MODUL 5: 24 de reparatii pe cele doua strategii, dupa verificare
Opt erau blocante, adica un cititor ar fi executat gresit pe cont: - 56% era legat de o intrare la 133 care da de fapt 35,3%; cifra se propaga in dimensionarea pozitiei. Acum spune ca 56% e rostit separat si ca raportul nu se verifica. - "2/3 taie jumatate din risc" era fals (29,3% vs 35,3%). - definitia lui buy doji se contrazicea cu regula de 4 luni din acelasi document. - diagrama de trail arata stopul deasupra pretului: liniile traversau tot graficul, deci in stanga stateau peste candele. Acum fiecare porneste din swing low-ul care o declanseaza, cu cele patru swing low-uri marcate. - linia gatului era data ca "media celor doua varfuri", ceea ce nu reproduce 63.00 pe propriul desen; e din interiorul gatului. - singura regula mecanica de "nu intra" nu era desenata cu mecanismul ei: panoul de volum avea bare egale de la o baza, in loc de histograma cu semn. - "SL minim 54.17" se citea invers decat intelege textul: e pretul cel mai sus permis, nu stopul cel mai stramt. - lectura "TP2 vine inaintea lui TP1" era prezentata ca geometrie in doua diagrame, desi fraza-sursa e neinteligibila si sursa sprijina la fel de bine varianta in care se recalculeaza si TP si SL. Acum e marcata ca lectura chiar acolo unde e folosita, cu varianta alternativa alaturi. svg_candles are trei adaugiri optionale (Level.i0, Level.label_dy, Chart.vol_zero) cerute de reparatiile de mai sus; selftest-ul trece si diagramele existente nu se schimba daca nu sunt regenerate. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ThN7ixZrowca8aTGrK1MUJ
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Claude Agent
@@ -38,7 +38,8 @@
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monthly</strong>, după un downtrend de 5-8 candele, de preferință dintr-un pivot sau
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suport <strong>quarterly</strong>. Intri în <strong>trei tranșe</strong> cu limit order (una la close-ul
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candelei de trigger, două mai jos, în pullback), stopul stă la <strong>2/3 din
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înălțimea doji-ului</strong>, prima țintă e la <strong>distanța stopului</strong> (1R), restul
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înălțimea doji-ului</strong>, prima țintă e la <strong>distanța stopului</strong> (1R), a doua e
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același 1R recalculat pe <strong>prețul mediu</strong> după ce se umplu tranșele, iar restul
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poziției merge pe <strong>trail după swing low-uri</strong>. E <strong>doar long</strong> — cursul spune
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explicit să nu faci short cu ea. Ținta vine în <strong>5-10 perioade</strong>: 5-10
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săptămâni dacă ai intrat pe weekly, 5-10 luni dacă ai intrat pe monthly.</p>
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@@ -47,14 +48,18 @@ pentru că vine de la […] instituțional […] vine de la corecție […] I-ul
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vine de la investiții și S-ul de la swing" — autorul însuși ezită pe litere, și
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spune „nici mai știu exact de ce am numit-o" așa.</p>
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<p>Avertismentul pe care îl repetă toată lecția: <strong>nu merg toate</strong>. Pe weekly și
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monthly stopurile sunt uriașe în procente (la NVDA, 56% distanță), iar un semnal
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monthly stopurile sunt uriașe în procente (pe NVDA rostește 56%, deși cifra nu
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se verifică pe nivelurile pe care le dă — vezi pasul 3), iar un semnal
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ratat urmat de al doilea care merge e situația normală, nu excepția.</p>
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<h2 id="pentru-cine-e-si-pentru-cine-nu">Pentru cine e și pentru cine nu</h2>
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<p>E strategie de <strong>swing trading pe perioadă lungă și de investiție</strong> în companii
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individuale. Nu se poate face day trading sau scalping cu ea, și nu merge pe
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conturi de prop cu reguli de drawdown zilnic: dacă ai intrat pe weekly stai
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minim 3 săptămâni, iar dacă ai intrat pe monthly „poți să stai și 2 ani, 3 ani
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în tranzacție". Cursul e categoric: „dacă vrei să dai turnuri în trei zile,
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câteva săptămâni — fraza-sursă e neinteligibilă aici („3 din păie de stat"),
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deci „minim 3 săptămâni" e lectura mea, sprijinită de exemplul de dinainte, cu
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„16% în una, două, trei, patru, cinci săptămâni" —, iar dacă ai intrat pe
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monthly „poți să stai și 2 ani, 3 ani în tranzacție". Partea cu monthly e
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rostită limpede; cea cu weekly nu. Cursul e categoric: „dacă vrei să dai turnuri în trei zile,
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strategia asta nu merge".</p>
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<p>Ce nu-ți trebuie: analiză fundamentală. „Nu e nevoie să știi o iotă de
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fundamental […] doar tehnic poți tranzacționa cu strategia asta." Dacă știi
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@@ -67,9 +72,12 @@ să poți citi pașii fără să te oprești.</p>
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minus low) și fitile în ambele părți: deschiderea și închiderea sunt
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aproximativ la același preț. Pe weekly sau monthly, o astfel de candelă poate
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avea 28 de dolari înălțime, cum are cea de la NVDA mai jos.</li>
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<li><strong>Buy doji</strong> — nu doji-ul în sine, ci candela <strong>următoare</strong>, care se închide
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<strong>deasupra high-ului doji-ului</strong>. Doji-ul e setup-ul, închiderea peste el e
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trigger-ul. „Cum să ai buy doji fără doji înainte?"</li>
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<li><strong>Buy doji</strong> — nu doji-ul în sine, ci <strong>o candelă ulterioară, în cel mult 4
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perioade</strong>, care se închide <strong>deasupra high-ului doji-ului</strong>. De obicei e cea
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imediat următoare, dar breakout-ul mai poate veni și la a doua, a treia sau a
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patra — de aceea lista de scanare se ține patru luni (vezi rutina). Doji-ul e
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setup-ul, închiderea peste el e trigger-ul. „Cum să ai buy doji fără doji
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înainte?"</li>
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<li><strong>Buy hammer</strong> — același lucru, dar candela de dedesubt e un hammer: corp mic
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sus, fitil lung în jos. Funcționează identic în strategia asta.</li>
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<li><strong>Marubozu</strong> — candelă cu corp mare și fitile mici sau inexistente. Pe weekly
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@@ -96,119 +104,119 @@ să poți citi pașii fără să te oprești.</p>
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folosesc și la pașii 1, 2 și 4 (același doji, aceleași niveluri, ca să nu se
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schimbe cifrele de la o secțiune la alta).</p>
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MICIS, tot trade-ul — weekly (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="161.5" y="241.0" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">downtrend 7 candele</text>
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<text x="30" y="519.3" fill="#c00">SL 39.33 = 2/3 din doji</text>
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<text x="672" y="417.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 1/3 la close 45.00</text>
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<text x="30" y="462.2" fill="#188a3e">limit 1/3 la 42.50</text>
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<text x="672" y="442.2" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">preț mediu 43.61</text>
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<text x="672" y="365.2" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP2 47.89</text>
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<text x="672" y="315.1" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP1 50.67</text>
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<text x="443.0" y="296.3" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ieși, nu aștepți</text>
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<text x="24" y="675" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. R-urile sunt ale mele.</text>
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<text x="24" y="90" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MICIS, tot trade-ul — weekly (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="161.5" y="119.2" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">downtrend 7 candele</text>
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<text x="297.5" y="413.9" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">fereastra de intrare</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="505.5" fill="#188a3e">limit 1/3 la 43.33</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="520.4" fill="#188a3e">limit 1/3 la 42.50</text>
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<text x="672" y="500.4" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">preț mediu 43.61</text>
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<text x="672" y="423.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP2 47.89 — lectura mea</text>
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<text x="672" y="373.3" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP1 50.67</text>
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<text x="24" y="627.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="290.0" y="621.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji</text>
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<text x="307.0" y="465.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji</text>
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<text x="137.0" y="188.2" fill="#888" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">consolidare</text>
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<text x="341.0" y="550.0" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">se umplu limiturile</text>
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<text x="443.0" y="354.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ieși, nu aștepți</text>
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<text x="24" y="733" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. R-urile sunt ale mele.</text>
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</svg></p>
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<p>Citirea, de la stânga la dreapta: downtrend de 7 candele weekly, apoi un doji
|
||||
(38.00-42.00), apoi candela de trigger care închide la 45.00, peste high-ul
|
||||
@@ -231,14 +239,14 @@ mai slabă: „ideal ar fi să vină după un downtrend sau corecție majoră".<
|
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<!--SVG:pasul1_da-->
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 1, DA — doji weekly pe pivotul quarterly</text>
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<text x="30" y="398.0" fill="#b06000">pivot quarterly 36.00</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="398.0" fill="#b06000">pivot quarterly 36.00</text>
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<text x="672" y="382.0" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">low-ul doji-ului 38.00</text>
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@@ -263,32 +271,32 @@ mai slabă: „ideal ar fi să vină după un downtrend sau corecție majoră".<
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<text x="24" y="336.5" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="477.0" y="66.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji aici: după uptrend</text>
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<text x="426.0" y="155.9" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">volum în scădere</text>
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<text x="528.0" y="186.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">urmează corecția</text>
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<text x="324.0" y="215.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">volum în scădere pe tot uptrend-ul</text>
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<text x="528.0" y="186.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">urmează corecția, cu volum</text>
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<text x="24" y="442" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. Doji-ul arată identic; ce îl descalifică e ce e în stânga lui.</text>
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</svg></p>
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@@ -498,12 +506,12 @@ lași, sau intri <strong>manual în premarket / after hours</strong>.</p>
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<!--SVG:pasul2_jnj-->
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 2, ladder umplut — JNJ weekly</text>
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<text x="672" y="161.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 1/3 la close 157.47</text>
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<text x="30" y="185.8" fill="#188a3e">limit 1/3 la 155.02 = 1/3 din marubozu</text>
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<text x="672" y="198.0" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">limit 1/3 la 1/2 din marubozu</text>
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<text x="672" y="185.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">limit 1/3 la 155.02 = 1/3 din marubozu</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="198.0" fill="#6a3d9a">limit 1/3 la 1/2 din marubozu</text>
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@@ -610,11 +618,11 @@ dublat în preț aproape" — fără să atingă nici primul nivel de 1/3.</p>
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<!--SVG:pasul2_amd-->
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 2, ladder neumplut — AMD monthly</text>
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<text x="672" y="289.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 1/3 la close 108.00</text>
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<text x="30" y="296.9" fill="#c00">limit 1/3 la 104.67 — niciodată atins</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="296.9" fill="#c00">limit 1/3 — niciodată atins</text>
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<text x="672" y="123.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">unde a ajuns: 180</text>
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<text x="558" y="232" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
|
||||
@@ -727,15 +735,15 @@ de toleranța voastră la risc și de experiență":</p>
|
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<!--SVG:pasul3_nvda-->
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 620" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="74" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 3, stopul — NVDA monthly</text>
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<text x="352.0" y="143.4" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">downtrend 5 candele</text>
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<text x="30" y="311.2" fill="#c00">sub low-ul doji-ului: 86</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="292.0" fill="#c00">SL 2/3 din doji: 94</text>
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<rect x="352.0" y="143.6" width="96.0" height="152.8" fill="#c00" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="352.0" y="138.6" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">downtrend 5 candele</text>
|
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<text x="30.0" y="311.2" fill="#c00">sub low-ul doji-ului: 86</text>
|
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<line x1="24.0" y1="298.0" x2="686" y2="298.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30.0" y="292.0" fill="#c00">SL 2/3 din doji: 94</text>
|
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<line x1="24.0" y1="204.4" x2="686" y2="204.4" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="198.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 1/3 la close: 133</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="86.8" x2="686" y2="86.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="86.8" x2="686" y2="86.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="80.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">ținta rostită: 182</text>
|
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<text x="577" y="232" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
|
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@@ -771,7 +779,7 @@ de toleranța voastră la risc și de experiență":</p>
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<line x1="362.0" y1="156.4" x2="362.0" y2="199.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<line x1="362.0" y1="151.6" x2="362.0" y2="199.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="357.0" y="163.6" width="10" height="28.8" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="381.0" y1="156.4" x2="381.0" y2="199.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="376.0" y="163.6" width="10" height="28.8" fill="#c00"/>
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||||
@@ -831,14 +839,22 @@ de toleranța voastră la risc și de experiență":</p>
|
||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
<p>Exemplul e al lui, pe NVDA monthly. Doji-ul are <strong>28 de dolari</strong> înălțime și
|
||||
low-ul la <strong>86</strong>. O treime deasupra low-ului e, „aproximativ din ochi, pe la
|
||||
<strong>94</strong>. Versus normal trebuia să-l ai la <strong>86</strong>" — adică varianta 2/3 taie
|
||||
jumătate din risc față de stopul sub low. (Strict calculat, o treime din 28
|
||||
<strong>94</strong>. Versus normal trebuia să-l ai la <strong>86</strong>" — adică, măsurat de la
|
||||
close-ul de trigger de 133, stopul la 94 e la <strong>29,3%</strong> distanță, iar cel de
|
||||
sub low, la 86, la <strong>35,3%</strong>. Varianta 2/3 scade riscul cu o treime din
|
||||
înălțimea doji-ului, nu cu jumătate. (Strict calculat, o treime din 28
|
||||
deasupra lui 86 dă 95.33; el citește 94 pe grafic. Diferența e a lui, nu o
|
||||
corectez — pe monthly, un dolar nu schimbă decizia.)</p>
|
||||
<p>Și acum partea pe care o spune direct, fără să o îmbrace: stopul ăsta e <strong>uriaș
|
||||
în procente</strong>. Cu intrarea la <strong>133</strong> și stopul sub low-ul doji-ului, „ce stop
|
||||
loss trebuie să ai tu aici cu prima poziție 1/3? […] chiloții la <strong>56%</strong> asumare
|
||||
pierdere? Bă, 56%." Pe Dell spune „stop loss-ul inițial, 68%", iar pe MLM
|
||||
în procente</strong>: „ce stop loss trebuie să ai tu aici cu prima poziție 1/3? […]
|
||||
chiloții la <strong>56%</strong> asumare pierdere? Bă, 56%."</p>
|
||||
<p>Atenție la cifra asta, pentru că <strong>nu se verifică</strong> pe nivelurile pe care le
|
||||
dă el. 56% e rostit separat, fără să fie legat de un preț de intrare; de la
|
||||
close-ul de trigger de 133 până la 86 sunt 35,3%, nu 56%. Cel mai aproape de
|
||||
56% ajungi socotind distanța ca procent din nivelul stopului (47/86 = 54,6%) —
|
||||
probabil de acolo îi vine cifra, dar e o speculație a mea. Reține ordinul de
|
||||
mărime („stop uriaș, de câteva zeci de procente"), nu numărul. Pe Dell spune
|
||||
că stop loss-ul inițial e „68 la 100" [sic], iar pe MLM
|
||||
măsoară „21%" pe varianta cu 4 candele în spate și „în loc de 21 aveai un 17" pe
|
||||
varianta de 2/3. Astea nu sunt stopuri de day trading; sunt stopuri
|
||||
de poziție de investiție, și de-aia pasul 6 (mărimea poziției) nu e opțional.</p>
|
||||
@@ -855,72 +871,82 @@ TP1 ăsta este egal cu TP2 inițial. Pentru că dacă tu intri la 1/3, exact câ
|
||||
s-a terminat candela, TP1 e TP2. Dar pe măsură ce intri cu poziția a doua și
|
||||
poziția a treia tu vei face un average." Deci TP2 e <strong>aceeași regulă de 1R, dar
|
||||
recalculată pe prețul mediu</strong> după ce s-au umplut tranșele 2 și 3. La prima
|
||||
tranșă cele două coincid; se despart abia când mediezi.</p>
|
||||
tranșă cele două coincid; se despart abia când mediezi. <strong>Partea cu „se
|
||||
despart" e lectura mea</strong> — vezi rezerva de după diagramă.</p>
|
||||
<!--SVG:pasul4_tinte-->
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 339" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 372" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="24" y="70" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 4, cele două ținte — weekly (exemplu construit)</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="279.8" x2="686" y2="279.8" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="273.8" fill="#c00">SL 39.33</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="224.1" x2="686" y2="224.1" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="218.1" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">preț mediu 43.61</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="206.1" x2="686" y2="206.1" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="200.1" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 1 la 45.00</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="168.5" x2="686" y2="168.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="162.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP2 47.89</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="132.3" x2="686" y2="132.3" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="126.3" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP1 50.67</text>
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<line x1="60.0" y1="135.9" x2="60.0" y2="172.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="53.0" y="141.1" width="14" height="26.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="88.0" y1="161.9" x2="88.0" y2="204.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="81.0" y="167.1" width="14" height="32.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="116.0" y1="194.4" x2="116.0" y2="237.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="109.0" y="199.6" width="14" height="32.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="144.0" y1="226.9" x2="144.0" y2="256.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="137.0" y="232.1" width="14" height="19.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="172.0" y1="246.4" x2="172.0" y2="277.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="165.0" y="251.6" width="14" height="20.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="200.0" y1="245.1" x2="200.0" y2="297.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="193.0" y="271.1" width="14" height="1.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="228.0" y1="206.1" x2="228.0" y2="271.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="221.0" y="206.1" width="14" height="65.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="256.0" y1="202.2" x2="256.0" y2="232.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="249.0" y="206.1" width="14" height="23.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="284.0" y1="226.8" x2="284.0" y2="241.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="277.0" y="229.4" width="14" height="7.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="312.0" y1="219.7" x2="312.0" y2="241.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="305.0" y="224.2" width="14" height="13.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="340.0" y1="204.1" x2="340.0" y2="228.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="333.0" y="208.7" width="14" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="368.0" y1="188.5" x2="368.0" y2="213.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="361.0" y="193.1" width="14" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="396.0" y1="163.8" x2="396.0" y2="197.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="389.0" y="168.4" width="14" height="24.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="424.0" y1="146.9" x2="424.0" y2="172.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="417.0" y="151.4" width="14" height="16.9" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="452.0" y1="127.4" x2="452.0" y2="156.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="445.0" y="131.9" width="14" height="19.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="480.0" y1="110.5" x2="480.0" y2="136.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="473.0" y="115.1" width="14" height="16.9" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="508.0" y1="110.5" x2="508.0" y2="128.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="501.0" y="115.1" width="14" height="9.1" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="536.0" y1="97.5" x2="536.0" y2="128.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="529.0" y="102.1" width="14" height="22.1" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="564.0" y1="78.0" x2="564.0" y2="106.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="557.0" y="82.6" width="14" height="19.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="293.0" y1="168.5" x2="321.0" y2="168.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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<polygon points="329.0,168.5 321.0,172.5 321.0,164.5" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<text x="289.0" y="172.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">TP2 = 1R pe medie (4.28)</text>
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<line x1="396.0" y1="92.3" x2="396.0" y2="120.3" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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<polygon points="396.0,128.3 392.0,120.3 400.0,120.3" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<text x="396.0" y="87.3" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP1 = 1R pe prima tranșă (5.67)</text>
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<text x="24" y="327" fill="#555">Mediind în jos, 1R se scurtează: TP2 vine înaintea lui TP1. R-urile sunt ale mele.</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="312.9" x2="686" y2="312.9" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30.0" y="306.9" fill="#c00">SL 39.33</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="257.3" x2="686" y2="257.3" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="251.3" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">preț mediu 43.61</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="239.2" x2="686" y2="239.2" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="233.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 1/3 la 45.00</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="201.6" x2="686" y2="201.6" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="195.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP2 47.89</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="165.5" x2="686" y2="165.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="159.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP1 50.67</text>
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<line x1="60.0" y1="78.0" x2="60.0" y2="133.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="53.0" y="83.2" width="14" height="45.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="88.0" y1="123.5" x2="88.0" y2="179.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="81.0" y="128.7" width="14" height="45.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="116.0" y1="169.0" x2="116.0" y2="224.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="109.0" y="174.2" width="14" height="45.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="144.0" y1="214.5" x2="144.0" y2="270.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="137.0" y="219.7" width="14" height="45.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="172.0" y1="260.0" x2="172.0" y2="310.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="165.0" y="265.2" width="14" height="40.3" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="200.0" y1="278.2" x2="200.0" y2="330.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="193.0" y="304.2" width="14" height="1.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="228.0" y1="239.2" x2="228.0" y2="304.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="221.0" y="239.2" width="14" height="65.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="256.0" y1="235.3" x2="256.0" y2="265.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="249.0" y="239.2" width="14" height="23.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="284.0" y1="260.0" x2="284.0" y2="274.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="277.0" y="262.6" width="14" height="7.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="312.0" y1="252.8" x2="312.0" y2="274.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="305.0" y="257.4" width="14" height="13.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="340.0" y1="237.2" x2="340.0" y2="261.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="333.0" y="241.8" width="14" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="368.0" y1="221.6" x2="368.0" y2="246.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="361.0" y="226.2" width="14" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="396.0" y1="196.9" x2="396.0" y2="230.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="389.0" y="201.5" width="14" height="24.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="424.0" y1="180.0" x2="424.0" y2="206.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="417.0" y="184.6" width="14" height="16.9" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="452.0" y1="160.5" x2="452.0" y2="189.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="445.0" y="165.1" width="14" height="19.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="480.0" y1="143.6" x2="480.0" y2="169.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="473.0" y="148.2" width="14" height="16.9" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="508.0" y1="143.6" x2="508.0" y2="161.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="501.0" y="148.2" width="14" height="9.1" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="536.0" y1="130.6" x2="536.0" y2="161.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="529.0" y="135.2" width="14" height="22.1" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="564.0" y1="111.1" x2="564.0" y2="139.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="557.0" y="115.7" width="14" height="19.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="293.0" y1="185.6" x2="321.7" y2="198.4" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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<polygon points="329.0,201.6 320.1,202.0 323.3,194.7" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
||||
<text x="289.0" y="189.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">TP2 = 1R pe medie (4.28)</text>
|
||||
<line x1="396.0" y1="125.5" x2="396.0" y2="153.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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<polygon points="396.0,161.5 392.0,153.5 400.0,153.5" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<text x="396.0" y="120.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP1 = 1R pe prima tranșă (5.67)</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="360" fill="#555">Lectura mea: mediind în jos, TP2 vine înaintea lui TP1. Fraza-sursă e neinteligibilă aici.</text>
|
||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
<p>Pe exemplul construit se vede efectul, și e contraintuitiv: <strong>mediind în jos,
|
||||
1R se scurtează</strong>. Prețul mediu al celor trei tranșe e 43.61, stopul 39.33, deci
|
||||
1R e 4.28 și TP2 cade la 47.89 — sub TP1 de 50.67, care e 1R socotit pe prima
|
||||
tranșă intrată la 45.00. Ținta vine mai repede și cu risc mai mic pe acțiune.
|
||||
Cifrele astea sunt derivările mele pe exemplul construit; cursul dă regula, nu
|
||||
exemplul numeric. Avertismentul lui despre asta: „o să-ți dea un average la un
|
||||
<p><strong>Aici e o lectură a mea, nu o regulă rostită.</strong> Fraza-sursă e neinteligibilă
|
||||
exact în punctul care contează: ea spune doar că la prima tranșă TP1 = TP2 și că
|
||||
pe măsură ce intri cu tranșele 2 și 3 „o să-ți dea un average" — dar <strong>nu spune
|
||||
care dintre cele două ținte se recalculează pe medie</strong>. Lectura pe care o
|
||||
folosesc în document: TP2 e 1R socotit pe prețul mediu, deci cade sub TP1.
|
||||
Varianta alternativă, cel puțin la fel de plauzibilă, e că se recalculează și
|
||||
ținta și stopul pe prețul mediu („vezi cum calculezi TP-ul <strong>și</strong> SL-ul"), caz
|
||||
în care TP1 și TP2 rămân identice și după mediere, iar „TP2 sub TP1" nu se mai
|
||||
produce. Diagramele de mai sus desenează prima variantă, marcată ca lectură.</p>
|
||||
<p>Pe lectura asta, pe exemplul construit, efectul e contraintuitiv: <strong>mediind în
|
||||
jos, 1R se scurtează</strong>. Prețul mediu al celor trei tranșe e 43.61, stopul 39.33,
|
||||
deci 1R e 4.28 și TP2 cade la 47.89 — sub TP1 de 50.67, care e 1R socotit pe
|
||||
prima tranșă intrată la 45.00. Ținta vine mai repede și cu risc mai mic pe
|
||||
acțiune. Cifrele astea sunt derivările mele pe exemplul construit; cursul dă
|
||||
regula, nu exemplul numeric. Avertismentul lui despre asta: „o să-ți dea un average la un
|
||||
moment dat […] vezi cum calculezi TP-ul și SL-ul, că o să-ți dea o medie" — cu
|
||||
alte cuvinte, recalculează, nu lăsa ordinele vechi.</p>
|
||||
<p>Cât aștepți: ținta vine „între 5 și 10 perioade. Dacă sunt pe weekly, ar trebui
|
||||
@@ -940,16 +966,15 @@ trebuit să mai pun un slash."</p>
|
||||
<!--SVG:pasul5_trail-->
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 398" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
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<text x="24" y="78" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 5, trail pe swing low — weekly (decizia a fost pe monthly)</text>
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<text x="30" y="214.4" fill="#c00">trail 1: 48.20</text>
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<text x="30" y="175.2" fill="#c00">trail 2: 53.80</text>
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<line x1="149.5" y1="220.4" x2="686" y2="220.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="214.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 1: 48.20</text>
|
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<text x="672" y="175.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 2: 53.80</text>
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<text x="672" y="133.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 3: 59.80</text>
|
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<line x1="540.5" y1="101.4" x2="686" y2="101.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="95.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 4: 65.20</text>
|
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<polyline points="375.0,189.8 392.0,183.9 409.0,178.8 426.0,174.4 443.0,170.0 460.0,165.5 477.0,160.3 494.0,154.3 511.0,148.2 528.0,142.7 545.0,138.0" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="551" y="132" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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@@ -1042,9 +1067,11 @@ trebuit să mai pun un slash."</p>
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<rect x="540.5" y="285.6" width="9" height="70.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<text x="24" y="279.6" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||||
<text x="154.0" y="254.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low</text>
|
||||
<text x="290.0" y="150.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low mai sus → muți stopul</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="386" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Stopul urcă doar la un swing low mai sus; nu coboară niciodată.</text>
|
||||
<text x="154.0" y="254.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 1</text>
|
||||
<text x="290.0" y="215.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 2</text>
|
||||
<text x="426.0" y="173.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 3</text>
|
||||
<text x="545.0" y="135.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 4</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="386" fill="#555">Fiecare linie de trail pornește de la swing low-ul care o declanșează; stopul nu coboară niciodată.</text>
|
||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
<p>De ce un timeframe mai mic și nu același: pe weekly, între două swing low-uri
|
||||
pot trece șase săptămâni — „ăsta era ultimul trail și următorul trail s-a format
|
||||
@@ -1052,8 +1079,8 @@ peste […] șase săptămâni de la trail-ul ăsta". Un trail atât de larg te
|
||||
foarte departe cu poziția („te duci cu el țeavă"), dar dacă l-ai pune pe
|
||||
monthly, după o decizie luată pe monthly, n-ai muta stopul decât o dată pe
|
||||
trimestru.</p>
|
||||
<p>Cât stai, în practică, din exemplele lui: 3 săptămâni minim dacă ai intrat pe
|
||||
weekly; pe Johnson & Johnson a trebuit să stai „1, 2, 3 … 12 săptămâni, și abia
|
||||
<p>Cât stai, în practică, din exemplele lui: câteva săptămâni dacă ai intrat pe
|
||||
weekly (minimul de 3 e lectura mea, vezi mai sus); pe Johnson & Johnson a trebuit să stai „1, 2, 3 … 12 săptămâni, și abia
|
||||
în a 13-a vedeai profitul"; pe Alibaba, 14 săptămâni. Pe monthly, 2-3 ani.</p>
|
||||
<h2 id="pasul-6-marimea-pozitiei-al-doilea-p">Pasul 6 — Mărimea poziției (al doilea P)</h2>
|
||||
<p><strong>Maxim 1-2-3% din cont</strong>, și „când zic mărimea totală a poziției, mă refer la
|
||||
@@ -1065,9 +1092,10 @@ pe prima tranșă. „Când calculezi stop loss-ul, să nu reprezinte 2% din tot
|
||||
real rămâne o treime din cel calculat — e în favoarea ta, nu invers. Invers,
|
||||
dacă dimensionezi pe prima treime și se umplu toate, ai de trei ori riscul pe
|
||||
care l-ai aprobat.</p>
|
||||
<p>Cu un stop de 56% ca la NVDA, aritmetica e brutală și merită scrisă o dată:
|
||||
dacă accepți să pierzi 2% din cont și stopul e la 56% distanță, poziția nu poate
|
||||
depăși ~3,5% din cont. Asta e derivarea mea, nu o cifră din curs — dar e
|
||||
<p>Cu un stop de ordinul celui de pe NVDA, aritmetica e brutală și merită scrisă o
|
||||
dată: dacă accepți să pierzi 2% din cont și stopul e la 35% distanță, poziția nu
|
||||
poate depăși ~5,7% din cont; la 56%, cât rostește el, ~3,5%. Astea sunt
|
||||
derivările mele, nu cifre din curs — dar sunt
|
||||
motivul pentru care pasul 6 nu e o formalitate pe timeframe-urile astea.</p>
|
||||
<h2 id="rutina-cum-le-gasesti-inainte-sa-se-inchida-candela">Rutina: cum le găsești înainte să se închidă candela</h2>
|
||||
<p>Partea cea mai practică a lecției, și cea pe care o repetă la final de două ori.
|
||||
@@ -1082,7 +1110,7 @@ citește candela <strong>în formare</strong>.</p>
|
||||
<text x="32" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">1. Scanner, pe candelă închisă</text>
|
||||
<text x="32" y="86" fill="#333">doar DOJI, nu buy doji</text>
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<text x="262" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">2. Lista, 3-400 de simboluri</text>
|
||||
<text x="262" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">2. Lista, 200-300 de simboluri</text>
|
||||
<text x="262" y="86" fill="#333">ținută 4 luni, într-un excel</text>
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<text x="492" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">3. Radar screen</text>
|
||||
@@ -1135,12 +1163,14 @@ volum pozitiv).</p>
|
||||
<p>Exemplul cu cifre e Tesla, și e instructiv pentru că arată exact ce face
|
||||
alegerea stopului:</p>
|
||||
<!--SVG:nu_merge-->
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 493" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 563" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Când nu merge — Tesla weekly</text>
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<text x="672" y="348.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">minimul de după: 214.25</text>
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<text x="539" y="241" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="341.1" fill="#b06000">low-ul hammer-ului: 217.02</text>
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<text x="672" y="366.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">minimul de după: 214.25</text>
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<text x="501" y="244" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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@@ -1189,46 +1219,40 @@ alegerea stopului:</p>
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||||
<text x="24" y="375.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
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<rect x="490.0" y="485.6" width="10" height="35.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="445.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||||
<text x="286.0" y="283.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy hammer — primul semnal</text>
|
||||
<text x="381.0" y="262.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">al doilea semnal, acesta merge</text>
|
||||
<text x="495.0" y="111.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">7 săptămâni de urcare</text>
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<text x="233.0" y="318.1" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">low-ul hammer-ului: 217.02;</text>
|
||||
<text x="233.0" y="332.1" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">stopul pus sub el a fost luat</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="481" fill="#555">Ale lui: 217.02, 214.25 și cele 7 săptămâni de după al doilea semnal; restul barelor e al meu.</text>
|
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<text x="343.0" y="402.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">stopul pus sub 217.02</text>
|
||||
<text x="343.0" y="416.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">a fost luat aici</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="551" fill="#555">Ale lui: 217.02, 214.25 și cele 7 săptămâni de după al doilea semnal; restul barelor e al meu.</text>
|
||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
<p>„Uite, buy hammer-ul ăsta n-a mers, de exemplu. Acum depinde unde aveai stop
|
||||
loss-ul. Dacă low-ul ăsta de aici e <strong>217.02</strong>, low-ul ăsta de aici este
|
||||
@@ -1308,7 +1332,10 @@ rutină și diagrama de divergență (forma lor; cifrele de volum sunt citirile
|
||||
lui).</p>
|
||||
<p><strong>Ce rămâne neclar în sursă</strong>, fără să inventez o rezolvare: eticheta TP2 e
|
||||
rostită neinteligibil („bit, bich, TPU normal"), iar lămurirea o dă doar
|
||||
indirect, prin explicația cu media; și litera I din MICIS are două justificări
|
||||
indirect, prin explicația cu media — nu spune care dintre ținte se recalculează
|
||||
pe prețul mediu, deci „TP2 sub TP1" rămâne lectura mea, marcată ca atare pe
|
||||
diagrame; cifra de 56% nu se verifică pe nivelurile rostite în același exemplu;
|
||||
fraza despre cât stai pe weekly („3 din păie de stat") e neinteligibilă; și litera I din MICIS are două justificări
|
||||
în același paragraf (instituțional și investiții), autorul recunoscând că nu
|
||||
mai ține minte.</p>
|
||||
<h2 id="referinte">Referințe</h2>
|
||||
@@ -1318,6 +1345,6 @@ mai ține minte.</p>
|
||||
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/scaling.asp">Investopedia — Scaling In and Out</a> — intrarea în tranșe și efectul pe prețul mediu, mecanismul din pasul 2.</li>
|
||||
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trailingstop.asp">Investopedia — Trailing Stop</a> — trail-ul pe swing low din pasul 5.</li>
|
||||
<li><a href="https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/what-are-pivot-points-and-how-do-you-use-them-in-trading-230302">IG — Pivot Points</a> — cum se calculează pivoții pe perioadă (de unde vin PPQ și PPM).</li>
|
||||
</ul><nav class="pager"><a class="prev" href="03_patternuri_complexe_partea_a_patra.html">← 03. #3 — Patternuri complexe (partea 4): wedge descendent, wedge ascendent, bull flag, bear flag</a><a class="up" href="../index.html#06_MODUL_5">↑ index</a></nav>
|
||||
</ul><nav class="pager"><a class="prev" href="03_patternuri_complexe_partea_a_patra.html">← 03. #3 — Patternuri complexe (partea 4): wedge descendent, wedge ascendent, bull flag, bear flag</a><a class="up" href="../index.html#06_MODUL_5">↑ index</a><a class="next" href="05_strategia_8_dhrt.html">05. #5 — Strategia 8: DHRT (Head & Shoulders răsturnat, discreționar) →</a></nav>
|
||||
</body>
|
||||
</html>
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -5,7 +5,8 @@ MICIS cumpără un **buy doji** sau un **buy hammer** apărut pe **weekly sau
|
||||
monthly**, după un downtrend de 5-8 candele, de preferință dintr-un pivot sau
|
||||
suport **quarterly**. Intri în **trei tranșe** cu limit order (una la close-ul
|
||||
candelei de trigger, două mai jos, în pullback), stopul stă la **2/3 din
|
||||
înălțimea doji-ului**, prima țintă e la **distanța stopului** (1R), restul
|
||||
înălțimea doji-ului**, prima țintă e la **distanța stopului** (1R), a doua e
|
||||
același 1R recalculat pe **prețul mediu** după ce se umplu tranșele, iar restul
|
||||
poziției merge pe **trail după swing low-uri**. E **doar long** — cursul spune
|
||||
explicit să nu faci short cu ea. Ținta vine în **5-10 perioade**: 5-10
|
||||
săptămâni dacă ai intrat pe weekly, 5-10 luni dacă ai intrat pe monthly.
|
||||
@@ -16,15 +17,19 @@ vine de la investiții și S-ul de la swing" — autorul însuși ezită pe lite
|
||||
spune „nici mai știu exact de ce am numit-o" așa.
|
||||
|
||||
Avertismentul pe care îl repetă toată lecția: **nu merg toate**. Pe weekly și
|
||||
monthly stopurile sunt uriașe în procente (la NVDA, 56% distanță), iar un semnal
|
||||
monthly stopurile sunt uriașe în procente (pe NVDA rostește 56%, deși cifra nu
|
||||
se verifică pe nivelurile pe care le dă — vezi pasul 3), iar un semnal
|
||||
ratat urmat de al doilea care merge e situația normală, nu excepția.
|
||||
|
||||
## Pentru cine e și pentru cine nu
|
||||
E strategie de **swing trading pe perioadă lungă și de investiție** în companii
|
||||
individuale. Nu se poate face day trading sau scalping cu ea, și nu merge pe
|
||||
conturi de prop cu reguli de drawdown zilnic: dacă ai intrat pe weekly stai
|
||||
minim 3 săptămâni, iar dacă ai intrat pe monthly „poți să stai și 2 ani, 3 ani
|
||||
în tranzacție". Cursul e categoric: „dacă vrei să dai turnuri în trei zile,
|
||||
câteva săptămâni — fraza-sursă e neinteligibilă aici („3 din păie de stat"),
|
||||
deci „minim 3 săptămâni" e lectura mea, sprijinită de exemplul de dinainte, cu
|
||||
„16% în una, două, trei, patru, cinci săptămâni" —, iar dacă ai intrat pe
|
||||
monthly „poți să stai și 2 ani, 3 ani în tranzacție". Partea cu monthly e
|
||||
rostită limpede; cea cu weekly nu. Cursul e categoric: „dacă vrei să dai turnuri în trei zile,
|
||||
strategia asta nu merge".
|
||||
|
||||
Ce nu-ți trebuie: analiză fundamentală. „Nu e nevoie să știi o iotă de
|
||||
@@ -39,9 +44,12 @@ să poți citi pașii fără să te oprești.
|
||||
minus low) și fitile în ambele părți: deschiderea și închiderea sunt
|
||||
aproximativ la același preț. Pe weekly sau monthly, o astfel de candelă poate
|
||||
avea 28 de dolari înălțime, cum are cea de la NVDA mai jos.
|
||||
- **Buy doji** — nu doji-ul în sine, ci candela **următoare**, care se închide
|
||||
**deasupra high-ului doji-ului**. Doji-ul e setup-ul, închiderea peste el e
|
||||
trigger-ul. „Cum să ai buy doji fără doji înainte?"
|
||||
- **Buy doji** — nu doji-ul în sine, ci **o candelă ulterioară, în cel mult 4
|
||||
perioade**, care se închide **deasupra high-ului doji-ului**. De obicei e cea
|
||||
imediat următoare, dar breakout-ul mai poate veni și la a doua, a treia sau a
|
||||
patra — de aceea lista de scanare se ține patru luni (vezi rutina). Doji-ul e
|
||||
setup-ul, închiderea peste el e trigger-ul. „Cum să ai buy doji fără doji
|
||||
înainte?"
|
||||
- **Buy hammer** — același lucru, dar candela de dedesubt e un hammer: corp mic
|
||||
sus, fitil lung în jos. Funcționează identic în strategia asta.
|
||||
- **Marubozu** — candelă cu corp mare și fitile mici sau inexistente. Pe weekly
|
||||
@@ -69,119 +77,119 @@ folosesc și la pașii 1, 2 și 4 (același doji, aceleași niveluri, ca să nu
|
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schimbe cifrele de la o secțiune la alta).
|
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<text x="30" y="519.3" fill="#c00">SL 39.33 = 2/3 din doji</text>
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<text x="672" y="442.2" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">preț mediu 43.61</text>
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<text x="672" y="315.1" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP1 50.67</text>
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<text x="24" y="569.2" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="443.0" y="296.3" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">ieși, nu aștepți</text>
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<text x="24" y="675" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. R-urile sunt ale mele.</text>
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<text x="24" y="90" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">MICIS, tot trade-ul — weekly (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="577.5" fill="#c00">SL 39.33 = 2/3 din doji</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="505.5" fill="#188a3e">limit 1/3 la 43.33</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="520.4" fill="#188a3e">limit 1/3 la 42.50</text>
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<text x="672" y="500.4" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">preț mediu 43.61</text>
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<text x="672" y="423.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP2 47.89 — lectura mea</text>
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<text x="24" y="627.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
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Citirea, de la stânga la dreapta: downtrend de 7 candele weekly, apoi un doji
|
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@@ -209,14 +217,14 @@ mai slabă: „ideal ar fi să vină după un downtrend sau corecție majoră".
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<!--SVG:pasul1_da-->
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@@ -241,32 +249,32 @@ mai slabă: „ideal ar fi să vină după un downtrend sau corecție majoră".
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<text x="24" y="336.5" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<text x="477.0" y="66.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji aici: după uptrend</text>
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<text x="426.0" y="155.9" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">volum în scădere</text>
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<text x="528.0" y="186.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">urmează corecția</text>
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<text x="324.0" y="215.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">volum în scădere pe tot uptrend-ul</text>
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<text x="528.0" y="186.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">urmează corecția, cu volum</text>
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<text x="24" y="442" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. Doji-ul arată identic; ce îl descalifică e ce e în stânga lui.</text>
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</svg>
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@@ -483,12 +491,12 @@ lași, sau intri **manual în premarket / after hours**.
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<!--SVG:pasul2_jnj-->
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 2, ladder umplut — JNJ weekly</text>
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<text x="672" y="161.3" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 1/3 la close 157.47</text>
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<text x="30" y="185.8" fill="#188a3e">limit 1/3 la 155.02 = 1/3 din marubozu</text>
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<text x="672" y="198.0" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">limit 1/3 la 1/2 din marubozu</text>
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<text x="672" y="185.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">limit 1/3 la 155.02 = 1/3 din marubozu</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="198.0" fill="#6a3d9a">limit 1/3 la 1/2 din marubozu</text>
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@@ -600,11 +608,11 @@ dublat în preț aproape" — fără să atingă nici primul nivel de 1/3.
|
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<!--SVG:pasul2_amd-->
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 2, ladder neumplut — AMD monthly</text>
|
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<text x="672" y="289.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 1/3 la close 108.00</text>
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<text x="30" y="296.9" fill="#c00">limit 1/3 la 104.67 — niciodată atins</text>
|
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<text x="30.0" y="296.9" fill="#c00">limit 1/3 — niciodată atins</text>
|
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<text x="672" y="123.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">unde a ajuns: 180</text>
|
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<text x="558" y="232" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
|
||||
@@ -722,15 +730,15 @@ Regula practică de alegere, din curs: pornești de la 4 candele în spate, și
|
||||
<!--SVG:pasul3_nvda-->
|
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<svg viewBox="0 0 700 620" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="74" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 3, stopul — NVDA monthly</text>
|
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<text x="352.0" y="143.4" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">downtrend 5 candele</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="311.2" fill="#c00">sub low-ul doji-ului: 86</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="292.0" fill="#c00">SL 2/3 din doji: 94</text>
|
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<text x="352.0" y="138.6" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">downtrend 5 candele</text>
|
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<text x="30.0" y="311.2" fill="#c00">sub low-ul doji-ului: 86</text>
|
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<text x="30.0" y="292.0" fill="#c00">SL 2/3 din doji: 94</text>
|
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<line x1="24.0" y1="204.4" x2="686" y2="204.4" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="198.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 1/3 la close: 133</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="86.8" x2="686" y2="86.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
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<line x1="24.0" y1="86.8" x2="686" y2="86.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="80.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">ținta rostită: 182</text>
|
||||
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<text x="577" y="232" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
|
||||
@@ -766,7 +774,7 @@ Regula practică de alegere, din curs: pornești de la 4 candele în spate, și
|
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<rect x="376.0" y="163.6" width="10" height="28.8" fill="#c00"/>
|
||||
@@ -827,15 +835,24 @@ Regula practică de alegere, din curs: pornești de la 4 candele în spate, și
|
||||
|
||||
Exemplul e al lui, pe NVDA monthly. Doji-ul are **28 de dolari** înălțime și
|
||||
low-ul la **86**. O treime deasupra low-ului e, „aproximativ din ochi, pe la
|
||||
**94**. Versus normal trebuia să-l ai la **86**" — adică varianta 2/3 taie
|
||||
jumătate din risc față de stopul sub low. (Strict calculat, o treime din 28
|
||||
**94**. Versus normal trebuia să-l ai la **86**" — adică, măsurat de la
|
||||
close-ul de trigger de 133, stopul la 94 e la **29,3%** distanță, iar cel de
|
||||
sub low, la 86, la **35,3%**. Varianta 2/3 scade riscul cu o treime din
|
||||
înălțimea doji-ului, nu cu jumătate. (Strict calculat, o treime din 28
|
||||
deasupra lui 86 dă 95.33; el citește 94 pe grafic. Diferența e a lui, nu o
|
||||
corectez — pe monthly, un dolar nu schimbă decizia.)
|
||||
|
||||
Și acum partea pe care o spune direct, fără să o îmbrace: stopul ăsta e **uriaș
|
||||
în procente**. Cu intrarea la **133** și stopul sub low-ul doji-ului, „ce stop
|
||||
loss trebuie să ai tu aici cu prima poziție 1/3? […] chiloții la **56%** asumare
|
||||
pierdere? Bă, 56%." Pe Dell spune „stop loss-ul inițial, 68%", iar pe MLM
|
||||
în procente**: „ce stop loss trebuie să ai tu aici cu prima poziție 1/3? […]
|
||||
chiloții la **56%** asumare pierdere? Bă, 56%."
|
||||
|
||||
Atenție la cifra asta, pentru că **nu se verifică** pe nivelurile pe care le
|
||||
dă el. 56% e rostit separat, fără să fie legat de un preț de intrare; de la
|
||||
close-ul de trigger de 133 până la 86 sunt 35,3%, nu 56%. Cel mai aproape de
|
||||
56% ajungi socotind distanța ca procent din nivelul stopului (47/86 = 54,6%) —
|
||||
probabil de acolo îi vine cifra, dar e o speculație a mea. Reține ordinul de
|
||||
mărime („stop uriaș, de câteva zeci de procente"), nu numărul. Pe Dell spune
|
||||
că stop loss-ul inițial e „68 la 100" [sic], iar pe MLM
|
||||
măsoară „21%" pe varianta cu 4 candele în spate și „în loc de 21 aveai un 17" pe
|
||||
varianta de 2/3. Astea nu sunt stopuri de day trading; sunt stopuri
|
||||
de poziție de investiție, și de-aia pasul 6 (mărimea poziției) nu e opțional.
|
||||
@@ -855,74 +872,85 @@ TP1 ăsta este egal cu TP2 inițial. Pentru că dacă tu intri la 1/3, exact câ
|
||||
s-a terminat candela, TP1 e TP2. Dar pe măsură ce intri cu poziția a doua și
|
||||
poziția a treia tu vei face un average." Deci TP2 e **aceeași regulă de 1R, dar
|
||||
recalculată pe prețul mediu** după ce s-au umplut tranșele 2 și 3. La prima
|
||||
tranșă cele două coincid; se despart abia când mediezi.
|
||||
tranșă cele două coincid; se despart abia când mediezi. **Partea cu „se
|
||||
despart" e lectura mea** — vezi rezerva de după diagramă.
|
||||
|
||||
<!--SVG:pasul4_tinte-->
|
||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 700 339" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 700 372" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="24" y="70" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 4, cele două ținte — weekly (exemplu construit)</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="279.8" x2="686" y2="279.8" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="273.8" fill="#c00">SL 39.33</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="224.1" x2="686" y2="224.1" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="218.1" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">preț mediu 43.61</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="206.1" x2="686" y2="206.1" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="200.1" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 1 la 45.00</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="168.5" x2="686" y2="168.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="162.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP2 47.89</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="132.3" x2="686" y2="132.3" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="126.3" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP1 50.67</text>
|
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<line x1="60.0" y1="135.9" x2="60.0" y2="172.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="53.0" y="141.1" width="14" height="26.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="88.0" y1="161.9" x2="88.0" y2="204.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="81.0" y="167.1" width="14" height="32.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="116.0" y1="194.4" x2="116.0" y2="237.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="109.0" y="199.6" width="14" height="32.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="144.0" y1="226.9" x2="144.0" y2="256.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="137.0" y="232.1" width="14" height="19.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="172.0" y1="246.4" x2="172.0" y2="277.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="165.0" y="251.6" width="14" height="20.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="200.0" y1="245.1" x2="200.0" y2="297.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="193.0" y="271.1" width="14" height="1.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="228.0" y1="206.1" x2="228.0" y2="271.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="221.0" y="206.1" width="14" height="65.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="256.0" y1="202.2" x2="256.0" y2="232.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="249.0" y="206.1" width="14" height="23.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="284.0" y1="226.8" x2="284.0" y2="241.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="277.0" y="229.4" width="14" height="7.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="312.0" y1="219.7" x2="312.0" y2="241.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="305.0" y="224.2" width="14" height="13.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="340.0" y1="204.1" x2="340.0" y2="228.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="333.0" y="208.7" width="14" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="368.0" y1="188.5" x2="368.0" y2="213.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="361.0" y="193.1" width="14" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="396.0" y1="163.8" x2="396.0" y2="197.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="389.0" y="168.4" width="14" height="24.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="424.0" y1="146.9" x2="424.0" y2="172.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="417.0" y="151.4" width="14" height="16.9" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="452.0" y1="127.4" x2="452.0" y2="156.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="445.0" y="131.9" width="14" height="19.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="480.0" y1="110.5" x2="480.0" y2="136.5" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="473.0" y="115.1" width="14" height="16.9" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="508.0" y1="110.5" x2="508.0" y2="128.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="501.0" y="115.1" width="14" height="9.1" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="536.0" y1="97.5" x2="536.0" y2="128.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="529.0" y="102.1" width="14" height="22.1" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="564.0" y1="78.0" x2="564.0" y2="106.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="557.0" y="82.6" width="14" height="19.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="293.0" y1="168.5" x2="321.0" y2="168.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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<polygon points="329.0,168.5 321.0,172.5 321.0,164.5" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<text x="289.0" y="172.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">TP2 = 1R pe medie (4.28)</text>
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<line x1="396.0" y1="92.3" x2="396.0" y2="120.3" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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<polygon points="396.0,128.3 392.0,120.3 400.0,120.3" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
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<text x="396.0" y="87.3" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP1 = 1R pe prima tranșă (5.67)</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="327" fill="#555">Mediind în jos, 1R se scurtează: TP2 vine înaintea lui TP1. R-urile sunt ale mele.</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="312.9" x2="686" y2="312.9" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30.0" y="306.9" fill="#c00">SL 39.33</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="257.3" x2="686" y2="257.3" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="251.3" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">preț mediu 43.61</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="239.2" x2="686" y2="239.2" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="233.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 1/3 la 45.00</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="201.6" x2="686" y2="201.6" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="672" y="195.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP2 47.89</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="165.5" x2="686" y2="165.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="672" y="159.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP1 50.67</text>
|
||||
<line x1="60.0" y1="78.0" x2="60.0" y2="133.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="53.0" y="83.2" width="14" height="45.5" fill="#c00"/>
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||||
<line x1="88.0" y1="123.5" x2="88.0" y2="179.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="81.0" y="128.7" width="14" height="45.5" fill="#c00"/>
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||||
<line x1="116.0" y1="169.0" x2="116.0" y2="224.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="109.0" y="174.2" width="14" height="45.5" fill="#c00"/>
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||||
<line x1="144.0" y1="214.5" x2="144.0" y2="270.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="137.0" y="219.7" width="14" height="45.5" fill="#c00"/>
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||||
<line x1="172.0" y1="260.0" x2="172.0" y2="310.7" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="165.0" y="265.2" width="14" height="40.3" fill="#c00"/>
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||||
<line x1="200.0" y1="278.2" x2="200.0" y2="330.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="193.0" y="304.2" width="14" height="1.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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||||
<line x1="228.0" y1="239.2" x2="228.0" y2="304.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="221.0" y="239.2" width="14" height="65.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="256.0" y1="235.3" x2="256.0" y2="265.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="249.0" y="239.2" width="14" height="23.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="284.0" y1="260.0" x2="284.0" y2="274.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="277.0" y="262.6" width="14" height="7.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="312.0" y1="252.8" x2="312.0" y2="274.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="305.0" y="257.4" width="14" height="13.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="340.0" y1="237.2" x2="340.0" y2="261.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="333.0" y="241.8" width="14" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="368.0" y1="221.6" x2="368.0" y2="246.4" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="361.0" y="226.2" width="14" height="15.6" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="396.0" y1="196.9" x2="396.0" y2="230.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="389.0" y="201.5" width="14" height="24.7" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="424.0" y1="180.0" x2="424.0" y2="206.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="417.0" y="184.6" width="14" height="16.9" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||||
<line x1="452.0" y1="160.5" x2="452.0" y2="189.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||||
<rect x="445.0" y="165.1" width="14" height="19.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
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||||
<line x1="480.0" y1="143.6" x2="480.0" y2="169.6" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||||
<rect x="473.0" y="148.2" width="14" height="16.9" fill="#188a3e"/>
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||||
<line x1="508.0" y1="143.6" x2="508.0" y2="161.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||||
<rect x="501.0" y="148.2" width="14" height="9.1" fill="#c00"/>
|
||||
<line x1="536.0" y1="130.6" x2="536.0" y2="161.9" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||||
<rect x="529.0" y="135.2" width="14" height="22.1" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||||
<line x1="564.0" y1="111.1" x2="564.0" y2="139.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="557.0" y="115.7" width="14" height="19.5" fill="#188a3e"/>
|
||||
<line x1="293.0" y1="185.6" x2="321.7" y2="198.4" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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||||
<polygon points="329.0,201.6 320.1,202.0 323.3,194.7" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
||||
<text x="289.0" y="189.6" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">TP2 = 1R pe medie (4.28)</text>
|
||||
<line x1="396.0" y1="125.5" x2="396.0" y2="153.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.8"/>
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<polygon points="396.0,161.5 392.0,153.5 400.0,153.5" fill="#1a5fb4"/>
|
||||
<text x="396.0" y="120.5" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">TP1 = 1R pe prima tranșă (5.67)</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="360" fill="#555">Lectura mea: mediind în jos, TP2 vine înaintea lui TP1. Fraza-sursă e neinteligibilă aici.</text>
|
||||
</svg>
|
||||
|
||||
Pe exemplul construit se vede efectul, și e contraintuitiv: **mediind în jos,
|
||||
1R se scurtează**. Prețul mediu al celor trei tranșe e 43.61, stopul 39.33, deci
|
||||
1R e 4.28 și TP2 cade la 47.89 — sub TP1 de 50.67, care e 1R socotit pe prima
|
||||
tranșă intrată la 45.00. Ținta vine mai repede și cu risc mai mic pe acțiune.
|
||||
Cifrele astea sunt derivările mele pe exemplul construit; cursul dă regula, nu
|
||||
exemplul numeric. Avertismentul lui despre asta: „o să-ți dea un average la un
|
||||
**Aici e o lectură a mea, nu o regulă rostită.** Fraza-sursă e neinteligibilă
|
||||
exact în punctul care contează: ea spune doar că la prima tranșă TP1 = TP2 și că
|
||||
pe măsură ce intri cu tranșele 2 și 3 „o să-ți dea un average" — dar **nu spune
|
||||
care dintre cele două ținte se recalculează pe medie**. Lectura pe care o
|
||||
folosesc în document: TP2 e 1R socotit pe prețul mediu, deci cade sub TP1.
|
||||
Varianta alternativă, cel puțin la fel de plauzibilă, e că se recalculează și
|
||||
ținta și stopul pe prețul mediu („vezi cum calculezi TP-ul **și** SL-ul"), caz
|
||||
în care TP1 și TP2 rămân identice și după mediere, iar „TP2 sub TP1" nu se mai
|
||||
produce. Diagramele de mai sus desenează prima variantă, marcată ca lectură.
|
||||
|
||||
Pe lectura asta, pe exemplul construit, efectul e contraintuitiv: **mediind în
|
||||
jos, 1R se scurtează**. Prețul mediu al celor trei tranșe e 43.61, stopul 39.33,
|
||||
deci 1R e 4.28 și TP2 cade la 47.89 — sub TP1 de 50.67, care e 1R socotit pe
|
||||
prima tranșă intrată la 45.00. Ținta vine mai repede și cu risc mai mic pe
|
||||
acțiune. Cifrele astea sunt derivările mele pe exemplul construit; cursul dă
|
||||
regula, nu exemplul numeric. Avertismentul lui despre asta: „o să-ți dea un average la un
|
||||
moment dat […] vezi cum calculezi TP-ul și SL-ul, că o să-ți dea o medie" — cu
|
||||
alte cuvinte, recalculează, nu lăsa ordinele vechi.
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -947,16 +975,15 @@ Trail-ul urcă pe **swing low-uri**, adică pe higher low-uri succesive.
|
||||
<!--SVG:pasul5_trail-->
|
||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 700 398" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="24" y="78" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 5, trail pe swing low — weekly (decizia a fost pe monthly)</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="220.4" x2="686" y2="220.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="214.4" fill="#c00">trail 1: 48.20</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="181.2" x2="686" y2="181.2" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="175.2" fill="#c00">trail 2: 53.80</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="139.2" x2="686" y2="139.2" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<line x1="149.5" y1="220.4" x2="686" y2="220.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="214.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 1: 48.20</text>
|
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<line x1="285.5" y1="181.2" x2="686" y2="181.2" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="175.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 2: 53.80</text>
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<line x1="421.5" y1="139.2" x2="686" y2="139.2" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="133.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 3: 59.80</text>
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<line x1="540.5" y1="101.4" x2="686" y2="101.4" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="95.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">trail 4: 65.20</text>
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<polyline points="375.0,189.8 392.0,183.9 409.0,178.8 426.0,174.4 443.0,170.0 460.0,165.5 477.0,160.3 494.0,154.3 511.0,148.2 528.0,142.7 545.0,138.0" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="551" y="132" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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<rect x="47.5" y="241.4" width="9" height="15.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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@@ -1049,9 +1076,11 @@ Trail-ul urcă pe **swing low-uri**, adică pe higher low-uri succesive.
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<rect x="540.5" y="285.6" width="9" height="70.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<text x="24" y="279.6" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
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<text x="154.0" y="254.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low</text>
|
||||
<text x="290.0" y="150.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low mai sus → muți stopul</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="386" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Stopul urcă doar la un swing low mai sus; nu coboară niciodată.</text>
|
||||
<text x="154.0" y="254.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 1</text>
|
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<text x="290.0" y="215.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 2</text>
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<text x="426.0" y="173.2" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 3</text>
|
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<text x="545.0" y="135.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">swing low 4</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="386" fill="#555">Fiecare linie de trail pornește de la swing low-ul care o declanșează; stopul nu coboară niciodată.</text>
|
||||
</svg>
|
||||
|
||||
De ce un timeframe mai mic și nu același: pe weekly, între două swing low-uri
|
||||
@@ -1061,8 +1090,8 @@ foarte departe cu poziția („te duci cu el țeavă"), dar dacă l-ai pune pe
|
||||
monthly, după o decizie luată pe monthly, n-ai muta stopul decât o dată pe
|
||||
trimestru.
|
||||
|
||||
Cât stai, în practică, din exemplele lui: 3 săptămâni minim dacă ai intrat pe
|
||||
weekly; pe Johnson & Johnson a trebuit să stai „1, 2, 3 … 12 săptămâni, și abia
|
||||
Cât stai, în practică, din exemplele lui: câteva săptămâni dacă ai intrat pe
|
||||
weekly (minimul de 3 e lectura mea, vezi mai sus); pe Johnson & Johnson a trebuit să stai „1, 2, 3 … 12 săptămâni, și abia
|
||||
în a 13-a vedeai profitul"; pe Alibaba, 14 săptămâni. Pe monthly, 2-3 ani.
|
||||
|
||||
## Pasul 6 — Mărimea poziției (al doilea P)
|
||||
@@ -1077,9 +1106,10 @@ real rămâne o treime din cel calculat — e în favoarea ta, nu invers. Invers
|
||||
dacă dimensionezi pe prima treime și se umplu toate, ai de trei ori riscul pe
|
||||
care l-ai aprobat.
|
||||
|
||||
Cu un stop de 56% ca la NVDA, aritmetica e brutală și merită scrisă o dată:
|
||||
dacă accepți să pierzi 2% din cont și stopul e la 56% distanță, poziția nu poate
|
||||
depăși ~3,5% din cont. Asta e derivarea mea, nu o cifră din curs — dar e
|
||||
Cu un stop de ordinul celui de pe NVDA, aritmetica e brutală și merită scrisă o
|
||||
dată: dacă accepți să pierzi 2% din cont și stopul e la 35% distanță, poziția nu
|
||||
poate depăși ~5,7% din cont; la 56%, cât rostește el, ~3,5%. Astea sunt
|
||||
derivările mele, nu cifre din curs — dar sunt
|
||||
motivul pentru care pasul 6 nu e o formalitate pe timeframe-urile astea.
|
||||
|
||||
## Rutina: cum le găsești înainte să se închidă candela
|
||||
@@ -1096,7 +1126,7 @@ citește candela **în formare**.
|
||||
<text x="32" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">1. Scanner, pe candelă închisă</text>
|
||||
<text x="32" y="86" fill="#333">doar DOJI, nu buy doji</text>
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<text x="262" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">2. Lista, 3-400 de simboluri</text>
|
||||
<text x="262" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">2. Lista, 200-300 de simboluri</text>
|
||||
<text x="262" y="86" fill="#333">ținută 4 luni, într-un excel</text>
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<text x="492" y="66" fill="#1a5fb4" style="font-weight:bold">3. Radar screen</text>
|
||||
@@ -1154,12 +1184,14 @@ Exemplul cu cifre e Tesla, și e instructiv pentru că arată exact ce face
|
||||
alegerea stopului:
|
||||
|
||||
<!--SVG:nu_merge-->
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<svg viewBox="0 0 700 563" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="48" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Când nu merge — Tesla weekly</text>
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<text x="672" y="348.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">minimul de după: 214.25</text>
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<text x="539" y="241" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="347.1" x2="686" y2="347.1" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30.0" y="341.1" fill="#b06000">low-ul hammer-ului: 217.02</text>
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<text x="672" y="366.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">minimul de după: 214.25</text>
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<polyline points="419.0,238.1 438.0,244.4 457.0,248.3 476.0,250.1 495.0,250.1" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="501" y="244" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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<rect x="53.0" y="63.8" width="10" height="15.6" fill="#c00"/>
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@@ -1208,46 +1240,40 @@ alegerea stopului:
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<rect x="509.0" y="136.6" width="10" height="7.8" fill="#c00"/>
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<rect x="110.0" y="412.0" width="10" height="39.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="129.0" y="416.0" width="10" height="35.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="148.0" y="410.4" width="10" height="40.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="167.0" y="414.4" width="10" height="36.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="186.0" y="418.4" width="10" height="32.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="205.0" y="412.8" width="10" height="38.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="224.0" y="416.8" width="10" height="34.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="243.0" y="411.2" width="10" height="39.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="262.0" y="415.2" width="10" height="35.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="281.0" y="393.7" width="10" height="57.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="300.0" y="413.6" width="10" height="37.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="319.0" y="417.6" width="10" height="33.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="338.0" y="389.0" width="10" height="62.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="357.0" y="384.2" width="10" height="66.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="376.0" y="381.0" width="10" height="70.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="395.0" y="387.4" width="10" height="63.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="414.0" y="418.4" width="10" height="32.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="433.0" y="412.8" width="10" height="38.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="452.0" y="416.8" width="10" height="34.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="471.0" y="411.2" width="10" height="39.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="490.0" y="415.2" width="10" height="35.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="509.0" y="419.2" width="10" height="31.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="528.0" y="413.6" width="10" height="37.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<text x="24" y="375.0" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="521.4" x2="686" y2="521.4" stroke="#888"/>
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<rect x="53.0" y="489.5" width="10" height="31.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="72.0" y="484.0" width="10" height="37.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="91.0" y="487.9" width="10" height="33.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="110.0" y="482.4" width="10" height="39.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="129.0" y="486.4" width="10" height="35.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="148.0" y="480.8" width="10" height="40.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="167.0" y="484.8" width="10" height="36.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="186.0" y="488.7" width="10" height="32.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="205.0" y="483.2" width="10" height="38.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="224.0" y="487.1" width="10" height="34.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="243.0" y="481.6" width="10" height="39.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="262.0" y="485.6" width="10" height="35.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="281.0" y="464.1" width="10" height="57.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="300.0" y="484.0" width="10" height="37.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="319.0" y="487.9" width="10" height="33.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="338.0" y="459.3" width="10" height="62.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="357.0" y="454.5" width="10" height="66.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="376.0" y="451.4" width="10" height="70.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="395.0" y="457.7" width="10" height="63.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="414.0" y="488.7" width="10" height="32.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="433.0" y="483.2" width="10" height="38.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="452.0" y="487.1" width="10" height="34.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="471.0" y="481.6" width="10" height="39.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="490.0" y="485.6" width="10" height="35.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<text x="24" y="445.4" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||||
<text x="286.0" y="283.0" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy hammer — primul semnal</text>
|
||||
<text x="381.0" y="262.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">al doilea semnal, acesta merge</text>
|
||||
<text x="495.0" y="111.4" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">7 săptămâni de urcare</text>
|
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<polygon points="277.0,347.1 268.1,346.1 272.5,339.4" fill="#b06000"/>
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<text x="233.0" y="318.1" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">low-ul hammer-ului: 217.02;</text>
|
||||
<text x="233.0" y="332.1" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">stopul pus sub el a fost luat</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="481" fill="#555">Ale lui: 217.02, 214.25 și cele 7 săptămâni de după al doilea semnal; restul barelor e al meu.</text>
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||||
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<polygon points="343.0,358.4 347.0,366.4 339.0,366.4" fill="#c00"/>
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<text x="343.0" y="402.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">stopul pus sub 217.02</text>
|
||||
<text x="343.0" y="416.4" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">a fost luat aici</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="551" fill="#555">Ale lui: 217.02, 214.25 și cele 7 săptămâni de după al doilea semnal; restul barelor e al meu.</text>
|
||||
</svg>
|
||||
|
||||
„Uite, buy hammer-ul ăsta n-a mers, de exemplu. Acum depinde unde aveai stop
|
||||
@@ -1333,7 +1359,10 @@ lui).
|
||||
|
||||
**Ce rămâne neclar în sursă**, fără să inventez o rezolvare: eticheta TP2 e
|
||||
rostită neinteligibil („bit, bich, TPU normal"), iar lămurirea o dă doar
|
||||
indirect, prin explicația cu media; și litera I din MICIS are două justificări
|
||||
indirect, prin explicația cu media — nu spune care dintre ținte se recalculează
|
||||
pe prețul mediu, deci „TP2 sub TP1" rămâne lectura mea, marcată ca atare pe
|
||||
diagrame; cifra de 56% nu se verifică pe nivelurile rostite în același exemplu;
|
||||
fraza despre cât stai pe weekly („3 din păie de stat") e neinteligibilă; și litera I din MICIS are două justificări
|
||||
în același paragraf (instituțional și investiții), autorul recunoscând că nu
|
||||
mai ține minte.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -108,15 +108,15 @@ schimbe cifrele de la o secțiune la alta.</p>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">DHRT, tot trade-ul — HS răsturnat (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="423.5" y="215.6" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">umărul drept</text>
|
||||
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<text x="30" y="323.0" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
|
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<text x="30.0" y="323.0" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
|
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<line x1="24.0" y1="209.9" x2="686" y2="209.9" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="203.9" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 65.00</text>
|
||||
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<line x1="24.0" y1="231.9" x2="686" y2="231.9" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="225.9" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">linia gâtului 63.00</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="110.9" x2="686" y2="110.9" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="104.9" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = proiecția gâtului</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="110.9" x2="686" y2="110.9" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30.0" y="104.9" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = proiecția gâtului</text>
|
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<line x1="24.0" y1="90.8" x2="686" y2="90.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="84.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP1 75.83 = distanța stopului</text>
|
||||
<polyline points="343.0,257.8 358.0,265.8 373.0,271.6 388.0,275.1 403.0,276.8 418.0,276.8 433.0,276.1 448.0,275.2 463.0,275.0 478.0,275.9 493.0,277.2 508.0,279.3 523.0,280.9 538.0,279.8 553.0,278.2 568.0,274.6 583.0,268.8 598.0,260.6 613.0,250.7 628.0,239.3 643.0,229.5 658.0,219.9 673.0,210.2 688.0,200.8" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<line x1="58.0" y1="117.5" x2="58.0" y2="148.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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@@ -254,7 +254,7 @@ schimbe cifrele de la o secțiune la alta.</p>
|
||||
<text x="313.0" y="366.9" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">capul</text>
|
||||
<text x="523.0" y="309.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji</text>
|
||||
<text x="538.0" y="157.7" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji = trigger</text>
|
||||
<text x="568.0" y="268.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">retest</text>
|
||||
<text x="568.0" y="268.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">pullback la nivelul de breakout</text>
|
||||
<text x="685.0" y="65.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">apoi trail</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="479" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. Geometria e a cursului; prețurile și R-urile sunt ale mele.</text>
|
||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
@@ -264,11 +264,15 @@ breakout; stopul stă în treimea de jos dintre cap și nivelul umărului; prima
|
||||
țintă e la distanța stopului.</strong></p>
|
||||
<p>De ce cifrele din desen: capul la 52.00, umerii la 58.50, deci H = 6.50.
|
||||
Treimea de jos începe la 52.00 + 6.50/3 = <strong>54.17</strong> — asta e cea mai sus la care
|
||||
ai voie să pui stopul (derivare a mea pe exemplul meu, nu un preț rostit în
|
||||
ai voie să pui stopul, adică riscul cel mai mic permis, nu stopul „cel mai
|
||||
strâns" în vreun alt sens (derivare a mea pe exemplul meu, nu un preț rostit în
|
||||
lecție). Intrarea la close-ul candelei de breakout, 65.00, pune R la 10.83, adică
|
||||
<strong>16,7% din preț</strong>. Nu e o greșeală de desen: așa ies stopurile la strategia
|
||||
asta, și de aceea secțiunea de position sizing contează mai mult decât la
|
||||
celelalte.</p>
|
||||
<strong>16,7% din preț</strong>. Atenție de unde vine procentul: din candela de breakout pe
|
||||
care am desenat-o eu, un marubozu de 6.30 care împinge close-ul la 65.00. Cu un
|
||||
trigger buy doji mic, cum e exemplul din lecție, intrarea ar cădea aproape de
|
||||
vârful consolidării și R-ul ar fi în jur de 5.8, nu 10.83. Stopurile ies oricum
|
||||
mari la strategia asta — de aceea secțiunea de position sizing contează mai mult
|
||||
decât la celelalte — dar cifra de 16,7% e a desenului, nu a strategiei.</p>
|
||||
<h2 id="pasul-1-gasesti-un-hs-rasturnat-si-ii-ceri-un-nivel-sub-cap-sau-sub-umar-m">Pasul 1 — Găsești un HS răsturnat și îi ceri un nivel sub cap sau sub umăr (M)</h2>
|
||||
<p>Deschizi graficul și cauți un v-bottom cu trei minime: umăr stâng, un cap mai
|
||||
jos, un umăr drept înapoi la nivelul primului. Apoi — și aici e tot filtrul —
|
||||
@@ -290,10 +294,10 @@ un pattern care nu e perfect."</p>
|
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 1, DA — capul în suport, umărul drept pe pivot</text>
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<text x="405.5" y="66.0" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">umărul drept, pullback pe pivot</text>
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<text x="30" y="249.6" fill="#b06000">suport monthly 36.00</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="193.6" fill="#6a3d9a">pivot monthly 40.00</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="249.6" fill="#b06000">suport monthly 36.00</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="199.6" x2="686" y2="199.6" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30.0" y="193.6" fill="#6a3d9a">pivot monthly 40.00</text>
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<text x="591" y="173" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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@@ -426,7 +430,7 @@ volumul scade la fiecare picior, deci exact cazul în care nu intri.</p>
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 1, NU — triple bottom la al 4-lea test</text>
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<text x="390.5" y="173.0" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">breakdown, nu breakout</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="236.0" x2="686" y2="236.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="230.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">baza testată de 3 ori: 31.00</text>
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<text x="520" y="216" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
|
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@@ -537,8 +541,8 @@ să închidă peste doji-ul de dedesubt.</p>
|
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 2, DA — trigger valid din umărul drept</text>
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<text x="229.5" y="152.6" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">umărul drept: 11 bare de consolidare</text>
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<text x="30" y="159.6" fill="#6a3d9a">vârful consolidării 63.30</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="165.6" x2="686" y2="165.6" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30.0" y="159.6" fill="#6a3d9a">vârful consolidării 63.30</text>
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<polyline points="552.0,215.1 578.0,206.5 604.0,197.7 630.0,188.9" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="636" y="183" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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<line x1="58.0" y1="292.0" x2="58.0" y2="320.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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@@ -724,13 +728,18 @@ prețul încă nu e acolo, dar e pe drum încet […] să te ții să facă new
|
||||
<p>Cu alte cuvinte: volumul rupe înaintea prețului. Dacă volumul face minime tot
|
||||
mai joase în timp ce prețul încă ține consolidarea, ai un candidat de short, nu
|
||||
de long — oricât de frumos arată patternul.</p>
|
||||
<p>Regula se citește pe o <strong>histogramă cu semn</strong> (on balance volume sau o
|
||||
histogramă de volum instituțional), nu pe barele brute de volum: „sub swing
|
||||
low-ul de aici" presupune o linie de zero și minime care se pot compara între
|
||||
ele. De aceea panoul de jos al diagramei următoare e desenat altfel decât cel de
|
||||
la trigger-ul valid — acolo barele brute ajung, aici nu.</p>
|
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<!--SVG:pas2_nu-->
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 373" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 2, NU — breakout de preț fără breakout de volum</text>
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<text x="229.5" y="76.0" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">aceeași consolidare de 11 bare</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="148.8" fill="#c00">baza 58.60</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="154.8" x2="686" y2="154.8" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30.0" y="148.8" fill="#c00">baza 58.60</text>
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<polyline points="552.0,134.3 578.0,130.8 604.0,130.1 630.0,132.2" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="636" y="126" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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<line x1="58.0" y1="199.6" x2="58.0" y2="224.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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@@ -779,36 +788,37 @@ de long — oricât de frumos arată patternul.</p>
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<rect x="208.5" y="288.7" width="11" height="42.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="260.5" y="277.5" width="11" height="53.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="286.5" y="281.6" width="11" height="49.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="416.5" y="300.0" width="11" height="30.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="624.5" y="286.7" width="11" height="44.1" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<text x="24" y="244.8" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="290.8" x2="686" y2="290.8" stroke="#888"/>
|
||||
<text x="682" y="286.8" fill="#888" text-anchor="end">0</text>
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<rect x="52.5" y="279.0" width="11" height="11.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="78.5" y="274.3" width="11" height="16.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="104.5" y="269.6" width="11" height="21.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="130.5" y="262.6" width="11" height="28.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="156.5" y="255.5" width="11" height="35.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="182.5" y="264.9" width="11" height="25.9" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="208.5" y="272.0" width="11" height="18.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="234.5" y="283.7" width="11" height="7.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="260.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="0.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="286.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="9.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="312.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="2.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="338.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="4.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="364.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="14.1" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="390.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="7.1" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="416.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="9.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="442.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="18.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="468.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="11.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="494.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="16.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="520.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="7.1" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="546.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="23.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="572.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="30.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="598.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="35.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="624.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="40.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="244.8" fill="#555">histogramă de volum, cu semn (stil on balance volume)</text>
|
||||
<text x="500.0" y="200.8" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji</text>
|
||||
<text x="526.0" y="50.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">închide peste consolidare, dar volumul e praf</text>
|
||||
<text x="370.0" y="196.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">volumul face minime tot mai joase</text>
|
||||
<text x="526.0" y="50.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">închide peste consolidare, dar volumul e deja sub zero</text>
|
||||
<text x="344.0" y="213.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">histograma rupe sub propriul swing low, de trei ori</text>
|
||||
<text x="642.0" y="238.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">breakdown</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="361" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Prețul arată identic cu diagrama de deasupra; diferă panoul de volum. False breakout.</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="361" fill="#555">Exemplu construit. Prețul e identic cu al diagramei de deasupra; panoul de jos e histograma cu semn, nu volumul brut.</text>
|
||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
<h2 id="pasul-3-stopul-o-treime-din-inaltimea-capumar-drept-primul-p">Pasul 3 — Stopul: o treime din înălțimea cap–umăr drept (primul P)</h2>
|
||||
<p>Măsori două lucruri și împarți la trei. Întâi, înălțimea H: de la low-ul capului
|
||||
@@ -835,14 +845,14 @@ treime, de la bază la vârf o treime […] 1x3 din înălțimea cap–umăr dre
|
||||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 310" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 3, stopul — H de la cap la umărul drept, apoi o treime</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="177.2" x2="686" y2="177.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="177.2" x2="686" y2="177.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="171.2" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">umăr drept 58.50</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="261.7" x2="686" y2="261.7" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="255.7" fill="#6a3d9a">cap 52.00 — baza lui H</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="233.5" x2="686" y2="233.5" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="672" y="227.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL minim 54.17 = cap + H/3</text>
|
||||
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||||
<text x="30" y="86.7" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00; distanța până la SL e R</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="261.7" x2="686" y2="261.7" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30.0" y="255.7" fill="#6a3d9a">cap 52.00 — baza lui H</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="233.5" x2="686" y2="233.5" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="672" y="227.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL cel mai sus permis: 54.17 = cap + H/3</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="92.7" x2="686" y2="92.7" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
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<text x="30.0" y="86.7" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00; distanța până la SL e R</text>
|
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<rect x="53.0" y="144.7" width="10" height="19.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="78.0" y1="160.3" x2="78.0" y2="177.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||||
@@ -922,21 +932,27 @@ e stopul în jos.</p>
|
||||
lecția, și e importantă: <strong>nu măsori de la extremele patternului, ci din
|
||||
interiorul gâtului.</strong> „Nu e bine să măsor de la low-ul de aici, că măsori
|
||||
distanța de stop loss și target de profit; măsoară din interiorul gâtului pe
|
||||
aici, iau un average." Pe diagrama de mai jos linia gâtului e media celor două
|
||||
maxime, nu cel mai sus dintre ele.</p>
|
||||
aici, iau un average." Pe diagrama de mai jos linia gâtului e trasată <strong>din
|
||||
interiorul gâtului</strong>, la 63.00 — adică sub cele mai de sus vârfuri ale zonei,
|
||||
care ating 63.30. Nu e media vârfurilor, și nu există o formulă rostită care să
|
||||
o reproducă: „un average" din interiorul gâtului e tot ce spune lecția. Când
|
||||
reconstruiești tu patternul, nivelul ăsta e o alegere a ta de câteva zecimi, iar
|
||||
TP2 se mișcă exact cu ea.</p>
|
||||
<!--SVG:pas4_tinte-->
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 421" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 4, țintele — TP1 = R, TP2 = proiecția gâtului</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="346.8" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="216.8" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="240.8" fill="#6a3d9a">linia gâtului 63.00, media celor două vârfuri</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="108.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = gât + înălțimea HS</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="92.8" x2="686" y2="92.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="86.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP1 75.83 = intrare + R</text>
|
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<line x1="24.0" y1="378.8" x2="686" y2="378.8" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="372.8" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">capul 52.00 = baza înălțimii HS</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="352.8" x2="686" y2="352.8" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30.0" y="346.8" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
|
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<text x="30.0" y="216.8" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00</text>
|
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|
||||
<text x="30.0" y="240.8" fill="#6a3d9a">linia gâtului 63.00, din interiorul gâtului (nu de la vârfuri)</text>
|
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|
||||
<text x="30.0" y="108.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = gât + înălțimea HS (63.00 − 52.00 = 11.00)</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="92.8" x2="686" y2="92.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30.0" y="86.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP1 75.83 = intrare + R</text>
|
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<polyline points="514.0,267.3 538.0,254.8 562.0,244.2 586.0,233.7 610.0,223.1 634.0,212.9" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="640" y="207" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
|
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<line x1="58.0" y1="363.2" x2="58.0" y2="378.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
@@ -996,8 +1012,9 @@ maxime, nu cel mai sus dintre ele.</p>
|
||||
Autorul o spune de trei ori, cu exemple: „În unele situații s-ar putea ca, de
|
||||
fapt, TP2, conform HS răsturnat cum am zis eu aici, să fie un pic mai sus decât
|
||||
TP1 […] sau să fie mai jos. Noi măsurând așa, o să constatați că de fapt TP1 e
|
||||
mai mare decât TP2." Și, în cele mai multe cazuri, se suprapun: „o să cădeți pe
|
||||
TP1 egal cu [stopul], ar putea să fie exact TP2." De ce depinde: „de mărimea
|
||||
mai mare decât TP2." Și uneori coincid: „o să cădeți pe TP1 egal cu [stopul],
|
||||
<strong>ar putea</strong> să fie exact TP2." („Ar putea" e al lui — e o posibilitate, nu o
|
||||
frecvență.) De ce depinde: „de mărimea
|
||||
HS-ului, de time frame și așa mai departe."</p>
|
||||
<p>Pe exemplul construit, TP2 iese la 74.00 și TP1 la 75.83 — TP1 peste TP2, cu
|
||||
mai puțin de 2 unități între ele. Practic înseamnă: <strong>nu alegi între ele, le
|
||||
@@ -1035,7 +1052,8 @@ ceea ce e exact rezultatul pe care îl apără în citatul de mai sus.</p>
|
||||
califici contul foarte repede […] sau poți să-l [arzi] în două tranzacții, dacă
|
||||
intri cu poziții mari."</p>
|
||||
<p><strong>Completare proprie, legată de pasul 3:</strong> cu R la 16,7% din preț (cazul din
|
||||
exemplul construit), 1% risc pe un cont de 10.000 înseamnă 100 de dolari risc,
|
||||
exemplul construit, unde candela de breakout e mare — vezi rezerva de la pasul
|
||||
3), 1% risc pe un cont de 10.000 înseamnă 100 de dolari risc,
|
||||
deci o poziție de circa 600 de dolari — mai puțin de 10 acțiuni la 65. Nu e o
|
||||
limitare a strategiei, e aritmetica stopurilor mari. Dacă vrei poziții mai mari
|
||||
cu același risc, ai nevoie de patternul pe un timeframe mai mic, unde H e mai
|
||||
@@ -1052,14 +1070,16 @@ retest."</p>
|
||||
consolidare, că asta e locul crimei. Poți să retestezi și până jos, dar deja
|
||||
dacă retestează până jos, e periculos să facă break-down."</p>
|
||||
<!--SVG:retest_da-->
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 519" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 511" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Retestul, DA — se oprește în jumătatea de sus</text>
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<rect x="47.0" y="249.2" width="292.0" height="126.0" fill="#6a3d9a" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="47.0" y="244.2" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">consolidarea</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="257.2" x2="686" y2="257.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<rect x="47.0" y="257.2" width="292.0" height="110.0" fill="#6a3d9a" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="47.0" y="252.2" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">consolidarea</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="257.2" x2="686" y2="257.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="251.2" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">vârful consolidării 53.70 = locul crimei</text>
|
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<line x1="24" y1="312.2" x2="686" y2="312.2" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="306.2" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">jumătatea consolidării 51.20</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="312.2" x2="686" y2="312.2" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="306.2" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">jumătatea consolidării 51.20 = (53.70 + 48.70) / 2</text>
|
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<line x1="24.0" y1="367.2" x2="686" y2="367.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="361.2" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">baza consolidării 48.70</text>
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<rect x="52.0" y="338.6" width="12" height="22.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="88.0" y1="305.6" x2="88.0" y2="345.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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@@ -1098,31 +1118,31 @@ dacă retestează până jos, e periculos să facă break-down."</p>
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<rect x="592.0" y="74.6" width="12" height="33.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<rect x="52.0" y="448.8" width="12" height="28.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="82.0" y="443.7" width="12" height="33.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="262.0" y="442.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="292.0" y="444.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="322.0" y="446.6" width="12" height="30.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="442.0" y="443.7" width="12" height="33.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="502.0" y="413.0" width="12" height="64.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="532.0" y="417.4" width="12" height="59.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="562.0" y="442.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="592.0" y="444.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<text x="24" y="401.2" fill="#555">volum</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="469.2" x2="686" y2="469.2" stroke="#888"/>
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<rect x="52.0" y="440.8" width="12" height="28.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="82.0" y="435.7" width="12" height="33.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="112.0" y="437.8" width="12" height="31.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="142.0" y="440.0" width="12" height="29.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="172.0" y="434.9" width="12" height="34.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="202.0" y="437.1" width="12" height="32.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="232.0" y="439.3" width="12" height="29.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="262.0" y="434.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="292.0" y="436.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="322.0" y="438.6" width="12" height="30.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="352.0" y="399.2" width="12" height="70.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="382.0" y="447.3" width="12" height="21.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="412.0" y="450.2" width="12" height="19.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="442.0" y="451.7" width="12" height="17.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="472.0" y="448.8" width="12" height="20.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="502.0" y="405.0" width="12" height="64.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="532.0" y="409.4" width="12" height="59.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="562.0" y="434.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="592.0" y="436.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<text x="24" y="393.2" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||||
<text x="358.0" y="182.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">breakout</text>
|
||||
<text x="448.0" y="325.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">retest, se oprește peste jumătate</text>
|
||||
<text x="478.0" y="348.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji aici: a doua intrare</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="507" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Volum mic pe retest, mare pe repornire: nu vin vânzători noi.</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="499" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Volum mic pe retest, mare pe repornire: nu vin vânzători noi.</text>
|
||||
</svg></p>
|
||||
<p>Deci: retest până la jumătatea consolidării = normal, intri. Retest care trece
|
||||
sub jumătate și se apropie de bază = semn de avertizare; sub bază, ideea s-a
|
||||
@@ -1130,13 +1150,13 @@ inversat — „să cadă sub consolidare și atunci se shortează".</p>
|
||||
<!--SVG:retest_nu-->
|
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<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 387" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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||||
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Retestul, NU — trece sub jumătate și rupe baza</text>
|
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<text x="47.0" y="94.0" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">aceeași consolidare</text>
|
||||
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<rect x="47.0" y="107.0" width="292.0" height="75.0" fill="#6a3d9a" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="47.0" y="102.0" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">aceeași consolidare</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="107.0" x2="686" y2="107.0" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="101.0" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">vârful consolidării 53.70</text>
|
||||
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||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="144.5" x2="686" y2="144.5" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="138.5" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">jumătatea consolidării 51.20</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="182.0" x2="686" y2="182.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="182.0" x2="686" y2="182.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="176.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">baza 48.70</text>
|
||||
<line x1="58.0" y1="158.0" x2="58.0" y2="182.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="52.0" y="162.5" width="12" height="15.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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||||
@@ -1230,8 +1250,8 @@ Aproximativ la 51, adică în zona suportului."</p>
|
||||
<p><svg viewBox="0 0 700 456" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Varianta short — XLF, ascending wedge</text>
|
||||
<rect x="94.0" y="60.0" width="388.0" height="188.2" fill="#c00" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
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||||
<line x1="24" y1="295.5" x2="686" y2="295.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="289.5" fill="#1a5fb4">ținta rostită în lecție: 51</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="295.5" x2="686" y2="295.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30.0" y="289.5" fill="#1a5fb4">ținta rostită în lecție: 51</text>
|
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<polyline points="495.0,152.0 518.0,150.7 541.0,152.3 564.0,156.9 587.0,164.7 610.0,170.9 633.0,173.8" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="639" y="168" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
|
||||
<line x1="58.0" y1="207.7" x2="58.0" y2="259.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||||
@@ -1488,6 +1508,6 @@ se poate reține din ele:</p>
|
||||
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rising-wedge.asp">Investopedia — Rising Wedge</a></li>
|
||||
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp">Investopedia — Short Squeeze</a></li>
|
||||
<li><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/onbalancevolume.asp">Investopedia — On-Balance Volume (OBV)</a></li>
|
||||
</ul><nav class="pager"><a class="prev" href="04_strategia_7_micis.html">← 04. #4 — Strategia 7: MICIS (buy doji weekly și monthly pe acțiuni individuale)</a><a class="up" href="../index.html#06_MODUL_5">↑ index</a></nav>
|
||||
</ul><nav class="pager"><a class="prev" href="04_strategia_7_micis.html">← 04. #4 — Strategia 7: MICIS (buy doji weekly și monthly pe acțiuni individuale)</a><a class="up" href="../index.html#06_MODUL_5">↑ index</a><a class="next" href="06_workshop_5_copilul_interior.html">06. #6 — Workshop 5: Vindecarea copilului interior →</a></nav>
|
||||
</body>
|
||||
</html>
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -80,15 +80,15 @@ schimbe cifrele de la o secțiune la alta.
|
||||
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">DHRT, tot trade-ul — HS răsturnat (exemplu construit)</text>
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<text x="423.5" y="215.6" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">umărul drept</text>
|
||||
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||||
<text x="30" y="323.0" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
|
||||
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<line x1="24.0" y1="329.0" x2="686" y2="329.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30.0" y="323.0" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="209.9" x2="686" y2="209.9" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="203.9" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="end">intrare 65.00</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="231.9" x2="686" y2="231.9" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="231.9" x2="686" y2="231.9" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="225.9" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">linia gâtului 63.00</text>
|
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<text x="30" y="104.9" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = proiecția gâtului</text>
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||||
<line x1="24" y1="90.8" x2="686" y2="90.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="110.9" x2="686" y2="110.9" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30.0" y="104.9" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = proiecția gâtului</text>
|
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<line x1="24.0" y1="90.8" x2="686" y2="90.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="84.8" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end">TP1 75.83 = distanța stopului</text>
|
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<polyline points="343.0,257.8 358.0,265.8 373.0,271.6 388.0,275.1 403.0,276.8 418.0,276.8 433.0,276.1 448.0,275.2 463.0,275.0 478.0,275.9 493.0,277.2 508.0,279.3 523.0,280.9 538.0,279.8 553.0,278.2 568.0,274.6 583.0,268.8 598.0,260.6 613.0,250.7 628.0,239.3 643.0,229.5 658.0,219.9 673.0,210.2 688.0,200.8" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<line x1="58.0" y1="117.5" x2="58.0" y2="148.3" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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@@ -226,7 +226,7 @@ schimbe cifrele de la o secțiune la alta.
|
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<text x="313.0" y="366.9" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">capul</text>
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<text x="523.0" y="309.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji</text>
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<text x="538.0" y="157.7" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">buy doji = trigger</text>
|
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<text x="568.0" y="268.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">retest</text>
|
||||
<text x="568.0" y="268.4" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">pullback la nivelul de breakout</text>
|
||||
<text x="685.0" y="65.4" fill="#1a5fb4" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">apoi trail</text>
|
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<text x="24" y="479" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker), la scară. Geometria e a cursului; prețurile și R-urile sunt ale mele.</text>
|
||||
</svg>
|
||||
@@ -238,11 +238,15 @@ breakout; stopul stă în treimea de jos dintre cap și nivelul umărului; prima
|
||||
|
||||
De ce cifrele din desen: capul la 52.00, umerii la 58.50, deci H = 6.50.
|
||||
Treimea de jos începe la 52.00 + 6.50/3 = **54.17** — asta e cea mai sus la care
|
||||
ai voie să pui stopul (derivare a mea pe exemplul meu, nu un preț rostit în
|
||||
ai voie să pui stopul, adică riscul cel mai mic permis, nu stopul „cel mai
|
||||
strâns" în vreun alt sens (derivare a mea pe exemplul meu, nu un preț rostit în
|
||||
lecție). Intrarea la close-ul candelei de breakout, 65.00, pune R la 10.83, adică
|
||||
**16,7% din preț**. Nu e o greșeală de desen: așa ies stopurile la strategia
|
||||
asta, și de aceea secțiunea de position sizing contează mai mult decât la
|
||||
celelalte.
|
||||
**16,7% din preț**. Atenție de unde vine procentul: din candela de breakout pe
|
||||
care am desenat-o eu, un marubozu de 6.30 care împinge close-ul la 65.00. Cu un
|
||||
trigger buy doji mic, cum e exemplul din lecție, intrarea ar cădea aproape de
|
||||
vârful consolidării și R-ul ar fi în jur de 5.8, nu 10.83. Stopurile ies oricum
|
||||
mari la strategia asta — de aceea secțiunea de position sizing contează mai mult
|
||||
decât la celelalte — dar cifra de 16,7% e a desenului, nu a strategiei.
|
||||
|
||||
## Pasul 1 — Găsești un HS răsturnat și îi ceri un nivel sub cap sau sub umăr (M)
|
||||
Deschizi graficul și cauți un v-bottom cu trei minime: umăr stâng, un cap mai
|
||||
@@ -268,10 +272,10 @@ un pattern care nu e perfect."
|
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 1, DA — capul în suport, umărul drept pe pivot</text>
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<text x="405.5" y="66.0" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">umărul drept, pullback pe pivot</text>
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<text x="30" y="249.6" fill="#b06000">suport monthly 36.00</text>
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<text x="30" y="193.6" fill="#6a3d9a">pivot monthly 40.00</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="249.6" fill="#b06000">suport monthly 36.00</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="199.6" x2="686" y2="199.6" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30.0" y="193.6" fill="#6a3d9a">pivot monthly 40.00</text>
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<polyline points="381.0,174.9 398.0,178.1 415.0,181.0 432.0,183.6 449.0,185.9 466.0,187.2 483.0,187.1 500.0,186.9 517.0,187.6 534.0,186.7 551.0,185.3 568.0,182.4 585.0,178.9" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="591" y="173" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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@@ -410,7 +414,7 @@ volumul scade la fiecare picior, deci exact cazul în care nu intri.
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 1, NU — triple bottom la al 4-lea test</text>
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<text x="390.5" y="173.0" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">breakdown, nu breakout</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="236.0" x2="686" y2="236.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="230.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">baza testată de 3 ori: 31.00</text>
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<polyline points="419.0,194.9 438.0,201.9 457.0,207.0 476.0,211.8 495.0,216.8 514.0,222.2" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="520" y="216" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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||||
@@ -526,8 +530,8 @@ să închidă peste doji-ul de dedesubt.
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 2, DA — trigger valid din umărul drept</text>
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<text x="229.5" y="152.6" fill="#188a3e" style="font-weight:bold">umărul drept: 11 bare de consolidare</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="165.6" x2="686" y2="165.6" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="159.6" fill="#6a3d9a">vârful consolidării 63.30</text>
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<text x="30.0" y="159.6" fill="#6a3d9a">vârful consolidării 63.30</text>
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<polyline points="552.0,215.1 578.0,206.5 604.0,197.7 630.0,188.9" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="636" y="183" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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<line x1="58.0" y1="292.0" x2="58.0" y2="320.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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@@ -727,13 +731,19 @@ Cu alte cuvinte: volumul rupe înaintea prețului. Dacă volumul face minime tot
|
||||
mai joase în timp ce prețul încă ține consolidarea, ai un candidat de short, nu
|
||||
de long — oricât de frumos arată patternul.
|
||||
|
||||
Regula se citește pe o **histogramă cu semn** (on balance volume sau o
|
||||
histogramă de volum instituțional), nu pe barele brute de volum: „sub swing
|
||||
low-ul de aici" presupune o linie de zero și minime care se pot compara între
|
||||
ele. De aceea panoul de jos al diagramei următoare e desenat altfel decât cel de
|
||||
la trigger-ul valid — acolo barele brute ajung, aici nu.
|
||||
|
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<!--SVG:pas2_nu-->
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<svg viewBox="0 0 700 373" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 2, NU — breakout de preț fără breakout de volum</text>
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<text x="229.5" y="76.0" fill="#c00" style="font-weight:bold">aceeași consolidare de 11 bare</text>
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<text x="30" y="148.8" fill="#c00">baza 58.60</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="154.8" x2="686" y2="154.8" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30.0" y="148.8" fill="#c00">baza 58.60</text>
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<polyline points="552.0,134.3 578.0,130.8 604.0,130.1 630.0,132.2" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="636" y="126" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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<line x1="58.0" y1="199.6" x2="58.0" y2="224.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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@@ -782,36 +792,37 @@ de long — oricât de frumos arată patternul.
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<line x1="630.0" y1="164.6" x2="630.0" y2="210.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="624.5" y="170.2" width="11" height="35.0" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="24" y1="330.8" x2="686" y2="330.8" stroke="#888"/>
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<rect x="52.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="40.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="78.5" y="283.6" width="11" height="47.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="104.5" y="286.7" width="11" height="44.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="130.5" y="289.8" width="11" height="41.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="182.5" y="285.7" width="11" height="45.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="208.5" y="288.7" width="11" height="42.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="234.5" y="281.6" width="11" height="49.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="260.5" y="277.5" width="11" height="53.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="286.5" y="281.6" width="11" height="49.2" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="312.5" y="289.8" width="11" height="41.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="338.5" y="291.8" width="11" height="39.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="390.5" y="298.0" width="11" height="32.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="416.5" y="300.0" width="11" height="30.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="442.5" y="302.1" width="11" height="28.7" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="468.5" y="304.1" width="11" height="26.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="494.5" y="306.2" width="11" height="24.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="520.5" y="293.9" width="11" height="36.9" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="546.5" y="275.4" width="11" height="55.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="572.5" y="263.1" width="11" height="67.7" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="598.5" y="254.9" width="11" height="75.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="624.5" y="286.7" width="11" height="44.1" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<text x="24" y="244.8" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="290.8" x2="686" y2="290.8" stroke="#888"/>
|
||||
<text x="682" y="286.8" fill="#888" text-anchor="end">0</text>
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<rect x="52.5" y="279.0" width="11" height="11.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="78.5" y="274.3" width="11" height="16.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="104.5" y="269.6" width="11" height="21.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="130.5" y="262.6" width="11" height="28.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="156.5" y="255.5" width="11" height="35.3" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="182.5" y="264.9" width="11" height="25.9" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="208.5" y="272.0" width="11" height="18.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="234.5" y="283.7" width="11" height="7.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="260.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="0.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="286.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="9.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="312.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="2.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="364.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="14.1" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="390.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="7.1" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="416.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="9.4" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="442.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="18.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="468.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="11.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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<rect x="494.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="16.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="520.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="7.1" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="546.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="23.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="572.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="30.6" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="598.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="35.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="624.5" y="290.8" width="11" height="40.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="244.8" fill="#555">histogramă de volum, cu semn (stil on balance volume)</text>
|
||||
<text x="500.0" y="200.8" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji</text>
|
||||
<text x="526.0" y="50.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">închide peste consolidare, dar volumul e praf</text>
|
||||
<text x="370.0" y="196.6" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">volumul face minime tot mai joase</text>
|
||||
<text x="526.0" y="50.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">închide peste consolidare, dar volumul e deja sub zero</text>
|
||||
<text x="344.0" y="213.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">histograma rupe sub propriul swing low, de trei ori</text>
|
||||
<text x="642.0" y="238.8" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end" style="font-weight:bold">breakdown</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="361" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Prețul arată identic cu diagrama de deasupra; diferă panoul de volum. False breakout.</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="361" fill="#555">Exemplu construit. Prețul e identic cu al diagramei de deasupra; panoul de jos e histograma cu semn, nu volumul brut.</text>
|
||||
</svg>
|
||||
|
||||
## Pasul 3 — Stopul: o treime din înălțimea cap–umăr drept (primul P)
|
||||
@@ -841,14 +852,14 @@ Două consecințe practice, amândouă spuse de el:
|
||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 700 310" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 3, stopul — H de la cap la umărul drept, apoi o treime</text>
|
||||
<rect x="208.0" y="233.5" width="400.0" height="28.2" fill="#c00" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
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||||
<line x1="24" y1="177.2" x2="686" y2="177.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="177.2" x2="686" y2="177.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="672" y="171.2" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">umăr drept 58.50</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="261.7" x2="686" y2="261.7" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="255.7" fill="#6a3d9a">cap 52.00 — baza lui H</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="233.5" x2="686" y2="233.5" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="672" y="227.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL minim 54.17 = cap + H/3</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="92.7" x2="686" y2="92.7" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="86.7" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00; distanța până la SL e R</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="261.7" x2="686" y2="261.7" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30.0" y="255.7" fill="#6a3d9a">cap 52.00 — baza lui H</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="233.5" x2="686" y2="233.5" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="672" y="227.5" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">SL cel mai sus permis: 54.17 = cap + H/3</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="92.7" x2="686" y2="92.7" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30.0" y="86.7" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00; distanța până la SL e R</text>
|
||||
<line x1="58.0" y1="140.8" x2="58.0" y2="168.1" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="53.0" y="144.7" width="10" height="19.5" fill="#c00"/>
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<line x1="78.0" y1="160.3" x2="78.0" y2="177.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||||
@@ -932,22 +943,28 @@ e stopul în jos.
|
||||
lecția, și e importantă: **nu măsori de la extremele patternului, ci din
|
||||
interiorul gâtului.** „Nu e bine să măsor de la low-ul de aici, că măsori
|
||||
distanța de stop loss și target de profit; măsoară din interiorul gâtului pe
|
||||
aici, iau un average." Pe diagrama de mai jos linia gâtului e media celor două
|
||||
maxime, nu cel mai sus dintre ele.
|
||||
aici, iau un average." Pe diagrama de mai jos linia gâtului e trasată **din
|
||||
interiorul gâtului**, la 63.00 — adică sub cele mai de sus vârfuri ale zonei,
|
||||
care ating 63.30. Nu e media vârfurilor, și nu există o formulă rostită care să
|
||||
o reproducă: „un average" din interiorul gâtului e tot ce spune lecția. Când
|
||||
reconstruiești tu patternul, nivelul ăsta e o alegere a ta de câteva zecimi, iar
|
||||
TP2 se mișcă exact cu ea.
|
||||
|
||||
<!--SVG:pas4_tinte-->
|
||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 700 421" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Pasul 4, țintele — TP1 = R, TP2 = proiecția gâtului</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="352.8" x2="686" y2="352.8" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="346.8" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="222.8" x2="686" y2="222.8" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="216.8" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="246.8" x2="686" y2="246.8" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="240.8" fill="#6a3d9a">linia gâtului 63.00, media celor două vârfuri</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="114.8" x2="686" y2="114.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="108.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = gât + înălțimea HS</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="92.8" x2="686" y2="92.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30" y="86.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP1 75.83 = intrare + R</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="378.8" x2="686" y2="378.8" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="672" y="372.8" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">capul 52.00 = baza înălțimii HS</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="352.8" x2="686" y2="352.8" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30.0" y="346.8" fill="#c00">SL 54.17</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="222.8" x2="686" y2="222.8" stroke="#188a3e" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30.0" y="216.8" fill="#188a3e">intrare 65.00</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="246.8" x2="686" y2="246.8" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30.0" y="240.8" fill="#6a3d9a">linia gâtului 63.00, din interiorul gâtului (nu de la vârfuri)</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="114.8" x2="686" y2="114.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30.0" y="108.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP2 74.00 = gât + înălțimea HS (63.00 − 52.00 = 11.00)</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="92.8" x2="686" y2="92.8" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="30.0" y="86.8" fill="#1a5fb4">TP1 75.83 = intrare + R</text>
|
||||
<polyline points="514.0,267.3 538.0,254.8 562.0,244.2 586.0,233.7 610.0,223.1 634.0,212.9" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
|
||||
<text x="640" y="207" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
|
||||
<line x1="58.0" y1="363.2" x2="58.0" y2="378.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||||
@@ -1008,8 +1025,9 @@ maxime, nu cel mai sus dintre ele.
|
||||
Autorul o spune de trei ori, cu exemple: „În unele situații s-ar putea ca, de
|
||||
fapt, TP2, conform HS răsturnat cum am zis eu aici, să fie un pic mai sus decât
|
||||
TP1 […] sau să fie mai jos. Noi măsurând așa, o să constatați că de fapt TP1 e
|
||||
mai mare decât TP2." Și, în cele mai multe cazuri, se suprapun: „o să cădeți pe
|
||||
TP1 egal cu [stopul], ar putea să fie exact TP2." De ce depinde: „de mărimea
|
||||
mai mare decât TP2." Și uneori coincid: „o să cădeți pe TP1 egal cu [stopul],
|
||||
**ar putea** să fie exact TP2." („Ar putea" e al lui — e o posibilitate, nu o
|
||||
frecvență.) De ce depinde: „de mărimea
|
||||
HS-ului, de time frame și așa mai departe."
|
||||
|
||||
Pe exemplul construit, TP2 iese la 74.00 și TP1 la 75.83 — TP1 peste TP2, cu
|
||||
@@ -1054,7 +1072,8 @@ califici contul foarte repede […] sau poți să-l [arzi] în două tranzacții
|
||||
intri cu poziții mari."
|
||||
|
||||
**Completare proprie, legată de pasul 3:** cu R la 16,7% din preț (cazul din
|
||||
exemplul construit), 1% risc pe un cont de 10.000 înseamnă 100 de dolari risc,
|
||||
exemplul construit, unde candela de breakout e mare — vezi rezerva de la pasul
|
||||
3), 1% risc pe un cont de 10.000 înseamnă 100 de dolari risc,
|
||||
deci o poziție de circa 600 de dolari — mai puțin de 10 acțiuni la 65. Nu e o
|
||||
limitare a strategiei, e aritmetica stopurilor mari. Dacă vrei poziții mai mari
|
||||
cu același risc, ai nevoie de patternul pe un timeframe mai mic, unde H e mai
|
||||
@@ -1074,14 +1093,16 @@ consolidare, că asta e locul crimei. Poți să retestezi și până jos, dar de
|
||||
dacă retestează până jos, e periculos să facă break-down."
|
||||
|
||||
<!--SVG:retest_da-->
|
||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 700 519" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 700 511" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
|
||||
<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Retestul, DA — se oprește în jumătatea de sus</text>
|
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<rect x="47.0" y="249.2" width="292.0" height="126.0" fill="#6a3d9a" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="47.0" y="244.2" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">consolidarea</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="257.2" x2="686" y2="257.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<rect x="47.0" y="257.2" width="292.0" height="110.0" fill="#6a3d9a" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="47.0" y="252.2" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">consolidarea</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="257.2" x2="686" y2="257.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="251.2" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">vârful consolidării 53.70 = locul crimei</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="312.2" x2="686" y2="312.2" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="306.2" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">jumătatea consolidării 51.20</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="312.2" x2="686" y2="312.2" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="306.2" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">jumătatea consolidării 51.20 = (53.70 + 48.70) / 2</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="367.2" x2="686" y2="367.2" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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||||
<text x="672" y="361.2" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">baza consolidării 48.70</text>
|
||||
<line x1="58.0" y1="332.0" x2="58.0" y2="367.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="52.0" y="338.6" width="12" height="22.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="88.0" y1="305.6" x2="88.0" y2="345.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
|
||||
@@ -1120,31 +1141,31 @@ dacă retestează până jos, e periculos să facă break-down."
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<rect x="562.0" y="107.6" width="12" height="37.4" fill="#188a3e"/>
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||||
<line x1="598.0" y1="68.0" x2="598.0" y2="114.2" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
<rect x="592.0" y="74.6" width="12" height="33.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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<line x1="24" y1="477.2" x2="686" y2="477.2" stroke="#888"/>
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||||
<rect x="52.0" y="448.8" width="12" height="28.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="82.0" y="443.7" width="12" height="33.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="112.0" y="445.8" width="12" height="31.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="142.0" y="448.0" width="12" height="29.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="172.0" y="442.9" width="12" height="34.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="202.0" y="445.1" width="12" height="32.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="232.0" y="447.3" width="12" height="29.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="262.0" y="442.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="292.0" y="444.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="322.0" y="446.6" width="12" height="30.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="352.0" y="407.2" width="12" height="70.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="382.0" y="439.3" width="12" height="37.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="412.0" y="442.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="442.0" y="443.7" width="12" height="33.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="472.0" y="436.4" width="12" height="40.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="502.0" y="413.0" width="12" height="64.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="532.0" y="417.4" width="12" height="59.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="562.0" y="442.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="592.0" y="444.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="401.2" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||||
<line x1="24" y1="469.2" x2="686" y2="469.2" stroke="#888"/>
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||||
<rect x="52.0" y="440.8" width="12" height="28.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="82.0" y="435.7" width="12" height="33.5" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="112.0" y="437.8" width="12" height="31.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="142.0" y="440.0" width="12" height="29.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="172.0" y="434.9" width="12" height="34.3" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="202.0" y="437.1" width="12" height="32.1" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="232.0" y="439.3" width="12" height="29.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="262.0" y="434.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="292.0" y="436.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="322.0" y="438.6" width="12" height="30.6" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="352.0" y="399.2" width="12" height="70.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="382.0" y="447.3" width="12" height="21.9" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="412.0" y="450.2" width="12" height="19.0" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="442.0" y="451.7" width="12" height="17.5" fill="#c00" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="472.0" y="448.8" width="12" height="20.4" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="502.0" y="405.0" width="12" height="64.2" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="532.0" y="409.4" width="12" height="59.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
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||||
<rect x="562.0" y="434.2" width="12" height="35.0" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<rect x="592.0" y="436.4" width="12" height="32.8" fill="#188a3e" opacity="0.55"/>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="393.2" fill="#555">volum</text>
|
||||
<text x="358.0" y="182.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">breakout</text>
|
||||
<text x="448.0" y="325.8" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">retest, se oprește peste jumătate</text>
|
||||
<text x="478.0" y="348.2" fill="#188a3e" text-anchor="middle" style="font-weight:bold">doji aici: a doua intrare</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="507" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Volum mic pe retest, mare pe repornire: nu vin vânzători noi.</text>
|
||||
<text x="24" y="499" fill="#555">Exemplu construit (fără ticker). Volum mic pe retest, mare pe repornire: nu vin vânzători noi.</text>
|
||||
</svg>
|
||||
|
||||
Deci: retest până la jumătatea consolidării = normal, intri. Retest care trece
|
||||
@@ -1154,13 +1175,13 @@ inversat — „să cadă sub consolidare și atunci se shortează".
|
||||
<!--SVG:retest_nu-->
|
||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 700 387" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Retestul, NU — trece sub jumătate și rupe baza</text>
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<rect x="47.0" y="99.0" width="292.0" height="91.0" fill="#6a3d9a" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="47.0" y="94.0" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">aceeași consolidare</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="107.0" x2="686" y2="107.0" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<rect x="47.0" y="107.0" width="292.0" height="75.0" fill="#6a3d9a" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="47.0" y="102.0" fill="#6a3d9a" style="font-weight:bold">aceeași consolidare</text>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="107.0" x2="686" y2="107.0" stroke="#6a3d9a" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="101.0" fill="#6a3d9a" text-anchor="end">vârful consolidării 53.70</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="144.5" x2="686" y2="144.5" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="144.5" x2="686" y2="144.5" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="138.5" fill="#b06000" text-anchor="end">jumătatea consolidării 51.20</text>
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<line x1="24" y1="182.0" x2="686" y2="182.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<line x1="24.0" y1="182.0" x2="686" y2="182.0" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="672" y="176.0" fill="#c00" text-anchor="end">baza 48.70</text>
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<line x1="58.0" y1="158.0" x2="58.0" y2="182.0" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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<rect x="52.0" y="162.5" width="12" height="15.0" fill="#188a3e"/>
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@@ -1259,8 +1280,8 @@ Aproximativ la 51, adică în zona suportului."
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||||
<svg viewBox="0 0 700 456" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;font:12px sans-serif">
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<text x="24" y="60" fill="#333" style="font-weight:bold">Varianta short — XLF, ascending wedge</text>
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<rect x="94.0" y="60.0" width="388.0" height="188.2" fill="#c00" fill-opacity="0.08" stroke="#c00" stroke-width="1"/>
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<line x1="24" y1="295.5" x2="686" y2="295.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30" y="289.5" fill="#1a5fb4">ținta rostită în lecție: 51</text>
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||||
<line x1="24.0" y1="295.5" x2="686" y2="295.5" stroke="#1a5fb4" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="30.0" y="289.5" fill="#1a5fb4">ținta rostită în lecție: 51</text>
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||||
<polyline points="495.0,152.0 518.0,150.7 541.0,152.3 564.0,156.9 587.0,164.7 610.0,170.9 633.0,173.8" fill="none" stroke="#b06000" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
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<text x="639" y="168" fill="#b06000">SMA-20</text>
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||||
<line x1="58.0" y1="207.7" x2="58.0" y2="259.8" stroke="#1a1a1a" stroke-width="1.2"/>
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||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user