MODUL 5: 24 de reparatii pe cele doua strategii, dupa verificare

Opt erau blocante, adica un cititor ar fi executat gresit pe cont:

- 56% era legat de o intrare la 133 care da de fapt 35,3%; cifra se propaga in
  dimensionarea pozitiei. Acum spune ca 56% e rostit separat si ca raportul nu
  se verifica.
- "2/3 taie jumatate din risc" era fals (29,3% vs 35,3%).
- definitia lui buy doji se contrazicea cu regula de 4 luni din acelasi
  document.
- diagrama de trail arata stopul deasupra pretului: liniile traversau tot
  graficul, deci in stanga stateau peste candele. Acum fiecare porneste din
  swing low-ul care o declanseaza, cu cele patru swing low-uri marcate.
- linia gatului era data ca "media celor doua varfuri", ceea ce nu reproduce
  63.00 pe propriul desen; e din interiorul gatului.
- singura regula mecanica de "nu intra" nu era desenata cu mecanismul ei:
  panoul de volum avea bare egale de la o baza, in loc de histograma cu semn.
- "SL minim 54.17" se citea invers decat intelege textul: e pretul cel mai
  sus permis, nu stopul cel mai stramt.
- lectura "TP2 vine inaintea lui TP1" era prezentata ca geometrie in doua
  diagrame, desi fraza-sursa e neinteligibila si sursa sprijina la fel de bine
  varianta in care se recalculeaza si TP si SL. Acum e marcata ca lectura
  chiar acolo unde e folosita, cu varianta alternativa alaturi.

svg_candles are trei adaugiri optionale (Level.i0, Level.label_dy,
Chart.vol_zero) cerute de reparatiile de mai sus; selftest-ul trece si
diagramele existente nu se schimba daca nu sunt regenerate.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ThN7ixZrowca8aTGrK1MUJ
This commit is contained in:
Claude Agent
2026-10-02 02:35:51 +00:00
parent 0dd358802d
commit c198cd0a7b
7 changed files with 1184 additions and 945 deletions

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@@ -5,7 +5,8 @@ MICIS cumpără un **buy doji** sau un **buy hammer** apărut pe **weekly sau
monthly**, după un downtrend de 5-8 candele, de preferință dintr-un pivot sau
suport **quarterly**. Intri în **trei tranșe** cu limit order (una la close-ul
candelei de trigger, două mai jos, în pullback), stopul stă la **2/3 din
înălțimea doji-ului**, prima țintă e la **distanța stopului** (1R), restul
înălțimea doji-ului**, prima țintă e la **distanța stopului** (1R), a doua e
același 1R recalculat pe **prețul mediu** după ce se umplu tranșele, iar restul
poziției merge pe **trail după swing low-uri**. E **doar long** — cursul spune
explicit să nu faci short cu ea. Ținta vine în **5-10 perioade**: 5-10
săptămâni dacă ai intrat pe weekly, 5-10 luni dacă ai intrat pe monthly.
@@ -16,15 +17,19 @@ vine de la investiții și S-ul de la swing" — autorul însuși ezită pe lite
spune „nici mai știu exact de ce am numit-o" așa.
Avertismentul pe care îl repetă toată lecția: **nu merg toate**. Pe weekly și
monthly stopurile sunt uriașe în procente (la NVDA, 56% distanță), iar un semnal
monthly stopurile sunt uriașe în procente (pe NVDA rostește 56%, deși cifra nu
se verifică pe nivelurile pe care le dă — vezi pasul 3), iar un semnal
ratat urmat de al doilea care merge e situația normală, nu excepția.
## Pentru cine e și pentru cine nu
E strategie de **swing trading pe perioadă lungă și de investiție** în companii
individuale. Nu se poate face day trading sau scalping cu ea, și nu merge pe
conturi de prop cu reguli de drawdown zilnic: dacă ai intrat pe weekly stai
minim 3 săptămâni, iar dacă ai intrat pe monthly „poți să stai și 2 ani, 3 ani
în tranzacție". Cursul e categoric: „dacă vrei să dai turnuri în trei zile,
câteva săptămâni — fraza-sursă e neinteligibilă aici („3 din păie de stat"),
deci „minim 3 săptămâni" e lectura mea, sprijinită de exemplul de dinainte, cu
„16% în una, două, trei, patru, cinci săptămâni" —, iar dacă ai intrat pe
monthly „poți să stai și 2 ani, 3 ani în tranzacție". Partea cu monthly e
rostită limpede; cea cu weekly nu. Cursul e categoric: „dacă vrei să dai turnuri în trei zile,
strategia asta nu merge".
Ce nu-ți trebuie: analiză fundamentală. „Nu e nevoie să știi o iotă de
@@ -39,9 +44,12 @@ să poți citi pașii fără să te oprești.
minus low) și fitile în ambele părți: deschiderea și închiderea sunt
aproximativ la același preț. Pe weekly sau monthly, o astfel de candelă poate
avea 28 de dolari înălțime, cum are cea de la NVDA mai jos.
- **Buy doji** — nu doji-ul în sine, ci candela **următoare**, care se închide
**deasupra high-ului doji-ului**. Doji-ul e setup-ul, închiderea peste el e
trigger-ul. „Cum să ai buy doji fără doji înainte?"
- **Buy doji** — nu doji-ul în sine, ci **o candelă ulterioară, în cel mult 4
perioade**, care se închide **deasupra high-ului doji-ului**. De obicei e cea
imediat următoare, dar breakout-ul mai poate veni și la a doua, a treia sau a
patra — de aceea lista de scanare se ține patru luni (vezi rutina). Doji-ul e
setup-ul, închiderea peste el e trigger-ul. „Cum să ai buy doji fără doji
înainte?"
- **Buy hammer** — același lucru, dar candela de dedesubt e un hammer: corp mic
sus, fitil lung în jos. Funcționează identic în strategia asta.
- **Marubozu** — candelă cu corp mare și fitile mici sau inexistente. Pe weekly
@@ -69,119 +77,119 @@ folosesc și la pașii 1, 2 și 4 (același doji, aceleași niveluri, ca să nu
schimbe cifrele de la o secțiune la alta).
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<text x="24" y="569.2" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="443.0" y="296.3" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ieși, nu aștepți</text>
<text x="24" y="675" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. R-urile sunt ale mele.</text>
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<text x="24" y="627.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="307.0" y="465.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
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<text x="341.0" y="550.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">se umplu limiturile</text>
<text x="443.0" y="354.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ieși, nu aștepți</text>
<text x="24" y="733" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. R-urile sunt ale mele.</text>
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Citirea, de la stânga la dreapta: downtrend de 7 candele weekly, apoi un doji
@@ -209,14 +217,14 @@ mai slabă: „ideal ar fi să vină după un downtrend sau corecție majoră".
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<text x="24" y="336.5" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="477.0" y="66.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji aici: după uptrend</text>
<text x="426.0" y="155.9" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">volum în scădere</text>
<text x="528.0" y="186.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">urmează corecția</text>
<text x="324.0" y="215.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">volum în scădere pe tot uptrend-ul</text>
<text x="528.0" y="186.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">urmează corecția, cu volum</text>
<text x="256.0" y="251.6" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">uptrend</text>
<text x="24" y="442" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. Doji-ul arată identic; ce îl descalifică e ce e în stânga lui.</text>
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@@ -483,12 +491,12 @@ lași, sau intri **manual în premarket / after hours**.
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<text x="30" y="185.8" fill="#188a3e">limit 1/3 la 155.02 = 1/3 din marubozu</text>
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@@ -600,11 +608,11 @@ dublat în preț aproape" — fără să atingă nici primul nivel de 1/3.
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 2, ladder neumplut — AMD monthly</text>
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<text x="30" y="296.9" fill="#c00">limit 1/3 la 104.67 — niciodată atins</text>
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@@ -722,15 +730,15 @@ Regula practică de alegere, din curs: pornești de la 4 candele în spate, și
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@@ -766,7 +774,7 @@ Regula practică de alegere, din curs: pornești de la 4 candele în spate, și
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Exemplul e al lui, pe NVDA monthly. Doji-ul are **28 de dolari** înălțime și
low-ul la **86**. O treime deasupra low-ului e, „aproximativ din ochi, pe la
**94**. Versus normal trebuia să-l ai la **86**" — adică varianta 2/3 taie
jumătate din risc față de stopul sub low. (Strict calculat, o treime din 28
**94**. Versus normal trebuia să-l ai la **86**" — adică, măsurat de la
close-ul de trigger de 133, stopul la 94 e la **29,3%** distanță, iar cel de
sub low, la 86, la **35,3%**. Varianta 2/3 scade riscul cu o treime din
înălțimea doji-ului, nu cu jumătate. (Strict calculat, o treime din 28
deasupra lui 86 dă 95.33; el citește 94 pe grafic. Diferența e a lui, nu o
corectez — pe monthly, un dolar nu schimbă decizia.)
Și acum partea pe care o spune direct, fără să o îmbrace: stopul ăsta e **uriaș
în procente**. Cu intrarea la **133** și stopul sub low-ul doji-ului, „ce stop
loss trebuie să ai tu aici cu prima poziție 1/3? […] chiloții la **56%** asumare
pierdere? Bă, 56%." Pe Dell spune „stop loss-ul inițial, 68%", iar pe MLM
în procente**: „ce stop loss trebuie să ai tu aici cu prima poziție 1/3? […]
chiloții la **56%** asumare pierdere? Bă, 56%."
Atenție la cifra asta, pentru că **nu se verifică** pe nivelurile pe care le
dă el. 56% e rostit separat, fără să fie legat de un preț de intrare; de la
close-ul de trigger de 133 până la 86 sunt 35,3%, nu 56%. Cel mai aproape de
56% ajungi socotind distanța ca procent din nivelul stopului (47/86 = 54,6%) —
probabil de acolo îi vine cifra, dar e o speculație a mea. Reține ordinul de
mărime („stop uriaș, de câteva zeci de procente"), nu numărul. Pe Dell spune
că stop loss-ul inițial e „68 la 100" [sic], iar pe MLM
măsoară „21%" pe varianta cu 4 candele în spate și „în loc de 21 aveai un 17" pe
varianta de 2/3. Astea nu sunt stopuri de day trading; sunt stopuri
de poziție de investiție, și de-aia pasul 6 (mărimea poziției) nu e opțional.
@@ -855,74 +872,85 @@ TP1 ăsta este egal cu TP2 inițial. Pentru că dacă tu intri la 1/3, exact câ
s-a terminat candela, TP1 e TP2. Dar pe măsură ce intri cu poziția a doua și
poziția a treia tu vei face un average." Deci TP2 e **aceeași regulă de 1R, dar
recalculată pe prețul mediu** după ce s-au umplut tranșele 2 și 3. La prima
tranșă cele două coincid; se despart abia când mediezi.
tranșă cele două coincid; se despart abia când mediezi. **Partea cu „se
despart" e lectura mea** — vezi rezerva de după diagramă.
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<text x="24" y="70" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 4, cele două ținte — weekly (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="396.0" y="87.3" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP1 = 1R pe prima tranșă (5.67)</text>
<text x="24" y="327" fill="#555">Mediind în jos, 1R se scurtează: TP2 vine înaintea lui TP1. R-urile sunt ale mele.</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="306.9" fill="#c00">SL 39.33</text>
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<text x="672" y="251.3" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">preț mediu 43.61</text>
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<text x="672" y="233.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 1/3 la 45.00</text>
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<text x="672" y="195.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP2 47.89</text>
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<text x="672" y="159.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP1 50.67</text>
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<text x="289.0" y="189.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">TP2 = 1R pe medie (4.28)</text>
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<text x="24" y="360" fill="#555">Lectura mea: mediind în jos, TP2 vine înaintea lui TP1. Fraza-sursă e neinteligibilă aici.</text>
</svg>
Pe exemplul construit se vede efectul, și e contraintuitiv: **mediind în jos,
1R se scurtează**. Prețul mediu al celor trei tranșe e 43.61, stopul 39.33, deci
1R e 4.28 și TP2 cade la 47.89 — sub TP1 de 50.67, care e 1R socotit pe prima
tranșă intrată la 45.00. Ținta vine mai repede și cu risc mai mic pe acțiune.
Cifrele astea sunt derivările mele pe exemplul construit; cursul dă regula, nu
exemplul numeric. Avertismentul lui despre asta: „o să-ți dea un average la un
**Aici e o lectură a mea, nu o regulă rostită.** Fraza-sursă e neinteligibilă
exact în punctul care contează: ea spune doar că la prima tranșă TP1 = TP2 și că
pe măsură ce intri cu tranșele 2 și 3 „o să-ți dea un average" — dar **nu spune
care dintre cele două ținte se recalculează pe medie**. Lectura pe care o
folosesc în document: TP2 e 1R socotit pe prețul mediu, deci cade sub TP1.
Varianta alternativă, cel puțin la fel de plauzibilă, e că se recalculează și
ținta și stopul pe prețul mediu („vezi cum calculezi TP-ul **și** SL-ul"), caz
în care TP1 și TP2 rămân identice și după mediere, iar „TP2 sub TP1" nu se mai
produce. Diagramele de mai sus desenează prima variantă, marcată ca lectură.
Pe lectura asta, pe exemplul construit, efectul e contraintuitiv: **mediind în
jos, 1R se scurtează**. Prețul mediu al celor trei tranșe e 43.61, stopul 39.33,
deci 1R e 4.28 și TP2 cade la 47.89 — sub TP1 de 50.67, care e 1R socotit pe
prima tranșă intrată la 45.00. Ținta vine mai repede și cu risc mai mic pe
acțiune. Cifrele astea sunt derivările mele pe exemplul construit; cursul dă
regula, nu exemplul numeric. Avertismentul lui despre asta: „o să-ți dea un average la un
moment dat […] vezi cum calculezi TP-ul și SL-ul, că o să-ți dea o medie" — cu
alte cuvinte, recalculează, nu lăsa ordinele vechi.
@@ -947,16 +975,15 @@ Trail-ul urcă pe **swing low-uri**, adică pe higher low-uri succesive.
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<text x="24" y="78" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 5, trail pe swing low — weekly (decizia a fost pe monthly)</text>
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<text x="30" y="214.4" fill="#c00">trail 1: 48.20</text>
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<text x="30" y="175.2" fill="#c00">trail 2: 53.80</text>
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<text x="672" y="214.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 1: 48.20</text>
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<text x="672" y="175.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 2: 53.80</text>
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<text x="672" y="133.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 3: 59.80</text>
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<text x="672" y="95.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 4: 65.20</text>
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<text x="551" y="132" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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@@ -1049,9 +1076,11 @@ Trail-ul urcă pe **swing low-uri**, adică pe higher low-uri succesive.
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<text x="24" y="279.6" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="290.0" y="150.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low mai sus → muți stopul</text>
<text x="24" y="386" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Stopul urcă doar la un swing low mai sus; nu coboară niciodată.</text>
<text x="154.0" y="254.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 1</text>
<text x="290.0" y="215.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 2</text>
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<text x="545.0" y="135.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 4</text>
<text x="24" y="386" fill="#555">Fiecare linie de trail pornește de la swing low-ul care o declanșează; stopul nu coboară niciodată.</text>
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De ce un timeframe mai mic și nu același: pe weekly, între două swing low-uri
@@ -1061,8 +1090,8 @@ foarte departe cu poziția („te duci cu el țeavă"), dar dacă l-ai pune pe
monthly, după o decizie luată pe monthly, n-ai muta stopul decât o dată pe
trimestru.
Cât stai, în practică, din exemplele lui: 3 săptămâni minim dacă ai intrat pe
weekly; pe Johnson & Johnson a trebuit să stai „1, 2, 3 … 12 săptămâni, și abia
Cât stai, în practică, din exemplele lui: câteva săptămâni dacă ai intrat pe
weekly (minimul de 3 e lectura mea, vezi mai sus); pe Johnson & Johnson a trebuit să stai „1, 2, 3 … 12 săptămâni, și abia
în a 13-a vedeai profitul"; pe Alibaba, 14 săptămâni. Pe monthly, 2-3 ani.
## Pasul 6 — Mărimea poziției (al doilea P)
@@ -1077,9 +1106,10 @@ real rămâne o treime din cel calculat — e în favoarea ta, nu invers. Invers
dacă dimensionezi pe prima treime și se umplu toate, ai de trei ori riscul pe
care l-ai aprobat.
Cu un stop de 56% ca la NVDA, aritmetica e brutală și merită scrisă o dată:
dacă accepți să pierzi 2% din cont și stopul e la 56% distanță, poziția nu poate
depăși ~3,5% din cont. Asta e derivarea mea, nu o cifră din curs — dar e
Cu un stop de ordinul celui de pe NVDA, aritmetica e brutală și merită scrisă o
dată: dacă accepți să pierzi 2% din cont și stopul e la 35% distanță, poziția nu
poate depăși ~5,7% din cont; la 56%, cât rostește el, ~3,5%. Astea sunt
derivările mele, nu cifre din curs — dar sunt
motivul pentru care pasul 6 nu e o formalitate pe timeframe-urile astea.
## Rutina: cum le găsești înainte să se închidă candela
@@ -1096,7 +1126,7 @@ citește candela **în formare**.
<text x="32" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">1. Scanner, pe candelă închisă</text>
<text x="32" y="86" fill="#333">doar DOJI, nu buy doji</text>
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<text x="262" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">2. Lista, 3-400 de simboluri</text>
<text x="262" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">2. Lista, 200-300 de simboluri</text>
<text x="262" y="86" fill="#333">ținută 4 luni, într-un excel</text>
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<text x="492" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">3. Radar screen</text>
@@ -1154,12 +1184,14 @@ Exemplul cu cifre e Tesla, și e instructiv pentru că arată exact ce face
alegerea stopului:
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Când nu merge — Tesla weekly</text>
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<text x="672" y="348.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">minimul de după: 214.25</text>
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<text x="539" y="241" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="341.1" fill="#b06000">low-ul hammer-ului: 217.02</text>
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<text x="672" y="366.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">minimul de după: 214.25</text>
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@@ -1208,46 +1240,40 @@ alegerea stopului:
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<text x="24" y="445.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
<text x="286.0" y="283.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy hammer — primul semnal</text>
<text x="381.0" y="262.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">al doilea semnal, acesta merge</text>
<text x="495.0" y="111.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">7 săptămâni de urcare</text>
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<text x="233.0" y="318.1" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">low-ul hammer-ului: 217.02;</text>
<text x="233.0" y="332.1" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">stopul pus sub el a fost luat</text>
<text x="24" y="481" fill="#555">Ale lui: 217.02, 214.25 și cele 7 săptămâni de după al doilea semnal; restul barelor e al meu.</text>
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<text x="343.0" y="402.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">stopul pus sub 217.02</text>
<text x="343.0" y="416.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">a fost luat aici</text>
<text x="24" y="551" fill="#555">Ale lui: 217.02, 214.25 și cele 7 săptămâni de după al doilea semnal; restul barelor e al meu.</text>
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„Uite, buy hammer-ul ăsta n-a mers, de exemplu. Acum depinde unde aveai stop
@@ -1333,7 +1359,10 @@ lui).
**Ce rămâne neclar în sursă**, fără să inventez o rezolvare: eticheta TP2 e
rostită neinteligibil („bit, bich, TPU normal"), iar lămurirea o dă doar
indirect, prin explicația cu media; și litera I din MICIS are două justificări
indirect, prin explicația cu media — nu spune care dintre ținte se recalculează
pe prețul mediu, deci „TP2 sub TP1" rămâne lectura mea, marcată ca atare pe
diagrame; cifra de 56% nu se verifică pe nivelurile rostite în același exemplu;
fraza despre cât stai pe weekly („3 din păie de stat") e neinteligibilă; și litera I din MICIS are două justificări
în același paragraf (instituțional și investiții), autorul recunoscând că nu
mai ține minte.