76011566ee
selectia_rvol: 'sub jumatate fata de normal' pentru 0,61 -> '61 % dintr-o zi normala'. mdsrt_exemplu: legenda spunea ca nivelurile SPY sunt 'reale, din curs'; sunt reconstruite dupa ilustratia unui sumar Q&A. mbt_iesire: 2.04R -> 2,0R, cifra sursei, prin rotunjire la afisare, fara sa se atinga nicio serie; assert-ul verifica acum textul din SVG-ul randat, nu doar valoarea bruta. atmi_exemplu: '13 luni mai tarziu' era citit ca fapt al materialului - acum spune ca 13 e cifra desenului, materialul da 'aproximativ un an'; si cele patru marcaje de completare din desenele atmi sunt uniformizate. Plus cei trei agenti opencode scrisi pentru rundele astea: verif_strat, corector_strat, reparator_grafic. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ThN7ixZrowca8aTGrK1MUJ
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<nav class="crumbs"><a href="../index.html">Sumarizări</a><span class="sep">/</span><a href="../index.html#17_STRATEGII">Strategii</a><span class="sep">/</span>6. Buy hammer și MBT-10</nav><h1 id="6-buy-hammer-si-mbt-10">6. Buy hammer și MBT-10</h1>
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<p><strong>Etichete:</strong> <code>long</code> <code>short</code> · <code>swing</code> pe daily · <code>acțiuni US</code> <code>futures</code> <code>BVB</code> ·
|
||
dificultate <code>2/5</code> (buy hammer) / <code>4/5</code> (MBT-10) · merge pe prop (cont finanțat
|
||
de o firmă): buy hammer da, cu ajustări; MBT-10 parțial · merge pe BVB: buy
|
||
hammer da, doar long; MBT-10 nu, ca sistem</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Cum citești capitolul:</strong> textul e explicația mea a materialului de curs și
|
||
nu adaugă reguli peste el; acolo unde materialul nu spune, completez, iar
|
||
bucata aceea începe cu <strong>Completare proprie</strong>. Diagramele sunt exemple
|
||
construite, cu excepția LABU și Tesla, unde cifrele marcate sunt ale cursului.
|
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Trimiterile la lecțiile din care vine fiecare pas stau separat, în
|
||
<a href="fise/06_hammer_mbt10_surse.html"><code>fise/06_hammer_mbt10_surse.md</code></a>.</p>
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<p>Capitolul are <strong>două strategii</strong>, nu una. Ele se ating (MBT-10 apare des pe o
|
||
zi care are și un hammer), dar se fac altfel, așa că fiecare are procedura ei
|
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mecanică: <a href="#nivelul-2a">buy hammer</a> în cinci pași, <a href="#nivelul-2b">MBT-10</a> tot
|
||
în cinci. Nu le amesteca la ecran.</p>
|
||
<h1 id="nivelul-1-din-avion">Nivelul 1 — Din avion</h1>
|
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<h2 id="de-ce-sunt-doua-jumatati">De ce sunt două jumătăți</h2>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: harta -->
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<p><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 700 610" width="700" height="610" role="img" aria-label="Harta capitolului: acelasi trigger de bottom, doua naturi - buy hammer, pattern standard public, si MBT-10, cutie neagra cu indicator proprietar">
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<text x="350.0" y="34.0" font-size="19" font-weight="700" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">Același trigger de bottom, două naturi</text>
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<text x="350.0" y="58.0" font-size="14" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">buy hammer (public) vs. MBT-10 (cutie neagră)</text>
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<text x="56.0" y="108.0" font-size="15" font-weight="700" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="start">Trigger de bottom: unde + când</text>
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<text x="56.0" y="130.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">Setup-urile de fond — suport, locul crimei, double bottom, buy doji,</text>
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<text x="56.0" y="148.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">divergență de volum — spun UNDE. Trigger-ul de candelă spune CÂND.</text>
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<line x1="191.0" y1="172.0" x2="509.0" y2="172.0" stroke="#777777" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="191.0" y1="172.0" x2="191.0" y2="190.0" stroke="#777777" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="509.0" y1="172.0" x2="509.0" y2="190.0" stroke="#777777" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<text x="56.0" y="216.0" font-size="15" font-weight="700" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="start">BUY HAMMER — pattern standard</text>
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<text x="56.0" y="260.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">„formă de candelă + downtrend”</text>
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<text x="56.0" y="312.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">„trigger: close peste</text>
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<text x="56.0" y="329.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">high-ul hammer-ului”</text>
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<text x="56.0" y="346.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="start"></text>
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<text x="56.0" y="364.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">„fără niciun indicator proprietar”</text>
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<text x="56.0" y="432.0" font-size="13" font-weight="700" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="start">„pe BVB: se poate rula long-only”</text>
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<text x="374.0" y="216.0" font-size="15" font-weight="700" fill="#333333" text-anchor="start">MBT-10 — cutie neagră</text>
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<text x="374.0" y="260.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">„formula nu e publică nicăieri”</text>
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<text x="374.0" y="294.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="start"></text>
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<text x="374.0" y="312.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">„reconstituibil doar:</text>
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<text x="374.0" y="329.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">close peste pivotul daily”</text>
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<text x="374.0" y="346.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="start"></text>
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<text x="374.0" y="364.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#000000" text-anchor="start">„scanner + indicator proprietar”</text>
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<line x1="374.0" y1="406.0" x2="644.0" y2="406.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<text x="374.0" y="432.0" font-size="13" font-weight="700" fill="#c00" text-anchor="start">„pe BVB: nu, ca sistem”</text>
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<line x1="191.0" y1="460.0" x2="509.0" y2="460.0" stroke="#777777" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="110.0" y="500.0" width="480.0" height="56.0" rx="8" fill="#fdf0e0" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.6"/>
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<text x="350.0" y="524.0" font-size="14" font-weight="700" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">Ce rămâne pe BVB: hammer la un nivel major</text>
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<text x="350.0" y="544.0" font-size="14" font-weight="700" fill="#000000" text-anchor="middle">+ close peste PPD</text>
|
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<text x="350.0" y="578.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">Regulile = materialul cursului (cu trimiteri); verdictul de BVB = judecata mea</text>
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<text x="350.0" y="596.0" font-size="13" font-weight="400" fill="#777777" text-anchor="middle">din secțiunea Transfer.</text>
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<!-- /DIAGRAMA: harta -->
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<p><strong>Buy hammer</strong> e un pattern de o candelă: îl vezi cu ochiul, pe orice
|
||
platformă, fără niciun indicator. Îl poți desena, îl poți verifica singur pe
|
||
un grafic vechi și îl poți duce pe BVB.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>MBT-10</strong> e un semnal al sistemului ATM, adică un indicator proprietar
|
||
(scris de autor, vândut cu platforma lui). Formula lui nu apare nicăieri în
|
||
material: nu se știe ce măsoară și nici ce înseamnă „10". De aceea îi spun
|
||
<strong>cutie neagră</strong> — un instrument din care vezi doar rezultatul, nu și
|
||
calculul. Singura bucată din el pe care o poți reface singur e o condiție de
|
||
preț: ziua trebuie să se închidă peste pivotul daily.</p>
|
||
<p>Asta schimbă ce poți face cu fiecare: pe buy hammer poți exersa retroactiv pe
|
||
grafic, pe MBT-10 nu, pentru că n-ai cu ce marca semnalul pe barele vechi.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="ce-e-un-hammer">Ce e un hammer</h2>
|
||
<p>Un hammer e o candelă cu <strong>corpul mic, sus în bară, și cu un fitil lung în
|
||
jos</strong>. Corpul e bucata groasă, între prețul de deschidere (open) și cel de
|
||
închidere (close); fitilul e linia subțire care iese din corp și arată cât de
|
||
departe a ajuns prețul înăuntrul perioadei. Un fitil lung în jos înseamnă că
|
||
vânzătorii au împins prețul mult mai jos, dar nu l-au putut ține acolo:
|
||
cumpărătorii l-au adus înapoi până la închidere.</p>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_forma -->
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 1000 648" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24.0" y="30.0" fill="#333" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:14px">Ce e un hammer și ce nu — aceeași bară, 63.30 sus și 62.10 jos</text>
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<text x="298.0" y="173.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">hammer</text>
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<text x="636.0" y="173.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">nu e hammer</text>
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<line x1="250" y1="522.0" x2="976" y2="522.0" stroke="#bbb" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="24.0" y="204.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="start">cât de sus a urcat prețul: 63.30</text>
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<text x="24.0" y="536.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="start">cât de jos a coborât: 62.10</text>
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<text x="24.0" y="310.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="start">treimea de sus începe la 62.90</text>
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<text x="350.0" y="550.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">DA: corp 0.25,</text>
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<text x="350.0" y="566.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle">fitil jos 0.95 = 3,8x corpul</text>
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<rect x="477.0" y="210.0" width="26" height="104.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="490.0" y="550.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">DA, la limită:</text>
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<text x="490.0" y="566.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle">corp 0.40, fitil 0.80</text>
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<rect x="677.0" y="210.0" width="26" height="182.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="690.0" y="550.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">NU: corp 0.70,</text>
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<text x="690.0" y="566.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle">fitil jos 0.50 = 0,7x corpul</text>
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<rect x="847.0" y="431.0" width="26" height="52.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="860.0" y="550.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">NU: corpul e jos, fitilul</text>
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<text x="860.0" y="566.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle">lung e sus — alt pattern</text>
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<text x="284.0" y="252.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">corpul: mic și sus în bară</text>
|
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<text x="284.0" y="266.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">ziua s-a închis aproape de maxim —</text>
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<text x="284.0" y="280.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">cumpărătorii au ținut până la final</text>
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<polygon points="347.0,392.0 340.1,397.7 338.3,389.9" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<text x="284.0" y="395.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">fitilul de jos, lung</text>
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||
<text x="284.0" y="409.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">vânzătorii au dus prețul până la 62.10,</text>
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<text x="284.0" y="423.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">dar cumpărătorii l-au adus înapoi sus</text>
|
||
<text x="370.0" y="287.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="start">open 63.05</text>
|
||
<text x="370.0" y="206.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="start">close = high 63.30</text>
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<polygon points="704.0,301.0 700.8,292.6 708.8,293.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="730.0" y="88.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="start" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">corp prea gros</text>
|
||
<text x="730.0" y="102.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="start">fitilul de jos nu e nici cât corpul —</text>
|
||
<text x="730.0" y="116.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="start">nimeni n-a fost respins jos</text>
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<line x1="860.0" y1="176.0" x2="860.0" y2="217.6" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.6"/>
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<polygon points="860.0,225.6 856.0,217.6 864.0,217.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="860.0" y="138.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold;font-size:12px">fitilul lung e sus, nu jos</text>
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||
<text x="860.0" y="152.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle">aici cumpărătorii au fost respinși;</text>
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||
<text x="860.0" y="166.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle">e inverted hammer, alt pattern</text>
|
||
<text x="24.0" y="608.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="start">Hammer = fitilul de jos e cel puțin dublul corpului ȘI corpul stă în treimea de sus a barei (aici peste 62.90).</text>
|
||
<text x="24.0" y="624.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="start">Pragul „fitil ≥ 2x corpul" e al cursului; „corpul în treimea de sus" e traducerea mea a lui „corp mic sus, fitil de sus aproape inexistent".</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_forma -->
|
||
|
||
<p>Regula de verificat, nu de ghicit din ochi: <strong>fitilul de jos trebuie să fie
|
||
cel puțin de două ori cât corpul</strong>, iar corpul trebuie să stea în treimea de
|
||
sus a barei. Pe candela A din diagramă: corp 0.25, fitil de jos 0.95, adică
|
||
de 3,8 ori corpul — hammer. Pe candela C: corp 0.70, fitil 0.50 — nu e.</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p><strong>Completare proprie:</strong> „cel puțin dublul corpului" e pragul cursului.
|
||
„Corpul în treimea de sus" e traducerea mea a lui „corp mic sus, fitil de
|
||
sus aproape inexistent", ca să ai ce măsura, nu doar ce simți.</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<h2 id="ce-face-buy-hammer">Ce face buy hammer</h2>
|
||
<p>Prețul a scăzut mai multe zile la rând și apare un hammer lângă un nivel la
|
||
care prețul a mai întors în trecut. Nu cumperi pe hammer. Aștepți ca
|
||
<strong>următoarea candelă să se închidă peste vârful lui</strong> (peste high-ul lui) —
|
||
abia asta arată că au preluat controlul cumpărătorii. Atunci cumperi, pui
|
||
stopul sub fitilul hammer-ului, vinzi o parte când prețul a urcat cât riscai
|
||
și lași restul pe un stop care urcă după preț.</p>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_ansamblu -->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 720 559" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Buy hammer — daily (ticker ilustrativ XYZ, din lecția de pattern)</text>
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<text x="30" y="376.4" fill="#c00">SL 62.05 — sub low-ul hammer-ului</text>
|
||
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||
<text x="692" y="334.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 63.35</text>
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||
<text x="692" y="251.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP 65.95 = 2R</text>
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<rect x="324.5" y="412.1" width="9" height="66.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="339.5" y="408.4" width="9" height="70.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="354.5" y="435.7" width="9" height="42.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="369.5" y="437.9" width="9" height="40.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="384.5" y="439.3" width="9" height="39.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="399.5" y="441.6" width="9" height="36.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="414.5" y="440.1" width="9" height="38.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="429.5" y="438.6" width="9" height="39.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="444.5" y="437.1" width="9" height="41.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="459.5" y="434.2" width="9" height="44.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="474.5" y="431.2" width="9" height="47.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="489.5" y="435.7" width="9" height="42.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="504.5" y="437.9" width="9" height="40.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="519.5" y="440.1" width="9" height="38.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="534.5" y="441.6" width="9" height="36.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<text x="24" y="402.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
<text x="329.0" y="396.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer 63.30 / 62.10</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="500.4" fill="#188a3e">bara 20: confirmare — close 63.35 peste high-ul hammer-ului 63.30 (intrare)</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="533" fill="#555">Exemplu ilustrativ (XYZ) din lecția de pattern; prețurile sunt cele ale lecției,</text><text x="24" y="549" fill="#555">structura barelor dintre ele e construită.</text></svg></p>
|
||
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_ansamblu -->
|
||
|
||
<p>De la stânga la dreapta: 19 zile de scădere, hammer-ul (high 63.30, low
|
||
62.10, deci un fitil de jos de 0.95 sub un corp de 0.25), apoi ziua care se
|
||
închide la 63.35, peste 63.30 — acolo intri. Stopul e la 62.05, cu 5 cenți
|
||
sub low-ul hammer-ului, deci riști 1.30 pe acțiune. Ținta din exemplul lecției
|
||
e la 65.95, adică de două ori riscul.</p>
|
||
<p>Cursul dă pattern-ului cam <strong>65-70 %</strong> reușită, iar într-o sesiune de
|
||
întrebări „așa la 60 %" după o scădere lungă. Adică pierzi un trade din trei.
|
||
De aceea stopul nu e opțional.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="ce-face-mbt-10">Ce face MBT-10</h2>
|
||
<p>MBT-10 nu e aproape niciodată ideea în sine: e <strong>ultima bifă</strong> după ce ai deja
|
||
un motiv de bottom — un suport, un double bottom, un buy doji, o divergență de
|
||
volum. Ideea spune <em>unde</em> ai voie să te uiți; MBT-10 spune <em>când</em> intri. Și
|
||
contează un singur moment: <strong>închiderea barei</strong>. Ce se vede intraday, cât timp
|
||
ziua e în desfășurare, nu e semnal.</p>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: mbt_ansamblu -->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 780 526" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 — pullback în locul crimei + hammer, închidere la 54.60 (exemplu construit)</text>
|
||
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||
<text x="30" y="192.0" fill="#777">locul crimei 52.10 (fost vârf spart)</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="200.0" x2="766" y2="200.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="752" y="194.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL 52.00 — sub codița hammer-ului</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="148.0" x2="766" y2="148.0" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="752" y="142.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 54.60 (close în MBT-10)</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="62.0" x2="766" y2="62.0" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="752" y="56.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP 58.90 = 1.65R</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="356.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="479.0" y="218.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer — codița pe 52.10</text>
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<text x="494.0" y="110.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 închis</text>
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<text x="24" y="454.0" fill="#188a3e">Legendă: MBT-10 nu se desenează — formula nu e publică ; se marchează doar bara la care</text>
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<text x="24" y="471.0" fill="#188a3e">semnalul s-a închis. Nivelurile sunt exemplul construit al sumarizatorului.</text>
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<text x="24" y="488.0" fill="#188a3e">bara 9 = fostul vârf 52.10 (locul crimei); bara 21 = vârful nou 58.90.</text>
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<text x="24" y="505.0" fill="#188a3e">bara 29 = hammer: o 52.20, h/c 53.40, l 52.10 (codița exact pe locul crimei); bara 30 = ziua închisă în MBT-10.</text>
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</svg></p>
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<!-- /DIAGRAMA: mbt_ansamblu -->
|
||
|
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<p>Pe diagramă: un vârf vechi la 52.10 a fost spart, prețul a urcat la 58.90 și
|
||
apoi s-a întors exact la 52.10 — la <strong>locul crimei</strong>, adică fostul vârf care
|
||
acum ține de dedesubt (îl ai în glosar). Acolo apare un hammer cu codița fix
|
||
pe 52.10, iar ziua următoare se închide în MBT-10 la 54.60: acolo intri.
|
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Stopul stă la 52.00, sub codiță și sub locul crimei; ținta e vârful anterior,
|
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58.90.</p>
|
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<h2 id="mini-glosar">Mini-glosar</h2>
|
||
<p>Termenii de mai jos apar în capitol. Cei care au formă pe grafic sunt și
|
||
desenați — scrie lângă fiecare pe ce diagramă îl vezi.</p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>Open, close, high, low</strong> — cele patru prețuri ale unei candele: cu cât a
|
||
deschis perioada, cu cât a închis, cât de sus a urcat și cât de jos a
|
||
coborât. Corpul e între open și close, fitilele merg până la high și low.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Hammer</strong> — candelă cu corp mic în treimea de sus a barei și fitil de jos
|
||
de cel puțin două ori cât corpul. Exemplu: candela A din diagrama „ce e un
|
||
hammer", cu corp 0.25 și fitil 0.95.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Hanging man</strong> — exact aceeași formă, dar apărută <strong>după o urcare</strong>. Atunci
|
||
nu mai e semnal de cumpărare, ci un avertisment de scădere. Vezi panoul din
|
||
dreapta al diagramei de la <a href="#pasul-a1">pasul A1</a>: aceeași bară 63.30 / 62.10,
|
||
alt context, alt sens.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Inverted hammer</strong> — corpul jos și fitilul lung în sus (candela D din
|
||
diagrama de formă). E alt pattern; nu-l confunda cu hammer-ul.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Downtrend / uptrend</strong> — o serie de candele care coboară, respectiv urcă,
|
||
cu maxime și minime tot mai jos (sau tot mai sus). În capitol, „scădere" și
|
||
„urcare".</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Nivel major (suport, rezistență, pivot)</strong> — un preț la care piața a mai
|
||
reacționat. Un <strong>suport</strong> e sub preț și l-a mai oprit din coborât; o
|
||
<strong>rezistență</strong> e deasupra și l-a mai oprit din urcat. Un <strong>pivot</strong> e un nivel
|
||
calculat din maximul, minimul și închiderea perioadei trecute — daily,
|
||
weekly, monthly sau quarterly, după perioada folosită. Exemplu: suportul
|
||
monthly 62.00 din panoul stâng al diagramei de la <a href="#pasul-a2">pasul A2</a>.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Pivotul daily (PPD)</strong> — pivotul calculat din ziua precedentă. Se
|
||
recalculează în fiecare zi, deci nu e o linie fixă pe grafic. Exemplu: 89.60
|
||
pe diagrama de la <a href="#pasul-b3">pasul B3</a>.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Locul crimei</strong> — un vârf vechi pe care prețul l-a spart și la care se
|
||
întoarce mai târziu, de data asta pe dedesubt. Cine a vândut acolo prima
|
||
dată are acum de recuperat, iar cine a ratat urcarea așteaptă exact acolo.
|
||
Exemplu: 52.10 pe diagrama de ansamblu a MBT-10.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Double bottom</strong> — două minime aproape la același preț, cu o urcare între
|
||
ele. Exemplu: 87.60 și 87.55 pe diagrama de la <a href="#pasul-b1">pasul B1</a> —
|
||
5 cenți diferență, adică 0,06 %.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Swing low</strong> — cel mai jos low al unei coborâri scurte, confirmat de
|
||
barele de după, care nu-l mai rup. Se folosește ca loc pentru stopul care
|
||
urcă. Exemplu: 65.10, apoi 66.00, pe diagrama de la <a href="#pasul-a5">pasul A5</a>.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Trigger</strong> — evenimentul care îți dă voie să intri. La buy hammer: o
|
||
închidere peste high-ul hammer-ului. La MBT-10: închiderea barei în semnal.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Stop-loss (SL)</strong> — prețul la care ieși automat cu pierdere, pentru că
|
||
ideea s-a dovedit greșită. Îl pui în platformă odată cu intrarea.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>1R</strong> — cât pierzi pe acțiune dacă te lovește stopul. Intri la 63.35,
|
||
stopul e la 62.05, deci 1R = 1.30; „+2R" înseamnă 2.60 pe acțiune.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Take-profit (TP)</strong> — prețul la care iei profitul. „1:1" înseamnă o țintă
|
||
la exact distanța stopului: 63.35 + 1.30 = 64.65.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Trailing stop (trail)</strong> — un stop pe care îl urci după preț, dar nu-l
|
||
cobori niciodată. Ieși la prima închidere sub el. Vezi linia portocalie în
|
||
trepte de la <a href="#pasul-a5">pasul A5</a>.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Tranșe</strong> — poziția împărțită în bucăți, ca să ieși în mai multe momente:
|
||
jumătate la prima țintă, jumătate pe trail.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Long și short</strong> — „long" înseamnă că ai cumpărat și câștigi dacă prețul
|
||
urcă. „Short" e invers: vinzi acum acțiuni împrumutate de la broker și le
|
||
cumperi înapoi mai târziu, deci câștigi dacă prețul scade.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Short covering</strong> — cumpărăturile celor care erau pe short și ies. Sunt
|
||
cumpărături adevărate, de aceea o întoarcere de la un minim poate fi bruscă.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Gap</strong> — un gol între două candele: prețul deschide mult peste (gap up) sau
|
||
mult sub (gap down) închiderea de ieri, fără să tranzacționeze între. Un gap
|
||
down sare peste stopuri, de asta contează. Vezi diagrama din
|
||
<a href="#gap-down">Nivelul 3</a>.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Divergență de volum</strong> — prețul face un minim nou, dar volumul de pe el e
|
||
mai mic decât pe minimul dinainte. Semn că vânzarea a slăbit. Exemplu:
|
||
piciorul 2 de pe diagrama de la <a href="#pasul-b1">pasul B1</a>.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Acumulare</strong> — volum care „se adună" pe cumpărători de la o bară la alta,
|
||
semn că cineva cumpără constant; opusul e distribuția, pe vânzători.
|
||
Definiția e din lecția de volum.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Cutie neagră</strong> — instrument din care vezi doar rezultatul, nu și formula.
|
||
Aici: MBT-10.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Stochastic</strong> — oscilator calculat din preț, folosit ca filtru de
|
||
supravânzare / supracumpărare; aici contează când e oversold pe monthly și
|
||
weekly. Explicația e a mea (completare proprie).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Earnings</strong> — ziua în care compania își publică rezultatele trimestriale.
|
||
Prețul poate sări peste noapte, peste stopul tău.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Gamble trade</strong> — un setup corect pe grafic, dar cu earnings în zilele
|
||
următoare: nu mai e trade, e pariu, fiindcă stopul nu te mai protejează.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Prop</strong> — cont pus la dispoziție de o firmă, cu reguli proprii de pierdere
|
||
zilnică.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Overnight</strong> — poziția ținută peste noapte, de la o închidere la alta;
|
||
riscul e că prețul se mișcă în afara orelor de tranzacționare, peste stop.
|
||
Explicația e a mea (completare proprie).</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Spread</strong> — diferența dintre Ask (prețul la care cumperi) și Bid (prețul la
|
||
care vinzi); costul de a intra și ieși imediat din piață. Definiția e din
|
||
lecția de money management.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>BET</strong> — indicele principal al Bursei de Valori București; numele lichide
|
||
din secțiunea Transfer vin din componența lui. Explicația e a mea
|
||
(completare proprie).</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h2 id="cele-doua-fraze-de-decizie">Cele două fraze de decizie</h2>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p><strong>Buy hammer.</strong> Cumpăr când, după o scădere, apare un hammer lângă un nivel
|
||
major și candela următoare se închide peste high-ul lui; stopul stă sub
|
||
low-ul hammer-ului, prima jumătate iese la 1:1, restul pe trail.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>MBT-10.</strong> Cumpăr când, peste o idee de bottom deja formată (suport, locul
|
||
crimei, double bottom, buy doji, divergență de volum), ziua se <strong>închide</strong> în
|
||
MBT-10 — pe daily, cu un close peste pivotul daily; ies dacă prețul închide
|
||
sub structura pe care s-a format ideea.</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p>Pe short, ambele au oglinda lor: <strong>Sell Hammer</strong> (urcare, corp mic jos, fitil
|
||
lung în sus, închidere sub low-ul candelei) și MBT-10 short, tot la close.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="cei-zece-pasi">Cei zece pași</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>Buy hammer:</strong> <a href="#pasul-a1">A1. Scăderea și forma</a> ·
|
||
<a href="#pasul-a2">A2. Nivelul</a> · <a href="#pasul-a3">A3. Trigger-ul</a> ·
|
||
<a href="#pasul-a4">A4. Stopul și mărimea</a> · <a href="#pasul-a5">A5. Ieșirea</a> ·
|
||
apoi <a href="#oglinda-short">oglinda pe short</a>.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>MBT-10:</strong> <a href="#pasul-b1">B1. Ideea de bottom</a> ·
|
||
<a href="#pasul-b2">B2. Închiderea barei</a> · <a href="#pasul-b3">B3. Condiția de preț</a> ·
|
||
<a href="#pasul-b4">B4. Stopul și mărimea</a> · <a href="#pasul-b5">B5. Ieșirea</a>.</p>
|
||
<p>Apoi <a href="#nivelul-3">rafinările</a> și <a href="#checklist">checklist-ul</a>.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<p><a id="nivelul-2a"></a></p>
|
||
<h1 id="nivelul-2a-buy-hammer-procedura-in-5-pasi">Nivelul 2A — Buy hammer, procedura în 5 pași</h1>
|
||
<p>Aici nu alegi nimic. Faci pașii în ordine. Dacă un pas nu trece, lași
|
||
simbolul și treci la următorul.</p>
|
||
<p>Înainte de pasul 1, filtrul de listă: păstrezi doar simbolurile lichide, pe
|
||
care intri și ieși fără să miști prețul — close peste 30-40 $ și volum mediu
|
||
zilnic de cel puțin 500.000 de acțiuni. Pragurile sunt cele ale scanerului de
|
||
Buy Doji / Buy Hammer; materialul nu dă altele separat pentru hammer. Și mai
|
||
verifici o dată calendarul: dacă firma raportează în zilele următoare, nu
|
||
intri deloc, oricât de frumos arată graficul.</p>
|
||
<p><a id="pasul-a1"></a></p>
|
||
<h2 id="pasul-a1-scaderea-dinainte-si-forma-candelei">Pasul A1 — Scăderea dinainte și forma candelei</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>Te uiți la scăderea dinainte: trebuie să vezi un downtrend care se oprește
|
||
într-o candelă cu fitil lung în jos. Dacă înainte a fost o urcare, nu e
|
||
hammer, e hanging man, și înseamnă exact pe dos.</strong> Câte candele numeri în urmă
|
||
e completarea mea — lecția de hammer nu dă niciun număr, cere doar o scădere
|
||
înainte; în practică eu mă uit la 8-10.</p>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_trend -->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 780 535" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="20" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Aceeași candelă, două contexte — daily, exemplu construit</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="42" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">DA — după o scădere: hammer</text>
|
||
<text x="402" y="42" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">NU — după o urcare: hanging man</text>
|
||
<line x1="392" y1="48" x2="392" y2="489" stroke="#ccc"/>
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<g transform="translate(0,60)"><rect x="59.0" y="96.0" width="214.0" height="162.9" fill="#c00" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="59.0" y="91.0" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">scădere de 9 candele</text>
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<line x1="70.0" y1="104.0" x2="70.0" y2="122.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="64.0" y="107.9" width="12" height="10.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="94.0" y1="114.4" x2="94.0" y2="143.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="88.0" y="118.3" width="12" height="20.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="118.0" y1="135.2" x2="118.0" y2="161.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="112.0" y="139.1" width="12" height="18.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="142.0" y1="145.6" x2="142.0" y2="161.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="136.0" y="149.5" width="12" height="7.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<polygon points="286.0,275.7 282.5,283.9 277.3,277.9" fill="#b06000"/>
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<text x="216.0" y="349.7" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer 63.30 / 62.10: prețul a fost dus la 62.10</text>
|
||
<text x="216.0" y="363.7" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">și readus sus, la 63.30</text>
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<polygon points="310.0,231.3 302.3,226.7 309.0,222.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="214.0" y="63.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">close 63.35, peste high-ul hammer-ului:</text>
|
||
<text x="214.0" y="77.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">semnalul e valid, aici intri</text></g>
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<g transform="translate(0,60)"><rect x="437.0" y="102.5" width="214.0" height="165.5" fill="#188a3e" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="437.0" y="97.5" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">urcare de 9 candele</text>
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<rect x="442.0" y="245.7" width="12" height="10.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="466.0" y="227.5" width="12" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="496.0" y1="205.4" x2="496.0" y2="231.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="490.0" y="209.3" width="12" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="520.0" y1="205.4" x2="520.0" y2="218.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="514.0" y="209.3" width="12" height="5.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="562.0" y="167.7" width="12" height="18.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="586.0" y="146.9" width="12" height="20.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="616.0" y1="127.4" x2="616.0" y2="150.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="634.0" y="114.4" width="12" height="16.9" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="664.0" y1="107.9" x2="664.0" y2="139.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="658.0" y="107.9" width="12" height="6.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="688.0" y1="104.0" x2="688.0" y2="145.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="682.0" y="107.9" width="12" height="33.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="712.0" y1="137.8" x2="712.0" y2="161.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="706.0" y="141.7" width="12" height="15.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="414.0" y1="366.0" x2="658.0" y2="148.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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<polygon points="664.0,143.1 660.7,151.4 655.4,145.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="414.0" y="380.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">aceeași candelă 63.30 / 62.10, dar după o urcare:</text>
|
||
<text x="414.0" y="394.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">se numește hanging man și avertizează de scădere</text>
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<line x1="618.0" y1="56.0" x2="681.2" y2="95.7" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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<polygon points="688.0,100.0 679.1,99.1 683.4,92.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="618.0" y="37.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">close 62.00, sub low-ul ei: scăderea</text>
|
||
<text x="618.0" y="51.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">începe — nu era semnal de cumpărare</text></g>
|
||
<text x="24" y="509" fill="#555">Forma nu spune nimic singură: hammer-ul e pattern de întoarcere doar după o scădere. Aceeași bară după o urcare</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="525" fill="#555">e hanging man și are sensul opus. Prețurile sunt construite; regula de context e a cursului.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_trend -->
|
||
|
||
<p>Cele două panouri au <strong>aceeași candelă</strong> — 63.30 sus, 62.10 jos, corp 0.25.
|
||
În stânga vine după o scădere de nouă candele: vânzătorii au dus prețul la
|
||
62.10 și n-au putut să-l țină, iar ziua următoare se închide peste vârful ei,
|
||
la 63.35. În dreapta, aceeași bară vine după o urcare de nouă candele: acolo
|
||
fitilul lung în jos arată că au apărut vânzători sus, iar ziua următoare se
|
||
închide la 62.00, sub low-ul ei. Forma nu decide nimic singură; contextul
|
||
decide.</p>
|
||
<p>Forma o verifici cu împărțirea de la nivelul 1, nu din ochi: fitilul de jos
|
||
împărțit la corp trebuie să dea cel puțin 2, iar corpul trebuie să stea în
|
||
treimea de sus a barei.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Treci mai departe doar dacă</strong> ai o scădere clară înainte și o candelă care
|
||
trece regula de formă.</p>
|
||
<p><a id="pasul-a2"></a></p>
|
||
<h2 id="pasul-a2-hammer-ul-sta-langa-un-nivel">Pasul A2 — Hammer-ul stă lângă un nivel</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>Tragi pe grafic suporturile și pivoții weekly, monthly sau quarterly și te
|
||
uiți cât de departe e low-ul hammer-ului de cel mai apropiat dintre ei.</strong></p>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_locatie -->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 760 450" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="22" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Hammer la un nivel vs. hammer în mijlocul range-ului — daily, exemplu construit</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">DA — hammer pe suportul monthly</text>
|
||
<text x="402" y="48" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">NU — hammer în mijlocul range-ului</text>
|
||
<line x1="388" y1="36" x2="388" y2="380" stroke="#ccc"/>
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<rect x="24" y="230.3" width="350" height="3.4" fill="#188a3e" fill-opacity="0.12" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="370" y="224.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">low-ul hammer-ului: 62.10</text>
|
||
<rect x="402" y="230.3" width="350" height="139.4" fill="#c00" fill-opacity="0.12" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<text x="748" y="224.3" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">low-ul hammer-ului: 62.10</text>
|
||
<text x="370" y="267.7" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">de la 62.10 la 62.00 = 0,16 % — la nivel</text>
|
||
<text x="410" y="357.7" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">de la 62.10 la 58.00 = gol de 7,07 % — hammer în aer</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="233.7" x2="374" y2="233.7" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="370" y="247.7" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">suport monthly 62.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="402" y1="63.7" x2="752" y2="63.7" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
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<text x="748" y="77.7" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">rezistența range-ului 67.00</text>
|
||
<line x1="402" y1="369.7" x2="752" y2="369.7" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="748" y="383.7" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">baza range-ului 58.00</text>
|
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<line x1="75.0" y1="113.0" x2="75.0" y2="140.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="70.0" y="118.1" width="10" height="17.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="92.0" y1="130.0" x2="92.0" y2="157.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="87.0" y="135.1" width="10" height="17.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="109.0" y1="136.8" x2="109.0" y2="157.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="104.0" y="141.9" width="10" height="10.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="121.0" y="141.9" width="10" height="23.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="143.0" y1="160.6" x2="143.0" y2="187.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="138.0" y="165.7" width="10" height="17.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="160.0" y1="177.6" x2="160.0" y2="203.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="155.0" y="182.7" width="10" height="15.3" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="177.0" y1="189.5" x2="177.0" y2="230.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="172.0" y="189.5" width="10" height="8.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="194.0" y1="182.7" x2="194.0" y2="194.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="189.0" y="187.8" width="10" height="1.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="211.0" y1="167.4" x2="211.0" y2="192.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="206.0" y="172.5" width="10" height="15.3" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="228.0" y1="153.8" x2="228.0" y2="177.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="223.0" y="158.9" width="10" height="13.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="245.0" y1="140.2" x2="245.0" y2="164.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="240.0" y="145.3" width="10" height="13.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<text x="177.0" y="163.5" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer 63.30 / 62.10</text>
|
||
<line x1="156.0" y1="285.7" x2="130.2" y2="244.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8"/>
|
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<polygon points="126.0,237.7 133.6,242.4 126.8,246.6" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
||
<text x="156.0" y="299.7" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">suport monthly: nivel urmărit de mulți —</text>
|
||
<text x="156.0" y="313.7" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">aici au cumpărători motiv să apară</text>
|
||
<line x1="436.0" y1="96.0" x2="436.0" y2="123.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="431.0" y="101.1" width="10" height="17.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="453.0" y1="113.0" x2="453.0" y2="140.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="448.0" y="118.1" width="10" height="17.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="470.0" y1="130.0" x2="470.0" y2="157.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<text x="555.0" y="163.5" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer 63.30 / 62.10</text>
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<text x="625.0" y="304.3" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">aceeași formă, dar nimic sub ea:</text>
|
||
<text x="625.0" y="318.3" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">fitilul n-a fost oprit de un nivel,</text>
|
||
<text x="625.0" y="332.3" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ci s-a oprit singur</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="404" fill="#555">Completare proprie: materialul cere „un nivel major (weekly / monthly / quarterly), nu mijlocul</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="420" fill="#555">range-ului", dar nu dă un prag numeric. Pragul de 1-2 % e împrumutat de la buy doji, ca să ai ce</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="436" fill="#555">măsura: aici 0,16 % în stânga, 7,07 % în dreapta.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_locatie -->
|
||
|
||
<p>Aceeași formă, de două ori, pe aceeași scară. În stânga, low-ul hammer-ului e
|
||
62.10, iar suportul monthly 62.00: (62.10 − 62.00) / 62.00 = 0,16 %, deci
|
||
hammer „la nivel". În dreapta, cel mai apropiat nivel de sub el e la 58.00, un
|
||
gol de 7,07 %: hammer în mijlocul range-ului, adică între suportul de jos și
|
||
rezistența de sus, fără nimic în jur. Ochiul nu vede diferența, procentul da.</p>
|
||
<p>De ce contează: un fitil lung oprit chiar pe un nivel spune că acolo au intrat
|
||
cumpărători care așteptau prețul. Același fitil în mijlocul intervalului spune
|
||
doar că a fost o zi agitată. Materialul e categoric aici: pattern-ul „contează
|
||
mult mai mult la un suport important (weekly, monthly, quarterly) decât în
|
||
mijlocul range-ului".</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
||
<p><strong>Completare proprie:</strong> materialul nu dă un prag numeric pentru „lângă
|
||
nivel". Am împrumutat pragul de 1-2 % de la buy doji, ca să ai ce măsura.
|
||
Dacă vrei să fii mai strict, ține-te de 1 %.</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<p><strong>Treci mai departe doar dacă</strong> low-ul hammer-ului e la cel mult 1-2 % de un
|
||
suport sau de un pivot weekly, monthly ori quarterly.</p>
|
||
<p><a id="pasul-a3"></a></p>
|
||
<h2 id="pasul-a3-trigger-ul-inchiderea-candelei-urmatoare">Pasul A3 — Trigger-ul: închiderea candelei următoare</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>Notezi high-ul hammer-ului și te uiți la o singură candelă — următoarea.
|
||
Intri doar dacă ea se închide peste acel high.</strong></p>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_trigger -->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 760 511" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
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<text x="12" y="20" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Trigger-ul: contează unde se închide candela următoare — daily, exemplu construit</text>
|
||
<text x="12" y="38" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">DA — închide peste high</text>
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<line x1="12" y1="267.3" x2="252" y2="267.3" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.3" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="250" y="262.3" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">high 63.30</text>
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<line x1="12" y1="322.5" x2="252" y2="322.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.3" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="250" y="317.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">low 62.10</text>
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<g transform="translate(0,54)"><line x1="58.0" y1="96.0" x2="58.0" y2="132.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="52.5" y="102.9" width="11" height="23.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="78.0" y1="119.0" x2="78.0" y2="160.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="72.5" y="125.9" width="11" height="27.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="98.0" y1="146.6" x2="98.0" y2="183.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="178.0" y1="204.1" x2="178.0" y2="220.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="108.0" y1="70.0" x2="174.2" y2="193.1" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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<polygon points="178.0,200.1 170.7,195.0 177.7,191.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="108.0" y="51.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">close 63.35, peste 63.30:</text>
|
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<text x="108.0" y="65.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">aici intri</text></g>
|
||
<text x="266" y="38" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">NU — încă sub high</text>
|
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<line x1="266" y1="267.3" x2="506" y2="267.3" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.3" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="504" y="262.3" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">high 63.30</text>
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<line x1="266" y1="322.5" x2="506" y2="322.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.3" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="504" y="317.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">low 62.10</text>
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<g transform="translate(0,54)"><line x1="312.0" y1="96.0" x2="312.0" y2="132.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="306.5" y="102.9" width="11" height="23.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="332.0" y1="119.0" x2="332.0" y2="160.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="352.0" y1="146.6" x2="352.0" y2="183.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="372.0" y1="169.6" x2="372.0" y2="206.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="366.5" y="176.5" width="11" height="23.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="392.0" y1="192.6" x2="392.0" y2="231.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="386.5" y="199.5" width="11" height="25.3" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="412.0" y1="213.3" x2="412.0" y2="268.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="406.5" y="213.3" width="11" height="11.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="432.0" y1="206.4" x2="432.0" y2="224.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="426.5" y="213.3" width="11" height="4.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="354.0" y1="70.0" x2="427.9" y2="195.5" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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<polygon points="432.0,202.4 424.5,197.5 431.4,193.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="354.0" y="37.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">close 63.20, sub 63.30:</text>
|
||
<text x="354.0" y="51.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">nu s-a întâmplat nimic,</text>
|
||
<text x="354.0" y="65.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">aștepți mai departe</text></g>
|
||
<text x="520" y="38" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">NU — închide sub low</text>
|
||
<line x1="520" y1="267.3" x2="760" y2="267.3" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.3" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="758" y="262.3" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">high 63.30</text>
|
||
<line x1="520" y1="322.5" x2="760" y2="322.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.3" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="758" y="317.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">low 62.10</text>
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<g transform="translate(0,54)"><line x1="566.0" y1="96.0" x2="566.0" y2="132.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="560.5" y="102.9" width="11" height="23.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="586.0" y1="119.0" x2="586.0" y2="160.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="580.5" y="125.9" width="11" height="27.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="606.0" y1="146.6" x2="606.0" y2="183.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="600.5" y="153.5" width="11" height="23.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="626.0" y1="169.6" x2="626.0" y2="206.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="620.5" y="176.5" width="11" height="23.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="646.0" y1="192.6" x2="646.0" y2="231.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="640.5" y="199.5" width="11" height="25.3" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="666.0" y1="213.3" x2="666.0" y2="268.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="660.5" y="213.3" width="11" height="11.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="686.0" y1="206.4" x2="686.0" y2="280.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||
<rect x="680.5" y="213.3" width="11" height="59.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="602.0" y1="336.0" x2="679.2" y2="288.2" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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<polygon points="686.0,284.0 681.3,291.6 677.1,284.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="602.0" y="350.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">close 62.00, sub 62.10:</text>
|
||
<text x="602.0" y="364.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">vânzătorii au dus prețul</text>
|
||
<text x="602.0" y="378.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">sub fitil — setup mort</text></g>
|
||
<line x1="259" y1="44" x2="259" y2="471" stroke="#ccc"/>
|
||
<line x1="513" y1="44" x2="513" y2="471" stroke="#ccc"/>
|
||
<text x="12" y="489" fill="#555">Regula e a lecției de pattern: intri la close-ul candelei următoare, dacă acea închidere e peste high-ul hammer-ului. O atingere</text>
|
||
<text x="12" y="505" fill="#555">intraday peste 63.30, urmată de o închidere sub el, nu e trigger. Prețurile sunt construite.</text>
|
||
</svg></p>
|
||
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_trigger -->
|
||
|
||
<p>Trei situații, cu același hammer 63.30 / 62.10:</p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>DA:</strong> candela următoare se închide la 63.35, peste 63.30. Intri la
|
||
close-ul ei, 63.35.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>NU, încă nimic:</strong> se închide la 63.20, sub 63.30. Nu s-a întâmplat nimic;
|
||
hammer-ul rămâne doar o pauză în scădere.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>NU, setup mort:</strong> se închide la 62.00, sub low-ul hammer-ului 62.10.
|
||
Vânzătorii au dus prețul sub fitil, deci ideea că s-au epuizat e infirmată.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<p>Contează <strong>închiderea</strong>, nu atingerea. O candelă care trece peste 63.30 în
|
||
timpul zilei și se închide sub el nu e trigger.</p>
|
||
<p>De ce se mișcă brusc prețul pe închiderea de deasupra: cine a vândut în ziua
|
||
hammer-ului e acum pe pierdere, iar stopurile celor care erau pe short, puse
|
||
deasupra high-ului, se execută ca ordine de cumpărare — e short covering-ul
|
||
din glosar. (Mecanismul e explicația sumarizatorului, sprijinită pe ce spune
|
||
cursul despre ordinele de sub minim.)</p>
|
||
<p>O notă de scaner: câmpul <code>BHATM = 0</code> marchează <strong>candela-hammer</strong>, adică
|
||
momentul semnalului, nu momentul intrării. Cine intră pe el intră cu o zi mai
|
||
devreme, pe o bară care n-a confirmat încă. Vezi contradicția 2 din
|
||
<a href="#contradictii">nivelul 3</a>.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Treci mai departe doar dacă</strong> o candelă s-a închis peste high-ul
|
||
hammer-ului. Altfel ștergi setup-ul.</p>
|
||
<p><a id="pasul-a4"></a></p>
|
||
<h2 id="pasul-a4-stopul-si-marimea-pozitiei">Pasul A4 — Stopul și mărimea poziției</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>Pui stopul puțin sub low-ul hammer-ului și calculezi câte acțiuni cumperi
|
||
din distanța până la el.</strong></p>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_stop -->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 754 457" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="64" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Buy hammer — stopul și mărimea poziției (daily, ticker ilustrativ XYZ)</text>
|
||
<rect x="257.3" y="163.0" width="49.0" height="77.6" fill="#b06000" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1"/>
|
||
<text x="257.3" y="89.4" fill="#b06000" style="font-weight:bold">cele două bare care dau stopul</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="177.6" x2="740" y2="177.6" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="171.6" fill="#188a3e">intrare 63.35 (close-ul confirmării)</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="234.8" x2="740" y2="234.8" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="228.8" fill="#c00">SL 62.05</text>
|
||
<line x1="138.8" y1="85.2" x2="138.8" y2="122.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="132.3" y="96.2" width="13" height="13.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="164.8" y1="85.2" x2="164.8" y2="157.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="158.3" y="96.2" width="13" height="48.4" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="190.8" y1="133.6" x2="190.8" y2="188.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="184.3" y="144.6" width="13" height="30.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<line x1="216.8" y1="151.2" x2="216.8" y2="188.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="210.3" y="162.2" width="13" height="13.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="242.8" y1="151.2" x2="242.8" y2="204.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="236.3" y="162.2" width="13" height="28.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="268.8" y1="179.8" x2="268.8" y2="232.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="262.3" y="179.8" width="13" height="11.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="294.8" y1="171.0" x2="294.8" y2="186.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="288.3" y="177.6" width="13" height="2.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<rect x="366.3" y="122.6" width="13" height="17.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="398.8" y1="111.6" x2="398.8" y2="144.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="392.3" y="122.6" width="13" height="8.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="424.8" y1="98.4" x2="424.8" y2="144.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="418.3" y="109.4" width="13" height="22.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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|
||
<text x="92.8" y="302.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">low-ul hammer-ului: 62.10</text>
|
||
<text x="92.8" y="316.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">sub el, cererea care a făcut</text>
|
||
<text x="92.8" y="330.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">fitilul nu mai există</text>
|
||
<line x1="544.8" y1="66.0" x2="302.2" y2="164.0" stroke="#555" stroke-width="1.8"/>
|
||
<polygon points="294.8,167.0 300.7,160.3 303.7,167.7" fill="#555"/>
|
||
<text x="544.8" y="47.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">riscul e distanța intrare - SL:</text>
|
||
<text x="544.8" y="61.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">63.35 - 62.05 = 1.30 $ pe acțiune</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="361.6" fill="#188a3e">bara 20: confirmare — close 63.35 peste high-ul hammer-ului 63.30 (intrare)</text>
|
||
<polyline points="370.0,177.6 376.0,177.6 376.0,234.8 370.0,234.8" fill="none" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5"/><text x="382.0" y="210.2" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">1R = 1.30 $</text><text x="24" y="393" fill="#333">Mărimea poziției, cu cifrele lecției: 2 % dintr-un cont de 10.000 $ = 200 $ de risc.</text><text x="24" y="409" fill="#333">200 $ / 1.30 $ pe acțiune = 153.8 → 153 de acțiuni (rotunjit în jos); pierderea maximă 198.90 $.</text><text x="24" y="425" fill="#555">Cei 5 cenți de sub low sunt marja folosită în tot capitolul pe exemplele construite de mine;</text><text x="24" y="441" fill="#555">unde cifra vine din material, e spusă acolo.</text></svg></p>
|
||
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_stop -->
|
||
|
||
<p>Stopul merge la 62.05, cu 5 cenți sub 62.10. De ce acolo: dacă prețul se
|
||
tranzacționează sub acel low, cererea care a făcut fitilul pur și simplu nu
|
||
mai există — ideea a murit, n-are rost s-o mai ții. Dacă hammer-ul face parte
|
||
dintr-un double bottom, stopul coboară sub double bottom, nu doar sub candelă.</p>
|
||
<p>Riscul e distanța: 63.35 − 62.05 = <strong>1.30 $ pe acțiune</strong>. Mărimea poziției
|
||
vine din regula generală a cursului — pierzi cel mult 2 % din cont pe un
|
||
trade — iar numărul de acțiuni e riscul în dolari împărțit la distanța până la
|
||
stop, rotunjit în jos. Cu exemplul lecției, pe un cont de 10.000 $: 2 % = 200 $,
|
||
iar 200 / 1.30 = 153,8, deci <strong>153 de acțiuni</strong>, cu o pierdere maximă de
|
||
198,90 $.</p>
|
||
<p>Cei 5 cenți de marjă sunt regula pe care o folosesc în tot capitolul, pe
|
||
exemplele construite de mine. Unde cifra vine din material — stopul 64.10 sub
|
||
un hammer cu low 64.30, în exemplul cu gap, sau 52.00 sub codița de la MBT-10
|
||
— am păstrat-o pe a lui și o spun acolo.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Treci mai departe doar dacă</strong> știi prețul exact al stopului și numărul de
|
||
acțiuni, iar pierderea maximă încape în regula ta de risc.</p>
|
||
<p><a id="pasul-a5"></a></p>
|
||
<h2 id="pasul-a5-iesirea-jumatate-la-11-restul-pe-trail">Pasul A5 — Ieșirea: jumătate la 1:1, restul pe trail</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>Pui prima țintă la aceeași distanță deasupra intrării la care e stopul
|
||
dedesubt, iar după ce e atinsă muți stopul sub fiecare swing low nou.</strong></p>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_iesire -->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 785 450" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="72" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Buy hammer — ieșirea (daily, ticker ilustrativ XYZ; barele de după 33 sunt construite)</text>
|
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<rect x="348.4" y="114.5" width="83.0" height="58.5" fill="#b06000" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1"/>
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||
<text x="348.4" y="109.5" fill="#b06000" style="font-weight:bold">pullback</text>
|
||
<rect x="444.4" y="82.2" width="51.0" height="60.2" fill="#b06000" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1"/>
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<line x1="24" y1="136.1" x2="771" y2="136.1" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="757" y="130.1" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">65.95 = 2R — ținta din exemplul lecției</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="180.3" x2="771" y2="180.3" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="757" y="174.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">64.65 = 1:1 — prima jumătate</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="224.5" x2="771" y2="224.5" stroke="#555" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="218.5" fill="#555">intrare 63.35</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="268.7" x2="771" y2="268.7" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="262.7" fill="#c00">SL inițial 62.05</text>
|
||
<line x1="133.9" y1="190.5" x2="133.9" y2="233.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.4" y="199.0" width="9" height="23.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="149.9" y1="204.1" x2="149.9" y2="233.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="145.4" y="212.6" width="9" height="10.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="405.9" y1="139.5" x2="405.9" y2="165.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="401.4" y="148.0" width="9" height="6.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="421.9" y1="131.0" x2="421.9" y2="153.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="417.4" y="136.1" width="9" height="11.9" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="437.9" y1="107.2" x2="437.9" y2="139.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="433.4" y="114.0" width="9" height="22.1" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="453.9" y1="103.8" x2="453.9" y2="127.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="449.4" y="114.0" width="9" height="8.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="469.9" y1="115.7" x2="469.9" y2="134.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="465.4" y="119.1" width="9" height="3.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="485.9" y1="90.2" x2="485.9" y2="122.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="481.4" y="97.0" width="9" height="22.1" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="501.9" y1="80.0" x2="501.9" y2="103.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="497.4" y="90.2" width="9" height="6.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="517.9" y1="86.8" x2="517.9" y2="141.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||
<rect x="513.4" y="90.2" width="9" height="47.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="95.9" y1="110.3" x2="238.6" y2="173.1" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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||
<polygon points="245.9,176.3 237.0,176.7 240.2,169.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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||
<text x="95.9" y="91.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">prima jumătate iese la 64.65:</text>
|
||
<text x="95.9" y="105.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">exact cât ai riscat (1R)</text>
|
||
<line x1="267.9" y1="329.0" x2="511.5" y2="149.9" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.8"/>
|
||
<polygon points="517.9,145.2 513.8,153.2 509.1,146.7" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<text x="267.9" y="343.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">a doua jumătate iese la 65.90 (+1,96R):</text>
|
||
<text x="267.9" y="357.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">prima închidere sub linia de trail</text>
|
||
<polyline points="154.0,234.7 330.0,234.7 330.0,165.0 330.0,165.0 410.0,165.0 410.0,134.4 410.0,134.4 438.0,134.4" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="2"/><text x="158.0" y="250.7" fill="#b06000" style="font-weight:bold">linia de trail</text><text x="24" y="402" fill="#333">Trail-ul urcă doar sub un swing low nou — 63.05, apoi 65.10, apoi 66.00 — și nu coboară niciodată; ieși la prima închidere sub el.</text><text x="24" y="418" fill="#555">Lecția de pattern nu dă o țintă proprie — 1:1 vine de la strategia MBP, iar 2R e ținta</text><text x="24" y="434" fill="#555">exemplului din lecție. Continuarea barelor de după 33 e construită.</text></svg></p>
|
||
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_iesire -->
|
||
|
||
<p>Lecția de pattern nu dă o țintă proprie — spune explicit că „un pattern nu îți
|
||
spune cât de departe merge prețul". Ținta vine de la strategia care folosește
|
||
hammer-ul: la MBP, prima tranșă la 1:1 și restul pe trail; la MDSRT, țintă
|
||
simetrică plus trail. Deci:</p>
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li><strong>Prima jumătate la 1:1.</strong> Cu intrarea la 63.35 și stopul la 62.05, riști
|
||
1.30, deci ținta e 64.65.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>A doua jumătate pe trail.</strong> Muți stopul sub ultimul swing low — cel mai
|
||
jos low al unei coborâri scurte, confirmat de două bare care nu-l rup. Pe
|
||
diagramă: 63.05, apoi 65.10, apoi 66.00. Linia doar urcă, niciodată nu
|
||
coboară. Ieși la prima închidere sub ea: aici la 65.90, adică +1,96R.</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
<p>Pe drum, la 65.95, ar fi fost atinsă și ținta de 2R din exemplul lecției. E
|
||
bine de știut că există, dar nu e o regulă a pattern-ului — e cifra unui
|
||
exemplu.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Treci la trade-ul următor doar după ce</strong> ambele jumătăți au ieșit — la
|
||
țintă, pe trail sau la stop.</p>
|
||
<p><a id="oglinda-short"></a></p>
|
||
<h2 id="oglinda-sell-hammer-pe-short">Oglinda — Sell Hammer, pe short</h2>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_sell -->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 720 621" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="70" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Sell hammer — oglinda pe short (daily, exemplu construit)</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="78.0" x2="706" y2="78.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="692" y="72.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL 100.25 — peste high-ul sell hammer-ului</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="119.6" x2="706" y2="119.6" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="113.6" fill="#188a3e">intrare short 98.95</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="202.8" x2="706" y2="202.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="692" y="196.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP 96.35 = 2R</text>
|
||
<line x1="44.0" y1="386.8" x2="44.0" y2="404.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||
<rect x="39.5" y="396.4" width="9" height="1.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="59.0" y1="361.2" x2="59.0" y2="404.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||
<rect x="54.5" y="370.8" width="9" height="25.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<line x1="74.0" y1="361.2" x2="74.0" y2="388.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="69.5" y="370.8" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="89.0" y1="335.6" x2="89.0" y2="388.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="84.5" y="345.2" width="9" height="35.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="104.0" y1="310.0" x2="104.0" y2="353.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="319.6" width="9" height="25.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="310.0" x2="119.0" y2="340.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="319.6" width="9" height="12.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="134.0" y1="287.6" x2="134.0" y2="340.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="297.2" width="9" height="35.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="149.0" y1="262.0" x2="149.0" y2="305.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="144.5" y="271.6" width="9" height="25.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="164.0" y1="262.0" x2="164.0" y2="289.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="159.5" y="271.6" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="179.0" y1="236.4" x2="179.0" y2="289.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="174.5" y="246.0" width="9" height="35.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="194.0" y1="210.8" x2="194.0" y2="254.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="189.5" y="220.4" width="9" height="25.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="209.0" y1="210.8" x2="209.0" y2="238.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="204.5" y="220.4" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="224.0" y1="185.2" x2="224.0" y2="238.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="219.5" y="194.8" width="9" height="35.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="239.0" y1="159.6" x2="239.0" y2="202.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="234.5" y="169.2" width="9" height="25.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="254.0" y1="159.6" x2="254.0" y2="186.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="249.5" y="169.2" width="9" height="9.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="269.0" y1="134.0" x2="269.0" y2="186.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="264.5" y="143.6" width="9" height="35.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<text x="224.0" y="402.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">close 98.95, sub low-ul lui 99.00:</text>
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<text x="224.0" y="416.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">aici vinzi în lipsă</text>
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<text x="404.0" y="276.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ținta 96.35: aceeași distanță</text>
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<text x="404.0" y="290.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ca la long, dar în jos</text>
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<text x="24" y="557" fill="#333">Totul e întors: urcare înainte, corp mic jos și fitil lung în sus, intrarea la o închidere SUB</text><text x="24" y="573" fill="#333">low-ul candelei, stopul PESTE high-ul ei, ținta la aceeași distanță în jos.</text><text x="24" y="589" fill="#555">Completare proprie: cursul numește Sell Hammer ca simetric al lui Buy Hammer, dar nu-i scrie</text><text x="24" y="605" fill="#555">regulile separat. Seria e trade-ul long oglindit, deci riscul e tot 1.30.</text></svg></p>
|
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<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_sell -->
|
||
|
||
<p>Diagrama e chiar trade-ul de mai sus, oglindit: hammer-ul 63.30 / 62.10 devine
|
||
99.00 / 100.20, intrarea 63.35 devine 98.95, stopul 62.05 devine 100.25, iar
|
||
ținta 65.95 devine 96.35. Riscul rămâne exact 1.30, deci cele două nu se pot
|
||
contrazice la cifre.</p>
|
||
<p>Ce se schimbă, punct cu punct:</p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>înainte de candelă vine o <strong>urcare</strong>, nu o scădere;</li>
|
||
<li>candela are corpul mic <strong>jos</strong> și fitilul lung <strong>în sus</strong>: cumpărătorii au
|
||
împins la 100.20 și au fost respinși;</li>
|
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<li>ea stă lângă o <strong>rezistență</strong> sau un pivot, deasupra, nu sub;</li>
|
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<li>trigger-ul e o închidere <strong>sub low-ul</strong> ei: 98.95, sub 99.00;</li>
|
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<li>stopul stă <strong>deasupra</strong> high-ului ei, la 100.25;</li>
|
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<li>ținta e la aceeași distanță, în jos.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
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<p>Ce se adaugă pe short, din regulile generale ale cursului: nu shortezi acțiuni
|
||
sub 10 $ (riști un salt brusc când toți cei pe short cumpără odată) și nu
|
||
shortezi contra unui semnal de cumpărare pe timeframe-ul mare.</p>
|
||
<blockquote>
|
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<p><strong>Completare proprie:</strong> cursul numește Sell Hammer ca simetric al lui Buy
|
||
Hammer, în lista de triggere a strategiei MDSRT, dar nu-i scrie regulile
|
||
separat. Cele de mai sus sunt simetria aplicată, nu citate.</p>
|
||
</blockquote>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<p><a id="nivelul-2b"></a></p>
|
||
<h1 id="nivelul-2b-mbt-10-procedura-in-5-pasi">Nivelul 2B — MBT-10, procedura în 5 pași</h1>
|
||
<p>Ordinea e alta decât la buy hammer: aici întâi ai ideea, și abia la sfârșit
|
||
vine semnalul. Dacă începi cu semnalul — adică te uiți în scaner ce a intrat
|
||
azi în MBT-10 — te uiți la o listă de bare oarecare.</p>
|
||
<p><a id="pasul-b1"></a></p>
|
||
<h2 id="pasul-b1-ideea-de-bottom-cu-cel-putin-o-confluenta">Pasul B1 — Ideea de bottom, cu cel puțin o confluență</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>Înainte de orice semnal, ai nevoie de un motiv pentru care prețul s-ar opri
|
||
exact acolo: un suport, locul crimei, un double bottom, un buy doji sau o
|
||
divergență de volum.</strong></p>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: mbt_confluente -->
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 658" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10, pasul „unde" — double bottom pe suportul weekly (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="30" y="329.0" fill="#1a5fb4">suport weekly 87.50</text>
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||
<polygon points="274.0,336.0 267.8,342.4 265.1,334.8" fill="#555"/>
|
||
<text x="124.0" y="402.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">piciorul 1: low 87.60,</text>
|
||
<text x="124.0" y="416.0" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">la 0,11 % peste suport</text>
|
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<polygon points="384.0,337.5 384.4,346.4 377.1,343.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
||
<text x="344.0" y="441.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">piciorul 2: low 87.55, cu 5 cenți mai jos,</text>
|
||
<text x="344.0" y="455.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">dar cu volum mai mic decât la piciorul 1 —</text>
|
||
<text x="344.0" y="469.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">vânzarea a slăbit (divergență de volum)</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="610" fill="#333">Aici nu intri încă: diagrama arată doar ideea de bottom. MBT-10 e ultima piesă, și vine abia la close-ul unei bare.</text><text x="24" y="626" fill="#555">Cifrele 89.90 / 87.30 / 95.20 ale trade-ului sunt din exemplul construit al materialului;</text><text x="24" y="642" fill="#555">suportul weekly 87.50, pivotul daily 89.60 și structura barelor sunt ale mele.</text></svg></p>
|
||
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: mbt_confluente -->
|
||
|
||
<p>Pe diagramă sunt trei motive suprapuse. Prețul coboară până la suportul
|
||
weekly 87.50 și face acolo două minime aproape egale — 87.60 și 87.55, cu
|
||
5 cenți între ele, adică 0,06 %: un <strong>double bottom</strong>. Al doilea picior
|
||
coboară puțin mai jos decât primul, dar cu <strong>volum mai mic</strong> — asta e
|
||
divergența de volum: prețul mai face un minim, dar vânzarea din spatele lui a
|
||
slăbit.</p>
|
||
<p>Structura care leagă cifrele — suportul weekly 87.50 și double bottom-ul 87.60 /
|
||
87.55 — e <strong>completarea mea</strong>, nu a materialului. Exemplul din care vin
|
||
89.90 / 87.30 / 95.20 e pe <strong>60 de minute</strong>, cu un <strong>suport weekly la 88.00
|
||
testat de trei ori</strong>, nu pe daily și nu cu un double bottom. Am coborât suportul
|
||
la 87.50 ca stopul de la pasul B4 să aibă sub ce sta.</p>
|
||
<p>Aici nu intri încă. Diagrama nu are nici intrare, nici stop desenate, fiindcă
|
||
la pasul ăsta nu există. Materialul e explicit: fără suport, volum și un
|
||
pattern de bottom, MBT-10 e doar un semnal pe o bară oarecare.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Treci mai departe doar dacă</strong> poți spune într-o propoziție de ce s-ar opri
|
||
prețul acolo, arătând cu degetul pe grafic.</p>
|
||
<p><a id="pasul-b2"></a></p>
|
||
<h2 id="pasul-b2-astepti-inchiderea-barei">Pasul B2 — Aștepți închiderea barei</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>Te uiți la semnal o singură dată pe zi: la închidere. Ce arată sistemul în
|
||
timpul zilei nu contează.</strong></p>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: mbt_close -->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 751 676" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="72" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 — „în formare" nu e semnal (cifrele exemplului din material)</text>
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<text x="442.3" y="194.5" fill="#b06000" style="font-weight:bold">cele două zile care contează</text>
|
||
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|
||
<text x="723" y="204.9" fill="#555" text-anchor="end">intraday 55.30</text>
|
||
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|
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<text x="30" y="313.7" fill="#1a5fb4">locul crimei 52.10 — structura ideii</text>
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<rect x="239.3" y="558.2" width="13" height="33.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="369.3" y="546.9" width="13" height="45.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="395.3" y="557.5" width="13" height="34.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="447.3" y="531.9" width="13" height="60.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="473.3" y="536.9" width="13" height="55.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<text x="24" y="525.9" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="123.8" y="117.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">la 55.30, în timpul zilei, semnalul</text>
|
||
<text x="123.8" y="131.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">se vedea „în formare" — dar ziua nu se</text>
|
||
<text x="123.8" y="145.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">terminase, deci nu exista nimic</text>
|
||
<line x1="303.8" y1="369.3" x2="446.5" y2="306.5" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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<polygon points="453.8,303.3 448.1,310.2 444.9,302.9" fill="#c00"/>
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||
<text x="303.8" y="383.3" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">s-a închis la 52.90: semnalul</text>
|
||
<text x="303.8" y="397.3" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">nu s-a produs niciodată</text>
|
||
<line x1="409.8" y1="468.9" x2="475.7" y2="357.8" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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<polygon points="479.8,350.9 479.2,359.8 472.3,355.7" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="409.8" y="482.9" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">a doua zi: 51.50, sub 52.10 —</text>
|
||
<text x="409.8" y="496.9" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">structura a cedat, ideea a murit</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="628" fill="#333">Te uiți la semnal o singură dată pe zi, la închidere. Cine a cumpărat la 55.30 a cumpărat un semnal</text><text x="24" y="644" fill="#333">care nu s-a produs, și a doua zi era deja sub structura pe care se sprijinea ideea.</text><text x="24" y="660" fill="#555">Reale sunt 55.30, 52.90, 51.50 și faptul că 51.50 e sub locul crimei; barele din jur sunt construite.</text></svg></p>
|
||
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: mbt_close -->
|
||
|
||
<p>Exemplul din material: în timpul zilei prețul era la 55.30 și semnalul se
|
||
vedea „în formare"; ziua s-a închis însă la 52.90, deci semnalul n-a existat
|
||
niciodată. A doua zi prețul a mers la 51.50, sub locul crimei, adică sub
|
||
structura pe care se sprijinea ideea. Cine a intrat pe „în formare" a intrat
|
||
într-un semnal care nu s-a produs.</p>
|
||
<p>Autorul, într-o sesiune de întrebări: „dacă se închide, e mișto de intrat".
|
||
Asta e singura condiție care contează.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Treci mai departe doar dacă</strong> bara s-a închis. Nu te uiți la grafic între
|
||
timp.</p>
|
||
<p><a id="pasul-b3"></a></p>
|
||
<h2 id="pasul-b3-conditia-de-pret-close-peste-pivotul-daily">Pasul B3 — Condiția de preț: close peste pivotul daily</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>Verifici singurul lucru din MBT-10 pe care îl poți calcula fără indicator:
|
||
ziua s-a închis peste pivotul daily?</strong></p>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: mbt_ppd -->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 686 578" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||
<text x="24" y="72" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 — condiția de preț: close peste pivotul daily (exemplu construit)</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="203.2" x2="672" y2="203.2" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="658" y="197.2" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">pivotul daily 89.60</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="295.6" x2="672" y2="295.6" stroke="#555" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="289.6" fill="#555">suport weekly 87.50</text>
|
||
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<rect x="90.0" y="264.8" width="13" height="22.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="122.5" y1="247.2" x2="122.5" y2="289.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="116.0" y="256.0" width="13" height="30.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="148.5" y1="216.4" x2="148.5" y2="267.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="90.0" y="419.6" width="13" height="58.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
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<rect x="116.0" y="439.6" width="13" height="38.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="142.0" y="442.1" width="13" height="36.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="168.0" y="444.0" width="13" height="34.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="194.0" y="440.9" width="13" height="37.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="220.0" y="437.1" width="13" height="41.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="246.0" y="444.6" width="13" height="33.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="272.0" y="442.1" width="13" height="36.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="298.0" y="439.6" width="13" height="38.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="324.0" y="418.4" width="13" height="60.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="350.0" y="434.6" width="13" height="43.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="376.0" y="437.1" width="13" height="41.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="402.0" y="438.4" width="13" height="40.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
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<text x="24" y="412.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
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<line x1="114.5" y1="341.4" x2="297.3" y2="252.5" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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<polygon points="304.5,249.0 299.1,256.1 295.6,248.9" fill="#c00"/>
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||
<text x="114.5" y="355.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">a atins 89.70 în timpul zilei,</text>
|
||
<text x="114.5" y="369.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">dar s-a închis la 89.40, sub pivot:</text>
|
||
<text x="114.5" y="383.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">nu e semnal</text>
|
||
<line x1="260.5" y1="122.4" x2="324.2" y2="172.3" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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<polygon points="330.5,177.2 321.7,175.4 326.7,169.1" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<text x="260.5" y="103.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">s-a închis la 89.90, peste pivot:</text>
|
||
<text x="260.5" y="117.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">aici intri, la close-ul zilei</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="514" fill="#333">Pivotul daily se recalculează în fiecare zi din maximul, minimul și închiderea zilei precedente;</text><text x="24" y="530" fill="#333">linia desenată e valoarea din ziua intrării, 89.60, nu un nivel fix.</text><text x="24" y="546" fill="#555">Asta e tot ce se poate verifica din MBT-10 fără indicatorul proprietar — „prima componentă" din el,</text><text x="24" y="562" fill="#555">cum îi spune materialul; restul formulei nu e publicat nicăieri.</text></svg></p>
|
||
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: mbt_ppd -->
|
||
|
||
<p>Pivotul daily se calculează din maximul, minimul și închiderea zilei
|
||
precedente, cu formula clasică — deci se schimbă în fiecare zi. Pe diagramă,
|
||
în ziua intrării el e la 89.60. Ziua dinainte urcă până la 89.70 în timpul
|
||
sesiunii, dar se închide la 89.40, sub pivot: nu e semnal. Ziua următoare se
|
||
închide la 89.90, peste pivot: aici intri, la close.</p>
|
||
<p>Materialul numește asta „prima componentă din MBT-10", ceea ce înseamnă
|
||
probabil că nu e singura — restul formulei nu e publicat nicăieri. Așa că:
|
||
condiția asta e <strong>necesară, dar nu știm dacă e suficientă</strong>. Într-o sesiune
|
||
apare și o variantă mai strictă, cu două închideri consecutive peste pivot și
|
||
al doilea pivot mai sus; sursele nu sunt de acord dacă ea aparține lui MBT-10
|
||
sau altui semnal (contradicția 1 din <a href="#contradictii">nivelul 3</a>).</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Treci mai departe doar dacă</strong> ziua s-a închis peste pivotul daily (și, dacă
|
||
ai platforma autorului, dacă semnalul chiar s-a aprins la close).</p>
|
||
<p><a id="pasul-b4"></a></p>
|
||
<h2 id="pasul-b4-stopul-si-marimea-pozitiei">Pasul B4 — Stopul și mărimea poziției</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>Pui stopul sub structura pe care s-a format ideea, nu la o distanță aleasă
|
||
de tine, și dimensionezi pentru două-trei încercări dacă vii după un gap
|
||
down.</strong></p>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: mbt_stop -->
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 680 443" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 — stopul sub structură (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="104.5" y="135.0" fill="#b06000" style="font-weight:bold">structura care ține ideea</text>
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<text x="30" y="118.0" fill="#188a3e">intrare 89.90 (close-ul zilei)</text>
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<text x="652" y="214.0" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">suport weekly 87.50</text>
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<text x="30" y="222.0" fill="#c00">SL 87.30</text>
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<text x="206.0" y="306.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">sub 87.30 nu mai e double bottom:</text>
|
||
<text x="206.0" y="320.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ideea de la pasul 1 a murit,</text>
|
||
<text x="206.0" y="334.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">nu mai ai ce aștepta</text>
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||
<polyline points="370.0,124.0 376.0,124.0 376.0,228.0 370.0,228.0" fill="none" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5"/><text x="382.0" y="180.0" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">1R = 2.60 $</text><text x="24" y="379" fill="#333">Mărimea, cu aceeași regulă ca la buy hammer: 2 % dintr-un cont de 10.000 $ = 200 $;</text><text x="24" y="395" fill="#333">200 / 2.60 = 76.9 → 76 de acțiuni, pierdere maximă 197.60 $.</text><text x="24" y="411" fill="#555">87.30 e cifra materialului, nu marja mea de 5 cenți; suportul weekly 87.50 e construit de mine ca stopul</text><text x="24" y="427" fill="#555">acela să aibă sub ce sta. Materialul nu dă niciun procent fix de stop pentru MBT-10.</text></svg></p>
|
||
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: mbt_stop -->
|
||
|
||
<p>Stopul stă sub ce ar invalida ideea de la pasul B1. În construcția din capitol,
|
||
ideea era double bottom-ul de pe suportul weekly 87.50 — <strong>structură a mea</strong>, nu
|
||
a materialului, al cărui exemplu e pe 60 de minute, cu suport weekly 88.00
|
||
testat de trei ori. Deci stopul merge la <strong>87.30</strong>, sub amândouă picioarele și
|
||
sub suport. Riscul e 89.90 − 87.30 = <strong>2.60 $ pe acțiune</strong>; pe același cont de
|
||
10.000 $ cu 2 %, 200 / 2.60 = 76,9, deci <strong>76 de acțiuni</strong>.</p>
|
||
<p>Alte exemple de aceeași formă din material: sub codița hammer-ului care e și
|
||
locul crimei (52.00); sub low-ul barelor de după un gap down (63.20, apoi
|
||
60.40); la un gap up, sub low-ul barei de gap (32.80). De fiecare dată stopul
|
||
numește o structură, nu un procent — materialul nu dă niciun procent fix.</p>
|
||
<p>Excepția de mărime: <strong>primul MBT-10 după un gap down poate să nu meargă</strong>. În
|
||
exemplul din material, încercarea 1 e stopată, iar încercarea 2 merge până la
|
||
4,7R. De aceea împarți riscul la două-trei încercări, cu același risc în bani
|
||
la fiecare, în loc să pui tot pe prima. Diagrama e la
|
||
<a href="#gap-down">nivelul 3</a>.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Treci mai departe doar dacă</strong> poți arăta pe grafic structura de sub stop și
|
||
știi câte acțiuni cumperi.</p>
|
||
<p><a id="pasul-b5"></a></p>
|
||
<h2 id="pasul-b5-iesirea">Pasul B5 — Ieșirea</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>Ieși la prima structură din stânga care a oprit prețul ultima dată, pentru
|
||
că MBT-10 nu are o țintă proprie.</strong></p>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: mbt_iesire -->
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 603" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
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<text x="24" y="72" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 — ieșirea la prima structură din stânga (exemplu construit)</text>
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||
<text x="95.0" y="98.4" fill="#b06000" style="font-weight:bold">de aici a pornit coborârea</text>
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||
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<text x="367.0" y="98.2" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">drumul până la structură: 7 bare</text>
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||
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<text x="672" y="115.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">ținta 95.20 = ultimul maxim dinaintea coborârii</text>
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<text x="30" y="253.4" fill="#188a3e">intrare 89.90</text>
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<text x="30" y="321.0" fill="#c00">SL 87.30</text>
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<rect x="423.0" y="479.5" width="10" height="40.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="440.0" y="483.2" width="10" height="36.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="457.0" y="477.0" width="10" height="42.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="474.0" y="474.5" width="10" height="45.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="491.0" y="469.5" width="10" height="50.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<text x="24" y="453.5" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
<line x1="296.0" y1="382.5" x2="491.1" y2="131.9" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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<polygon points="496.0,125.6 494.2,134.4 487.9,129.5" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
||
<text x="296.0" y="396.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ieși la 95.20 (+2.0R):</text>
|
||
<text x="296.0" y="410.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">prima structură care a oprit</text>
|
||
<text x="296.0" y="424.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">prețul ultima dată</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="555" fill="#333">Materialul nu dă o regulă proprie de take-profit la MBT-10. Ce au în comun toate exemplele lui e că</text><text x="24" y="571" fill="#333">ținta e o structură vizibilă în stânga: un vârf anterior, ultimul maxim mai jos, sau închiderea unui gap.</text><text x="24" y="587" fill="#555">Aici: 89.90 → 95.20 = 2.0R, în 7 bare. Cifrele trade-ului sunt din exemplul construit al materialului.</text></svg></p>
|
||
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: mbt_iesire -->
|
||
|
||
<p>Asta e o gaură reală în material, nu o simplificare a mea: fișierul principal
|
||
nu fixează nicio regulă de take-profit. Toate cifrele de țintă din el sunt
|
||
aplicarea regulilor de către sumarizator, marcate ca atare. Ce au în comun:
|
||
ținta e mereu <strong>o structură care se vede pe grafic</strong>, în stânga intrării.</p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>vârful anterior — 58.90, adică 1,65R în exemplul de ansamblu;</li>
|
||
<li>vârful de unde a pornit coborârea — 95.20, adică 2,0R în exemplul din pașii
|
||
de mai sus;</li>
|
||
<li>ultimul maxim mai jos decât precedentul — 39.20, adică 3,6R;</li>
|
||
<li>închiderea gap-ului — 70.60, adică 4,7R.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<p>Ce te scoate înainte de țintă e tot stopul: o închidere sub structura pe care
|
||
s-a format ideea. Iar dacă ținta e atinsă și prețul se întoarce la locul
|
||
crimei, materialul admite o reintrare, cu un nou trigger.</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Treci la trade-ul următor doar după ce</strong> poziția a ieșit la structură, pe
|
||
stop sau pe o reintrare pe care ai decis-o înainte.</p>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<p><a id="nivelul-3"></a></p>
|
||
<h1 id="nivelul-3-rafinari">Nivelul 3 — Rafinări</h1>
|
||
<p><strong>Astea se citesc după ce ai făcut 20 de trade-uri mecanic, nu înainte.</strong></p>
|
||
<h2 id="ce-face-un-buy-hammer-a">Ce face un buy hammer A+</h2>
|
||
<p>Pașii A1 și A2 sunt minimul. Cu cât ai mai multe motive independente pentru
|
||
același trade, cu atât e mai bun — dar materialul nu cere o poziție mai mare.</p>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_aplus -->
|
||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 900 501" width="900" height="501" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif"><text x="450" y="20" fill="#333" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">Buy hammer A+ vs. mediocru (două panouri, exemple construite)</text><g transform="translate(8,38)">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">A+ — hammer la suport monthly</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="280.1" fill="#188a3e">suport monthly 42.00</text>
|
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<line x1="44.0" y1="56.0" x2="44.0" y2="85.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="39.5" y="62.5" width="9" height="15.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="59.0" y1="71.6" x2="59.0" y2="109.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="54.5" y="78.1" width="9" height="23.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="74.0" y1="89.8" x2="74.0" y2="109.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="69.5" y="96.3" width="9" height="5.2" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="89.0" y1="89.8" x2="89.0" y2="132.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="84.5" y="96.3" width="9" height="28.6" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="104.0" y1="118.4" x2="104.0" y2="156.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="124.9" width="9" height="23.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="140.5" width="9" height="7.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="134.0" y1="134.0" x2="134.0" y2="179.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="54.5" y="340.0" width="9" height="34.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="69.5" y="340.7" width="9" height="34.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="84.5" y="342.0" width="9" height="32.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="342.7" width="9" height="32.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="114.5" y="343.4" width="9" height="31.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="129.5" y="344.0" width="9" height="30.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="144.5" y="344.7" width="9" height="30.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="159.5" y="345.4" width="9" height="29.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="174.5" y="346.0" width="9" height="28.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="189.5" y="346.7" width="9" height="28.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="204.5" y="344.7" width="9" height="30.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
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<rect x="219.5" y="332.0" width="9" height="42.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="234.5" y="314.7" width="9" height="60.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="249.5" y="325.4" width="9" height="49.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="264.5" y="328.0" width="9" height="46.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="279.5" y="330.7" width="9" height="44.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="294.5" y="333.4" width="9" height="41.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="309.5" y="334.7" width="9" height="40.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="324.5" y="336.0" width="9" height="38.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
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<text x="24" y="308.7" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
<text x="224.0" y="302.7" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer la nivel (low 41.90)</text>
|
||
<text x="239.0" y="220.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">acumulare</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="405" fill="#555">bara 13: 42.95 peste 42.90, volum bun.</text>
|
||
</g><g transform="translate(462,38)">
|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Mediocru — hammer fără nivel</text>
|
||
<line x1="24" y1="153.5" x2="416" y2="153.5" stroke="#777" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||
<text x="30" y="147.5" fill="#777">fără nivel apropiat (suport 42.50 la −3,6 %)</text>
|
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<line x1="44.0" y1="56.0" x2="44.0" y2="80.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="39.5" y="62.5" width="9" height="10.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="59.0" y1="56.0" x2="59.0" y2="88.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="54.5" y="62.5" width="9" height="18.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="74.0" y1="61.2" x2="74.0" y2="88.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="69.5" y="67.7" width="9" height="13.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="89.0" y1="61.2" x2="89.0" y2="93.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="84.5" y="67.7" width="9" height="18.2" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="104.0" y1="66.4" x2="104.0" y2="93.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="99.5" y="72.9" width="9" height="13.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="119.0" y1="66.4" x2="119.0" y2="98.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="114.5" y="72.9" width="9" height="18.2" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="134.0" y1="71.6" x2="134.0" y2="98.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="129.5" y="78.1" width="9" height="13.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
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<line x1="149.0" y1="71.6" x2="149.0" y2="101.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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<rect x="144.5" y="78.1" width="9" height="15.6" fill="#c00"/>
|
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<line x1="164.0" y1="76.8" x2="164.0" y2="101.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
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|
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|
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<rect x="174.5" y="83.3" width="9" height="13.0" fill="#c00"/>
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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<rect x="69.5" y="182.7" width="9" height="56.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
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|
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<rect x="99.5" y="184.9" width="9" height="54.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
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<rect x="114.5" y="188.1" width="9" height="51.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
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<rect x="129.5" y="183.8" width="9" height="55.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
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|
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|
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<rect x="174.5" y="184.9" width="9" height="54.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
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<rect x="189.5" y="185.9" width="9" height="53.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
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<rect x="204.5" y="187.0" width="9" height="52.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
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<rect x="219.5" y="179.5" width="9" height="60.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
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<rect x="234.5" y="206.3" width="9" height="33.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
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<rect x="249.5" y="183.8" width="9" height="55.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="264.5" y="185.9" width="9" height="53.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="279.5" y="188.1" width="9" height="51.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="294.5" y="184.9" width="9" height="54.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="309.5" y="187.0" width="9" height="52.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<rect x="324.5" y="189.1" width="9" height="50.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||
<text x="24" y="173.5" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
<text x="224.0" y="131.9" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer în mijloc de range</text>
|
||
<text x="239.0" y="69.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">volum slab</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="270" fill="#555">bara 13: 45.15 peste 45.10, volum slab.</text>
|
||
</g><text x="450" y="479" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-size:10px">Reguli din curs: locația la un nivel major, scăderea dinainte și volumul; trimiterile stau în fișa de surse.</text><text x="450" y="493" fill="#555" text-anchor="middle" style="font-size:10px">Nivelurile 42.00 / 42.50 și cifrele de preț sunt construite (materialul nu dă prețuri pentru acest contrast).</text></svg></p>
|
||
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_aplus -->
|
||
|
||
<table>
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>Criteriu</th>
|
||
<th>A+</th>
|
||
<th>Mediocru sau NU</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>Trendul dinainte</td>
|
||
<td>scădere clară spre un nivel major</td>
|
||
<td>fără scădere, sau într-o urcare (devine hanging man)</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>Locația</td>
|
||
<td>suport weekly / monthly / quarterly, ideal al doilea test fără minim nou</td>
|
||
<td>mijloc de range, fără nivel</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>Volumul</td>
|
||
<td>acumulare sau divergență; „volumul e la cer" după hammer</td>
|
||
<td>slab, „varză"</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>Evenimente</td>
|
||
<td>fără raport în zilele următoare</td>
|
||
<td>earnings în 1-2 zile</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
<p>Nota de citat: „varză" e cuvântul din lecția de buy doji, împrumutat aici ca
|
||
antonim al volumului bun; lecția de hammer nu-l folosește.</p>
|
||
<p>Mai rar citate, dar tot confirmări: confluența cu un buy doji pe aceeași zonă,
|
||
un minim mai sus decât precedentul, un double bottom, sau filtrul Bull
|
||
Reversal pe scaner, care îți scurtează lista la candidații care au arătat deja
|
||
schimbarea de forță.</p>
|
||
<p>O observație din backtesting-ul autorului, care explică de ce pattern-ul apare
|
||
atât de des la fund: low-ul zilei e de cele mai multe ori un doji sau un
|
||
hammer.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="ce-face-un-mbt-10-a">Ce face un MBT-10 A+</h2>
|
||
<p>Singurul caz pe care materialul îl numește „cel mai puternic": un <strong>gap up</strong>
|
||
în MBT-10 după o cădere masivă, departe de medie, cu indicatorul stochastic în
|
||
zona de supravânzare pe monthly și weekly, cu un double bottom sau o serie de
|
||
doji-uri ideal în locul crimei, și cu divergență de volum pe ultimul picior.</p>
|
||
<p>Opusul: MBT-10 pe o bară oarecare, luat direct din scaner, fără nicio
|
||
confluență. Diferența nu e forma semnalului — el arată la fel, fiindcă nu se
|
||
vede — ci contextul din jur.</p>
|
||
<p><a id="gap-down"></a></p>
|
||
<h2 id="dupa-un-gap-down-primul-semnal-e-adesea-prea-devreme">După un gap down, primul semnal e adesea prea devreme</h2>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: mbt_gapdown -->
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 820 573" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">După gap down — primul MBT-10 te scoate, al doilea merge (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="792" y="229.2" fill="#777" text-anchor="end">#1 intrare 64.80</text>
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<text x="792" y="274.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="end">#1 SL 63.20</text>
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<text x="792" y="302.0" fill="#777" text-anchor="end">#2 intrare 62.20</text>
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<text x="792" y="352.4" fill="#777" text-anchor="end">#2 SL 60.40</text>
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<text x="792" y="66.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP 70.60 = 4.7R (gap închis)</text>
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<text x="24" y="400.8" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||
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|
||
<text x="284.0" y="172.2" fill="#777" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 #1</text>
|
||
<text x="314.0" y="330.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">stop #1 atins</text>
|
||
<text x="359.0" y="358.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">MBT-10 #2</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="515" fill="#555">MBT-10 #1: intrare 64.80 / SL 63.20 — risc 1R în bani</text><text x="24" y="531" fill="#555">MBT-10 #2: intrare 62.20 / SL 60.40 — risc 1R în bani (mărime ajustată)</text><text x="24" y="547" fill="#555">Exemplu construit: #1 și #2 au același risc în bani; #2 singur dă 4.7R.</text><text x="24" y="563" fill="#555">De aceea mărimea se împarte pe 2-3 încercări.</text></svg></p>
|
||
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: mbt_gapdown -->
|
||
|
||
<p>Ăsta e cazul care justifică împărțirea riscului de la <a href="#pasul-b4">pasul B4</a>.
|
||
Prețul cade cu un gol de la circa 71 la 66.40. Primul MBT-10 se închide la
|
||
64.80, cu stopul la 63.20, și e stopat. Al doilea se închide mai jos, la
|
||
62.20, cu stopul la 60.40 — <strong>același risc în bani</strong>, cu mărimea ajustată la
|
||
distanța mai mare. De acolo prețul urcă și închide gap-ul la 70.60, adică
|
||
4,7R. Încercarea a doua singură acoperă pierderea de la prima și lasă profit.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="cascada-de-confirmari">Cascada de confirmări</h2>
|
||
<p>Când ai semnal pe mai multe timeframe-uri, materialul le pune în ordine:
|
||
MBT-10 pe 60 de minute, apoi buy doji pe daily, apoi pe weekly, apoi pe
|
||
monthly. Regula: <strong>intri la prima treaptă</strong>, restul îți spun dacă rămâi în
|
||
trade, nu dacă intri.</p>
|
||
<p>Asta se bate parțial cu ideea că MBT-10 e ultima piesă din flux
|
||
(fundamental → monthly → weekly → daily → MBT-10). Vezi contradicția 3.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="exemplul-real-labu-buy-hammer-la-suportul-monthly">Exemplul real: LABU, buy hammer la suportul monthly</h2>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: bh_labu -->
|
||
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|
||
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">LABU — daily</text>
|
||
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|
||
<text x="30" y="192.9" fill="#777">suport monthly 80.00</text>
|
||
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|
||
<text x="732" y="196.1" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL sub low-ul hammer-ului 79.60 (construit)</text>
|
||
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||
<text x="732" y="182.5" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 81.30 (construit)</text>
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<text x="605" y="150" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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<text x="24" y="222.1" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="389.0" y="216.1" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">hammer 80.90 / 79.60 (construit)</text>
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<text x="599.0" y="46.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">+20 % (cifra cursului): 97.56 / 81.30</text>
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<text x="24" y="320.1" fill="#c00">bara 23 = hammer: o 80.80, h 80.90, l 79.60, c 80.90 — corp 0.10, fitil jos 1.20 (H=C), pe suportul 80.00</text>
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<text x="24" y="337.1" fill="#c00">bara 24 = confirmare: close 81.30 — close peste high-ul hammer-ului 80.90 = intrare 81.30 (construit)</text>
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<text x="24" y="354.1" fill="#188a3e">Procentul (+20 % în jumătate de lună) și contextul (suport monthly) sunt ale cursului;</text>
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<text x="24" y="379" fill="#555">nivelurile de preț sunt construite de sumarizator.</text>
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</svg></p>
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<!-- /DIAGRAMA: bh_labu -->
|
||
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<p><strong>Ce e real:</strong> doar că a fost un buy hammer la suportul monthly și că a făcut
|
||
<strong>+20 % în jumătate de lună</strong>. Autorul: „din suportul nostru monthly a
|
||
plecat". Materialul <strong>nu dă intrare, stop sau țintă</strong> pentru cazul ăsta;
|
||
prețurile de pe diagramă sunt puse de mine, ca să se vadă structura.</p>
|
||
<p>Pașii, pe el: scădere până în suportul monthly, hammer chiar pe nivel,
|
||
candela următoare se închide peste high-ul lui, stopul sub low-ul lui.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="exemplul-real-tesla-trigger-mbt-10">Exemplul real: Tesla, trigger MBT-10</h2>
|
||
<!-- DIAGRAMA: mbt_tesla -->
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 620 510" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Tesla — daily: trigger MBT-10, intrare 311.21 → 333.00 = +7.0 % în 6 zile</text>
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<text x="30" y="419.7" fill="#188a3e">intrare 311.21 (close)</text>
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<text x="592" y="256.2" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">rezultat 333.00 = +7.0 % în 6 zile</text>
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<rect x="399.5" y="284.8" width="9" height="15.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||
<text x="269.0" y="444.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">trigger MBT-10</text>
|
||
<text x="359.0" y="232.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">exact 6 bare</text>
|
||
<text x="24" y="468" fill="#555">Cifrele 311.21 / 333.00 / +7.0 % sunt reale;</text><text x="24" y="484" fill="#555">structura barelor dintre ele e construită.</text><text x="24" y="500" fill="#555">SL: materialul nu îl dă pentru acest exemplu.</text></svg></p>
|
||
<!-- /DIAGRAMA: mbt_tesla -->
|
||
|
||
<p><strong>Ce e real:</strong> intrarea la închiderea zilei, <strong>311.21</strong>, ieșirea la <strong>333.00</strong>
|
||
șase zile mai târziu, adică <strong>+7,0 %</strong> pe acțiune. Pe opțiuni, aceeași mișcare
|
||
a însemnat 50-70 %. <strong>Ce lipsește:</strong> materialul nu dă stopul acestui exemplu,
|
||
deci diagrama nu îl desenează.</p>
|
||
<p>Al doilea caz citat, fără prețuri, e Oracle: double bottom plus buy hammer
|
||
plus MBT-10, un setup de manual — dar cu raport în zilele următoare, deci
|
||
gamble trade, deci nu se intră. Un setup complet nu anulează riscul de
|
||
eveniment.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="transfer-judecata-mea-nu-a-cursului">Transfer (judecata mea, nu a cursului)</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>Pe prop.</strong> Limita zilnică de pierdere se calculează și pe pozițiile
|
||
deschise, iar ambele strategii țin poziția peste noapte prin construcție —
|
||
deci dacă firma interzice overnight-ul, rămâne doar varianta de 60 de minute.
|
||
Sizing-ul calculat înapoi din limită, pe un cont de 50.000 $ cu limită zilnică
|
||
de 1.000 $: o zi proastă planificată ≤ 500 $, cu cel mult două poziții
|
||
simultane, deci 250 $ pe poziție (0,5 %). La buy hammer, cu distanța de 1.30:
|
||
192 de acțiuni. La MBT-10, cu distanța de 2.60: 96 de acțiuni. După un gap
|
||
down, cei 250 $ se împart la două-trei încercări.</p>
|
||
<p>Verdict: <strong>buy hammer merge</strong> cu ajustările astea, fiindcă intrarea e pur preț
|
||
și stopul e structural. <strong>MBT-10 doar parțial</strong>, la firme care permit swing
|
||
peste noapte și doar pe aproximarea „close peste pivotul daily".</p>
|
||
<p><strong>Pe BVB.</strong> Scanerele și indicatorii proprietari nu există, deci lucrezi cu o
|
||
listă manuală de 8-12 nume lichide din BET (TLV, H2O, SNP, SNN, BRD, SNG, EL,
|
||
TGN, DIGI, M) și cu pivoți calculați în Excel din maximul, minimul și
|
||
închiderea perioadei precedente:</p>
|
||
<pre><code>PP = (H + L + C) / 3
|
||
R1 = 2*PP - L S1 = 2*PP - H
|
||
R2 = PP + (H - L) S2 = PP - (H - L)
|
||
</code></pre>
|
||
<p>Autorul a confirmat că pivoții clasici se calculează „1 la 1" pe BVB, fără
|
||
platforma lui. Pragurile US nu se traduc în număr de acțiuni; măsoară în
|
||
valoare: cel puțin 1-2 milioane RON pe zi, medie pe 10 zile, spread sub 1 %,
|
||
și cel puțin 30-50 de tranzacții pe zi. Short-ul practic nu se poate face, deci
|
||
rămâne doar jumătatea long. Un spread de 1 % mănâncă jumătate dintr-o țintă
|
||
1:1.</p>
|
||
<p>Verdict: <strong>buy hammer merge degradat, long-only</strong> — toată regula de intrare și
|
||
ieșire se aplică, pierzi scanerul, filtrele și short-ul. <strong>MBT-10 nu merge ca
|
||
sistem</strong>: din el supraviețuiește doar condiția de close peste pivotul daily,
|
||
fără indicator, fără scaner, fără cascadă, cu un edge mult mai slab.</p>
|
||
<p>Cifrele de sizing și pragurile de lichiditate de mai sus sunt calculul meu;
|
||
materialul nu dă risc per trade pentru niciuna dintre cele două jumătăți și
|
||
nu dă niciun prag pentru BVB.</p>
|
||
<p><a id="contradictii"></a></p>
|
||
<h2 id="unde-se-contrazice-materialul">Unde se contrazice materialul</h2>
|
||
<p>Nu aleg eu între variante.</p>
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li><strong>A doua închidere peste pivot e regulă de MBT-10 sau de alt semnal?</strong> O
|
||
sesiune o leagă explicit de MBT-10 („așteptați un MBT-10 să închidă măcar o
|
||
perioadă și vedeți și a doua oară dacă se închide"); alte două surse o leagă
|
||
de pivotul daily și de MP², fără să pomenească MBT-10. Practic: folosește-o
|
||
ca filtru de bottom dacă vrei, dar nu conta că e „regula MBT-10".</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Momentul trigger-ului la hammer: scaner sau pattern?</strong> Scanerul tratează
|
||
<code>BHATM = 0</code> ca moment al semnalului, adică ziua-hammer; lecția de pattern
|
||
cere închiderea zilei următoare. Nu e o contradicție de fond — scanerul dă
|
||
candidatul, pattern-ul dă intrarea — dar sunt două prețuri de intrare
|
||
diferite.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>MBT-10 e ultima piesă, sau se intră și înainte?</strong> O sursă pune fluxul
|
||
fundamental → monthly → weekly → daily → MBT-10, cu intrarea la close-ul în
|
||
MBT-10. Sinteza arată mai multe cazuri în care se intră mai devreme (buy
|
||
doji pe 60 de minute în direcția swing-ului daily, MICI, buy momentum direct).
|
||
Practic: MBT-10 e ultima piesă <strong>pe daily</strong>, nu în general.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Gap: intri pe el sau aștepți jumătatea lui?</strong> O sursă numește gap up-ul în
|
||
MBT-10 „cel mai puternic caz"; alta spune să nu cumperi după gap și să
|
||
aștepți interiorul lui. Sinteza împacă parțial: cu semnal confirmat la close,
|
||
gap-ul poate rămâne deschis; fără semnal, nu te poziționa înainte de
|
||
închiderea lui.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Rata de reușită a trigger-ului:</strong> „65-70 %" într-o lecție, „așa la 60 %"
|
||
după o scădere lungă în altă sesiune. Socotește cu 60 % și nu sări stopul pe
|
||
baza cifrei mai mari.</li>
|
||
<li><strong>Formula MBT-10 lipsește</strong>, și ambele surse care o ating sunt de acord că
|
||
lipsește. Nu inventa una.</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
<p>Contradicțiile din material, toate la un loc:
|
||
<a href="A2_contradictii.html"><code>A2_contradictii.md</code></a>.</p>
|
||
<h2 id="ce-trebuie-sa-exersezi">Ce trebuie să exersezi</h2>
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li>Marchează retroactiv 20 de hammer-e pe daily, pe 8-12 nume lichide: data,
|
||
cele patru prețuri, dacă a confirmat în candela următoare, care era nivelul
|
||
major cel mai apropiat și ce s-a întâmplat în următoarele 5 zile.</li>
|
||
<li>Calculează pivoții daily și monthly pentru 6 luni în urmă, pe 5 nume, în
|
||
Excel, și numără câte hammer-e au căzut la cel mult 1 % de un nivel. Vezi
|
||
cât filtrează condiția.</li>
|
||
<li>Compară pe hârtie hammer la nivel major cu hammer în mijlocul range-ului, pe
|
||
minim 15 perechi de semnale.</li>
|
||
<li>Testează aproximarea MBT-10 (close peste pivotul daily) pe 20 de zile, pe
|
||
2-3 nume, cu stopul sub structură, ca să vezi cât de slab e edge-ul fără
|
||
indicator.</li>
|
||
<li>Măsoară spread-ul real, 5 zile la rând, și scoate de pe listă ce trece de 1 %.</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
<h2 id="legaturi">Legături</h2>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><a href="01_buy_doji.html"><code>01_buy_doji.md</code></a> — același schelet (formă de candelă →
|
||
confirmare la close → stop structural). Buy hammer apare des chiar după un
|
||
buy doji; când sunt pe aceeași candelă, semnalul e mai puternic.</li>
|
||
<li><a href="02_mp2.html"><code>02_mp2.md</code></a> — MP² spune <em>unde</em> (bottom, pivoți), trigger-ul de
|
||
candelă spune <em>când</em>. Contradicția 1 arată că regula celor două închideri
|
||
peste pivot e atribuită când lui MBT-10, când lui MP².</li>
|
||
<li><a href="04_selectia.html"><code>04_selectia.md</code></a> — cum alegi simbolul.</li>
|
||
<li><a href="A1_risc.html"><code>A1_risc.md</code></a> — riscul și execuția.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<hr />
|
||
<p><a id="checklist"></a></p>
|
||
<h2 id="checklist-de-tiparit">Checklist de tipărit</h2>
|
||
<p><strong>Buy hammer</strong></p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>[ ] (A1) Scădere clară înainte — nu urcare, altfel e hanging man.</li>
|
||
<li>[ ] (A1) Fitilul de jos ≥ 2x corpul, corpul în treimea de sus.</li>
|
||
<li>[ ] (A2) Low-ul la cel mult 1-2 % de un suport sau pivot weekly / monthly / quarterly.</li>
|
||
<li>[ ] (A3) Candela următoare s-a închis peste high-ul hammer-ului.</li>
|
||
<li>[ ] (A4) Stop sub low-ul hammer-ului (sau sub double bottom); acțiuni = risc / distanță.</li>
|
||
<li>[ ] (A5) Prima jumătate la 1:1; restul pe trail sub swing low-uri.</li>
|
||
<li>[ ] Fără earnings în zilele următoare.</li>
|
||
<li>[ ] Short: urcare înainte, corp jos, fitil sus, close sub low, stop deasupra, preț peste 10 $.</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<p><strong>MBT-10</strong></p>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li>[ ] (B1) Am o idee de bottom cu cel puțin o confluență, pe care o pot arăta cu degetul.</li>
|
||
<li>[ ] (B2) Aștept închiderea barei — nu mă uit la „în formare".</li>
|
||
<li>[ ] (B3) Ziua s-a închis peste pivotul daily.</li>
|
||
<li>[ ] (B4) Știu structura de sub stop; după un gap down, împart riscul la 2-3 încercări.</li>
|
||
<li>[ ] (B5) Ținta e o structură din stânga, nu un procent — strategia nu are țintă proprie.</li>
|
||
<li>[ ] Fără earnings în zilele următoare.</li>
|
||
<li>[ ] Am acceptat că formula rămâne necunoscută, deci semnalul nu e verificabil independent.</li>
|
||
</ul><nav class="pager"><a class="prev" href="05_atmi.html">← 05. 5. ATMI (Strategia 2 de investiții)</a><a class="up" href="../index.html#17_STRATEGII">↑ index</a><a class="next" href="07_mdsrt.html">07. 7. MDSRT (Strategia 5) →</a></nav>
|
||
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|
||
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