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532 lines
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<title>Modul 2 / #14 — Strategia 1: M2D (Mecanic 2 Time Frame-uri)</title>
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<nav class="crumbs"><a href="../index.html">Sumarizări</a><span class="sep">/</span><a href="../index.html#03_MODUL_2">Modulul 2</a><span class="sep">/</span>#14 — Strategia 1: M2D (Mecanic 2 Time Frame-uri)</nav><h1 id="modul-2-14-strategia-1-m2d-mecanic-2-time-frame-uri">Modul 2 / #14 — Strategia 1: M2D (Mecanic 2 Time Frame-uri)</h1>
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<h2 id="tldr">TLDR</h2>
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<p>M2D = strategie 100% mecanică, primă din cele "cel puțin 2-3" strategii
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mecanice ale cursului (restul, discreționare). Numele vine de la
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<strong>mecanic două time frame-uri</strong> (nu are legătură cu robotul de tranzacționare
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"ATM" sau cu faze gen ARMED/PRIMED/FIRE — nimic din transcriere confirmă asta).
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Regula centrală: time frame-ul mare dă direcția (Buy/Sell Momentum, din
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<code>10_buysell_momentum_trigger.md</code>), time frame-ul mic dă trigger-ul de intrare
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după un pullback pe direcția opusă. Stop-loss = extrema ultimelor 4 candele pe
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time frame-ul mic; take-profit = aceeași distanță (1:1); poziția rămasă merge
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pe trailing stop (bull/bear trail). Backtest citat în curs: 39-40 tranzacții pe
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SPY, win rate ~72-80%, risk/reward final 1:2.4–1:2.95 cu trail. Combinațiile
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de time frame recomandate urmează rații Fibonacci (3×15, 5×25, 15×60, 60×300
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etc.).</p>
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<h2 id="cele-3-stiluri-de-trading-de-ce-m2d-e-primul-pe-care-l-inveti">Cele 3 stiluri de trading — de ce M2D e primul pe care-l înveți</h2>
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<p>Cursul distinge <strong>mecanic</strong> (reguli fixe, ca un robot — ori ai semnal, ori nu,
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fără interpretare), <strong>discreționar</strong> (pattern-uri vizuale + indicatori,
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subiectiv — "eu văd flag într-un fel, altul îl vede altfel") și <strong>intuitiv</strong>
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(necesită experiență foarte mare, nu ceva la care ajungi din prima). Recomandarea
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explicită: începe cariera de trader cu strategii mecanice — poți face bani
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constant doar cu ele, fără să ai nevoie de discreționar.</p>
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<h2 id="mapp-harta-tranzactiei-aplicata-la-m2d">MAPP — harta tranzacției aplicată la M2D</h2>
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<p>Aceeași hartă generală (M = pattern/set-up, A = trigger, P1 = plan, P2 =
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mărimea poziției) din restul cursului. M e doar pregătire, nu intrare — abia
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A e semnalul care declanșează tranzacția.</p>
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<h2 id="regulile-long">Regulile — LONG</h2>
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<p><strong>M (set-up):</strong> time frame-ul mare intră în <strong>Buy Momentum</strong>; time frame-ul
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mic intră în <strong>Sell Momentum</strong> (pullback-ul care trebuie să existe).</p>
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<p><strong>A (trigger):</strong> time frame-ul mare <strong>rămâne</strong> în Buy Momentum; time frame-ul
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mic intră în <strong>Buy Momentum</strong> — primul semnal de acest fel, nu al doilea sau
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al treilea. (Opțional, nu obligatoriu pentru temă: "buy the dip" — reintri la
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fiecare Buy Momentum următor cât timp time frame-ul mare rămâne în Buy.)</p>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 600 260" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="10" y="16" fill="#666">time frame mare (ex. 15 min)</text>
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<polyline points="20,90 100,60 180,40 260,30" fill="none" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="2"/>
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<circle cx="100" cy="60" r="5" fill="#00b8c4"/>
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<text x="60" y="45" fill="#00b8c4">Buy Momentum</text>
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<text x="200" y="20" fill="#188a3e">rămâne în Buy pe tot parcursul</text>
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<text x="10" y="140" fill="#666">time frame mic (ex. 3 min)</text>
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<polyline points="20,180 100,150 160,220 260,150 340,120" fill="none" stroke="#333" stroke-width="2"/>
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<circle cx="160" cy="220" r="5" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="115" y="240" fill="#c00">M: Sell Momentum (pullback)</text>
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<circle cx="260" cy="150" r="6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="270" y="145" fill="#188a3e">A: Buy Momentum — TRIGGER, intri long</text>
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</svg></p>
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<p><strong>P1 (plan):</strong>
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- <strong>Stop-loss</strong> = cel mai jos low din ultimele 4 candele (pe time frame-ul
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mic), calculat înapoi de la candela de trigger.
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- <strong>Take-profit 1</strong> = aceeași distanță (stop-entry) proiectată în sus de la
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intrare — risc/recompensă 1:1, nu mai mult, la TP1.
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- <strong>Trail (poziția rămasă)</strong> = bull trail normal (vezi mai jos), sau varianta
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opțională/avansată trail pe swing low.</p>
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<p><strong>P2 (money management):</strong> 2-3 poziții. Poziția 1 iese la TP1; poziția 2 (și
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3, dacă folosești varianta swing low) rămân pe trail, ies la <strong>bear
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reversal</strong> (violarea bull trail-ului). Maxim 0.5% din cont per tranzacție pe
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cont prop, 1-2% pe cont personal (cursul citează un studiu intern al unei
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firme de prop: cei profitabili nu depășesc niciodată 0.5%/tranzacție).</p>
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<h2 id="bull-trail-bear-trail-termen-nou-mecanismul">Bull Trail / Bear Trail — termen nou, mecanismul</h2>
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<p>Prima dată când apare acest concept în acest fișier — îl explic o singură
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dată, aici, înainte să-l aplic pe long și pe short.</p>
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<p><strong>Bull trail</strong> = linia formată de low-ul fiecărei candele care închide peste
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high-ul candelei precedente (adică fiecare nou "etaj" al urcării). Cât timp
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nicio candelă <strong>închisă</strong> nu coboară sub acel low, trail-ul ține — se
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actualizează la fiecare candelă nouă care face un maxim mai mare. Prima
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candelă închisă <strong>sub</strong> low-ul liniei curente de trail = <strong>bear reversal</strong>,
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trail-ul e violat, ieși cu poziția rămasă.</p>
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 352" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">exemplu — 3 min</text>
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<text x="209.0" y="284.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">trail 1</text>
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<text x="299.0" y="158.1" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">trail 3</text>
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<text x="374.0" y="195.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">close sub trail 3 = bear reversal, ieși</text>
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<text x="24" y="340" fill="#555">Trail = low-ul candelei care închide peste high-ul precedentei; wick-ul sub trail nu contează.</text>
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</svg></p>
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<p>Mecanic, de ce se comportă așa: trail-ul urmărește ultimul nivel la care
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"cumpărătorii au ținut" (fiecare low de urcare a fost apărat, altfel prețul
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n-ar fi făcut un maxim nou deasupra). O candelă care se închide sub acel low
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înseamnă că, pentru prima dată, vânzătorii au reușit să domine sub nivelul
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respectiv — exact semnul că valul de cumpărare care ducea trendul s-a rupt.
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Regula "pe candelă închisă, nu pe wick/spike" există ca să nu te scoată un
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puseu de preț de câteva secunde care nu reflectă un dezechilibru real —
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cursul dă explicit exemplul unei tranzacții unde prețul a atins trail-ul de
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mai multe ori cu wick-uri, dar nicio candelă nu s-a <em>închis</em> sub linie, deci
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poziția a rămas activă.</p>
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<p><strong>Bear trail</strong> (pentru short) e oglindit: linia formată de high-ul fiecărei
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candele care închide sub low-ul candelei precedente; violarea = o candelă
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închisă <strong>peste</strong> acel high = <strong>bull reversal</strong>.</p>
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<p><strong>Trail pe swing low/high</strong> (opțional, avansat, nu face parte din regulile
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obligatorii ale temei): în loc să muți stop-ul la fiecare candelă, îl muți
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doar la fiecare swing low nou confirmat (minim doi minime mai mici de o parte
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și de alta). Cursul avertizează explicit că e mai riscant pentru cine e la
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început — nu-l folosești până nu ai făcut sample-urile obligatorii cu
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varianta simplă.</p>
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<h2 id="regulile-short-oglindit">Regulile — SHORT (oglindit)</h2>
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<p><strong>M:</strong> time frame-ul mare intră în Sell Momentum; time frame-ul mic intră în
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Buy Momentum (pullback în sus).
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<strong>A:</strong> time frame-ul mare rămâne în Sell Momentum; time frame-ul mic intră în
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Sell Momentum — trigger, intri short. Opțional: "sell the rip" (reintri la
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fiecare Sell Momentum următor).
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<strong>P1:</strong> stop-loss = cel mai sus high din ultimele 4 candele; TP1 = aceeași
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distanță în jos; trail = bear trail (vezi mai sus).
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<strong>P2:</strong> identic cu long — 2-3 poziții, 0.5%/2% din cont.</p>
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||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 600 300" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="10" y="16" fill="#666">time frame mare (ex. 15 min)</text>
|
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<polyline points="20,40 100,70 180,90 260,100" fill="none" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="2"/>
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<circle cx="100" cy="70" r="5" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="60" y="55" fill="#c00">Sell Momentum</text>
|
||
<text x="270" y="95" fill="#c00">rămâne în Sell pe tot parcursul</text>
|
||
<text x="10" y="170" fill="#666">time frame mic (ex. 3 min)</text>
|
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<circle cx="160" cy="150" r="5" fill="#00b8c4"/>
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<text x="165" y="140" fill="#00b8c4">M: Buy Momentum (pullback)</text>
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<text x="270" y="240" fill="#c00">A: Sell Momentum — TRIGGER, intri short</text>
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<line x1="260" y1="30" x2="260" y2="290" stroke="#999" stroke-dasharray="2 2"/>
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</svg></p>
|
||
<h2 id="confirmare-vs-capcana-care-buysell-conteaza">Confirmare vs. capcană — care buy/sell contează</h2>
|
||
<p>Nu orice apariție a semnalului pe time frame-ul mic contează — doar cel care
|
||
apare <strong>după</strong> ce time frame-ul mare a intrat deja în direcția ta. Un buy pe
|
||
time frame-ul mic imediat după buy-ul de pe time frame-ul mare (fără sell
|
||
între ele) se ignoră — nu e trigger, pentru că nu există pullback, e doar
|
||
continuarea liniară a mișcării ("altfel am strategie de breakout, nu de
|
||
pullback" — citat direct din curs).</p>
|
||
<p><strong>DA — trigger valid (long):</strong> time frame mare Buy → time frame mic Sell
|
||
(pullback) → time frame mic Buy = intri.
|
||
<strong>NU — nu e trigger:</strong> time frame mare Buy → time frame mic Buy direct, fără
|
||
Sell între ele = ignori, nu ai pullback, nu intri.</p>
|
||
<p>Alt caz DA/NU citat explicit în curs: dacă în timp ce prețul face pullback pe
|
||
time frame-ul mic, time frame-ul mare începe să formeze o candelă de Sell dar
|
||
ea <strong>nu se închide</strong> ca Sell (rămâne, la închidere, tot Buy) — trigger-ul
|
||
long e în continuare valid. Dacă însă acea candelă chiar se închide ca Sell,
|
||
setup-ul long se anulează — cauți short de acum încolo, nu mai aștepți
|
||
continuarea long-ului.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="confirmare-esuata-spike-prin-stop">Confirmare eșuată — spike prin stop</h2>
|
||
<p>Cursul dă un exemplu real de short eșuat: prețul a spart peste swing high
|
||
imediat după intrare, cu un spike ("m-a scalpat cu tot"), stop-loss atins —
|
||
deși trendul de fond chiar a continuat în direcția anticipată după acel
|
||
spike. Concluzia din curs, nu o excepție de evitat: face parte din
|
||
funcționarea normală a strategiei (win rate 70-80%, nu 100%) — exact motivul
|
||
pentru care testezi pe eșantioane de minim 20 de tranzacții, nu pe una
|
||
singură.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="exemplu-1-short-riot-cifre-reale-din-curs">Exemplu 1 — SHORT, Riot (cifre reale din curs)</h2>
|
||
<p>Time frame mare 15 min intră Sell → time frame mic 3 min: pullback Buy, apoi
|
||
primul Sell = trigger. Stop-loss = cel mai sus high din ultimele 4 candele pe
|
||
3 min, măsurat la <strong>0.85%</strong> distanță de la intrare. Prețul se mișcă rapid în
|
||
favoarea trade-ului: la jumătatea distanței normale spre TP1 (1:1) profitul
|
||
era deja <strong>1.42%</strong> — dar în loc să ieși la TP1, ai fi continuat cu trail
|
||
(bear trail, actualizat la fiecare candelă nouă cu high mai mic). Trail-ul a
|
||
ținut prin mai multe wick-uri fără să fie violat pe close, ieșirea finală (pe
|
||
violarea reală a trail-ului) a fost la <strong>4.55%</strong> profit.</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 536" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">RIOT — 3 min</text>
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<text x="592" y="113.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL +0.85% (peste ultimele 4 candele)</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="170.0" x2="606" y2="170.0" stroke="#333" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="2 2"/>
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<text x="592" y="164.0" fill="#333" text-anchor="end">intrare la trigger (0%)</text>
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<text x="592" y="215.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">TP1 (1:1) = -0.85%</text>
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<rect x="39.5" y="62.0" width="9" height="24.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="54.5" y="86.0" width="9" height="36.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="69.5" y="110.0" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="84.5" y="110.0" width="9" height="48.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="449.0" y1="449.0" x2="449.0" y2="488.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="444.5" y="458.0" width="9" height="18.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="464.0" y1="434.0" x2="464.0" y2="470.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="459.5" y="443.0" width="9" height="15.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="479.0" y1="410.0" x2="479.0" y2="452.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="474.5" y="428.0" width="9" height="15.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="494.0" y1="416.0" x2="494.0" y2="458.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="489.5" y="428.0" width="9" height="12.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="284.0" y="284.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">-1.42%</text>
|
||
<text x="464.0" y="508.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ieșire pe trail: -4.55%</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="524" fill="#555">Bear trail (punctat): wick-urile îl ating, dar nicio candelă nu închide peste el până la ieșire.</text>
|
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<polyline points="261.5,194.0 276.5,194.0" fill="none" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<polyline points="276.5,224.0 291.5,224.0" fill="none" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<polyline points="291.5,224.0 306.5,224.0" fill="none" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<polyline points="306.5,242.0 321.5,242.0" fill="none" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<polyline points="321.5,284.0 336.5,284.0" fill="none" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<polyline points="336.5,284.0 351.5,284.0" fill="none" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<polyline points="351.5,302.0 366.5,302.0" fill="none" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<polyline points="366.5,344.0 381.5,344.0" fill="none" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<polyline points="381.5,344.0 396.5,344.0" fill="none" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<polyline points="396.5,368.0 411.5,368.0" fill="none" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<polyline points="411.5,416.0 426.5,416.0" fill="none" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<polyline points="426.5,446.0 441.5,446.0" fill="none" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<polyline points="441.5,446.0 456.5,446.0" fill="none" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<p>Risc/recompensă efectiv: 4.55 / 0.85 ≈ <strong>1:5.3</strong> — cursul insistă că astfel
|
||
de tranzacții sunt rare (efect Pareto: 20% din tranzacții aduc majoritatea
|
||
profitului), nu tiparul obișnuit.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="exemplu-2-long-spy-metoda-alternativa-cu-atr-cifre-reale-din-curs">Exemplu 2 — LONG, SPY, metoda alternativă cu ATR (cifre reale din curs)</h2>
|
||
<p>Alternativă la stop-ul pe 4 candele, folosind ATR(10) (vezi
|
||
<code>05_volatilitatea_beta_atr_vix.md</code>): ATR la candela de trigger = <strong>2.88</strong>.
|
||
Regula: 2× ATR distanță de la prețul de intrare pentru stop. Close-ul candelei
|
||
de trigger <strong>517.78</strong> → stop calculat = 517.78 − 5.76 = <strong>512.02</strong>. Low-ul
|
||
real al candelei folosite ca 4-candele-stop era <strong>512.87</strong> — metoda ATR dă,
|
||
în acest caz, o marjă puțin mai mare (~0.80 sub low-ul propriu-zis), utilă
|
||
tocmai ca protecție suplimentară față de un spike.</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 518" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">SPY — 3 min</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="180.0" x2="606" y2="180.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||
<text x="30" y="174.0" fill="#1a1a1a">517.78 — close candelă trigger</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="307.7" x2="606" y2="307.7" stroke="#555" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="2 2"/>
|
||
<text x="592" y="301.7" fill="#555" text-anchor="end">512.87 — low real (stop pe 4 candele)</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="329.8" x2="606" y2="329.8" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="592" y="323.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">512.02 — stop 2×ATR (517.78 − 5.76)</text>
|
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<line x1="329.0" y1="92.4" x2="329.0" y2="162.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="324.5" y="117.1" width="9" height="20.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="344.0" y1="91.1" x2="344.0" y2="156.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="339.5" y="117.1" width="9" height="13.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="359.0" y1="76.8" x2="359.0" y2="152.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="354.5" y="98.9" width="9" height="31.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="374.0" y1="56.0" x2="374.0" y2="123.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="369.5" y="80.7" width="9" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="389.0" y1="56.0" x2="389.0" y2="118.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="384.5" y="80.7" width="9" height="13.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="24" y="506" fill="#555">ATR(10) la trigger = 2.88; 2×ATR = 5.76.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<h2 id="exemplu-3-invalidare-nu-ai-pullback-nu-intri-construit">Exemplu 3 — invalidare: nu ai pullback, nu intri (construit)</h2>
|
||
<p>Long pe SPY: time frame mare 15 min intră Buy Momentum la 517.00. Pe time
|
||
frame mic 3 min, prima candelă închisă după acel Buy e tot Buy Momentum,
|
||
fără niciun Sell între ele.</p>
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 371" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">SPY — 3 min</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="265.3" x2="606" y2="265.3" stroke="#00b8c4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="592" y="259.3" fill="#00b8c4" text-anchor="end">TF mare intră Buy la 517.00</text>
|
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<line x1="44.0" y1="297.8" x2="44.0" y2="318.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="39.5" y="304.3" width="9" height="7.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="59.0" y1="305.6" x2="59.0" y2="329.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="54.5" y="312.1" width="9" height="10.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="74.0" y1="297.8" x2="74.0" y2="329.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="69.5" y="304.3" width="9" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="89.0" y1="297.8" x2="89.0" y2="321.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="84.5" y="304.3" width="9" height="10.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="104.0" y1="284.8" x2="104.0" y2="321.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="291.3" width="9" height="23.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="269.2" x2="119.0" y2="297.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="275.7" width="9" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="258.8" x2="134.0" y2="282.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="265.3" width="9" height="10.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="149.0" y1="243.2" x2="149.0" y2="271.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="249.7" width="9" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="164.0" y1="225.0" x2="164.0" y2="256.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="231.5" width="9" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="179.0" y1="209.4" x2="179.0" y2="238.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="174.5" y="215.9" width="9" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="194.0" y1="196.4" x2="194.0" y2="222.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="189.5" y="202.9" width="9" height="13.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="209.0" y1="178.2" x2="209.0" y2="209.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="204.5" y="184.7" width="9" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="224.0" y1="165.2" x2="224.0" y2="191.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="219.5" y="171.7" width="9" height="13.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="239.0" y1="144.4" x2="239.0" y2="178.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="234.5" y="150.9" width="9" height="20.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="254.0" y1="131.4" x2="254.0" y2="157.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="249.5" y="137.9" width="9" height="13.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="269.0" y1="115.8" x2="269.0" y2="144.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="264.5" y="122.3" width="9" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="284.0" y1="97.6" x2="284.0" y2="128.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="279.5" y="104.1" width="9" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="299.0" y1="87.2" x2="299.0" y2="110.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="294.5" y="93.7" width="9" height="10.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="314.0" y1="69.0" x2="314.0" y2="100.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="309.5" y="75.5" width="9" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="329.0" y1="56.0" x2="329.0" y2="82.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="324.5" y="62.5" width="9" height="13.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<text x="149.0" y="303.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">▲ Buy</text>
|
||
<text x="284.0" y="252.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">Buy direct pe TF mic — NU e trigger</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="359" fill="#555">Lipsește Sell Momentum înainte: mișcare liniară, fără pullback, nu intri.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<p>Regula din curs: se ignoră — nu e strategia de pullback pe care se bazează
|
||
M2D, e o mișcare liniară fără retest. Nu intri până nu vezi Sell Momentum pe
|
||
time frame-ul mic, urmat de un Buy Momentum nou.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="combinatii-de-time-frame-ratii-fibonacci">Combinații de time frame — rații Fibonacci</h2>
|
||
<p>Cursul recomandă perechi mare/mic bazate pe șirul lui Fibonacci (1, 1, 2, 3,
|
||
5, 8, 13…) — motivația: corelațiile pe aceste rații au funcționat mai bine în
|
||
testele cursului.</p>
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>Stil</th>
|
||
<th>Combinații recomandate</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>Scalping</td>
|
||
<td>1×5 (agresiv), <strong>3×15</strong> (recomandat) — evită 1×3, prea puțin spațiu pentru pullback</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>Day trading</td>
|
||
<td>3×15, 5×25, 5×60, 15×60 (poate deveni overnight/swing)</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>Swing trading</td>
|
||
<td>60×300, 60×daily, daily×weekly</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>Position trading</td>
|
||
<td>weekly×monthly</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
<h2 id="gotchas-practice-cele-mai-importante">Gotchas practice — cele mai importante</h2>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>Ia primul semnal, nu al doilea sau al treilea.</strong> Cursul e explicit: "dacă
|
||
ai niște reguli și ai ratat trei-ul ăla, n-ai ce căuta în tranzacție" —
|
||
ratat semnalul = aștepți următorul, nu intri pe amintirea celui vechi.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Nu schimba regulile în timpul unui eșantion de 20 de tranzacții.</strong> Tunezi
|
||
strategia doar între eșantioane, niciodată în mijlocul unuia — altfel nu
|
||
poți ști dacă rezultatul vine din strategie sau din schimbare.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Candelă închisă, nu spike.</strong> Trail-ul (bull/bear) și confirmarea
|
||
trigger-ului se evaluează pe close, nu pe wick — un puseu de preț de câteva
|
||
secunde nu înseamnă că nivelul a fost cu adevărat spart.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Atenție la gap-uri overnight și la candele-anomalie.</strong> Cursul dă exemplul
|
||
Apple: o candelă de 60 min cu ~8% mișcare (earnings) a dat un stop
|
||
nerealist de mare — nu intri mecanic pe o candelă-anomalie de genul ăsta,
|
||
e bun-simț, nu o excepție de regulă.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h2 id="cum-se-leaga-de-restul-cursului">Cum se leagă de restul cursului</h2>
|
||
<p>Buy/Sell Momentum Trigger, definit integral cu mecanism și diagrame în
|
||
<code>10_buysell_momentum_trigger.md</code>, e ingredientul de bază al M2D — aici se
|
||
folosește strict acel semnal, fără Doji (spre deosebire de Strategia 3,
|
||
<code>13_strategia_3_byh.md</code>, care se bazează pe Buy/Sell Doji). ATR ca metodă
|
||
alternativă de calcul al stop-loss-ului e detaliat în
|
||
<code>05_volatilitatea_beta_atr_vix.md</code>.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="referinte">Referințe</h2>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trenddefinition.asp">Investopedia — Trend Trading</a> — logica "the trend is your friend" din spatele strategiei de continuare.</li>
|
||
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/atr.asp">Investopedia — Average True Range (ATR)</a> — formula ATR folosită ca alternativă la stop-loss pe 4 candele.</li>
|
||
<li><a href="https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/trailing-stops">BabyPips — Trailing Stop</a> — mecanica generală a trailing stop, aplicată aici la bull/bear trail.</li>
|
||
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/riskrewardratio.asp">Investopedia — Risk/Reward Ratio</a> — cum se calculează risk/reward-ul citat în exemplele de mai sus.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<p><em>Notă: secțiunile "Bull Trail / Bear Trail — mecanismul" (explicația
|
||
mecanică a de ce funcționează, dincolo de definiția vizuală dată în curs),
|
||
toate diagramele SVG, exemplul 3 (invalidare, construit cu prețuri
|
||
plauzibile pe scara SPY), organizarea în MAPP/DA-NU și secțiunea "Cum se
|
||
leagă de restul cursului" sunt completări ale mele. Exemplele 1 (Riot) și 2
|
||
(SPY, ATR) folosesc cifre reale citate explicit în transcriere — restul
|
||
graficelor arătate live în curs (SPY, Apple, alte semnale din backtestul de
|
||
39-40 tranzacții) nu au avut prețuri suficient de clare/consistente în audio
|
||
ca să fie reproduse exact.</em></p><nav class="pager"><a class="prev" href="13_strategia_3_byh.html">← 13. #13 — Strategia 3: Buy Doji / Sell Doji (SF BYD/SLD)</a><a class="up" href="../index.html#03_MODUL_2">↑ index</a><a class="next" href="15_workshop_2_anxietatea_dupa_intrare.html">15. #15 — Workshop 2: cum gestionezi anxietatea după ce intri în tranzacții →</a></nav>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html>
|