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atm-curs-dl/summaries/08_ANALIZA_ZILNICA/05_volum.html
Claude Agent 790af51b4c 05 volum: regula era a LUI, declarata greșit ca adaugire; plus 5 defecte 
Verificare independenta fata de harvest/ si transcrieri, urmata de o
corectura pe care am facut-o eu in sesiunea principala.

Cazul principal, greșit in ambele sensuri: secțiunea "volumul conduce
pretul" era marcata in completari drept construcția autorului, din trei
remarci de recolta. De fapt e regula lui, si e spusa explicit: Q&A
11.06.2025 are o secțiune intreaga cu exact acest titlu, cu regula
formulata de el - volum in breakout peste vârfurile anterioare cu prețul
inca sub ele, "Asta e strategie de sine stătătoare", pe orice timeframe,
aratata live pe un minut. Deci:
- atribuita la Q&A 11.06.2025, cu ancora verificata, si scoasa din
  completari;
- formularea tare pastrata, pentru ca sursa o susține la putere plina;
- dar scoase cele doua remarci prost citate, unde verificatorul avea
  dreptate: 17.08 e contractie de volum, nu volum care urca, iar la 04.09
  el CERE mai mult volum, deci volumul nu iesise primul (si citatul era
  modificat, cu conditia MBT-10 tăiată). Rămâne PGNY 19.08, care susține.
- adaugat OBV, din aceeasi secțiune de sursa.

Restul:
- patru parafraze ale recoltei nu mai apar ca citate ale lui; citatul din
  10.09 e completat ("deși nu pompeaza bani in compania asta de energie"),
  iar cel de la Bloom are forma reala, cu nota ca "Mantri" e probabil
  "monthly" transcris greșit;
- "volumul e la cer" era atribuit lui 20.08, unde nu apare deloc; mutat la
  03.09;
- "varianta de pe indici" era ilustrata cu doua actiuni, nu cu indici, si
  citatul DHI era la el trigger NU. Rescrisa ca regula pe actiuni, cu
  citatul exact de la LEU.

Desen:
- svg7: "breakout cu volum" era ancorata la 3 bare de bara de breakout
  reala. Mutata pe bara 16, cu assert ca bara etichetata e prima închidere
  peste 38.40 si are volumul maxim de pana la ea.
- svg7 fata de svg8: textul pretindea "aceeasi perioada" si acelasi nivel
  atins, dar pe monthly pullback-ul rămânea mult deasupra lui 38.40. Acum
  pullback-ul monthly se termina cu un hammer care atinge exact 38.40, cu
  varful egal cu cel de pe weekly, si assert pe relatia dintre cele doua
  diagrame.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01MtSTyTmt6AbCL9j5ajEDm1
2026-09-14 06:33:12 +00:00

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<title>Analiză zilnică / #5 — Volumul: țeavă, acumulare, divergență</title>
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<nav class="crumbs"><a href="../index.html">Sumarizări</a><span class="sep">/</span><a href="../index.html#08_ANALIZA_ZILNICA">Analiză zilnică</a><span class="sep">/</span>#5 — Volumul: țeavă, acumulare, divergență</nav><h1 id="analiza-zilnica-5-volumul-teava-acumulare-divergenta">Analiză zilnică / #5 — Volumul: țeavă, acumulare, divergență</h1>
<h2 id="tldr">TLDR</h2>
<ul>
<li><strong>Volum „țeavă"</strong> = volum mare, instituțional. Un breakout sau un buy
momentum îl cere. <strong>Breakout fără volum = eșec</strong>: prețul cade înapoi în
bază.</li>
<li>Pe <strong>monthly și weekly</strong> (timeframe-urile instituționale) urmărești dacă
volumul e în <strong>acumulare</strong> sau în <strong>distribuție</strong>. Distribuție negativă pe
monthly = „nu sunt instituționali" — ideea long slăbește.</li>
<li><strong>Divergența de volum la al doilea picior</strong>: prețul face minim nou,
vânzarea nu. Diferența dintre un double bottom și un bear flag.</li>
<li><strong>Volumul iese primul, prețul după</strong>: volum în breakout peste vârfurile
lui anterioare, cu prețul încă sub rezistență = mari șanse ca prețul să
urmeze („strategie de sine stătătoare", Q&amp;A 11.06.2025).</li>
<li><strong>Monthly bun + weekly deteriorat, dar pozitiv</strong> = pullback-ul e doar
retestul locului crimei.</li>
<li><strong>În același sector</strong>, alegi simbolul cu volumul mai bun pe monthly și
weekly.</li>
</ul>
<hr />
<h2 id="de-ce-urmaresti-volumul">De ce urmărești volumul</h2>
<p>Prețul se mută doar când cineva acceptă să cumpere mai sus sau să vândă mai
jos decât ultimul preț. Un fond care cumpără sute de mii de acțiuni nu poate
face asta într-o singură bară fără să urce prețul. Așa că își lasă urma în
volum pe mai multe bare, pe weekly și monthly. Volumul îți arată <strong>cine</strong>
mută prețul: mulți participanți mici sau câțiva mari.</p>
<p>Ce decizie te ajută să iei:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>intri pe breakout sau nu</strong> — breakout cu volum țeavă = cumpărătorii
mari au absorbit toată oferta de la rezistență; fără volum = nimeni nu a
fost acolo, iar prețul revine;</li>
<li><strong>un bottom e bottom sau bear flag</strong> — dacă la al doilea picior vânzarea
scade, vânzătorii se termină; dacă crește, abia au început;</li>
<li><strong>pe care simbol pui banii</strong> — din doi candidați cu aceeași structură de
preț, cel cu acumulare pe monthly/weekly;</li>
<li><strong>ce faci când un trigger vine fără volum</strong> — nu intri pe el; aștepți
MBT-10 sau pullback (10.09, 04.09).</li>
</ul>
<p>Indicatorul lui de volum (din curs, „Volum H": linie de trend a volumului,
medie și histogramă) e explicat în
<a href="../03_MODUL_2/08_volumul_sangele_pietei.html">Modul 2 / Volumul</a>.
Diagramele de mai jos arată <strong>volumul brut</strong> pe bară (verde = bara
cumpărătorilor, roșu = a vânzătorilor), pentru că acolo se vede direct cine
domină.</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="termenii-o-singura-data">Termenii, o singură dată</h2>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Termen</th>
<th>Ce înseamnă aici</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>volum țeavă</strong></td>
<td>volum mult peste medie pe bara de breakout / trigger; semnul banilor instituționali</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>timeframe-uri instituționale</strong></td>
<td>monthly și weekly; acolo citește el acumularea și distribuția</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>acumulare / distribuție</strong></td>
<td>volumul „se adună" pe cumpărători (acumulare) sau pe vânzători (distribuție), de la o bară la alta</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>pozitiv / negativ</strong></td>
<td>de ce parte a liniei de zero e indicatorul de volum. De aici cele 4 combinații din tabelul de mai jos</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>divergență de volum</strong></td>
<td>prețul face un minim nou, dar volumul vânzătorilor la minimul nou e mai mic</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>relative volume</strong></td>
<td>volumul de azi față de media lui; „majoritatea tranzacțiilor sunt cu relative volume peste 100%" (04.09)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>locul crimei</strong></td>
<td>fostul vârf spart, care la retest devine suport (vezi <a href="03_locul_crimei_si_pullback.html">#3</a>)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3 id="cele-4-stari-ale-volumului-cum-le-rosteste-el">Cele 4 stări ale volumului, cum le rostește el</h3>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>volumul crește (<strong>acumulare</strong>)</th>
<th>volumul scade (<strong>distribuție</strong>)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>sub zero (negativ)</strong></td>
<td><em>acumulare negativă</em> — încă sub zero, dar cumpărătorii recuperă. „Îmi place acumulare negativă" (10.09). Cea mai des citată la bottom</td>
<td><em>distribuție negativă</em> — cel mai rău caz. „Nu îmi place distribuția asta negativă a volumii pe monthly. Adică se vede că nu sunt instituționali" (10.09)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>peste zero (pozitiv)</strong></td>
<td><em>acumulare pozitivă</em> — ideal. „de 3 luni ne acumulăm pozitiv cu volumul după acumulare negativă" (04.09)</td>
<td><em>distribuție pozitivă</em> — scade, dar „rămâne pozitiv" (04.09). Atenție, nu motiv de ieșire</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Tranziția pe care o caută cel mai des: <strong>acumularea negativă care trece
pozitivă</strong> („uitați-vă acumularea negativă a volumului și trece pozitiv
volumul", 04.09).</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="1-volum-teava-la-breakout-da">1. Volum țeavă la breakout: DA</h2>
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<text x="24" y="552.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="299.0" y="370.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">consolidare, volum mic</text>
<text x="434.0" y="111.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">breakout</text>
<text x="494.0" y="244.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">retest</text>
<text x="24" y="658" fill="#555">Bara de breakout: volum 3.4x media ultimelor 20 de bare. Intri la retest, nu pe ea.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<ul>
<li>Uptrend, apoi <strong>16 zile de consolidare</strong> între 47.60 și <strong>50.00</strong>, cu
volum sub cel din trend: nimeni nu se grăbește.</li>
<li>Bara de breakout închide la <strong>52.60</strong>, cu volum <strong>3.4x media ultimelor 20
de bare</strong>. Asta e țeava: la 50.00 stăteau ordinele de vânzare din toată
consolidarea, iar cineva le-a cumpărat pe toate într-o zi.</li>
<li><strong>Nu intri pe bara mare</strong> (10.09: aștepți retestul de 1/3 - 1/2 din
marubozu). Marubozu-ul are open 49.60 și close 52.60, deci <strong>1/2 =
51.10</strong>. Pullback-ul coboară exact acolo, pe volum sub medie: cine vinde
acum sunt cei care iau profit mic, nu instituționalii.</li>
<li><strong>Intrare 51.10</strong> (limit la 1/2 marubozu).</li>
<li><strong>SL 49.40</strong>, sub open-ul barei de breakout. Sub el, bara de țeavă a fost
anulată integral.</li>
<li><strong>TP 54.50 = 2R</strong> (risc 1.70). Atins la 5 bare după retest.</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<p>„Într-un moment, buy momentum, facem break-out deasupra pivotului
monthly. Volumul e țeavă, deși nu pompează bani în compania asta de
energie" (10.09)</p>
<p>„plecăm cu un buy doji, cu volum țeavă și de aici, uitați-vă ce s-a
întâmplat, vedeți ce înseamnă volumul" (04.09)</p>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="2-breakout-fara-volum-nu">2. Breakout fără volum: NU</h2>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
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<text x="721" y="190.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL 47.40 lovit</text>
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<text x="605" y="160" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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<text x="24" y="380.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="509.0" y="242.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">stop</text>
<text x="24" y="486" fill="#555">Aceeași bază. Bara de breakout are volum sub media ultimelor 20: nimeni mare nu cumpără.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<p>Aceeași consolidare, aceeași rezistență la 50.00. Bara de breakout închide
la <strong>50.60</strong>, dar cu volum de <strong>0.83x media</strong> — mai mic decât o zi obișnuită
din bază.</p>
<ul>
<li>Ordinele de vânzare de la 50.00 nu au fost absorbite. Au fost doar
„sărite" de câțiva cumpărători mici.</li>
<li>La 2 bare după breakout, close la <strong>49.30</strong>, înapoi sub rezistență.
Cumpărătorii de breakout sunt în pierdere și vând — volumul <strong>crește pe
cădere</strong>.</li>
<li>Cine a cumpărat la 50.60 cu stop sub bază (47.40) e scos la 5 bare după
intrare.</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<p>„A făcut break-out fără volum, asta a fost problema lui" (17.08, un cup &amp;
handle eșuat)</p>
<p>„ca să facem breakout avem nevoie de volum, ceea ce momentan volumul s-a
deteriorat, de asta ar fi interesant de așteptat un pullback sau poate un
buy doji de aici" (04.09)</p>
</blockquote>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Breakout DA</th>
<th>Breakout NU</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>volum țeavă pe bara de breakout (în exemplu 3.4x media)</td>
<td>volum sub media bazei</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>pullback pe volum mic, spre 1/3 - 1/2 marubozu</td>
<td>volumul crește când prețul cade înapoi în bază</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>deasupra pivotului monthly, proiecție bull, relative strength bun</td>
<td>stochastic overbought + volum deteriorat: aștepți pullback / buy doji</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>Aceeași regulă pe trigger-e, nu doar pe breakout-uri.</strong> Pe Teradyne
(10.09): higher low + buy momentum pe daily, dar fără volum. Nu a intrat:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„Dacă aș fi avut și volum-țeavă aici, ar fost mișto de intrat. Dar nu e.
Și atunci în zona asta de aici aș aștepta un posibil MBT-10."</p>
</blockquote>
<hr />
<h2 id="3-acumulare-la-bottom">3. Acumulare la bottom</h2>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — weekly</text>
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<text x="560" y="189" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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<text x="24" y="284.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="32.0" y="246.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">volum pe vânzători</text>
<text x="344.0" y="278.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">acumulare</text>
<text x="464.0" y="146.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">breakout</text>
<text x="24" y="390" fill="#555">În bază: barele de cumpărători au volum mediu 2.2x față de barele de vânzători.</text>
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<p>Cum arată acumularea pe volumul brut, pe weekly:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>În downtrend</strong>, barele de vânzători au volumul mare: vânzătorii mută
prețul.</li>
<li><strong>În bază</strong> (30.90 - 33.40, 16 săptămâni), prețul nu mai coboară, dar
volumul se inversează: barele de cumpărători au volum mediu <strong>2.2x</strong> față
de barele de vânzători. Cineva cumpără tot ce se vinde, fără să urce
prețul — asta e acumularea. În indicatorul lui apare ca „acumulare
negativă care trece pozitivă".</li>
<li><strong>Breakout</strong> peste 33.40 cu volum de 2.5x media.</li>
</ul>
<p>Ce faci când vezi acumulare: <strong>nu intri pe ea</strong>. E un setup, nu un trigger.
Aștepți trigger-ul (buy doji, buy hammer, MBT-10, vezi
<a href="01_buy_doji_si_strategia_mici.html">#1</a> și <a href="02_mbt10.html">#2</a>).</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„acumularea negativă a volumului îmi spune mie că instituționalii cumpără
dintr-o zonă de stochastic oversold" (19.08, la un preț revenit la nivelul
de acum 11 ani)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Prețul la minimul de acum 11 ani nu e motiv de cumpărare. Acumularea de
volum da.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„volumul în acumulare pozitivă pe monthly de 3 luni, ceea ce e foarte
interesant să vedem asta, pentru că asta arată implicare instituțională"
(17.08)</p>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="4-distributie-la-top-oglinda-pe-short">4. Distribuție la top: oglinda, pe short</h2>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — weekly</text>
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<text x="751" y="157.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare short 64.20</text>
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<text x="30" y="272.2" fill="#1a5fb4">TP 59.00 = 2R</text>
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<text x="24" y="309.2" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="32.0" y="246.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold">uptrend: volum pe cumpărători</text>
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<text x="464.0" y="196.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">breakdown</text>
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<text x="614.0" y="300.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP</text>
<text x="24" y="415" fill="#555">La top: barele de vânzători au volum mediu 2.4x față de cele de cumpărători.</text>
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<ul>
<li><strong>În uptrend</strong>, volumul e pe cumpărători.</li>
<li><strong>La top</strong> (66.60 - 69.10), prețul stă pe loc, dar barele de vânzători au
volum mediu <strong>2.4x</strong> față de cele de cumpărători. Cineva mare iese din
poziție în bucăți, pe spatele celor care încă cumpără vârful.</li>
<li><strong>Breakdown</strong> sub 66.60 pe volum mare. Suportul spart devine rezistență
(locul crimei invers, 04.09).</li>
<li><strong>Retest de jos</strong>: high-ul barei atinge exact <strong>66.60</strong>, pe volum mic, și
închide sub. Bara următoare închide la <strong>64.20</strong>, sub low-ul retestului
→ <strong>intrare short 64.20</strong>.</li>
<li><strong>SL 66.80</strong>, deasupra retestului. <strong>TP 59.00 = 2R</strong> (risc 2.60), atins
după 7 săptămâni.</li>
</ul>
<p>Din sesiuni, pe acțiuni, volumul care trece negativ e motiv să nu intri
long: breakdown sub pivot cu volum care trece negativ = trigger NU (19.08,
DHI); pe LEU, într-un sell doji, „volumul da să duce într-o distribuție
negativă. Asta nu-mi place" (02.09). Short-ul pe retest din diagramă e
aplicarea mea a oglinzii.</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="5-divergenta-de-volum-la-al-doilea-picior-da">5. Divergența de volum la al doilea picior: DA</h2>
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<text x="676" y="138.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP 45.30 = 2R</text>
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<text x="209.0" y="349.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">picior 1: 39.80</text>
<text x="359.0" y="272.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">picior 2</text>
<text x="374.0" y="240.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
<text x="24" y="485" fill="#555">Prețul face minim nou, volumul vânzătorilor nu: la picior 2 e 59% din picior 1.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<p>Double bottom cu <strong>al doilea picior mai jos</strong> — piciorul care ia stop-urile
celor intrați la primul (21.08). Întrebarea e dacă după asta urcă sau mai
cade. Volumul decide.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Picior 1: 39.80</strong>, cu volum de vânzare <strong>95</strong> (maximul din zonă).</li>
<li>Revenire până la <strong>43.60</strong> (neckline).</li>
<li><strong>Picior 2: 39.10</strong> — minim nou pe preț, dar volumul maxim la al doilea
picior e <strong>56, adică 59% din primul</strong>. Vânzătorii au împins prețul mai jos
cu mult mai puține acțiuni: nu mai au ce vinde.</li>
<li>Doji la picior 2, apoi <strong>buy doji la 41.10</strong> → intrare.</li>
<li><strong>SL 39.00</strong>, sub picior 2. <strong>TP 45.30 = 2R</strong> (risc 2.10), deasupra
neckline-ului, atins la 9 bare după intrare. Volumul crește pe urcare.</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<p>„double button cu al doilea la piciorul mai jos cu o divergență masivă de
volum și aici am putea să vedem o urcare, posibil MBT 10 astăzi" (25.08)</p>
<p>„i-a scalpat pe ăștia cu stoploss-ul aici, dar uitați-vă acțiunea
volumului, ce bine s-a dus" (21.08)</p>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="6-fara-divergenta-bear-flag-nu">6. Fără divergență: bear flag, NU</h2>
<!--SVG:divergenta_nu-->
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — daily</text>
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<text x="30" y="196.2" fill="#b06000">neckline 43.60</text>
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<text x="676" y="352.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL 39.00 lovit</text>
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<text x="560" y="313" fill="#777">SMA-20</text>
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<rect x="39.5" y="66.2" width="9" height="20.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="84.5" y="100.2" width="9" height="37.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="137.6" width="9" height="30.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="154.6" width="9" height="37.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="192.0" width="9" height="30.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="24" y="463.6" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="209.0" y="349.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">picior 1</text>
<text x="359.0" y="387.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">picior 2: vânzare mai mare</text>
<text x="404.0" y="226.8" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">bear flag</text>
<text x="464.0" y="387.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">stop</text>
<text x="24" y="570" fill="#555">Același minim nou, dar volumul vânzătorilor crește (1.2x). Buy doji-ul fără volum cade.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<p>Același picior 1, aceeași neckline, același minim nou la al doilea picior.
Diferența: la picior 2 volumul de vânzare e <strong>1.2x mai mare</strong> decât la
primul.</p>
<ul>
<li>Vânzătorii nu s-au terminat, abia au accelerat.</li>
<li>Apare chiar și un buy doji, dar pe volum sub medie. Revenirea de după e
un <strong>bear flag</strong>: bare mici, volum mic, sub neckline.</li>
<li>Bara care sparge low-ul are volum de peste 3x cel din flag.
<strong>SL 39.00</strong> lovit la 6 bare după buy doji.</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<p>„double bottom în formare poate să fie bear flag, poate să fie, dar având
în vedere divergența asta și locul crimei este mai mari șanse să vedem o
urcare" (24.08)</p>
</blockquote>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Al doilea picior DA</th>
<th>Al doilea picior NU</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>minim nou pe preț, volum de vânzare mai mic (în exemplu 59%)</td>
<td>minim nou pe preț, volum de vânzare mai mare (1.2x)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ideal și retestul locului crimei, stochastic oversold</td>
<td>revenire pe volum mic, sub neckline = bear flag</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>trigger: buy doji / buy hammer / MBT-10</td>
<td>trigger fără volum: nu intri</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>Varianta intraday (02.09).</strong> După ce swing low-ul e violat, cauți din nou
intrare doar pe pattern de bottom. Dar dacă volumul e în breakdown sau în
distribuție, nu te grăbi:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„deși volumul este în breakdown, aș lăsa să facă un swing low. Hai să
vedem dacă mai face un swing low mai jos, ca să nu ne grăbim."</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Mai multe variante din sesiuni cu aceeași regulă: <strong>triple doji</strong> la bottom
cu „divergență bull de volum pe weekly" (19.08); intrare în MBT-10 cu gap up
„după un downtrend masiv, cu divergențe pe volum" (03.09); pe histogramă și
pe <strong>linia de trend a volumului</strong>, nu doar pe două bare („uitați-vă la linia
de trend de volum, ce divergență", 04.09).</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="7-volumul-iese-primul-pretul-dupa">7. Volumul iese primul, prețul după</h2>
<!--SVG:volum_conduce-->
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — weekly</text>
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<text x="781" y="70.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP 27.30 = 2R</text>
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<text x="24" y="334.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="224.0" y="328.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">volum mort</text>
<text x="404.0" y="189.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">volumul urcă</text>
<text x="479.0" y="195.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">prețul iese</text>
<text x="24" y="440" fill="#555">Volumul cumpărătorilor urcă 9 săptămâni sub rezistență, înainte ca prețul să iasă.</text>
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<p>Nu toată acumularea e liniștită. Uneori volumul cumpărătorilor urcă treaptă
cu treaptă <strong>în timp ce prețul e încă sub rezistență</strong>. Volumul a făcut
breakout-ul lui; prețul încă nu.</p>
<ul>
<li>Bază sub <strong>22.20</strong>. Primele 10 săptămâni: volum mort (maxim 30).</li>
<li>Din săptămâna a 13-a a bazei, fiecare bară de cumpărători are volum mai
mare decât precedenta, până la <strong>72 (2.4x volumul mort)</strong>. Low-urile bazei
urcă și ele (21.10). Prețul rămâne sub 22.20.</li>
<li>Prețul iese abia <strong>9 săptămâni</strong> după volum: close <strong>23.10</strong>.</li>
<li><strong>Intrare 23.10</strong>, <strong>SL 21.00</strong> sub low-urile care urcau, <strong>TP 27.30 =
2R</strong> (risc 2.10), atins după 11 săptămâni.</li>
</ul>
<p>Ce faci când vezi asta: pui simbolul pe listă și <strong>aștepți trigger-ul de
preț</strong>. Volumul care iese primul îți spune că breakout-ul, când vine, are
combustibil; nu îți dă intrarea.</p>
<p>Regula e a lui, formulată în
<a href="../09_QA/26_2025-06-11.html#volumul-conduce-pretul-breakout-de-volum-inaintea-breakout-ului-de-pret">Q&amp;A 11.06.2025 / Volumul conduce prețul</a>:
dacă volumul e în breakout peste vârfurile lui anterioare, iar prețul e încă
<strong>sub</strong> prețul de la acele vârfuri, sunt mari șanse ca prețul să ajungă
acolo. „Asta e strategie de sine stătătoare." Merge pe orice timeframe; a
arătat-o live pe un minut, cu indicatorul de volum din curs și cu <strong>OBV</strong>
(On Balance Volume: total cumulat, volumul barei se adună când închide mai
sus și se scade când închide mai jos).</p>
<p>În analiza zilnică: „volumul este in breakout peste nivele de aici, pe
instituțional" (19.08, PGNY, la un posibil cup &amp; handle, înaintea
breakout-ului de preț).</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="8-monthly-vs-weekly-care-castiga">8. Monthly vs. weekly: care câștigă</h2>
<p>Volumul se citește de sus în jos. Monthly-ul spune dacă instituționalii
sunt în simbol. Weekly-ul spune ce fac acum.</p>
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<text x="24" y="279.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="224.0" y="203.6" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">consolidare</text>
<text x="284.0" y="181.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">breakout cu volum</text>
<text x="389.0" y="147.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer</text>
<text x="24" y="385" fill="#555">Monthly: barele de cumpărători au volum mediu 1.9x față de barele de vânzători.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<p><strong>Monthly.</strong> Uptrend cu volumul pe cumpărători (barele lor au volum mediu
<strong>1.9x</strong> față de ale vânzătorilor), breakout cu volum peste fostul vârf de
<strong>38.40</strong> (prima închidere peste el, pe cel mai mare volum de până atunci),
vârf la <strong>43.50</strong>, apoi pullback pe volum mic: ultima bară lunară e un
hammer cu codița exact pe <strong>38.40</strong>.</p>
<!--SVG:weekly_retest-->
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 704 674" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — weekly</text>
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<text x="676" y="74.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP 43.50 = 2.2R</text>
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<text x="24" y="556.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="419.0" y="284.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer</text>
<text x="24" y="662" fill="#555">Weekly-ul arată vânzare, dar pe volum mic: e retestul, nu ieșirea instituționalilor.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<p><strong>Weekly, ultimele luni ale graficului monthly</strong> (de la vârful de 43.50 la
hammer). Aici pullback-ul arată urât: 7 săptămâni de
scădere. Dar volumul mediu pe pullback e <strong>52% din cel de pe raliu</strong>. E
„deteriorat", nu inversat.</p>
<ul>
<li>Pullback-ul coboară până la <strong>38.40</strong>, locul crimei de pe monthly: codița
hammer-ului atinge exact fostul vârf.</li>
<li>Bara următoare închide la <strong>39.80</strong>, peste hammer → <strong>intrare 39.80</strong>.</li>
<li><strong>SL 38.10</strong>, sub codița hammer-ului. <strong>TP 43.50</strong>, vârful raliului =
<strong>2.2R</strong> (risc 1.70), atins după 8 săptămâni.</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<p>„volumul rămâne pozitiv, îmi place pe monthly, s-a deteriorat volumul pe
weekly, este negativ. Atinge locul crimei în zona asta de aici și de aici
am putea să vedem un bounce back" (21.08, PNC)</p>
<p>„Îmi place volumul pe monthly, volumul pe weekly s-a deteriorat, dar
rămâne pozitiv și asta poate să însemne un retest al locului crimei, mai
ales că este o companie foarte heavy tranzacționată de instituțional"
(21.08, CrowdStrike)</p>
</blockquote>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Monthly</th>
<th>Weekly</th>
<th>Ce faci</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>pozitiv</td>
<td>pozitiv</td>
<td>ideal: „volum pozitiv pe monthly, volum pozitiv pe weekly" (25.08). Cauți trigger-ul</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>pozitiv</td>
<td>deteriorat / negativ</td>
<td>pullback = retest al locului crimei. Aștepți pattern de bottom / MBT-10 (21.08)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>distribuție negativă</td>
<td>acumulare / „ceva în picior de instituțional"</td>
<td>nu-i place. Rămâne pe listă doar dacă pattern-ul de preț e foarte bun (10.09, 24.08)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>distribuție negativă</td>
<td>distribuție</td>
<td>nu intri: trigger NU și la MICI, și la reintrare (10.09, 25.08)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Cazul din rândul 3, cu semnale care se contrazic:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„volumul da este în distribuție negativă […] pe Mantri, în schimb, cineva
pe instituțional cumpără Bloom Energy." (24.08; „Mantri" e probabil
„monthly" transcris greșit)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Decizia a rămas pe pattern-ul de bottom (higher low + buy doji), nu pe
volum.</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="9-alegerea-simbolului-din-sector-dupa-volum">9. Alegerea simbolului din sector după volum</h2>
<p>Când relative strength se îmbunătățește pe un sector întreg (03.09,
cazinouri), găsești mai mulți candidați cu aceeași poveste de preț. Alegi
după volum, pe monthly și weekly:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>„DKNG o arată chiar mai bine decât Las Vegas Sands. Și pe monthly și pe
weekly la volum." (02.09)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Mai jos, doi candidați construiți cu <strong>exact aceleași bare de preț</strong> până la
decizie: double bottom pe suportul de an (<strong>50.00</strong>, al doilea picior la
<strong>49.70</strong>), close <strong>52.30</strong> la bara de decizie. Singura diferență e volumul.</p>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Exemplu construit (fără ticker) — weekly, candidat A</text>
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<text x="24" y="402.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="24" y="508" fill="#555">Candidatul A: după picior 1, volumul cumpărătorilor e 2.0x cel al vânzătorilor.</text>
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<p><strong>Candidatul A.</strong> După picior 1, barele de cumpărători au volum de ~<strong>2x</strong>
față de ale vânzătorilor. La picior 2, volumul e <strong>42%</strong> din cel de la
picior 1 (divergență). Intrare <strong>52.30</strong>, <strong>SL 49.30</strong> sub picior 2, <strong>TP
58.30 = 2R</strong> (risc 3.00), atins după 10 săptămâni.</p>
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<rect x="369.5" y="471.5" width="9" height="44.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="384.5" y="488.7" width="9" height="27.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="399.5" y="472.9" width="9" height="42.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="414.5" y="490.1" width="9" height="25.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="429.5" y="464.4" width="9" height="51.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="444.5" y="461.5" width="9" height="54.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="459.5" y="487.2" width="9" height="28.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="474.5" y="458.7" width="9" height="57.1" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="489.5" y="455.8" width="9" height="60.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="504.5" y="485.8" width="9" height="30.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="519.5" y="454.4" width="9" height="61.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="534.5" y="452.9" width="9" height="62.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="549.5" y="487.2" width="9" height="28.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="564.5" y="451.5" width="9" height="64.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<text x="24" y="439.8" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="209.0" y="392.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">picior 1</text>
<text x="344.0" y="402.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">picior 2</text>
<text x="419.0" y="230.2" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">decizia</text>
<text x="284.0" y="209.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">distribuție</text>
<text x="524.0" y="298.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ar fi lovit SL</text>
<text x="24" y="546" fill="#555">Candidatul B, același preț: volumul vânzătorilor e 1.8x cel al cumpărătorilor.</text>
</svg></p>
<!--/SVG-->
<p><strong>Candidatul B.</strong> Același preț, dar barele de vânzători au volum <strong>1.8x</strong>
față de ale cumpărătorilor, iar picior 2 are volum mai mare decât picior 1.
Cu aceeași intrare și același stop, ar fi fost scos după 7 săptămâni.</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Alegi A</th>
<th>Lași B</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>acumulare pe monthly <strong>și</strong> weekly</td>
<td>distribuție, sau bun doar pe un timeframe</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>divergență de volum la al doilea picior</td>
<td>vânzarea crește la al doilea picior</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>suport mare (de an), stochastic oversold</td>
<td>aceeași structură de preț nu compensează volumul</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<hr />
<h2 id="gotchas">Gotchas</h2>
<ul>
<li><strong>Nu intra pe breakout fără volum.</strong> Secțiunea 2: close la 50.60 pe 0.83x
media, înapoi sub 50.00 după 2 bare, stop lovit după 5.</li>
<li><strong>Nu intra nici pe trigger fără volum.</strong> Buy momentum pe daily fără
volum țeavă = aștepți MBT-10 (10.09, Teradyne). Buy doji-ul din secțiunea 6
a venit pe volum sub medie și a lovit stop-ul.</li>
<li><strong>Nu judeca un pullback doar pe weekly.</strong> Dacă monthly-ul e pozitiv, iar
weekly-ul „s-a deteriorat, dar rămâne pozitiv", pullback-ul e retestul
(secțiunea 8, diagrama weekly: volum 52% din raliu, retest la 38.40, intrare 39.80). Invers, un weekly
frumos nu salvează distribuția negativă pe monthly.</li>
<li><strong>Overbought + volum deteriorat = nu cumperi breakout-ul.</strong> Aștepți
pullback sau un nou buy doji (04.09, CPK).</li>
<li><strong>Volumul nu înlocuiește trigger-ul.</strong> Acumularea și divergența sunt
setup-uri; intrarea rămâne pe buy doji / hammer / MBT-10 (24.08:
Bloom Energy, distribuție negativă pe monthly, dar decizia a rămas pe
higher low + buy doji).</li>
</ul>
<hr />
<h2 id="surse">Surse</h2>
<p>Din analiza zilnică (recoltele din <code>harvest/</code> și transcrierile lor):</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>17.08.2026</strong> — breakout fără volum = cup &amp; handle eșuat; acumulare
pozitivă pe monthly de 3 luni = implicare instituțională; compresie și pe
volum.</li>
<li><strong>19.08.2026</strong> — triple doji cu divergență bull de volum; acumularea
negativă din oversold la minim de 11 ani; volumul în breakout pe
instituțional; breakdown sub pivot cu volum care trece negativ.</li>
<li><strong>20.08.2026</strong> — spike low + volum instituțional pe weekly → aștepți
MBT-10.</li>
<li><strong>21.08.2026</strong> — monthly pozitiv + weekly deteriorat = retest (PNC,
CrowdStrike); al doilea picior care vânează stop-urile; distribuție
negativă → aștepți pattern (Cisco).</li>
<li><strong>24.08.2026</strong> — double bottom vs bear flag decis de divergența de volum;
distribuție pe monthly, dar cumpărare instituțională.</li>
<li><strong>25.08.2026</strong> — volum în breakout; acumulare negativă care trece
pozitivă; reintrare NU la distribuție negativă.</li>
<li><strong>02.09.2026</strong> — alegerea în sector după volum (DKNG vs Las Vegas Sands);
volum în breakdown → lași prețul să facă swing low; monthly bun, weekly
deteriorat.</li>
<li><strong>03.09.2026</strong> — MBT-10 cu gap up și divergență de volum; acumulare
masivă pe cazinouri; „volumul e la cer" după un buy hammer (spusă și pe
03.08 și 06.08).</li>
<li><strong>04.09.2026</strong> — volum țeavă la buy doji; breakout-ul cere volum;
distribuție pozitivă care rămâne pozitivă; relative volume peste 100%;
linia de trend a volumului.</li>
<li><strong>10.09.2026</strong> — volum țeavă; acumulare negativă; distribuție negativă pe
monthly = nu sunt instituționali; buy momentum fără volum (Teradyne).</li>
</ul>
<p>Din curs: <a href="../03_MODUL_2/08_volumul_sangele_pietei.html">Modul 2 / Volumul: sângele pieței</a>
(OBV, „Volum H", histograma de acumulare/distribuție) și
<a href="../01_MODUL_1/06_divergente.html">Modul 1 / Divergențe</a>. Referințe externe:
<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/onbalancevolume.asp">Investopedia — On-Balance Volume</a>,
<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/volume.asp">Investopedia — Volume</a>.</p>
<hr />
<p><em>Ce e completare a mea: toate prețurile, volumele și diagramele sunt
construite (în transcrieri cifrele nu se văd). Rapoartele de volum (3.4x,
59%, 52%, 2x) sunt alese de mine ca să ilustreze regulile, nu spuse de el.
Intrările, stop-urile și țintele de 2R, retestul la 1/2 marubozu în
secțiunea 1 și short-ul pe retestul de jos din secțiunea 4 sunt aplicarea
mea a regulilor din curs. Tabelul celor 4 stări (acumulare/distribuție ×
pozitiv/negativ) e interpretarea mea a expresiilor lui, legată de
indicatorul din Modul 2; el nu l-a definit așa. Candidații A/B cu preț identic sunt tot o construcție
a mea, ca să izoleze volumul. Regulile (țeavă, breakout fără volum,
divergența la al doilea picior, volumul care iese primul, monthly vs weekly,
alegerea în sector) și citatele vin din sesiuni.</em></p><nav class="pager"><a class="prev" href="04_pivoti_si_proiectii.html">← 04. #4 — Pivoți și proiecții</a><a class="up" href="../index.html#08_ANALIZA_ZILNICA">↑ index</a><a class="next" href="06_structura_trend.html">06. #6 — Structura de trend și pattern-urile →</a></nav>
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