.90 sub trail 41.95, a 18-a bară</td>
<td>16 × 1.90</td>
<td>+30.40 $</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>total</strong></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td><strong>+54.40 $ = 2.27R</strong> (pe 24 $)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Trail-ul a urcat în 8 trepte, de la 40.35 la 41.95. Poziția 3 aduce singură
cât primele două la un loc. Fără ea, tranzacția ar fi fost 1.5R pe 2/3 din
poziție. Fără TP1 și TP2, un stop pe break-even după primul pullback ar fi
lăsat totul la zero.</p>
<h2 id="6-tinte-in-trepte">6. Ținte în trepte</h2>
<p>Pe 03.09 (CHTR, după super buy doji și buy momentum): nu pui un singur TP,
treci rezistențele de deasupra pe rând.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„după care e jumătatea acestui marabuzul […] este o zonă foarte importantă
de resistance. Dacă e să trag fostul suport, devine resistance."</p>
</blockquote>
<!--SVG:trepte-->
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 1004 420" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
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<text x="717.5" y="103.2" fill="#6a3d9a">6. fost suport 59.90 = 7.9R</text>
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<text x="717.5" y="156.0" fill="#b06000">5. 1/2 marubozu 57.70 = 6.2R</text>
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<text x="717.5" y="178.1" fill="#777">4. SMA-200 (linia gri) atinsă la 56.78 = 5.5R</text>
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<text x="717.5" y="194.4" fill="#1a5fb4">3. vârf anterior 56.10 = 5.0R</text>
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<text x="717.5" y="280.8" fill="#1a5fb4">2. R2 52.50 = 2.2R</text>
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<text x="717.5" y="316.8" fill="#1a5fb4">1. R1 51.00 = 1.1R</text>
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<text x="717.5" y="350.4" fill="#188a3e">intrare 49.60</text>
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<text x="717.5" y="381.6" fill="#c00">SL 48.30 = −1R</text>
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<text x="104.0" y="237.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">marubozu</text>
<text x="404.0" y="391.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
<text x="464.0" y="288.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">1</text>
<text x="509.0" y="257.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">2</text>
<text x="644.0" y="171.2" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">3</text>
<text x="674.0" y="149.2" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">4</text>
<text x="24" y="408" fill="#555">Treptele 1-4 se ating în ordine; la SMA-200, sub 1/2 marubozu, prețul e respins.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<p>Context: bază pe suport la ~60, <strong>marubozu de cădere 60.20 → 55.20</strong>, lower
high la 56.10, apoi downtrend până la 48.40. Doji și <strong>buy doji la 49.60</strong>,
<strong>SL 48.30</strong> (risc 1.30).</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Treaptă</th>
<th>nivel</th>
<th>R</th>
<th>atinsă</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1. R1 monthly</td>
<td>51.00</td>
<td>1.1R</td>
<td>a 4-a zi</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2. R2 monthly</td>
<td>52.50</td>
<td>2.2R</td>
<td>a 7-a zi</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3. vârf anterior</td>
<td>56.10</td>
<td>5.0R</td>
<td>a 16-a zi</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4. SMA-200</td>
<td>56.78</td>
<td>5.5R</td>
<td>a 18-a zi, respins</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5. 1/2 marubozu</td>
<td>57.70</td>
<td>6.2R</td>
<td>nu</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6. fost suport</td>
<td>59.90</td>
<td>7.9R</td>
<td>nu</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Cum folosești scara:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>R1 → R2 → vârful</strong> sunt locuri pentru TP1 / TP2 / mutarea stopului.</li>
<li><strong>Vârful, SMA-200 și 1/2 marubozu</strong> stau în 1.60 $ unul de altul: acolo e
„zona foarte importantă". Aici iei grosul profitului. Prețul e respins
chiar la SMA-200.</li>
<li><strong>Fostul suport</strong> e treapta finală, pentru poziția de pe trail, dacă zona
de mai jos se sparge.</li>
<li><strong>Trigger NU:</strong> dacă prețul e deja lipit de o treaptă, nu mai are spațiu
până la următoarea și nu intri.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="7-tinta-realista-12-din-distanta-pana-la-varf">7. Ținta realistă: 1/2 din distanța până la vârf</h2>
<p>Pe 21.08 (PNC, bănci regionale): intri pe pullback acolo unde <strong>coincid mai
multe suporturi</strong>, iar pentru bounce contezi <strong>pe jumătate</strong> din drumul până
la vârf.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„ar putea măcar jumătate din distanța asta să o acopere."</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>DA — ținta la jumătate:</strong></p>
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<text x="597.5" y="240.0" fill="#6a3d9a">confluență S2 + suport monthly 60.00</text>
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<text x="597.5" y="221.8" fill="#188a3e">intrare 60.70</text>
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<text x="597.5" y="254.0" fill="#c00">SL 59.90 = −1R</text>
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<text x="597.5" y="84.0" fill="#777">vârf anterior 66.00</text>
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<text x="597.5" y="152.9" fill="#1a5fb4">TP = 1/2 din distanță 63.35 = 3.3R</text>
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<text x="419.0" y="127.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP atins</text>
<text x="24" y="284" fill="#555">DA: ținta e jumătate din drumul până la vârf. Atinsă în 8 zile, înainte de întoarcere.</text>
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<!--/SVG-->
<ul>
<li>Pullback de pe <strong>66.00</strong> până la confluența S2 + suport monthly, <strong>60.00</strong>.</li>
<li>Intrare <strong>60.70</strong>, SL <strong>59.90</strong> (risc 0.80).</li>
<li>Distanța până la vârf: 66.00 − 60.70 = 5.30. Jumătate: <strong>63.35 = 3.3R</strong>.
Atinsă în a 8-a zi.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>NU — ținta lacomă, la vârf:</strong></p>
<!--SVG:lacom_nu-->
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
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<text x="597.5" y="221.8" fill="#188a3e">intrare 60.70</text>
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<text x="597.5" y="254.0" fill="#c00">SL 59.90 = −1R</text>
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<text x="597.5" y="84.0" fill="#c00">TP lacom = vârful 66.00 = 6.6R</text>
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<text x="77.0" y="68.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">vârf</text>
<text x="299.0" y="256.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">intrare</text>
<text x="449.0" y="109.6" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">se întoarce</text>
<text x="554.0" y="268.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">stop: −1R</text>
<text x="24" y="284" fill="#555">NU: aceeași serie, ținta la vârf. Prețul acoperă 70% din drum, se întoarce și ia stopul.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<p>Aceleași candele. Ținta la <strong>66.00 = 6.6R</strong>. Prețul urcă până la <strong>64.40</strong>
(70% din drum), se întoarce și ia stopul: <strong>−1R</strong>. Cu ținta de 1/2, aceeași
serie dădea <strong>+3.3R</strong>.</p>
<p>Diferența nu e că ținta lacomă e greșită o dată, ci că un bounce dintr-un
pullback se oprește des sub vârf: vânzătorii de la vârf sunt încă acolo.</p>
<h2 id="8-transe-de-14-la-actiuni-scumpe">8. Tranșe de 1/4 la acțiuni scumpe</h2>
<p>La acțiuni de sute de dolari și volatile (10.09, SNDK) nu intri cu toată
poziția: <strong>4 tranșe de câte 1/4</strong>. După higher low prețul poate retesta 1/3,
2/3 din mișcare ca să ia lichiditatea, iar tranșele cumpără exact acolo.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„Pentru că e posibil să retesteze o treime, 2 treimi, până să iau
liquiditatea de pe high-ul ăsta des și aș intra în bucăți."</p>
</blockquote>
<!--SVG:transe-->
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 898 397" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — weekly, acțiune de ~420 $</text>
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<text x="642.5" y="94.2" fill="#1a5fb4">țintă: vârful anterior 470</text>
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<text x="642.5" y="216.6" fill="#777">vârful după HL 434 (aici NU cumperi tot)</text>
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<text x="642.5" y="281.6" fill="#188a3e">tranșa 1: 2 acț. la 418 (confirmare)</text>
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<text x="642.5" y="250.6" fill="#188a3e">tranșa 2: 2 acț. la 424 (1/3)</text>
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<text x="642.5" y="267.6" fill="#188a3e">tranșa 3: 2 acț. la 419 (1/2)</text>
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<text x="642.5" y="335.6" fill="#c00">SL comun 399 (sub HL 404)</text>
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<text x="344.0" y="338.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">HL</text>
<text x="389.0" y="200.6" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">vârf</text>
<text x="599.0" y="68.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">țintă</text>
<text x="24" y="385" fill="#555">4 tranșe × 2 acțiuni, un singur stop. Preț mediu 418.75, risc total 158 $.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<ul>
<li>Low <strong>392</strong>, higher low <strong>404</strong>, confirmat de candela din dreapta la <strong>418</strong>
→ <strong>tranșa 1</strong>.</li>
<li>Prețul urcă la <strong>434</strong> (mișcarea 404 → 434 = 30), apoi retestează:
1/3 = <strong>424</strong> (tranșa 2), 1/2 = <strong>419</strong> (tranșa 3), 2/3 = <strong>414</strong> (tranșa 4).</li>
<li><strong>Un singur stop: 399</strong>, sub higher low.</li>
<li>4 × 2 acțiuni = 8 acțiuni, preț mediu <strong>418.75</strong>.</li>
</ul>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>tranșe</th>
<th>toate 8 acțiunile la vârf, 434</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>risc până la 399</td>
<td>2 × (19 + 25 + 20 + 15) = <strong>158 $</strong></td>
<td>8 × 35 = <strong>280 $</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>profit la ținta 470</td>
<td>8 × 51.25 = <strong>410 $</strong></td>
<td>8 × 36 = <strong>288 $</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>R</td>
<td><strong>2.6R</strong></td>
<td><strong>1.0R</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Dacă retesturile nu vin, ai doar tranșa 1 (2 acțiuni, 38 $ risc) și ratezi
restul. Accepți asta: nu alergi după preț.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„Atenție că e 400 și ceva de dolari. Adică nu e o jucărie."</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Riscul total cu toate tranșele umplute (158 $) trebuie să încapă în riscul
pe care ți-l permiți pe o tranzacție; la 25 $/tranzacție, aceeași structură
înseamnă o singură acțiune în total, deci pe acțiuni scumpe cursul trimite
spre opțiuni.</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="gotchas">Gotchas</h2>
<ul>
<li><strong>Stopul se pune înainte de intrare, apoi calculezi acțiunile.</strong> Invers
(cumperi 100 și cauți apoi unde să pui stopul) riscul nu mai e 25 $.</li>
<li><strong>Nu mări poziția după stopuri.</strong> Diagrama de reintrare: trei intrări, trei
riscuri de 25 $. Dublarea transformă o serie normală de 4 stopuri într-una
care te scoate din joc.</li>
<li><strong>Break-even-ul nu e gratuit.</strong> Diagrama NU: scos la 25.39 cu un cent sub
intrare, apoi 4R fără tine. În volatilitate mare lasă stopul inițial sau
caută reintrare.</li>
<li><strong>Nu schimbi sistemul după o zi proastă.</strong> În seria de 25, primele patru
tranzacții sunt −100 $; totalul e +125 $.</li>
<li><strong>Nu închizi toată poziția la 1R „ca să iau ceva".</strong> Pragul de zero urcă de la
20% la 50%.</li>
</ul>
<hr />
<h2 id="surse">Surse</h2>
<p>Din analiza zilnică (recoltele din <code>harvest/</code>):</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>21.08.2026</strong> — intrare pe confluență de suporturi; ținta bounce-ului =
1/2 din distanța până la vârf (PNC).</li>
<li><strong>25.08.2026</strong> — primul target de profit, apoi reintrare.</li>
<li><strong>02.09.2026</strong> — stop mutat pe break-even (NASDAQ futures); scos repetat
în break-even în volatilitate; după stop, reintri mai jos cu același risc.</li>
<li><strong>03.09.2026</strong> — ținte în trepte R1 → R2 → vârf anterior → SMA-200 → 1/2
marubozu → fost suport (CHTR); piața pare nedreaptă pe termen scurt.</li>
<li><strong>10.09.2026</strong> — risc fix 25 $ la 1:4, două stopuri consecutive live;
eșantion de 20-30 de tranzacții; tranșe de 1/4 (SNDK); acțiunile scumpe
„nu sunt o jucărie".</li>
</ul>
<p>Din curs: <a href="../03_MODUL_2/13_strategia_3_byh.html">Strategia 3: Buy Doji / Sell Doji</a>
(ieșirea eșalonată pe 3 poziții, trailing stop). Documente înrudite:
<a href="01_buy_doji_si_strategia_mici.html">01 — buy doji și MICI</a> (tranșele pe
MICI, ținte în trepte pe un exemplu), <a href="04_pivoti_si_proiectii.html">04 — pivoți</a>
(calculul R1 / R2).</p>
<hr />
<p><em>Ce e completare a mea: toate prețurile, diagramele și tabelele sunt
construite (în transcrieri cifrele sunt nesigure). Din curs vin: riscul fix de
25 $, ținta 4R, cele două stopuri consecutive și a treia intrare, break-even-ul
și faptul că te scoate în volatilitate, reintrarea mai jos cu același risc,
ordinea țintelor în trepte, ținta de 1/2, tranșele de 1/4 și eșantionul de
20-30. Ale mele sunt: formula mărimii poziției și rotunjirea la multiplu de 3,
mutarea la break-even exact la +1R, pragul de zero de 20% și seria de 25 de
tranzacții, regula de trail folosită pe desen (low-ul ultimei candele care a
închis peste high-ul precedentei — varianta din curs cere un gol între bare,
care nu apare pe o serie fără goluri), TP1 = 1R și TP2 = 2R la cele trei
poziții, a patra tranșă la retestul de 1/2, comparația cu cumpărarea la vârf,
nota despre 25 $ la acțiuni scumpe și toate gotchas-urile. Valorile R1 / R2
de la țintele în trepte sunt date, nu calculate pe desen. Fără link-uri
externe: nu am putut verifica niciunul din container.</em></p><nav class="pager"><a class="prev" href="07_context_de_piata.html">← 07. #7 — Context de piață: breadth, sentiment, volatilitate, macro</a><a class="up" href="../index.html#08_ANALIZA_ZILNICA">↑ index</a><a class="next" href="09_earnings_si_optiuni.html">09. #9 — Earnings și opțiuni →</a></nav>
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