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MODUL 5: 24 de reparatii pe cele doua strategii, dupa verificare

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Opt erau blocante, adica un cititor ar fi executat gresit pe cont:

- 56% era legat de o intrare la 133 care da de fapt 35,3%; cifra se propaga in
  dimensionarea pozitiei. Acum spune ca 56% e rostit separat si ca raportul nu
  se verifica.
- "2/3 taie jumatate din risc" era fals (29,3% vs 35,3%).
- definitia lui buy doji se contrazicea cu regula de 4 luni din acelasi
  document.
- diagrama de trail arata stopul deasupra pretului: liniile traversau tot
  graficul, deci in stanga stateau peste candele. Acum fiecare porneste din
  swing low-ul care o declanseaza, cu cele patru swing low-uri marcate.
- linia gatului era data ca "media celor doua varfuri", ceea ce nu reproduce
  63.00 pe propriul desen; e din interiorul gatului.
- singura regula mecanica de "nu intra" nu era desenata cu mecanismul ei:
  panoul de volum avea bare egale de la o baza, in loc de histograma cu semn.
- "SL minim 54.17" se citea invers decat intelege textul: e pretul cel mai
  sus permis, nu stopul cel mai stramt.
- lectura "TP2 vine inaintea lui TP1" era prezentata ca geometrie in doua
  diagrame, desi fraza-sursa e neinteligibila si sursa sprijina la fel de bine
  varianta in care se recalculeaza si TP si SL. Acum e marcata ca lectura
  chiar acolo unde e folosita, cu varianta alternativa alaturi.

svg_candles are trei adaugiri optionale (Level.i0, Level.label_dy,
Chart.vol_zero) cerute de reparatiile de mai sus; selftest-ul trece si
diagramele existente nu se schimba daca nu sunt regenerate.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ThN7ixZrowca8aTGrK1MUJ
This commit is contained in:
Claude Agent
2026-10-02 02:35:51 +00:00
parent 0dd358802d
commit c198cd0a7b
7 changed files with 1184 additions and 945 deletions
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140
gen/strategia_7_micis.py
View File

@@ -49,6 +49,28 @@ def hi(cds, a, b):
return round(max(c.h for c in cds[a:b + 1]), 2)
def run_desc(cds, end):
"""Câte bare consecutive, terminând cu `end`, au high-uri descrescătoare.
Regula strategiei e „5-8 candele"; cititorul numără pe desen după
high-uri (`04_6_...txt:142`), deci eticheta zonei se calculează de aici,
nu se scrie de mână. Altfel desenul ajunge să încalce propria regulă.
"""
k = 1
while end - k >= 0 and cds[end - k].h > cds[end - k + 1].h:
k += 1
return k
def zona_downtrend(cds, end, color="#c00"):
"""Zone(…) peste run-ul descrescător care se termină la bara `end`."""
n = run_desc(cds, end)
assert 5 <= n <= 8, \
f"downtrend-ul desenat are {n} candele cu high-uri descrescătoare, " \
f"iar strategia cere 5-8"
return Zone(end - n + 1, end, f"downtrend {n} candele", color)
def deco(ch, name, distante=(), intregi=()):
"""Randează graficul, verifică etichetele, salvează.
@@ -90,8 +112,8 @@ CONSTRUIT = "Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. R-urile sunt ale mele
# =========================================================== seria construită
# Un singur trade construit, folosit de trei diagrame (harta, pasul 1, țintele),
# ca să nu se schimbe cifrele de la o secțiune la alta.
CL = ([64.00, 63.00, 62.00, 61.00, 58.50, 56.00, 54.00] # 0-6 context
+ [52.00, 50.00, 48.00, 45.50, 43.00, 41.50, 39.90] # 7-13 downtrend, 7 bare
CL = ([64.00, 65.80, 64.30, 65.90, 64.20, 62.80, 64.00] # 0-6 consolidare
+ [60.50, 57.00, 53.50, 50.00, 46.50, 43.00, 39.90] # 7-13 downtrend, 7 bare
+ [40.00] # 14 doji
+ [45.00] # 15 marubozu de trigger
+ [43.20, 42.60] # 16-17 pullback-ul
@@ -112,6 +134,8 @@ assert (DOJI_LO, DOJI_HI, H_DOJI) == (38.00, 42.00, 4.00), (DOJI_LO, DOJI_HI)
assert abs(CDS[14].c - CDS[14].o) <= 0.10 * H_DOJI, "candela 14 nu e doji"
assert CDS[15].c > DOJI_HI, "trigger-ul nu închide peste high-ul doji-ului"
assert lo(CDS, 7, 13) < lo(CDS, 0, 6), "downtrend-ul numărat nu coboară"
assert run_desc(CDS, 13) == 7, \
f"înaintea doji-ului trebuie 7 bare cu high descrescător, sunt {run_desc(CDS, 13)}"
TRIG_HI, TRIG_LO = hi(CDS, 15, 15), lo(CDS, 15, 15)
H_TRIG = round(TRIG_HI - TRIG_LO, 2) # 5.00
@@ -138,17 +162,20 @@ deco(Chart(
Level(E1, f"intrare 1/3 la close {E1:.2f}", "#188a3e"),
Level(E2, f"limit 1/3 la {E2:.2f}", "#188a3e", label_at="left"),
Level(E3, f"limit 1/3 la {E3:.2f}", "#188a3e", label_at="left"),
Level(MED, f"preț mediu {MED:.2f}", "#6a3d9a"),
Level(TP2, f"TP2 {TP2:.2f}", "#1a5fb4"),
# prețul mediu există abia după ce s-a umplut a treia tranșă:
# linia pornește de acolo, deci nu mai taie eticheta limitului
Level(MED, f"preț mediu {MED:.2f}", "#6a3d9a", i0=17),
Level(TP2, f"TP2 {TP2:.2f} — lectura mea", "#1a5fb4", i0=17),
Level(TP1, f"TP1 {TP1:.2f}", "#1a5fb4")],
marks=[Mark(14, "doji", "#b06000", "below", dy=14),
Mark(15, "buy doji", "#188a3e", dy=-6),
Mark(17, "se umplu limiturile", "#188a3e", "below", dy=44),
Mark(5, "consolidare", "#888", "below"),
Mark(17, "se umplu limiturile", "#188a3e", "below", dy=0),
Mark(23, "ieși, nu aștepți", "#1a5fb4", dy=-8)],
zones=[Zone(7, 13, "downtrend 7 candele", "#c00"),
zones=[zona_downtrend(CDS, 13),
Zone(15, 17, "fereastra de intrare", "#188a3e")],
mas=[MA(20, "#b06000", dash="4 3", text="SMA-20")],
scale=18.0, gap=17, body_w=9, left=52, width=700, vol_h=70,
mas=[MA(20, "#b06000", dash="4 3")],
scale=18.0, gap=17, body_w=9, left=52, width=700, top=76, vol_h=70,
vol_label="volum", title="MICIS, tot trade-ul — weekly (exemplu construit)",
caption=CONSTRUIT), "harta", distante=(R1, R2, H_DOJI))
@@ -167,7 +194,7 @@ deco(Chart(
levels=[Level(PIV, f"pivot quarterly {PIV:.2f}", "#b06000", label_at="left"),
Level(DOJI_LO, f"low-ul doji-ului {DOJI_LO:.2f}", "#6a3d9a")],
marks=[Mark(25, "doji", "#b06000", dy=-18)],
zones=[Zone(18, 24, "downtrend 7 candele", "#c00")],
zones=[zona_downtrend(cds2, 24)],
mas=[MA(20, "#b06000", dash="4 3", text="SMA-20")],
scale=8.0, gap=17, body_w=9, left=52, width=700, vol_h=70,
vol_label="volum", title="Pasul 1, DA — doji weekly pe pivotul quarterly",
@@ -179,18 +206,26 @@ cl3 = (ramp(41.00, 47.00, 6) + [46.50, 47.50] + ramp(47.50, 53.00, 6)
+ [52.40, 53.20] + ramp(53.20, 59.00, 6) + [58.60, 59.40, 58.80]
+ [59.00] + [58.40, 57.00, 55.00])
wk3 = [(0.35, 0.35)] * 25 + [(1.60, 1.50)] + [(0.40, 0.40)] * 3
vl3 = vols(29, 48, 12, i22=38, i23=34, i24=30, i25=26, i26=34, i27=44, i28=52)
# volumul trebuie să scadă pe TOT uptrend-ul, nu doar pe ultimele bare:
# eticheta „volum în scădere" se citește peste zona verde, nu peste 4 bare
vl3 = ([50.0, 52.0, 48.0, 54.0, 50.0, 52.0]
+ [62.0, 60.0, 58.0, 56.0, 54.0, 52.0, 50.0, 48.0, 46.0, 44.0,
42.0, 40.0, 38.0, 36.0, 33.0, 30.0, 28.0, 26.0, 25.0, 24.0]
+ [40.0, 56.0, 68.0])
cds3 = from_closes(cl3, wicks=wk3, vols=vl3, start=40.00)
assert abs(cds3[25].c - cds3[25].o) <= 0.10 * (cds3[25].h - cds3[25].l), \
"candela 25 nu e doji"
assert cds3[25].c > cds3[0].c and hi(cds3, 25, 25) == hi(cds3, 0, 28), \
"doji-ul trebuie să cadă în vârful unui uptrend"
assert vl3[25] == min(vl3), "volumul trebuie să fie cel mai mic la doji"
assert all(vl3[i] > vl3[i + 1] for i in range(6, 25)), \
"barele de volum trebuie să scadă pe toată zona de uptrend, cât ține eticheta"
assert vl3[26] < vl3[27] < vl3[28], "volumul trebuie să revină pe corecție"
deco(Chart(
candles=cds3,
marks=[Mark(25, "doji aici: după uptrend", "#c00", dy=-10),
Mark(22, "volum în scădere", "#c00", "below", dy=24),
Mark(28, "urmează corecția", "#c00", "below", dy=14),
Mark(16, "volum în scădere pe tot uptrend-ul", "#c00", "below", dy=24),
Mark(28, "urmează corecția, cu volum", "#c00", "below", dy=14),
Mark(12, "uptrend", "#188a3e", "below", dy=38)],
zones=[Zone(6, 24, "", "#188a3e")],
mas=[MA(20, "#b06000", dash="4 3", text="SMA-20")],
@@ -222,9 +257,12 @@ assert lo(JC, 14, 14) <= J_E2 and lo(JC, 15, 15) <= J_E3, "ladder-ul nu se umple
deco(Chart(
candles=JC,
levels=[Level(J_E1, f"intrare 1/3 la close {J_E1:.2f}", "#188a3e"),
# limiturile există abia după close-ul candelei de trigger, deci
# liniile pornesc de la ea: altfel taie eticheta de dedesubt
Level(J_E2, f"limit 1/3 la {J_E2:.2f} = 1/3 din marubozu", "#188a3e",
label_at="left"),
Level(J_E3, "limit 1/3 la 1/2 din marubozu", "#6a3d9a")],
i0=13),
Level(J_E3, "limit 1/3 la 1/2 din marubozu", "#6a3d9a",
label_at="left")],
marks=[Mark(12, "doji", "#b06000", "below", dy=14),
Mark(13, "marubozu de trigger", "#188a3e", dy=-26),
Mark(15, "pullback-ul umple ambele limituri", "#188a3e", "below", dy=38)],
@@ -254,7 +292,9 @@ assert lo(AC, 16, 26) > A_E2, "ladder-ul NU trebuie să se umple pe acest desen"
deco(Chart(
candles=AC,
levels=[Level(A_E1, f"intrare 1/3 la close {A_E1:.2f}", "#188a3e"),
Level(A_E2, f"limit 1/3 la {A_E2:.2f} — niciodată atins", "#c00",
# înălțimea candelei nu e rostită pe AMD, deci nivelul de 1/3 nu
# primește cifră — aceeași regulă ca pe JNJ
Level(A_E2, "limit 1/3 — niciodată atins", "#c00",
label_at="left"),
Level(180.00, "unde a ajuns: 180", "#1a5fb4")],
marks=[Mark(14, "doji", "#b06000", "below", dy=14),
@@ -273,7 +313,11 @@ N_CL = ([20.00, 23.50, 27.00, 25.00, 31.00, 38.00, 45.00, 42.00, 50.00, 55.00,
+ [100.50] # 21 doji
+ [133.00] # 22 marubozu de trigger
+ [141.00, 152.00, 164.00, 175.00, 182.00]) # 23-27 spre 182
N_WK = ([(1.50, 1.50)] * 16 + [(3.00, 3.00)] * 5 + [(13.00, 14.50)]
# bara 16 e vârful: fitil de respingere deasupra, ca high-ul ei să fie
# cel mai sus din downtrend și numărătoarea după high-uri să dea 5, cât
# spune eticheta
N_WK = ([(1.50, 1.50)] * 16 + [(5.00, 3.00)] + [(3.00, 3.00)] * 4
+ [(13.00, 14.50)]
+ [(0.50, 1.50)] + [(2.00, 2.00)] * 5)
N_VL = vols(28, 46, 12, i19=66, i20=78, i21=84, i22=104, i23=86, i24=80)
NC = from_closes(N_CL, wicks=N_WK, vols=N_VL, start=19.00)
@@ -294,7 +338,7 @@ deco(Chart(
Level(182.00, "ținta rostită: 182", "#1a5fb4")],
marks=[Mark(21, "doji monthly, înălțime 28", "#b06000", "below", dy=16),
Mark(22, "marubozu de trigger", "#188a3e", dy=-70)],
zones=[Zone(16, 20, "downtrend 5 candele", "#c00")],
zones=[zona_downtrend(NC, 20)],
mas=[MA(20, "#b06000", dash="4 3", text="SMA-20")],
scale=2.4, gap=19, body_w=10, left=58, width=700, top=60, vol_h=70,
vol_label="volum", title="Pasul 3, stopul — NVDA monthly",
@@ -312,18 +356,18 @@ deco(Chart(
candles=cds4,
levels=[Level(SL, f"SL {SL:.2f}", "#c00", label_at="left"),
Level(MED, f"preț mediu {MED:.2f}", "#6a3d9a"),
Level(E1, f"intrare 1 la {E1:.2f}", "#188a3e"),
Level(E1, f"intrare 1/3 la {E1:.2f}", "#188a3e"),
Level(TP2, f"TP2 {TP2:.2f}", "#1a5fb4"),
Level(TP1, f"TP1 {TP1:.2f}", "#1a5fb4")],
arrows=[Arrow(10, f"TP2 = 1R pe medie ({R2:.2f})", price=TP2, where="left",
color="#1a5fb4", dx=-6),
color="#1a5fb4", dx=-6, dy=-16),
Arrow(12, f"TP1 = 1R pe prima tranșă ({R1:.2f})", price=TP1,
where="above", color="#1a5fb4", dy=-10)],
mas=[MA(20, "#b06000", dash="4 3", text="SMA-20")],
scale=13.0, gap=28, body_w=14, left=60, width=700, top=56,
title="Pasul 4, cele două ținte — weekly (exemplu construit)",
caption="Mediind în jos, 1R se scurtează: TP2 vine înaintea lui TP1. "
"R-urile sunt ale mele."),
caption="Lectura mea: mediind în jos, TP2 vine înaintea lui TP1. "
"Fraza-sursă e neinteligibilă aici."),
"pasul4_tinte", distante=(R1, R2))
# --------------------------------------------------- 8. pasul 5 — trail-ul
@@ -334,23 +378,37 @@ cl5 = (ramp(44.00, 50.00, 5) + [49.20, 48.60, 49.40] # 0-7 trail 1
wk5 = [(0.40, 0.40)] * 30
vl5 = vols(30, 50, 12)
cds5 = from_closes(cl5, wicks=wk5, vols=vl5, start=43.00)
# fiecare trail e declanșat de un swing low anume; linia lui pornește de la
# bara aceea, nu din marginea desenului
SW = [6, 14, 22, 29]
t1, t2, t3, t4 = (lo(cds5, 5, 7), lo(cds5, 13, 15), lo(cds5, 21, 23),
lo(cds5, 28, 29))
assert t1 < t2 < t3 < t4, (t1, t2, t3, t4)
# regresia de prins: o linie de trail nu are voie să treacă pe deasupra
# prețului la dreapta ei — altfel desenul arată o poziție deja stopată
for _i0, _t in zip(SW, (t1, t2, t3, t4)):
assert all(c.l >= _t - 1e-9 for c in cds5[_i0:]), \
f"trail-ul {_t} de la bara {_i0} trece peste low-ul unei bare de după"
assert lo(cds5, max(0, _i0 - 1), min(_i0 + 1, len(cds5) - 1)) == _t, \
f"trail-ul {_t} nu e ancorat de swing low-ul de la bara {_i0}"
deco(Chart(
candles=cds5,
levels=[Level(t1, f"trail 1: {t1:.2f}", "#c00", label_at="left"),
Level(t2, f"trail 2: {t2:.2f}", "#c00", label_at="left"),
Level(t3, f"trail 3: {t3:.2f}", "#c00"),
Level(t4, f"trail 4: {t4:.2f}", "#c00")],
marks=[Mark(6, "swing low", "#c00", "below", dy=14),
Mark(14, "swing low mai sus → muți stopul", "#c00", dy=-10)],
mas=[MA(20, "#b06000", dash="4 3", text="SMA-20")],
# etichetele la dreapta: la stânga ar cădea peste candele, pentru că
# fiecare linie începe acum în mijlocul desenului
levels=[Level(t1, f"trail 1: {t1:.2f}", "#c00", i0=SW[0]),
Level(t2, f"trail 2: {t2:.2f}", "#c00", i0=SW[1]),
Level(t3, f"trail 3: {t3:.2f}", "#c00", i0=SW[2]),
Level(t4, f"trail 4: {t4:.2f}", "#c00", i0=SW[3])],
marks=[Mark(6, "swing low 1", "#c00", "below", dy=14),
Mark(14, "swing low 2", "#c00", "below", dy=14),
Mark(22, "swing low 3", "#c00", "below", dy=14),
Mark(29, "swing low 4", "#c00", "below", dy=14)],
mas=[MA(20, "#b06000", dash="4 3")],
scale=7.0, gap=17, body_w=9, left=52, width=700, top=64, vol_h=70,
vol_label="volum",
title="Pasul 5, trail pe swing low — weekly (decizia a fost pe monthly)",
caption="Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Stopul urcă doar la un swing low "
"mai sus; nu coboară niciodată."), "pasul5_trail")
caption="Fiecare linie de trail pornește de la swing low-ul care o "
"declanșează; stopul nu coboară niciodată."), "pasul5_trail")
# ------------------------------------- 9. când nu merge (Tesla, 217.02/214.25)
T_CL = ([320.00, 312.00, 304.00, 298.00] # 0-3
@@ -358,25 +416,31 @@ T_CL = ([320.00, 312.00, 304.00, 298.00] # 0-3
+ [232.00] # 12 buy hammer
+ [228.00, 222.00, 216.00] # 13-15 scoate stopul
+ [225.00] # 16 al doilea semnal
+ [240.00, 252.00, 262.00, 272.00, 282.00, 290.00, 298.00] # 17-23
+ [295.00, 302.00]) # 24-25
+ [240.00, 252.00, 262.00, 272.00, 282.00, 290.00, 298.00]) # 17-23
T_WK = ([(3.00, 3.00)] * 12 + [(2.00, 12.98)]
+ [(2.00, 2.00), (2.00, 2.00), (1.00, 1.75)]
+ [(2.00, 2.00)] * 10)
T_VL = vols(26, 46, 12, i12=72, i15=78, i16=84, i17=88, i18=80)
+ [(2.00, 2.00)] * 8)
T_VL = vols(24, 46, 12, i12=72, i15=78, i16=84, i17=88, i18=80)
TC = from_closes(T_CL, wicks=T_WK, vols=T_VL, start=326.00)
assert lo(TC, 12, 12) == 217.02, f"low-ul hammer-ului trebuie 217.02, e {lo(TC, 12, 12)}"
assert lo(TC, 13, 15) == 214.25, f"minimul următor trebuie 214.25, e {lo(TC, 13, 15)}"
assert 214.25 < 217.02, "al doilea minim e sub low-ul hammer-ului"
assert len(TC[17:24]) == 7, "urcarea rostită e de 7 săptămâni"
assert len(TC) == 24, "după al doilea semnal se desenează exact cele 7 bare rostite"
assert all(TC[i].c < TC[i + 1].c for i in range(17, 23)), \
"cele 7 bare etichetate ca urcare trebuie să urce toate"
deco(Chart(
candles=TC,
levels=[Level(214.25, "minimul de după: 214.25", "#c00")],
levels=[Level(217.02, "low-ul hammer-ului: 217.02", "#b06000",
label_at="left"),
# cele două minime sunt la 2.77 dolari: eticheta celui de jos
# trece sub propria linie, altfel o taie linia de deasupra
Level(214.25, "minimul de după: 214.25", "#c00", label_dy=18)],
marks=[Mark(12, "buy hammer — primul semnal", "#b06000", dy=-10),
Mark(17, "al doilea semnal, acesta merge", "#188a3e", dy=-10),
Mark(23, "7 săptămâni de urcare", "#188a3e", dy=-10)],
arrows=[Arrow(12, "low-ul hammer-ului: 217.02;\nstopul pus sub el a fost luat",
price=217.02, where="left", color="#b06000", dx=-10, dy=-26)],
arrows=[Arrow(15, "stopul pus sub 217.02\na fost luat aici",
price=214.25, where="below", color="#c00", dy=4)],
mas=[MA(20, "#b06000", dash="4 3", text="SMA-20")],
scale=2.6, gap=19, body_w=10, left=58, width=700, vol_h=70,
vol_label="volum", title="Când nu merge — Tesla weekly",
@@ -419,7 +483,7 @@ SVG["flux"] = """<svg viewBox="0 0 700 300" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" s
<text x="32" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">1. Scanner, pe candelă închisă</text>
<text x="32" y="86" fill="#333">doar DOJI, nu buy doji</text>
<rect x="250" y="44" width="200" height="56" fill="#eef4ff" stroke="#1a5fb4"/>
<text x="262" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">2. Lista, 3-400 de simboluri</text>
<text x="262" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">2. Lista, 200-300 de simboluri</text>
<text x="262" y="86" fill="#333">ținută 4 luni, într-un excel</text>
<rect x="480" y="44" width="200" height="56" fill="#eef4ff" stroke="#1a5fb4"/>
<text x="492" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">3. Radar screen</text>

82
gen/strategia_8_dhrt.py
View File

@@ -134,7 +134,11 @@ SL = round(CAP + H / 3, 2) # 1/3 de la cap: marginea de sus a t
E = CDS[32].c # intrarea, la close-ul candelei de breakout
R = round(E - SL, 2)
TP1 = round(E + R, 2)
GAT = round((hi(CDS, 12, 12) + hi(CDS, 24, 24)) / 2, 2) # media celor două vârfuri
# „măsoară din interiorul gâtului pe aici, iau un average" (`05_7_...txt:1304`):
# nivelul se ia din interiorul gâtului, NU de la cele mai de sus vârfuri. Pe
# desen vârfurile sunt mai sus (barele 13 și 25 ating 63.30), de aceea eticheta
# nu are voie să spună „media celor două vârfuri".
GAT = round((hi(CDS, 12, 12) + hi(CDS, 24, 24)) / 2, 2)
H_HS = round(GAT - CAP, 2)
TP2 = round(GAT + H_HS, 2)
@@ -151,6 +155,10 @@ assert hi(CDS, 38, 42) >= TP1 > TP2, \
assert lo(CDS, 13, 18) < lo(CDS, 6, 9) and lo(CDS, 13, 18) < lo(CDS, 25, 31), \
"capul trebuie să fie mai jos decât ambii umeri"
assert VL[32] > max(VL[25:32]), "candela de breakout nu are volumul cel mai mare"
# regresia de prins: eticheta gâtului spune „din interiorul gâtului, nu de la
# vârfuri", deci nivelul trebuie să stea strict sub cel mai de sus vârf al zonei
assert GAT < max(hi(CDS, 10, 13), hi(CDS, 24, 25)), \
f"gâtul {GAT} nu e sub vârfurile zonei: eticheta ar minți"
print(f"construit: cap {CAP} umeri {UMS}/{UMD} H {H} SL {SL} intrare {E}"
f" R {R} TP1 {TP1} gât {GAT} (h {H_HS}) TP2 {TP2}")
@@ -167,7 +175,7 @@ deco(Chart(
Mark(17, "capul", "#6a3d9a", "below", dy=16),
Mark(31, "doji", "#b06000", "below", dy=8),
Mark(32, "buy doji = trigger", "#188a3e", dy=-40),
Mark(34, "retest", "#b06000", "below", dy=22),
Mark(34, "pullback la nivelul de breakout", "#b06000", "below", dy=22),
Mark(41, "apoi trail", "#1a5fb4", dy=-8)],
zones=[Zone(25, 31, "umărul drept", "#188a3e")],
mas=[MA(20, "#b06000", dash="4 3")],
@@ -301,28 +309,52 @@ X_CL = ([55.00, 56.50, 58.00, 59.50, 61.00, 62.20, 63.00]
+ [64.40] # 18 breakout, dar fără volum
+ [62.00, 60.00, 57.50, 55.00]) # 19-22 breakdown
X_WK = T_WK
X_VL = vols(23, 44, 10, i4=78, i8=52, i9=48, i10=40, i11=38, i12=34, i13=32,
i14=30, i15=28, i16=26, i17=24, i18=36, i19=54, i20=66, i21=74)
# Regula de „nu intra" din sursă e despre o histogramă CU SEMN care cade sub
# swing low-ul ei („histograma asta cade sub swing low-ul de aici […] iar prețul
# încă nu e acolo"), nu despre bare brute pornite de la o bază: pe bare
# nesemnate „minime tot mai joase" nu înseamnă nimic vizual. De aceea panoul de
# jos al acestei diagrame e desenat în jurul unui zero (`vol_zero`), cu trei
# minime tot mai joase, iar bara candelei de breakout fals e mică și sub zero.
ZERO = 50.0
X_VL = [60.0, 64.0, 68.0, 74.0, 80.0, 72.0, 66.0, # 0-6 urcarea
56.0, 50.0, 42.0, # 7-9 minimul 1
48.0, 46.0, 38.0, # 10-12 minimul 2
44.0, 42.0, 34.0, 40.0, # 13-16 minimul 3
36.0, # 17 doji
44.0, # 18 breakout fals
30.0, 24.0, 20.0, 16.0] # 19-22 breakdown
XC = from_closes(X_CL, wicks=X_WK, vols=X_VL, start=54.00)
assert abs(XC[17].c - XC[17].o) <= 0.15 * (XC[17].h - XC[17].l), "bara 17 nu e doji"
assert XC[18].c > hi(XC, 7, 17), "breakout-ul de preț există și aici"
assert X_VL[18] < X_VL[4], "volumul de breakout NU trebuie să treacă swing high-ul"
assert X_VL[17] == min(X_VL), "volumul minim trebuie să cadă pe doji"
assert X_VL[18] < ZERO, \
"pe candela de breakout histograma trebuie să fie deja sub zero"
_SW = (9, 12, 15)
for _i in _SW:
assert X_VL[_i - 1] > X_VL[_i] < X_VL[_i + 1], \
f"bara {_i} nu e un minim local al histogramei"
assert X_VL[_i] < ZERO, f"minimul de la bara {_i} trebuie să fie sub zero"
assert X_VL[_SW[0]] > X_VL[_SW[1]] > X_VL[_SW[2]], \
f"minimele histogramei nu coboară: {[X_VL[i] for i in _SW]}"
assert XC[22].c < lo(XC, 7, 17), "după breakout-ul fals prețul rupe consolidarea"
deco(Chart(
candles=XC,
levels=[Level(lo(XC, 7, 17), f"baza {lo(XC, 7, 17):.2f}", "#c00",
label_at="left")],
marks=[Mark(17, "doji", "#b06000", "below", dy=26),
Mark(18, "închide peste consolidare, dar volumul e praf", "#c00", dy=-10),
Mark(12, "volumul face minime tot mai joase", "#c00", "below", dy=26),
Mark(18, "închide peste consolidare, dar volumul e deja sub zero",
"#c00", dy=-10),
Mark(11, "histograma rupe sub propriul swing low, de trei ori",
"#c00", "below", dy=46),
Mark(22, "breakdown", "#c00", "below", dy=14)],
zones=[Zone(7, 17, "aceeași consolidare de 11 bare", "#c00")],
mas=[MA(20, "#b06000", dash="4 3", text="SMA-20")],
scale=14.0, gap=26, body_w=11, left=58, width=700, top=46, vol_h=80,
vol_label="volum", title="Pasul 2, NU — breakout de preț fără breakout de volum",
caption="Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Prețul arată identic cu diagrama "
"de deasupra; diferă panoul de volum. False breakout."), "pas2_nu")
vol_zero=ZERO,
vol_label="histogramă de volum, cu semn (stil on balance volume)",
title="Pasul 2, NU — breakout de preț fără breakout de volum",
caption="Exemplu construit. Prețul e identic cu al diagramei de deasupra; "
"panoul de jos e histograma cu semn, nu volumul brut."), "pas2_nu")
# ================================================== 6. pasul 3 — stopul, treimea de jos
deco(Chart(
@@ -330,7 +362,7 @@ deco(Chart(
levels=[Level(UMD, f"umăr drept {UMD:.2f}", "#6a3d9a"),
Level(CAP, f"cap {CAP:.2f} — baza lui H", "#6a3d9a",
label_at="left"),
Level(SL, f"SL minim {SL:.2f} = cap + H/3", "#c00"),
Level(SL, f"SL cel mai sus permis: {SL:.2f} = cap + H/3", "#c00"),
Level(E, f"intrare {E:.2f}; distanța până la SL e R", "#188a3e",
label_at="left")],
marks=[Mark(12, "capul", "#6a3d9a", "below", dy=16),
@@ -344,11 +376,13 @@ deco(Chart(
# ========================================================= 7. pasul 4 — cele două ținte
deco(Chart(
candles=CDS[18:],
levels=[Level(SL, f"SL {SL:.2f}", "#c00", label_at="left"),
levels=[Level(CAP, f"capul {CAP:.2f} = baza înălțimii HS", "#6a3d9a"),
Level(SL, f"SL {SL:.2f}", "#c00", label_at="left"),
Level(E, f"intrare {E:.2f}", "#188a3e", label_at="left"),
Level(GAT, f"linia gâtului {GAT:.2f}, media celor două vârfuri",
"#6a3d9a", label_at="left"),
Level(TP2, f"TP2 {TP2:.2f} = gât + înălțimea HS", "#1a5fb4",
Level(GAT, f"linia gâtului {GAT:.2f}, din interiorul gâtului "
f"(nu de la vârfuri)", "#6a3d9a", label_at="left"),
Level(TP2, f"TP2 {TP2:.2f} = gât + înălțimea HS "
f"({GAT:.2f} − {CAP:.2f} = {H_HS:.2f})", "#1a5fb4",
label_at="left"),
Level(TP1, f"TP1 {TP1:.2f} = intrare + R", "#1a5fb4",
label_at="left")],
@@ -369,7 +403,9 @@ Y_CL = ([50.00, 51.20, 52.40, 53.00, 52.20, 53.40, 52.60, 53.20,
Y_WK = ([(0.30, 0.30)] * 10 + [(0.20, 0.20)]
+ [(0.30, 0.30), (0.30, 0.30), (0.30, 0.30)]
+ [(0.60, 0.50)] + [(0.30, 0.30)] * 4)
Y_VL = vols(19, 44, 10, i10=96, i11=52, i12=48, i13=46, i14=56, i15=88, i16=82)
# barele de retest trebuie să fie mai mici decât ale consolidării: legenda
# spune „volum mic pe retest, mare pe repornire"
Y_VL = vols(19, 44, 10, i10=96, i11=30, i12=26, i13=24, i14=28, i15=88, i16=82)
YC = from_closes(Y_CL, wicks=Y_WK, vols=Y_VL, start=49.00)
C_HI, C_LO = hi(YC, 0, 9), lo(YC, 0, 9)
JUM = round((C_HI + C_LO) / 2, 2)
@@ -377,14 +413,22 @@ assert YC[10].c > C_HI, "bara 10 trebuie să facă breakout peste consolidare"
assert JUM < lo(YC, 11, 14) < C_HI, \
"retestul trebuie să intre în consolidare, dar să se oprească peste jumătate"
assert YC[18].c > YC[10].c, "după retest prețul trebuie să plece mai sus"
assert max(Y_VL[11:15]) < min(Y_VL[0:10]), \
"barele de retest trebuie să fie sub toate barele consolidării"
assert Y_VL[15] > max(Y_VL[0:15]) * 0.9, "repornirea trebuie să vină cu volum"
# dreptunghiul consolidării e ancorat exact de cele două cifre din etichete,
# fără cei 8 px de padding impliciți: altfel capacul nu cade pe 53.70
assert JUM == round((C_HI + C_LO) / 2, 2), "jumătatea nu e a intervalului declarat"
deco(Chart(
candles=YC,
levels=[Level(C_HI, f"vârful consolidării {C_HI:.2f} = locul crimei", "#6a3d9a"),
Level(JUM, f"jumătatea consolidării {JUM:.2f}", "#b06000")],
Level(JUM, f"jumătatea consolidării {JUM:.2f} "
f"= ({C_HI:.2f} + {C_LO:.2f}) / 2", "#b06000"),
Level(C_LO, f"baza consolidării {C_LO:.2f}", "#6a3d9a")],
marks=[Mark(10, "breakout", "#188a3e", dy=-10),
Mark(13, "retest, se oprește peste jumătate", "#188a3e", "below", dy=20),
Mark(14, "doji aici: a doua intrare", "#188a3e", "below", dy=38)],
zones=[Zone(0, 9, "consolidarea", "#6a3d9a")],
zones=[Zone(0, 9, "consolidarea", "#6a3d9a", p_top=C_HI, p_bot=C_LO)],
scale=22.0, gap=30, body_w=12, left=58, width=700, top=46, vol_h=70,
vol_label="volum", title="Retestul, DA — se oprește în jumătatea de sus",
caption="Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Volum mic pe retest, mare pe "
@@ -412,7 +456,7 @@ deco(Chart(
marks=[Mark(10, "același breakout", "#188a3e", dy=-10),
Mark(13, "retestul trece sub jumătate", "#c00", "below", dy=52),
Mark(17, "volum în creștere pe coborâre", "#c00", "below", dy=16)],
zones=[Zone(0, 9, "aceeași consolidare", "#6a3d9a")],
zones=[Zone(0, 9, "aceeași consolidare", "#6a3d9a", p_top=C_HI, p_bot=C_LO)],
scale=15.0, gap=30, body_w=12, left=58, width=700, top=46, vol_h=70,
vol_label="volum", title="Retestul, NU — trece sub jumătate și rupe baza",
caption="Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Același breakout; diferă cât de "

693
summaries/06_MODUL_5/04_strategia_7_micis.html
View File

@@ -38,7 +38,8 @@
monthly</strong>, după un downtrend de 5-8 candele, de preferință dintr-un pivot sau
suport <strong>quarterly</strong>. Intri în <strong>trei tranșe</strong> cu limit order (una la close-ul
candelei de trigger, două mai jos, în pullback), stopul stă la <strong>2/3 din
înălțimea doji-ului</strong>, prima țintă e la <strong>distanța stopului</strong> (1R), restul
înălțimea doji-ului</strong>, prima țintă e la <strong>distanța stopului</strong> (1R), a doua e
același 1R recalculat pe <strong>prețul mediu</strong> după ce se umplu tranșele, iar restul
poziției merge pe <strong>trail după swing low-uri</strong>. E <strong>doar long</strong> — cursul spune
explicit să nu faci short cu ea. Ținta vine în <strong>5-10 perioade</strong>: 5-10
săptămâni dacă ai intrat pe weekly, 5-10 luni dacă ai intrat pe monthly.</p>
@@ -47,14 +48,18 @@ pentru că vine de la […] instituțional […] vine de la corecție […] I-ul
vine de la investiții și S-ul de la swing" — autorul însuși ezită pe litere, și
spune „nici mai știu exact de ce am numit-o" așa.</p>
<p>Avertismentul pe care îl repetă toată lecția: <strong>nu merg toate</strong>. Pe weekly și
monthly stopurile sunt uriașe în procente (la NVDA, 56% distanță), iar un semnal
monthly stopurile sunt uriașe în procente (pe NVDA rostește 56%, deși cifra nu
se verifică pe nivelurile pe care le dă — vezi pasul 3), iar un semnal
ratat urmat de al doilea care merge e situația normală, nu excepția.</p>
<h2 id="pentru-cine-e-si-pentru-cine-nu">Pentru cine e și pentru cine nu</h2>
<p>E strategie de <strong>swing trading pe perioadă lungă și de investiție</strong> în companii
individuale. Nu se poate face day trading sau scalping cu ea, și nu merge pe
conturi de prop cu reguli de drawdown zilnic: dacă ai intrat pe weekly stai
minim 3 săptămâni, iar dacă ai intrat pe monthly „poți să stai și 2 ani, 3 ani
în tranzacție". Cursul e categoric: „dacă vrei să dai turnuri în trei zile,
câteva săptămâni — fraza-sursă e neinteligibilă aici („3 din păie de stat"),
deci „minim 3 săptămâni" e lectura mea, sprijinită de exemplul de dinainte, cu
„16% în una, două, trei, patru, cinci săptămâni" —, iar dacă ai intrat pe
monthly „poți să stai și 2 ani, 3 ani în tranzacție". Partea cu monthly e
rostită limpede; cea cu weekly nu. Cursul e categoric: „dacă vrei să dai turnuri în trei zile,
strategia asta nu merge".</p>
<p>Ce nu-ți trebuie: analiză fundamentală. „Nu e nevoie să știi o iotă de
fundamental […] doar tehnic poți tranzacționa cu strategia asta." Dacă știi
@@ -67,9 +72,12 @@ să poți citi pașii fără să te oprești.</p>
minus low) și fitile în ambele părți: deschiderea și închiderea sunt
aproximativ la același preț. Pe weekly sau monthly, o astfel de candelă poate
avea 28 de dolari înălțime, cum are cea de la NVDA mai jos.</li>
<li><strong>Buy doji</strong> — nu doji-ul în sine, ci candela <strong>următoare</strong>, care se închide
<strong>deasupra high-ului doji-ului</strong>. Doji-ul e setup-ul, închiderea peste el e
trigger-ul. „Cum să ai buy doji fără doji înainte?"</li>
<li><strong>Buy doji</strong> — nu doji-ul în sine, ci <strong>o candelă ulterioară, în cel mult 4
perioade</strong>, care se închide <strong>deasupra high-ului doji-ului</strong>. De obicei e cea
imediat următoare, dar breakout-ul mai poate veni și la a doua, a treia sau a
patra — de aceea lista de scanare se ține patru luni (vezi rutina). Doji-ul e
setup-ul, închiderea peste el e trigger-ul. „Cum să ai buy doji fără doji
înainte?"</li>
<li><strong>Buy hammer</strong> — același lucru, dar candela de dedesubt e un hammer: corp mic
sus, fitil lung în jos. Funcționează identic în strategia asta.</li>
<li><strong>Marubozu</strong> — candelă cu corp mare și fitile mici sau inexistente. Pe weekly
@@ -96,119 +104,119 @@ să poți citi pașii fără să te oprești.</p>
folosesc și la pașii 1, 2 și 4 (același doji, aceleași niveluri, ca să nu se
schimbe cifrele de la o secțiune la alta).</p>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MICIS, tot trade-ul — weekly (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="24" y="569.2" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="443.0" y="296.3" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ieși, nu aștepți</text>
<text x="24" y="675" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. R-urile sunt ale mele.</text>
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<text x="24" y="90" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MICIS, tot trade-ul — weekly (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="577.5" fill="#c00">SL 39.33 = 2/3 din doji</text>
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<text x="672" y="475.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 1/3 la close 45.00</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="505.5" fill="#188a3e">limit 1/3 la 43.33</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="520.4" fill="#188a3e">limit 1/3 la 42.50</text>
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<text x="24" y="627.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="290.0" y="621.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji</text>
<text x="307.0" y="465.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
<text x="137.0" y="188.2" fill="#888" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">consolidare</text>
<text x="341.0" y="550.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">se umplu limiturile</text>
<text x="443.0" y="354.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ieși, nu aștepți</text>
<text x="24" y="733" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. R-urile sunt ale mele.</text>
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<p>Citirea, de la stânga la dreapta: downtrend de 7 candele weekly, apoi un doji
(38.00-42.00), apoi candela de trigger care închide la 45.00, peste high-ul
@@ -231,14 +239,14 @@ mai slabă: „ideal ar fi să vină după un downtrend sau corecție majoră".<
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 1, DA — doji weekly pe pivotul quarterly</text>
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<text x="483" y="237" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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@@ -263,32 +271,32 @@ mai slabă: „ideal ar fi să vină după un downtrend sau corecție majoră".<
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@@ -498,12 +506,12 @@ lași, sau intri <strong>manual în premarket / after hours</strong>.</p>
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@@ -771,7 +779,7 @@ de toleranța voastră la risc și de experiență":</p>
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@@ -831,14 +839,22 @@ de toleranța voastră la risc și de experiență":</p>
</svg></p>
<p>Exemplul e al lui, pe NVDA monthly. Doji-ul are <strong>28 de dolari</strong> înălțime și
low-ul la <strong>86</strong>. O treime deasupra low-ului e, „aproximativ din ochi, pe la
<strong>94</strong>. Versus normal trebuia să-l ai la <strong>86</strong>" — adică varianta 2/3 taie
jumătate din risc față de stopul sub low. (Strict calculat, o treime din 28
<strong>94</strong>. Versus normal trebuia să-l ai la <strong>86</strong>" — adică, măsurat de la
close-ul de trigger de 133, stopul la 94 e la <strong>29,3%</strong> distanță, iar cel de
sub low, la 86, la <strong>35,3%</strong>. Varianta 2/3 scade riscul cu o treime din
înălțimea doji-ului, nu cu jumătate. (Strict calculat, o treime din 28
deasupra lui 86 dă 95.33; el citește 94 pe grafic. Diferența e a lui, nu o
corectez — pe monthly, un dolar nu schimbă decizia.)</p>
<p>Și acum partea pe care o spune direct, fără să o îmbrace: stopul ăsta e <strong>uriaș
în procente</strong>. Cu intrarea la <strong>133</strong> și stopul sub low-ul doji-ului, „ce stop
loss trebuie să ai tu aici cu prima poziție 1/3? […] chiloții la <strong>56%</strong> asumare
pierdere? Bă, 56%." Pe Dell spune „stop loss-ul inițial, 68%", iar pe MLM
în procente</strong>: „ce stop loss trebuie să ai tu aici cu prima poziție 1/3? […]
chiloții la <strong>56%</strong> asumare pierdere? Bă, 56%."</p>
<p>Atenție la cifra asta, pentru că <strong>nu se verifică</strong> pe nivelurile pe care le
dă el. 56% e rostit separat, fără să fie legat de un preț de intrare; de la
close-ul de trigger de 133 până la 86 sunt 35,3%, nu 56%. Cel mai aproape de
56% ajungi socotind distanța ca procent din nivelul stopului (47/86 = 54,6%) —
probabil de acolo îi vine cifra, dar e o speculație a mea. Reține ordinul de
mărime („stop uriaș, de câteva zeci de procente"), nu numărul. Pe Dell spune
că stop loss-ul inițial e „68 la 100" [sic], iar pe MLM
măsoară „21%" pe varianta cu 4 candele în spate și „în loc de 21 aveai un 17" pe
varianta de 2/3. Astea nu sunt stopuri de day trading; sunt stopuri
de poziție de investiție, și de-aia pasul 6 (mărimea poziției) nu e opțional.</p>
@@ -855,72 +871,82 @@ TP1 ăsta este egal cu TP2 inițial. Pentru că dacă tu intri la 1/3, exact câ
s-a terminat candela, TP1 e TP2. Dar pe măsură ce intri cu poziția a doua și
poziția a treia tu vei face un average." Deci TP2 e <strong>aceeași regulă de 1R, dar
recalculată pe prețul mediu</strong> după ce s-au umplut tranșele 2 și 3. La prima
tranșă cele două coincid; se despart abia când mediezi.</p>
tranșă cele două coincid; se despart abia când mediezi. <strong>Partea cu „se
despart" e lectura mea</strong> — vezi rezerva de după diagramă.</p>
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<text x="24" y="70" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 4, cele două ținte — weekly (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="30" y="273.8" fill="#c00">SL 39.33</text>
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<text x="672" y="200.1" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 1 la 45.00</text>
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<p>Pe exemplul construit se vede efectul, și e contraintuitiv: <strong>mediind în jos,
1R se scurtează</strong>. Prețul mediu al celor trei tranșe e 43.61, stopul 39.33, deci
1R e 4.28 și TP2 cade la 47.89 — sub TP1 de 50.67, care e 1R socotit pe prima
tranșă intrată la 45.00. Ținta vine mai repede și cu risc mai mic pe acțiune.
Cifrele astea sunt derivările mele pe exemplul construit; cursul dă regula, nu
exemplul numeric. Avertismentul lui despre asta: „o să-ți dea un average la un
<p><strong>Aici e o lectură a mea, nu o regulă rostită.</strong> Fraza-sursă e neinteligibilă
exact în punctul care contează: ea spune doar că la prima tranșă TP1 = TP2 și că
pe măsură ce intri cu tranșele 2 și 3 „o să-ți dea un average" — dar <strong>nu spune
care dintre cele două ținte se recalculează pe medie</strong>. Lectura pe care o
folosesc în document: TP2 e 1R socotit pe prețul mediu, deci cade sub TP1.
Varianta alternativă, cel puțin la fel de plauzibilă, e că se recalculează și
ținta și stopul pe prețul mediu („vezi cum calculezi TP-ul <strong>și</strong> SL-ul"), caz
în care TP1 și TP2 rămân identice și după mediere, iar „TP2 sub TP1" nu se mai
produce. Diagramele de mai sus desenează prima variantă, marcată ca lectură.</p>
<p>Pe lectura asta, pe exemplul construit, efectul e contraintuitiv: <strong>mediind în
jos, 1R se scurtează</strong>. Prețul mediu al celor trei tranșe e 43.61, stopul 39.33,
deci 1R e 4.28 și TP2 cade la 47.89 — sub TP1 de 50.67, care e 1R socotit pe
prima tranșă intrată la 45.00. Ținta vine mai repede și cu risc mai mic pe
acțiune. Cifrele astea sunt derivările mele pe exemplul construit; cursul dă
regula, nu exemplul numeric. Avertismentul lui despre asta: „o să-ți dea un average la un
moment dat […] vezi cum calculezi TP-ul și SL-ul, că o să-ți dea o medie" — cu
alte cuvinte, recalculează, nu lăsa ordinele vechi.</p>
<p>Cât aștepți: ținta vine „între 5 și 10 perioade. Dacă sunt pe weekly, ar trebui
@@ -940,16 +966,15 @@ trebuit să mai pun un slash."</p>
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<text x="24" y="78" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 5, trail pe swing low — weekly (decizia a fost pe monthly)</text>
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<text x="30" y="214.4" fill="#c00">trail 1: 48.20</text>
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<text x="30" y="175.2" fill="#c00">trail 2: 53.80</text>
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<text x="672" y="214.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 1: 48.20</text>
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<text x="672" y="175.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 2: 53.80</text>
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<text x="672" y="133.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 3: 59.80</text>
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<text x="672" y="95.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 4: 65.20</text>
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<text x="551" y="132" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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@@ -1042,9 +1067,11 @@ trebuit să mai pun un slash."</p>
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<rect x="540.5" y="285.6" width="9" height="70.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<text x="24" y="279.6" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="154.0" y="254.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low</text>
<text x="290.0" y="150.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low mai sus → muți stopul</text>
<text x="24" y="386" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Stopul urcă doar la un swing low mai sus; nu coboară niciodată.</text>
<text x="154.0" y="254.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 1</text>
<text x="290.0" y="215.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 2</text>
<text x="426.0" y="173.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 3</text>
<text x="545.0" y="135.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 4</text>
<text x="24" y="386" fill="#555">Fiecare linie de trail pornește de la swing low-ul care o declanșează; stopul nu coboară niciodată.</text>
</svg></p>
<p>De ce un timeframe mai mic și nu același: pe weekly, între două swing low-uri
pot trece șase săptămâni — „ăsta era ultimul trail și următorul trail s-a format
@@ -1052,8 +1079,8 @@ peste […] șase săptămâni de la trail-ul ăsta". Un trail atât de larg te
foarte departe cu poziția („te duci cu el țeavă"), dar dacă l-ai pune pe
monthly, după o decizie luată pe monthly, n-ai muta stopul decât o dată pe
trimestru.</p>
<p>Cât stai, în practică, din exemplele lui: 3 săptămâni minim dacă ai intrat pe
weekly; pe Johnson &amp; Johnson a trebuit să stai „1, 2, 3 … 12 săptămâni, și abia
<p>Cât stai, în practică, din exemplele lui: câteva săptămâni dacă ai intrat pe
weekly (minimul de 3 e lectura mea, vezi mai sus); pe Johnson &amp; Johnson a trebuit să stai „1, 2, 3 … 12 săptămâni, și abia
în a 13-a vedeai profitul"; pe Alibaba, 14 săptămâni. Pe monthly, 2-3 ani.</p>
<h2 id="pasul-6-marimea-pozitiei-al-doilea-p">Pasul 6 — Mărimea poziției (al doilea P)</h2>
<p><strong>Maxim 1-2-3% din cont</strong>, și „când zic mărimea totală a poziției, mă refer la
@@ -1065,9 +1092,10 @@ pe prima tranșă. „Când calculezi stop loss-ul, să nu reprezinte 2% din tot
real rămâne o treime din cel calculat — e în favoarea ta, nu invers. Invers,
dacă dimensionezi pe prima treime și se umplu toate, ai de trei ori riscul pe
care l-ai aprobat.</p>
<p>Cu un stop de 56% ca la NVDA, aritmetica e brutală și merită scrisă o dată:
dacă accepți să pierzi 2% din cont și stopul e la 56% distanță, poziția nu poate
depăși ~3,5% din cont. Asta e derivarea mea, nu o cifră din curs — dar e
<p>Cu un stop de ordinul celui de pe NVDA, aritmetica e brutală și merită scrisă o
dată: dacă accepți să pierzi 2% din cont și stopul e la 35% distanță, poziția nu
poate depăși ~5,7% din cont; la 56%, cât rostește el, ~3,5%. Astea sunt
derivările mele, nu cifre din curs — dar sunt
motivul pentru care pasul 6 nu e o formalitate pe timeframe-urile astea.</p>
<h2 id="rutina-cum-le-gasesti-inainte-sa-se-inchida-candela">Rutina: cum le găsești înainte să se închidă candela</h2>
<p>Partea cea mai practică a lecției, și cea pe care o repetă la final de două ori.
@@ -1082,7 +1110,7 @@ citește candela <strong>în formare</strong>.</p>
<text x="32" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">1. Scanner, pe candelă închisă</text>
<text x="32" y="86" fill="#333">doar DOJI, nu buy doji</text>
<rect x="250" y="44" width="200" height="56" fill="#eef4ff" stroke="#1a5fb4"/>
<text x="262" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">2. Lista, 3-400 de simboluri</text>
<text x="262" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">2. Lista, 200-300 de simboluri</text>
<text x="262" y="86" fill="#333">ținută 4 luni, într-un excel</text>
<rect x="480" y="44" width="200" height="56" fill="#eef4ff" stroke="#1a5fb4"/>
<text x="492" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">3. Radar screen</text>
@@ -1135,12 +1163,14 @@ volum pozitiv).</p>
<p>Exemplul cu cifre e Tesla, și e instructiv pentru că arată exact ce face
alegerea stopului:</p>
<!--SVG:nu_merge-->
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 493" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 563" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Când nu merge — Tesla weekly</text>
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<text x="672" y="348.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">minimul de după: 214.25</text>
<polyline points="419.0,238.1 438.0,244.4 457.0,248.3 476.0,250.1 495.0,250.1 514.0,249.4 533.0,246.8" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="539" y="241" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="347.1" x2="686" y2="347.1" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30.0" y="341.1" fill="#b06000">low-ul hammer-ului: 217.02</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="354.4" x2="686" y2="354.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="366.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">minimul de după: 214.25</text>
<polyline points="419.0,238.1 438.0,244.4 457.0,248.3 476.0,250.1 495.0,250.1" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="501" y="244" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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@@ -1189,46 +1219,40 @@ alegerea stopului:</p>
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<rect x="528.0" y="413.6" width="10" height="37.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<text x="24" y="375.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<rect x="53.0" y="489.5" width="10" height="31.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="224.0" y="487.1" width="10" height="34.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="490.0" y="485.6" width="10" height="35.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<text x="24" y="445.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="286.0" y="283.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy hammer — primul semnal</text>
<text x="381.0" y="262.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">al doilea semnal, acesta merge</text>
<text x="495.0" y="111.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">7 săptămâni de urcare</text>
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<text x="233.0" y="318.1" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">low-ul hammer-ului: 217.02;</text>
<text x="233.0" y="332.1" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">stopul pus sub el a fost luat</text>
<text x="24" y="481" fill="#555">Ale lui: 217.02, 214.25 și cele 7 săptămâni de după al doilea semnal; restul barelor e al meu.</text>
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<text x="343.0" y="402.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">stopul pus sub 217.02</text>
<text x="343.0" y="416.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">a fost luat aici</text>
<text x="24" y="551" fill="#555">Ale lui: 217.02, 214.25 și cele 7 săptămâni de după al doilea semnal; restul barelor e al meu.</text>
</svg></p>
<p>„Uite, buy hammer-ul ăsta n-a mers, de exemplu. Acum depinde unde aveai stop
loss-ul. Dacă low-ul ăsta de aici e <strong>217.02</strong>, low-ul ăsta de aici este
@@ -1308,7 +1332,10 @@ rutină și diagrama de divergență (forma lor; cifrele de volum sunt citirile
lui).</p>
<p><strong>Ce rămâne neclar în sursă</strong>, fără să inventez o rezolvare: eticheta TP2 e
rostită neinteligibil („bit, bich, TPU normal"), iar lămurirea o dă doar
indirect, prin explicația cu media; și litera I din MICIS are două justificări
indirect, prin explicația cu media — nu spune care dintre ținte se recalculează
pe prețul mediu, deci „TP2 sub TP1" rămâne lectura mea, marcată ca atare pe
diagrame; cifra de 56% nu se verifică pe nivelurile rostite în același exemplu;
fraza despre cât stai pe weekly („3 din păie de stat") e neinteligibilă; și litera I din MICIS are două justificări
în același paragraf (instituțional și investiții), autorul recunoscând că nu
mai ține minte.</p>
<h2 id="referinte">Referințe</h2>
@@ -1318,6 +1345,6 @@ mai ține minte.</p>
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/scaling.asp">Investopedia — Scaling In and Out</a> — intrarea în tranșe și efectul pe prețul mediu, mecanismul din pasul 2.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trailingstop.asp">Investopedia — Trailing Stop</a> — trail-ul pe swing low din pasul 5.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/what-are-pivot-points-and-how-do-you-use-them-in-trading-230302">IG — Pivot Points</a> — cum se calculează pivoții pe perioadă (de unde vin PPQ și PPM).</li>
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@@ -5,7 +5,8 @@ MICIS cumpără un **buy doji** sau un **buy hammer** apărut pe **weekly sau
monthly**, după un downtrend de 5-8 candele, de preferință dintr-un pivot sau
suport **quarterly**. Intri în **trei tranșe** cu limit order (una la close-ul
candelei de trigger, două mai jos, în pullback), stopul stă la **2/3 din
înălțimea doji-ului**, prima țintă e la **distanța stopului** (1R), restul
înălțimea doji-ului**, prima țintă e la **distanța stopului** (1R), a doua e
același 1R recalculat pe **prețul mediu** după ce se umplu tranșele, iar restul
poziției merge pe **trail după swing low-uri**. E **doar long** — cursul spune
explicit să nu faci short cu ea. Ținta vine în **5-10 perioade**: 5-10
săptămâni dacă ai intrat pe weekly, 5-10 luni dacă ai intrat pe monthly.
@@ -16,15 +17,19 @@ vine de la investiții și S-ul de la swing" — autorul însuși ezită pe lite
spune „nici mai știu exact de ce am numit-o" așa.
Avertismentul pe care îl repetă toată lecția: **nu merg toate**. Pe weekly și
monthly stopurile sunt uriașe în procente (la NVDA, 56% distanță), iar un semnal
monthly stopurile sunt uriașe în procente (pe NVDA rostește 56%, deși cifra nu
se verifică pe nivelurile pe care le dă — vezi pasul 3), iar un semnal
ratat urmat de al doilea care merge e situația normală, nu excepția.
## Pentru cine e și pentru cine nu
E strategie de **swing trading pe perioadă lungă și de investiție** în companii
individuale. Nu se poate face day trading sau scalping cu ea, și nu merge pe
conturi de prop cu reguli de drawdown zilnic: dacă ai intrat pe weekly stai
minim 3 săptămâni, iar dacă ai intrat pe monthly „poți să stai și 2 ani, 3 ani
în tranzacție". Cursul e categoric: „dacă vrei să dai turnuri în trei zile,
câteva săptămâni — fraza-sursă e neinteligibilă aici („3 din păie de stat"),
deci „minim 3 săptămâni" e lectura mea, sprijinită de exemplul de dinainte, cu
„16% în una, două, trei, patru, cinci săptămâni" —, iar dacă ai intrat pe
monthly „poți să stai și 2 ani, 3 ani în tranzacție". Partea cu monthly e
rostită limpede; cea cu weekly nu. Cursul e categoric: „dacă vrei să dai turnuri în trei zile,
strategia asta nu merge".
Ce nu-ți trebuie: analiză fundamentală. „Nu e nevoie să știi o iotă de
@@ -39,9 +44,12 @@ să poți citi pașii fără să te oprești.
minus low) și fitile în ambele părți: deschiderea și închiderea sunt
aproximativ la același preț. Pe weekly sau monthly, o astfel de candelă poate
avea 28 de dolari înălțime, cum are cea de la NVDA mai jos.
- **Buy doji** — nu doji-ul în sine, ci candela **următoare**, care se închide
**deasupra high-ului doji-ului**. Doji-ul e setup-ul, închiderea peste el e
trigger-ul. „Cum să ai buy doji fără doji înainte?"
- **Buy doji** — nu doji-ul în sine, ci **o candelă ulterioară, în cel mult 4
perioade**, care se închide **deasupra high-ului doji-ului**. De obicei e cea
imediat următoare, dar breakout-ul mai poate veni și la a doua, a treia sau a
patra — de aceea lista de scanare se ține patru luni (vezi rutina). Doji-ul e
setup-ul, închiderea peste el e trigger-ul. „Cum să ai buy doji fără doji
înainte?"
- **Buy hammer** — același lucru, dar candela de dedesubt e un hammer: corp mic
sus, fitil lung în jos. Funcționează identic în strategia asta.
- **Marubozu** — candelă cu corp mare și fitile mici sau inexistente. Pe weekly
@@ -69,119 +77,119 @@ folosesc și la pașii 1, 2 și 4 (același doji, aceleași niveluri, ca să nu
schimbe cifrele de la o secțiune la alta).
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MICIS, tot trade-ul — weekly (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="161.5" y="241.0" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">downtrend 7 candele</text>
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<text x="297.5" y="355.7" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">fereastra de intrare</text>
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<text x="30" y="519.3" fill="#c00">SL 39.33 = 2/3 din doji</text>
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<text x="30" y="447.3" fill="#188a3e">limit 1/3 la 43.33</text>
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<text x="30" y="462.2" fill="#188a3e">limit 1/3 la 42.50</text>
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<text x="672" y="442.2" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">preț mediu 43.61</text>
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<text x="672" y="365.2" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP2 47.89</text>
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<text x="24" y="569.2" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="307.0" y="407.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
<text x="341.0" y="535.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">se umplu limiturile</text>
<text x="443.0" y="296.3" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ieși, nu aștepți</text>
<text x="24" y="675" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. R-urile sunt ale mele.</text>
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<text x="24" y="90" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MICIS, tot trade-ul — weekly (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="161.5" y="119.2" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">downtrend 7 candele</text>
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<text x="297.5" y="413.9" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">fereastra de intrare</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="577.5" fill="#c00">SL 39.33 = 2/3 din doji</text>
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<text x="672" y="475.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 1/3 la close 45.00</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="505.5" fill="#188a3e">limit 1/3 la 43.33</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="520.4" fill="#188a3e">limit 1/3 la 42.50</text>
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<text x="672" y="500.4" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">preț mediu 43.61</text>
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<text x="672" y="423.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP2 47.89 — lectura mea</text>
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<text x="672" y="373.3" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP1 50.67</text>
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<text x="24" y="627.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="307.0" y="465.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
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<text x="443.0" y="354.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ieși, nu aștepți</text>
<text x="24" y="733" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. R-urile sunt ale mele.</text>
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Citirea, de la stânga la dreapta: downtrend de 7 candele weekly, apoi un doji
@@ -209,14 +217,14 @@ mai slabă: „ideal ar fi să vină după un downtrend sau corecție majoră".
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@@ -424,39 +432,39 @@ e cam mucificat" — adică fără acumulare și fără divergență.
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<text x="24" y="336.5" fill="#555">volum</text>
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@@ -483,12 +491,12 @@ lași, sau intri **manual în premarket / after hours**.
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<text x="30.0" y="198.0" fill="#6a3d9a">limit 1/3 la 1/2 din marubozu</text>
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@@ -600,11 +608,11 @@ dublat în preț aproape" — fără să atingă nici primul nivel de 1/3.
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 2, ladder neumplut — AMD monthly</text>
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<text x="30" y="296.9" fill="#c00">limit 1/3 la 104.67 — niciodată atins</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="296.9" fill="#c00">limit 1/3 — niciodată atins</text>
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<text x="672" y="123.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">unde a ajuns: 180</text>
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@@ -722,15 +730,15 @@ Regula practică de alegere, din curs: pornești de la 4 candele în spate, și
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<text x="24" y="74" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 3, stopul — NVDA monthly</text>
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@@ -766,7 +774,7 @@ Regula practică de alegere, din curs: pornești de la 4 candele în spate, și
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@@ -827,15 +835,24 @@ Regula practică de alegere, din curs: pornești de la 4 candele în spate, și
Exemplul e al lui, pe NVDA monthly. Doji-ul are **28 de dolari** înălțime și
low-ul la **86**. O treime deasupra low-ului e, „aproximativ din ochi, pe la
**94**. Versus normal trebuia să-l ai la **86**" — adică varianta 2/3 taie
jumătate din risc față de stopul sub low. (Strict calculat, o treime din 28
**94**. Versus normal trebuia să-l ai la **86**" — adică, măsurat de la
close-ul de trigger de 133, stopul la 94 e la **29,3%** distanță, iar cel de
sub low, la 86, la **35,3%**. Varianta 2/3 scade riscul cu o treime din
înălțimea doji-ului, nu cu jumătate. (Strict calculat, o treime din 28
deasupra lui 86 dă 95.33; el citește 94 pe grafic. Diferența e a lui, nu o
corectez — pe monthly, un dolar nu schimbă decizia.)
Și acum partea pe care o spune direct, fără să o îmbrace: stopul ăsta e **uriaș
în procente**. Cu intrarea la **133** și stopul sub low-ul doji-ului, „ce stop
loss trebuie să ai tu aici cu prima poziție 1/3? […] chiloții la **56%** asumare
pierdere? Bă, 56%." Pe Dell spune „stop loss-ul inițial, 68%", iar pe MLM
în procente**: „ce stop loss trebuie să ai tu aici cu prima poziție 1/3? […]
chiloții la **56%** asumare pierdere? Bă, 56%."
Atenție la cifra asta, pentru că **nu se verifică** pe nivelurile pe care le
dă el. 56% e rostit separat, fără să fie legat de un preț de intrare; de la
close-ul de trigger de 133 până la 86 sunt 35,3%, nu 56%. Cel mai aproape de
56% ajungi socotind distanța ca procent din nivelul stopului (47/86 = 54,6%) —
probabil de acolo îi vine cifra, dar e o speculație a mea. Reține ordinul de
mărime („stop uriaș, de câteva zeci de procente"), nu numărul. Pe Dell spune
că stop loss-ul inițial e „68 la 100" [sic], iar pe MLM
măsoară „21%" pe varianta cu 4 candele în spate și „în loc de 21 aveai un 17" pe
varianta de 2/3. Astea nu sunt stopuri de day trading; sunt stopuri
de poziție de investiție, și de-aia pasul 6 (mărimea poziției) nu e opțional.
@@ -855,74 +872,85 @@ TP1 ăsta este egal cu TP2 inițial. Pentru că dacă tu intri la 1/3, exact câ
s-a terminat candela, TP1 e TP2. Dar pe măsură ce intri cu poziția a doua și
poziția a treia tu vei face un average." Deci TP2 e **aceeași regulă de 1R, dar
recalculată pe prețul mediu** după ce s-au umplut tranșele 2 și 3. La prima
tranșă cele două coincid; se despart abia când mediezi.
tranșă cele două coincid; se despart abia când mediezi. **Partea cu „se
despart" e lectura mea** — vezi rezerva de după diagramă.
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<text x="396.0" y="120.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP1 = 1R pe prima tranșă (5.67)</text>
<text x="24" y="360" fill="#555">Lectura mea: mediind în jos, TP2 vine înaintea lui TP1. Fraza-sursă e neinteligibilă aici.</text>
</svg>
Pe exemplul construit se vede efectul, și e contraintuitiv: **mediind în jos,
1R se scurtează**. Prețul mediu al celor trei tranșe e 43.61, stopul 39.33, deci
1R e 4.28 și TP2 cade la 47.89 — sub TP1 de 50.67, care e 1R socotit pe prima
tranșă intrată la 45.00. Ținta vine mai repede și cu risc mai mic pe acțiune.
Cifrele astea sunt derivările mele pe exemplul construit; cursul dă regula, nu
exemplul numeric. Avertismentul lui despre asta: „o să-ți dea un average la un
**Aici e o lectură a mea, nu o regulă rostită.** Fraza-sursă e neinteligibilă
exact în punctul care contează: ea spune doar că la prima tranșă TP1 = TP2 și că
pe măsură ce intri cu tranșele 2 și 3 „o să-ți dea un average" — dar **nu spune
care dintre cele două ținte se recalculează pe medie**. Lectura pe care o
folosesc în document: TP2 e 1R socotit pe prețul mediu, deci cade sub TP1.
Varianta alternativă, cel puțin la fel de plauzibilă, e că se recalculează și
ținta și stopul pe prețul mediu („vezi cum calculezi TP-ul **și** SL-ul"), caz
în care TP1 și TP2 rămân identice și după mediere, iar „TP2 sub TP1" nu se mai
produce. Diagramele de mai sus desenează prima variantă, marcată ca lectură.
Pe lectura asta, pe exemplul construit, efectul e contraintuitiv: **mediind în
jos, 1R se scurtează**. Prețul mediu al celor trei tranșe e 43.61, stopul 39.33,
deci 1R e 4.28 și TP2 cade la 47.89 — sub TP1 de 50.67, care e 1R socotit pe
prima tranșă intrată la 45.00. Ținta vine mai repede și cu risc mai mic pe
acțiune. Cifrele astea sunt derivările mele pe exemplul construit; cursul dă
regula, nu exemplul numeric. Avertismentul lui despre asta: „o să-ți dea un average la un
moment dat […] vezi cum calculezi TP-ul și SL-ul, că o să-ți dea o medie" — cu
alte cuvinte, recalculează, nu lăsa ordinele vechi.
@@ -947,16 +975,15 @@ Trail-ul urcă pe **swing low-uri**, adică pe higher low-uri succesive.
<!--SVG:pasul5_trail-->
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<text x="24" y="78" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 5, trail pe swing low — weekly (decizia a fost pe monthly)</text>
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<text x="30" y="214.4" fill="#c00">trail 1: 48.20</text>
<line x1="24" y1="181.2" x2="686" y2="181.2" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30" y="175.2" fill="#c00">trail 2: 53.80</text>
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<line x1="149.5" y1="220.4" x2="686" y2="220.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="214.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 1: 48.20</text>
<line x1="285.5" y1="181.2" x2="686" y2="181.2" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="175.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 2: 53.80</text>
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<text x="672" y="133.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 3: 59.80</text>
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<line x1="540.5" y1="101.4" x2="686" y2="101.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="95.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 4: 65.20</text>
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<text x="551" y="132" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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@@ -1049,9 +1076,11 @@ Trail-ul urcă pe **swing low-uri**, adică pe higher low-uri succesive.
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<text x="24" y="279.6" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="154.0" y="254.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low</text>
<text x="290.0" y="150.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low mai sus → muți stopul</text>
<text x="24" y="386" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Stopul urcă doar la un swing low mai sus; nu coboară niciodată.</text>
<text x="154.0" y="254.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 1</text>
<text x="290.0" y="215.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 2</text>
<text x="426.0" y="173.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 3</text>
<text x="545.0" y="135.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 4</text>
<text x="24" y="386" fill="#555">Fiecare linie de trail pornește de la swing low-ul care o declanșează; stopul nu coboară niciodată.</text>
</svg>
De ce un timeframe mai mic și nu același: pe weekly, între două swing low-uri
@@ -1061,8 +1090,8 @@ foarte departe cu poziția („te duci cu el țeavă"), dar dacă l-ai pune pe
monthly, după o decizie luată pe monthly, n-ai muta stopul decât o dată pe
trimestru.
Cât stai, în practică, din exemplele lui: 3 săptămâni minim dacă ai intrat pe
weekly; pe Johnson & Johnson a trebuit să stai „1, 2, 3 … 12 săptămâni, și abia
Cât stai, în practică, din exemplele lui: câteva săptămâni dacă ai intrat pe
weekly (minimul de 3 e lectura mea, vezi mai sus); pe Johnson & Johnson a trebuit să stai „1, 2, 3 … 12 săptămâni, și abia
în a 13-a vedeai profitul"; pe Alibaba, 14 săptămâni. Pe monthly, 2-3 ani.
## Pasul 6 — Mărimea poziției (al doilea P)
@@ -1077,9 +1106,10 @@ real rămâne o treime din cel calculat — e în favoarea ta, nu invers. Invers
dacă dimensionezi pe prima treime și se umplu toate, ai de trei ori riscul pe
care l-ai aprobat.
Cu un stop de 56% ca la NVDA, aritmetica e brutală și merită scrisă o dată:
dacă accepți să pierzi 2% din cont și stopul e la 56% distanță, poziția nu poate
depăși ~3,5% din cont. Asta e derivarea mea, nu o cifră din curs — dar e
Cu un stop de ordinul celui de pe NVDA, aritmetica e brutală și merită scrisă o
dată: dacă accepți să pierzi 2% din cont și stopul e la 35% distanță, poziția nu
poate depăși ~5,7% din cont; la 56%, cât rostește el, ~3,5%. Astea sunt
derivările mele, nu cifre din curs — dar sunt
motivul pentru care pasul 6 nu e o formalitate pe timeframe-urile astea.
## Rutina: cum le găsești înainte să se închidă candela
@@ -1096,7 +1126,7 @@ citește candela **în formare**.
<text x="32" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">1. Scanner, pe candelă închisă</text>
<text x="32" y="86" fill="#333">doar DOJI, nu buy doji</text>
<rect x="250" y="44" width="200" height="56" fill="#eef4ff" stroke="#1a5fb4"/>
<text x="262" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">2. Lista, 3-400 de simboluri</text>
<text x="262" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">2. Lista, 200-300 de simboluri</text>
<text x="262" y="86" fill="#333">ținută 4 luni, într-un excel</text>
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<text x="492" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">3. Radar screen</text>
@@ -1154,12 +1184,14 @@ Exemplul cu cifre e Tesla, și e instructiv pentru că arată exact ce face
alegerea stopului:
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Când nu merge — Tesla weekly</text>
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<text x="672" y="348.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">minimul de după: 214.25</text>
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<text x="539" y="241" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="341.1" fill="#b06000">low-ul hammer-ului: 217.02</text>
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<text x="672" y="366.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">minimul de după: 214.25</text>
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@@ -1208,46 +1240,40 @@ alegerea stopului:
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<rect x="528.0" y="413.6" width="10" height="37.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<text x="24" y="375.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="24" y="445.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="286.0" y="283.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy hammer — primul semnal</text>
<text x="381.0" y="262.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">al doilea semnal, acesta merge</text>
<text x="495.0" y="111.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">7 săptămâni de urcare</text>
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<text x="233.0" y="318.1" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">low-ul hammer-ului: 217.02;</text>
<text x="233.0" y="332.1" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">stopul pus sub el a fost luat</text>
<text x="24" y="481" fill="#555">Ale lui: 217.02, 214.25 și cele 7 săptămâni de după al doilea semnal; restul barelor e al meu.</text>
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<text x="343.0" y="402.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">stopul pus sub 217.02</text>
<text x="343.0" y="416.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">a fost luat aici</text>
<text x="24" y="551" fill="#555">Ale lui: 217.02, 214.25 și cele 7 săptămâni de după al doilea semnal; restul barelor e al meu.</text>
</svg>
„Uite, buy hammer-ul ăsta n-a mers, de exemplu. Acum depinde unde aveai stop
@@ -1333,7 +1359,10 @@ lui).
**Ce rămâne neclar în sursă**, fără să inventez o rezolvare: eticheta TP2 e
rostită neinteligibil („bit, bich, TPU normal"), iar lămurirea o dă doar
indirect, prin explicația cu media; și litera I din MICIS are două justificări
indirect, prin explicația cu media — nu spune care dintre ținte se recalculează
pe prețul mediu, deci „TP2 sub TP1" rămâne lectura mea, marcată ca atare pe
diagrame; cifra de 56% nu se verifică pe nivelurile rostite în același exemplu;
fraza despre cât stai pe weekly („3 din păie de stat") e neinteligibilă; și litera I din MICIS are două justificări
în același paragraf (instituțional și investiții), autorul recunoscând că nu
mai ține minte.

234
summaries/06_MODUL_5/05_strategia_8_dhrt.html
View File

@@ -108,15 +108,15 @@ schimbe cifrele de la o secțiune la alta.</p>
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">DHRT, tot trade-ul — HS răsturnat (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="30" y="323.0" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="323.0" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
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<text x="30" y="104.9" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = proiecția gâtului</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="104.9" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = proiecția gâtului</text>
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<text x="672" y="84.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP1 75.83 = distanța stopului</text>
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@@ -254,7 +254,7 @@ schimbe cifrele de la o secțiune la alta.</p>
<text x="313.0" y="366.9" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">capul</text>
<text x="523.0" y="309.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji</text>
<text x="538.0" y="157.7" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji = trigger</text>
<text x="568.0" y="268.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">retest</text>
<text x="568.0" y="268.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">pullback la nivelul de breakout</text>
<text x="685.0" y="65.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">apoi trail</text>
<text x="24" y="479" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. Geometria e a cursului; prețurile și R-urile sunt ale mele.</text>
</svg></p>
@@ -264,11 +264,15 @@ breakout; stopul stă în treimea de jos dintre cap și nivelul umărului; prima
țintă e la distanța stopului.</strong></p>
<p>De ce cifrele din desen: capul la 52.00, umerii la 58.50, deci H = 6.50.
Treimea de jos începe la 52.00 + 6.50/3 = <strong>54.17</strong> — asta e cea mai sus la care
ai voie să pui stopul (derivare a mea pe exemplul meu, nu un preț rostit în
ai voie să pui stopul, adică riscul cel mai mic permis, nu stopul „cel mai
strâns" în vreun alt sens (derivare a mea pe exemplul meu, nu un preț rostit în
lecție). Intrarea la close-ul candelei de breakout, 65.00, pune R la 10.83, adică
<strong>16,7% din preț</strong>. Nu e o greșeală de desen: așa ies stopurile la strategia
asta, și de aceea secțiunea de position sizing contează mai mult decât la
celelalte.</p>
<strong>16,7% din preț</strong>. Atenție de unde vine procentul: din candela de breakout pe
care am desenat-o eu, un marubozu de 6.30 care împinge close-ul la 65.00. Cu un
trigger buy doji mic, cum e exemplul din lecție, intrarea ar cădea aproape de
vârful consolidării și R-ul ar fi în jur de 5.8, nu 10.83. Stopurile ies oricum
mari la strategia asta — de aceea secțiunea de position sizing contează mai mult
decât la celelalte — dar cifra de 16,7% e a desenului, nu a strategiei.</p>
<h2 id="pasul-1-gasesti-un-hs-rasturnat-si-ii-ceri-un-nivel-sub-cap-sau-sub-umar-m">Pasul 1 — Găsești un HS răsturnat și îi ceri un nivel sub cap sau sub umăr (M)</h2>
<p>Deschizi graficul și cauți un v-bottom cu trei minime: umăr stâng, un cap mai
jos, un umăr drept înapoi la nivelul primului. Apoi — și aici e tot filtrul —
@@ -290,10 +294,10 @@ un pattern care nu e perfect."</p>
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 1, DA — capul în suport, umărul drept pe pivot</text>
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<text x="30" y="249.6" fill="#b06000">suport monthly 36.00</text>
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<text x="30" y="193.6" fill="#6a3d9a">pivot monthly 40.00</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="249.6" fill="#b06000">suport monthly 36.00</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="193.6" fill="#6a3d9a">pivot monthly 40.00</text>
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<text x="591" y="173" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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@@ -426,7 +430,7 @@ volumul scade la fiecare picior, deci exact cazul în care nu intri.</p>
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 1, NU — triple bottom la al 4-lea test</text>
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<text x="390.5" y="173.0" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">breakdown, nu breakout</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="236.0" x2="686" y2="236.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="230.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">baza testată de 3 ori: 31.00</text>
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<text x="520" y="216" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
@@ -537,8 +541,8 @@ să închidă peste doji-ul de dedesubt.</p>
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 2, DA — trigger valid din umărul drept</text>
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<text x="229.5" y="152.6" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">umărul drept: 11 bare de consolidare</text>
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<text x="30" y="159.6" fill="#6a3d9a">vârful consolidării 63.30</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="159.6" fill="#6a3d9a">vârful consolidării 63.30</text>
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<text x="636" y="183" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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@@ -724,13 +728,18 @@ prețul încă nu e acolo, dar e pe drum încet […] să te ții să facă new
<p>Cu alte cuvinte: volumul rupe înaintea prețului. Dacă volumul face minime tot
mai joase în timp ce prețul încă ține consolidarea, ai un candidat de short, nu
de long — oricât de frumos arată patternul.</p>
<p>Regula se citește pe o <strong>histogramă cu semn</strong> (on balance volume sau o
histogramă de volum instituțional), nu pe barele brute de volum: „sub swing
low-ul de aici" presupune o linie de zero și minime care se pot compara între
ele. De aceea panoul de jos al diagramei următoare e desenat altfel decât cel de
la trigger-ul valid — acolo barele brute ajung, aici nu.</p>
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<text x="30" y="148.8" fill="#c00">baza 58.60</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="148.8" fill="#c00">baza 58.60</text>
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@@ -779,36 +788,37 @@ de long — oricât de frumos arată patternul.</p>
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<text x="24" y="244.8" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="682" y="286.8" fill="#888" text-anchor="end">0</text>
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<text x="24" y="244.8" fill="#555">histogramă de volum, cu semn (stil on balance volume)</text>
<text x="500.0" y="200.8" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji</text>
<text x="526.0" y="50.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">închide peste consolidare, dar volumul e praf</text>
<text x="370.0" y="196.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">volumul face minime tot mai joase</text>
<text x="526.0" y="50.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">închide peste consolidare, dar volumul e deja sub zero</text>
<text x="344.0" y="213.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">histograma rupe sub propriul swing low, de trei ori</text>
<text x="642.0" y="238.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">breakdown</text>
<text x="24" y="361" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Prețul arată identic cu diagrama de deasupra; diferă panoul de volum. False breakout.</text>
<text x="24" y="361" fill="#555">Exemplu construit. Prețul e identic cu al diagramei de deasupra; panoul de jos e histograma cu semn, nu volumul brut.</text>
</svg></p>
<h2 id="pasul-3-stopul-o-treime-din-inaltimea-capumar-drept-primul-p">Pasul 3 — Stopul: o treime din înălțimea cap–umăr drept (primul P)</h2>
<p>Măsori două lucruri și împarți la trei. Întâi, înălțimea H: de la low-ul capului
@@ -835,14 +845,14 @@ treime, de la bază la vârf o treime […] 1x3 din înălțimea cap–umăr dre
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 3, stopul — H de la cap la umărul drept, apoi o treime</text>
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<text x="672" y="171.2" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">umăr drept 58.50</text>
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<text x="30" y="255.7" fill="#6a3d9a">cap 52.00 — baza lui H</text>
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<text x="672" y="227.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL minim 54.17 = cap + H/3</text>
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<text x="30" y="86.7" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00; distanța până la SL e R</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="255.7" fill="#6a3d9a">cap 52.00 — baza lui H</text>
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<text x="672" y="227.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL cel mai sus permis: 54.17 = cap + H/3</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="86.7" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00; distanța până la SL e R</text>
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@@ -922,21 +932,27 @@ e stopul în jos.</p>
lecția, și e importantă: <strong>nu măsori de la extremele patternului, ci din
interiorul gâtului.</strong> „Nu e bine să măsor de la low-ul de aici, că măsori
distanța de stop loss și target de profit; măsoară din interiorul gâtului pe
aici, iau un average." Pe diagrama de mai jos linia gâtului e media celor două
maxime, nu cel mai sus dintre ele.</p>
aici, iau un average." Pe diagrama de mai jos linia gâtului e trasată <strong>din
interiorul gâtului</strong>, la 63.00 — adică sub cele mai de sus vârfuri ale zonei,
care ating 63.30. Nu e media vârfurilor, și nu există o formulă rostită care să
o reproducă: „un average" din interiorul gâtului e tot ce spune lecția. Când
reconstruiești tu patternul, nivelul ăsta e o alegere a ta de câteva zecimi, iar
TP2 se mișcă exact cu ea.</p>
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 4, țintele — TP1 = R, TP2 = proiecția gâtului</text>
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<text x="30" y="240.8" fill="#6a3d9a">linia gâtului 63.00, media celor două vârfuri</text>
<line x1="24" y1="114.8" x2="686" y2="114.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30" y="108.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = gât + înălțimea HS</text>
<line x1="24" y1="92.8" x2="686" y2="92.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30" y="86.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP1 75.83 = intrare + R</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="378.8" x2="686" y2="378.8" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="372.8" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">capul 52.00 = baza înălțimii HS</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="352.8" x2="686" y2="352.8" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30.0" y="346.8" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="222.8" x2="686" y2="222.8" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30.0" y="216.8" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="246.8" x2="686" y2="246.8" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30.0" y="240.8" fill="#6a3d9a">linia gâtului 63.00, din interiorul gâtului (nu de la vârfuri)</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="114.8" x2="686" y2="114.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30.0" y="108.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = gât + înălțimea HS (63.00 − 52.00 = 11.00)</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="92.8" x2="686" y2="92.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30.0" y="86.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP1 75.83 = intrare + R</text>
<polyline points="514.0,267.3 538.0,254.8 562.0,244.2 586.0,233.7 610.0,223.1 634.0,212.9" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="640" y="207" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
<line x1="58.0" y1="363.2" x2="58.0" y2="378.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
@@ -996,8 +1012,9 @@ maxime, nu cel mai sus dintre ele.</p>
Autorul o spune de trei ori, cu exemple: „În unele situații s-ar putea ca, de
fapt, TP2, conform HS răsturnat cum am zis eu aici, să fie un pic mai sus decât
TP1 […] sau să fie mai jos. Noi măsurând așa, o să constatați că de fapt TP1 e
mai mare decât TP2." Și, în cele mai multe cazuri, se suprapun: „o să cădeți pe
TP1 egal cu [stopul], ar putea să fie exact TP2." De ce depinde: „de mărimea
mai mare decât TP2." Și uneori coincid: „o să cădeți pe TP1 egal cu [stopul],
<strong>ar putea</strong> să fie exact TP2." („Ar putea" e al lui — e o posibilitate, nu o
frecvență.) De ce depinde: „de mărimea
HS-ului, de time frame și așa mai departe."</p>
<p>Pe exemplul construit, TP2 iese la 74.00 și TP1 la 75.83 — TP1 peste TP2, cu
mai puțin de 2 unități între ele. Practic înseamnă: <strong>nu alegi între ele, le
@@ -1035,7 +1052,8 @@ ceea ce e exact rezultatul pe care îl apără în citatul de mai sus.</p>
califici contul foarte repede […] sau poți să-l [arzi] în două tranzacții, dacă
intri cu poziții mari."</p>
<p><strong>Completare proprie, legată de pasul 3:</strong> cu R la 16,7% din preț (cazul din
exemplul construit), 1% risc pe un cont de 10.000 înseamnă 100 de dolari risc,
exemplul construit, unde candela de breakout e mare — vezi rezerva de la pasul
3), 1% risc pe un cont de 10.000 înseamnă 100 de dolari risc,
deci o poziție de circa 600 de dolari — mai puțin de 10 acțiuni la 65. Nu e o
limitare a strategiei, e aritmetica stopurilor mari. Dacă vrei poziții mai mari
cu același risc, ai nevoie de patternul pe un timeframe mai mic, unde H e mai
@@ -1052,14 +1070,16 @@ retest."</p>
consolidare, că asta e locul crimei. Poți să retestezi și până jos, dar deja
dacă retestează până jos, e periculos să facă break-down."</p>
<!--SVG:retest_da-->
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 519" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 511" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Retestul, DA — se oprește în jumătatea de sus</text>
<rect x="47.0" y="249.2" width="292.0" height="126.0" fill="#6a3d9a" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
<text x="47.0" y="244.2" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">consolidarea</text>
<line x1="24" y1="257.2" x2="686" y2="257.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<rect x="47.0" y="257.2" width="292.0" height="110.0" fill="#6a3d9a" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
<text x="47.0" y="252.2" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">consolidarea</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="257.2" x2="686" y2="257.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="251.2" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">vârful consolidării 53.70 = locul crimei</text>
<line x1="24" y1="312.2" x2="686" y2="312.2" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="306.2" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">jumătatea consolidării 51.20</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="312.2" x2="686" y2="312.2" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="306.2" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">jumătatea consolidării 51.20 = (53.70 + 48.70) / 2</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="367.2" x2="686" y2="367.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="361.2" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">baza consolidării 48.70</text>
<line x1="58.0" y1="332.0" x2="58.0" y2="367.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="52.0" y="338.6" width="12" height="22.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="88.0" y1="305.6" x2="88.0" y2="345.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
@@ -1098,31 +1118,31 @@ dacă retestează până jos, e periculos să facă break-down."</p>
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<rect x="592.0" y="74.6" width="12" height="33.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="142.0" y="448.0" width="12" height="29.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="292.0" y="444.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="322.0" y="446.6" width="12" height="30.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="352.0" y="407.2" width="12" height="70.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="382.0" y="439.3" width="12" height="37.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="412.0" y="442.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="442.0" y="443.7" width="12" height="33.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="472.0" y="436.4" width="12" height="40.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="502.0" y="413.0" width="12" height="64.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="532.0" y="417.4" width="12" height="59.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="562.0" y="442.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="592.0" y="444.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<text x="24" y="401.2" fill="#555">volum</text>
<line x1="24" y1="469.2" x2="686" y2="469.2" stroke="#888"/>
<rect x="52.0" y="440.8" width="12" height="28.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="82.0" y="435.7" width="12" height="33.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="112.0" y="437.8" width="12" height="31.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="142.0" y="440.0" width="12" height="29.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="172.0" y="434.9" width="12" height="34.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="202.0" y="437.1" width="12" height="32.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="232.0" y="439.3" width="12" height="29.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="262.0" y="434.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="292.0" y="436.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="322.0" y="438.6" width="12" height="30.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="352.0" y="399.2" width="12" height="70.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="382.0" y="447.3" width="12" height="21.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="412.0" y="450.2" width="12" height="19.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="442.0" y="451.7" width="12" height="17.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="472.0" y="448.8" width="12" height="20.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="502.0" y="405.0" width="12" height="64.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="532.0" y="409.4" width="12" height="59.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="562.0" y="434.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="592.0" y="436.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<text x="24" y="393.2" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="358.0" y="182.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">breakout</text>
<text x="448.0" y="325.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">retest, se oprește peste jumătate</text>
<text x="478.0" y="348.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji aici: a doua intrare</text>
<text x="24" y="507" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Volum mic pe retest, mare pe repornire: nu vin vânzători noi.</text>
<text x="24" y="499" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Volum mic pe retest, mare pe repornire: nu vin vânzători noi.</text>
</svg></p>
<p>Deci: retest până la jumătatea consolidării = normal, intri. Retest care trece
sub jumătate și se apropie de bază = semn de avertizare; sub bază, ideea s-a
@@ -1130,13 +1150,13 @@ inversat — „să cadă sub consolidare și atunci se shortează".</p>
<!--SVG:retest_nu-->
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 387" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Retestul, NU — trece sub jumătate și rupe baza</text>
<rect x="47.0" y="99.0" width="292.0" height="91.0" fill="#6a3d9a" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
<text x="47.0" y="94.0" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">aceeași consolidare</text>
<line x1="24" y1="107.0" x2="686" y2="107.0" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<rect x="47.0" y="107.0" width="292.0" height="75.0" fill="#6a3d9a" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
<text x="47.0" y="102.0" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">aceeași consolidare</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="107.0" x2="686" y2="107.0" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="101.0" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">vârful consolidării 53.70</text>
<line x1="24" y1="144.5" x2="686" y2="144.5" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<line x1="24.0" y1="144.5" x2="686" y2="144.5" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="138.5" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">jumătatea consolidării 51.20</text>
<line x1="24" y1="182.0" x2="686" y2="182.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<line x1="24.0" y1="182.0" x2="686" y2="182.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="176.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">baza 48.70</text>
<line x1="58.0" y1="158.0" x2="58.0" y2="182.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="52.0" y="162.5" width="12" height="15.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
@@ -1230,8 +1250,8 @@ Aproximativ la 51, adică în zona suportului."</p>
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 456" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Varianta short — XLF, ascending wedge</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="295.5" x2="686" y2="295.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30" y="289.5" fill="#1a5fb4">ținta rostită în lecție: 51</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="295.5" x2="686" y2="295.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30.0" y="289.5" fill="#1a5fb4">ținta rostită în lecție: 51</text>
<polyline points="495.0,152.0 518.0,150.7 541.0,152.3 564.0,156.9 587.0,164.7 610.0,170.9 633.0,173.8" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="639" y="168" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
<line x1="58.0" y1="207.7" x2="58.0" y2="259.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
@@ -1488,6 +1508,6 @@ se poate reține din ele:</p>
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rising-wedge.asp">Investopedia — Rising Wedge</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp">Investopedia — Short Squeeze</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/onbalancevolume.asp">Investopedia — On-Balance Volume (OBV)</a></li>
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summaries/06_MODUL_5/05_strategia_8_dhrt.md
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@@ -80,15 +80,15 @@ schimbe cifrele de la o secțiune la alta.
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">DHRT, tot trade-ul — HS răsturnat (exemplu construit)</text>
<rect x="423.5" y="220.6" width="109.0" height="68.8" fill="#188a3e" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1"/>
<text x="423.5" y="215.6" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">umărul drept</text>
<line x1="24" y1="329.0" x2="686" y2="329.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30" y="323.0" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
<line x1="24" y1="209.9" x2="686" y2="209.9" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<line x1="24.0" y1="329.0" x2="686" y2="329.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30.0" y="323.0" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="209.9" x2="686" y2="209.9" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="203.9" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 65.00</text>
<line x1="24" y1="231.9" x2="686" y2="231.9" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<line x1="24.0" y1="231.9" x2="686" y2="231.9" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="225.9" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">linia gâtului 63.00</text>
<line x1="24" y1="110.9" x2="686" y2="110.9" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30" y="104.9" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = proiecția gâtului</text>
<line x1="24" y1="90.8" x2="686" y2="90.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<line x1="24.0" y1="110.9" x2="686" y2="110.9" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30.0" y="104.9" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = proiecția gâtului</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="90.8" x2="686" y2="90.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="84.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP1 75.83 = distanța stopului</text>
<polyline points="343.0,257.8 358.0,265.8 373.0,271.6 388.0,275.1 403.0,276.8 418.0,276.8 433.0,276.1 448.0,275.2 463.0,275.0 478.0,275.9 493.0,277.2 508.0,279.3 523.0,280.9 538.0,279.8 553.0,278.2 568.0,274.6 583.0,268.8 598.0,260.6 613.0,250.7 628.0,239.3 643.0,229.5 658.0,219.9 673.0,210.2 688.0,200.8" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<line x1="58.0" y1="117.5" x2="58.0" y2="148.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
@@ -226,7 +226,7 @@ schimbe cifrele de la o secțiune la alta.
<text x="313.0" y="366.9" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">capul</text>
<text x="523.0" y="309.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji</text>
<text x="538.0" y="157.7" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji = trigger</text>
<text x="568.0" y="268.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">retest</text>
<text x="568.0" y="268.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">pullback la nivelul de breakout</text>
<text x="685.0" y="65.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">apoi trail</text>
<text x="24" y="479" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. Geometria e a cursului; prețurile și R-urile sunt ale mele.</text>
</svg>
@@ -238,11 +238,15 @@ breakout; stopul stă în treimea de jos dintre cap și nivelul umărului; prima
De ce cifrele din desen: capul la 52.00, umerii la 58.50, deci H = 6.50.
Treimea de jos începe la 52.00 + 6.50/3 = **54.17** — asta e cea mai sus la care
ai voie să pui stopul (derivare a mea pe exemplul meu, nu un preț rostit în
ai voie să pui stopul, adică riscul cel mai mic permis, nu stopul „cel mai
strâns" în vreun alt sens (derivare a mea pe exemplul meu, nu un preț rostit în
lecție). Intrarea la close-ul candelei de breakout, 65.00, pune R la 10.83, adică
**16,7% din preț**. Nu e o greșeală de desen: așa ies stopurile la strategia
asta, și de aceea secțiunea de position sizing contează mai mult decât la
celelalte.
**16,7% din preț**. Atenție de unde vine procentul: din candela de breakout pe
care am desenat-o eu, un marubozu de 6.30 care împinge close-ul la 65.00. Cu un
trigger buy doji mic, cum e exemplul din lecție, intrarea ar cădea aproape de
vârful consolidării și R-ul ar fi în jur de 5.8, nu 10.83. Stopurile ies oricum
mari la strategia asta — de aceea secțiunea de position sizing contează mai mult
decât la celelalte — dar cifra de 16,7% e a desenului, nu a strategiei.
## Pasul 1 — Găsești un HS răsturnat și îi ceri un nivel sub cap sau sub umăr (M)
Deschizi graficul și cauți un v-bottom cu trei minime: umăr stâng, un cap mai
@@ -268,10 +272,10 @@ un pattern care nu e perfect."
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 1, DA — capul în suport, umărul drept pe pivot</text>
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<text x="405.5" y="66.0" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">umărul drept, pullback pe pivot</text>
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<text x="30" y="249.6" fill="#b06000">suport monthly 36.00</text>
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<text x="30" y="193.6" fill="#6a3d9a">pivot monthly 40.00</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="249.6" fill="#b06000">suport monthly 36.00</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="193.6" fill="#6a3d9a">pivot monthly 40.00</text>
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<text x="591" y="173" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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@@ -410,7 +414,7 @@ volumul scade la fiecare picior, deci exact cazul în care nu intri.
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 1, NU — triple bottom la al 4-lea test</text>
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<text x="390.5" y="173.0" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">breakdown, nu breakout</text>
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<text x="672" y="230.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">baza testată de 3 ori: 31.00</text>
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<text x="520" y="216" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
@@ -526,8 +530,8 @@ să închidă peste doji-ul de dedesubt.
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 2, DA — trigger valid din umărul drept</text>
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<text x="229.5" y="152.6" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">umărul drept: 11 bare de consolidare</text>
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<text x="30" y="159.6" fill="#6a3d9a">vârful consolidării 63.30</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="159.6" fill="#6a3d9a">vârful consolidării 63.30</text>
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@@ -727,13 +731,19 @@ Cu alte cuvinte: volumul rupe înaintea prețului. Dacă volumul face minime tot
mai joase în timp ce prețul încă ține consolidarea, ai un candidat de short, nu
de long — oricât de frumos arată patternul.
Regula se citește pe o **histogramă cu semn** (on balance volume sau o
histogramă de volum instituțional), nu pe barele brute de volum: „sub swing
low-ul de aici" presupune o linie de zero și minime care se pot compara între
ele. De aceea panoul de jos al diagramei următoare e desenat altfel decât cel de
la trigger-ul valid — acolo barele brute ajung, aici nu.
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 2, NU — breakout de preț fără breakout de volum</text>
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<text x="229.5" y="76.0" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">aceeași consolidare de 11 bare</text>
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<text x="30" y="148.8" fill="#c00">baza 58.60</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="148.8" fill="#c00">baza 58.60</text>
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@@ -782,36 +792,37 @@ de long — oricât de frumos arată patternul.
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<text x="24" y="244.8" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="500.0" y="200.8" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji</text>
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<text x="344.0" y="213.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">histograma rupe sub propriul swing low, de trei ori</text>
<text x="642.0" y="238.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">breakdown</text>
<text x="24" y="361" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Prețul arată identic cu diagrama de deasupra; diferă panoul de volum. False breakout.</text>
<text x="24" y="361" fill="#555">Exemplu construit. Prețul e identic cu al diagramei de deasupra; panoul de jos e histograma cu semn, nu volumul brut.</text>
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## Pasul 3 — Stopul: o treime din înălțimea cap–umăr drept (primul P)
@@ -841,14 +852,14 @@ Două consecințe practice, amândouă spuse de el:
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 3, stopul — H de la cap la umărul drept, apoi o treime</text>
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<text x="30" y="255.7" fill="#6a3d9a">cap 52.00 — baza lui H</text>
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<text x="672" y="227.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL minim 54.17 = cap + H/3</text>
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<text x="30" y="86.7" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00; distanța până la SL e R</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="255.7" fill="#6a3d9a">cap 52.00 — baza lui H</text>
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<text x="672" y="227.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL cel mai sus permis: 54.17 = cap + H/3</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="86.7" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00; distanța până la SL e R</text>
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@@ -932,22 +943,28 @@ e stopul în jos.
lecția, și e importantă: **nu măsori de la extremele patternului, ci din
interiorul gâtului.** „Nu e bine să măsor de la low-ul de aici, că măsori
distanța de stop loss și target de profit; măsoară din interiorul gâtului pe
aici, iau un average." Pe diagrama de mai jos linia gâtului e media celor două
maxime, nu cel mai sus dintre ele.
aici, iau un average." Pe diagrama de mai jos linia gâtului e trasată **din
interiorul gâtului**, la 63.00 — adică sub cele mai de sus vârfuri ale zonei,
care ating 63.30. Nu e media vârfurilor, și nu există o formulă rostită care să
o reproducă: „un average" din interiorul gâtului e tot ce spune lecția. Când
reconstruiești tu patternul, nivelul ăsta e o alegere a ta de câteva zecimi, iar
TP2 se mișcă exact cu ea.
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 4, țintele — TP1 = R, TP2 = proiecția gâtului</text>
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<text x="30" y="346.8" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
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<text x="30" y="108.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = gât + înălțimea HS</text>
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<text x="30" y="86.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP1 75.83 = intrare + R</text>
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<text x="672" y="372.8" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">capul 52.00 = baza înălțimii HS</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="216.8" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="240.8" fill="#6a3d9a">linia gâtului 63.00, din interiorul gâtului (nu de la vârfuri)</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="108.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = gât + înălțimea HS (63.00 − 52.00 = 11.00)</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="86.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP1 75.83 = intrare + R</text>
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<text x="640" y="207" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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@@ -1008,8 +1025,9 @@ maxime, nu cel mai sus dintre ele.
Autorul o spune de trei ori, cu exemple: „În unele situații s-ar putea ca, de
fapt, TP2, conform HS răsturnat cum am zis eu aici, să fie un pic mai sus decât
TP1 […] sau să fie mai jos. Noi măsurând așa, o să constatați că de fapt TP1 e
mai mare decât TP2." Și, în cele mai multe cazuri, se suprapun: „o să cădeți pe
TP1 egal cu [stopul], ar putea să fie exact TP2." De ce depinde: „de mărimea
mai mare decât TP2." Și uneori coincid: „o să cădeți pe TP1 egal cu [stopul],
**ar putea** să fie exact TP2." („Ar putea" e al lui — e o posibilitate, nu o
frecvență.) De ce depinde: „de mărimea
HS-ului, de time frame și așa mai departe."
Pe exemplul construit, TP2 iese la 74.00 și TP1 la 75.83 — TP1 peste TP2, cu
@@ -1054,7 +1072,8 @@ califici contul foarte repede […] sau poți să-l [arzi] în două tranzacții
intri cu poziții mari."
**Completare proprie, legată de pasul 3:** cu R la 16,7% din preț (cazul din
exemplul construit), 1% risc pe un cont de 10.000 înseamnă 100 de dolari risc,
exemplul construit, unde candela de breakout e mare — vezi rezerva de la pasul
3), 1% risc pe un cont de 10.000 înseamnă 100 de dolari risc,
deci o poziție de circa 600 de dolari — mai puțin de 10 acțiuni la 65. Nu e o
limitare a strategiei, e aritmetica stopurilor mari. Dacă vrei poziții mai mari
cu același risc, ai nevoie de patternul pe un timeframe mai mic, unde H e mai
@@ -1074,14 +1093,16 @@ consolidare, că asta e locul crimei. Poți să retestezi și până jos, dar de
dacă retestează până jos, e periculos să facă break-down."
<!--SVG:retest_da-->
<svg viewBox="0 0 700 519" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<svg viewBox="0 0 700 511" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Retestul, DA — se oprește în jumătatea de sus</text>
<rect x="47.0" y="249.2" width="292.0" height="126.0" fill="#6a3d9a" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
<text x="47.0" y="244.2" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">consolidarea</text>
<line x1="24" y1="257.2" x2="686" y2="257.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<rect x="47.0" y="257.2" width="292.0" height="110.0" fill="#6a3d9a" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
<text x="47.0" y="252.2" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">consolidarea</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="257.2" x2="686" y2="257.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="251.2" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">vârful consolidării 53.70 = locul crimei</text>
<line x1="24" y1="312.2" x2="686" y2="312.2" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="306.2" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">jumătatea consolidării 51.20</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="312.2" x2="686" y2="312.2" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="306.2" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">jumătatea consolidării 51.20 = (53.70 + 48.70) / 2</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="367.2" x2="686" y2="367.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="361.2" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">baza consolidării 48.70</text>
<line x1="58.0" y1="332.0" x2="58.0" y2="367.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="52.0" y="338.6" width="12" height="22.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="88.0" y1="305.6" x2="88.0" y2="345.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
@@ -1120,31 +1141,31 @@ dacă retestează până jos, e periculos să facă break-down."
<rect x="562.0" y="107.6" width="12" height="37.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="598.0" y1="68.0" x2="598.0" y2="114.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="592.0" y="74.6" width="12" height="33.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
<line x1="24" y1="477.2" x2="686" y2="477.2" stroke="#888"/>
<rect x="52.0" y="448.8" width="12" height="28.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="82.0" y="443.7" width="12" height="33.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="112.0" y="445.8" width="12" height="31.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="142.0" y="448.0" width="12" height="29.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="172.0" y="442.9" width="12" height="34.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="202.0" y="445.1" width="12" height="32.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="232.0" y="447.3" width="12" height="29.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="262.0" y="442.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="292.0" y="444.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="322.0" y="446.6" width="12" height="30.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="352.0" y="407.2" width="12" height="70.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="382.0" y="439.3" width="12" height="37.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="412.0" y="442.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="442.0" y="443.7" width="12" height="33.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="472.0" y="436.4" width="12" height="40.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="502.0" y="413.0" width="12" height="64.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="532.0" y="417.4" width="12" height="59.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="562.0" y="442.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="592.0" y="444.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<text x="24" y="401.2" fill="#555">volum</text>
<line x1="24" y1="469.2" x2="686" y2="469.2" stroke="#888"/>
<rect x="52.0" y="440.8" width="12" height="28.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="82.0" y="435.7" width="12" height="33.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="112.0" y="437.8" width="12" height="31.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="142.0" y="440.0" width="12" height="29.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="172.0" y="434.9" width="12" height="34.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="202.0" y="437.1" width="12" height="32.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="232.0" y="439.3" width="12" height="29.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="262.0" y="434.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="292.0" y="436.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="322.0" y="438.6" width="12" height="30.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="352.0" y="399.2" width="12" height="70.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="382.0" y="447.3" width="12" height="21.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="412.0" y="450.2" width="12" height="19.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="442.0" y="451.7" width="12" height="17.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="472.0" y="448.8" width="12" height="20.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="502.0" y="405.0" width="12" height="64.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="532.0" y="409.4" width="12" height="59.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="562.0" y="434.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="592.0" y="436.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<text x="24" y="393.2" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="358.0" y="182.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">breakout</text>
<text x="448.0" y="325.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">retest, se oprește peste jumătate</text>
<text x="478.0" y="348.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji aici: a doua intrare</text>
<text x="24" y="507" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Volum mic pe retest, mare pe repornire: nu vin vânzători noi.</text>
<text x="24" y="499" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Volum mic pe retest, mare pe repornire: nu vin vânzători noi.</text>
</svg>
Deci: retest până la jumătatea consolidării = normal, intri. Retest care trece
@@ -1154,13 +1175,13 @@ inversat — „să cadă sub consolidare și atunci se shortează".
<!--SVG:retest_nu-->
<svg viewBox="0 0 700 387" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Retestul, NU — trece sub jumătate și rupe baza</text>
<rect x="47.0" y="99.0" width="292.0" height="91.0" fill="#6a3d9a" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
<text x="47.0" y="94.0" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">aceeași consolidare</text>
<line x1="24" y1="107.0" x2="686" y2="107.0" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<rect x="47.0" y="107.0" width="292.0" height="75.0" fill="#6a3d9a" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
<text x="47.0" y="102.0" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">aceeași consolidare</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="107.0" x2="686" y2="107.0" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="101.0" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">vârful consolidării 53.70</text>
<line x1="24" y1="144.5" x2="686" y2="144.5" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<line x1="24.0" y1="144.5" x2="686" y2="144.5" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="138.5" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">jumătatea consolidării 51.20</text>
<line x1="24" y1="182.0" x2="686" y2="182.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<line x1="24.0" y1="182.0" x2="686" y2="182.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="176.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">baza 48.70</text>
<line x1="58.0" y1="158.0" x2="58.0" y2="182.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
<rect x="52.0" y="162.5" width="12" height="15.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
@@ -1259,8 +1280,8 @@ Aproximativ la 51, adică în zona suportului."
<svg viewBox="0 0 700 456" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Varianta short — XLF, ascending wedge</text>
<rect x="94.0" y="60.0" width="388.0" height="188.2" fill="#c00" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
<line x1="24" y1="295.5" x2="686" y2="295.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30" y="289.5" fill="#1a5fb4">ținta rostită în lecție: 51</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="295.5" x2="686" y2="295.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30.0" y="289.5" fill="#1a5fb4">ținta rostită în lecție: 51</text>
<polyline points="495.0,152.0 518.0,150.7 541.0,152.3 564.0,156.9 587.0,164.7 610.0,170.9 633.0,173.8" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="639" y="168" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
<line x1="58.0" y1="207.7" x2="58.0" y2="259.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>

54
svg_candles.py
View File

@@ -60,6 +60,8 @@ class Level:
color: str = "#1a5fb4"
dash: str = "4 3"
label_at: str = "right" # "right" | "left" — unde stă eticheta
i0: int | None = None # linia începe de la candela i0, nu din marginea stângă
label_dy: float = 0.0 # mută eticheta față de linie (implicit: 6px deasupra)
def __post_init__(self) -> None:
_check_dash(self.dash, "Level")
@@ -138,6 +140,10 @@ class Chart:
vol_h: float = 0.0 # înălțimea panoului de volum (0 = fără panou)
vol_gap: float = 26.0 # spațiu între panoul de preț și cel de volum
vol_label: str = "volum"
# valoarea de volum tratată ca linie de zero: barele peste ea se desenează
# în sus, cele sub ea în jos (histogramă cu semn, stil on balance volume).
# Fără ea, panoul e volumul brut, desenat de la bază.
vol_zero: float | None = None
title: str = "" # ex. "SPY — daily"
zones: list[Zone] = field(default_factory=list)
arrows: list[Arrow] = field(default_factory=list)
@@ -276,12 +282,14 @@ class Chart:
# nivelurile: linie pe toată lățimea, eticheta deasupra liniei
for lv in self.levels:
y = self._y(lv.price)
out.append(f'<line x1="24" y1="{y:.1f}" x2="{self.width - 14}" y2="{y:.1f}" '
xs = 24 if lv.i0 is None else self._cx(lv.i0) - self.body_w / 2
out.append(f'<line x1="{xs:.1f}" y1="{y:.1f}" x2="{self.width - 14}" y2="{y:.1f}" '
f'stroke="{lv.color}" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="{lv.dash}"/>')
ty = y - 6 + lv.label_dy
if lv.label_at == "left":
out.append(f'<text x="30" y="{y - 6:.1f}" fill="{lv.color}">{lv.text}</text>')
out.append(f'<text x="{xs + 6:.1f}" y="{ty:.1f}" fill="{lv.color}">{lv.text}</text>')
else:
out.append(f'<text x="{self.width - 28}" y="{y - 6:.1f}" fill="{lv.color}" '
out.append(f'<text x="{self.width - 28}" y="{ty:.1f}" fill="{lv.color}" '
f'text-anchor="end">{lv.text}</text>')
x0 = self.left
@@ -329,17 +337,25 @@ class Chart:
# panoul de volum: bare colorate pe direcția candelei
if vol_top is not None:
assert vol_base is not None
vmax = max(vols)
out.append(f'<line x1="24" y1="{vol_base:.1f}" x2="{self.width - 14}" '
f'y2="{vol_base:.1f}" stroke="#888"/>')
z = self.vol_zero
vmax = max(vols) if z is None else max(abs(v - z) for v in vols)
y_zero = vol_base if z is None else vol_top + self.vol_h / 2
span = self.vol_h if z is None else self.vol_h / 2
out.append(f'<line x1="24" y1="{y_zero:.1f}" x2="{self.width - 14}" '
f'y2="{y_zero:.1f}" stroke="#888"/>')
if z is not None:
out.append(f'<text x="{self.width - 18}" y="{y_zero - 4:.1f}" '
f'fill="#888" text-anchor="end">0</text>')
for i, cd in enumerate(self.candles):
if cd.vol is None:
continue
bh = cd.vol / vmax * self.vol_h
color = cd.color or ("#188a3e" if cd.c >= cd.o else "#c00")
s = cd.vol if z is None else cd.vol - z
bh = s / vmax * span
color = (cd.color or ("#188a3e" if cd.c >= cd.o else "#c00")) if z is None \
else ("#188a3e" if s >= 0 else "#c00")
out.append(f'<rect x="{self._cx(i) - self.body_w / 2:.1f}" '
f'y="{vol_base - bh:.1f}" width="{self.body_w}" '
f'height="{bh:.1f}" fill="{color}" opacity="0.55"/>')
f'y="{min(y_zero, y_zero - bh):.1f}" width="{self.body_w}" '
f'height="{abs(bh):.1f}" fill="{color}" opacity="0.55"/>')
out.append(f'<text x="24" y="{vol_top - 6:.1f}" fill="#555">{self.vol_label}</text>')
# etichete ancorate pe candele anume
@@ -454,6 +470,24 @@ def selftest():
assert len(hs) == 3, f"panoul de volum a desenat {len(hs)} bare"
assert abs(hs[2] / hs[0] - 4.0) < 0.01, f"volum 4x desenat la {hs[2]/hs[0]:.2f}x"
assert abs(hs[1] / hs[0] - 2.0) < 0.01, f"volum 2x desenat la {hs[1]/hs[0]:.2f}x"
# histograma cu semn: bara sub zero se desenează în jos, nu în sus
ch2z = Chart(candles=cds, scale=40, gap=14, body_w=9, vol_h=70, vol_zero=20.0)
svgz = ch2z.render()
y0 = float(__import__("re").search(r'y1="([\d.]+)"[^/]*stroke="#888"', svgz).group(1))
bars = [(float(y), float(h)) for y, h in __import__("re").findall(
r'<rect x="[\d.]+" y="([\d.]+)" width="9" height="([\d.]+)" fill="#\w+" opacity', svgz)]
assert abs(bars[0][0] - y0) < 0.01 and bars[0][1] > 1, \
"bara sub zero trebuie să plece de pe linia de zero în jos"
assert abs(bars[2][0] + bars[2][1] - y0) < 0.01, \
"bara peste zero trebuie să se termine pe linia de zero"
# linia de nivel segmentată începe de la candela cerută, nu din margine
ch4 = Chart(candles=cds, scale=40, gap=14, body_w=9,
levels=[Level(99.0, "trail", i0=1)])
x1 = float(__import__("re").search(r'<line x1="([\d.]+)"[^/]*stroke-dasharray="4 3"',
ch4.render()).group(1))
assert abs(x1 - (ch4._cx(1) - 4.5)) < 0.01, f"nivelul segmentat începe la x={x1}"
# structura din close-uri e păstrată exact
cl = [100.0, 98.0, 99.0, 96.5, 98.5, 101.0]
ser = from_closes(cl, wick=0.2)