MODUL 5: 24 de reparatii pe cele doua strategii, dupa verificare

Opt erau blocante, adica un cititor ar fi executat gresit pe cont:

- 56% era legat de o intrare la 133 care da de fapt 35,3%; cifra se propaga in
  dimensionarea pozitiei. Acum spune ca 56% e rostit separat si ca raportul nu
  se verifica.
- "2/3 taie jumatate din risc" era fals (29,3% vs 35,3%).
- definitia lui buy doji se contrazicea cu regula de 4 luni din acelasi
  document.
- diagrama de trail arata stopul deasupra pretului: liniile traversau tot
  graficul, deci in stanga stateau peste candele. Acum fiecare porneste din
  swing low-ul care o declanseaza, cu cele patru swing low-uri marcate.
- linia gatului era data ca "media celor doua varfuri", ceea ce nu reproduce
  63.00 pe propriul desen; e din interiorul gatului.
- singura regula mecanica de "nu intra" nu era desenata cu mecanismul ei:
  panoul de volum avea bare egale de la o baza, in loc de histograma cu semn.
- "SL minim 54.17" se citea invers decat intelege textul: e pretul cel mai
  sus permis, nu stopul cel mai stramt.
- lectura "TP2 vine inaintea lui TP1" era prezentata ca geometrie in doua
  diagrame, desi fraza-sursa e neinteligibila si sursa sprijina la fel de bine
  varianta in care se recalculeaza si TP si SL. Acum e marcata ca lectura
  chiar acolo unde e folosita, cu varianta alternativa alaturi.

svg_candles are trei adaugiri optionale (Level.i0, Level.label_dy,
Chart.vol_zero) cerute de reparatiile de mai sus; selftest-ul trece si
diagramele existente nu se schimba daca nu sunt regenerate.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ThN7ixZrowca8aTGrK1MUJ
This commit is contained in:
Claude Agent
2026-10-02 02:35:51 +00:00
parent 0dd358802d
commit c198cd0a7b
7 changed files with 1184 additions and 945 deletions

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@@ -108,15 +108,15 @@ schimbe cifrele de la o secțiune la alta.</p>
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">DHRT, tot trade-ul — HS răsturnat (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="30" y="323.0" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="323.0" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
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<text x="672" y="203.9" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 65.00</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="231.9" x2="686" y2="231.9" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="225.9" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">linia gâtului 63.00</text>
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<text x="30" y="104.9" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = proiecția gâtului</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="104.9" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = proiecția gâtului</text>
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<text x="672" y="84.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP1 75.83 = distanța stopului</text>
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@@ -254,7 +254,7 @@ schimbe cifrele de la o secțiune la alta.</p>
<text x="313.0" y="366.9" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">capul</text>
<text x="523.0" y="309.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji</text>
<text x="538.0" y="157.7" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji = trigger</text>
<text x="568.0" y="268.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">retest</text>
<text x="568.0" y="268.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">pullback la nivelul de breakout</text>
<text x="685.0" y="65.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">apoi trail</text>
<text x="24" y="479" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. Geometria e a cursului; prețurile și R-urile sunt ale mele.</text>
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@@ -264,11 +264,15 @@ breakout; stopul stă în treimea de jos dintre cap și nivelul umărului; prima
țintă e la distanța stopului.</strong></p>
<p>De ce cifrele din desen: capul la 52.00, umerii la 58.50, deci H = 6.50.
Treimea de jos începe la 52.00 + 6.50/3 = <strong>54.17</strong> — asta e cea mai sus la care
ai voie să pui stopul (derivare a mea pe exemplul meu, nu un preț rostit în
ai voie să pui stopul, adică riscul cel mai mic permis, nu stopul „cel mai
strâns" în vreun alt sens (derivare a mea pe exemplul meu, nu un preț rostit în
lecție). Intrarea la close-ul candelei de breakout, 65.00, pune R la 10.83, adică
<strong>16,7% din preț</strong>. Nu e o greșeală de desen: așa ies stopurile la strategia
asta, și de aceea secțiunea de position sizing contează mai mult decât la
celelalte.</p>
<strong>16,7% din preț</strong>. Atenție de unde vine procentul: din candela de breakout pe
care am desenat-o eu, un marubozu de 6.30 care împinge close-ul la 65.00. Cu un
trigger buy doji mic, cum e exemplul din lecție, intrarea ar cădea aproape de
vârful consolidării și R-ul ar fi în jur de 5.8, nu 10.83. Stopurile ies oricum
mari la strategia asta — de aceea secțiunea de position sizing contează mai mult
decât la celelalte — dar cifra de 16,7% e a desenului, nu a strategiei.</p>
<h2 id="pasul-1-gasesti-un-hs-rasturnat-si-ii-ceri-un-nivel-sub-cap-sau-sub-umar-m">Pasul 1 — Găsești un HS răsturnat și îi ceri un nivel sub cap sau sub umăr (M)</h2>
<p>Deschizi graficul și cauți un v-bottom cu trei minime: umăr stâng, un cap mai
jos, un umăr drept înapoi la nivelul primului. Apoi — și aici e tot filtrul —
@@ -290,10 +294,10 @@ un pattern care nu e perfect."</p>
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 1, DA — capul în suport, umărul drept pe pivot</text>
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<text x="30" y="193.6" fill="#6a3d9a">pivot monthly 40.00</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="249.6" fill="#b06000">suport monthly 36.00</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="193.6" fill="#6a3d9a">pivot monthly 40.00</text>
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@@ -426,7 +430,7 @@ volumul scade la fiecare picior, deci exact cazul în care nu intri.</p>
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 1, NU — triple bottom la al 4-lea test</text>
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<text x="672" y="230.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">baza testată de 3 ori: 31.00</text>
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@@ -537,8 +541,8 @@ să închidă peste doji-ul de dedesubt.</p>
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 2, DA — trigger valid din umărul drept</text>
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<text x="229.5" y="152.6" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">umărul drept: 11 bare de consolidare</text>
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<text x="30" y="159.6" fill="#6a3d9a">vârful consolidării 63.30</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="159.6" fill="#6a3d9a">vârful consolidării 63.30</text>
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@@ -724,13 +728,18 @@ prețul încă nu e acolo, dar e pe drum încet […] să te ții să facă new
<p>Cu alte cuvinte: volumul rupe înaintea prețului. Dacă volumul face minime tot
mai joase în timp ce prețul încă ține consolidarea, ai un candidat de short, nu
de long — oricât de frumos arată patternul.</p>
<p>Regula se citește pe o <strong>histogramă cu semn</strong> (on balance volume sau o
histogramă de volum instituțional), nu pe barele brute de volum: „sub swing
low-ul de aici" presupune o linie de zero și minime care se pot compara între
ele. De aceea panoul de jos al diagramei următoare e desenat altfel decât cel de
la trigger-ul valid — acolo barele brute ajung, aici nu.</p>
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 2, NU — breakout de preț fără breakout de volum</text>
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<text x="30" y="148.8" fill="#c00">baza 58.60</text>
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@@ -779,36 +788,37 @@ de long — oricât de frumos arată patternul.</p>
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<text x="24" y="244.8" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="500.0" y="200.8" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji</text>
<text x="526.0" y="50.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">închide peste consolidare, dar volumul e praf</text>
<text x="370.0" y="196.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">volumul face minime tot mai joase</text>
<text x="526.0" y="50.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">închide peste consolidare, dar volumul e deja sub zero</text>
<text x="344.0" y="213.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">histograma rupe sub propriul swing low, de trei ori</text>
<text x="642.0" y="238.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">breakdown</text>
<text x="24" y="361" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Prețul arată identic cu diagrama de deasupra; diferă panoul de volum. False breakout.</text>
<text x="24" y="361" fill="#555">Exemplu construit. Prețul e identic cu al diagramei de deasupra; panoul de jos e histograma cu semn, nu volumul brut.</text>
</svg></p>
<h2 id="pasul-3-stopul-o-treime-din-inaltimea-capumar-drept-primul-p">Pasul 3 — Stopul: o treime din înălțimea cap–umăr drept (primul P)</h2>
<p>Măsori două lucruri și împarți la trei. Întâi, înălțimea H: de la low-ul capului
@@ -835,14 +845,14 @@ treime, de la bază la vârf o treime […] 1x3 din înălțimea cap–umăr dre
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 3, stopul — H de la cap la umărul drept, apoi o treime</text>
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<text x="672" y="171.2" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">umăr drept 58.50</text>
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<text x="30" y="255.7" fill="#6a3d9a">cap 52.00 — baza lui H</text>
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<text x="672" y="227.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL minim 54.17 = cap + H/3</text>
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<text x="30" y="86.7" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00; distanța până la SL e R</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="255.7" fill="#6a3d9a">cap 52.00 — baza lui H</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="233.5" x2="686" y2="233.5" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="227.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL cel mai sus permis: 54.17 = cap + H/3</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="92.7" x2="686" y2="92.7" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30.0" y="86.7" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00; distanța până la SL e R</text>
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<rect x="53.0" y="144.7" width="10" height="19.5" fill="#c00"/>
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@@ -922,21 +932,27 @@ e stopul în jos.</p>
lecția, și e importantă: <strong>nu măsori de la extremele patternului, ci din
interiorul gâtului.</strong> „Nu e bine să măsor de la low-ul de aici, că măsori
distanța de stop loss și target de profit; măsoară din interiorul gâtului pe
aici, iau un average." Pe diagrama de mai jos linia gâtului e media celor două
maxime, nu cel mai sus dintre ele.</p>
aici, iau un average." Pe diagrama de mai jos linia gâtului e trasată <strong>din
interiorul gâtului</strong>, la 63.00 — adică sub cele mai de sus vârfuri ale zonei,
care ating 63.30. Nu e media vârfurilor, și nu există o formulă rostită care să
o reproducă: „un average" din interiorul gâtului e tot ce spune lecția. Când
reconstruiești tu patternul, nivelul ăsta e o alegere a ta de câteva zecimi, iar
TP2 se mișcă exact cu ea.</p>
<!--SVG:pas4_tinte-->
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 421" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 4, țintele — TP1 = R, TP2 = proiecția gâtului</text>
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<text x="30" y="346.8" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
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<text x="30" y="216.8" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00</text>
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<text x="30" y="240.8" fill="#6a3d9a">linia gâtului 63.00, media celor două vârfuri</text>
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<text x="30" y="108.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = gât + înălțimea HS</text>
<line x1="24" y1="92.8" x2="686" y2="92.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30" y="86.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP1 75.83 = intrare + R</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="378.8" x2="686" y2="378.8" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="372.8" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">capul 52.00 = baza înălțimii HS</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="346.8" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="216.8" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="240.8" fill="#6a3d9a">linia gâtului 63.00, din interiorul gâtului (nu de la vârfuri)</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="114.8" x2="686" y2="114.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="30.0" y="108.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = gât + înălțimea HS (63.00 − 52.00 = 11.00)</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="86.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP1 75.83 = intrare + R</text>
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<text x="640" y="207" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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@@ -996,8 +1012,9 @@ maxime, nu cel mai sus dintre ele.</p>
Autorul o spune de trei ori, cu exemple: „În unele situații s-ar putea ca, de
fapt, TP2, conform HS răsturnat cum am zis eu aici, să fie un pic mai sus decât
TP1 […] sau să fie mai jos. Noi măsurând așa, o să constatați că de fapt TP1 e
mai mare decât TP2." Și, în cele mai multe cazuri, se suprapun: „o să cădeți pe
TP1 egal cu [stopul], ar putea să fie exact TP2." De ce depinde: „de mărimea
mai mare decât TP2." Și uneori coincid: „o să cădeți pe TP1 egal cu [stopul],
<strong>ar putea</strong> să fie exact TP2." („Ar putea" e al lui — e o posibilitate, nu o
frecvență.) De ce depinde: „de mărimea
HS-ului, de time frame și așa mai departe."</p>
<p>Pe exemplul construit, TP2 iese la 74.00 și TP1 la 75.83 — TP1 peste TP2, cu
mai puțin de 2 unități între ele. Practic înseamnă: <strong>nu alegi între ele, le
@@ -1035,7 +1052,8 @@ ceea ce e exact rezultatul pe care îl apără în citatul de mai sus.</p>
califici contul foarte repede […] sau poți să-l [arzi] în două tranzacții, dacă
intri cu poziții mari."</p>
<p><strong>Completare proprie, legată de pasul 3:</strong> cu R la 16,7% din preț (cazul din
exemplul construit), 1% risc pe un cont de 10.000 înseamnă 100 de dolari risc,
exemplul construit, unde candela de breakout e mare — vezi rezerva de la pasul
3), 1% risc pe un cont de 10.000 înseamnă 100 de dolari risc,
deci o poziție de circa 600 de dolari — mai puțin de 10 acțiuni la 65. Nu e o
limitare a strategiei, e aritmetica stopurilor mari. Dacă vrei poziții mai mari
cu același risc, ai nevoie de patternul pe un timeframe mai mic, unde H e mai
@@ -1052,14 +1070,16 @@ retest."</p>
consolidare, că asta e locul crimei. Poți să retestezi și până jos, dar deja
dacă retestează până jos, e periculos să facă break-down."</p>
<!--SVG:retest_da-->
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 519" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 511" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Retestul, DA — se oprește în jumătatea de sus</text>
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<text x="47.0" y="244.2" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">consolidarea</text>
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<rect x="47.0" y="257.2" width="292.0" height="110.0" fill="#6a3d9a" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
<text x="47.0" y="252.2" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">consolidarea</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="257.2" x2="686" y2="257.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="251.2" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">vârful consolidării 53.70 = locul crimei</text>
<line x1="24" y1="312.2" x2="686" y2="312.2" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="306.2" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">jumătatea consolidării 51.20</text>
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<text x="672" y="306.2" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">jumătatea consolidării 51.20 = (53.70 + 48.70) / 2</text>
<line x1="24.0" y1="367.2" x2="686" y2="367.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="361.2" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">baza consolidării 48.70</text>
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@@ -1098,31 +1118,31 @@ dacă retestează până jos, e periculos să facă break-down."</p>
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<rect x="592.0" y="74.6" width="12" height="33.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="502.0" y="413.0" width="12" height="64.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="592.0" y="444.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<text x="24" y="401.2" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<rect x="82.0" y="435.7" width="12" height="33.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="142.0" y="440.0" width="12" height="29.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="172.0" y="434.9" width="12" height="34.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="202.0" y="437.1" width="12" height="32.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="262.0" y="434.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="292.0" y="436.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="472.0" y="448.8" width="12" height="20.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<rect x="502.0" y="405.0" width="12" height="64.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="592.0" y="436.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
<text x="24" y="393.2" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="358.0" y="182.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">breakout</text>
<text x="448.0" y="325.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">retest, se oprește peste jumătate</text>
<text x="478.0" y="348.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji aici: a doua intrare</text>
<text x="24" y="507" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Volum mic pe retest, mare pe repornire: nu vin vânzători noi.</text>
<text x="24" y="499" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Volum mic pe retest, mare pe repornire: nu vin vânzători noi.</text>
</svg></p>
<p>Deci: retest până la jumătatea consolidării = normal, intri. Retest care trece
sub jumătate și se apropie de bază = semn de avertizare; sub bază, ideea s-a
@@ -1130,13 +1150,13 @@ inversat — „să cadă sub consolidare și atunci se shortează".</p>
<!--SVG:retest_nu-->
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 387" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Retestul, NU — trece sub jumătate și rupe baza</text>
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<text x="47.0" y="94.0" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">aceeași consolidare</text>
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<text x="47.0" y="102.0" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">aceeași consolidare</text>
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<text x="672" y="101.0" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">vârful consolidării 53.70</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="144.5" x2="686" y2="144.5" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="138.5" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">jumătatea consolidării 51.20</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="182.0" x2="686" y2="182.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
<text x="672" y="176.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">baza 48.70</text>
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@@ -1230,8 +1250,8 @@ Aproximativ la 51, adică în zona suportului."</p>
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 456" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Varianta short — XLF, ascending wedge</text>
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<text x="30" y="289.5" fill="#1a5fb4">ținta rostită în lecție: 51</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="289.5" fill="#1a5fb4">ținta rostită în lecție: 51</text>
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<text x="639" y="168" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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@@ -1488,6 +1508,6 @@ se poate reține din ele:</p>
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rising-wedge.asp">Investopedia — Rising Wedge</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp">Investopedia — Short Squeeze</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/onbalancevolume.asp">Investopedia — On-Balance Volume (OBV)</a></li>
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